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It’s all starting to come together!

50-75 always feels like that nebulous range where we get out of the sure things and start veering into the mess that is the sleeper-range, but don’t want to go too nuts for your guys.  There’s just a little too much value on the table to reach for a potential superstar like Patrick Patterson!  Hah, I keed, but you know what I mean.

Hopefully you’ve checked out my Top-10, Top-25 and Top-50 as we start getting into the late-middle rounds.  Things are starting to get hairier in the comments too!  But give me all your thoughts and quibbles you have, because I’m just one idiot that gets to pose my thoughts to the smart collective.  Together as a think tank, Razzball Basketball is going to own the hoops-o-sphere!  Just need to pay more attention when we play stupid Chris Liss in the Yahoo F&F Final…  Ugh!  Here’s the Top 75 for the 2016-17 Fantasy Basketball Season:

(you can also put your quibbles with my ranks to the test in the 2016-17 Razzball Basketball RCL Leagues, now open and 100% free to join, start a league and sign up now!)

51. Goran Dragic, Miami Heat

I feel like overall we’ve seen some pretty rough sailing for the Dragon heading to Miami, but I think a lot of that was he has never been back to his 13-14 Suns level when he was a 28th overall player in per-game.  But his post-ASB numbers last year (17.3/4.6/6.7/) put up a good fight, despite the metrics not really liking his game due to lack of treys and steals (only 71st in per-game over that span).  But I love the sub-3.0 TO rate, nice FG% for a guard, and the upside for his added USG with Dwyane Wade outta town.  He separates himself a little bit from the PG run we’ll go on in about 5 picks, so I would even go within the top-50 if PG was a need in the 4th round.  (I wrote all this before seeing a lot of Dragic love the past few days, whewwwwie!  Might need to move him up a few spots…)

52. Nikola Vucevic, Orlando Magic

Ruh roh.  I stirred up the pot leaving him outside the top-50, that’s for sure!

Vucci Mane is still an incredible post and mid-range scorer, but this squeeze on his PT with Bismack Biyombo brought in is a little scary.  There has always been a knock on his game for being weak on D, and they told Biyombo he was starting.  I don’t see Serge Ibaka coming off the bench, so I could 100% see Vucevic playing a super-Kanter role from last year.  Maybe they do indeed bring Biyombo off the bench, but either way, Vuc had some pretty annoying downward trends.  Much lower RPG, FG% down, FT volume down, and while the D stats bareeeeely went up and got back to the 2013-14 1.9-combined level, whoopty doo!  They’re still below 2.  Plus all his whining to the front office has me thinking a trade is coming, and he’s on an EXTREMELY friendly contract given expanded caps and his quality of play.  A deadline deal almost certainly means he gets less rock on a contender.  Plus, let’s not forget his games played are only 57, 74, and 65 the past three seasons – not like he’s stallion of health out there.  Sounds like I will be by far the low man on Vuc.

53. Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia Sixers

Captain N…?  More like Captain Bench!  What a horribly run team…  Alas, for now it looks like a crowded front court in Philly, which hurts the upside.  But Bryan Tangelo Colangelo said he doesn’t intend to have all 3 bigs when the season starts, and Noel said he’s very open to being traded.  I’d be pretty open to get off the Sixers too!  Last year saw some decent improvements from Noel, mainly the FG% going from 46.2 to 52.1, but he didn’t fix his FT issues and remained in the red with more TO than AST.  The allure for 2 STL/2 BLK is still there, but there’s not enough to flank it to push him into my top-50.  A really interesting team-change is unlikely to change that either.

54. Tobias Harris, Detroit Pistons

Can’t quite make it into the top-50, that blowhard!  Even though nothing looks too sexy, he finished 58th in per-game last year, hampered by SKIIIIIIILES in some early-season run.  After getting traded to Motown, the numbers all boosted up – better FG%, 3+ PPG, more FT volume, more 3s, and a much better AST:TO that went from 2.0:1.6 in ORL to 2.6:1.1 in D-town.  I know I’ve used the crutch argument that a deadline deal usually hurts a guy, and I think that’s still typically the case, but Harris went against that trend.   In his 27 DET games, Harris jumped up to 44th in per-game and has a full offseason to gel with the team.  The upside isn’t necessarily huge, but he gives a great multi-cat line from the wing.

55. Mike Conley, Memphis Grizzlies

Here we go, on that epic PG run!  We got into some epic debates in the comments and on the Pod about my low rank of Conley last year outside the top-50, and whaddya know?!  56th in per-game last year.  And a big concern was the injuries, and he only played 56 games.  I think I deserve a few crown & cokes for that one!  But he got the big contract regardless, and what he continues to bring is a very unique AST boost with virtually no TO – 6.1:1.5 AST:TO last year.  That’s insane for a starting PG!  That KAT/Kemba/Aldridge/4th round/Conley build is getting more and more intriguing, with an unbelievable TO rate.  Sure, the games played for Conley are a risk, but with Marc Gasol likely to miss some games here and there, there’s a little upside for more scoring and diming.  Plus he finally has a good, wing running mate in Chandler Parsons next to him.

56. Reggie Jackson, Detroit Pistons

To say the metrics hate R-Jax would be putting it lightly.  The lack of rebounds, steals, and a bad FG% with only moderate treys really hurt his metrics-value.  But he’s still in the PG run because those 1 guards dry up oh so fast.  We were all hoping for much better than the 6.2 dimes we saw last year, and I think we get it in 16-17.  He played only 30:41 MPG due to some early games in StanVan’s doghouse, then had 37 dimes in 4 games in the CLE sweep.  I don’t like to weigh playoff stats a ton, but DET played CLE fairly close , and R-Jax had 9.2 dimes per when traded over in 14-15.  Not like anyone else is that big of a distributor on the DET starting 5.  The lack of steals will be annoying, but we saw good scoring and decent-enough FT volume outta him last year that I think he can take another step forward, especially if he gets to his rightful 33-34ish MPG.

57. Dennis Schroder, Atlanta Hawks

I need my German translator, commenter Paul!  Schrodes is going to be “sehr Guht!” as the starting PG!  He’s going to “auf wiedersehen” to opposing defenses!  Hey, I think I’m getting the hang of this!

With Teague dumped to Indy, Schrodes steps into the starting PG role we all knew he was destined for.  We saw him expand his range to make 1.0 treys last year off the bench, AST went up (TO did too, but ya know), and he got to 0.9 steals, already more than R-Jax!  The real risk is how out of control the FG% and TO get.  At 2.3 with the second unit in only 20:15 MPG last year, it could be an ugly 3.5-4.0, but I don’t think it gets Hardenish or anything.  He was playing with a pretty uncreative second unit there in Hotlanta, and was putting everything on display like a horny peacock to get this starting gig.  I think we could get a pretty special season for a first-time starter, albeit a little riskier than the PG I have ranked ahead, so I am slightly tempering expectations.

58. Jeff Teague, Indiana Pacers

Yeahhhh, having them back-to-back seems lazy.  Not my fault!  I had Teague a few lower, then just his inherent safeness had me move him up.

So, what’s the worst that could happen to Teague in a busy Pacers rotation?  I’m just having a tough time seeing him be worse than what he put up last year, which had him 74th in per-game.  And I expect the minutes to climb way up, and the turnovers to fall a little as well.  Just a nice level of safety that makes him George Hill, except with more upside and less Sisqo hair.

59. Elfird Payton, Orlando Magic

Skiles put the Elfrid on the Shelfird, that’s for sure!

Brutal season for the awesomely haired Elfrid, where the minutes went to sub-30 due to Skiles’ wankery (It recently came out Skiles didn’t think Elfrid was a PG of the future  – well ya know what?!  You weren’t the coach of the future.  BAM!).  Boards way down, steals way down, he can’t make treys or FT to save his life…  Pretty awful.  But in comes Vogel, new system, new uniforms, and a new lease on life.  I think he could be Rubio-esque with a little more upside for a breakout given his youth, age, and athleticism.  And hair.  Loving the haircuts lately!

60. DeMar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors

Why I didn’t like DeRozan last year – Pts went down, AST:TO took a huge step back, treys down, FG% down, and a bad groin injury was the main reason he missed 22 games.  Why I like DeRozan this year – Pts went back up (23.5 – career high), AST:TO took a huge step forward (4.0:2.2, ironically the exact same as in 13-14), treys up, FG% up, and he only missed 4 games.  Nice bounce back, double D!

61. Brandon Knight, Phoenix Suns

Cue up another awesome Suns guard who can’t stay healthy!  In his 52 games last season, Knight finished 73rd in per-game.  Big ups in Pts/treys, big down (as in, bad) in TO.  Also, despite making 2.3 treys a game, still only shot 34.2% out there.  Learn your range, B-Knight!  It’s still awesome that Phoenix plays the Batman sound byte when Knight scores though…  Luckily Knight didn’t have a season-ender like E Bled and was able to play down the stretch, and still looked pretty good in his final 10 games in March.  Knight evolves slightly out of the ThrAGNOF zone due to the dimes, but I’m not going too crazy for him.

62. D’Angelo Russell, Los Angeles Lakers

Aight, aight, aight, you guys got me to warm up to D Barksdale a little more.  Not leaving him on my Wire anymore!

It’s just so tough to figure out Russell’s spot with his ridiculous range of outcomes, but coming in fairly raw, 13.2/3.4/3.3/1.2/0.2 in 28:14 MPG last year with 1.6 treys is a really good foundation.  2.5 TO was too high, and that’s the big risk with Kobe Bryant’s USG out for grabs.  Upside is obviously huge for scoring, treys and dimes.  I just can’t go any higher because he seems like a total moron.  But hey, IQ isn’t a stat category, but it would be fun to have a punt-IQ team if it was!

63. Darren Collison, Sacramento Kings

One of my least favorite players now, after being charged with domestic violence.  Of course, no one is guilty without due process, and his court date is in early Septmeber.  I’m guessing he gets a few game suspension for the conduct policy, and as frustrating as it is in sports, then swept under the rug.

Alas, we’re not here for character ranks, we’re here for fantasy ranks, and back as the Kings starting PG, things should go pretty well.  He was particularly solid in the second half last year DESPITE Rondo playing his extremely inefficient game, with Colly going 15.1/2.5/5.0/1.2/0.1 on 50.3% shooting with only 1.8 TO.  In 14-15 when he was the starter, he was pretty similar to those numbers, with a slight boost everywhere.  I just worry about the off-the-court stuff turning into a 5+ game suspension, then the Kings being an absolute disaster yet again, and threaten early shutdowns.  It’s also worth noting Collison is on an EXTREMELY friendly deal on its last year, paying out only $5.2 mil before Colly is a UFA in 2017.  Kings could dump him.

64. Evan Fournier, Orlando Magic

Fournier year old

Any excuse to show that picture!

Fournier certainly lost a lot of his virginity last year!  Wait, that sentence makes no sense…  Taking on a bigger role for SKIIIIIIIIIILES!, Fournier posted a career year going 15.4/2.8/2.7/1.2/0.0 with 2 treys a game and only 1.7 TO.  It’s certainly metrics-whorish, especially confusing for a virgin, but masked in there were some stretches of really good dimes, including 3.7/per in April.  With no more Oladipo, there’s a real lack of playmaking on the Magic, and some immense upside for the Virgin to go nuts.  The more I’m looking at this team, the more I could see him get to 20 PPG.  I couldn’t quite get him ahead of the PG run there, or a similarly-statted DeRozan given he’s more of a set commodity, but he’s close.

65. Jonas Valanciunas, Toronto Raptors

The Luminescent Lithuanian is back to being luminescent!  Despite playing under 26 minutes per game last year, JV came out at 52nd overall in per-game stats. Lunacy!  Maybe it should be the Lunatic Lithuanian!  Well, the real lunatic is Dwane Casey, amiright Raps fans?!  Valanciunas’ seasonal numbers are so weird, he’s played fewer minutes the past three seasons, yet his scoring and blocks have gone up every year.  Cray!  Boards got to a career best 9.1 and we know he’s gonna have a great FG%.  With Biyombo gonzo, we might finally get the 30 MPG role we know he’s deserving of.  It remains to be seen if he can handle the rigors of that big a rotational jump, but we could see a big breakout.  I’m still hedging with a smidge of conservativeness, but I like him.

66. Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards

Well, John Wall is trying to fire him up, that’s for sure!  If only all of us could be All-Stars like Wall, smh…

Beal’s never been a guy I’ve liked too much in fantasy terms, and he’s got the lingering leg issues to be concerned about.  He scored a career-high in 15-16, but it tailed off after a nice start in part due to another injury layoff that likely lent itself to a subpar second half.  I want him to make more treys and get to the stripe more, and I can’t understand how such a good pure shooter has never shot 80%+ at the FT line…

67. Marcin Gortat, Washington Wizards

Everyone loves to hate on Gortat because he’s boring and old, just like Bruce Springsteen or some crap like that.  Hah, I probably pissed off some readers there, I just could never get into any sort of classic rock or anyone in that milieu…  Anywho, the Ten Foot Pole came out at an absurd 36 in per-game last year, aided by a metrics-friendly low-TO game.  He virtually replicated everything he did in 14-15, with the biggest outlier a 1.2 jump in REB.  Skeptics may point to the $64 million the Wiz just whizzed out on Ian Mahinmi, but the Wizards are extraordinarily light on bigs behind Gortat.  Pencil in the downward spiral that is Markieff Morris at PF, and they brought in Andrew Nicholson for stretch-4, but I could see Mahinmi and Gortat getting a little run together if they need some twin towers defense.  So I don’t see Mahinmi pushing Gortat any lower than say 28 MPG, and even so, he should still deliver at this rank, albeit in a very unflashy, steady route.

68. Jusuf Nurkic, Denver Nuggets

The Jamba Jus is back for more smoooooooothie big man play!  Speaking of smoothy, he dropped 35 pounds this offseason!  That’s like losing one Nate Robinson!  The hope is that it will help his durability, and he has all the tools to put together a monster season.  The obstacles?  Effin’ Manimal!  Stupid Nuggets can’t move him even though they hate him, and I don’t see any way Nikola Jokic isn’t going to get big run.  Now, Manimal might be playing in small spurts, so Nurk should out-minutes him anyway.

It’s easy to forget that Nurk was off a MAJOR knee surgery going into last year, then a lingering ankle issue also cut into his time, for only 547 minutes on the court.  But in 17 MPG he got to 1.4 BLK, 0.8 STL, and flashed great offense and the ability to pass.  I’m a little worried the defense stats might not extrapolate into the huge numbers they could in a per-minute adjustment ala Derrick Favors, but I have little doubt in the PTS/REB/AST surprising a lot of people.  The FT% given his sweet stroke is still a little annoyingly-low, and durability remains a question mark, but if the pieces come together, even at this spot it could be a home run pick.

69. Danilo Gallinari, Denver Nuggets

Speaking of durability issues with a Nugget, ughhhhh Gallo!  I bet a lot of people just dry heaved seeing him still in my top-75, and I get it…  Yet another injury derailed his season to only 53 games, this time due to a bad kankle.  But hey, at least it wasn’t his knees again!

Everyone is gagging at the risk, but I still think there’s a pretty massive reward here.  He finished at 45th in per-game last season, and offers a really unique line.  19.5/5.3/2.5/0.8/0.4 in 15-16 doesn’t jump off the page, but his ridiculous FT volume of 7.1-8.2 FT at 86.8% coupled with 1.6 treys and only 1.5 TO makes him an interesting 9-cat standout.  Now, with his minutes jumping over 10 more MPG than 14-15, I was mad to see LESS treys, but other than that, 15-16 was about what I expected.  He’s on the final year of his deal so a prime target to be traded, but if lord help me he stays healthy for 75+ games even if 1/3 are on a different team, he’ll easily deliver at this rank.

70. Trevor Ariza, Houston Rockets

The metrics always love him, the fantasy community always yawns.  Only the steals stick out in the 12.7/4.5/2.3/2.0/0.3 popcorn stat line, but he added 2.3 treys on only 1.4 TO.  The metrics gobble up the threes and low TO to the tune of a 38 per-game rank, but as everyone knows that’s owned Ariza the past few years, it can be so sporadic.  He started October and November shooting nearly 35% last year, and the ups and downs really can hurt a H2H team.  He’s better suited as a set-it-and-forget-it asset in Roto, plus he’s 31 and off a dreadful postseason.  On an extremely friendly deal, I don’t know if it would be a huge shock to see him moved and become a 6th man wing defender somewhere else.

71. Rajon Rondo, Chicago Bulls

Yeah, yeah, our Rondo hate will continue no matter what!  An absolutely revelatory, bounceback year for Rondo in SAC, with a 51st finish in per-game despite some terrible outlying numbers.  Including back-to-back delay of game calls, wtf are you doing?!  Yes, 11.7 led the league in dimes last year, and yes, he got 2.0 steals.  Awesomesauce!  But at 3.9 TO, I guess 0.9 treys is OK, and a horrible 58% FT clip, it came with it’s obvious warts.  If he was still on the Kings, I might be more inclined to have him in that PG-run, but SAC had a pretty inept offense and a horrific defense that led to additional O touches, and now Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler are going to demand wing USG.  I don’t think it will be quite as bad as what we saw in Dallas in 14-15 where he was an absolute leper, but I think it could be closer to those DAL numbers than the SAC stats.

72. Andrew Wiggins, Minnesota Timberwolves

Yuck.  One the biggest swing-and-misses I’ve had this side of MCW didn’t have the kind of ascension I thought he’d have in his sophomore year, but the metrics hate him a lot more than they should.  115 in per-game doesn’t make a ton of sense to me, but it’s likely due to high-volume FG and FT%s that are meh, and no treys.  Well, you can make up on treys via ThrAGNOF, and not like 20+ PPG scorers are waiting around much further in the player pool (much less, guys who are gonna play 82 games…).  And despite all his slamming – yes I’m to blame for a lot of that ranking him so high in 15-16 – Pts went up nearly 4.o a game, FG% went up, and the rest of the his numbers were about the same in one fewer MPG.  I’m not expecting the world here, but he could easily get to 1.0 treys, nab closer to 4.5 boards, and score a ton while giving you a little nudge in the D stats.

73. Myles Turner, Indiana Pacers

I’m just going crazy with the JB favorites now!

It’s tough to quantify what Turner did in 16-17 with a broken thumb and not getting pushed for a ton of minutes early on, but from game 41-82, i.e. the “legit” 2nd half of the season, Myles went 12.2/6.4/0.9/0.5/1.7 in 26.6 MPG, shooting 49.7% from the field, 73.9% from the stripe, and only committing 1.4 TO.  Dem some fightin’ numbers!  Then the icing on the cake was a huge playoff showing, including a league-best 3.3 blocks in the postseason.  I still worry if he’s going to play much more than 27-28 MPG (ugh, stupid Al Jefferson signing!), and I wish we saw the treys that he’s more than capable of, but there’s still some sexy upside here.

74. Dwyane Wade, Chicago Bulls

I don’t think we need too much written here.  He’s still got a great skill set for his age, has more in the tank, and when he’s out there, will be producing.  74 games last year was actually his high since 2010-11 though (6 years ago), and he never got to 70 in any of those other seasons.  Add into the mixer an elite wing in Jimmy Buckets and just a confusing ballhog in Rondo, and there’s a lot of question marks.  But for a guy who I think has a floor of 17 Pts and 4 dimes plus a great FT% and volume, I think there’s still enough there to rank him top-75.  And we’ve seen Rondo be a TO vortex and help clear TO off his teammates’ dockets, so maybe Wade sees the giveaways down too.

75. Zach Lavine, Minnesota Timberwolves

To our final mile marker at the 3/4 point, Lavine started a little slow off the bench, but really picked it up when assimilated into the starting Maroon 5 last year.  17.3/2.8/3.2/1.1/0.2 in 33 starts, including 2.4 treys at an absurd 47.4% clip from the field overall.  The 3s and FG% vault him into the sleeper zone, as D stats and dimes aren’t likely going to bring too much to the table.  But if he can come close to that line – and he should be given a big chance as those #s were in 34:19 MPG and Tibby Tibs might push him closer to 36 – then he could have a really metrics-friendly game if the FG% and treys stay high.

 

And there ya have it!  Look for 76-100 to be out in a few days, and until then, quibble away Razzball Nation!

 

  1. BopBop SimSim says:
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    i knew there would be a reward for a late night of work

    get to read these fresh rankings first!

    good work bro

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @BopBop SimSim: Haha yessir! Appreciate it!

  2. Dragos says:
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    Hello, JB ! Great work with the rankings, as usual, very tough to argue these pics ! (maybe Nurkic is a little high 🙂

    Can’t wait for my first draft, here are some potential picks for 12 teams roto 9 cat league ( worst case scenario: 12th pick, competitive league)
    1. Mlisap – PF
    2. Lowry – PG
    3. Favors – C
    4. Conelly – G
    5. D. Collison – UTIL
    6. Valanciunas – C
    7. R. Anderson – F
    8. T. Young – SF
    9. Bazemore – UTIL
    10.J.R. Smith – SG
    11. Bogut / Noah / Kanter / Mozgov
    12. D. Sabonis
    13. G. Vasquez / S. Rodriguez / DJ Augustine

    Any comments ? All the best Razzball Nation !

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Dragos: Hah yeah Nurk is def up there, blame Slim for that! He tried to make me have him 51 when he was out of my top 50! Haha.

      Lovvvvve Sapper in Roto. Bazemore is super underrated in roto as well, he’s gonna be right around 80 for me in h2h as well. Ryno is a good fit for this build too for roto and 3s. I’m kinda iffy on Thad, I think you have him in a good spot, but maybe you could go more upside there. Probably avoiding Noah due to %s and TO, love Kante though, might take Kanter 10th round. I dunno if Sabonis is draftable… But yeah otherwise looking like a good roadmap!

      • Dragos says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Thanks for the comments, JB !
        Totally agree, Kanter will not be available in the 11th round, my mistake! And i would take T Young in the 8th round, if he’s available, for the steals and fg%, which i think will not change this season, with the Pacers team (actually, FG% might go up, with all the playmaking around him).
        If i have the chance, i’m drafting at least one rookie with my 11-13 pic, not sure which rookie will be top 100 material this year, maybe Ingram only, i’ll steal some info from your final rankings 🙂 All the best!

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Dragos: Yeah, def can provide out of position steals. I worry he might try to shoot 3s again, in the fast paced offense. Just to throw a little cold water there 🙂

          Yeah it’s Simmons then a lot of blah. Hield maybe? I do really like Zubac as a flier, but I don’t think he’s draftable in 12ers yet

  3. Breezy says:
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    Interested by the Nurkic rank. Love the stls blks combo but dat Nuggs PF/C rotation is gonna be messy! Nurks %s are below average too. Why so bullish?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Breezy: Agree it’s messy! But I think they’ve even come out and said Faried’s max is gonna be like 20 MPG. So we have 96 PF/C mins

      Faried: 20
      D Arthur who was brought back: 20 max?!
      Jokic: 30
      Nurk: that right there leaves 26, and I don’t know if Arthur even plays that much.

      This is super loosey goosey, but that gives an extra 9 mins to what he did last year, given a lot off the bench, but if that happens even at a conservative 26 MPG:

      12/8/2/1/2 and I think the FG% is going to be muchhhhh better, more like 50%. FT is kinda an issue and he’ll prob get over 2 TO, but if he hits that slash line, I think he’ll hit our rank, and there’s upside for more Pts/Reb/Ast with a bigger role as I mention above.

      • Slim

        Slim says:
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        @JB Gilpin: My guess on denver min is Jokic 26. Faried 24. Nurkic 28. Arthur/Gallo the rest. I honestly dont know why people think Jokic can handle any more than that. He couldnt get close to that in the olympics vs mostly non NBA players. I dont think he can handle legit NBA centers which Nurkic showed he can in his rookie year. I remember that game vs Memphis when he kept blocking Gasol and Gasol got frustrated and tried to fight him. I’m perfectly fine being in the minority here but im drafting Nurkic ahead of Jokic.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Slim: Well, Batum didn’t play a ton of minutes, so that means he’s out of the Hornets lion’s share of run? Fournier didn’t make the French team, so he’s getting cut by the Magic? I don’t think Jokic’s minutes in the Olympics, regardless of how he looked in small samples, is a huge factor at play.

          Put Faried on the C! Hah I do remember that Nurk game. Ima try to find highlights

          • Slim

            Slim says:
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            @JB Gilpin: and LeBron didn’t want Zika so he can be cut. Its about being gasses and beat up. How many minutes a guy can handle is purely specultion. But my point remains, why do we think Jokic can play 30 a night when he never has? I do not. Especially since I consider him a liability on defense against legit centers which I do not believe is the case for Nurkic.

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
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              @Slim: Haha, well same for Nurk. Why can he handle 30 MPG over the season?

              • Dragos says:
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                @JB Gilpin: Nice debate, guys, i couldn’t resist not to comment on this (I’m European: Romanian)
                IMO:
                Jokic is better suited for the style of play of the Nuggets (fast pace offence), if he can stay out of foul trouble against tough centers, then he will play more minutes than Nurkic.
                Because he’s more physical, Nurkic is prone to foul trouble more than Jokic is and even if he gets better defensive stats than Jokic, the other stats my suffer because of those 5-8 less minutes of playing time (foul trouble disrupts the offensive flow of a player, also IMO AST/TO ratio will be in favor of Jokic).

                • Nick says:
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                  @Dragos:
                  Can you guys see into the future?!? Or did forgetting Laveurgne got minutes at PF last year just happen “naturally”. In any event that dude got traded today so some combination of those minutes predictions looks pretty good right now!

                  • Slim

                    Slim says:
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                    @Nick: I don’t think he’s all that good. Yeah he’s probably a worthy NBA rotational player but I’m not sure he would have gotten off the bench in Denver without an injury or trade.

                • Slim

                  Slim says:
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                  @Dragos: Yeah I could see Jokic eventually putting up Noah type lines sans the blocks.

                  • JB Gilpin

                    JB Gilpin says:
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                    @Dragos: @Nick: @Slim: Hah, why our comments are fun! The Nurk foul-trouble portion – totally forgot to labor on that a little bit! Definitely has been an issue.

                    Agree with Slim – with everyone healthy, King Joffrey was barely getting off the bench either. Oh, and yes we can see the future as well 🙂

                    Noah lines??? Way more scoring, FT%, 3s. Your comps are so weird for Joke, Slim!!!!!!!

                    • Slim

                      Slim says:
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                      @JB Gilpin: Yep. Cause when Jokic plays with Nurkic, Nurk takes all the USG (which doesn’t count assists). I know Nurk didn’t play much last year until April but once he did Jokic’s USG plummetted. In April, when Nurk played big minutes and was getting 30+ USG, Jokic was taking 7.8 shots per game in 30 min and putting up an absolutely anemic 13.5 USG. Now before you say “see Jokic can play 30 min” I want to make sure you notice that they lost 4/5 games (and they weren’t close) with the only win against the Spurs B-team. So my point remains that if Denver wants to win games Jokic will remain under 30 min, and when he plays next to Nurkic, Nurkic will be the one taking shots and will definitely be the PnR big.

                    • JB Gilpin

                      JB Gilpin says:
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                      Ummm, small sample alert? It was April, I don’t think that’s a harbringer of Joke having no usage. Nurk was fresh and needed the work rate! Might as well draw ish up for him in the meaningless finish

              • Slim

                Slim says:
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                @JB Gilpin: I don’t think he can. I put Nurk at sub-30 min. And we know Malone doesn’t like to play anyone (not named Gary) big minutes. I don’t think any Denver big man gets to 30 minutes per night. Why do I think Nurkic plays more minutes? Cause I believe he’s the only big man on the roster that truely protects the rim and if Denver wants to win games I believe they will need Nurk on the floor. But there is a caveat… and that is Jokic playing PF and Nurkic playing center. I think we can both agree that if Nurkic was healthy last year Jokic would never have seen the starting lineup.

                • JB Gilpin

                  JB Gilpin says:
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                  @Slim: that’s fine, but if all are playing under 30 that means Jokic should be right at the same minutes. I juts think Jokic fits next to whatever lineup he needs. Yes agree that Nurk healthy could’ve been special last year, and we might not have seen this look at Jokic. But we did, and he succeeded MIGHTILY.

                  • Breezy says:
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                    @JB Gilpin: love this debate guys. To me,
                    It just screams a situation where one gets in early foul trouble or Malone goes with the hot hand and the other rides the pine. Call me crazy but I’d rather Noah and his sure fire 30+mpg production (if healthy) over possible inconsistencies that Jokic and Nurkic will cause to each other. Nurks fg% worries me as well. What makes you think that climbs to 50%?

                    • Nick says:
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                      @Breezy: So I was looking up more Nurk stats last night and looked at his game logs. He eclipsed the 20 minute mark last year only 9 times. He put up monster numbers 8 of those 9 times and most of those minutes were between 24-26. You guys should check it out! Oh and he shot very well in those 20+ minutes except for that one dud game

                    • JB Gilpin

                      JB Gilpin says:
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                      Yeah as I said above to Slim, very small sample and off a very serious knee surgery. I don’t think 101-242 shots is nearly enough of a sample size, and he got better as the season went on, with more shots.

  4. Nate says:
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    adding to the Nurk hype.

    Here is his offseason game for Bosnia and Herzegovina playing against Vucevic 1 on 1 basically.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LwEQz2L8XEQ

    In the 3 games with his country he averaged 17 points, 6.6 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 2.0 blocks, and 1.3 steals per game in 25 mintues.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Nate: I’m with you! I think he’s a great natural boarder, will have chances to score more, and the AST underrated. Can’t wait to get him on some teams!

        • Nick says:
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          @JB Gilpin:

          He plays again tomorrow in a FIBA tourney against Russia. Here’s hoping he dominates Mozgov. I also heard, could be wrong, that Malone (or someone from the coaching staff) has been present to watch his games and support him or something to that effect. Anyways, if that’s true it means the nuggets staff believes in him and gives reason for us to as well

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
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            @Nick: Yeah, he better be beating up on Mozgov! I saw that too, that they’ve traveled to see him play. I’m buying into both the Euro guys, get Faried outta thurr!

  5. Ryan says:
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    No need to adjust your rankings just because a few of us are higher on some players than you are! It’s OK to keep Dipo,Dragic,Vuc where they are if you think they will produce less than others are projecting.

    You guys have been doing great on these ranks btw!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Ryan: I just wanted to point out I immensely value the feedback! I think I’m locked in on my Dipo and Vuc spots. Dragic I’m starting to warm up more on though 🙂

      Really appreciate it man!

  6. Nick says:
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    Hey guys, great job on the rankings! I look forward to your more than any other site. I’ve got some thoughts on some of the guys you’ve got in the 50-75 range and I’m curious as to why you think they’ll make a leap to that range. On the flipside of that I’m interested in seeing who else rounds out the top 100 and suspect that there might be some guys in there that are overlooked for the top 75.

    All that being said I know rankings can be very subjective, but for some of these guys history as examined by BBM is not on their side.

    Payton – The closest he came to your rank was post ASB 2 years ago when he was 77 in 9 Cat and 61 in 8 cat, and that was at 35 mpg. Why the love when all he really gets you is high assists and decent steals? Percentages are bad, rebounds are good, pts low, 3’s non existent. I’m just curious as to what jump you think he’s going to make and why.

    Collison – Don’t mind the ranking actually, BUT what do you think of the Lawson signing. At first glance it’s easy to dismiss it because Lawson was THAT bad last season. However, only 2 seasons ago he was putting up top 75 value, is only 28 and will be playing in possibly the best environment for him skill set, and minutes wise…and yes I realize calling Sacramento the “best environment” is quite laughable haha. I personally wouldn’t be surprised by a rondo-esque career revival for Lawson, if and when he’s given the starting role to start the season for what 5-10 games?

    Beal – Has yet to finish the year in the top 75 as indicated by BBM. Has also yet to play a full season, and when he is healthy and producing its still not in the top 75. Much like the Payton ranking why do you think he’s worth a look here? Personally I’d rather draft Gary Harris who is in the mold of Beal, and could very well end up being stats wise what people hoped for from Beal only you can get him a few rounds later and will give you better percentages and likely a injury free season.

    Nurkic – Now I own him in dynasty so full disclosure I really really want him to be as good as you think he’ll be. His per 36 is up there with the best in the league and I think he’s going to be really good. BUT he needs minutes. So many mouths to feed on that front court which means he really needs to separate himself from the pack early on and often for the coach to think he simply can’t take him off the floor. Are we expecting him to make that kind of impression this season? Is this rank with the hope and prayer that Faried is gone? Seems like it has to be because it’s hard to see where the minutes will come from.

    Anyways, I’m anxious to here your thoughts on those guys.

    Thanks!

    • Nick says:
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      @Nick:
      Didn’t see the previous Nurkic comments so I’m glad you guys cleared that up! I’d bet more on 22-24 to start the season, then as he proves himself he’ll climb to 26 then post ASB 28-29, hopefully!

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Nick: Thanks so much man, glad they’re up to snuff!

        Payton – Well, a few things at play. I know I waffle between citing BBM stats and not, but you’re drafting stats for your team, not the best 9-cat player every pick. Eflrid brings great AST and STL that are tough to find later. Second is a new regime, no more SKIIIIILES! messing with him, no more Oladipo.

        Colly – Mehhhh I dunno if Lawson could hold up to that many minutes like Rondo did. Colly on that cheap deal has me think they showcase him a ton and maybe they get lucky with a trade. I think when Colly is ready, he’s back to starting PG, with some combo sets with Lawson sporadically.

        Beal – Scores a ton, and gets assists. Tough to find at that range. Weird I like Beal more than someone, this is new territory! Haha.

        Nurk – Yup, Nuggets minutes could still work for Joke and Nurk to be effective in sub-30. I’m hoping for that Nurk jump too!

  7. Philzilla says:
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    Collison at 63? No sir. I’ll pass until at least several rounds after.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Philzilla: Hah, well you’re not getting Collison then! Hate him in real life due to off the court, but what’s wrong with the rank? He was solid last year even with fewer minutes and USG due to Rondo. Now starting PG again, and was at 46 per-game value pre-injury in 14-15. Why couldn’t he even get to top-50 again? My hesitation on that is suspension, and just the Kings sucking haha

      • Philzilla says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Why couldn’t he get to top 50 again? So many more factors saying he won’t than he will. A lot needs to go right, but this is the KANG’S we’re talking bout. Let’s start with the fact that Collison has only played 35 minutes per game ONE season for only 45 games where he was ranked top 50. He’s played 30 mpg twice, and the rest in the 20’s. He’s been passed over as a starting pg by multiple teams at this point in his career. Last year they brought in Rondo, this year they bring in Ty Lawson. Where there’s smoke there’s fire. This would all concern me even before the possible 20 game domestic violence suspension. Besides all that, his absolute statistical ceiling is top 50 with a meh-worthy 16-3-6 with a 3, a stl, and decent percentages. I would say his floor is much lower (outside top 100) considering the factors above. I would not be drafting before pick 75 this year.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Philzilla: Sure, but it was the Kings he had a top 50 finish with too! Not like they weren’t any more or less dysfunctional then haha. Well, we slam Rondo a ton, but Lawson is no Rondo. Kings needed SOMEONE, might as well take a flier on a vet. Plus they know they need to start someone during suspension. 20 games??!?! Where you see that? Although personally, I would root for something that harsh if not harsher, I just don’t think it’ll be that long. But all good, I commend you for passing him, especially given his character!

          • Philzilla says:
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            @JB Gilpin: If Jeff Taylor got 24 games for misdemeanor domestic violence assault in 2014, wouldn’t you make the argument that Collison would likely get at least that much for a domestic violence conviction? A conviction seems likely. It seems to me that the NBA is not going to be lenient in the times we are living in.

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
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              @Philzilla: Well, that’s kinda an issue with doing ranks before an uncertain possible suspension. If he gets suspended that long, OF COURSE he goes way down. But no way we can know this for a fact without the legal system even concluding yet.

              Taylor got 24 games, but had sat 11 already. So it was only 13 more, and 24 looks harsher with time served half of it. League office knew that too.

              Also – “The 24-game penalty for Taylor does not represent a new league standard for domestic violence cases, sources told Stein. The league plan going forward, sources said, is to deal with any such incidents on a case-by-case basis.”

              Let’s let the legal system convict Collison AND see what suspension he gets, before writing him off 20+. And like I’ve said multiple times, he should be suspended wayyyy longer. Whole season! But we gotta let the two systems of crime and punishment do their thing first.

  8. Paul says:
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    Schröder wird die gegnerische Verteidigung zerstören und ein starker Kandidat für den meistverbesserten Spieler sein!

    Schröder will destroy the opposing defense and will be a strong candidate for the most improved player!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Paul: Hahaha yesssss! I need you Paul! Yikes German is hard, I can’t believe I used to speak it a little growing up til age 5 or 6. Virtually forgot it all… Schroder ist ein MVP!

      • Paul says:
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        @JB Gilpin: yeah, German is a hard language to learn. Why you spoke german when you were young? Maybe Dennis will be an all star in 2-3 years.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Paul: Hah so I have some German heritage and my parents wanted me to be bi-lingual, so I had aupairs from Germany who would only talk to me in German. So I grew up speaking both, but by 1st grade I think I wasn’t embracing it as much – kinda had a falling out with the last one I had – and we stopped doing it. Let’s be bold, Schroder all star this year!

  9. G. says:
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    I love the “Nate” as a measurement unit btw! How many Nates players shed during the off season should definitely be a podcast topic. Be sure to use the metric system for it too; Nanonates, Milinates, Kilonates, Meganates (that’s a lot of Nates) and so on.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @G.: Hahaha, I know right?! Definitely going to us this, as weight loss is always a key theme in the offseason haha. “Jared Sullinger last year sucked in his stomach on Instagram just so it looked like he lost 10-15 Kilonates!”

  10. Fenris-77 says:
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    I think I’d probably rank Valnciunas ahead of the big PG tier. He has a much more favorable situation for minutes this year thanks to Biyombo leaving and finished the year on a strong run. Last year Biyombo was playing really well and Caset=y had to take Val off to get him on the court. That won’t be the case this year. I’m hoping for more like 33-34mpg and have him firmly inside my top 50.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Fenris-77: Yeah the more I was thinking on it, the higher he kept rising for me too. I had him 5 or 6 lower before writing them all up.

      I will say though, 33-34 would be a MASSIVE jump. I think there’s the risk, and if he can stay healthy, another black eye on his value. Those risks had me keep out of the run, but I like him a lot too.

    • Slim

      Slim says:
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      @Fenris-77: I’m not sure how many minutes to give JV in a projection. Definitely not 33-34. I’m stuck between 28-30. The 20 missed games are annoying and I’ll assume that won’t carry over although he had the ankle in the playoffs and didn’t do much of anything during the olympics. I think at this point he is what he is. He’s a metrics guy so the final “rank” should look solid but I’m not sure the counting stats will be there to truely justify a top 50 pick.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Fenris-77: @Slim: Yeah agree. 34 minutes would be HUGE and scary. Like if you got into a fight with JV… He’s huge and scary

  11. Lasandro says:
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    Love these, as always!

    I’m curious as to where you’ll have A Gordon. Vogel has already said that he intends on playing him the way he did PG in IND, and surely he’ll be back and forth between the 3 and 4 spots. As much as I like Myles, I feel as though Gordon has more of a direct path to very good all-round stats, no? He’s never going to be much of a scorer but surely some similar stats to Gorgui with less %s and more 3s is to be expected? Likely more blocks, playing alongside Serge. Food for thought. I LOVE Lavine but, dare I say, I may still draft Gordon ahead of him. At least one of the dunk gods ahs to be on my squad haha

    Guys like Lin and Wes interest me too… I could see Lin very much threatening the ranks of the guys ahead of him on your PG run, aside from Goran who, yes, seems to be quite underrated on your list.

    I agree with @Slim re: Jokic v Nurk. My main concern is who the bloody hell is gonna have the rock on that offense?? Mudiay, Gallo, Wilson, Jok all need the ball to produce. Then Barton and Nurk coming off the bench. How will this effect the underrated Gary harris, who put up a nice Avery Bradley-type line towards the end of last season. hell, what ABOUT Bradley? So many guards…

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Lasandro: So many questions can be answered now! http://basketball.razzball.com/rankings-confluencing-top-100-2016-17-fantasy-basketball

      Gordon is def close to Lavine! I think 3PT and just how those D-stats really come around are a question for Gordon, but upside is there.

      I like both Lin and Wes! Bradley I’m fine with, I bet his ADP is a little rich. Don’t have Harris ranked yet, it’s gonna be a while before I get to those Nugs wings. Too many of them!

    • Slim

      Slim says:
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      @Lasandro: Gary Harris is my boy! I went well out of my way to get him in REL last year when I had the chance. You can pencil in 30+ min. Malone absolutely loves the kid. Murray is a project and I’m not worried about him. Barton mostly plays the 3 and he’s really just bench energy. Wilson isn’t half the player Harris is. I’d put him pretty close to the Porter’s and Hood’s of the world, and at the ripe old age of 22 Harris is only getting better. He’s a guy who is going to be drafted after or around 100 but will absolutely finish inside that. Especially in a punt FT build since Gary is a high end FG% guy, sneaky 1.5 steals, 1.5 3s.

      I don’t think Jokic starting is written in stone either. ESPN depth chart lists Nurkic as the starter! I know that means absolutely nothing… and I’d prefer if Jokic starts, with Nurkic destroying 2nd unit guys offensively and finishing up the halves with his defensive pressense. And by that logic getting more minutes than Jokic. But I think we’ve already had this conversation.

      A few guys I have Harris ahead of – Hood, LaVine, Covington, Clarkson, Booker (just this year though), Reddick, even KCP since Gary is a help to FG% and I would argue KCP has even more competition with Stanley breathing down his neck. Bradley is tough since he’s also a good stl/3s guy with FG%. Ahead of Winslow for sure since his game isn’t all that fantasy friendly. I could probably come up with another half dozen guys that are being ranked higher than Gary that I would pass on to get Harris.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Lasandro: @Slim: I’m not worried about Murray either. Wilson is gonna play some though, somewhere. Covington?!?!?!? Covington’s numbers really surprised me. LaVine I think is selling him way short too. The others are fine, it’s about the same range.

        KCP has no worry with Stanley Johnson, get outta here. Stanley profiles more as a SF to me anyway. Your Gary Harris love is so strong it’s unrightfully lashing at others!

        • Slim

          Slim says:
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          @JB Gilpin: Hahaha. That was funny. True of course.

          Van Gundy is really talking up Stanley and he mentioned KCP and Morris by name are minutes to cut. A few less than last year has to be expected. Stanley profiles as a RB. He’s got some guard skills though. He isn’t pick and pop or 1 dribble pass.

          Covington is going to lose minutes. SF minutes are really in trouble with Saric and Simmons likely to get an opportunity. Turnovers are a major issue for him and he’s definitely a FG% drain. They benched him a few times last year and he only got 24 minutes per game off the bench. I feel like if he was going to be a part of their future they would have played him major minutes. It just worries me and the FG% and TOs don’t feel worth it.

          LaVine is close. I’m not so sure I believe LaVine is a 44% 3pt shooter like he was as a starter last year. That seems tough to repeat.

          I like the look of Gary Harris’ splits by month. You can easily see how much better he gets each month while the minutes stay the same. The best part is it all happens as the TOs go down.

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
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            @Slim: REL bias is REAL!

            Yeah I saw that on KCP, but I think there’s a difference in saying “we need to scale them back a tad” to “StanJo breathing down his neck”. Hahaha Stanley would indeed go for about $30 in REL football.

            Well he was hurt, I wonder if they thought he was grinding through from the onset. I still think both Simmons and Saric profile more as PF – yes I know they have way too many bigs. Covington can play some 2 as well…

            No debate here with Lavine’s %. But could score and chip in some AST.

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