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In December 2011, Brandon Roy decided to retire from the NBA (or was asked to sit out by Portland) due to a degenerative knee condition. Less the a gestational period later, he has decided that the knee isn’t so bad, and he still wants to play. He had some kind of blood spinning procedure done, which sounds like a mixture of science and voodoo, and hopes to return rejuvenated and ready to pound the court.

What can Roy bring to the Timberwolves? Or more importantly, what can he bring to you? Well, back in the day, he was good for a steal, a three, 5 assists and about 20 points per game. His last season saw a tumble in his production, and then of course he sat out the following year. However, he has been training, and he had a similar procedure that gave Kobe Bryant a boost last season. It’s hard to call Roy a sleeper because everyone knows he’s returning, and the sporting press have been all over this “feel good story” more than if Tim Duncan rescued a kitten from a tree. In fact, I would only call this a sleeper because it’s a gamble. If the health of the knee buckles during the year, you’re not getting much of anything. However, if he can stay healthy and limber, you can get some pretty nice value.

It depends where Roy falls to determine if I take him. Frankly, degenerative joint problems are not something that can be cured, in my non-medical opinion. If we were to ask Dr. Patella Tendon, he would tell us that Roy’s cartilage will continue to be worn away by the repetitive motions of running and jumping, which will lead to increased pain and reduced movement.

There are so many variables and my projections are already dreamed up while on peyote, but I think I’ll give him the projected line of this: .445 fg/.798 ft/1.0 3pt/15.6 pts/3.2 rbd/4.4 ast/0.7 stl/0.1 blk/2.4 tov. I’m willing to bet he is a little slower than he used to be and Minnesota may reduce his minutes to try and keep him fresh throughout the season. I wouldn’t take him in the first 10 rounds, but after that, I’m all in for grabbing potential upside despite the considerable risk.

7 Responses

  1. Tony says:
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    glad to see some BB articles, keep it coming….

  2. Tony says:
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    Ok- now i’ve got a question. I’m in a deep/complex 18 teamer. We do a live auction each year. It’s amazing. Here’s my 4 keeps for right now.

    monta $36
    Paul george $16
    Javale Mcgee $22
    Evan Turner $9

    It’s basically your keeps salary subtracted from $200 and I have $127 to draft 4 players auction style since i attainted an extra $10 thru trades, then we snake draft for our other 4 players. I probably have more money than any other team coming into the draft.

    My Question is how much would you pursue a $16 Ty Lawson and a $16 Batum compared to the players I listed as my keeps? I’m even thinking of offering something like Monta36/ET9 and $10 draft cash for both? I dont know if the guy would go for it, but it could be a start. Do we have someone you’d like to compare these guys too? Like say ty lawson is going to be very similar to the career path of…… who would you say?

    Thanks, sorry if it sounds confusing, the leagues super complex, salaries do rise each year, lebrons like $61, durant went back in last year because a guy dropped out and we let two teams players back into the auction pool, he went for $90! There’s more money than there are enough quality players if you get what i’m saying.

    Any thoughts are appreciated.

    • ChrisV

      ChrisV says:
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      @Tony, this is actually a complicated question given your league dynamics, and I will try and see if some other guys can offer feedback as well. If Monta is going for $36, what is a top 10 guy going for? I have both Batum and Lawson as top ten for their position, but I would actually target Lawson sooner, especially if you are in a keeper. On the other hand, there is a drop off in Small Forward, with Batum around the last of the nice crop.

      • Tony says:
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        @ChrisV, ha thats where it gets complicated, Lebrons $61, but Durants $90, why? because durant got thrown back in the draft because we contracted two teams a year ago, there’s more money at the auction than there are good players, so if anything like that ever happens, someone blows their wad…… one guy owns kevin love at $26, so drafting a guy cheap, holding onto him, and having him explode into a top 10 player (not always easy) is huge… guys salaries are all over the place but i’d say most studs are around $50-60.

        For another example: Raymond Felton went for $40 some last year? Irving in his rookie year went for $50, it just depends what someone wants to spend, how much available cash, melo got thrown back in similar to Durant and he went for $85! Amare was a $60 player…..

        thanks, i know its tough hell it took me 2 years to kinda figure the league out, lol.

        • James Redacted

          James Redacted says:
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          @Tony, If you could get away with that trade I’d do it. I rank all the guys you listed (no money tag) as: Lawson, Monta, George, Batum, McGee, Turner. So basically, you’d be getting the two better players (monta and lawson are close tho) with a total cheaper price tag.

  3. Moe says:
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    interesting read.
    I’m pulling for roy( d00d loves the game)

    Hey guys
    I’m about to trade Jwall for Blake Griffin, straight up
    It’s a 9 cat , keeper.. h2d… I have LBJ/Dirk/Bynum and Wall
    I’m not a blake fan for fantasy basketball yet I think i can get a even better value pg using blake as trade bait, now or later, maybe wait until he explodes and dunks it up, get the hype high and try and land Westbrook or something….
    Just thinking ahead, yet wanted to see what you think
    I like wall, he could be one of the top Pg’s but, this year? hard to say… whatch athink???
    thx

    • ChrisV

      ChrisV says:
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      @Moe, Wall is nice but I would do that trade. First of all, I like Blake a little better than most experts, but not nearly as much as he is loved in the general community. You could absolutely flip him midseason. Second, the same way Blake will kill your FT%, Wall will kill your FG%.

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