Fantasy Basketball Advice

I added Robin Lopez in two of my leagues. I didn’t like doing it, but anytime a guy who was overhyped last year drops 21/7 in 27 reserve minutes, you kind of got to throw away your last pick and take a chance. I’m not alone, of course. I would have grabbed Fropez across all my leagues, but some dudes are just quicker than me. I’m old. My bones are weary. The thing is, I’m only hesitantly recommending a Lopez pickup. Well, I guess I am enthusiastically recommending a Lopez pickup, just not enthusiastically suggesting he maintains this type of production all year long. It’s very likely that Brook and Robin switched identities over the summer “Parent Trap-style” and while Brook is rocking in Arizona, Robin broke his foot and is lying on a couch playing Batman: Arkham City on PS3. C’mon, that’s SO Robin, you guys. If this Phoenix Lopez really is Robin, the back injury that Alvin Gentry said took 10 inches off Lopez’s vertical is apparently no longer a problem. We’ll see cautiously. What I’m saying is, grab Lopez, but don’t expect to never let him go. Anywho, here’s what else went down in day two of the season.

Markieff Morris – 7/9/2, with a three, two blocks and two steals. Wanna know a secret? Between Morris’ game and Lopez’s, this was the more impressive game. Waiver accordingly.

Marcin Gortat – Click this. What’s the fantasy implication here? Only that the Polish Hammer believes he’s pulling off that beard. If that’s not a fantasy, I don’t know what … Marcin Gortat is doing.

Ramon Sessions dropped 18 points and six assists on .500 shooting from the floor in 22 minutes off the bench. Had he shot .450 in 28 minutes, I’d be more inclined to view Sessions as a must-add (not to be confused with how Bostonians pronounce “mustard”). As it stands, Anthony Parker and Kyrie Irving combined for 14/5/7 on .333 shooting. That won’t happen every night (gulp). Neither will such a hot shooting night against a poor defensive team. Deep leagues might want to take a flier (or maybe just the little tab at the bottom of most fliers. No need to steal the whole damn flier), but I’m just not sold on, well, on anyone playing for Cleveland. (NOTE: I expect to type that last sentence no fewer than 65 more times this season.)

Kyrie Irving – Icy Irving gets the cold shoulder from me until he shoots better than 10 percent from the floor.

Leandro Barbosa – 14 points and 4 assists in 22 reserve minutes, made all the better by pronouncing his name as if it were a Harry Potter spell. (Lean-DRO Bar-bo-SAW!)

Jonas Jerebko – 17/5/1, with a steal and a block. Come sit next to me / Pour yourself some tea / Just like the Detroit P’s/ Not to rebound any. On another note (that doesn’t belong to Weezer), Jerebko is owned in fewer than 10 percent of  leagues and he seems to be starting over Austin Daye – at least, for now.

Greg Monroe – Picked up five fouls with 7:47 left in the third quarter, which seems like either an ineffective basketball strategy or a perfectly effective cheerleader-watching strategy.

Tyler Hansbrough – Double-doubled in less than 20 minutes/three quarters. I believe that’s the $200 answer to the “Effects of the Detroit Pistons’ terrible rebounding” Jeopardy category. It wasn’t a popular category.

Ryan Anderson – Look, I don’t want to own Ryan Anderson and you don’t want to own Ryan Anderson, but we have to come to grips with the fact that he’s starting, scoring (16.5 ppg/8 3ptm in two games) and he’s the tallest version of all this team’s perimeter scorers, which I think counts for something.

J.J. Redick – Dropped 20 points in 28 minutes. Couple things: He shot .600 from the floor, he won’t maintain that. Also, he offered up only 2 boards and 2 assists to go with those points. He’ll very much maintain that.

Kevin Martin – Shot 1-for-10 from the field to start the season. If you take away the six three-point attempts he bricked, his field-goal percentage rises from .100 to .250. /pauses … No. Nope. That’s still atrocious no matter how I phrase it. He passes from the hip, he shoots from the hip, I fully expect to hear about a hip injury sometime this morning to explain Game 1.

Chase Budinger – 3/3/2 in 20 minutes. Bud White just looked as out of synch as Martin. This would help explain why Terrence Williams (13/6/2) played 26 minutes and Courtney Lee (15/3/1) played 24. I’m not calling it quits on Budinger, but if you’re in a deep league with a spare roster spot, I’d grab Williams and Lee, in that order.

Mike Dunleavy – Starting in place of Carlos Delfino and ended with 13/3/3, with a trio of threes. This is about what Delfino would have contributed. So assuming your fantasy team was built around the production of Carlos Delfino, Dunleavy should be a sweet pickup until Delfino is fully healthy (in a game or two).

Stephen Jackson – Picked up five fouls in what felt like the first four possessions, which seems impossible until you remember that it’s Stephen Jackson. Three possessions later, dude fouled out. I would expect Stax to 1) remain in future games longer because 2) he won’t be frustrated EVERY night that his team is losing to the Bobcats.

Shaun Livingston -The best game of basketball Livingston has played since whenever the last game Livingston dropped 14/4/6 in 35 minutes from the bench. Remember: Jackson played 17 minutes and Livingston shot .600 from the floor. Who’s the suckaface interested in betting this happens on any regular basis?

Mehmet Okur – 0/5/2 in 21 reserve minutes. So that’s encouraging for the 100 percent of leagues that rushed to add this guy to their roster.

Ricky Rubio – 6/5/6, but those assists made it feel like he triple-doubled. If you don’t need assists and own Rubio, wait a few more games and see if you can’t get someone to overvalue him in a trade. Or keep him because he might be fun to own.

Tiago Splitter – Played nearly 36 minutes in this game. His (more talented) teammates were in foul trouble and he only produced a 5/8 line, with 2 stl and 2 blk, but still … you know? Still.

Spencer Hawes – 10/14/9, with two steals and a block in 39 minutes. How normal is this? Not only is this the first time Hawes has hit each of these marks in the same game, but in the last four seasons only 10 players have hit 10/14/9 in no fewer than 39 minutes. So … not normal at all really. Temper. Your. Expectations.

Metta World Peace – 19/4/4. MWP 4 MVP! The Artist Formerly Known As Artest only scored 19+ points twice last season and only had four assists and rebounds in addition to 19 points once. Still wouldn’t pick him up with your team, though.

I thought it might be fun to look at the best season-opening performances in recent NBA history. So far as I can tell, this list will no in any way help anyone win their 2011-2012 fantasy basketball league, but it’s a fun diversion while we wait for our teams to start their seasons.

I’ve poured through every team’s first game of every season going back to 1986-1987 to find these gems and ranked them from a fantasy perspective, meaning an extra block or steal is worth a lot more than an extra point. These are the stat-stuffin’est, category-fillin’est games out there, the games I’d have been happiest to have in my line-up at the dawn of a new fantasy season. Without further ado, here’s the list:

Finally we’ve found something Michael is good at.

Will anyone new join this list in 2011? I don’t know. The important thing is, after weeks and weeks of waiting, we’re about to find out!

Let’s take a momentary break from fake basketball to focus a bit on Razzball’s real basketball predictions for the 2011 season. I’m of two minds about making preseason predictions about the league on a grand scale. If I’m wrong, I’ve voluntarily published my wrongness for anyone to see. That’s not good for my self-esteem. Then again, if I’m way off, it means the season was full of surprises and it was well worth the time I spent invested in it. Here are our predictions for basketball’s post-season awards and who’s getting a new banner in their stadium. Adam’s picks in RED.  Jason’s picks in BLUE.

Eastern Conference Playoffs – 1. Miami, 2. Chicago, 3. New York, 4. Philadelphia, 5. Boston, 6. Indiana, 7. Orlando, 8. Atlanta – Same crew as last season, different order. What? You thought John Wall and his merry band of goofballs had a chance? Though I do think Milwaukee will be in a dog fight until the end.

Eastern Conference Playoffs – 1. Miami, 2. Chicago, 3. New York, 4. Boston, 5. Indiana, 6. Philadelphia, 7. Orlando, 8. Atlanta – I’ll be awfully surprised if the Miami and Chicago aren’t atop the conference; they seem noticeably better than anyone else. As has been pointed out all over the internet, this schedule doesn’t favor Boston, which ought to be enough for New York to slide by them for the division (though I’d pick the Celtics to beat them in a playoff series if the Heat and Bulls decide to skip the playoffs). Indiana proved in the first round last season that they’re a team on the rise, I like them in this shortened season. If Howard stays in Orlando all season, they’ll finish better than this, but I don’t think that will happen.

Western Conference Playoffs – 1. Oklahoma City, 2. L.A. Clippers, 3. Dallas, 4. L.A. Lakers, 5. San Antonio, 6. Denver, 7. Memphis, 8. Portland – Much like the Heat last year, ranking this Clippers team second could be way too high or way too low. Anyone that says they know how this team will gel and hold up is full of beans. I know this: Chris Paul has made a career of dragging overrated players and dead carcasses into the playoffs. Imagine what he can do with this roster. Still, the gelling and the youth favors the Thunder. They’re largely the same team they were last season, they’re gelled, their great and they’ll all be one season better, while the usual suspects are all one (big) year slower.

Western Conference Playoffs – 1. Oklahoma City, 2. L.A. Lakers, 3. San Antonio, 4. Denver, 5. Dallas, 6. L.A. Clippers, 7. Memphis, 8. Portland – After Oklahoma City, I expect most of these teams to finish very closely bunched together. The compact schedule ought to favor young, deep teams, but a lot of the top talent is on older teams. It’ll be interesting to see how that plays out. I believe the Lakers’ demise has been greatly exaggerated and expect their roster to improve by the middle of the season. I am not as sold on the Clippers as many seem to be. Perhaps I’ve just seen too much of Vinny Del Negro’s “coaching” to trust them. San Antonio is being overlooked because they got bumped early last year, but I believe they’re still a top team.

Eastern Conference Champion – Miami Heat – Haslem is healthy, Eddy Curry has taken some of the spotlight off the Big Three (by standing in front of the spotlight and blocking it with his mass), Bosh got ripped, Norris Cole and Dexter Pittman are developing and Shane Battier’s head wrinkles are the only significant changes the NBA Finalists have made to the roster. The team was strong last season, they’re stronger this season.

Eastern Conference Champion – Miami Heat – They were the best team in the conference last season and I don’t see Rip Hamilton changing that. Here’s to hoping that I’m wrong.

Western Conference Champion – Oklahoma City Thunder – The Lakers ripped away their bench, the Mavericks are either old or fat or both (Vince Carter), and the Clippers are coached by Vinny Del Negro (do not underestimate this. Coaches must either be the smartest men in the building or get out of the way. VDN isn’t and won’t).

Western Conference Champion – Oklahoma City Thunder – Unless the Lakers swindle their way into Dwight Howard without giving up Gasol, I think the Thunder have to be considered the favorites out west.

NBA Finals Champion – Miami Heat – I’m also predicting they win at home and a nearly ¾-filled stadium is there to see it!

NBA Finals Champion – Miami Heat – It’s boring to pick what is probably the consensus Finals’ match-up, but it would be very entertaining basketball, should it come to this. It’s a question of when, not if this Miami team will win a championship. I think the answer is June, 2012.

Most Valuable Player – Kevin Durant – No one will want to vote for LeBron James … ever again.

Most Valuable Player – Kevin Durant – Lebron is the best player on Earth, but Durant is awesome too, and his narrative will have more pull.

Rookie of the Year – Brandon Knight – The most obvious answer is Kyrie Irving. The most popular answer is Derrick Williams, but I’m going with Knight because: 1) Williams fell into a crowded situation on a mess of a franchise and I don’t think he’ll have enough opportunity to shine, 2) Irving is on an equally messy franchise and will be asked to carry a team – it’s no easy task and no guarantee, especially if the pieces don’t fit. 3) Knight on the other hand is on a less messy franchise with ample room to produce, but without the weight of having to be a team leader. He’ll play PG, but also run the two alongside Bynum or Stuckey.

Rookie of the Year – Kyrie Irving – ROY is largely about opportunity, and Irving will be given that in large doses.

Most Improved Player – Jrue Holiday – The award recipe goes like this: take one (1) third-year player, mix in marked improvement from the year before that went largely unnoticed, sprinkle in a dash of team winning percentage, whip until stiff peaks occur and voila, you’ve got yourself Danny Granger, Kevin Love and Jrue Holiday.

Most Improved Player – Evan Turner – I think he’ll step up his production, though he could just as easily sit in Collins’ doghouse all season. Doug is like that.

Defensive Player of the Year – Dwight Howard – To paraphrase “The Social Network,” ‘if anyone else were the year’s best defender, they’d have won Defensive Player of the Year.’ I will say that if I had to pick someone other than Dwight, I’d pick Joakim Noah.

Defensive Player of the Year – Tyson Chandler – Voters will have Dwight Howard fatigue and Chandler will benefit from the Knicks’ rise in the standings.

Go ahead and drop your predictions in the comments so that we don’t have to go down on record as being fools all by ourselves.

Ever wonder how many players have scored 50+ points in a game since Jordan entered the league? No? Really!?! What about the number of 50+ games over the last 27 years? No, again? NEVER? That’s weird. I wonder what you DO wonder about. Us, here at Razzball, we mostly wonder about that kind of stuff. We also wonder what others are wondering. This is how we get through the long winters.

Anyway, we mapped out every player with multiple 50-point games starting in 1984. We had two reasons for this. The first is because what better era to begin with than the Jordan Era, and 2) because compiling accurate game log stats pre-1984 is terribly taxing and I have a cat that needs affection. Priorities!

Couple notes:

I have no doubt that Olajuwon laced up his L.A. Gears every game with the intent to never ever let someone drop 50 on his team, so Houston never being on the fuzzy end of that stick doesn’t surprise me, but Seattle/OKC and Indiana being the only other two teams never having been embarrassed like that surprises me greatly.

As Jason pointed out when turning over his research, in the last 27 seasons, LeBron has had the fourth most 50-point games (9), but none of them occurred in front of a home crowd. Dominique Wilkins, on the other hand, ONLY scored in front of an Atlanta crowd. Bernard King also did his monster scoring at home. Frankly, without King, both D.C. and New York would have significantly poorer showings. So, you know … damn you, Bernard King.

The Washington Wizards/Bullets are the only franchise with more than two guys to score 50 points in a game in the last quarter century. Not the Lakers. Not the Celtics. D.C.

Larry Bird did drop 50 against the Hawks on November 10, 1989, but the game was actually played in New Orleans as a ploy to relieve the franchise of sagging hometown attendance. Luckily, such low attendance would only last another decade or five.

I was fortunate enough to be invited to Earth’s most classy and famous expert league – the FakeTeams Hoops Tournament.  The league has 14 teams consisting of three FakeTeamers (the hosts of this shindig), two guys from ESPN, one from Canada’s The Basketball Jones, one rep from Give Me the Rock, one from Fox Sports, one from Dime Magazine and fbasketballblog, RotoWorld, Damn Lies and Statistics, Life is Just a Fantasy … Basketball Blog and a partridge in a pear tree (I’m either the partridge or the tree, I’m not sure). You may recognize most of those stellar publications from their permanent presence on the right blogroll, or their ethereal presence everywhere else.

The format is a 14 team, 9 category, H2H, snake draft with the following roster format:  PG/SG/SF/PF/C/G/F/3 UTIL/3 BENCH

I happened to have scheduled another draft 30 minutes before this one, so at one point, I felt like a fancy Wall St. trader scanning from one monitor to another, only I was wearing frog pajamas, which I’m assuming most Wall Street traders don’t do.

Everyone’s strategy is to draft as good of a team as possible. Usually, that manifests in picking three players with similar skill sets in the first five rounds and deciding that THAT is their team’s identity. Me? I wanted a balanced team. From round to round, I wanted the players that filled the most stats cats that I had neglected the round or two before it.

Overall, I think ol’ Razzball has a shot at this thing.  I got one of the most well-rounded point guards in the game (Evans), the number one pick in the draft (Durant) added to a lock for FT% with Martin and the Bumpus Hounds (West and Hibbert) as my deadeye bigs. We also have a few exciting upside guys like Hickson, Hill, Anderson, Udoh and Shumpshump mixed in with glue guys like Odom and Jamison. Running the team’s rosters against my projections, no one’s catching this team in PTS and FT% and I finish top 3 in 3PT, AST (almost everyone on this team tosses out assists) and TOV.  This team might be in trouble with BLKs and FG% (which is lucky, because those two categories are often connected). The draft is the first step and I avoided tripping and cracking a tooth on the pavement, so that’s nice.

David Pincus over at FakeTeams, our league commissioner, did a nice write-up on the draft, which you can read here if you’re into it. He’s also compiling every owner’s thoughts on how they drafted. Check that out over the next week. I mostly babble about going completely neurotic alone in a room lit only with the twinkle of Christmas tree lights. Pulitzer, here I come!

Anyway, let me know what you think of the team …