Fantasy Basketball Advice

Does Blake Griffin Have Shaquille O’Neal Disease?

ChrisVMay 22, 2012 by: ChrisV Category: Fantasy Basketball Strategy

During the last season, Blake Griffin scored 1,368 points with 717 rebounds, 54 steals and 48 blocks. Kevin Love scored 1,432 points with 734 rebounds, 47 steals and 28 blocks. Griffin threw in an extra 100 assists and Love provided an extra 100 three pointers, but essentially they were even in terms of production provided your math isn’t too precise. They are close enough, though, until you look at a different figure – Griffin was ranked 62nd by ESPN’s Player Rater and 149th by Yahoo!, whereas Love was ranked 5th and 4th, respectively, by the same two sites.

So what’s the difference? Well, I think the extra three pointers are being weighed more favorably than the assists, but it’s more than that; when Love was put on the free throw line, he made his shots. Griffin had more trouble hitting a free throw than Ben Wallace if he had Parkinson’s Disease.

There is clearly real life value to a good free throw shooter, but there is fantasy impact as well. Love had an .824 FT% compared to Griffin’s .521 FT%. Consider that. If a team wants to stop Blake Griffin, foul him. If he goes to the line ten times, he’s only getting ten points. He cost fantasy owners big time in 2011. Over the four month season, he missed 281 free throws (out of 499). Could your team have used an extra 281 points? Mine could have.

There’s room for optimism. His FT% the season prior was .642, a rate he nearly matched (.636) in the postseason, which came after a grueling, shortened season, which, of course, may have affected his stats. Boy, I haven’t seen this many whiches since I bought a hoagie on Halloween, but I digress. What’s the moral of this story? As Adam already talked about, regardless of all the value Griffin provides, he needs to learn how to hit a basket from 14 feet directly in front of him. Anything shy of .700 is not going to cut it anymore. Use the bloody backboard if you have to!

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Every Rose Has Its Mourn

ChrisVMay 16, 2012 by: ChrisV Category: Fantasy News

Does anyone find it odd that team physicians perform surgery? I mean, maybe that’s common, but I always feel like in other sports, the team doctor doesn’t operate on the players. “Okay, boys, clear out your jock straps, we need this massage table and Miss Michigan’s knife so I can repair this anterior cruciate ligament!” In any event, Bulls team doctor Brian Cole performed surgery on Derrick Rose three days ago, then held a press conference and told everyone the “surgery went really well. No surprises.”

Well, wait, there is one surprise: Rose will need 8-12 months for a full recovery. Aye to twah who what? That’s like when you have a microwavable food item that says “nuke on high for 3-5 minutes.” Not that 8 months is a short time span, but 8-12 months is a huge window. It is the difference between Rose playing and Rose missing all of the ’12-’13 season.

Come next year, I’m not going anywhere near Rose, because a Rose by any other name is still just as gimpy. Even if he is back by January or February, do you want him clogging up your roster until then? What will he give you when he comes back? At best, you may want to draft him in the last round, but I wouldn’t. You’d be better off following updates during the season and trying to snatch him when he is a few weeks away. Hopefully that strategy will work better with Rose next year than Baron Davis this year.

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Top 20 Centers, 2011 Fantasy Basketball

AdamMay 14, 2012 by: Adam Category: 2011 Fantasy Basketball Rankings

We’ve got a bit of a Good News / Bad News situation. The Bad News is that the NBA regular season is finished, and with it, your fantasy team – rendering all your strategery as useless as a neck full of Mardi Gras beads in March. The Good News is that it’s never too early to plan for next season. Is that news really all that good? Your girlfriend doesn’t think so. Then again, be thankful you have one, nerd. See? Every yin has its yang. We’ve already gone over point guards, shooting guards, small forwards and power forwards.  Today, let’s go out with a blowout: the league’s best centers. You know the deal, we’re using the season totals from ESPN’s Player Rater to determine each guy’s final rank. We’re listing averages, but we took totals into account because Games Played weighs heavily on his value – natch. Anyway, here’s the top 20 centers for 2010 fantasy basketball and how they compared to where I originally ranked them. Also, check out Jules’ Twitter feed. No, you!

1. Andrew Bynum Anyone telling you they knew what to expect from a fully healthy Andrew Bynum is either lying or is Shaquille O’Neal. And probably, if you find yourself talking to Shaq, he’s been lying about stuff, too. But not about Bynum. He said back in January that Bynum was better than Dwight Howard and everyone poo-pooed it (including me). But I can’t help but admit that ever since then, I’ve imagined that Bynum spent last summer alone in a gym somewhere lifting weights, grunting, tattooing himself with Old Testament passages and reading law books. Why law books? I’m not sure, but that’s what De Niro did in Cape Fear before leaving jail and seducing a 16-year-old Juliette Lewis. Bynum was a beast this year. It was nice to see an oft-injured player get over it and assume his potential. A surprisingly scant number of players actually do that. All that being said, I’m ranking Dwight first next season, too. Preseason Rank #7, 2011 Projections: .550/.700/0 3pt/13.5 pts/8.5 rbd/2 ast/0.5 stl/2.5 blk/2.5 tov. Final Numbers: .558/.692/0 3ptm/18.7 pts/11.8 rbd/1.4 ast/0.5 stl/1.9 blk/2.5 tov, 60 games

2. Marc Gasol You really couldn’t ask much more from the guy than what he gave you this season.  I suppose you could have asked for last season’s scoring numbers. Maybe an iPad 3. That would have been nice of him. I don’t see his numbers dipping next season. Call me crazy, but I also don’t see a iPad 3 in your future. It was a huge uptick from anything he’s ever done before. Just think back three seasons ago, when Marc was laughable in comparison to his brother. The comparison ain’t all that laughable, now. Preseason Rank #12, 2010 Projections: .514/.721/0 3pt/12.5 pts/7.5 rbd/3 ast/1 stl/1.5 blk/2 tov. Final Numbers: .482/.748/ 0 3ptm/ 14.6 pts/ 8.9 rbd/ 3.1 ast/ 1 stl/ 1.9 blk/ 1.9 tov, 65 games.

3. Al Jefferson This was arguably the best season of his career (head-to-head with his first season with Minnesota) and although he’s not old enough to make this performance surprising, there are just some players that get injured and it takes longer than it should to shake the idea that they are injury risks. He missed substantial games in four of his first five seasons, but he’s been horse-healthy ever since. This was the first time since 2008,  I wasn’t scared to draft him in the second or third round. It paid off.  Preseason Rank #3, 2011 Projections:  .495/.710/0 3pt/19.5 pts/10 rbd/2 ast/1 stl/1.5 blk/2 tov. Final Numbers: .492/.774/0 3ptm/ 19.2 pts/ 9.6 rbd/ 2.2 ast/ 0.8 stl/ 1.7 blk/ 1 tov, 61 games.

4. Greg Monroe Monroe is unfortunate to play for the Pistons. No one likes these Pistons. Pistons fans don’t like these Pistons. And if you own Monroe (Monrowner?), you’ve got to be pretty happy at how cheap this guy is going to come in a lot of leagues not paying attention. He’s not a sexy pick, especially with these low blocking numbers. He should be drafted in the fourth round, you’ll be able to get him in the fifth, which wouldn’t be the case if he was wearing a Bulls or Heat jersey.  Preseason Rank #17 (ranked as a PF), 2011 Projections: .555/.701/0 3pt/13 pts/9 rbd/2.5 ast/1.5 stl/0.5 blk/2 tov. Final Numbers: .521/ .739/ 0 3ptm/ 15.4 pts/ 9.7 rbd/ 2.3 ast/ 1.3 stl/ 0.7 blk/ 2.4 tov, 66 games

5. Marcin Gortat Marcin’s the guy you drafted hoping that you’d never think about him after draft day. He sat in your C slot, no one tried to trade for him, you never put him on your bench and you forgot to Facebook message him on his birthday. You literally could have cared less about this guy despite him being a huge asset to your fantasy team. I’m pretty sure I meant most of that as a compliment. Preseason Rank #13, 2011 Projections: .545/.700/0 3pt/16 pts/11 rbd/1 ast/0.5 stl/1.5 blk/1.5 tov. Final Numbers: .555/.649/0 3ptm/15.4 pts/10 rbd/0.9 ast/0.7 stl/1.5 blk/1.4 tov, 66 games

6. Tyson Chandler After having career-best PER and FG%, a second-straight career-best ORtg, improvements to most stats from the previous year and the Defensive Player of the Year Award. Apparently not playing for the Hornets or Bobcats achieves the same effect as an entire offseason of hard work and dedication. Preseason Rank #16, 2011 Projections: .610/.715/0 3pt/9.5 pts/9.5 rbd/0.5 ast/0.5 stl/1 blk/1.5 tov. Final Numbers: .679/.689/0 3ptm/11.3 pts/9.9 rbd/0.9 ast/0.9 stl/1.4 blk/1.6 tov, 62 games

7. DeMarcus Cousins If you look at Cousins’ season averages, there are only a few small tweaks needed to make him a top 5 center (shooting at least .470 on the season and doling out at least two assists per game). If you look at Cousins’ average performance on the court, however, you know it’s going to take a heckuva lot more than a few tweaks. Preseason Rank #19 (ranked as a PF), 2011 Projections: .430/.670/0 3pt/17.5 pts/10.5 rbd/3 ast/1 stl/1 blk/3.5 tov. Final Numbers: .448/ .702/ 0 3ptm/ 18.1 pts/ 11 rbd/ 1.6 ast/ 1.5 st/ 1.2 blk/ 2.7 tov, 64 games

8. Roy Hibbert Another year, another miniscule overall improvement to the Giraffe’s game (except his passing). I look forward to 2017 when he finally inches his way to the full potential we expected from him two seasons ago. Preseason Rank #15, 2011 Projections: .465/.770/0 3pt/12 pts/8 rbd/3.5 ast/0.5 stl/2 blk/2.5 tov. Final Numbers: .497/.711/0 3ptm/ 12.8 pts/ 8.8 rbd/ 1.7 ast/ 0.5 stl/ 2 blk/ 2 tov, 65 games

9. Joakim Noah It bothers me that you could have drafted Noah in the fifth or sixth round and gotten this production or grabbed Varejao off of waivers and gotten the exact same production (until Andy got hurt, anyway). What? All floppy-haired centers playing for Central division teams are alike to me? Yes. And it kills me.  Preseason Rank #6, 2011 Projections: .519/.711/0 3pt/13 pts/12.5 rbd/2.5 ast/1 stl/1.5 blk/2.5 tov, Final Numbers: .508/.748/ 0 3ptm/ 10.2 pts/ 9.8 rbd/ 2.5 ast/ 0.6 stl/ 1.4 blk/ 1.4 tov, 64 games

10. Dwight Howard He’s the best center in the league. Yes, even when he makes a career-low 49 percent of his free throws. Yes, even when he’s disgruntled and distracted. No, not when he misses a dozen games. You can’t bank on that happening every year. Preseason Rank #1, 2011 Projections: .575/.593/0 3pt/20.5 pts/14 rbd/1.5 ast/1.5 stl/2.5 blk/3.5 tov. Final Numbers: .573/.491/0 3ptm/ 20.6 pts/ 14.5 rbd/ 1.9 ast/ 1.5 stl/ 2.1 blk/ 3.2 tov, 54 games.

11. Tim Duncan I predicted he’d continue a slow steady decline this season (call it the inverted Hibbert), and he didn’t regress quite as much as I predicted he would. That’s nice for his owners, less nice for fantasy bloggers who are tired of Tim Duncan making a monkey out of them. Preseason Rank #15, 2011 Projections: .485/.720/0 3pt/13 pts/8 rbd/2.5 ast/0.5 stl/1.5 blk/2 tov. Final Numbers: .492/.695/0 3ptm/15.4 pts/ 9 rbd/ 2.3 ast/ 0.7 stl/ 1.5 blk/ 1.7 tov, 58 games

12. Samuel Dalembert I was surprised to see Sammy D ranked this high, though not as surprised as I was to see most of the remaining names coming up on this list. I won’t be surprised if he’s an afterthought next year. Still, he was a nice source of blocks who wasn’t killing you in any category and showed up to games. This is the equivalent of a 40-something single woman settling for a date that doesn’t end in being puked on before the night’s over. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: .506/.796/0 3ptm/7.5 pts/7 rbd/0.5 ast/0.6 stl/1.7 blk/1.3 tov, 65 games

13. DeAndre Jordan Speaking of being puked on : DeAndre Jordan. 93 percent of his field goals were dunks (not an accurate stat). He always shows flashes of being a huge fantasy asset. His blocks are great, his field goal percentage is phenominal, but he just doesn’t offer anything else. And that’s the problem with flashes: once the light goes out, you’re blind and incapacitated. Preseason Rank #19, 2011 Projections: .585/.465/0 3pt/8.5 pts/10 rbd/0.5 ast/0.5 stl/2.5 blk/2 tov. Final Numbers: .632/ .525/ 0 3ptm/ 7.4 pts/ 8.3 rbd/ 0.3 ast/ 0.5 stl/ 2 blk/ 1.3 tov, 66 games

14. JaVale McGee Look, I can’t quite dunk anymore. I get winded easily. I’m unfamiliar with the intricacies of most professional defensive systems. And I’d probably get in trouble with the press. But I’m damn sure if you let me shoot 100 free throws during in-game situations, I’d make more than 38 percent of them.  Preseason Rank #9, 2011 Projections: .519/.605/0 3pt/12 pts/8 rbd/1 ast/1 stl/3 blk/2 tov. Final Numbers: .612/.373/0 3ptm/11.3 pts/7.8 rbd/0.5 ast/0.6 stl/2.2 blk/1.4 tov, 79 games

15. Drew Gooden The season averages don’t tell the whole story. If you picked up Gooden in late January when Bogut went down, you benefited from two months of 17/7/3 production with 2.4 3ptm+stl+blk. He saved a lot of seasons in those two months. Mine included. Still, I only just now consider the damage he did while on the Bulls to be repaid.  Preseason: Unranked. Final Numbers: .437/.846/0.3 3ptm/ 13.7 pts/ 6.5 rbd/ 2.6 ast/ 0.8 stl/ 0.6 blk/ 1.9 tov, 56 games.

16. Nikola Pekovic And while we’re on the subject of final averages not telling the entire story: Pekovic’s final numbers, though surprising, weren’t nearly as surprising as his post-January numbers. It’s a shame the Wolves wasted a month figuring out that Darko Milicic was a poor decision back in 2003. Once they finally got it, Pekovic was free to average 15/9/1 and become a huge free agent grab. Not quite as big as, say, Marcin Gortat the season before, I’d wager that if Pekovic had played at least 15 more games and made it into the starting lineup in early January instead of late January, he’d have made the top 10. Preseason: Unranked. Final Numbers: .564/.743/0 3ptm/13.9 pts/7.4 rbd/0.7 ast/0.6 stl/0.7 blk/1.9 tov, 47 games.

17. Chris Kaman – I’m still unclear what was stuck in N’Awlins’ craw (mmm …  fresh New Orleans craw!) regarding Kaman or why he only started half the games to start the season. It was odd at the time and off in retrospect. When things normalized, so did Cave man’s stats (15/8/2, 1.5 bpg). Chris be crispy. Preseason: Unranked. Final Numbers: .446/.785/0 3ptm/13.1 pts/7.7 rbd/2.1 ast/0.5 stl/1.6 blk/2.7 tov, 47 games

18. Zaza Pachulia I’m just not sure I want to be a part of a basketball season in which Drew Gooden and Zaza Pachulia were among your best fantasy options; especially when neither played a full season. Preseason: Unranked. Final Numbers: .499/ .741/ 0 3ptm/ 7.8 pts/ 7.9 rbd/ 1.4 ast/ 0.9 stl/ 0.5 blk/ 1.4 tov, 58 games

19. Tiago Splitter I anticipated a leap in production from Splitter and that’s what I got. Why did I get that and you didn’t? That’s weird. Are you using that thing correctly? At any rate, I think Splitter’s production was indicative of what he’s capable of. Unfortunately, I don’t think he’s capable of a ton more in this league, or at least not in Popp’s system. Also, I just noticed that Splitter’s full name is Tiago Splitter Biems (which I’m pronouncing as “beems”). Let us not overlook how cool a name like “Splitter Beems” is. I’m pretty sure that was what they were considering calling Mr. T’s character in “Rocky 3.” Preseason: Unranked. Final Numbers: .618/.691/0 3ptm/9.3 pts/5.2 rbd/1.1 ast/0.4 stl/0.8 blk/1.5 tov, 59 games

20. Ed Davis Ed Davis: Because Nene just missed too many damn games. Preseason: Unranked. Final Numbers: .513/ .670/0 3ptm/6.3 pts/6.6 rbd/0.9 ast/0.6 stl/1 blk/1 tov, 66 games

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Top 20 Power Forwards, 2011 Fantasy Basketball

AdamMay 11, 2012 by: Adam Category: 2011 Fantasy Basketball Rankings

Point guards, shooting guards and small forwards have all been accounted for. Now, call this list the “anti-small forward.” With the exception of maybe Amar’e, injuries and general suckitude  didn’t dictate the direction this list took. For the record, Amar’e experienced both. I voted for Stephen Curry as the most disappointing fantasy asset (not to be confused with the “fantasy asshat,” which is 75 percent of the people at your average Comic-Con), but Stoudemire is right there with him. I haven’t rostered Stoudemire in three seasons because I can’t trust him. He whines, he lollygags and he passes blame. Also, I’m pretty sure he stole my favorite suit. No, yes he did. Yes he did. Yes, we ARE the same exact suit size. Don’t shake your head no at me. We’re totally the same size. Here’s the top 20 power forwards for 2011, it hasn’t changed. It’s just how you remember it, except maybe a little more quaint and naive, like your high school diary or a recent viewing of “Harry & the Hendersons.” Once again, to recap, we’re using the season totals from ESPN’s Player Rater to determine each guy’s final rank. We’re listing averages, but we took totals into account because Games Played weighs heavily on his value – natch. Anyway, here’s the top 20 power forwards for 2011 fantasy basketball and how they compared to where I originally ranked them.

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Psyche! Before we get to the heat of the meat, I’d like to step away from hoops for a bit (I mean, why not? The Bulls did it!) to plug a new Twitter feed. Jules from “Pulp Fiction” has grown bored from walking the earth and has settled back on the grid as a magazine editor. If you like humor, writing, cussing or aggression (and if you’re a frequent visitor to the site, you probably do) I highly recommend @editJules. Okay, enough of that. Back to the list!

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1. Kevin Love I’m not sure if I underrated Love’s offensive load before the season started or overrated guys like Beasley and Derrick Williams. I will say that, either way, Love missed 11 games and still no other PF came close to the number one spot this season. Preseason Rank #3, 2011 Projections: .475/.845/1 3pt/19 pts/14 rbd/3 ast/0.5 stl/0.5 blk/2 tov. Final Numbers:  .448/.824/1.9 3ptm/26 pts/13.3 rbd/2 ast/0.8 stl/0.5 blk/2.3 tov, 55 games

2. Pau Gasol Despite Bynum (and Kobe, duh) nipping his scoring, Pau remains the safest fantasy pick among all big men. He’s like plain chocolate ice cream, missionary sex, and the music of Tom Petty: You know it’ll probably be great, but it’ll never be spectacular. Preseason Rank #2, 2011 Projections: .529/.830/0 3ptm/19 pts/9.5 rbd/3.5 ast/0.5 stl/1 blk/2.5 tov. Final Numbers: .501/.782/0.1 3ptm/17.4 pts/10.4 rbd/3.7 ast/0.6 stl/1.4 blk/2.2 tov, 65 games

3. Paul Millsap – Twenty-four months ago, I predicted that if Millsap could find minutes, he’d be a top 10 PF. Well ma, look at me now! (I should have put pants on before I drew my mother’s attention.) His durability throughout this grueling season and his huge influx of steals (118 to be exact, more than 2010 despite playing 76 games and 2009 despite playing in all 82) bumped up his value more than I’ll feel comfortable crediting him with next year, but this guy is legit. He stays healthy, he stays in the top 10. Preseason Rank #11, 2011 Projections: .522/.733/0 3pt/18 pts/8 rbd/2.5 ast/1 stl/1 blk/2 tov. Final Numbers: .495/.792/0.1 3ptm/16.6 pts/8.8 rbd/2.3 ast/1.8 stl/0.8 blk/1.8 tov, 64 games

4. Serge Ibaka I usually try to avoid rostering my team with players who only know one note. But the fact is, Ibaka played the hell out of that note. No one dominated a single category as much as Ibaka dominated blocks. Teams with Ibaka started him 66 times and that alone was enough to almost guarantee a spot in the league’s top three in the BLK category. Eighty percent of the guy’s value came from blocks and he was the fourth most valuable PF of the season. THAT’s how damn many blocks he got this season. Lord help us if he played more than 27 minutes a game or learns how to shoot free throws. Preseason Rank #14, 2011 Projections: .530/.740/0 3pt/12 pts/9 rbd/0.5 ast/0.5 stl/3.5 blk/1 tov.  Final Numbers: .535/.661/0 3ptm/9.1 pts/7.5 rbd/0.4 ast/0.5 stl/3.7 blk/1.2 tov, 66 games

5. Dirk Nowitzki His scoring and minutes per game dropped for the third straight year and his rebounding fell for the seventh. Still, there were no huge dropoffs and he hung in there for all but four games. He’s still Dirk, just a little less so. Anyone who owned Nowitzki this season just got a Dirkumcision. Preseason Rank #1, 2011 Projections: .475/.885/1 3ptm/22.5 pts/7 rbd/2.5 ast/1 stl/1 blk/2 tov. Final Numbers: .457/.896/1.3 3ptm/21.6 pts/6.8 rbd/2.2 ast/0.7 stl/0.5 blk/1.9 tov, 62 games

6. Josh Smith I hoped his FT% would remain  above 70 percent like it did last season. It didn’t. But I wiped my tears away and you should, too. Smoove had a career-year with Horford on the shelf. He averaged 3.5 3ptm+stl+blk, and was the only player to average as high as 19/10/4. It blows chunks that he’s still insisting on so many threes and .458 from your PF means you’re going to have to have an efficient guard, but quibbling is for losers, and sounds like a spell Ron Weasley never mastered.  Preseason Rank #8, 2011 Projections: .488/.699/0.5 3pt/16.5 pts/8 rbd/3.5 ast/1.5 stl/1.5 blk/2.5 tov. Final Numbers: .458/.630/0.4 3ptm/18.8 pts/9.6 rbd/3.9 ast/1.4 stl/1.7 blk/2.5 tov, 66 games

7. Kevin Garnett It was also a career year for Cagey (assuming you slammed your head nine months ago and can’t remember anything that happened before this season, which is an assumption I make about most people). Garnett put up near identical numbers this year as compared to 2010. The surprising part is not that that happened, but that it happened specifically to a guy ending his 17 season of basketball. He could do this another five years, but hell if I’m ever going to assume as much. You can have your Nashes and your Garnetts. Me? I like my fantasy options like I like my women and my speed limits: under 25. Preseason Rank #18, 2011 Projections: .500/.850/0 3pt/14.5 pts/7.5 rbd/3 ast/1 stl/1 blk/1.5 tov. Final Numbers: .528/.862/0 3ptm/17.1 pts/10.2 rbd/2.8 ast/1.5 stl/0.9 blk/1.9 tov, 61 games

8. Ryan Anderson You’re going to treat Anderson next season like you treated Dorell Wright last season and I’m not going to be there to hold your hair while you vomit away your sad feelings. Preseason: Unranked. Final Numbers: .439/.877/2.7 3ptm/16.1 pts/7.7 rbd/0.9 ast/0.8 stl/0.4 blk/0.9 tov, 61 games

9. LaMarcus Aldridge Well, he finally earned his All-Star spot. Then he missed 11 games after that. It got to his head. The next thing you know he’ll be pants-less and methed out in the Nevada desert listening to The Doors and liking it. I can’t help but wonder if Aldridge would be a better or worse fantasy option if Oden’s bones didn’t hate him. Preseason Rank #6, 2011 Projections: .495/.775/0 3pt/21 pts/8.5 rbd/2 ast/1 stl/1 blk/2 tov. Final Numbers: .512/.814/0 3ptm/21.7 pts/8 rbd/2.4 ast/0.9 stl/0.8 blk/2 tov, 55 games

10. David Lee His scoring bounced back to the level it was at in his final year with the Knicks, but his rebounding continued trending downward. Actually, just his defensive rebounding. In his final two seasons with New York, Lee averaged 3.2 and 2.8 ORB, while he averaged 8.6 and 8.9 DRB. With Golden State he’s maintained his offensive rebounds with 3.0 in each of the last two seasons, while his defensive rebounds have plummeted to 6.8 and 6.6 respectively. Can we convince Jessica Alba to remove an article of clothing for every defensive rebound he earns next season? Look, she’s either a super fan or she isn’t.  Preseason Rank #7, 2011 Projections: .529/.784/0 3pt/19 pts/11.5 rbd/3 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/2 tov. Final Numbers: .503/.782/0 3ptm/20.1 pts/9.6 rbd/2.8 ast/0.9 stl/0.4 blk/2.6 tov, 57 games

11. Chris Bosh – Bosh’s post-Raptor career feels like an O. Henry story or something from The Twilight Zone. Superstar languishes in a far-off region doing great things no one notices. He hungers for acceptance and acknowledgement and leaves his far-off world in search of these things. He finally lands in a highly populated area where people will take notice and all they see is a whimpering, secondary bit player. Preseason Rank #10, 2011 Projection: .505/.812/0 3pt/19.5 pts/8 rbd/2 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/2 tov. Final Numbers: .487/.821/0.2 3ptm/18 pts/7.9 rbd/1.8 ast/0.9 stl/0.8 blk/2.1 tov, 57 games

12. Carlos Boozer It says a lot about a guy when he starts for the team with the best regular season record two years in a row and that team’s fans would gladly trade him straight-up for Kris Humphries. Preseason Rank #13, 2011 Projections: .515/.718/0 3pt/18 pts/9 rbd/2.5 ast/1 stl/0 blk/2.5 tov. Final Numbers: .532/.693/0 3ptm/15 pts/8.5 rbd/1.9 ast/1 stl/0.4 blk/1.7 tov, 66 games

13. Kris Humphries Humphries is the Rodney Dangerfield of the NBA. Don’t get me wrong, he gets all the respect he deserves, he just wears terrible ties and hates his ex-wife. Preseason: Unranked. Final Numbers: .481/.752/0 3ptm/13.8 pts/11 rbd/1.5 ast/0.8 stl/1.2 blk/1.9 tov, 62 games

14. Ersan Ilyasova Yup. Mm-hm, yeah. I had Snare Yo Saliva ranked ahead of Amar’e, Blake, Z-Bo, West and Elton, too. Sure did. What wouldn’t a fella? Preseason: Unranked. Final Numbers: .492/.781/0.9 3ptm/13 pts/8.8 rbd/1.2 ast/0.7 stl/0.7 blk/1.3 tov, 60 games

15. Elton Brand I understand that there are five guys AFTER Brand on this list suggesting Brand was more valuable than those guys. That’s arguable. What isn’t arguable is that his value is dropping faster than training bras on the stage at a One Direction concert.  Preseason Rank #20, 2011 Projections: .515/.718/0 3pt/18 pts/9 rbd/2.5 ast/1 stl/1.5blk/2.5 tov. Final Numbers: .494/.733/0 3ptm/11 pts/7.2 rbd/1.6 ast/1 stl/1.6 blk/1.1 tov, 60 games

16. David West Eesh. Career-lows as a starter almost across the board. Indy had a fine season collectively, but individually, Pacers were hard to own across the board this year. Preseason Rank #12, 2011 Projections: .471/.829/0 3pt/18 pts/8 rbd/2.5 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/2 tov. Final Numbers: .487/.807/0 3ptm/12.8 pts/6.6 rbd/2.1 ast/0.8 stl/0.7 blk/1.4 tov, 66 games

17. Blake Griffin One of the biggest faces in the NBA played a full season for a playoff team and finished 17th. He finished the previous season ranked 17th among power forwards on ESPN’s Player Rater as well and he played a full season then, too. He was the only PF besides Love to average at least 21/11 and he improved his FG shooting by .043 points. THAT’s how destructive his free throw shooting is. Also, if you can jump over a damn car, you should be able to average more blocks than Brandon Rush. Preseason #4, 2011 Projections: .495/.670/0 3ptm/23.5 pts/11.5 rbd/4 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/2.5 tov. Final Numbers: .549/.521/0 3ptm/20.7 pts/10.9 rbd/3.2 ast/0.8 stl/0.7 blk/2.3 tov, 66 games

18. Channing Frye Just what I like from my power forward: a total unwillingness to exert any power and often found roaming the backcourt.  Preseason: Unranked. Final Numbers: .416/.890/1.4 3ptm/10.5 pts/5.9 rbd/1.4 ast/0.7 stl/1.1 blk/1 tov, 64 games

19. Luis Scola Auto correct really, really wants Luis Scola’s name to be Luis Scotland. So it was written, so shall it be done. At this point, a handsy monkey brings more to the table than Luis Scotland. Not that monkeys are anything to scoff at. In many ways, they’re smarter than us humans. Ever been in the mood to toss your poop at someone? Didja ever end up doing it? See what I mean? Monkeys get away with stuff like that. What I’m saying is, a few of those monkeys can grab seven boards and avoid blocking shots and I’d rather have them on my team than the King of Squat. Preseason Rank #16, 2011 Projections: .522/.730/0 3pt/18 pts/8 rbd/2.5 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/2 tov. Final Numbers: .491/.773/0 3ptm/15.5 pts/6.5 rbd/2.1 ast/0.5 stl/0.4 blk/2.3 tov, 66 games

20. Al Harrington I may never forgive Amar’e for letting Al Harrington back onto a top 20 list. Preseason: Unranked. Final Numbers: .446/.676/1.6 3ptm/14.2 pts/6.1 rbd/1.4 ast/0.9 stl/0.2 blk/1.8 tov, 64 games

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Top 20 Small Forwards, 2011 Fantasy Basketball

AdamMay 09, 2012 by: Adam Category: 2011 Fantasy Basketball Rankings

We looked at the top 20 shooting guards for 2011 on Monday. Today? The 20 best fantasy swingmen (“fantasy swingmen” sounds naughty) from the year (or four months, as the case may be) that was. You know the deal, here’s my preseason Top 20 Small Forwards for 2011. Sip it, don’t slurp it … eh, what the hell. Go ahead and slurp it. Also, to recap, we’re using the season totals from ESPN’s Player Rater to determine each guy’s final rank. We’re listing averages, but we took totals into account because Games Played weighs heavily on his value – natch. Anyway, here’s the top 20 small forwards for 2011 fantasy basketball and how they compared to where I originally ranked them. Live it. Love it (she’s just a woman).

1. Kevin Durant I’ve had a hard time placing exactly what it is about Durant that I prefer to LeBron and I think it boils down to this: fantasy owners can count on Durant playing for you in the playoffs, whereas LeBron is a crapshoot.  Preseason Rank #1, 2011 Projections: .470/.880/2 3pt/29 pts/6 rbd/3 ast/1 stl/1 blk/2.5 tov. Final Numbers: .496/.860/2 3ptm/28 pts/8 rbd/3.5 ast/1.3 stl/1.2 blk/3.8 tov, 66 games

2. LeBron James I’ve been saying Durant was better for three seasons now. This is the first year I truly believed it. Preseason Rank #2, 2011 Projections: .515/.755/1 3ptm/25 pts/7 rbd/7 ast/1.5 stl/1 blk/3 tov. Final Numbers: .531/.771/0.9 3ptm/27.1 pts/7.9 rbd/6.2 ast/1.9 stl/0.8 blk/3.4 tov, 62 games

3. Paul Pierce It’s worth noting that Pierce’s three best free throw shooting seasons have all come in the last three years. I like noticing things like this about players because it hints at their ability to stay relevant a year or two longer than the average player. Pierce will be 35 next year, but I don’t think remaining an elite (top 5) SF was a fluke this year or will be if he does it next year. Along with his FT%, he averaged more or an equal number of assists as he had in any of his last five seasons. This is a guy learning how to do more as his body is compelling him to do less. Preseason Rank #8, 2011 Projections: .470/.840/1.5 3pt/19 pts/5.5 rbd/3.5 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/3 tov. Final Numbers: .443/.852/1.6 3pt/19.4 pts/5.2 rbd/4.5 ast/1.1 stl/0.4 blk/2.8 tov, 61 games

4. Rudy Gay Not as statistically valuable as 2010, but he stayed healthy. And statistically, that’s just as valuable as anything else. Preseason Rank #4, 2011 Projections: .460/.775/1 3pt/19.5 pts/6 rbd/3 ast/1.5 stl/1 blk/2 tov. Final Numbers: .455/.791/0.8 3ptm/19 pts/6.4 rbd/2.3 ast/1.5 stl/0.8 blk/2.5 tov, 65 games

5. Danny Granger In the last three seasons Granger’s FG%, 3PTM and PPG averages have dropped right along with his  USG%. Dude’s shot selection and the effect it has on fantasy owners’ moods are enough to drop him a couple more spots on this list. Preseason Rank #5, 2011 Projections: .445/.850/2 3pt/22 pts/5.5 rbd/2.5 ast/1.5 stl/1 blk/2 tov. Final Numbers: .416/.873/2 3ptm/18.7 pts/5 rbd/1.8 ast/1 stl/0.6 blk/1.8 tov, 62 games

6. Nicolas Batum I can only hope Portland gets its shizz aligned next season and let’s Frenchy No “H” run wild. He’ll be 24, part of Portland’s new axis that includes neither Roy nor Oden. Along with LMA, Batum is Portland’s new hope. He improved in almost every category this season despite averaging one fewer minute on the floor. Look for big, big things from this guy and for an outside chance of him cracking the top 3.  Preseason Rank #14, 2011 Projections: .470/.830/1.5 3pt/14 pts/5 rbd/2 ast/1 stl/1 blk/1.5 tov. Final Numbers: .451/.836/1.8 3ptm/13.9 pts/4.6 rbd/1.4 ast/1 stl/1 blk/1.5 tov, 59 games

7. Andre Iguodala It’s still kind of amazing that Iguodala has survived another season as Philadelphia’s starting SF. He’s like the decrepit teacher you had in high school that seemed on the verge of death who is still teaching when you return to your 20-year reunion. With both Turner and Young making obvious improvements this season, I would assume Iggy’s time is up, but then again, I’ve thought that for three seasons straight. Preseason Rank #7, 2011 Projections: .469/.714/0.5 3pt/14.5 pts/6 rbd/6 ast/1.5 stl/0.5 blk/2 tov. Final Numbers: .454/.617/1.2 3ptm/12.4 pts/6.1 rbd/5.5 ast/1.7 stl/0.5 blk/1.9 tov, 62 games

8. Carmelo Anthony I’m tempted to quote Brando’s “I coulda been a contender speech” from On the Waterfront, but it would better suit Amar’e (who’s a bum, let’s face it). Anyway, this was one weird-ass season for the Big Apple Knickerbockers. Preseason Rank #3, 2011 Projections: .455/.835/1.5 3ptm/25.5 pts/7 rbd/3 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/2.5 tov. Final Numbers: .430/.804/1.2 3ptm/22.6 pts/6.3 rbd/3.6 ast/1.1 stl/0.4 blk/2.6 tov, 55 games

9. Gerald Wallace I predicted a regression from his 2010 totals. And he did regress while with the Trailblazers, much in alignment to my preseason prediction. With one hand I’ll pat myself on the back and with my other hand, point out that his final numbers with the Nets were closer to what owners drafting him in the top five among SFs probably had in mind. Then I’ll use my third hand to freak you out until I remove the glove and reveal it to be a foot. I don’t have a whole lot of hope for the Nets and so I’m treading lightly with Crash next season. Preseason Rank #6, 2011 Projections: .470/.759/0.5 3pt/15.5 pts/7.5 rbd/2.5 ast/1.5 stl/1 blk/2.5 tov. Final Numbers: .454/.800/0.8 3pt/13.8 pts/6.7 rbd/2.8 ast/1.5 stl/0.6 blk/1.9 tov, 58 games

10. Thaddeus Young I was wrong not to have ranked Thad on this list in the preseason. He’s shown steady improvement over the last three seasons and has proven to be a solid utility plug-in on most fantasy teams. Outside of his non-existent three-point shooting, he’s one of the most versatile option teams can hope to grab after the eighth round of most drafts. He’s not a very hyped guy and one of my sleeper picks for a breakout season next year. Preseason Unranked. Final Numbers: .507/.771/0 3ptm/12.8 pts/5.2 rbd/1.2 ast/1 stl/0.7 blk/0.9 tov, 63 games

11. Shawn Marion I’m beginning to think that Marion was overrated for so long that it’s taken until now for him to become underrated. That said, if he’s the 11th SF taken in next year’s draft, your league will have returned to overrating him. Preseason Unranked. Final Numbers: .446/.796/0.4 3ptm/12.6 pts/8.7 rbd/2.5 ast/1.3 stl/0.7 blk/1.8 tov, 63 games

12. Luol Deng Remember that horse at the end of the Coen Brothers’ True Grit? The one that galloped Rooster and Mattie away to safety then collapsed and died from absolute exhaustion in the middle of nowhere? This was Deng to back in mid-January when he was averaging 39 minutes a game. He never seemed to leave the floor before the fourth quarter. Hhe missed 12 games over the course of the next 12 weeks, yet increased his time on the court to over 40 minutes per game. I think it cost him, too. His PER sagged and his shot was by far the worst it’s ever been. Stop beating a dead horse, Thibs!  Preseason Rank #10, 2011 Projections: .455/.770/1 3pt/16.5 pts/6 rbd/2.5 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/1.5 tov. Final Numbers: .412/.770/1.5 3ptm/15.3 pts/6.5 rbd/2.9 ast/1 stl/0.7 blk/1.8 tov, 54 games

13. James Johnson One of my favorite in-season pick-ups on the year. I’d like to see him on a team with a clearer vision for what his role should be and a system in which to incorporate his varied skills, which is a long-winded way of suggesting he be traded off of the Raptors. Still, he showed marked improvement in most categories while averaging three fewer minutes per game.  Preseason Unranked. Final Numbers: .450/.704/0.3 3ptm/9.1 pts/4.7 rbd/2.0 ast/1.1 stl/1.4 blk/1.6 tov, 62 games

14. Dorell Wright – Here’s what I said about Wright this time last year: “I won’t sniff Wright on any of my teams next year, as he’ll be gone about two rounds before I’ll be willing to consider the guy that, despite leading the league in threes, shot .423 on the season (.409 after the All-Star Break) and had such a sterling January that he spent the rest of the season being overrated.” Despite his spot as one of the 15 best small forwards from this season, I feel I should have gone further in my renouncement. His shooting was equally horrendous to the season before, his minutes dipped from 38 to 27, and his 3ptm production could have been replicated by a dozen other 2-3 hybrids. Think of Wright as more of a Kyle Korver, Matt Bonner or Anthony Morrow-type of fantasy option. Preseason Rank #9, 2011 Projections: .420/.780/2 3pt/15.5 pts/5.5 rbd/3 ast/1.5 stl/0.5 blk/1.5 tov. Final Numbers: .422/.816/1.7 3ptm/10.3 pts/4.6 rbd/1.5 ast/1 stl/0.4 blk/0.8 tov, 61 games

15. Alonzo Gee How steep a dropoff does this position face after its first 10 players? Alonzo Gee played 46 percent of the season at SF, but I included him here instead of SG because his total stats weren’t good enough to land him in the top 20 SGs list … and SG is ALSO a shallow position! Preseason Unranked. Final Numbers: .412/.788/0.7 3ptm/10.6 pts/5.1 rbd/1.8 ast/1.3 stl/0.3 blk/1.8 tov, 63 games

16. Danilo Gallinari For the period of time he was healthy, he really didn’t improve much from last season. I still think there’s a top 10 talent in there somewhere and at 23 years old, he’s still got some time to prove it, but dude’s missed 20 and 23 games in the last two seasons and I’m now willing to just settle for a healthy top 15 talent. Preseason Rank #13, 2011 Projections: .425/.885/2 3pt/16.5 pts/6 rbd/2 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/2 tov. Final Numbers: .414/.871/1.4 3ptm/14.6 pts/4.7 rbd/2.7 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/1.6 tov, 43 games

17. Mike Dunleavy Grabbing Dunleavy out of the free agent pool back in late February just as Stephen Jackson stopped participating and watching the junior Mike D average 15/4/3 in March was the equivalent of picking up a crumpled dollar bill from the ground and watching a ruby fall out. Preseason Unranked. Final Numbers: .474/.811/1.5 3ptm/12.3 pts/3.7 rbd/2.1 ast/0.5 stl/0.1 blk/1.1 tov, 55 games

18. Vince Carter - I was betting that a Lamar from Dallas would have a positive impact on the team. Never imagined it’d be Vincent Lamar Carter (or “Lamarter” as impatient people might say, or “la Martyr” as French people referring to Jesus might say). It’s worth pointing out that this was statistically Carter’s worst season of professional basketball, but also his healthiest since 08-09. Preseason Unranked. Final Numbers: .411/.826/1.2 3ptm/10.1 pts/3.4 rbd/2.3 ast/0.9 stl/0.4 blk/1.4 tov, 61 games

19. Matt Barnes Don’t make me evaluate Matt Barnes’ fantasy value. He played all but three games this season and sank a better percentage of his free throws than Chandler Parsons. There.  Preseason Unranked. Final Numbers: .452/.742/0.7 3ptm/7.8 pts/5.5 rbd/2.0 ast/0.6 stl/0.8 blk/1.2 tov, 63 games

20. Chandler Parsons The 38th overall pick in last year’s draft filled this year’s honorary Darren Collison – Landry Fields role of deep draft pick who found some fantasy value. His minutes climbed between December and March and his production climbed right along with it. And imagine, he managed all that despite sounding like an Appalachian fiddler who runs a weekday church group attended by just four elderly people and a blind guy! I actually think he’ll keep it rolling next year (he can’t NOT improve on his free throw shooting) and should be considered after the eighth round of most drafts.  Preseason Unranked.  Final Numbers: .452/.551/1.0 3ptm/9.5 pts/6.0 rbd/2.7 ast/1.5 stl/0.6 blk/1.3 tov, 63 games

Preseason Unranked

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