2016-08-102426-860x510

Lady and Gents!  The time is here!  Time for me to expose myself to the ridicule of the internet by laying out my somewhat conservatively outrageous predictions for the 2016-2017 NBA season! All positive input would be greatly appreciated.  All disagreements will result in heated comment debates with no one actually being right, since the season hasn’t even started yet…

Last preseason, I had some solid predictions that were quite controversial!  Namely, that Isaiah Thomas would break out, and that Greg Monroe would be a complete bust.  Ironically, the uncontested predictions were the ones that didn’t fare so well… Primarily due to injury, but what can you do about that?  Clearly, nothing, if you’re the Pelicans medical staff that is.

A little note before hand, my bold predictions will be made relative to the fantasy pros consensus projections.

Lets get this party rockin!

Russell Westbrook – PG – Bust

Westbrook will finish outside of the top 3 in 9 cat leagues – See my Westbrook post for why.

James Harden – SG – Boom

Harden will finish as the best player in fantasy.  With D’Antoni’s system in place, and James functioning as the point guard, it will be very difficult for Harden not to finish first overall.  I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Harden push 10 assists in this fast paced system, with no Howard to steal touches as well.

Klay Thompson – SG/SF – Bust

With KD in town, the 3rd splash bro simply won’t get the touches he needs to maintain value.  Klay will not finish inside the top 50 unless there is an injury to one of the other 3 stars.  To change this, the Warriors could lobby the league to let them use a second basketball during the game – just a thought. #MakeBasketballFunAgain

Goran Dragic – PG – Boom

He’s the stud in Miami, and I don’t see how he won’t break into the top 40 if he stays healthy.  The Heat simply don’t have another playmaker.  I love Dion Waiters this year, but he isn’t exactly going to take touches away from Dragic.

Evan Fournier – SG/SF – Boom

Top 50 finish.  Outside of Vucevic, who is gonna score? Hmmmm?  I’m waiting….  With good percentages and a few assists thrown in, Fournier should have a solid floor this season.

Ben Simmons – PF – Bust

The kid cannot shoot.  He will turn the ball over a lot.  Did I mention he can’t shoot?  Simmons will not finish inside of the top 100.  On a side note, I actually went to a few of Simmons’ games while he was in high-school.  He has an incredible skill set, but until he is able to develop enough of a shot to spot up and shoot free throws, I don’t see much value there fantasy wise.

Jeremy Lin – PG – Boom

99 overall? Come on guys, he’s going to be the only show in town!  I’m not sure the average NBA fan can name a Nets player outside of Brook Lopez and Lin…

Top 75 finish if healthy.  Book it!

Matthew Dellavedova – PG – Boom

This is honestly a bit of a gut call, but with Middleton out, I think Delly will help fill some of the void.  He definitely should outproduce his 138 projection spot.

Buddy Hield – SG – Boom

If you saw my Buddy Hield post,  you’ll know the reasons behind this.  On top of the ones given in that post, he also should have the ball a lot more with Jrue out.  Volume will be the name of the game for Buddy.  I’m sure it will be a bit of a bumpy ride, but 148 is an absolute travesty.  I don’t see why he won’t finish top 75.   (Yes, that’s a step back from my overexcited number in the post – sue me.)

Cameron Payne – PG – Boom

219 is absurd.  He will have opportunity, and he will produce.  It would be no surprise to see him finish in the top 150-170 range.

 

Honorable Mentions:

Booms – Aaron Gordon, Elfrid Payton, Harrison Barnes, Jusuf Nurkic, Jerryd Bayless, Dion Waiters, Tyler Johnson and Garry Harris

Busts – Sixers Centers, Otto Porter, Scott Skiles, Greg Monroe, Javale McGee, Boozer’s painted head, and Lebron’s Hairline… (Yes, I’m aware that’s overplayed)

 

That’s it for today folks!  Let me know how you think I did, and feel free to let me know who I missed.

  1. Threekola says:
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    I have a question. Why does everyone hate Monroe so much? I mean, yeah, I don’t love him either, but…

    Basically 15/9/2/1/1 last year on good %s and 1.6 TO. In just 29 min.

    Those are good numbers and he played 79 games.

    I don’t understanddddd

    • Adam

      Adam says:
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      @Threekola: Well first of all, he was projected much higher last season, so that was an easy bust call. The problem is, the Bucks are better when he is not on the court. It’s that simple.

      His value was quite high at the beginning of last year, but proceeded to nosedive throughout until he was ranked 119 for the last month of the season according to basketball monster.

      https://basketballmonster.com/PlayerInfo.aspx?i=3107

      You can watch his value dive for yourself. This is why Monroe trade rumors are constant. Unfortunately, there isn’t really a place he can go where he’d be more valuable. He’s extremely hampered by his lack of ability to protect the rim.

  2. kb says:
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    cam payne just fractured his foot again

    • Adam

      Adam says:
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      @kb: I saw that right after this published… That sucks. Ronnie Price could hold some early season value in deep leagues until Payne gets back.

  3. Andrea Bargnani says:
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    I’m in one league this year that is a keeper league where you get to keep the player in the round you drafted them for the span of 3 years before you have to through them back into the pool. I agree with you that Ben Simmons doesn’t have much value this year but would you draft him as a keeper target expecting big things in his 2nd year?

    • Adam

      Adam says:
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      @Andrea Bargnani: I wouldn’t take him. I’d rather have Ingram, Hield, Bender or Murray before him and they’ll cost less. The TOs will always be there and his shot will not improve unless he switches hands, which I don’t see happening. Let someone else bite the bullet on this one.

  4. Scott says:
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    Stop the LINsanity! JK. I’m targeting Lin in my punt Assists teams. Do you think his low TO continues?

    • Adam

      Adam says:
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      @Scott: As the main ball handler on the Nets, I’m betting it goes up to around 3 TOs again, but the assists should be back at around 6 as well. He’s going to get a lot of usage and that comes with some TOs, but he’s always been fairly decent with ball safety. High usage means great stats as well.

      I’m expecting numbers similar to his knicks days. 14 points, 6 assists, 1.5 steals, 3 TOs and solid percentages. Nothing flashy, but that’s a solid second PG. I wouldn’t be surprised if he topped that a little as well, since he’s only averaged 30+ mins in one other season.

  5. Bryce Krispie Treats says:
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    These are some pretty decent takes.I hope you’re right on Hield. Im going to draft him only because I was a big fan of his college game and he’s fun to watch. Hope he cracks that top 100!

    Need your opinion…
    12 team, 7 cat, no percentages, (3 year keeper league)
    Pick one:

    Jimmy Butler for $12 in his last keeper year
    Myles Turner for $3 in his first keeper year

    Thanks!

    • Adam

      Adam says:
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      @Bryce Krispie Treats: I’m pretty comfortable betting on that with Jrue out. We’ll see though!

      Myles Turner no question! Even at the same price I’d keep turner over Butler, just for the amount of years ahead. Turner could easily be a top center in the league in a couple of years. Even if he isn’t, the blocks should be elite.

      Hard to know what Butler’s role will be as well. The usage rate clearly is going to be there.

  6. Clueless says:
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    I’m in 9-cat/H2H/Double Doubles/Dynasty/12tm lg

    Already have KAT & Porzingis now for this yr rookie draft got Poeltl & Zubac thinking of trading one who would you keep?

    • Adam

      Adam says:
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      @Clueless: Probably keep KAT, Goose and Zubac. Poeltl seems like more of a long term guy.

  7. Tiez says:
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    LOL @ Scott Skiles’ honorable mention 😀

    • Adam

      Adam says:
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      @Tiez: He will live in infamy!

  8. OldNavy says:
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    I am in a real tough hth 20 team league in yahoo. I like the same players that you do but the problem is whan I drafted the other players liked them. For example Myles Turner went at 47 my third pick was at 52. I thought I was going to get him easily.

    • Adam

      Adam says:
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      @OldNavy: In that case, other guys have to be dropping, and I’d be more than happy to take guys with the assured value. Drafting that high kills upside. Take what falls to ya!

      • OldNavy says:
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        @Adam: Of course

  9. A Hater says:
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    Not to be a hater, but I don’t really consider any of these, except maybe the Klay one, to be outrageous or even unlikely. In fact, every single one of these I would give a greater than 50% chance of happening, except for the Klay and Harden ones.

    I think there’s a 99% chance Westbrook finishes outside top 3. He finished 8th in per-game last year and has never finished higher than 7th. BBM projects him at 9th next year, which I think is about right. His FG% and TO mean he has a much lower ceiling than all of the other studs. I think Steph, AD, Harden, Durant, and CP3 are virtual locks to finish ahead of Westbrook, and I’d bet on Kawhi, Whiteside, and maybeee Towns, which would actually put him around BBM’s projections at 8-9th.

    • Adam

      Adam says:
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      @A Hater: Thus why they’re Kinda Somewhat Conservatively Outrageous! Haha, seriously though, they’re out there in terms of the current consensus rankings. Maybe they’re the outrageous ones though. If you want something a little edgier, then check out my Buddy Hield post… I got a lot of kickback on that one. I think I make some fair points.

      I don’t think I give 50%+ odds to anyone finishing first overall… Anthony Davis was consensus last year and look how that turned out.

      • A Hater says:
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        @Adam: Right, the Klay and Harden predictions are the ones I said were not >50%.

        I just read the Buddy one. I don’t think those projections are as outrageous as some people do. The problem is more that Redick put up something similar last year, but with only 1.0 TO, and he only landed 69th per-game, so I don’t think those Buddy numbers will get him to top-50.

        I’m not nitpicking everything you say, it’s just that there’s no need for me to say the points that I agree with haha

      • A Hater says:
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        @Adam: Oh, also, if you’re using consensus rankings, Westbrook is ranked #1 in ESPN because their standard settings are 8-cat

    • OldNavy says:
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      @A Hater: Cousins is a guy a try to stay away from. He misses games because of injury and to many technical fouls that during playoffs hurts.

      • Adam

        Adam says:
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        @OldNavy: Even with those issues, he still finished 20th overall last year. There’s no reason to think he’s not a second round guy. Probably mid teens, which isn’t far off consensus.

  10. Chad says:
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    Love the site…hoping for some advice on some basketball keepers.

    10 team, H2H, 9 Cats

    Gotta keep 6 players by 10/8 and I have four locked in: DeMarcus Cousins, Andrew Wiggins, C.J. McCollum, and Andre Drummond. I need to keep two more from this group: Marc Gasol, Bradley Beal, Tobias Harris, Nerlens Noel, Chandler Parsons, or Julius Randle. I also have the 2nd and 4th overall picks in our upcoming draft and expect to take Ingram at #2.

    Thanks a bunch.

    • Adam

      Adam says:
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      @Chad: Out of those, I’d probably go Parsons and Beal. Marc Gasol is right there, but I’ll take the youth, and you already have two centers.

      With the Simmons injury, I’m not sure Ingram will be there at #2 anymore., but best of luck!

      • Chad says:
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        Ha! Good point on Ingram.

        Thanks for the feedback. Really digging the site a lot. Great job all around.

  11. NYFantaC says:
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    Razzup..

    Thanks to you guys.. Because of your expert consulting, I have won the fantasy chip the last two years, and I’m now attempting a 3peat.

    With that in mind.. a small conundrum.
    14 Team League, H2H Most Cats, an absurd 11 cats that includes DD’s and Team Wins..

    Last year I finished with both Durant and Curry on my roster. Each year, we get to keep one player for the following season. I’ve kept Curry for the past two seasons. And have benefited greatly!

    This year, Im torn between Durant and Curry. Not sure if I should keep Curry and go for another star PG, or SF.. i know SF is slim picking.. So should I keep Durant and then pick up second tier PG w my second pick? And/Or in a league that counts DD’s, should i look for a high value center w second pick?

    Thanks for the insight..

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