web1_Buddy-Hield-Oklahoma-OU_0

As many of you probably know, I have a major thing for shooters; particularly guys that are great at the end of the game.  Ray Allen, Reggie Miller, Larry Bird, Kyle Korver, Klay Thompson, etc.  Buddy fits that mold to perfection.  In order to be a great shooter, one must have have tremendous focus, and a great work ethic.  Based on that description, these are the kind of high quality guys that you want on your team.

Everyone knows that Buddy can shoot.  Almost 10 attempts from deep per game during his senior year.  He drained over 45% of those.  I see no reason why he won’t average around 3 treys a game in the NBA.  The bigger question is: Is Hield Just a THRAGNOF?  I contend that he is not.

To support this point, let’s look at Buddy’s stat line from his senior year at Oklahoma:

  • 25 points
  • 5.7 rebounds
  • 2 assists
  • 1.1 steals
  • 3.1 turnovers
  • 50% fg
  • 46% 3pt
  • 88% ft – 5.4 attempts per game

Clearly, his rebounding ability is solid for a guard.  It won’t win you the category by any means, but he certainly isn’t a drain.  The 2 assists per game is a bit deceiving, since Hield set up his teammates a lot, but most of them simply couldn’t convert.  His playmaking ability looked to be fairly solid in summer league, so I’d pencil him in for 2-3 assists.  Buddy has an above average wingspan, but he is by no means a steals artist.  I could see him getting 1 a game, but odds are it’ll be just under that.  Turnovers shouldn’t be a massive issue, because he will not be the primary ball handler.  Hield’s TO total spiked during his senior year, because he literally ran around with the ball trying to find an open look.  The offense was pretty ugly from a team standpoint.  Under 2 TOs should not be a problem.  As for percentages, I see a minor hit, but 40% from deep should be attainable. The FT% is also a plus category for Buddy.  He shouldn’t have tremendous volume, but I wouldn’t doubt that it’s enough to make a difference.

Now, lets look at the situation.  The Pelicans are a high-pace team, and they love to get out in transition.  Both of these factors are extremely favorable to Buddy’s game.  Plus, the Pels have lacked a real scoring threat, so Hield should be the go-to guy within the first couple years, if not right away.

What to Expect from Buddy Buckets:

Now that we’ve covered the real life housekeeping, what can fantasy owners expect?

  • 17 points (I could see this number being higher or lower depending on usage, but I think this is a fair estimate.)
  • 4 rebounds
  • 2.5 assists
  • 0.8 steals
  • 2 TOs
  • 47% FG
  • 41% 3 pt
  • 85% ft (4+ attempts per game)

So where does he rank?

While I haven’t played around with any rankings yet, based on JB’s way too early ranks, I’d have him just inside the top 50.  While coming up with that stat line, I found an interesting comp.  Think somewhere along the lines of Gordon Hayward, with slightly worse assists, but more 3s.  I’d probably take him a touch higher than Gordon, but it’s all very close in that range.  Both players are decent ball handlers as well, so don’t sell Buddy short in that area.

 

That’s all for now ladies and gents!  Next article will probably be on Kris Dunn, but I have a lot of pet players from this draft, so no guarantees!  Let me know your thoughts in the comments below!  I’ll take suggestions for future player’s to analyze as well!

Have a great week and stay Razzy!

  1. DORIAN says:
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    Thanks for the write up! However, I think you may be insane.

    IF (big if) buddy manages to get his feet under him and get past the limitations that plagued players similar to him in the nba, I COULD possibly see him average 17ppg in the last month or two of the season. However, something around 12ppg is more realistic and (judging by what we saw in summer league) perhaps generous.

    • Philzilla says:
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      @DORIAN: Top 50 no way. Maybe in a season or two. Maybe.

      • Adam

        Adam says:
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        @Philzilla: I will apologize for being a tad over the top on Hield. I don’t think the projections are that insane, although you’re likely right about the last couple months of the season. I think the prediction may fit his sophomore year as opposed to his Rookie. On the other hand, he will get big minutes, the offense is extremely high paced, and the pelicans have no major scoring options outside of AD and Jrue. With an injury to either (likely) Hield will be forced to shoot a lot. Perhaps more of a JR Smith, but he was pretty damn good last year too.

  2. Nick says:
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    Won’t even be top 100. Think back to last year when you were more than high on Stanley Johnson cause he had a good summer league, I remember commenting on why I felt KCP would have a decent year and you said something along the lines of “I don’t have time to explain to you why Johnson will be better” well that didn’t really pan out…

    Hield will get his minutes but I cant see why he’d be getting decent production

    • Adam

      Adam says:
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      @Nick: I’m sorry if I blew you off last year. Stanley ended up not having much of a role and was roadblocked by a few less productive players as well. Minutes, Pace, and a lack of other scoring options play into Hield’s favor, but I admit that I did get a bit dramatic… Probably more of a JR Smith this year, but that’s not exactly bad. The kid can shoot the lights out though, so I wouldn’t put anything by him. The summer league showed that he is more of an all around player than expected, however, it also showed that he really needs to work on his defense…. Practically fell asleep a few times.

      • Nick says:
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        @Adam:
        All good! For the record I actually like Stanley, and it’s hard not to get hyped on rookies in the offseason. I agree with the JR comparison, not bad, makes for a late round roster spot or a guy that comes in and off the waiver wire throughout the season. Projections sound closer for his sophomore season, and though it’s early I would guess he’s in the 90-100 range next year. Though nobody really knows…aka kristaps!

        • Adam

          Adam says:
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          @Nick: I think Dunn could hit my projections next year, but if someone like Jrue or AD gets injured, I could see Hield put up a stretch of 20+ point games, just on usage rate. It’ll definitely be interesting to see. I don’t think he could’ve found a team with better opportunity right out of the gate though, and that’s partially why I’m so high on him. He’s also a senior, which typically leads to an easier transition, but that’s hard to say for sure.

  3. Drez1 says:
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    Who do you guys like with the 5th pick in a dynasty? I figure Simmons, Ingram, Dunn, and Hield will probably be off the board, so #5 is kind of a tough one. Looking for the highest upside regardless of immediate playing time. Thanks.

    • Adam

      Adam says:
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      @Drez1: I think Murray would be hard to pass up there… Depending on playing time, he’s probably my favorite rookie. Not quite sure how the minutes are going to pan out between Murray, Mudiay, Barton, and Harris, but the talent is definitely there. Bender could also be a solid choice. A bit of a poor mans Porzingis, with some upside there.

  4. Slim

    Slim says:
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    JB told me you had Buddy top 50 and I think he was a little taken back that I didn’t have much of an argument against it. But… if there’s one number I would bet against it’s the FG%. It’s so rare that a perimeter player comes into the league as a rookie, takes as many 3s as Buddy is going to take, and manages to do it at that high a percent. Summer league was a struggle for him, .327 FG% in 5 games, 9.6 3s per game in 32 min, and the shots are only going to be more contested. I think I’m going to project FG% in the 41-42% range, which is what he did as a junior. If he doesn’t get over 1.0 stl+blk then I don’t think he finishes top 100 even if the other numbers hold. His summer league has me a bit concerned about FT volume too, only 2.0 per game in 32 min is pretty low. But that’s about the extent of what I can even bring an argument against.

    • Adam

      Adam says:
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      @Slim: The FG% is probably a bit high, however, most perimeter players in college don’t take near as many 3s with near the degree of difficulty that buddy took. I wouldn’t be surprised if he got more wide open spot up looks, based on the fact that he pretty much didn’t get any in Oklahoma.

      I don’t particularly care about the FG% in summer league, since he consistently improved throughout. He had a couple duds at the beginning, so it’s pretty easy to throw out that sample size. I think the FT attempts will come up as he gets more comfortable, and they will primarily come in transition, and that’s a part of his game that excels.

      I’m not confident that he’ll hit my marks, but I don’t think the case is that weak either.

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