Who doesn’t love drafting a rookie and watching him reach his rookie ceiling, a la Donovan Mitchell? While we’re waiting on more deadline deals to go through, and since we’ve got the all-star break coming up, I figured this was a good time to start looking more at the 2018 draft prospects in order to better our chances at landing the right rookies next season. We’re also getting close to conference tournaments and the NCAA tournament, and those are always more fun with some future NBA stars to scout. After so many point guards at the top of last summer’s board, it’s been fun to have some awe-inspiring big men to watch. I was blown away the first time I laid eyes on Ayton and Bamba.
For all the ongoing analysis you need on these guys, check out Razzball’s Craig Bozic’s Dynasty Deep Dive. I love thinking ahead for next year, even more so in dynasty leagues, and especially when you can trade future draft picks. I’ve read a lot of scouting reports and checked player comparisons, watched a few games. So, now I’m going to take a look at the stats of the top projected lottery picks in Craig’s most recent order.
Want the best tools and projections to help dominate your league? Check out the Stocktonator, the byproduct of Rudy and machine making love. Click HERE for a FREE 3-day trial.
Rudy has been hard at work in the lab. His latest creation? DAILY LINEUPS PAGE. So good. So smooth. So helpful. He decided to go with the Sonny Bono red tint, while I prefer the blue tint. What say you?
(basketball-reference.com – through 2/4)
| 2018 | MP | FG% | FT% | PTS | 3P | 3P% | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO |
| Luka Doncic | 24.8 | 47.1 | 82.6 | 15.9 | 1.6 | 32.8 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 2.1 |
| Trae Young | 34.8 | 44.5 | 83.6 | 29.8 | 4.2 | 39.3 | 4.1 | 9.7 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 5.3 |
| DeAndre Ayton | 32.2 | 62.8 | 73.4 | 19.7 | 0.4 | 34.6 | 10.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Michael Porter Jr. (H.S JR-Nike) | 26.7 | 59.7 | 84.4 | 24.8 | 1.3 | 36.1 | 11.1 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| Marvin Bagley Jr. | 32.5 | 59.9 | 62.1 | 21.4 | 0.7 | 35.4 | 11.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | 23.0 | 52.2 | 78.8 | 11.4 | 1.2 | 43.3 | 6.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| Collin Sexton | 29.5 | 43.6 | 77.9 | 18.7 | 1.4 | 36.8 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 2.6 |
| Mo Bamba | 30.5 | 55.4 | 67.8 | 13.0 | 0.5 | 28.2 | 10.8 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 |
| Miles Bridges | 31.0 | 47.9 | 90.1 | 17.4 | 2.1 | 36.8 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | 26.6 | 61.3 | 69.4 | 14.4 | 0.6 | 46.4 | 9.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Mikal Bridges | 31.8 | 49.8 | 82.3 | 16.9 | 2.4 | 42.3 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 31.4 | 47.5 | 82.6 | 12.7 | 0.5 | 38.7 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 2.7 |
What do these stats tell us? Maybe not much. Here’s what Jimmer did, after all:
| 2011 | FG% | FT% | PTS | 3PT | REB | AST | STL | BLK |
| Jimmer Fredette | 45.2 | 89.4 | 28.9 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.0 |
But, when scouts have pushed these guys to the top of the board already, I think we can have some confidence that the stat profile is reliably predictive. And with most of these guys being freshmen (and Doncic also 18), some of the stat lines are incredible. Of course, we know that the competition levels are different for the international and smaller school players. Also, many of these guys have other star prospects along side them and/or have to play limited roles, affecting their numbers. Anyway, I thought a good way to try to put the numbers into context would be to look at the same thing for the last two draft classes. Have fun with this and take from it what you will. Here are the 2017 and 2016 lottery picks.
| 2017 | MP | FG% | FT% | PTS | 3P | 3P% | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO |
| Markelle Fultz | 35.7 | 47.6 | 64.9 | 23.2 | 2.1 | 41.3 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 3.2 |
| Lonzo Ball | 35.1 | 55.1 | 67.3 | 14.6 | 2.2 | 41.2 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 2.5 |
| Jayson Tatum | 33.3 | 45.2 | 84.9 | 16.8 | 1.4 | 34.2 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 2.6 |
| Josh Jackson | 30.8 | 51.3 | 56.6 | 16.3 | 1.0 | 37.8 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 2.8 |
| De’Aaron Fox | 29.6 | 47.9 | 73.6 | 16.7 | 0.5 | 24.6 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 2.4 |
| Jonathan Isaac | 26.2 | 50.8 | 78.0 | 12.0 | 1.0 | 34.8 | 7.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Lauri Markkanen | 30.8 | 49.2 | 83.5 | 15.6 | 1.9 | 42.3 | 7.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| Frank Ntilikina | 18.3 | 48.5 | 62.1 | 5.2 | 0.7 | 43.1 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.9 |
| Dennis Smith Jr. | 34.8 | 45.5 | 71.5 | 18.1 | 1.7 | 35.9 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 3.4 |
| Zach Collins | 17.3 | 65.2 | 74.3 | 10.0 | 0.3 | 47.6 | 5.9 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Malik Monk | 32.1 | 45.0 | 82.2 | 19.8 | 2.7 | 39.7 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 2.0 |
| Luke Kennard | 35.5 | 48.9 | 85.6 | 19.5 | 2.4 | 43.8 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| Donovan Mitchell | 32.3 | 40.8 | 80.6 | 15.6 | 2.4 | 35.4 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 1.6 |
| Bam Adebayo | 30.1 | 59.9 | 65.3 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| 2016 | MP | FG% | FT% | PTS | 3P | 3P% | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO |
| Ben Simmons | 34.9 | 56.0 | 67.0 | 19.2 | 0.0 | 33.3 | 11.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 3.4 |
| Brandon Ingram | 34.6 | 44.2 | 68.2 | 17.3 | 2.2 | 41.0 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Jaylen Brown | 27.6 | 43.1 | 65.4 | 14.6 | 0.9 | 29.4 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 3.1 |
| Dragan Bender | 10.6 | 33.3 | 50.0 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 25.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Kris Dunn | 33.0 | 44.8 | 69.5 | 16.4 | 1.3 | 37.2 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 3.5 |
| Buddy Hield | 35.4 | 50.1 | 88.0 | 25.0 | 4.0 | 45.7 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 3.1 |
| Jamal Murray | 35.2 | 45.4 | 78.3 | 20.0 | 3.1 | 40.8 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 2.3 |
| Marquese Chriss | 24.9 | 53.0 | 68.2 | 13.7 | 0.6 | 35.0 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Jakob Poeltl | 30.4 | 64.6 | 68.9 | 17.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Thon Maker (H.S. Soph) | 21.3 | 13.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 4.2 | ||||||
| Domantas Sabonis | 31.9 | 61.1 | 76.9 | 17.6 | 0.1 | 35.7 | 11.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 2.6 |
| Taurean Prince | 30.6 | 43.2 | 77.4 | 15.9 | 1.6 | 36.1 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 2.7 |
| Georgios Papagiannis | 9.0 | 63.0 | 65.4 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Denzel Valentine | 33.0 | 46.2 | 85.3 | 19.2 | 3.4 | 44.4 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 2.7 |
This week’s classic fantasy line:
Make it two weeks in a row for Steph Curry. Since Trae Young gets the Steph comp a lot, here are Curry’s college stats at Davidson.
| FG% | FT% | PTS | 3PT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | |
| FRESHMAN | 46.3 | 85.5 | 21.5 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.2 |
| SOPHOMORE | 48.3 | 89.4 | 25.9 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| JUNIOR | 45.4 | 87.6 | 28.6 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.2 |
