Ah, the late-round fliers! Which I think is “fliers”. A lot of the time, I almost write it “flyers”. Zach LaVine is a late round flyer! Eesh, being a married man makes you start getting reallllll corny with the jokes.
So as I’ve mentioned a few times getting through the top 100 (Rank 1-10 | Rank 11-20 | Rank 21-50 | Rank 51-75 | Rank 76-100), there just isn’t many warm bodies out there to call “JB’s late sleepers”. And, well, a lot of that is because I have guys that are ranked in the 100s on Yahoo and ESPN in my mid-rounds (cough, Jordan Clarkson – ESPN 99 Yahoo 144, what the hey?! aherm, cough cough – I’ve caught the plague!), while just as much is the lack of sexy rookies in good situations. Jahlil Okafor is awful for fantasy. D’Angelo Russell loves talking 401ks with Josh Smith by the turnovers at the breakfast buffet. Stanley Johnson looks awesome, but Detroit has a bigger wing mix than Bdubs. Asian zing – that one my jam!
With these final rounds of players, it’s also important to factor in league size. These ranks are [hoping to tailor] for a 12-team league, so I’ll reach for a tad more upside the later we go than go for stability. Tristan Thompson is going to be mad consistent for some points and boards for the very deep leagues, but lordy he’ll be unownable in a 12er. You’re fired! Can’t believe this Trump stuff is still going on… Anyway, here’s the Top 150 for the 2015-16 Fantasy Basketball Season:
101. Aaron Gordon, Orlando Magic – Well, I guess here’s a sleeper I like! Summer ball stats in the Orlando league are very inconsequential, but three games of 21.7/11.7/2.7/1.3/1.7 was a nice little nip slip of potential. Plus he buried 6-12 treys, which is where things could get very interesting. Problem is he is still going to have a few TO, and his FT% isn’t great. That said, 72.1% from the stripe last year probably exceeded expectation. There’s going to be more growing pains and not enough touches with the starting 5, plus he’s coming off jaw surgery from a fluke injury. Right now it seems he’s penciled in to start at the 4, but it might be as Mask Gordon and we saw how bad that started for Oladipo last year! And Channing Frye is there… Worst signing ever…
102. Nikola Mirotic, Chicago Bulls – Sigh. The Mirotic Quandry. Should be a physics course! As we’ve learned in the comments, it’s hard to be “bullish on any Chicago big man”. So we’re circling back to the intro, and even though the opportunity isn’t 100% there, the upside/sexiness certainly is. There’s been a lot of clamor that Joakim Noah could come off the bench, but even if No Minutes Mirotic starts, there’s a filtering in of Noah and the forgotten-by-everyone-except-Matthew-Dellavedova Taj Gibson to clog up the bigs. Mirotic didn’t work out well at all playing the 3 last year, and even if he plays some there there’s McBuckets, Mike Should-Be-Done-Leavy, and my boyfriend Tony Snell playing SF as well. There’s a lot of run on sentences in this blurb, just to make it as obfuscated as the Bulls rotation is… But just look the per-36s for Mirotic’s nip slip and he was 18.1/8.8/2.1/1.2/1.2 with 2.2 treys and only 1.9 TO in his debut season. Only negative was 40.5% from the field. There’s no youth ahead of him long-term – I think he’s maybe top-40 in dynasty if drafting this year – but this season, it’s complicated. Starring Meryl Streep.
103. Kevin Martin, Minnesota Timberwolves – If I keep writing the blurbs this long, this will be a 10,000 word post! Time to get concise! If I had to put money on guys to get traded this year, K-Mart is easily top 2 or 3. He’s not in the final year of his deal but it’s the penultimate one, and a giant change next year looms – the expanded caps. A team trading for K-Mart would not only get him for the 2nd half, but retain him for only $7.3 mil in 16-17 which will be mad affordable – even for a 6th man. For all the boasting from Karl-Anthony Towns, c’mon, not yet Wolves fans. K-Mart’s going to score a lot of points in the first half, but then would be an ultimate sell-high as the deadline looms. There’s still enough value to take him here though. Dammit, this was just as long!
104. Michael Carter-Williams, Milwaukee Bucks – Ugh. After breaking my heart and two of my fantasy teams last year, MCW I guess has to be ranked somewhere. I think he’ll easily be consensus top-100 (Yahoo has him at 73, yeesh), but I don’t see it. Last year after moving to the Bucks – massive drops in REB/AST/3PTM. Sure the lower treys helped the FG% get over 40% (drop the friggin’ confetti), and he somehow figured out how to make FT. Really the only thing keeping him over, say, 120 for me is the steals. All the way to 2.0 a game with Milwaukee, after only 1.5 in nearly 3.5 more minutes a game in Philly. And I guess training with Jason Kidd is a plus, and I guess having a healthy offseason will help. But even with lower dimes, TO were an atrocious 3.2 per in 30:20 in Milwaukee, and there’s a giant Twerp just sitting there looming over him. The Bucks paid a first-round pick to bring in Vasquez, and Kidd has shown a penchant for benching guys not playing well. So much risk, with not enough upside given the % and TO woes. Holy hell, this is turning into War and Peace.
105. Patrick Patterson, Toronto Raptors – Pit-Pat, take if from me – I love you! Any chance to continually link Mr. Show videos… And at 1:27 it sums up Patterson to a T – “A magical, pan-sexual, non-threatening, spokesthing!” Well, as in he’s so non-controversial he’ll be a value. Not everyone outside the top-100 can be a high-flyin’ sleeper! Patterson was all the way to 88th in per-game last year, but a lot of that is his metrics-friendly, low-volume game. Hits all the cats a little bit, nice %s, never turns it over. Now with Amir Johnson gone, the only real competition is Luis Scola for the starting PF role, who would be a terrible fit next to The Luminescent Lithuanian and give the Raptors yet another non-perimeter player. Of course as we talked in the comments, DeMarre Carroll could play some 4 for an ultimate small ball line-up, but losing Amir and gaining more-of-a-SF I think gets Pit-Pat closer to 30 MPG rather than 26 we saw last year. Nothing will look too sexy, but he’ll be usable.
106. Otto Porter, Washington Wizards – I don’t think there’s huge upside for Porter either, but certainly enough to be fairly excited as he steps into the starting SF role. I wish we had seen a little further development of the peripherals – 1.6/1.1/0.8 AST/STL/BLK last year in per-36 – but he should be actually a little similar to Patterson by hitting all the cats, maintaining good %s, and not turning it over. Porter should get more swipes, Patterson certainly more treys. And Porter said he’s ready to play some stretch 4 if need be, giving the Wiz some small ball looks. Easily should play 30 MPG.
107. Rajon Rondo, Sacramento Kings – Yeah, I don’t really wanna go here, but who knows, maybe Rondo will be OK… Darren Collison is going to push for minutes, and there’s a big chance Rondo gets moved at the deadline on his one-year deal. Last year, “a disaster” doesn’t even cover it. He was Movie 43. As long as he doesn’t break his hand in the shower this time, and somehow manages to make half his FT, I guess a few dimes and steals would be worth it. It’s absurd he shot 39.7% from the stripe last year. Absurd. Wanna know what makes it more absurd? George Karl said he had a good basketball IQ.
108. Jusuf Nurkic, Denver Nuggets – The Jamba Jus is ready for an encore! At least, let’s hope… I was all primed to have him easily in the top 100, but a seemingly out-of-nowhere left patella tendon surgery in late May has put a lot of risk on those 7-foot legs. Well, his legs are probably more like 3 feet – a guy with 7 foot legs would be 15 feet tall! It was very odd the surgery didn’t happen until late-May, so something got missed by the medical staff to not have this happen right when 14-15 wrapped up. He was given a 3-4 month timetable which would have him ready for the season, but even Nurk has hinted everything will go slow. The Nugs will be tanking this year, and not rush their big. But his upside for a strong second half is worth the gamble – insane 13.9/12.5/1.6/1.7/2.2 per-36 in his rookie season at 20 years old.
109. Ersan Ilyasova, Detroit Pistons – The Six Foot Turkey! Moving to Detroit doesn’t look very scary! I mean, ummmm… Brought in to play the stretch 4 to give Drummo the entire paint, Ghostface Ily has secured the starting PF spot and is in a good rotation to bang a few treys and look flatfooted and awful on defense. More help blocks from Drummo! Ilyasova never really found a consistent stride until the second half last year, when a big boost in PT started bringing in the numbers. His FT% oddly fell to 64.5% out of nowhere (albeit in low volume), and we can’t expect many boards or defensive stats. But needing some out-of-position treys late, he should be able to come somewhat close to his post-ASB 1.9 treys and 14.5 Pts he had last season.
110. Tony Parker, San Antonio Spurs – TP has been, well, TP as his career dwindles down, but I’m not hitting the ignore button completely. Sure you can only optimistically expect 70 games at maybe 28 MPG, and the dimes have fallen off a cliff. But I think he can replicate last year, given the metrics don’t give him a good overall value, plus the teensiest of upside to just dump the ball off to Aldridge for a quick mid-range pop. It’s the best roster the Spurs have had in years, so there’s a glimmer. Obviously, this is still going to price me out in most drafts though.
111. D’Angelo Russell, Los Angeles Lakers – Meh, I’m already a little apprehensive to even have him this high as I write this, since I’m likely passing in all leagues. The early low pre-ranks on Jordan Clarkson have been criminal, and I don’t see Russell facilitating that much in this rookie season. D’Angelo Barksdale looked lost in the professional Towers during Summer Ball and his game took him to The Pit. I guess he has enough upside to take the flyer, aherm, flier at this point, however TO and inconsistency will be frustrating you to the Kim Dickens….
112. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Detroit Pistons – I might be married, but my KCP addiction will never end! I might as well make an Ashley Madison profile, and put just “KCP” in my fetishes. Although who knows what KCP might stand for in S&M terms… Stan Van has said earlier this offseason he has 4 locked in starters – glossing over SF – so KCP should be pretty solidified in the starting SG role. Even though he’s very unspectacular, the metrics like him at 137th in per-game last year, and he’s durable as he played every game last year. Of course, when you do nothing but camp for 3s, it’s easier to avoid the grind… Joking aside, there were a lot of encouraging signs post-ASB – he shot much better from the field, took a bigger percentage of shots inside the stripe as he created more of his own shot, and bumped from 1.1 to 1.8 assists with no change in TO. And after a slow start in STL, got those up to 1.3 per post-ASB. He’s still fairly ThrAGNOFfy, but there’s upside.
113. UPDATE! I had him 146, and kept his original blurb since the news Kyrie Irving might be out until January and is doubtful to start the year came out a mere hour before this posted. I already factored a big chunk of lost Kyrie time! Mo is looking mad interesting.
Mo Williams, Cleveland Cavaliers – Here’s an interesting name for your final spot, especially with your final pick out of the gate in 12ers. Kyrie is off breaking his kneecap (gulp), and they’ll want to limit his minutes, probably for the whole season – especially early. Mo showed last year he can still ball at a high level (who had Mo as a guy to score 50 last year?!) with the Wolves then after the trade to the Hornets, and he’ll get a boatload of backup run. Plus he can play some combo sets with Irving, as JR and Shump can swing to some SF when LeBron sits. I really could see Mo getting to 25 minutes per with some nice PTS/AST/3PTM.
114. Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics – Ugh, I’m just not a Smart guy… Poor wording! My jersey is for “Rod Smart”, not Marcus! But he hate Marcus because of dramatic inconsistencies, and the Celtics stubbornly trying to pound their square peg into his round hole. Even worse wording! Smart was a dynamite slasher in college, but they’ve told him to virtually only take threes (4.1 of his 7.1 shots per game were treys in his rookie season), tanking his FG% to 36.7%. Even Ricky Rubio is like, “ay dios mio!” The steals will be nice, but that’s all the 2nd-year upside I really see. I think there’s a ton of IT2/3 on the floor.
115. Trey Burke, Utah Jazz – Man, this means I might actually have to draft Burke on some teams this year… I don’t know if I like 15-16 anymore! Dante Exum sadly tore his ACL in some international ball, giving the Jazz nothing but a flaming dumpster fire at PG. Burke has occasionally shown some flashes from the dumpster fire, but it’s usually putrid smoke. Don’t sleep too hard on Raul Neto in deeper leagues either – much better defender and facilitator. He’ll sneak into my top 200 as an upside dart throw.
116. Roy Hibbert, Los Angeles Lakers – Well, being the lowest on Hibbert the past few years has worked out pretty well! And if for some forlorn reason he stayed in Indy, he’d be even lower. But maybe a change of scenery will do him good, as in, keep him ownable all year in fantasy. The blocks fell to 1.6 last year – really the only reason you want him – and he doesn’t rebound well while shooting sub-45% the past 3 seasons. I bet this prices me out again.
117. C.J. McCollum, Portland Trailblazers – I have a suspicion McCollum might be one of the most over-hyped “sleepers” this year. Don’t get me wrong, I think he will easily have a career year for the Blazers as they have a terrible line-up and will want to run their younguns. But how good can McCollum really be? Per-36s took a nice step up last year, but 15.7/3.4/2.4/1.6/0.3 in per-36 last year with 2 treys isn’t exactly teeming with potential superstardom. Plus he’s had his share of injuries and is already 23. He should get a big 6th man role and the backup PG minutes, but I don’t know if it’s enough to warrant a buzzy top-100 pick.
118. Avery Bradley, Boston Celtics – Here’s a good back-to-back comparison where league size would change my mind. In a 10 or 12er, I’d shoot for McCollum, but deeper I’d take the safer Bradley. Hah, very unintentionally on my part Bradley was 117 in per-game on Basketball Monster, which was where I had him pre-Mo Williams bump! With a few more minutes in the second half, Bradley saw nice jumps in his minimal dimes but mainly in the steals getting up to 1.4. He doesn’t really offer much upside, but he’ll score a little and steal a little, and I think is the only Celtic assured to play over 30 MPG.
119. Jabari Parker, Milwaukee Bucks – I bet the name recognition will have Jabari going higher, but I also bet if he has an ADP in the top 100, he will be the most dropped top-100 drafted guy in October. The GM of the Bucks and of Jurassic Park John Hammond said that if Jabari is healthy enough to play 20 minutes, they’ll play him 10. Eesh. Parker was starting to come around in his rookie campaign, but it still wasn’t anywhere close to the impact I thought he’d have off the bat. He started scoring some more as the season wore on due to ditching the deep ball. The upside for the second half is worth a shot, but the fact you have to be so patient isn’t really worth a higher pick in a shallower league.
120. Jose Calderon, New York Knicks – Lordy, remember when I liked him heading into last year?! Luckily I said he was droppable pretty much right after he got hurt warming up on opening night (?!?!?!), but that didn’t excuse the wasted draft pick! Since we’re more-or-less out of PG, I think Calderon is worth a look in the late-rounds, even with a 26-28 minute cap. I don’t think a backcourt of Grant and Langston Galloway is good enough to start, so Calderon should be starting and fall into a few dimes and threes. It’s uninspiring, but usable.
121. Ed Davis, Portland Trailblazers – I think the sleeper buzz might be louder for Plumlee, but I’m taking Davis first in the who-the-hell-knows Portland frontcourt. Over his last 54 games – most of last year after getting really inconsistent run early – 9.1/7.9/1.4/0.6/1.3 with virtually no TO and 60% from the field. That was in only 23.7 MPG. The near 50% FT rate is a concern, it’s been trending the wrong way three straight years, but there’s upside for a 12/10/2/1/2 sort of line. Especially intriguing are the steals from a big. At 26, he’s one of the older bigs in the rotation and there’s concern they start playing Noah Vonleh or Meyers Leonard a lot in the second half, so season-long I do have doubts on Davis. But I have a feeling he’ll be on a lot of my teams early on.
122. Luol Deng, Miami Heat – Speaking of uninspiring but usable, there’s my entire blurb for Luol Deng! He seemingly was a disaster last year, but the metrics liked him enough for an 89 per-game valuation since he scored a little with very few TO. Justise Winslow does loom, but he doesn’t look ready to take a big role just yet. With Bosh healthy, a full year of Dragic, and hopefully a decent enough run for Wade, there should be enough openings to keep Deng usable, as he struggled down the stretch last year with a drop in FG% and points.
123. Ryan Anderson, New Orleans Pelicans – If only the Ryno could stay healthy-o… After a redonkulous small-sample run in 13-14, Anderson obviously wasn’t the same last year, and is off several injuries, mainly a back surgery. That said, Gentry wants the Pels to run up tempto, which would suggest another big role off the bench flanking Omer Asik. Ryno is another guy I’d take the shot in in shallowers, but no way I’d want to invest too much in a deeper. There’s enough upside to be valuable, but he could miss half a season again and it wouldn’t shock anyone.
124. John Henson, Milwaukee Bucks – If only the Bucks would commit to a starting spot for Henson-o… Once again looking at a bench role without a clear workload, Henson’s upside is capped by a team that absolutely hates him. But Henson does have a big thing going for him – Jabari needing to be eased in. I don’t know if it’s an optimal line-up – especially in a league embracing small ball – but Henson can play next to Greg Monroe and the Bucks have a real lack of depth for other PF options. Going from 1.7 blocks in 26:31 in 13-14 to 2.0 blocks in 18:20 last year is absolutely ridiculous, but he is limited offensively and at the stripe. A great late swatter that I could see getting higher in drafts by need, Henson in seasonal terms is going to lose a lot of PT in the second half and lacks upside in the other cats.
125. Nik Stauskas, Philadelphia 76ers – Long live ThrAGNOF! And this late, I think you can start nabbing the upside-y ones. Projected to start, the Sixers really need a deep-baller to spread the floor with Lord Covington, especially if Wroten is going to start at PG with his sub-25% 3PTM in his career. Things didn’t work for Sauce Castillo in Sacramento, except the fact he got one of the best nickname origin stories of 14-15. Ben McLemore decided to be decent at basketball pushing Stauskas from any sort of consistent role, and I think his bad FG% was a little too small-sample. He won’t do enough beyond score and hit treys, but he could put up more points than people expect.
126. Zaza Pachulia, Dallas Mavericks – I don’t see any way he’s not entrenched as the Mavs center, and even though his MPG and blocks will be microscopic, his pizza face of ugliness won’t be! Whoa, too mean JB, too mean… He’s very atypical for a big, no blocks and a bad FG%, but does give you dimes and steals with a good FT%. He’s a PG stuck in a center’s body! I you got swatters early, and as you can see there’s no PG depth left, Zaza could be a good final pick. I could easily see a spike to a career-best 3 AST, kicking out to all the playmakers.
127. Jahlil Okafor, Philadelphia 76ers – Nope. Nope, nope, nope, nope, nope. Won’t be even a consideration on any of my teams, as he’ll be one of the worst over-drafted rookies in recent memory. That is, for 9-cat fantasy purposes, he might be OK in real-life terms. Where do we start? Well, let’s just go through the categories: FG% – a plus, FT% – catastrophic, 3PTM – zero, PTS – Slim has him projected right now 17.0, I think that’s crazy talk. We’ll say 15 so decent there, REB – a plus, AST – nada, STL – maybe 0.5 so a push, BLK – this is a biggie, I think it’s well under 1 BPG. In 153 summer league minutes across 5 games, yes SUMMER LEAGUE!, he got a total of 4 blocks. Four! TO – averaged 4.6 TO a game in summer ball, with at least 4 giveaways every game. For a big, he’s going to be a negative there. So you’re telling me he’s going to be good at FG% and REB and OK at PTS? While killing you at FT%, being awful with TO, and not getting blocks?! It’s not going to go well for 9-cat.
128. Mason Plumlee, Portland Trailblazers – Well, someone has to play for the Blazers, right?! Given all the opportunities in the world last year (seriously, playing for Team USA?!), Plumlee was horrible on the Nets battling foul trouble and a FT stroke that hasn’t improved much from college. And what does he get for failing miserably? Maybe even a bigger opportunity! Sometimes you just get lucky for a situation in the NBA… He should have plenty of minutes, plenty of time to board, but the blocks took a step back last year to only 1.3… in per-36 minutes!!!! In a deeper league I’d probably let someone else take this risk, but 10 or 12er, worth an upside look with a final pick.
129. Eric Gordon, New Orleans Pelicans – So can a vet with a billion injuries to worry about be considered a “sleeper”? Well, no, but how about adding them into that flier category? After all – and this shocked me – he’s only 26, and will be right back out there as the Pels starting 2. He really came on in the second half last year too, hitting a silly 2.7-6.1 treys (44.6%) for 14.3 PPG. Add that with nearly 4 dimes a game, and there’s some really value here. Of course, his overall FG% was still awful (how he had a 3PTM% so much higher than his FG% is beyond me), and he’s missed nearly half his games the past 4 seasons. Then again, it’s late in the draft and maybe you get 70 games out of him in a fantasy-friendly, uptempo new regime.
130. Stanley Johnson, Detroit Pistons – Another rook with massive buzz, StanJo took Summer Ball by storm by putting up a gaudy 16.2/6.8/2.0/1.8/1.0 slash in 5 appearances, with minimal TO and hitting 57.7% from the field. Known more for his defensive prowess in college, his D and malleability at both wing positions will certainly get him in StanVan’s rotation. The question is just how much, as Marcus Morris seems primed to start, and there’s still Jodie Meeks‘ terrible contract to give some minutes to. Another late-rounder I’d take a shot on in a shallower league; I don’t think his buzz or upside is worth a much higher pick in a deeper. Murky situation.
131. Jerian Grant, New York Knicks – ACC and March Madness are about all the college ball I watch, and I never saw much out of Grant to buy him as an NBA contributor. But the Knicks seem to really like the kid, and with only Langston Galloway and Calderon’s minutes cap the other major-minute PGs and backup SGs on the roster, Grant is going to get the run. And when the Knicks want to go small ball and move Melo to the 4, Arron Afflalo can move to the 3 and we see two of those three PG/SG together in combo guard sets. It certainly helps Grant is the biggest of the 3 (6’5), with some range and upside for a few dimes. I don’t think it’ll be too consistent, but he’s got upside to run away with the role (pushing Galloway away from a rotation spot) for some treys and decent AST contributions.
132. Jordan Hill, Indiana Pacers – My love for Myles Turner will ring eternal, but other than him, I think Hill easily gets the most minutes at PF/C. Even though Georgia is apparently a haven for NBA arrests lately, I don’t think Hill zooms into a sure-fire, big minute starting spot – especially after showing he couldn’t handle a 30+ MPG run with the Lakers. However, he’s likely buried on draft boards and I think could come close to the 12.0/7.9/1.5/0.5/0.7 slash we saw last year. Well, maybe knock him down to 10 Pts.
133. Greivis Vasquez, Milwaukee Bucks – It’s not just my lack of faith for MCW, but the Bucks paid a first round pick to get him, given it’s lottery protected. Still, Vasquez might out-minutes MCW some nights when MCW is in turnover heaven, and The Twerp can play some combo guard 2 as well. As a starter last year, Vasquez showed he could still be decent, putting up a 10.9/3.0/4.4/0.7/0.1 slash, with 1.9 treys and only 1.4 TO. So basically, he’s a PG who can consistently hit treys and not turn it over, aka MCW’s super-villian. Look out for The Twerp!
134. Dennis Schroder, Atlanta Hawks – Apparently it’s a run on backup PG! But both of these last two guys will play some combo guard, and while Jeff Teague is awesome as all hell, the Hawks have shown they’re going to run their uber-talented German like a Panzer. Well, I guess that wouldn’t be running really… Per-36s took a big leap in his sophomore campaign, and in a 10-game 29:13 MPG starting sample – 14.1/3.4/7.7/0.7/0.0. It did come with 3.3 TO and not enough treys (0.7), but he reminds me a ton of Reggie Jackson. And with Kyle Korver recovering from two major surgeries entering his age-34 season, there’s a nice opportunity for a lot of combo SG minutes. With more treys and less TO risk, he’d be higher.
135. Timofey Mozgov, Cleveland Cavaliers – Healthcare.Mozgov certainly had some lengthy load times whence moved to the Cavs, spending a lot of time at the Cleveland Clinic. As in, on the bench, not hurt. Metaphors going downhill this many deep into the ranks! He wasn’t playing long stints in Denver either, but MPG fell under 25 per, and I don’t see that changing much. 10.6/6.9/0.8/0.4/1.2 with the Cavs, and I actually see that as his ceiling with Tristan Thompson picking up a lot of small ball C minutes, since to beat the dead horse, it’s a common theme in the NBA.
136. Tony Wroten, Philadelphia 76ers – Who’s ready for a good-ol’ ratios rape?! I think it’s a little surprising Wroten is expected to be healthy to start the year, but a little less surprising he’s expected to start. Eesh, remember when Isaiah Canaan was a thing?! As a starter last year, Wroten was awesome with the popcorn numbers for 18.3/3.4/6.3/1.9/0.3. But as we all know, it came on a 41.5 FG%, a pretty high volume 65% from the stripe, then the biggie – 4.5 TO. Yikes! The Sixers sure have some category killing starters… The reason I think he’s worth owning though is I think he can get the FG% to 43-44. I see them telling him to scrap shooting deep balls with Lord Covington and Sauce Castillo able to stretch the floor. Then again, it’s not a slam dunk since he drives so much and Noel and Okafor will be clogging the middle, so maybe he mid-ranges a ton. This is going to be a weird Sixers O…
137. Justin Anderson, Dallas Mavericks – The opportunity isn’t 100% clear, but the more you consider the status of the Mavs roster, the easier it is to see a pretty substantial role for Mr. Anderson. My name is Neo! Wesley Matthews might not even make it for the opener and will be eased in at that, and Chandler Parsons is off arthroscopic knee surgery with back issues the past few years. Carlisle has said Anderson will play both the 2 and 3, and other than combo guard sets with the other PG (Barea, Devin Harris, Felton, ugh), the Mavs have no one else to play wing besides the hurt vets. Anderson isn’t gonna light it up on O, but did score 17.5 a game in summer league with a ton of treys and minimal TO. Certainly worth a last pick flier, especially early on with Matthews slowly worked in.
138. Dwight Howard, Houston Rockets – Aight, aight, aight, I guess Howard has to go somewhere… Sure the Dwight supporters could blame his even further regression on his knee issues, but there’s no way I’m touching Dwight in 15-16. The big thing for me is he just isn’t a blocker anymore. Swats fell to an anemic 1.3 last year, and sure the MPG had a little influence, but is he really a 32-33 MPG guy anymore? I don’t think so, especially with the small ball theme and the fact he’s awful at the stripe. The high TO are still there too, so he’s pretty much Jahlil Okafor with more injury risk and a higher-volume FT% drain. Avoid.
139. Kelly Olynyk, Boston Celtics – Olynyk of Nazareth always seems to flash potential, but just can’t end up feeding the masses with enough loaves or fishes in his fantasy line. I think his multi-cat upside is worth a flier pick at the end of 12ers, even if he’s in a horrible rotation of bigs in B-rad’s system. As a starter last year, 13 games at 26 minutes per for 11.2/5.8/1.6/1.0/0.5, but that came with a few too many TO (2.0). Actually, that’s about all the negative you can say… Hit 1.1 treys as a starter in those 13 games, while keeping the FG% at 51.9%. Even with the scary rotation, the one thing that has him worth drafting in standard for me is he is he can kinda fit as a small ball center with the treys. It’s hard to project more than 25 minutes per, but he’s the only PF/C I’ll take from Boston in the top 150, even if some of them look better with their shirts off…
140. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Charlotte Hornets – Get me some Extenz! 4 years $52 mil extension for the D specialist in the past week, WHICH IS STILL MORE THAN MONTA ELLIS! Teams locking up role players before caps expand is smart, and even though his defensive, multi-cat per-36s lost some allure, remember he was in the starting unit more and should give you some nice boards again. He’s a better fit for deep leagues, but we’re running out of the bigger upside lottery tickets.
141. Omer Asik, New Orleans Pelicans – Unlike a box of chocolates, you pretty much know what you’re gonna get. 25-26 minutes, 8/10 with almost a block. Right at the fringe of usability. Ryno will get his minutes off the bench, but they’ll have Asik out there bangin’ the bigger centers to keep the oft-injured Anderson and Brow healthy.
142. Marcus Morris, Detroit Pistons – I’ll take StanJo first in standard for the upside, but in redraft deep leagues ala 14+, I’ll take Morris. The sudden trade to Detroit made the twins unhappy, but he seems penciled into the starting SF spot and will dot the perimeter alongside Ily and KCP. Morris had career-bests in Pts/Reb while tying his career mark in treys in 14-15, and in say, 26 MPG should be right at last year’s numbers which was 146 in per-game. Nice ThrAGNOF with a few boards.
143. Kyle O’Quinn, New York Knicks – What can I say, I’m a sucker for KOQ! Yikes, I better not get that bumper sticker! It’s a coin flip between KOQ or Porzy, but I think KOQ gets more minutes with roughly the same per-36 valuation. In per-36s, O’Quinn’s blocks took a big hit, but he had a wildly inconsistent role in backup minutes in Orlando, and the Knicks paid him to play. Phil J said O’Quinn can play “power forward and/or backup center” which kinda sounds like there’s a chance he could start at the 4, at least initially. I don’t see them starting Derrick Williams or opening games with Melo at the 4, then Porzingis should come off the bench. The Irishman’s deep stroke is a little too line-drivey, but he should bang a couple treys and get some blocks, while being a good FT shooter.
144. Dion Waiters, Oklahoma City Thunder – I’ve never been a Waiters guy in fantasy even though he’s a solid real-life player, and with OKC coming in healthy, it’s really hard to see him getting many shots with the starters. That said, he should be able to lead some second unit minutes at the wing, and should be pretty close to 10 points with a trey and a steal per. ThrAGNOFfy, but usable.
145. Gerald Henderson, Portland Trailblazers – Here’s a fun Hendo stretch – 18.9/4.0/3.4/1.0/0.6 with a 4.9-5.8 FT%. That was the post-ASB in… 12-13. My, how players can regress… And now he’s off a congenital hip issue, so this could be his last shot to put up any numbers. Hate the player, love the situation. I don’t think McCollum can play starting SG any time soon, plus Hendo could move to the 3 in certain situations when they go uber-small. The one, very minimal upward trend is the treys, which I think can near a 3PTM a game with some points and decent nice FT% volume.
146. Brandon Jennings, Detroit Pistons – I might argue BJ has the widest range of outcomes this year for any fantasy basketball player. At his healthiest and at his peak he could be a 3rd or 4th rounder, or he could never be the same off the Achilles tear and barely get off the bench. Or he could get traded to a team who loses a PG and be usable in the 2nd half. Who really knows? He might do just enough as a combo guard to stay ownable with upside as your final 12 team pick while in Detroit, but in shallower I’m not burning a roster spot. In a deeper, it’s unreliable any earlier as well, unless there’s deep benches for stashing.
147. Tony Allen, Memphis Grizzlies – BORING! Well, the metrics like him as he was 94th in per-game last year, as he had some nice runs at times. The 2.0 steals per were a career-high, but that seems fluky high and he’s decided to blow at the FT line late in his career. A steals specialist, he’s more a fit for deepers than a final spot in 12ers, but should be on rosters needing a steals boost with their final pick.
148. David West, San Antonio Spurs – Maybe I’m in the minority, but I think West is still going to be somewhat usable on his vet minimum contract with the Spurs. Sure he’s just as old and boring as Duncan and L.A., but when the Spurs are beating teams down, I think they run him just like a younger second-unit player. West is a big who can pass, so I don’t think it’s outlandish to see a 9/6/2.5/0.5/0.5 line as a leader with the backups at both PF/C in 22-23 MPG. Low end multi-cat.
149. Frank Kaminsky, Charlotte Hornets – Sure I could see him getting the flier pick a few rounds earlier, but I think he’s an awful fit with the Hornets. Playing him next to Big Al, it would be one of the slowest PF/C combos in NBA history, specifically for defense. He’s way too skinny to play backup C (why they brought in Spencer Hawes), and there’s still the mix of Cody Zeller and Marvin Williams at the 4. It’s crowded, and I don’t think Frank the Stank is any different than those guys. I don’t think the blocks translate from college, I doubt he gets over 25 minutes per, and he wasn’t that great in Summer Ball given he played a ton of minutes and was 2-3 years older than most of the competish.
150. Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks – Man, if they gave Porzy 30 minutes out of the gate, he’d approach #100 or maybe even get into the 90s. But as it stands now, Phil J said “it would be great if KP could get as much as 20 minutes a game early in the season, plus maybe a few more later when he’s acclimated to the NBA game.” That kinda sounds like it’ll be in the teens for a while, and in 12ers that’s just not worth drafting. Certainly keeping a keen eye open as he develops, as he should get a trey and a swat per game when he gets the minutes, while making his FT. In deep leagues with a big enough bench, I’m definitely hoarding.
Whew, and there you go! And big news – we’re launching the RCLs early next week! Hopefully on Monday everything will be ready to go. And we’ll finalize 150-200 next week as well, along with update the Master Standings. Happy offseason, Razzball Nation!