Run The Numbers: Know What Changes are Sustainable

November 9, 2017 | Run the Numbers |

Part of fantasy basketball is forming a team using the predictable stats in a way that maximizes your roto points or head-to-head category wins. Another part is getting the less predictable stats right more often than your competition, whether that means you’re benefiting from an increase in value or avoiding a decrease.

It’s early, but I thought I’d take a look at what the biggest differences are in this season’s stats versus last season’s by using the ESPN Player Rater averages (per-game).

Aaron Gordon. This season’s highest leaper.

First, a quick detour while I’m talking player rater. Here’s something it teaches us that we should keep in mind. Many people think of rankings as linear. Like, the best player is the same amount better than the 5th player as the 5th player is better than the 9th player. Not so, and we see the difference especially among the top few players when we look at their overall rating. Like with most data sets, there are outliers. That’s these fantasy stars. The top five players with their per-game ratings in each of the past two seasons:

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Run The Numbers: Build a Dynasty

November 2, 2017 | Run the Numbers | 2 Comments

by: Tad

I love music. Fortunately, my young daughter does, too. We started her early on all sorts of stuff, but she eventually started requesting almost exclusively “girl songs.” So, I started combing through my CDs and mp3s for our daily drive to school, finding a decent amount of great female singers, mainly from the 90s. She really took to some (Gwen Stefani, Shania Twain), but not as much to others that I’d hoped she would (The Cranberries, Veruca Salt). We added in some more current stuff that she loves (Taylor Swift, Meghan Trainor), and we have a great time. Now, I know there’s a good chance this isn’t resonating with you as much as it would if I said I’d kept trying to slip in more funk (she likes “Car Wash” and “Jungle Boogie”, at least), rock (Down on the Corner is popular with her, but there are only a few songs by Disturbed that are appropriate for four year-olds!), and rap (“Tricky” was a favorite for a while, fortunately), but stick with me, please. Because, I found something very enlightening when I introduced the very, very 90s classic, “Stay”, by Lisa Loeb. Was it that we only hear what we want to? That we won’t live forever? No, it’s this powerful line:

“You said you caught me ’cause you want me, and one day you’ll let me go. You try to give away a keeper, or keep me ’cause you know you’re just so scared to lose.”

It’s like a record scratch every time I hear that line. YOU TRY TO GIVE AWAY A KEEPER??? She was brilliantly pointing out that YOU DON’T JUST GIVE AWAY A KEEPER! But at the same time, you don’t keep a player only because you’re scared to lose! Such wisdom. For decades, I swear I didn’t know that lovely song was about fantasy basketball keeper leagues.

Lisa Loeb. Fantasy Oracle.

While we’re still quite a few games away from a large enough sample of current season stats to really trust them, let’s talk keeper/dynasty strategy (dynasty being a league in which you keep a large amount of your team for next season). I thought I’d share some tips and have some fun looking back at what we thought of past rookies so that we don’t get overly excited about these 19 year-olds that we’re currently trusting to save our teams.

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The Numbers Game – Trades, Waives, And …

February 24, 2017 | Fantasy Basketball Daily Notes | 12 Comments

by: JG

… A Long Ass post trade deadline analysis (couldn’t come up with a word that rhymes with automobiles). I’ll dive deep into a couple of trades (Boogie and Nerlens Noel). I’ll also cover the much hyped but somewhat boring (thanks to Boston, Indiana & Chicago!) trade deadline that has come and gone.

Oh and by the way, if you’d rather just listen to an analysis instead of read and see some copy/pasted stats from NBA.COM, just go ahead and listen to JB’s podcast.

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The Numbers Game – Trade Action Heating Up

February 16, 2017 | Fantasy Basketball Daily Notes | 6 Comments

by: JG

With this being the NBA All-Star Weekend, our typical weekend streamer options post will take a backseat to some fantasy implications of any trades that have (and will) occur with the trade deadline coming next week. There’s been a couple of trades that already happened. I was hoping to get a glimpse on all of them but looks like the players involved in the ORL-TOR trade didn’t suit up for their new teams.

I said fantasy implications, but let me just add to the growing voices that are asking the Magic management-WTF?! You trade Victor Oladipo, a near solid (at the very least pretty darn serviceable) stretch 4 in Ersan Ilyasova, the #11 pick (Domantas Sabonis) for Serge Ibaka which you in turn trade for Terrence Ross and TOR’s 1st round pick which is probably no earlier than the 20th pick. It doesn’t take a math genius to figure out that ORL traded away all those essentially for Ross and that 1st round pick. No disrespect to Ross but seriously?! </rant>

So, with both Ibaka and Ross not playing last night, we can only speculate as to see how they could initially be utilized in their respective teams.

Let’s start with Ross: I think he will end up being the starting SF. The way I see it the starting lineup will be this:

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Dynasty Deep Dive: What’s That Coming Over The Hill…Is It A Monster?

December 31, 2016 | Dynasty Deep Dive | 2 Comments

by: Craig Bozic

Happy weekend Razzball nation, and on the eve of the new year I thought I would bring you something a little different and closer to home for a change. So what is your New Year’s resolution in fantasy? Maybe you have promised yourself to be a little more patient and not to panic by week 3; maybe you have decided not to overvalue shiny young toys; or maybe like me you have decided not to write off 30-somethings in the NBA for your fantasy team. Whatever your New Year’s resolution be sure to check out all the good work from my cohorts here at Razzball nation to help guide you to the same level of success we all enjoyed in 2016.

So what of this week’s article, and why do we have characters from the hit Disney movie ‘Monsters Inc’ as the lead image?………….Well hopefully that is a clue that you can put your oxygen tanks away as we return to the fantasy surface for just a short while, and for the last time in 2016. If your team is in need of some help, or maybe you are looking to remain dominant, then keep reading as this will hopefully allow you to move closer to an attempt to tip the scales (in a good way, and not from the Christmas booze and turkey) as I guide you through a couple of targets of mine for the second half of the NBA season:

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BUY/SELL: Week 1, The Fun’s Begun!

November 1, 2016 | Fantasy Basketball Buy/Sell | 34 Comments

by: Dan A

I’ll admit it: I’m rusty. I took the off-season lightly, expected my natural talent to take me through the early season, and I’ve been huffing and puffing up and down the keyboard this week, trying to earn my contract. Can’t stay in the show too long with that attitude, you gotta earn it. “Stay hungry, young blood!”, my Nanna always used to say! That, and: “Don’t trust a fart when running a marathon”. I don’t really know why that was a go-to for her, but she stood by that pearl, so I will as well. We can see that there are some NBA ballers who had a few too many Mai-Tai’s on the beach when they too should have been in the gym, while others were hungry, working on their craft. And while it may be a touch too early to be blowing up your squad, we have been advised to not trust a fart when running a marathon, do with that what you will. So let’s take a look at some cats who might be worth a deuce:

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Dynasty Deep Dive – The Journey Begins

October 29, 2016 | Dynasty Deep Dive | 28 Comments

by: Craig Bozic

Image result for wade baldwin iv grizzlies

Razzball nation, It’s time!!

After going cold turkey for what feels like ages, hoops is back, and what a great feeling it is. The arrival of the basketball season also marked the start of a new era in the Bozic household with the arrival of a new baby girl; and despite being a tall and heavy baby, we decided to hold off on naming the baby Bismack Bozic for gender’s sake.

So three days into the new season (and overreaction territory) and we have already seen some significant action. The Lakers started with a bang in the Luke Walton era by beating the Rockets in their opener. Myles Turner took off in an overtime win against the Mavericks to the tune of 30 points, 16 rebounds, 4 blocks and 2 steals. Roy Hibbert still might have something in the tank with the Byron Scott disaster behind him (although exited last night with a sore knee), and oh, surprise surprise Kawhi Leonard is very good.

But you’re not here reading this for me to tell you that a first round talent is very good, so let us venture into those ‘way too early to overreact’ rookie performances from the first few days of the season:

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It All Starts Here!

October 25, 2016 | Fantasy Basketball Daily Notes | 127 Comments

by: JB Gilpin

The season is here, the season is here! Get out your favorite throwback NBA jersey and your fantasy stat-calculating abacuses (abaci?!), because fantasy basketball starts tonight! If you could pick any throwback jersey, just for aesthetic sake, which jersey would you go with? For me, gimme those old school Nugs jerseys!

nugs-throwbacks

Doesn’t beat that right there! It’s so 80s it makes me want to watch Stranger Things for the 3rd time!

On the docket tonight, we have the Knicks going to Cleveland with the Cavs getting their rings, Utah going to Portland to battle it out in the Northwest, and then the best game of the night – the Spurs going to Golden State and beating the Warriors on the road to send Dubs fans into a panic! I’m planning on staying up all night to watch that game, so if I’m a little cranky tomorrow morning, it’s probably because the Spurs lost and I’m dehydrated after drinking 3 pots of coffee…

We’re stoked for another huge season at Razzball, and looking forward to our biggest season yet! If you missed our scheduling preview post for Razzball Basketball’s 2016-17 content, you can check it out here, and be sure to welcome in our new staff with as many comments as you can muster. Not unlike the Knicks, we have a Super Team assembled for 2016-17! Let’s get this ish going!

Here’s a few notes for the games tonight, along with a few final thoughts from the preseason (a lot of injury notes we just discussed on the Pod this morning, so be sure to give a listen!):

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Rankings, Complete! Top 200 For 2016-17 Fantasy Basketball

September 16, 2016 | Fantasy Basketball Daily Notes | 37 Comments

by: JB Gilpin

We did it! YES WE CAN!! Make rankings great again! Oh man, I’m ready for election season to be over… But I’m even more ready to have my top 200 out into the world!

So I don’t really have a sound philosophy for these final ranks… We do all of our rankings for 12-team, 9-cat H2H, since that’s how we play our Razzball Commenter Leagues. Shameless promo time! We need more RCL Players out there in Razzball Nation! Just follow that link and either start up or join an open league today! Anywho, in a 12-team RCL league (13 roster spots), you’re only drafting 156 players, so most of these ranks are guys you’re not drafting. Do I rank guys all as sleepers for your final pick? I’m not sure that really helps anyone. So the final ranks here are a blend of sleeper potential, and possible last-roster-spot-usability for a specific build. Is Arron Afflalo REALLY going to be your last pick? Meh, probably not, but maybe he has a hot month and it could be the first month! You never know… If you’re still catching up, check out all our ranks in the Top-10, Top-25, Top-50, Top-75, Top-100 & Top 150 which you can also find linked above in the 2016-17 Ranks menu. Here’s our final big rankings post, the Top 200 for the 2016-17 Fantasy Basketball Season:

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Rankings, Con[something]! Top 150 For 2016-17 Fantasy Basketball

September 9, 2016 | Fantasy Basketball Daily Notes | 104 Comments

by: JB Gilpin

It’s late-round magic time! And by late-round Magic, I’m not talking about Stephen Zimmerman! Who? Exactly…

As we hit the trip-digs in picks, it’s time to go all-out for your guys. In standard leagues, you’re hoping to maybe hit a home run on one of your final 3-4 picks, and the others flame out immediately. Why? Because you want to know for sure who you need to hold on to and have quick cuts for the first wave of wire gold. Maybe I’m overly pessimistic, maybe you’re hoping for 2 to work, but all we really want to know is “answers”. I still do my ranks as best as I can to signify “seasonal-value”, but I might get a little crazier with risk than stick with the status quo come draft day and the clock winding down.

If you’re catching up, check out all our ranks in the Top-10, Top-25, Top-50, Top-75 & Top-100. Now it’s time to get into the fun sleeper land. Here’s the Top 150 for the 2016-17 Fantasy Basketball Season:

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Kristaps Pours It On The Bulls

March 24, 2016 | Fantasy Basketball Daily Notes |

by: Peter Kap

The precursor to the much-hyped Clippers and Warriors game was the game between the Bulls and Knicks. On paper, this wasn’t the best choice by ESPN, considering the Knicks are out of the playoffs and the Bulls are competing for the 8^th spot.

However, it featured two of the best, youngest international stars. Rookie Kristaps Porzingis dunked and shot his way to 29 points and 10 rebounds. He may have hit the so-called “rookie wall,” but he still contributes enough in a variety of categories to matter in fantasy for the playoffs.

Nikola Mirotic almost single handedly brought the Bulls back in the 4^th quarter. He knocked down 9-13 from downtown, on his way to 35 points and 6 rebounds off the bench. Can you name the last Bull to knock down 8 threes in a game? Ben Gordon did it in 2008-09. While Gordon had a serviceable career, I hope both Mirotic and Porzingis have better careers than Gordon. Based on Wednesday, their futures look very bright.

Now only the other nightly notables:

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The Playoffs Are Here! …and the 7 Ahead

March 14, 2016 | Fantasy Basketball Daily Notes | 45 Comments

by: JB Gilpin

It’s hard going into the fantasy playoffs without thinking of that cliche soundbit over and over… I feel like the dude from Pi trying to write an open to this, the drill is plugged in!

But seriously, if you’re still reading at this point in the season, there’s a 95% chance you’re in the fantasy playoffs or in the running to win your Roto league. The other 5% of you… I love you. Thanks for reading until the bitter end!

As with the advice you’ll see anywhere, now is the time to move on from anything that isn’t nailed down, no more stashing unless you have a bye, and it’s week-to-week, all-hands-on-deck (can-I-come-up-with-any-more-linked-together-phrases?!) here on out. I’m all over the place with emotions right now, I can’t focus on a succinct open! I shocked the world by winning the reg. season of the Slim vs. JB RCL, got another playoff berth in the REL, UNCW (my alma mater) is playing in-state rival and a buncha-crooks Duke, just had my first epic fantasy baseball draft… There’s so much going on! And with March Madness obviously cutting into our basketball time, don’t sleep on your fantasy hoops postseason and start partyin’ it up like James Harden when your season is on the line. I don’t care about getting my 14 over 3 upset, I need to get to the semis! So stay locked and loaded, don’t let the NCAA Cinderellas these first 2 rounds distract you, and let’s go out and bring home the bacon. Here’s what went down over the weekend in fantasy hoops action, plus The 7 Ahead for Week 20 – the first week of the playoffs for standard H2H leagues:

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