Time for the undraftables!

It’s an absolute barren wasteland trying to sift through the 151-200 ranks, akin to that 60-year-old retiree scanning a remote beach with his metal detector.  Bleep!  Bleep!  Eureka I found a dime!  But none of these guys are good enough to get dimebags!

We’re finally wrapping up the top 200 (Rank 1-10 | Rank 11-20 | Rank 21-50 | Rank 51-75 | Rank 76-100 | Rank 101-150), with most of these guys untouchable in 12ers.  However, there is some upside to be had with your last-pick fliers and hopefully help out with the deeper leagues.  The deep ballers.  “I’m balls deep in sleepers!”  If only that were the case – a lot of these guys are likely duds or rooks that won’t see enough PT.  “I’m balls deep in DNPs!”  So remember upside is a big factor when you get this late, as no one wants to be balls deep in O.J. Mayo‘s 20 minutes off the bench…

If you disagree with these ranks, be sure to put your fantasy acumen to the test in the Razzball Commenter Leagues!  We need more commissioners and leagues, so sign up a league today, it takes literally a minute – I stop-watched myself – and face off against the best fantasy basketball community around!  Prizes and me shaming myself on YouTube abound!

Back to it, here’s the Top 200 for the 2015-16 Fantasy Basketball Season:

151. Courtney Lee, Memphis Grizzlies – Let’s start this as yawnstipating as possible!  Lee was initially in my top-150, but then I remembered a lot of his value last year was from a fluky high start in FG%/3PT%.  Through his first 23 games, 52.3% from the field and – wait for it – 54.5% from deep.  Say whaaaaa?!  Then regression hit hard and he was sub-40% from the field post-ASB.  Boring, but 1 3PTM/2 AST/1 STL should be replicable.  But Matt Barnes might push for some minutes by playing some 2 or pushing Tony Allen to SG.

152. J.R. Smith, Cleveland Cavaliers – Long-time readers know I’ve never been a Smiff fan, but he was solid in Cleveland after the trade and hit a redonkulous career-best 2.8 treys with the Cavs if expanded to a full season.  The 1.4 steals seem a little high as does his 31:45 MPG we saw post-trade, but with Kyrie Irving hurt, Mo Williams will move to the pure 1 for virtually all his minutes so we should see a strong start.  Then sell high!

153. Ben McLemore, Sacramento Kings – After an abysmal rookie campaign, McLemore really proved me wrong that he was a good basketball player in his encore, raising the %s and playing good enough D to keep Sauce Castillo off the floor.  That said, still sub-1 STL in 32:33 MPG and I really worry about a minutes crunch this season.  Darren Collison is gonna play a lot of SG on top of backup PG, and even though the Kings will go small at times with Gay the 4 and possibly McLemore to the 3, I don’t see it happening often enough.  I’m going to guess McLemore drops under 30 MPG this year.

154. Langston Galloway, New York Knicks – The Harlem Renaissance!  Pretty fantastic contribution Galloway gave last year as a D-League promotee (real word?), but A-R-Ron is a pretty big minute SG, Calderon is gonna play, and rookie Jerian Grant is likely well ahead of Galloway for minutes.  While he barely missed on getting his FG% to 40% (39.9), Galloway did hit 3s, get dimes and get steals with very minimal TO.  One more Calderon quad injury and he’s looking at a big role.

155. Zach LaVine, Minnesota Timberwolves – I didn’t even mean to have this mini-run on SG types, but it’s how the cookie crumbled!  And speaking of crumbling, the Wolves NEED to deal K-Mart ASAP to get LaVine in the starting 5!  I think Rubio is set, but K-Mart has a very friendly contract with a cheap final year next season as caps expand and I see him moved towards the deadline.  Unfortunately for 12ers, it’s going to be really hard to stash LaVine until then.  I don’t think he gets a ton of run until K-Mart is traded or gets hurt.

156. Kosta Koufos, Sacramento Kings – The Big Yogurt (pass/fail for new nickname?) is going to get madly overlooked this year for entering a bad team culture (see what I did there?!).  I think Kouf starts and plays more minutes than Willie Cauley-Stein, even though both won’t be seeing a ton of run as the league shifts to small ball.  However, Koufos stays healthy, is a monster on the glass, and in 25-27 MPG can easily get to 1.5 blocks.

157. Jae Crowder, Boston Celtics – Boston Clam Crowder (this one was already made last year!) time!  Signed for a surprising 5-years at $35 mil, the C’s locked up some depth and I bet it’s pretty close to a time-share at SF minutes with Evan Turner.  It’s been rumored he’s the favorite to start, and his out-of-position steal and half a block a game will have value, especially for the deepers.  If B-Rad decides Turner is as bad at basketball like most people have decided, maybe Crowder has some upside for 28-29 MPG.

158. Jared Sullinger, Boston Celtics – I know, I know….  He’s flashed a really good fantasy game at stretches, and everyone loves a good “look at how much weight he’s lost this offseason!” story.  I just hate the rotation, and I see him dropping below the 27 MPG we’ve seen the past two years and he needs the run to produce.  He’s awful from the field because his awful 3PT% sinks the FG%, so all you get is a smattering of REB with the occasional AST/STL/BLK.  In 32-34 MPG he’d be top-100 easily, I just don’t see that role.

159. Dwight Powell, Dallas Mavericks – Here’s a solid deep sleeper!  Powell’s in a murkier role than Sully, but flashed some crazy upside in Summer ball and for Team Canada this off-season.  The problem is he’s not quite beefy enough to even play a small-ball center, and with Dirk still camping for threes out there, Powell looks like pure backup-PF.  Maybe Dirk could swing to come C and they play a little together, but projecting over 20 MPG at this point seems high.  In Summer League he took a boatload of threes, maybe they’re trying to groom him into the next Dirk.

160. James Johnson, Toronto Raptors – Everyone’s favorite rainbow line threat, Johnson just hasn’t found consistency in his play or in his role.  He got a few starts last year that went OK, but it will take injuries to get him into a consistent 25-30 MPG role.  The per-36s are always sexy, but his 3-point stroke certainly isn’t!  He’ll be a great STL/BLK streamer late in weeks.

161. Julius Randle, Los Angeles Lakers – There’s murmurs he’ll start at the 4 right out of the gate, and well, virtually any starter is worth a consideration at this point.  His fantasy game is a little limited – not enough blocks for a big, his FT% isn’t great and a few too many TO, but he’s a poor-man’s Zach Randolph for some late boards and a little upside.  More than anything, I’m just glad the kid is ready to play.

162. Aaron Brooks, Chicago Bulls – Any backup to Derrick Rose has some upside!  Anything deeper than a 12er, Rose owners have to try and handcuff, making Brooks fringy in 12ers or shallower at best.  Even if (when) Rose goes down, there’s still – gulp – the off-chance they – gulp – play Kirk Hinrich at starting PG.  GULP!  We can only hope it doesn’t go that way, as Brooks was 14.1/2.5/4.4 with 1.5 treys as a starter last year.  Nothing immense, but he was very usable.

163. Gerald Green, Miami Heat – Slim seems to really disagree with me – which is funny since I’ve typically been a pretty anti-Green guy – but I think Green gets more PT even on a healthy Heat team than most.  We all know he is mad streaky and can light it up when he’s on (of course, that can be said of any NBA player), but not only do I think he gets 20ish MPG out of the gate, I think he’s the starting SG on Dwyane Wade DNP nights…  Which we all know, could be a boatload.  Certainly a Wade handcuff for me.

164. Clint Capela, Houston Rockets – Yet another backup to an oft-injured vet (this wasn’t even on purpose, just thought of it now!), Capela looks to be the pure-C backup to Dwight, who can’t even play 30 MPG anymore.  Capela’s even got a very similar fantasy outlook as Dwight, minus the awful TO.  As a starter, I could see Capela averaging 10/10 2 blocks.  It’ll take a Dwight injury, but that’s almost an assurance at this point…

165. T.J. Warren, Phoenix Suns – The buzz was a-soundin’ with all of Markieff Morris‘s whining that Warren could become the starter if Kieff got shipped away, but no trade has happened yet which doesn’t bode well for Morris wanting to go elsewhere…  Still, Morris could hold out or get benched or something – who knows – which gives Warren a glimmer of upside.  His fantasy game is mad-limited, but it was good to see him getting a lot of steals last last year when given the run.  For some late PTS/STL and maybe a starting role if something drastic ends up happening, you could do worse.

166. Shabazz Muhammad, Minnesota Timberwolves – If I knew Shabazz had a role, he’d certainly be higher than Warren!  But as it stands now, he’s really on the outside looking in until they trade K-Mart.  Given it’s a small sample, but 15.6/4.9/2.0/0.5/0.4 as a starter, with 1.1 treys and a nice 2.8-3.4 FT volume before a few injuries took a chunk of games.  PS – I had already placed him at this rank before seeing additional news he’s lost 30 pounds.  It has no bearing, not going to contradict my Sullinger point, but it’s interesting.

167. Mike Dunleavy, Chicago Bulls – I mean, I guess he’s OK…  The poster child for yawnstipation, Dunleavy should start, hit some treys and grab a couple of boards.  Awesome.

168. Willie Cauley-Stein, Sacramento Kings – A really fun rookie given his physical ability on the defensive end, his shortcomings in fantasy starts with the minutes.  I see The Big Yogurt playing more minutes, and even though WCS is getting all sorts of praise for being able to D up virtually any position, I don’t think it’s enough to get him to 25+ minutes this year.  Then there’s the awful FT shooting, although it should stay pretty low volume.  He’s a great source of blocks with your last pick if you want to risk it, but I have a hard time seeing him ownable all season in 12ers.

169. Patty Mills, San Antonio Spurs – Another interesting backup to an old vet!  Well, either way Patty is gonna play…  And I’d probably have him creeping towards – if not in – the top 150 if not for Ray McCallum.  I don’t have Ray-Mac in my ranks, but reports have indicated if (when) Tony Parker gets hurt, Ray Mac will play a good bit of PG.  Mills shot atrocious last year, but was off a major shoulder surgery and gutted through it.  20+ minutes to bury some threes could be a good bottom end guy to be sure and start on Parker DNPs.

170. Amir Johnson, Boston Celtics – Likely to be ranked much higher, that Boston front court is a bigger mess than the Kings front office.  B-Rad loves running his rotations thin (or would it be thick…) and Amir has had several kankles the past few seasons.  The steals and blocks have steadily declined the past three seasons, most noticeably in the swats down to 0.8.  25 minutes per even seems a little on the higher end to project for him, and he was only 123rd last year in per-game as a starter.  I’m not going to draft him in 12ers.

171. Bojan Bogdanovic, Brooklyn Nets – More ThrAGNOF = less problems!  I could see a lot of drafters needing treys nabbing him with the final pick, but even looking at a starting role, he ceded that spot to duds like Sergey Karasev and Markel Brown last year.  I’m not sold he keeps a starting job all year.  It is interesting he shot over 45% last year, pretty impressive for a rookie perimeter player.

172. Lou Williams, Los Angeles Lakers – I could see the name value getting him picked a tad higher, but Sweet Lou is looking to go Sour Lou in a crowded Lakers backcourt.  Even though he didn’t start for the Raps last year, he put up really solid numbers mainly with the high FT volume (4.3-4.9 for a sizzling 86.1%) and got 1.1 steals per in only 25:11 MPG.  Unfortunately, there’s no way I see anything close to any of those three stats.  He’ll be worth a big FAAB pickup if Kobe + another guard gets hurt though…

173. Evan Turner, Boston Celtics – Miss Turner!  Ello Poppet!  Turner is the poster child for bubblegum stats without anything else to fill it up.  His 3 tripdubs tied for 3rd in the NBA, but he does it with an awful FG%, virtually no 3PTM, too many TO, and (usually) not enough swipes.  His per-36 steals were a career best last year (1.3), but it’s going to be a tough task to get back to 27:33 MPG.

174. Archie Goodwin, Phoenix Suns – Ah, one of my favorite early rookie nookies!  And then he… didn’t do anything his rookie year.  He did show some promise late in 14-15 in his sophomore campaign, and looks entrenched into the first guard off the bench-role this year at both the 1 and 2.  But with Knight and E Bled set to play a boatload at those positions, and I kinda like Devin Booker to contribute right away as well (see below), it’s no lock for a huge role.  As with a lot of these bottom guys, it’ll take an injury to secure for-sure ownership in 12ers or shallower.

175. Tristan Thompson, Cleveland Cavaliers – Meh.  14-15 seems easily replicable, which means a pretty empty 8/8 line on 50+% shooting and a terrible FT%.  A nice rebounding streamer if you’re strapped in the cat late in weeks, but even with an injury to Healthcare.Mozgov, I don’t know if he enters the “must-own”-o-sphere.  He gets a decent rank since he could be usable in a lot of his late-week starts.

176. Cory Joseph, Toronto Raptors – The mojo for Cojo is notlow!  Even though he’s set to play a pretty nice combo guard backup role and he’s the direct backup to a pretty injury-prone Kyle Lowry, I don’t know how high the upside could take him.  His per-36s are pretty blah, but he wasn’t asked to do too much on the Spurs.  Even with a little more rock running through him, he’s not a 3PT shooter and doesn’t get a ton of steals.

177. Donatas Motiejunas, Houston Rockets – Things I like for sleepers – a possible role and good health.  Things I don’t like for D-Mo – well, you get it.  Off back surgery, I think we see a lot more of Capela at the backup C than D-Mo, especially if Dwight gets hurt.  Of course for small ball line-ups D-Mo is a good fit, but TJones could step out to a stretch 5 as well.  Then there’s the NBA ready Montrezl Harrell likely to play a minute or two as well.  Love D-Mo as a sleeper for dynasty; I don’t know how much he puts together in 15-16 for redraft.

178. Rodney Hood, Utah Jazz – Insert some sort of rap lyric joke!  Where’s Grey when I need him…  Grey is so Hood!  Anyway, Hood was solid as a fill in last year, going 12.7/2.8/2.4/0.9/0.2 with 1.6 treys in 21 starts.  Then a shoulder injury cut his season short, which ironically is the same injury that gave him that PT with the injury to Burks.  I like Burks a ton this year and think he can stay healthy (shoulder injury last year was a long-term nagging thing), so Hood’s upside is a little limited.  He could play backup SG/SF though, as he’s their best reserve wing.

179. Harrison Barnes, Golden State Warriors – Boring, and here’s a guy with legit no upside.  Even if Andre Iguodala is out for a long stretch, Barnes hasn’t seemed to get bigger run when that has  happened in the past, and even though he was 109th in per-game last year, the career-highs at 48.2% from the field and 40.5% from deep seem a little fluky high.  If those go down even a tad, he’s even more vanilla.

180. Paul Pierce, Los Angeles Clippers – Wanna know The Truth?  You old!  Slotted to play starting SF, asking him to play 73 games at 26:12 again seems a little much to ask.  His usual steal per game dried up to 0.6 last year, and I just don’t see it going well.  Last year is the best-case scenario, and he was 114th in per-game.

181. Meyers Leonard, Portland Trailblazers – He’s going to be a popular sleeper on a lot of draft boards, because well, the Blazers have a lot of youth with no defined roles.  It seems the speculation of him starting over Ed Davis is mounting, but give me Big Ed over The Big Weiner…  Oscar Meyers?  OK, let’s not use The Big Weiner…  The addition of the deep ball is nice, but he doesn’t block any shots and is kinda a ThrAGNOF wing stuck in a big man’s body.  A few boards will help, but Meyers has some foul trouble issues and I don’t think I’m going to use a draft pick on him in 12ers.  Certainly worth tracking in the preseason, and if he’s assured a starting role, he’ll have to move up.

182. Andrew Bogut, Golden State Warriors – Death.  Taxes.  Bogut injury.  Only things in life you can count on.  But before getting hurt last year, Bogut was shockingly valuable, putting up 6.3/8.1/2.8/0.6/1.7 in 24 minutes a game.  The metrics didn’t love it because of the low scoring, but he was must-own for the blocks and out-of-position dimes when healthy.  However, he’s already played some summer ball with the Australian national team with complaints of back pain.  Then there was that whole small ball Finals line-up with Dray playing C.  That won’t be their attack this season, but when he’s out there for 22-23 MPG, he will be worth streaming at the least.

183. Corey Brewer, Houston Rockets – StealsNOF!  Doesn’t really work…  While his ridiculous steals pace with the Wolves was sure to come down (24 games 2.1 SPG), I think he can do better than the 1.1 we saw in 25:07 MPG with the Rox.  He’s not great from the field, but should be able to score another 10.0 a game with a steal or two a game.  Streamable for sure.

184. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Brooklyn Nets – Are these the same two players?!  I honestly can’t think of two guys I’d project for exactly the same stats, although RHJ should score a tad less in probably a few less minutes.  Although with how inconsistent their SG play has been, maybe they let him play some time at the 2…

185. Mario Hezonja, Orlando Magic – He can have all the swagger in the world, it’s just going to have to be on the bench…  Early Summer League’s darling, Hezonja had a big dunk and a game-winner and everyone lost their minds.  Too bad he’s a ThrAGNOF for fantasy, without any sort of certain role.  I love the guys at Rotoworld, but they’re really on their knees for this kid.  I just don’t see it happening this year.  The only reason he even gets a rank from me is Tobias Harris has had kankle issues in the past, and Hezonja could hopscotch Evan Fournier for starting SF minutes, since The-Fournier-Year-Old Virgin can play backup SG as well and maybe they’d like to keep him in a reserve wing role.

186. Raul Neto, Utah Jazz – Aight, this is where I go off the reservation…  Let’s run through a quick three facts: 1 – Dante Exum is out for the year, 2 – Neto is the backup PG, 3 – Trey Burke is awful.  Hah, actually none of those are facts as Exum could possibly get back for the playoffs, there’s Bryce Cotton to compete for backup PG minutes, and maybe Burke finds something this year.  I know it’s a lazy comp since they’re Latino/Hispanic respectively, but Neto could be a Rubio-type if given the starting minutes, racking up tons of dimes while shooting a lot of bricks.  They love his defense and seeing Burke get passed on the depth chart by a raw rookie isn’t hard to envision…  We saw it last year!

187. Steven Adams, Oklahoma City Thunder – If only Adams had a role!  If Grizzly Adams had a beard!  The Thundah bringing back Kantah was a death blow to Adams fantasy value, and even as a starter he hasn’t been a fantasy juggernaut.  He’ll need an injury just to become a fringy top-100 guy.  Awesome athlete and mustache though!

188. Bismack Biyombo, Toronto Raptors – Brought in to be a rim protector, Biyombo is now the Raptors’ only rim protector…  Hah!  So a nice 20 minutes per should be there, and an easy 1.5-2 blocks per game in hand.  Hard to believe in under 20 minutes per last year with the Hornets, he was at 6.4 boards and 1.5 blocks.  It’s low end, but if anything happens to The Luminescent Lithuanian, Biyombo in 26-28 minutes as a starter will be pretty close to must own.

189. Kelly Oubre, Washington Wizards – Ugh, I guess I have to keep talking up Oubre and ruin my chances of getting him at a value in the REL draft…  My favorite deep-dynasty sleeper, Oubre has a steep climb to contribute this year, but Bradley Beal is a huge injury risk and Otto Porter is both unproven as a starter and as a stretch-4, both roles he’s being thrust into at times.  I’d assume vets like Jared Dudley and Gary Neal would come in as backups, but while Oubre is raw, I think he can play a little now.  It might only translate into PTS/3s/STL in the right minutes, but I’m liking him as a very late stash in the deepers.

190. Jameer Nelson, Denver Nuggets – Re-signed to provide some vet leadership for Mudiay, Jameer should get some decent minutes as both his backup and fill-in for when he’s mad cold and TO-prone.  I could see him playing 20-25 minutes and banging a couple of threes with a few dimes to be somewhat useful.  And on that rebuilding, awful Denver team, Nelson could be really interesting as the starter should Mudiay get hurt or shut down late.

191. Josh Smith, Los Angeles Clippers – J-Smoove is J-Bumpy!  Or, ya know, some sort of funny joke based off his name…  He’s actually a great fit for the Clips, as he can play backup PF behind Blake and the stretch-5 behind DJ, but even in a lowered-25 MPG stint with the Rockets, his %s were abysmal and his TO just as bad (2.4).  What will be interesting to see is if teams hack-a-DJ then immediately hack-a-Smoove if he goes in to play the 5.  Clippers might have the longest games in NBA history…

192. Justise Winslow, Miami Heat – I don’t know which is least prepared: Winslow for the NBA, or me trying to remember “Justise” spelled that way for his career.  Pretty sure I’ve typo-ed it a couple times during the draft!  I know not to expect much from him this year if the Heat stay healthy, but Deng and Wade are both old with the latter obviously very injury prone – there could be an opportunity.  He’s coming into the league sorta MKG-ish, with an unrefined jumper and great physical abilities/defensive prowess.  One plus is he can draw a ton of fouls, although his 64% FT% at Duke is a little scary.  Upside for 1.5 STL/0.7 BLK if given a lot of minutes has him just barely on my board.

193. Kent Bazemore, Atlanta Hawks – I think I’ve told this story before, but when attending UNCW, I went to a basketball game against Old Dominion and I had a buddy with the last name “Bazemore” sitting with us, and then this kid shows up…  Weird thing is, Bazemore wasn’t even that great when we saw him – even in CAA competish!  But he’s flashed some upside at times when given run, and with Carroll gone and Korver off multiple surgeries/Sefolosha off a broken leg from a nightstick, I could see Bazemore playing a lot of wing off the bench.  He’s not a great FT shooter, but when he got that long look on the Lakers, he was more than usable.  Worth tracking.

194. Noah Vonleh, Portland Trailblazers – A 2nd half stash, Vonleh has a pretty upward climb towards fantasy relevance in redraft leagues, but on a punting Blazers squad, anything could happen.  Punt City!  Although there was a much better joke for Rip City, I think it was R.I.P. City, which is awesome…  Anyway, Vonleh has a chance to hit some stretch 4/5 treys, sneak in a block, and be fantasy-interesting when given the run.

195. Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns – Sexy stroke aside, Booker fell into a great situation with the Suns who have very little in upside backups at G.  Knight is about average in injury risk but is off a bad kankle, yet E Bled has had several ailments.  Then put that sexy stroke back into the mix, and other than Knight, he’s really the only good deep shooter on this team.  He’s a little bit on the outside looking in, but if one of the PG/SG starters is out, Booker could make a great ThrAGNOF stream.

196. Justin Holiday, Atlanta Hawks – So to give you a little peak behind our curtain (ew, not like that!), Slim thinks Holiday is an MVP candidate and Bazemore belongs forgotten overseas somewhere…  Hah, I keed, but I like Bazemore to play a little bit more for the defense should lingering injuries arise with the aging vets, a little bit over the more offensive-inclined Holiday.  He flashed some upside with the Warriors last year when given the run, but it’s still hard to see him playing a huge role on the Hawks.  That said, just like Bazemore, a glimmer of opportunity is flashing her DD breasts…

197. Trey Lyles, Utah Jazz – Sticking with “Glimmer”, which I think is a pretty solid stripper name, Lyles enters the Jazz rotation as a pure stretch-4 on a team without a starting stretch big.  Of course, Trevor Booker adopted a 3PT game out of nowhere, but I think Lyles can push him right away for backup PF/C minutes.  He doesn’t do much with the steals and blocks, but he’s a great athlete for a spark up front off the bench.  Mildly intriguing.

198. Cody Zeller, Charlotte Hornets – I bet no one was more upset with the Kamisky draft selection than Zeller…  “Wait, they drafted a [slightly] younger and sexier me!  And I can’t stay healthy!”  If only I had a Yak Bak to play back that gut-reaction…  C-Zell still could edge out Frank the Stank for the starting role, but either way, the minutes are going to be dicey.  He still gets a top-200 rank for the decent multi-cat game with a decent FT%.

199. Patrick Beverley, Houston Rockets – Booooo!  BOOOOOO!  Stupid Rockets…  Bringing in an alcoholic to play PG and booting an underrated PG…  Sure PBev is pretty low end even when the pure-starter, but there’s a chance he plays a little combo guard with Ty Lawson, and with enough bench minutes, could still hit enough treys and swipe enough steals to be moderately useful.  In the streaming/deep league sense, of course.

200. Jamal Crawford, Los Angeles Clippers? – It feels like he’s underrated every season, so I’m going to keep prolonging the fallacy!  Well, he is 35, and off a low-MPG season while shooting sub-40% from the field.  And to add into the pot, is drawing trade interest across the league.  Since they brought in Lance Stephenson (Unranked – and hey!  Look at who ranked him lowest last season!) it makes sense, so we’ll see.  Enough upside for a couple of treys and points a game to be ranked Mr. Irrelevant.

 

And there’s the final full-form rankings post!  Whew!  Of course we’ll be updating the Master Rankings table frequently, with these final 100 ranks going in on Monday.  Then through the remainder of the off-season, probably 10-15 of these guys will be dropped out for some new blood that emerges in pre-season.  Thanks for stopping by, Razzball Nation!

 

  1. Matty says:
    (link)

    Philosophical question for the community: Do you guys maintain a “DO NOT DRAFT” list or do you believe that every player has a value if they fall to certain spot in the draft?

    For example, assume everyone in your league happens to favor a balanced team approach with no punting. DeAndre Jordan and Andre Drummond start falling and it’s getting to the fifth, sixth round. Do you continue to pass indefinitely in favor of more balanced players that fit your team build or do you bite the FT% bullet and snag one of those guys a couple rounds beyond their ADP?

    The other prime example is players with the giant blinking red injury flag perennially attached to their name. This would be your Derrick Rose-type who you are fairly confident will miss time (and take EXTRA time to fully recover rather than fight through at 80-90% health).

    Just curious to see where the fantasy masses come down on this issue because I’ve long struggled with it, being able to make a compelling case on both sides of the argument.

    Oh, and more specific to this post, my five favorites to crack the top-150 from this group are: Lavine, Brooks, Warren, Mills & CoJo. (As I mentioned in a forum post on a previous article, I’m big on some of the backup PGs who have question marks infront of them on the depth chart…and all of Lavine, Brooks, Mills & CoJo fit that bill for one reason or another.)

    • MAC says:
      (link)

      @Matty:
      i do a “do not draft list” as well in my pre draft rankings. thats basically incase i cannot attend the draft. i just dont bother putting them in my list, as it takes tym and just makes my rankings long. haha! even if they slide, i still would not get them. exmples would be kobe, rose, duncan, dirk, wade. they r more of a head ache and they r just not for me. and some others are the ones at early rounds, where u can basically predict who u r gonna pick. so i put klay, kawhi, jimmy in my do not draft list, since im going pg bigs first several rounds.

    • Adam

      Adam says:
      (link)

      @Matty: Every player has value depending on where they fall and the depth of the league. There’s a point when upside and risk meet, where every player should be drafted. Some players like Brandon Jennings fall below the scope of a standard league, but in a deep league he will have value at a certain point. Most of the players in that category have big names, but have lost value, like Kobe. So odds are, someone will snatch them up before it’s even a debate.

      As for guys like DeAndre and Drummond, if they’re falling that late, I’m drafting them. You can always reshape your team, or trade them, but again, there’s a certain point where value overcomes risk.

    • CTMN says:
      (link)

      @Matty: I consider FT punt guys until my first couple picks, which basically decide what direction I’m going in, but if Drummond and DJ are still there then I’d take them even if I have Harden or someone like that for FTs. The value is more important, I can always trade DJ/Drummond for something big because people in my league value those guys a ton. Anyway, they can still help you even if they hurt your FT% advantage of Harden, cause between one of them and Harden/Lillard/KD, you’re covering basically every category.

      I still have a don’t draft list tho. I have like 40 guys on it lol, because I want it to be fun and to get good value game-to-game, week to week, so I hate getting anyone injury prone, even if they fall. Would you rather 50 games of Kobe or 80 games of Wilson Chandler? I had Jrue last year and that’s not happening again lol, it’s just so frustrating. I also have guys with attitude/other problems like Rondo on it, and guys in a crowded rotation like Boston’s frontcourt.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
        (link)

        @Matty: @MAC: @Adam: @CTMN: Yeah I don’t have an “undraftable” list of guys I have ranked top 120 or so. I highly doubt I’ll get a group of guys, but if they fall enough I would take the plunge. Making a trade is a great point – hopefully if you have to take a guy you don’t love, it’s an active league and you can move them. Agree fantasy is supposed to be fun, it’s no fun tracking your squad if you don’t like your players/constantly worried with injury risk. All those guys CTMN mentions I’m “likely” not drafting, but Rondo as a 2nd to last pick in a 12er? I might have to do it there…

        • Matty says:
          (link)

          @JB Gilpin: Well I guess if this thread tells me anything it’s that I’m not nuts for struggling with a “DO NOT DRAFT” list as there seems to be a few people landing on both sides of the issue.

          Doing my pre-draft rankings list for the upcoming RCL I ended up with a pretty decent sized list of players heading to the left side of the screen. The vast majority of them are due to injury concerns, but there are a couple where I just have no interest in rostering them because they seem like world-class a-holes (I’m looking at you ‘Kieff and Rondo!) who could run themselves right off an NBA roster because of their attitude issues.

          I ended up with the similar situation to what JB described where I’ve got a top-100 or so with pretty set spots and then after that I have my late round dart throws who I’m happy to take after the core of my roster is filled out. This is mostly specialists or guys who are primed for a big bump if there’s a preseason trade or injury to the incumbent starter (i.e. Lavine if Rubio gets moved, TJ Warren if ‘Kieff sulks his way out of the desert, etc.).

          I think at a certain point in the draft the ADP doesn’t much matter anymore and you might as well take a shot on “your guy”…so if his ADP is 135 and you want to snag him at 108, go for it…why wait, right?

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
            (link)

            @Matty: Yeah I agree, Kieff is going to fall at least another 10 when I get the master standings updated. Kobe is gonna be tough to own too.

            Oh for sure that late! I disregard ADP the whole draft more or less haha. Especially in RCLs, when commenters know to pass on Rose at 30 ha!

  2. Nick says:
    (link)

    I’m curious to know who your “late season buys” will be. Aka those young players that will be undeaftable yet light it up come playoff time becuase their team sucks and they need playing time to develop.

    Looking mostly at rookies and 2nd year players that fit that bill

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Nick: Interesting, well two Wolves come to mind – LaVine and Shabazz. Vonleh should get a lot of run in the second half for the Blazers to see what they have. Same with all those Blazers – McCollum I bet plays a lot more in the 2nd half.

      • Nick says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin:

        Thanks! I betting shabazz and Vonleh will be on the wire till the end. Guys like clarkson, lavine, Payton, Gallo and I’m sure there’s more were unownable for most of the season then blew up to help guys win there league. I think it’s always good to be thinking who could be those guys this year and keep a roster spot or two open heading into the ASB to scoop them up for the home stretch. I also love the prospect of 2 for 1 trades to sell guys that could be shut down or lose minutes post ASB for a beast and to free up a roster spot.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @Nick: For sure! Well Payton I had ranked 80ish pre-season so I had him all year, but he had an awful stretch middle of the season. Yup in 10 or 12 team leagues, getting the best player and opening up a critical roster spot is huge in 2 for 1s, I try them very often haha

  3. ETMcgee says:
    (link)

    I think meyers leonard has a better than average chance to greatly outperform this ranking and will almost certainly be the highest ranking blazer big this year. The blazers would be dumb to start ed davis and plumdog together, since neither can shoot outside of about 6 feet (especially since al farooq aminu isn’t stretching the floor either from the sf spot and gerald henderson doesn’t have much range either if he starts over cj). I’d guess that davis fits better coming off the bench alongside kaman/vonleh.

    Meyers put up a 50/40/90 in percentages last year and is big/athletic enough to grab close to double digits in rebounds and block a shot or 2 while getting 25-30 mins per night. I think his percentages will drop not being left completely open like last year, but he will actually get a chance to develop playing in games instead of just practice. i think he also has the inside track on a large role for the team (one of olshey’s draft picks, played very well in the playoffs vs memphis, has been in the system and is now one of the longest tenured players on the team).

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @ETMcgee: Whoa higher ranked than LIllard?!?! haha, jk 🙂 Then I re-read that and see you said “blazer big”. I’m stupid, but felt like leaving that in… 🙂

      Good point on the spacing, but I do think Davis gets good run. At least I kinda hope, his per-36s indicate he could turn in some nice value.

      I just don’t see the blocks coming – per-36 he was at 0.6 and 0.5 blocks the past two seasons. That’s microscopic. But the opportunity is certainly there, if we get news he’s going to start/starts in preseason, I could see raising him a bit (and lowering Big Ed). Good %s for treys and boards. Even with a big role he seems fringy ownable though

    • Slim

      Slim says:
      (link)

      @ETMcgee: Yeah its the blocks that are the main problem. The FT volume makes that irrelevant and I’m pretty sure JB doesn’t like how his per36 assists went down and TOs went up. But… he’s well worth a last round or 2 pick as long as you aren’t looking for more blocks from a big.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
        (link)

        @ETMcgee: @Slim: Meh well in 13-14 he only played 355 minutes, so I don’t think the sample is big enough to worry about a minor regression in A:TO. Meh, even with a starting role I don’t think I’d draft him in a 12er

  4. ByeFelica says:
    (link)

    I just noticed Kosta Koofus is starting for Sac- Town?

    I can keep him for $1 compared to keeping Asik for $11 in the REL. Prototypical same player, same type of stats except Asik is older, injured more, and has zero upside. I rather have the cheaper option & keep the money to grab some rookie nookie. I need a PG2 cuz i don’t have any ballhandlers on that squad besides a $30 Rondo & there’s no fuggin way I’m keeping him at that price.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @ByeFelica: Yup! I think they want to bring WCS off the bench to fit whatever bench rotations opps throw out there.

      REL time approaching! I def like The Big Yogurt better as a keeper, but I think both are holds. Asik is close…

      Yup PG is rough, why I loved my Rubio buy this last year. Just stay healthy you sexy Spaniard you!

    • Slim

      Slim says:
      (link)

      @ByeFelica: PGs are always the toughest to find in the REL and nothing else is close. Yeah Rubio at $30 might seem high based on his performance but there just aren’t many other options available. Before we know who is going to be dropped it looks like Rose is the only starting PG available. I’ll be dropping a $16 Beverley. Unfortunate but tis the way the cookie crumbles. The top two rookie PGs should both go for $30+. Looks like JB will be out of the running after his trade. Looks like he’s only got about $15-$20 come draft day. For me I’m obviously keeping Lillard $36, Clarkson $1, and Burks $8 but I’m also going to keep Galloway $1 and Goodwin $1 just because they give me some PG stats. I’d love to add Jerian Grant but I bet he goes for $15+. Cam Payne, Rozier, Tyus Jones, and Delon Wright should all go for less than $10 but just that they are PGs could definitely drive up their price. Throw in your Rondo and maybe Jennings $23 and that might be the sum total of available PGs.

      • ByeFelica says:
        (link)

        @Slim: I’ll be targeting one of those 2 guys to build off of on draft day. I’d love to own Russell & I have the cap room available. Hopefully he dosen’t get bid up to a crazy amt. I’m always playing to win this year but realistically i think i might be a couple years away.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @ByeFelica: Yeah I was kinda thinking I would like Mudiay, but I’m more ready to win now and took the for sure production and cheaper price of Ellis trading some young depth

    • Phranque (pronounced Frank) says:
      (link)

      WHOA….Who says Koufas is starting?

      I live in Sac-o-to-matoes…and certainly have no crystal ball…but the buzz here is that DMC is still the center and GAY may become the stretch 4 the KINGS believe they need. WCS is the wild card. If he is as good as a defensive/motor guy as advertised, the starting 5 may be altered soon. Koufas did start for KARL during his successful/LAST year in DEN,, and will likely get close to 25 mins p.g….but it does not appear that he’ll start.
      Just sayin’.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
        (link)

        @ByeFelica: @Slim: @Phranque (pronounced Frank): Yeah I checked in on Ellis, and decided coming out with him at $23 would be a dream scenario in the draft, so made the deal. I need AST and PTS, so it’s perfect. Although I indeed will have a quiet, late draft, I think I’m at like $14 for 5 guys. The deal did make me decide to hold onto $1 Snell for depth.

        I don’t think anyone has “said” Kouf is starting, just conjecture from around the interwebs. Agree Gay is gonna play a lot of stretch 4, just dunno if they tip that way. Either way, 25 MPG is exactly what I think for Kouf anyway, and if they’re in 2nd unit minutes, it makes him even more attractive.

        • ByeFelica says:
          (link)

          @JB Gilpin: even at 25 mins per gm in a 20 team dynasty league $1 price tag is phenomenal imo

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
            (link)

            @ByeFelica: Yeah but I don’t think he gets close to 25 minutes when everyone is healthy. Prob even under 20. Just gotta hope Butler and/or Dunleavy have some injuries.

  5. MAC says:
    (link)

    RAZZUp guys?! been doing some mocks, and always practicing pick 12, is it too crazy getting bledsoe as my second pick? if i land there, and after the top ten, im going drummond as my first pick, obviously going punt ft. im very high on drumm, so is it too crazy to combo with drumm the next pg on board? as much as i like draymond there as well, but i like having favors as my second big more and targeting him at the next turn at 36 37 with another pg.

    • CTMN says:
      (link)

      @MAC: That strategy makes sense to me. If you’re already behind by not having a top 10 guy, you might as well change the game by punting, and Drummond is gonna be an even bigger monster without Monroe there. I like Drummond/Draymond, but the Favors at 37 thing makes sense too. Bledsoe at 13 is a reach but if Curry/CP3/Lillard/Westbrook/Wall are gone then there are no other PGs for a while…I might just take best player available and try to trade for a PG later if possible.
      I think Drummond/Gobert 12/13 would be fun, wins a few categories by itself.

      • MAC says:
        (link)

        @CTMN:
        defintely punting after top ten, and drummond for me this season is num 1 for punt ft build. thats the thing with going draymond as my second pick, i like a drumm favors combo more with bledsoe and teague. so basically doing the mocks, i always have teague with favors there at the 36 37 turn. and for me right now, i like drumm favors bledsoe teague than drumm draymond teague dragic. so basically, its a favors bled over draymond dragic there. though there is a chance hayward or oladipo there instead of dragic.

        wow! that should be fun. that should be considered. though in a punt ft build, deandre should be next after drumm for me. so going drumm gobert/deandre then the next 4 pgs. haha!

        • CTMN says:
          (link)

          @MAC: I’d love Teague but I’m not sure he’ll be there at 36/37…I think Hayward would be a great pick 2, it’s just gonna get you strapped for PGs. Reggie Jackson might be there at 60-61 maybe? Those big man combos would be insane lol just not sure if it’s necessary after the first 2. It’s tough to build with the last pick.

          • MAC says:
            (link)

            @CTMN:
            its teague who is actually always available at the 36 37 turn in mocks. thats why he and favors are locks there at the turn. hayward at pick 13 or 14? thats more of a reach than bledsoe, and hayward can also be had at the turn. he is actually my fallback if teague is taken there. yeah, jackson at 60 61 is another target there, along with another pg like knight and kemba. definitely insane, with drumm and gobert, but if ur punting ft, i prefer deandre over gobert. its definitely tough at pick 11 and 12 this yr. going big big there is also tough, and the fact that favors in the next turn can be had. so right now, im thinking of reaching for bledsoe there. kawhi, jimmy and klay are just not for me. id rather go draymond over them if im going big big.

            • CTMN says:
              (link)

              @MAC: No I meant Hayward at 36/37, not 12/13 lol that’s way too much of a reach.
              I haven’t done mocks, I’m surprised Teague would be there but Teague and Favors at 36/37 would be perfect, definitely what I would want.
              I agree maybe DeAndre would be better than Gobert in punt FT, I read he was actually #1 ranked last season if you discount FTs. And also his backups are Josh Smith and Chuck Hayes, so even tho they’re deeper than last year, those guys are both bad FT shooters too so there’s no reason to take DJ off just for FT purposes usually. Also, DJ fits better with Pierce in small ball than Blake Griffin at the 5 would, cause Griffin/Pierce would get killed on defense.
              I might want a guy like Jimmy just for the 5 game finals and 4 game other weeks for playoffs but yeah I’m not looking for him, Kawhi, or Klay. I’d hope Wall was there.
              I would rank my options Wall, Drummond, DJ, Millsap, Draymond in that order at 12. (Assuming people keep sleeping on Wall)

              • CTMN says:
                (link)

                @CTMN: Oh and Gobert in between DJ and Millsap on that list.

              • MAC says:
                (link)

                @CTMN:
                ok2! yeah, after teague, hayward is next there then oladipo and dragic in that order at the turn with favors. teague is there at the turn 9/10 and favors has never been taken that early in the mocks ive been. though if its an rcl league it would definitely be a differnt story. hehe. anyway, yahoo would still update their ranks, hopefully favors stay in the 50s. ha!

                defintely jordan over gobert in punt ft. it might be enticing to go drummond jordan at the first turn, but again, thinking getting a pg there is a must with favors in mind in the next turn. i like bledsoe favors over a deandre dragic to go with drumm and teague. though hoping hayward or oladipo can be had instead of dragic. its tough with miamis playoff sched.

                wings early means ur gonna miss elite pg or bigs early. they r just not for me. ill go pg bigs early.

                getting wall at 11 or 12 is a no brainer. i actually have wall over lillard. so yeah, best case scenario is having wall with drumm instead of bledsoe. id rank draymond over millsap, with gsw playoff sched over hawks there.

                • JB Gilpin

                  JB Gilpin says:
                  (link)

                  @MAC: @CTMN: @MAC: Hmmmm, interesting. Seems a tad high on both, even though i’m decent-ranked with Drumm and huge on Bledsoe. The Kyrie slow recovery is thinning out the elite PG even worse! I like CTMN’s idea of trying to trade for PG better and getting a Draymond or Jimmy butler earlier (love 5 game finals week for H2H! – and saw this was mentioned later in chain too!)

                  Wow surprised Teague is falling that far as well, I’m not huge on him due to the minutes, but have him 35 so slightly ahead of that… Maybe I am huge on him then! Hah!

                  Yeah Favors at over 50… Nuts. Wednesday’s RCL draft for my league should be interesting…

                  It’s tough with PG such a sharp dropoff yet good value at 2nd round wings. I obviously prefer great PG and bigs, but a late pick is gonna mean missing on a PG for me most likely. Here’s to hoping Wall falls to me if I have a late one…

                  • Slim

                    Slim says:
                    (link)

                    @JB Gilpin: Trying to trade for a PG is god awful annoying. Basically you have to find someone with an extra one that they can lose and still feel good about winning assists. So rare… Usually to get a PG you need to lose a PG. Nah, I’d rather get my own PGs and trade for a wing which is much much easier to do.

                    So for me… If I go Big/Wing at 12/13 then I would have no choice about 36/37 picks. They both MUST be PGs. I don’t think there will be any good assists left at pick 60. Knight and GHill are the only options that should be left and they would have to be your PG2. No Elfird, No Reggie, I really don’t like this plan. I don’t want to have to gamble on PGs late unless I have absolutely no other choice. I’ll gamble on wings all day though, there’s just so many of them.

                    I’m almost guaranteed to go big/big at 12/13 and PG/PG at 36/37 then at 60/61 there should be lots of options and I won’t be stuck being forced into taking a PG I might not want. In my ideal scenario I’m thinking…

                    Millsap, Gobert, Teague, Lowry(or Reggie, or Dragic), Clarkson, TJones.

                    I know Yahoo predraft ranks says I’m taking guys too early but they (Yahoo) will not dictate when/if I take my guys.

                    • CTMN says:
                      (link)

                      @Slim: I feel like people are overlooking Reggie though and he could be there at 60. I agree it’s definitely not easy to trade for PGs though but it might be possible if you give up a guy like Jimmy Butler and someone has 2 elite PGs that they can afford to lose one.

  6. Phranque (pronounced Frank) says:
    (link)

    Does anyone have any insight as to how Tyreke will likely be used in Nawlins? He was pretty productive last year…but there was no Jrue then and there’s a new coach now.

    It seems to me that, like Reggie J., Tyreke may be rated way low by Yahoo. Would he be a worthy PG option in the 60-70 range?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Phranque (pronounced Frank): Great question, I would guess he starts at the 3 then moves to backup PG-ish/main ball handler when Jrue is out, since Jrue is on a minutes limit and will happen a lot.

      I like Evans, I have him 75, but his upside is capped by being a bad 3PT shooter, bad Ft shooter, and too many TO. He could be decent in that range on a FT-punt team maybe, but you have to build around him.

      R-Jax will hit a couple more 3s and is better at the stripe, so I have him well ahead at 41. Yahoo has R-Jax wayyyyyyy too low.

  7. A Hill O' Beans says:
    (link)

    Hey JB, when do you think you’ll throw the 101-200 rankings into the master ranking list? I’m very interested to see Slims projections that go with your rankings.

    • Slim

      Slim says:
      (link)

      @A Hill O’ Beans: I finished up today. I imagine it could be up tomorrow. There are plenty of disagreements between his ranks and my projections. Raul Neto? Really? I’ll give him 12 minutes but I don’t think he sees that much.

      • CTMN says:
        (link)

        @Slim: Those bottom 25 guys are…

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @A Hill O’ Beans: @Slim: @CTMN: yup will be up tomorrow morning as the lead! Cmon, Neto has a shot, but could also d league… We’ll see, he’s like 195 or something haha.

  8. Vince says:
    (link)

    Hi there, it’s me again. In one of my leagues (8 team/ 9cat with TO included) someone offered me Horford+Beal for M.Ellis and Bledsoe. I am liking this offer since Horford is pretty solid, and I would love to cut my TO by trading away Ellis and Bledsoe. What do you guys think? By the way, my core players are AD/Draymond/K.Walker/Hayward/Aldridge/R.Jax/Noah.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Vince: Yo! Ehhhhh, I don’t like it. I know TO are an issue with those guys, but the rest of your core is pretty TO free, minues R Jax. With a real strain on top-end PG, I just moved Bledsoe a good bit up, and I’m not too big on Beal. I would hold off on that one, even if it means you’re projected to be pretty bad in TO. If there’s a cat to lose, it’s TO, as it means you likely have players with a lot of rock in their hands

Comments are closed.