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Ranks are hard!  I almost changed the title to “Way Too Much Of A Headache Ranks” since 2016-17 is gonna be ridiculous on draft day!  So many guys with upside, so many injury question marks, free agency is gonna explode, we still have rookies to mix in here…  And I don’t feel like I have as many “on a limb” calls as the past few seasons.  Everything seems to be nebulous, murky, jiggly-like-Raymond-Felton-running, “I guess this guy seems about right” kind of ranks filling out the top 50.  If anyone thinks they’re more excited than I am for free agency and the NBA Draft, they would be sorely mistaken!  I need some clarity out here, dammit!  Hopefully with some signings and scouting the rookies, I can find some more bold calls when we get to the “real” ranks in August.  Or maybe I’m gun shy after the Wiggins fiasco.  That will go down as one of the biggest international scandals in history…  Dammit, eh!  Here’s my Way Too Early Top 50 (1-10 can be read here, 11-25 here) for the 2016-17 Fantasy Basketball Season (with 1-50 in a complete list below):

26. Blake Griffin I can totally see the argument he should still be a top-25 guy, I hope you don’t start swingin’ at me!  Player risk doesn’t have to automatically equate to injury risk, if you know what I mean.  I just feel like there’s some “player” risk here.  I get he’s looking better in the playoffs and probably staying with the Clip, but meh, I wouldn’t be excited drafting him.

27. Eric Bledsoe Here’s your injury risk!  Injuries have been a question mark for mini-Bron, and last year was just a kick in the nards.  But he got the meniscus surgery that takes longer to heal while promoting a 100% healthy recovery, so there’s certainly a path to being a top-20 player.  Even if he looks unbelievable in the preseason, I doubt I would move him up at all due to the lingering question marks.

28. Brook Lopez Look, I get it.  He’s healthy now.  The clownfoot operation removed the clown from his foot.  A clownsectomy.  But it’s not like he was a top-10 guy this past year, he was 23rd in per-game stats per BBMonster in 73 games.  I mean, how can anyone be excited to draft someone off the Nets?!  The numbers all seem fine and repeatable, I just don’t see any way he dramatically improves.

29. Victor Oladipo True story, I just typoed his name as “Victory” when first typing out his name there.  Feels like some sort of divine, cosmic sign!  Luckily these are my way-too-early ranks, so I can afford to wait it out a few more months before putting his rank in stone.  I’m just beating around the bush here, I love his talent, hate the team.  You know where this is going!  You all do!  …wait for it…  WAIT for it…  ……WAIT FOR IT!!!….   SKIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIILES!

30. Kyrie Irving Kyrie vs. IT2/3…  One of the tougher toss-ups in my ranks.  Kyrie didn’t have a great year, came out to 56th in per-game, but I dunno I just feel like there’s still something there, even if he’s stuck in that big-3 system.  Plus we saw a very cautious amount of run, playing 31:27 a game off injuries, well under the 35ish he averaged the 3 years before.  The per-36s really don’t look that different.  With a healthy offseason, I narrowly leaned Kyrie over IT2/3, but I’m not spending a 2nd round pick on him.

31. Isaiah Thomas Because I’m tall and sometimes a douche, I have a saying I use a lot: “short people are hiding something”.  It’s true!  I mean, look at IT2/3!  He was hiding superstardom from us all!  It’s a conspiracy…  Even during this revelatory year, he came out to 36th in BBMonster and I dunno if the Celtics really offer him much more upside.  I think he’ll be solid again!  But that glimmer of upside from Kyrie was my determining factor between the two.

32. Gorgui Dieng Wooooo, let’s start getting the Dieng Train out of control!  Join me, Razzball Nation, let’s take this Dieng Train to the promised land!  And who better to take you to the promised land than Tom Thibodeau himself.  Gorgui might play 40 minutes a game!  Through the first 13 games last year, Gorgui averaged under 19 minutes a game and we all wanted to bitch slap Kevin Garnett.  I mean, he’s the master at the bitch slap!  Oh dear lord, I’m so mad I couldn’t find the video!  So in a game, KG got into some body checking with someone, then decided to start throwing up hands to slap but while retreating from who he was slapping at.  It was so pathetic!  If anyone can find it, I would love them forever, pleassssse someone find that for me.  Anyway, through games 14-82 (another subtle thing to love right there, played all 82) Gorgui played over 28-and-a-half minutes and averaged 10.8/7.5/2.0/1.1/1.2.  It doesn’t hop off the page, but how about with 53.9% from the field and 82.6 FT%!!!  And he STILL only started 39 of those 69 games.  During that span, Gorgui ranked out to 45th in per-game stats, but that includes some wonky 1-game played vets.  In total value, wait for this…  24th in overall value!  Choo Choo!  Here comes the Dieng Train!

33. Khris Middleton No one outside of the top-25 in these way-too-early ranks had more commenter discussion than The Duchess.  The fame is crazy for British Royalty!  According to BBM, he came out to 31st in per-game stats, and all per-game stats get a disclaimer since 1-game of friggin’ Dahntay Jones throws it all off (he came out to 25th…  Sleeper alert!).  Anyway, it was obviously a career-year, scored a ton, made a nice 3.5-3.9 FT at an incredible 88.8%, and nearly doubled his AST to 4.2 with only 2.3 TO.  My concern is what Slim and I said in the comments – how will his usage hold up if Giannis takes over this team?  I imagine not too much, it actually went up late in the season while Giannis was the “PG”, but there’s Jabari Parker as well and I just don’t think we see the same scoring or assists.  3s might go up!  And the steals should stay solid.  But I couldn’t see taking the Duchess any higher.

34. Rudy Gobert Monsiuer Elbow certainly stifled a lot of fantasy teams last year!  A big Razzball guy heading into the season, Gobert looked gassed from playing international Summer ball, then tore up his knee.  Luckily it wasn’t too bad, and he returned after a month off to look a smidge better, but not the freakish Oi Vey! we were hoping for.  Wow, actually that’s Yiddish not French, huh?  He wasn’t the… yeah I got nothing, I am Frenchless!  He’s still only 23 – will turn 24 before next year starts – and I still could see him pushing 2.5 BLK with a usable enough FT%.

35. Kevin Love I’ve been pretty anti-Love since he moved to the Cavs.  I guess that means I’ve been pro-hate!  Per-game, Love came out to 39th overall in 15-16, plus he played 77 games.  He’s still struggling in a few areas – mainly FG% and 3PT% – but it’s a boring slow-and-steady-wins-the-race pick if the Cavs keep that core together.

36. Nikola Vucevic There’s not many bigs in the NBA that are as consistently boring as Vuc.  All he does is consistently produce top-30 seasons, finishing 27th in per-game last year.  Unfortunately, all he does is miss some games every year too.  Plus, ya know, SKIIIIIIILES!  He’s as unsexy as it gets, but I think a solid pick here.

37. Carmelo Anthony Karl-ANTHONY Towns and ANTHONY Davis have both far surpassed the premiere Anthony in the game.  All we need now is Fab Melo to have a resurgence, so Carmelo wouldn’t even be the premiere “Melo” anymore!  I can’t imagine any team where Melo [not Fab] would have more optimistic upside than on the Knicks, and speculation from sources make it sound like he’s got one foot out the door.  And dem knees, doe!  Melo now starts a chain of injury-concern guys…

38. Jrue Holiday Despite every intention of the Pels medical staff to keep him OFF the court, Jrue made it through 65 games and fared decently enough with a 62nd rank in per-game valuation.  But a large chunk of that was in strict minutes-limit games early on and Jrue really thrived as the season progressed.  33:26 MPG in the second half, averaging 21.2/3.3/7.3/1.7/0.3 with 1.7 treys on 44% shooting.  Dem fightin’ numbers!  There’s certainly still risk in those legs, but his upside in a full season is worth a stopgap in-between the second and third tier PG.

39. Derrick Favors Baby got back.  And D-Fave got back…  Pretty worried about these back spasms, as they cropped up in 14-15 and took nearly a month last year.  Then he ended with a knee issue, and I’m not feeling perfectly sanguine that Favors isn’t breaking down a bit.  Sure his 29th per-game finish was mad favorable, but I wish he didn’t limp through the second half like that.

40. Pau Gasol Ugh, ranking in April is tough!  Last we heard, Gasol was shut down due to continued swelling in his knee, and we’re awaiting to hear MRI results.  So who really knows if he needs surgery…  Obviously a big knock on a 35-year-old 7-foot vet.  Then there’s the question of where he will play, which will almost assuredly be a worse situation than with the Bulls lack of offensive ability in the frontcourt.  All that said, he still had a top-17 finish last year in per-game and we’ve been writing him off the past few years.  Still worthy of top-50 consideration at the very least.

41. Jae Crowder Finally, someone hopefully healthy!  Although this ankle thing reportedly limiting him through the playoffs thus far is annoying…  Anyway, Kawhi-lite finished 31 in per-game stats, thanks largely to being a metrics-whore.  Scores, gets treys, gets D stats, and doesn’t turn it over.  He’s a solid 4th rounder if you have a pretty balanced team through your first 3 picks.

42. C.J. McCollum See, we can forgive and forget, amiright?!  A popular sleeper across many outlets coming into 15-16, McCollum blew my expectations out of the water by obliterating his previous per-36 numbers shifting into a starting role.  I almost refuse to believe he shot 44.8% this past season.  The A:TO still wasn’t great and I wish we saw more than 1.2 STL, but even so, he’s pretty much DeRozan with 3s.  I’m a little worried about how the Blazers fill out their frontcourt in the offseason, but CJ should still get his.

43. Rudy Gay Business as usual, finishing 46 in per-game in another yawnstipating top-50 finish.  Get this guy on a contender!  He’s still signed through 2017-18, so unfortunately it looks like he’s stuck in Sac.

44. Gordon Hayward Man, I don’t really know what to do with Hayward this year…  On the one hand, he’s still the face of the Jazz, has multi-cat upside, and is just so dreamy to look at.  On the other hand, he flat out sucked in 15-16.  Well, maybe that’s harsh, but you have to be harsh with good lookers!  FG% went down, 3PT% down, AST down, D stats down, all in 1:30 more MPG too…  And this was supposed to be HIS year with no PG and little identity on offense besides D-Fave!  I wish we saw more assertiveness and a step forward, instead it looks like he is plateauing and was 54 in per-game this past season.  He could take another step forward, but I don’t see it being a leap.

45. Chandler Parsons Back to our injury-run, I could easily see how Parsons stands way out in the top-50.  With more issues with his knees that cost him the finish in 15-16, Parsons is a big red flag.  That said, he might be in a big red jersey and head back to Houston, where he obviously had a ton of success.  His per-game numbers aren’t good (80th), but he did vastly improve as the season wore on.  From Jan 20 to March 16 (last full game before re-injuring knee with a meniscus tear), 19.2/6.0/3.4/1.0/0.3 with 2.6 treys and only 1.8 TO.  During that 25 game stretch, Parsons came out to 22nd in all of basketball in both per-game and total stats.

46. Thaddeus Young A really nice surprise from Thad the Impaler.  Thad the Surpriser!  40th in per-game out of Thad, with a ton of signs this is what we can expect out of him in the near future.  I lovvvvvvvve that he stopped shooting treys, as it brought his FG% back over 50 (well over at that – 51.4%) for the first time in 4 years and destroyed his previous best in boards.  Playing next to clownfoot BroLo, you can do that!  D-stats stayed up, fairly low TO, this is another boring SF/PF in this stretch of ranks, but I’d be good with it.

47. Ricky Rubio ¡Ayyyyyyyyyyyyyyy, caramba!  Mi amor Ricky Rubio es en fuego!  Yes, I wrote ALL of that without using Google Translate, a-thankyouverymuch!  I couldn’t get more crap on my Rubio love last year, but lo and behold – top-50 finish baby!  76 games played baby!  What kankle…  baby?!  He is still an atrocious shooter, but marginally upped the treys to 0.8, dimes are still flowing with a lowered TO rate, and he brought the steals back over 2 per again.  And now with Thibodeau driving the boat, look out for those 36+ min lines from Rubio!

48. Nerlens Noel It wasn’t a dominant breakout by any means, but Captain N had a strong 15-16.  FG% took a huge leap forward (46.2% to 52.1%), and he scored a ton more points, putting up 1.2 more PPG in 1:30 less MPG.  Unfortunately the TO went way up and he lost a handful of swats.  I just really wish he was on a different team and not next to a stiff like Jahlil Okafor, but despite that, the multi-cat big man talent has him squeeze into my top-50.

49. Marc Gasol Despite a slow start from Marc and the Grizz (really should’ve been the band name instead of “New Kids on the Block”, how dumb), Gasol still finished at 41 in per-game numbers before Memphis got decimated by the Plague.  Gasol’s season ended early due to a broken foot, and apparently the bone that’s broken doesn’t get good blood flow and is troublesome for big men.  Yikes.  I almost didn’t even rank Marcy Marc, but if that foot stays healthy, he’ll no question be a top-50 finisher.  Risky Marcy.

50. Tobias Harris What a run from Tobias-Gobuyus-some-coffee in DET!  Improved FG%, 3PTM+3PT%, FT% by a mile, scoring, huge uptick in A:TO ratio…  We get it, he was pretty much better in every area comparing his 15-16 ORL numbers to his 27 games in DET.  And despite Skiles’ best efforts, in roughly the same MPG as well.  During his DET stretch, I was surprised he was only 44th in per-game, but looking closer it’s due to some pretty low D-stats (0.7 STL 0.4 BLK). Mr. Funke doesn’t teem with overwhelming upside, but does fit a nice niche of stat booster with low TO.

Razzball Basketball Way Too Early Razzball Top 50

1. Stephen Curry

2. Kevin Durant

3. James Harden

4. Russell Westbrook

5. Karl-Anthony Towns

6. Anthony Davis

7. Chris Paul

8. Hassan Whiteside

9. Kawhi Leonard

10. Draymond Green

11. Paul Millsap

12. Giannis Antetokounmpo

13. LeBron James

14. Kyle Lowry

15. John Wall

16. Al Horford

17. DeMarcus Cousins

18. Damian Lillard

19. Paul George

20. Kemba Walker

21. Jimmy Butler

22. Kristaps Porzingis

23. Klay Thompson

24. LaMarcus Aldridge

25. Andre Drummond

26. Blake Griffin

27. Eric Bledsoe

28. Brook Lopez

29. Victor Oladipo

30. Kyrie Irving

31. Isaiah Thomas

32. Gorgui Dieng

33. Khris Middleton

34. Rudy Gobert

35. Kevin Love

36. Nikola Vucevic

37. Carmelo Anthony

38. Jrue Holiday

39. Derrick Favors

40. Pau Gasol

41. Jae Crowder

42. C.J. McCollum

43. Rudy Gay

44. Gordon Hayward

45. Chandler Parsons

46. Thaddeus Young

47. Ricky Rubio

48. Nerlens Noel

49. Marc Gasol

50. Tobias Harris

  1. OldNavy says:
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    I will not draft Drummond because of his free throws and Cousins because of missing time with injury and technical fouls. Whiteside and Towns are the two centers I will be looking to draft.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @OldNavy: I don’t blame ya, I don’t like to punt either, but he could fit builds around that rank. Agree on Cousins too, I’ll have him a few below ADP at that rank for sure. Good luck getting Towns, looks like he’s for sure gonna be ranked 5ish everywhere!

  2. Jim says:
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    Where would Deandre rank? And what if they change the intentional foul rules?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Jim: Probably in the 50s-60s, boards went down, didn’t like the steals down, and yes you can make the argument FT punting should make him higher, but I won’t be drafting him. If they change the rules, maybe he bumps up a few, but I also didn’t like he got some DNPs late this year, breaking his 3-straight 82 game seasons.

      • MAC says:
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        @JB Gilpin: thats too low. deandre is a 3rd rounder for xur. ranking drummond at 25 then DJ in the 50s doesnt makes sense. i know ur not a fan of punting jb, but these 2 go hand in hand. if ur gonna rank drumm at 25, it makes sense DJ would not be far behind. rule change or not, FT is still a punt. i guess it will just make the probability of winning FT cat a smidge higher. hehe. im not worried bout the DNPs, DJ is durable as they come for a big.

        drumm definitely is above Deandre in the ranks coz of upside, but wouldnt be mad getting him as my 3rd pick. it just makes sense to pair curry and durant with this 2 bigs.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Jim: @MAC: Disagree, Drummond is soooo much younger and DeAndre looks like he’s on the decline. Age alone, plus results.

          Actually I would argue it doesn’t make any sense to pair curry and durant with those two, you go from elite FT to below-average. At best.

          • MAC says:
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            @JB Gilpin: disagree, deandre would just be 28 next season. and no sign of decline yet.

            its obvious ur gonna punt ft pairing them up, but FG will be insane to start with. u can actually take hits on FG with ur next picks, coz late or middle rounds its easy to take bigs with good-great FG but sucks at FT. and the fact that ur pairing currys weakest cat with a player that is dominating there. i know ur not big on punting, but its H2H. punting 1 cat to be dominant on several cats is the way to go.

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
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              @MAC: So you disagree that DJ is older than Drummond? And “no sign of decline”? His boards went down, and steals fell to under 1 for the first time since he’s been a 30+ MPG player. Also, throwing out “28” is really subjective, he’s played 592 games as a 7-footer. That’s a ton. Andre Drummond has played roughly half that at 304.

              I’m fine punting with Drummo hence his rank, but I’m not touching DJ, what if you punt and he declines a little more or is hurt? Also, I think you’re overrating DJ’s FG% boost compared to Drummo, 4.6-6.6 from the field isn’t nearly the help of 6.8-13.1, volume wise

              • MAC says:
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                @JB Gilpin: no, no no man. im definitely taking drumm over deandre next season for the upside. i mean, drumm gonna be 23 next season. and seems like hes been in the league more than 5 yrs. what im saying say is, DJ is not a bad alternative if u cant get drumm. he would be in his peak the next couple years. and an under rated part of both players fantasy game is games played. obviuosly, u have to have specific build/game plan when targeting the 2. i am disagreeing bout DJ in decline. reb stl went down a tad, fg and TO remained the same, pts and ast were a career year for him.

                u could just say that on every player “if” they get hurt. its actually the other way around, DJ has played every game the past 4 seasons before this, and missed 5 dis season because of an illness and rest. the player that i would definitely avoid is parsons, especially top 50, with his injury history. i was one of those who were skeptical bout DJ FG% effect since he just shoot 6.5 tyms a game, but basketball monster has him num 1 in FG%V with whiteside, dwight, towns and gortat rounding out the top 5. also whats amazing is curry is at 12 in fg%V, with the amount of shots he takes, let alone the 3s he takes is unbelievable. he and lebron are the only ones who cracked top 12 that are not bigmen. drumm is at 14 in fg%V. it just makes sense to pair curry and lebron with drumm or deandre with that FG% boost.

                • JB Gilpin

                  JB Gilpin says:
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                  @MAC: Ok cool, and yes if you’re going in punting no question, I could see DeAndre being that backup plan.

                  Well, he only dunks and doesn’t dribble! there’d be no reason for his FG% or TO to go down. AST at 1.2… Meh my signs of decline are steals and FTA going down, and 3PTA going up. He doesn’t shoot 3s and his FT went up due to hack a Shaq. So in my little metric, all I got are the STL haha.

                  Sure, I’m not saying I think he gets hurt, but since he got DNPs and has played so friggin much, it’s not crazy to think the mins might go down a little bit and all the tread on his tires could wear on him a tad.

                  BBM metrics, I don’t think they weigh volume perfectly, but that goes over my head maths wise haha. Also Curry that high seems to be pulling in how well they shoot 3s I guess, I dunno, seems like an odd algorithm…

                  LeBron yes – and go full punt, but I hate negating great Ft% early with a punt the next pick

                  • MAC says:
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                    @JB Gilpin: haha! the drop in still is just a tad. blks actually went up a smidge for DJ. and yes, all he does is dunks, which in itself is a good sign of not declining. hehe.

                    DNP has got to do more with clippers playoff seed locked already. i think they rested their starters 2-3 games in the last week of the season. anyways, if declining and tire treads is a concern, there are several 1st rounders out there. cp, lebron and sap. they will be 31, 32, 31 respectively. as well as other vets on the same age like aldridge and marc gasol. specifically big spain, coming off a major injury at that age.

                    dont kow how BBM computes FG%V and FT%V, but i think they are pretty reliable there. both CAT top and worst player in there ranks are pretty much what we expect off. FT%V has harden, durant, gallinari, lillard and curry as top 5. with drumm, jordan, dwight top 3 bottom.

                    agree, with lebron its a no brainer for years, basically the only way to maximize his value. as his FT% is his only weakness. yup, each to his own. i just like punting 1 cat in H2h to be dominant in several cats. and the most obvious and easy to punt is FT. having curry-drumm after 2 rounds, ull be dominant in pts, reb, stl, 3s, FG. with a nyc start in asst and blk, with TO below avg.

                    • JB Gilpin

                      JB Gilpin says:
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                      @MAC: True, yeah Gasol is risky, but his upside is so much better a complete game. Yes – hoops is a team sport and you don’t draft ALL well rounded guys, but I would still take him over DJ, but we’re talking like 2-3 spots, DJ is def 50-60.

                      Hah, well I’d argue TO is the most obvious to punt, as I like guys that see a lot of rock.

                      Really anyone paired with Curry is gonna be a nice start 🙂 Need to see him healthy though!

  3. Threekola says:
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    The big ones I notice you took out are Teague and Dragic, you think they could sneak in there? Teague picked it up late and I think he’ll do just fine next year, around 15-3-7 as usual.

    Bosh falling out is understandable…but if you take him out of the top 50 I’m assuming you believe he’ll miss many games. If he is as unhealthy as he is, shouldn’t Dragic sneak in there? I’d probably take him over Tobias or Parsons, maybe even Rubio. Goran showed us what he can do with either Bosh OR Wade out, and I think there will be more games where either one of them are out vs. them both playing. No?

    • MAC says:
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      @Threekola: yeah, especially if teagues minutes goes back up in the 30s. he just avg 28 this past season, and for xur hawks would deal 1 of their PG. in dragic case, he would definitely improve next season. with the heats success playing this faster pace, and playing small, theres a good chance theyll retain this style of play. especially with their younger guys (winslow, richardson) getting more minutes.

      definitely taking teague and dragic over harris, parsons and rubio. i dont see harris and parsons top 50 jb. with tobias lacking def stats, and parsons injury risk.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Threekola: @MAC: Meh, he was just such a headache and I don’t think it’s 100% clear what happens with Schroder developing, as MAC kinda hints at.

        Dragic was def on the cusp. I don’t know if I buy what he and Heat were saying about finally “gelling” after being traded, whole offseason, then bad start. I dunno, just very iffy on him top-50 wise.

        I think there’s a glut of third tier PG and I dunno if Teague/Dragic separate enough from that tier for me to not settle in 6th/7th rounds with like… Conley/Knight/Monta/RJax. A very bunchy group in there.

        • MAC says:
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          @JB Gilpin: 1 of them is definitely gonna get moved in the offseason. if its teague, then ranking depends on where he lands. but staying in atl, u can depend on that statline of 16-3-6 with a steal and 3 for teague.

          with dragic, he should imrove next season. spoelstra already staggering minutes of him and wade making xur 1 of them in the floor. on top of wade missing games.

          agree with those tier of PG, but for me, teague and dragic with rjax are clearly on top of the other 3. with conley and knight injury concerns. and ellis decline num with pacers.

          • Threekola says:
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            @JB Gilpin: @MAC:

            For me, they’re just a tad above all those other guys. They have virtually no injury risk unlike Conley and Knight. Monta’s fg% isn’t nice and he’s not the same as he was like Mac mentioned. And Rjax, I just don’t like at all. Low fg%, low threes although he improved, assists way lower than expected, low steals, high TO. Just bad.

            I agree with Mac expect I definitely do not think Rjax is as good as Teague/Dragic. My two give you good %s, Dragic’s insane fg% more than makes up for his low volume meh ft%. They both score around 15-20 a night and hit a three or two. They’ll get you the 2-4 boards, the 6-8 assists a night, will do the job in the steal category, all while keeping TO reasonably low. Those are mid-round PG stats, but with such a drop off from elite PG to the mid round guys nowadays, you gotta look at reliability. Dragic and Teague are still young and have been healthy. Dragic still has upside with Heat, and Teague will only get traded to a team that will actually use him at least as much as Atlanta did. If he stays and Schroder goes, even better. I’m definitely taking either one of those guys before Conley, Knight, Rjax, and as much as I love him…Monta. Although I think, for me, Monta might be better than the others in that list due to his D stats and my optimism that he gets around 16 points next year.

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
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              @MAC: @Threekola: Oh sure, I don’t disagree Teague and Dragic are better, and yeah prob Rjax over those I listed too, but is the difference 2 or 3 rounds? I dunno…

              Well Dragic has failings in FT%, FT volume, 3s, and STL. Over last three years, Dragic is barely over 1.0 3 and at 1.0 STL, I dunno if that’s a top-50 guy doing their job enough. Ah but you’re saying he’s better than like Knight, which I agree with, but I think all that deliberation we just had kinda convinces me keeping him out of top 50 is right 🙂

              • Threekola says:
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                @JB Gilpin:

                No fair XD lol

                Dragic was stuck in that point guard sandwhich last year, and this year he had a terrible start inexplicably, which I don’t think will happen again.

                Oh and I’m not saying Drago and Teague should be 25 ranks above them or anything. Just maybe like 10-15 max. Maybe not even that. I’d take either one over parsons or tobias.

                The thing that’s making me so persistent with this argument is the fact that they both closed out the year sooooooooo well.

                Teague Post ASB right around 17-3-7-1 on 45%, 81%, and 1.7 treys.

                Dragic Post ASB right around 17-5-7-1 on 48.5%, 77% and 1 trey.

                Do you at least have them in the top 60 for now?

                • MAC says:
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                  @Threekola: i can see all of them in the 50-70 range. if not as early as 40s. you can pretty much pick a CAT need among them as they are pretty close to each other. though, i might have conley and knight, last among the 6 coz both coming off injuries. teague with the balance on all cats, jackson has pts, 3s, ellis for stls, dragic for FG. dont mind landing 1 of them in the 5th round as my PG3. as i plan on picking 2 PG 2 BIGS in the first 4 rounds.

                  • JB Gilpin

                    JB Gilpin says:
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                    @Threekola: @MAC: Def agree Dragic and Teague are cream of the crop of this bunchy tier, def in 50-60 range. I get a little nervous with post-ASB sometimes – stupid Wiggins! Haha. Dragic with no Bosh around… etc…

                    • MAC says:
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                      @JB Gilpin: haha! post ASB numbers is definitely a nyc basis for a players performance next season. but it cant be the only one. its just that wiggins call of yours was too bold and risky. hehe. getting him in the 20s.

                    • Psykomerc says:
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                      @JB Gilpin:

                      My rule for drafting is usually don’t get ahead of yourself, and don’t get too “smart”. If you predict huge jumps in ranks for historically low ranking players ala wiggins or Jabari Parker, you are setting yourself up to get BURNED. Why jump them 100s of ranks, when you can STILL draft them 100s of ranks later, OR draft a safer guy at that high of a rank. Sure I understand swinging for the fences after picks 60-75, but I wouldn’t swing so hard for a wiggins in the top 20-50s range. You won’t kill yourself for a ballsy pick at picks 60-75+, but you can definitely ruin your season at the high pick range.

                    • JB Gilpin

                      JB Gilpin says:
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                      Hah, I see what you did there 🙂 I tend to like to go bold, but that was indeed overly aggressive. I will say I certainly didn’t jump him a 100 ranks, as many had Wiggins 40s-50s. I don’t think he “ruined my season” though. I think if you get aging vets picks 1-4, you can ruin your season that way, which many players (def not saying you, but just in general, ya know, the novice player) will do a lot of the time. I think my ranks this year are thus far a lot more level-headed.

                    • Psykomerc says:
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                      @JB Gilpin:

                      No def I agree you don’t want to aggressively reach for aging vets, they have their place. I just meant projecting Wiggins over 100 spots ahead of his previous rank not 100 ranks over other analyst projections. I guess that’s just me being conservative.

                    • JB Gilpin

                      JB Gilpin says:
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                      Oh I gotcha. Well, it is and it isn’t, in Wiggins case with such a big sample I think that’s a good call. This might not be the best example, but like Gallinari I ranked 30-40 spots over his stats last year since he came off the bench and was eased into minutes before flourishing late, and I ranked him aggressively. It mostly worked, until, ya know, he got hurt again at the end haha

                    • Psykomerc says:
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                      @JB Gilpin:

                      Fo sho, I don’t blame you for ranking Gallo high, I do too based on his stats, I just drop him down some for injury risk.

                    • JB Gilpin

                      JB Gilpin says:
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                      Oh definitely, not anywhere close to top 50 this time out, plus he’s a prime trade candidate on his final year on a rebuild Nugs squad

  4. Lasandro says:
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    Love that Tobias cracked your top 50 and love the Funke-nalysis. I’d happily kiss Harris between the cheeks.

    I disagree a little in that i think he does have upside on D. Very capable of flirting close to 1.0 in both D stats for the seasonm with all those mins and his ability to defend the wing and post position. I feel in love with the guy after the trade (even more so, as I loved him in ORL too).

    Understand the skepticism re: Oladipo being coached by Skiles, but dude got the heaviest run outta anyone on that team. I think that continues and he’ll likely contribute heavily as a scorer or a multi cat guy on any given night. I would love for most of their stuff to be run through him though, because then we’d be talking about some Westbrook-like lines, minus the high scoring.

    Haha I believe I was one of the biggest BLo advocates this last season, after drafting him back in September.I’m telling you man, there was ana article floating around talking about how the particular procedure he went through made it so that he had a 90% chance that his foot would not get re-injured. Look at Curry, for example. People labelled him injury prone (ruightfully so) for thsoe first few seasons. Now, barring this freak accident the other day, he’s a pillar of health. I see BLo putting up a very similar line to last year. Hell, could be even better with Jack returning and giving him some easy looks – they had some mad chemistry before WAAAAAHHH! went down.

    I’m never, NEVER, drafting Gobert again. Ever. Just not worth it. in fact, that Utah team is kinda gross for fantasy purposes, dont you think? On paper you’d think there’d be some crazy stats all over the joint, but it just doesnt translate. Not like another young squad like, say, the Bucks, or more so, the Magic. Outside of Hayward and Gobert for volume contribution in, like, TWO cats, there’s not much else. Burks and Hood are gonna write each other off.

    I love Holiday so much and he’ll be my main “injury risk” pick in the next draft, me thinks. Would much rather own him than a schlub like Teague, who just underwhelmed me all damn season. Jrue’s per min contributions are off the chart – only a handful of PGs who produce in so many areas on a near elite level. And that team is all about offense.

    I love shows like The Starters, Jalen & Jacoby and Inside the NBA but cant stand that anytime they talk about the Wolves, the ONLY guy they leave off is Gorgui. Like, every damn time. As if all teh analysts texted each other and agreed upon ignoring Senegalese-born players! Hell, I hear Shabazz and Bjelica’s names pop up before his. Points aren’t every, you turds! I texted my friends back in AUS that Gorgui is gonna have the biggest jump of all the players on that team. Thibbs LOVES hustle post guys, a la Noah and Taj, and this guy is young, hungry and defensive minded. There is no way he’s not gonna flirt with 35min+ per game and is damn near a lock to average a dub dub and some low-end assists too. I really see the two bigs working a lot like Noah and Pau, two seasons ago, dont you? Can’t quite tell who’s going to benefit the most between Lavine and Wiggs, but hopefully they’ll both be good plays in fantasy. Still think Lavine has the better ceiling based on his aggression and personality. Wiggs cruises a little too much for my liking, but Thibbs may see Butler-type potential in the kid. And Lavine is a little 2011 Rose-like… hell, did coach Thibs just inherit his Bulls team from a few years back with even more upside??? Damn.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Lasandro: I knew that ranking Tobias would be taking a chubby, but I’ll SUCK IT UP! Haha. Oh I don’t think the D stats will be that bad in 16-17 either, but I don’t think he gets to 2 Stl+Blk.

      I just HATE Scott Skiles. HATE! I’d just be nervous investing higher, but that could change.

      Hahaha “barring this freak accident”. Hell, what happens out there! But you’re right, we shoulda trusted Brolo a lil more. Poor WAHHHHHH! I dunno if he’ll be back, sadly…

      Yeah Jazz are slow pace, D first. But down there in mid-30s I think is worth the risk.

      Agree on Jrue, risk is worth it and he got through this past year pretty healthy. He def is better than that 50-70 range of iffy PG which I mention in an above comment.

      Oh, I know right?! He’s my #2 Wolf! And yeah, just such a good fir for Tibby Tibs. Oh yeah, for sure they can play like those two, but maybe even better! Since both have nice jumpers unlike Noah’s sidewinder haha. Hahaha yeah it is very Bulls-ian. Let’s just hope they stay healthy!

  5. Nick says:
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    I know it’s wayyyyy too early but where might you rank Simmons and Ingram?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Nick: Hah yeah I thought about putting Simmons in with an unknown team, but I just had to wait until the lottery. He’s gonna flirt with top 50. I dunno about Ingram, he seems a little raw still. Probably in the “must-draft” range if it looks like he’ll start out of the gate, but likely outside top-100. I don’t think he’s that great of a shooter, so no 3s will hurt his game.

      • Nick says:
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        @JB Gilpin:

        Sweet! I like hearing your take on it, I got the #1 pick in our rookie draft for dynasty and I’ve been salivating over getting Simmons since November so good to know this confirms my desire!

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Nick: Oh for sure! He’s easily the class of the draft for fantasy purposes. Excited to see where he goes!

          • Threekola says:
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            @Nick: @JB Gilpin:

            What about Buddy? If he gets over 30 minutes, I see him putting up Beal-like numbers. I wouldn’t be surprised if he averaged over 2 threes a game. Something like 17-3-3-1.5 on good %s.

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
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              @Threekola: Meh, I dunno about that kind of run or the steals. All depends on where he goes, he kinda scares me as a college scorer who might flame out, but I could change that tune if he goes to the right team

  6. Jensen says:
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    Slim is going to yell at you again all summer over this Favors ranking.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Jensen: Hah well I dunno, we both were pretty bummed with how long the back spasms lasted…

      • MAC says:
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        @JB Gilpin: as long as its not chronic, and the fact that hes just 25. still a lot of upside in there.

        its tough to rank all players, just like what JB does. kudos to you my man!!! its just hard to compare. i like ranking it by position. and for me, there is only 3 positions. PG-WING-BIG.

        looking at ur ranking, id still draft favors over dieng, gobert, love and vucevic if looking for a big in the 3rd round. obvously, if ur punting blk then love is the top pick of the 5 coz he suits that build more. for me right now, i have favors, gobert, dieng, vucevic and love in that order.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Jensen: @MAC: I’m no chiropractor (obviously haha), but I dunno if we’ll know or not if it’s a chronic thing. Part of the risk.

          Hah I try my best! Yeah when I get the “official” ranks going I’ll break them down in tiers so I’ll be doing that in a roundabout way.

          I just dunno if I wanna risk it with Favors, but agree that mix of guys are in the same range, and yeah if punting blocks and needing more scoring, Love would prob be the pick

          • MAC says:
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            @JB Gilpin: haha! yup, definitely something to monitor in the offseason.

  7. Threekola says:
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    JB, noticed two guys outside you top 50.

    1) Batum
    2) Ibaka

    I don’t blame you for Ibaka, but I thought it was still worth a mention. I think the potential for a bounce back can validate a top 50 pick, but I’m not drafting him top 50 lol. Sooo many useless lines he put up this year…

    Batum…15-6-6-1-0.6 with good threes. Those are early round numbers. Do his fg% and TO really push him out outside of the top 50? Behind Tobias?

    • MAC says:
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      @Threekola: picking him top 50 might be paying for his ceiling. theres no more upside in him, hell be 28 next season, though still in his prime. any sort of bounce back might be marginal. but still a solid pick in the early mid rounds. expect a line near 14-7-2blk with great percentage. a perfect target for punt FG build. i can see him in the 50- 70 range along with the likes of valanciunas and gortat. id have them jonas, ibaka, gortat in that order.

      id pick batum over tobias for the asst for xur. though, id rather pick one of the midtier PG where batum will be ranked. like ibaka, pretty much a boring but solid pick 50-70 range. assuming he stays with the hornets this offseason. ankles might be a concern though.

      • Threekola says:
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        @MAC:

        It’s not unlikely hi finishes below top 50, but we’ve seen his ceiling and it’s top 20 so I disagree there. Not that I’m betting on that happening, but there is nothing necessarily holding him back as far as age or health or role. Playing time is there and he’s still vital to the team’s success. You just can’t say his CEILING is top 50. If he has a good year, he’ll finish top 50 easily. It’s just the direction he’s headed suggests he finishes below that next year, but it’s a peculiar situation as he is just approaching his prime in age. I see it as more of a mental issue with him. It might be confidence related, but nothing that is limiting his potential. I think it’s still possible we see the Ibaka of old until I have good reason to think otherwise. Again, though, this was all because you said his ceiling might be top 50 and i disagree. I’m not gonna take a gamble on him…that’s for sure. Lol.

        For Batum, I’d take him over that cluster of annoying mid-late rounds PGs like conley and knight. Too much injury risk for those guys. I’m not worried about his ankle. Batum is only 27 and he said he is finally playing basketball in this league the way he wants to, and it shows. I except an improvement in efficiency next year which was his only problem. I think he’s still got some upside. I’m taking him over Tobias for sure. There might be a couple things to complain about Batum, but one of those things is never an empty stat line. As JB knows, I hate 0’s. Haha.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @MAC: @Threekola: Hah yup you answered Ibaka for me. Getting older, blocks declining, low boards… Meh.

          Batum’s lower leg injuries piling up really scares me. Foot, toe, ankle…

          I think it’s much more likely he finishes BELOW top 50. He was 55 in avg stats in Yahoo this year! 53 in total stats. And yeah I do think injury history and age are starting to creep in, he’s tall and been in the league a while, playing a lot of minutes.

          He was one of my names just out for sure, with those PG in the 50-60 range, so it’s not like he’s far off. Him vs. Tobias is a difference of only a few spots – if you’d tell me Batum is playing all 82 games, def would take him over Tobby

        • MAC says:
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          @Threekola: but that ceiling for ibaka was 2-3 seasons ago. his blks has regressed since 2012. pts and reb as well for 2 seasons. added 3s but at the expense of FG. even FT has gone back to mid 70s, which is his career norm making his 84% from last season a fluke. and definitely do not rely for asst and stls out of him. and the fact that hes better if both superstars in okc are healthy. also, with adams improving, along with kanter in there and if okc has any idea that kd at the 4 is not a bad lineup, then we can actually see reduced min for him. at this point, id rather pick jonas in that range if im looking for a big.

          yup, i can consider batum over conley and knight coz of injuries. though he has injury concerns as well. he just needs to stay with hornets, as changing team is too much of an unknown. definitely going batum over tobias, unless punting asst.

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
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            @MAC: Wow, Jonas over Ibaka huh? Actually, they’ll be close for me too haha. I’m all out on Iblocka. I-blocka-him-from-my-ranks!

            Yeah we’ll see where Batum ends up, and obviously team build by 4th/5th round could have me swinging to Batum too, will depend on the build and they’re only a few apart for me

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