Oh man, things are going to get saucy in the second round!  After Slim and I (and most of you commenters) seemed to more-or-less agree on most of my top-10, here’s where I gotta get my defending pants on.  They kinda look like waders, but they’re decked out in OKC branded colors and logos.  I call them my “Dion Waiters”!  BOOM!  Offseason jokes are in in-season form!

While we’re all watching StanVan complain about the LeBron calls and crossing our fingers Steph is healthy enough to come back for game 3, there’s no better time to dive into the deep end of hoops rankings a good 5 months too early.  Can I put Ben Simmons in the top-25 yet?!  Pssshhh, thing be gettin’ crazy outside the top 10, but not dat crazy!  Here’s my Way Too Early Top 25 for the 2016-17 Fantasy Basketball Season:

11. Paul Millsap The Trillsap is so Trill!  And let’s be real, I ranked him 11 on so I could change his name to Tri11sap!  The biggest disagreement through my top-10 seems to be Whiteside – and totally understandable, let’s see where he ends up – but other than that, my top 11 are as ironclad as I can remember heading into a new season.  Millsap… I mean Mi11sap… averaged a rainbow line the final month and a half and shows no signs of slowing down – might even be improving – as he enters his age 31 season.  Things might even get better if Horford walks, with some added freedom/usage for Millsap that would follow.  But for now, my multi-cat love for Millsap is cemented at #11.

12. Giannis Antetokounmpo This is where we get a little crazy!  A little Greeky in my Freaky.  While the Bucks were a dumpster fire cycling through awful PG (cough, MCW, cough), they finally tried out the Greek at PG (technically playing point-forward, but you get it) experiment with fabulous returns.  18.7/8.8/7.0/1.4/1.9 over the final 29 games, he played 80 games total, the FG% was over 50% and he knocked down some treys at the end – 10 3PTM in the final 6 games.  Plus when your biggest fantasy deficiency (3PTM) is what you say you’re gonna work on all off-season, it makes me warm-n-fuzzy on the inside.  Just needs to get a little more consistent at the FT line though!

13. LeBron James Aight, aight, bring the negative comments, Razzball Nation!  That’s right, I’m bouncing the King from the first round.  All-in-all, 2015-16 wasn’t a disaster or anything, but he didn’t play 36 minutes a game for the first time in his career, steals went to a career-low, FT% remains horrible given his pedigree, and the DNPs worry me something fierce.  It was nice to see the FG% go way back over 50%, but that was at the cost of a drop in treys.  While that’s welcome and all – I’d prefer the FG% too – I just don’t see enough here to spend a first round pick anymore.  Giannis is gonna do something similar with less scoring but a boatload of blocks.  Gimme da swats!

14. Kyle Lowry I dunno what Slim hates more.  Razors?  Shirts?  DNPs?!?!  But I don’t get the hatred on Lowry, as he got through 77 games and was 12th in per game stats according to BBMonster.  A few years ago I was way low on Lowry due to his injury issues, but it’s 3+ years of 70+ games now.  He just turned 30, so it’s not like he’s Pau Gasol out there either.  I love he had career-highs in 3s, FTA+FTM, and STL all in the same season.  More aggression, and somehow more treys to boot!  What is there to worry aboot?!

15. John Wall We’ve been yelled at in the past for having Wall as a first rounder, and it’s really only the metrics holding him down.  FG% dipped a tad but he hit 1.5 treys in a massive bounceback from the perimeter, averaged a dimebag per, and set a career mark in STL.  Unfortunately he tried to keep up with Harden in TO, giving away 4.1 a game   I think Bradley Beal staying or going is a double-edged sword – if Beal stays there still should be good spacing, if Beal leaves, Wall might try to do too much and average 4.5 TO and see the FG% drop even more.  I like Wall a lot, he makes a great TO punt anchor, but not quite a first rounder in my ranks anymore.

16. Al Horford Big Al just keeps chuggin’ along, finishing with another strong season.  Solid across the board, and added 1.1 3PTM to become a true multi-cat C.  The boards are a little low from a big this early, but those are so replaceable!  TO at 1.3 the past two seasons is a godsend as well.  We still don’t know where FA will take him, but I imagine he’ll command big money and he’s still only 29!  I definitely thought he had passed 30.

17. DeMarcus Cousins Probably going to get some flack for this one too!  While writing your negative comment saying Boogie should still be top-12, imagine me making complainy-whiny faces like Boogie does all game to the refs.  If you can’t stand DNPs, Cousins and his average of 17 games missed the past 3 years should have you staying far away.  The good – career-high scoring, added 1.1 3PTM a game after only 11 career 3PTM going into the year, George Karl got fired.  The bad – at 10.2 FTA a game 71.8% is soul-crushing, Rajon Rondo made Boogie’s assists regress, still awful TO, he’s likely staying on the Kings.  I left that final point as the kicker for dramatic effect.  Sorry, Sacramento readers!

18. Damian Lillard While it wasn’t the catastrophic failure of, let’s say Andrew Wiggins, he didn’t quite come through for my #7 ranked guy as I woulda hoped.  We all know his FG% would be a major risk (41.9% ended up being a career low), he’d make a boatload of treys (3.1, a career-high) and would score (25.1 Pts, career mark).  Unfortunately, the dimes barely went up to a ho-hum (for an elite PG) 6.8, TO went up to 3.2, and he regressed in steals to an unholy sub-1.0.  Yeah, Omen, that’s unholy!  Hopefully a little more talent comes to Portland and he can be a smidge more selective with his shots – and hopefully improve the A:TO ratio – but the steals really bog him down after improving through 14-15.  Still a solid mid-2nd pick.

19. Paul George Uh oh, the legions of PG13 fans will be all over us for this one!  Bringing back the Paul George elite debate!  We’re nothing if not skilled at dredging up the past!  George was awesome in a must-root-for kinda 15-16, playing 81 games, averaging a career-high in Pts, and didn’t lack aggression getting to the stripe at a career best rate.  But at 41.8% shooting and 3.3 TO to 4.1 AST, I’m a little iffy investing a top-15 pick.  I will say it was nice seeing the TO go down as the season wore on, but I feel better with the above options in the second round.

20. Kemba Walker An amazing breakout year from Kemba, with BB Monster having him at 18th in per-game numbers.  Really befitting from better wing play next to Batum and a lot less usage going to Big Al, Kemba managed the difficult feat of taking a career high in FG and 3PTA and having a career best FG% (42.7) while scoring 20.9 a game, besting his previous career mark by over 3.0 a game. And while some will knock his assists vs. this high rank, he also sits at 2.0 TO a game rather than 3+ like almost all the other G ranked earlier.

21. Jimmy Butler Buckets!  I want to love you soooo muchhhhhh, Buckets!  But your bucket is so leaky!  Another awesome finish in per-game stats (15th on BBMonster), yet 67 games played and now 67 and under for 3 straight seasons.  Ouch.  Literally and metaphorically.  I’m like Beyonce in my mansion, “I CAINT LIVE WITHOUT MY BUTLER!”  Same with my fantasy teams if I pick him higher…

22. Kristaps Porzingis Kristaps…  POISON GOOSE!  Kristaps…  POISON GOOSE!  What an unreal season from the rook, and I’m not embarrassed to straight plagiarize Rotoworld’s stat on him (or re-plagarize from wherever they got it, but you get the idea!): “Porzingis had a solid season with averages of 14.3 points, 7.3 boards, 1.3 assists, 1.9 blocks, 0.7 steals and 1.1 3-pointers, becoming the first rookie to ever score more than 1,000 points, grab 500-plus rebounds, make 75-plus 3-pointers and block more than a 100 shots.”  He’s pretty much the best we could’ve hoped for from Serge Ibaka last year!  Really the only knock against him is the FG%.  I could see durability being a question mark, but he sat late with a shoulder strain that I think was more out-of-the-playoffs-cautiousness than a concerning injury.  Plus with a high rank, it’ll make us keep playing the song on the Pod all offseason!

23. Klay Thompson Yawn.  I tried to come up with something interesting and I fell asleep while trying to pump up Splash Bro #2.  He’s boring, but the metrics will love him, he’ll make a ton of 3s for you, and score well without killing your FG% and without turning it over.  Along with Steph, managed to improve his FG% despite taking more shots and more 3s.  Most boring 2nd round pick in history. Woopity Woo!

24. LaMarcus Aldridge Slim hates old people.  Aldridge is only 30!  And while I ranked him low coming into 15-16, I think it ended up working out pretty well.  26th overall per-game finish last year, with a soul crushing bad start.  But dat second half doe!  From Jan 27 on he was 20.9/8.3/1.7/0.8/1.3 on 54.7% shooting from the field.  That’s some ridiculous volume on 20.9 Pts a game!  Really found his role on the Spurs, scrapped the 3s which is helping the %, and the D stats didn’t really fall off even though he played in fewer minutes.  Only 74 games though…  If he was doing this on a different team without the DNPs, he might be top-20 again for me.

25. Andre Drummond Rounding out my top-25 is ol’ shoulder hair himself!  We all know exactly what Drummo is at this point – punt the FT%, be a force in REB, and get 1-1.5 STL on top of 1.5ish blocks.  As a punt, he’ll fill in admirably, and despite looking like an aging hairy hobo, he is still only 22 so could have a little upside left in him.  I’m not a big punter with assets this early, but he’d be fine for me with the right builds at the 2/3 turn.

 

There’s your top-25!  I’m sure we’re gonna have debates on several of these guys, so shoot your comments below.  Happy offseason, Razzball Nation!

  1. Threekola says:
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    I made my top 25 list just last night so this timing was perfect. I kinda did it in a hurry as getting this spot on with yours would be impossible. I focused more on whether or not we had the same guys and didn’t care much about the order.

    Guys I didn’t have:

    Lamarcus Aldridge
    Andre Drummond
    Kristaps Porzingis
    Klay Thompson

    Guys I had:

    Victor Oladipo
    Blake Griffin
    Brook Lopez
    Khris Middleton

    For Blake and Brook, I’m just gonna give a not-so-strong argument for them by saying I don’t see myself not drafting either one if I had the 25th pick. I’d take em both before Aldridge and Kristaps. I think I’m closer to Slim’s slide when it comes to LaMarcus, although not that extreme. Blake’s quad has no risk of re-injury and I think he’s gonna put up some monster numbers next year, like he should have this year after that crazy playoff tear. The point is, I don’t trust Kristaps’ durability much or Pop coaching Aldridge next year as he’ll only be a year older. Lots of 25-28 min games to come probably. Brook had a great year too, amazing percentages with high volume scoring and emerging boards and blocks with decent steals and assists, all with low TO. He’s not old by any means, literally just turned 28, and has shown his foot is not a problem anymore. My friend who owned him this year did his research and found out that the surgery he had on it was an adjustment of the ball of his foot, and that procedure fixed his problem for good. He actually dealt with it his whole career, but he finally got it fixed. I thought I’d compare my 2 to those 2 cause they’re all bigs and it made sense. Did you consider these two guys when making the list?

    Okay, for Dipo and Middleton, I’m gonna argue by using your own list against you, and back it up with some stats. This will be fun, and probably more convincing.

    I see you have included Kemba Walker…and not my baby Victor Oladipo. My guess is you didn’t own dipo anywhere? Not that that’s the reason you didn’t include him, but that is what I’m guessing. He was a life changer.

    Post ASB(using his post ASB stats are much more relevant because that is when he got his starting job back, which should be the case next season): 1.4 threes, 19.4/5.1/4.2/2.2/1.1 and that includes a couple games of him really slowing down after the concussion. He was clearly out of it and they were playing for nothing so Skiles didn’t play him too much. He did all of that on 47% fg, 82% ft, while committing just 1.9 TO! Look at those defensive stats! Granted, some of this was without Elfrid, but he was a monster with Elfrid, too. He is clearly growing as a player, and learning how to score. His FT volume is getting up there too as he’s beginning to draw those sneaky veteran-like fouls. He has also become arguably the best shot-blocking guard in the league if you’re not counting Giannis as one. The guy just embarrases people with his transition defense.

    I know what you might say, SKILES! But Skiles has shown a huge increase in trust in Oladipo. He averaged 36.6 MPG in that span and there is no reason to think that would change. He’s young, and I still think he can grow as a scorer and playmaker. I bet his assists hit around 4.5-5 next year too. He completely destroyed Kemba Post ASB, and the only thing Kemba’s season stats have on Dipo’s post ASB run are some threes, assists, and very little scoring. Dipo is killing him in both FG& and D stats. You have Kemba at #20, which is around where I do, but I just see no reason to not have Dipo up there as well. I actually still don’t know who to rank higher. What do you think?

    I also see you have included Klay Thompson…JB…look at me with a straight face and tell me you would pick Klay over Khris. If you say you would, I don’t believe you. Klay saved my ass this year. Crazy run of scoring and threes to close out the season. I’m pretty sure I remember he had a month of averaging the same threes as Steph (0.1 less to be exact), and you can fact check me on that! Pretty sure my memory isn’t failing me.

    But, Khris Middleton just has him beat to me. Middleton Post ASB(roughly, the decimals are hurting my head) 19/4/4.5/2.4/0.4 on 47% and 92% but just 1.6 threes and a pretty high 2.7 TO. He just offers more upside across the board than Klay. Although Klay will still beat him in threes and TOs, I do think both his threes will go up and TOs will go down. This is because Giannis and his penetration will have the lane clogged 24/7, and you know who he’s gonna kick it out to. The TO should also drop at least a few decimal points down with Giannis taking the role of the playmaker. His assists might take a hit, but he’ll still beat Klay, that’s for sure. Other than threes and TO with a little bit of scoring, Khris beats Klay. He takes assists by a good margin and actually completely demolishes him in steals. Plus, those two categories are easily more valuable than some threes and scoring and TO. I think you gotta put him either right there with Klay or ahead of him.

    Okay so there’s my argument. Watcha got for me JB, don’t go easy!
    Haha.

    • Slim

      Slim says:
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      @Threekola: I love me some Oladipo but I can’t ignore the concussions being plural. Scares me quite a bit. Probably should be in the next 5 though.

      I guess we can trust BroLo now and you could make an argument for 2nd round. Vs Aldridge, yeah sure I’ll go Lopez.

      Yeah I’ll go with Blake over Aldridge. But I’ll take Goose over both. I think the minutes go up to about 32 per. FG% should definitely come up. He might get to 2 3s and 2 blocks next year. He played much more than I thought he’d be capable of this year. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if he finished next year as a top 10 fantasy guy. The others seem very unlikely to me.

      Middleton worries me the most at this point. I don’t know what they will do with Monroe and he takes a lot of shots. If Giannis takes another step forward there will be fewer assists. If they bring in a legit PG it could be a problem. If Jabari continues to progress it could also mean fewer stats for Khris. I could see Middleton being the 4th or even 5th option on offense. Too much risk there to invest a 2nd round pick.

      • Threekola says:
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        @Slim:

        Hey Slim! Thanks for commenting brotha. This’ll be fun.

        Okay…hmmm.

        For Dipo, I thought he only had one concussion? Even if it was more than one (which I don’t think it was), I really don’t think that factors into his draft day value. They are a reult of impact. If it happened more than once, he just got unlucky more than once. Isn’t that how it works? I really don’t think a concussion or two even should put an ounce of doubt in you after that INSANE tear he went on. It’s not like he tore a ligament or had a bad sprain. Again….36.6 MPG on average including the few games he barely played. He was yahoo’s #1 player for about a month’s span. How can you let that go past #25? There’s nooooo way.

        For Brolo, glad we agree.

        For Porzingis, I know you love him. But I reallllly don’t trust the guy. 7’2″ or something and skinny as my little sister. He had some nagging problems late in the season and I won’t be surprised if we see the same next season. I just feel like he is prone to injury, and that feeling is strong enough for me to pass up on him when I can go with a buy like Blake, as long as my first pick is solid with D-stats. Also, I can’t agree with your assumption that his FG% will rise. He showed absolutely no progression in shot selection this season and his Post-ASB fg% was actually 40.8%, compared to a season of 42.1%. It’s possible, but there’s no real premise to base that conclusion on. He’s a jump shooter and that’s not gonna change.

        Alright, I’ll give you this. He DID say he’d bulk up for next season. He’s making an effort to be durable and that strength COULD MAYBEEE translate to more boards and better positioning for his shots. If I KNEW he’d play 75-77 games, I would take him top 25. I’m just not confident he will. He played 72 games his rookie year and the problems started late, so the problems could start early next year. It’s just you know if oneeee little thing goes wrong, whether it be a tiny back sprain, mild ankle sprain, a bone bruise, or a shoulder/foot/knee problem again, and you know at least one or two of these things are gonna happen, they are gonna be SOOOOO careful. I just see headaches in the future. I get your love for him but I feel like you’re about 2 or 3 years early on him. I don’t think he beats last year’s 2 games. Top 10 next year? In the words of JB, “I’ll take the under.”

        Wuw-wuw-wuw, Middleton fourth or FIFTH option? No way, Slim. It’s Giannis and Khris, those are their guys. Khris recently signed a huge contract and they love him. And most of those beautiful (late second round worthy) post ASB stats WERE with both Giannis at PG and Jabari back. He was still scoring 19 and dishing out 4.5 assists. He even had a few games with more assists than Giannis. When Giannis doesn’t have it going on any given night, he’ll be the one making the plays. Jabari isn’t a playmaker. Usually if he scores, it’s cause Khris or Giannis set him up for a mid-range jumper.

        Monroe? Not worried at all. Again, this whole year was with Monroe and Khris was a monster. If anything, Monroe draws double teams which help too. He’s also a good passer out of doubles. I know they give it to Monroe a lot, but that’s just a part of the early offense to see how the defense reacts. If they need a shot to go down, they’re going to Giannis or Khris. Plus, if Monroe leaves, that’s another plus. I see no reason he won’t match his stats last year. He is just starting to learn how to realllly score and be a playmaker, the Bucks love him, and Giannis is gonna open up so many things for him. Although he may take a hit in assists, I still think he averages 4.0 or higher. He can even improve next year. When you factor all this in given his delicious %s, good scoring, decent rebouding, good assists, 0.4 blocks aren’t terrible, and the fact that he was #1 in steals Post ASB (assuming no one beat 2.4), and then his ability to stay healthy, I think he shapes up to be …barelllyyy….a top 25 player.

        Just to be clear, the main criticism I have in your argument is doubting his role on the offense. He will be the 1st or 2nd depending on the night. Yeah, there will be those rare nights where Monroe has 28 points or something and they’ll go to him, but ever team has a guy like that. It’s nothing to worry about. Now, for the whole top 25 thing, remember what my argument was. Not sure how you feel about Klay Thompson, but I think you consider him an expensive thragnof, right? Well, JB has him at #23. All I said is that Khris should either be right there with Klay or ahead of him. Klay isn’t even in my top 25. Khris is my #24 or #25, barellllyyyy making it. I’m not saying he’s a clear second rounder. But lateeeee in the 2nd for a 12-er, it’s not crazy to go with him, especially if you have Klay up there.

        Alright, Slim, you’re up.

        • Slim

          Slim says:
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          @Threekola: Yeah 2nd was against the Heat at the end of the year. I always thought you were more prone to having them after you’be had one. Obviously everyone is different but from what I can tell from the google machine there seems to be a consensus on that.

          If I completely take that out then sure I wouldn’t argue him at the 24ish mark especially since you don’t draft again till late 40s. You could make an argument for lots of guys there just on feeling and you wouldn’t be wrong. Heym, where’s Melo?!

          I doubt I take BroLo if it costs me that high of a pick. I’d rather gamble on upside than health. But yes the gamble isn’t ‘avoid at all costs’ like it used to be.

          Middleton, yeah if they sign a decent PG, which they need to do to win, and if Jabari progresses then I think Middleton would be the 5th option. Jabari isn’t in there for his defense and hes an aggressive scorer. I’d take the under on Middleton repeating his offensive stats. 3rd round… maybe. I’d have to have a big and a PG already.

          Klay is most certainly not in my top 25… he won’t be on my team.

          I’m not that concerned about Porzingis. His combo of stats is special and I still feel like I’m comparing his floor to Lopez or Aldridge established stat line at rank 24ish. If we were comparing Gooses ceiling this wouldn’t be close.

          • Threekola says:
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            @Slim:

            Alright, yeah, that’s where I’m at with Dipo too. If he has a healthy offseason I’m going after him.

            Haha, I thought about Melo too. He’s just that guy you know you should put in your list but he’s too boring compared to these younger guys so you don’t. He’ll probably end up going 25-30.

            When it comes to Middleton, we’re on opposite worlds. If they sign a PG, it would be a spot up shooter. Giannis is gonna be the primary ball handler and he is a way better playmaker than MCW or any other guard on that team ever was. Only one that compares is Middleton (for playmaking). Jabari is there to score, but he isn’t a go-to guy for them like Middleton is. Whatever, agree to disagree.

            For Porzy, I agree that his ceiling is as high as they get, but from the sound of it even you don’t really believe he’ll have a smooth season. I’m assuming this because you said you’re not “that” concerned about him. I think a part of you is just being slightly too optimistic due to your love for his uniqueness and potential. Put yourself is draft day position. You have the 22nd pick, you’re 100% without hesitation taking Porzy over Blake and Brolo, honestly?

            • Slim

              Slim says:
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              @Threekola: Yeah I’m not worried about Oladipo not getting hit in the head during the offseason. It’s during the season, and seemingly out of nowhere, that worries me. It won’t be enough to keep me from drafting him though, I would just need a bit of a discount to take him over someone similar. If the concussions continue it absolutely could be career threatening. From what I’ve read it seems the consensus believes you are 3 times more likely to get concussed if you had been before, and the effects are cumulative.

              Yeah Melo might creep into the top 25 by seasons start. This list is going to change quite a bit before anyone actually drafts too. All these comments absolutely play into me and JBs thought process moving forward so even if we disagree on something I’m sure I’ve been subconsciously effected even if I don’t want to be.

              It depends on who the PG is that goes to the Bucks. I wouldn’t be shocked to see them go after Rondo… Maybe Teague finally gets traded. I assume Conley resigns with Memphis but that’s no guarantee. Jennings or Lawson might get a shot to revive their careers. We shall see. An issue I keep coming back to in my head is that they need to make some changes if they want to win, I think we can definitely assume the status quo will not be repeated.

              Jabari’s USG climbed by 2.5-3% per month from January on, basically once he got minutes and felt comfortable on his leg. I think he leads the team in scoring next year.

              Yep Porzingis is no guarantee but the risk seems minimal. If I thought he’d play all 82 and get the minutes KAT gets then he’d probably be a boarderline 1st rounder. I don’t think Porzingis is any more at risk than Lopez and yeah I would take him over Brook 10 times out of 10. I’m trying to think of a pairing I wouldn’t… Basically does the FG% outweigh the 3s and blocks. I guess it’s important to note I’m not comparing these guys to Porzingis with 28 min. I’m closer to 32+ with improvement which would put every other cat as a push, maybe closer to 18 PPG than 20. And with that he would easily top Aldridge for me too.

          • MAC says:
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            @Slim: agree, klay wouldnt be in any of my team as well. hes basically an elite thragnof. i do prefer middleton over him, but not top 25 though. i like getting PG and BIGS early. especially point guards in the first 5rounds.

            • A Hill O' Beans says:
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              @Slim: @Threekola: @MAC: I doubt Middleton quite makes my top 25, probably right around 30, but wasn’t this “he’s gonna be the number 4 or 5 option” the exact same argument that was used against him after his first breakout season. I feel like it was the very same argument as prior to this season and how did that turn out? He went from 53rd to 28th.

              • JB Gilpin

                JB Gilpin says:
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                @Threekola: @Slim: @MAC: @A Hill O’ Beans: So much to catch up on, thanks so much for the discussion all!

                To original post, those 4 you had out for me were my 21-25, so that makes me feel good!

                Oladipo – yeah, Skiles man… Skiles… SKIIIIIILES! I just can’t invest a top-25 pick into a frustrating coach.

                Klay Thompson – Yup I def would over Middleton, I’m worried about the AST dropoff and Giannis becoming a usage whore. Metrics like Klay more, and while I don’t weigh them too heavy, as Slim said, a little worried about Middleton. Jabari scoring a lot too as he mentioned. There’s soemthing for healthy reliability that I think some commenters are overlooking, but maybe I need to readdress him before the real ranks.

                Middleton – I’m kinda in the middle, I don’t think 5th option, but def 2nd at best, moving to 3rd at times. Agree with Slim Jabari is an aggressive player, especially a full 2 yrs off the ACL and we saw improvements as season went on last yr. Mr Green – even after a phenomenal season, still only 28th, about where I have him ranked. I dunno if he can top last year with Giannis pretty much a superstar now.

                Porzingis – not like he’s a banger like Brow, he just shoots and then tries to snipe blocks. No way I have injury concerns.

  2. A Hill O' Beans says:
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    Who’s more valuable next year if these guys were given the same playing time? Which they should be if their coaches were smart.

    Per 36 from this season (both guys are the same age)

    Player A: .421 / .838 / 1.4 3ptm / 18.1 pts / 9.2 reb / 1.6 ast / 0.9 stl / 2.4 blk / 2.1 to
    Player B: .511 / .811 / 0.6 3ptm / 16.5 pts / 11.6 reb / 3.9 ast / 1.6 stl / 1.0 blk / 2.2 to

    • Slim

      Slim says:
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      @A Hill O’ Beans: Top one by alot. And if the FG% goes to 45, 46 then he’s a 1st rounder. 47, 48 and he’s better than KAT.

      2nd guy kinda reminds me of Kanter. It’ll be useful if he gets enough minutes. But I’m guessing he didn’t come close to 36 min per game.

      But obviously there’s alot more going on as far predicting next year.

      • A Hill O' Beans says:
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        @Slim: Thanks Slim. I had this great long well thought out reply with researched stats from last year and career comparisons and all sorts of great stuff. Then just as I was scrolling to the top of my comment to review it before submitting my browser refreshed the page and erased it all. [Deep breathes] So know I’m too disappointed to rewrite it at the moment, haha. So, I might reply again later…

        • Threekola says:
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          @Slim: @A Hill O’ Beans:

          Who are they? Guessing the first one is porzingis, but the second one can’t be Kat, he scores more than that.

          • MAC says:
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            @Threekola: yeah, my guess is porzingis is the first one as well. the second one, im guessing is jokic? hehe

      • A Hill O' Beans says:
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        @Slim: @Threekola: @MAC: Yeah Porzingis is obviously the first one and Jokic is the second one. Even with the 7 or so MPG difference this year Porzingis was only worth about $5 more according to Basketball Monster.

        I agree Porzingis is obviously going to be ranked higher, and rightfully so for probably better stats and a much more concrete role. But I think in the end it will again be a lot closer than their rankings / ADPs would lead one to believe. What do you think the difference in their Razzball ranks will be? Porzingis is 22, what will Jokic be?

        • Slim

          Slim says:
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          @A Hill O’ Beans: Yeah Jokic is a tough one to rank. Efficiency is nice but the volume isn’t too high. Nurkic is the starting center and best player on the team and that isn’t going to change. So Jokic is 100% tied to Faried and he’s signed for 3 more years. If we assume Faried gets traded and Jokic wins the starting PF job I’d go with minutes around the 28 mark. Top 100 for sure but probably not too much better. One number scares the bejesus out of me. Those 5 April games next to Nurkic, I know I know small sample size but Jokic got 30 minutes per game and had a USG of 13.5. For me that’s a pretty big red flag (and proof that this is Nurkic’s team. His USG was 26.7) and if Gallo comes back healthy and gets minutes at the 4 again then even in my best case Jokic won’t get to 28 min. His stat line being useful in a 12er is directly tied to his volume. If they start next year with Faried and Nurkic in the front court then it’ll be really tough to draft Jokic in a 12er.

          • A Hill O' Beans says:
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            @Slim: On top of all that you didn’t even mention that he has a coach who likes to play guys 30 minutes one game and 5 the next so who knows what he’ll do with Jokic next year. Such a shame he’s in a bad situation. He might beone of the best passing bigs in the league already too. I saw some games where they ran the whole offense through him mid-season and he was awesome.

            • Slim

              Slim says:
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              @A Hill O’ Beans: Yeah, but once Nurkic got in he was the PnR guy with Augustin, which is where I think the Jokic USG drop came from. I’ll be praying Faried gets traded. I really do want Jokic to succeed next to Nurkic. I think that has winning potential. With Gallo, Harris, Mudiay starting and Wilson, Barton, DJ off the bench. I think they could surprise. Oh and it’s also a coach that prefers to go small, maybe that can change though if the twin towers succeed.

              • JB Gilpin

                JB Gilpin says:
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                @A Hill O’ Beans: @Threekola: @MAC: @Slim: We all know Mr. Green loves his Jokic! And I would too if not for all the cold water thrown on him above. Still might push top 75 though, and it might start slow ala Gorgui then go nuts. The biggest issue is indeed Faried. Ugh.

              • A Hill O' Beans says:
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                @Slim: @JB Gilpin: I’m not gonna argue over my love for Jokic (I liked him two years ago when he was drafted at 41 and thought the Raps should have taken him at 37 over DeAndre Daniels). I think him and Nurkic can work and if Denver gives it a real chance and it does work, Denver is in a very good position!

                • JB Gilpin

                  JB Gilpin says:
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                  @Slim: @A Hill O’ Beans: Yeah that combo could be pretty sexy! Just need some Manimal Control out there haha

                  • MAC says:
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                    @JB Gilpin: i do hope that lineup with nurkic at 5 jokic at 4 would work. defensively it would be a struggle, as both are natural 5. offensively, it can work as both big are good passers esp jokic. but it definitely is better if its only 1 of them there and have a stretch 4.

                    • JB Gilpin

                      JB Gilpin says:
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                      @MAC: Well, defensively, playing Faried is a struggle! haha. Well jokic can shoot, he’s not a prototypical stretch 4 but I def think it can work

  3. Dante Green says:
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    I got the 5th overall pick for next season and if Thibbs gets the headcoaching in Minny I’m gonna have to really go with Towns. Imagine him playing 36 mins per game next season. I’m really contemplating between him and Leonard, but yea like I said of Thibbs gets the job there’s no way anyone passes up on Karl-Anthony at no. 5. Haha

    • Slim

      Slim says:
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      @Dante Green: Only 36 min with Thibbs? Seems low…

      • A Hill O' Beans says:
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        @Slim: With Thibbs he may get 36 minutes in the first 3 quarters.

        • MAC says:
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          @A Hill O’ Beans: haha! but this definitely makes towns over davis an easier decision.

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
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            @Dante Green: @Slim: @A Hill O’ Beans: @MAC: Hahahaha yeah might get to 38-39! But yup agree, this makes me love the Wolves more, I almost didn’t have Gorgui top 50, but I moved him to like 45 and he might push 40 with the news

            • MAC says:
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              @JB Gilpin: def put dieng in the 30s for minutes. and that makes him top 50 for xur. going from mitchell to thibs is bigtym, as in, bigtym in MINUTES!

              • JB Gilpin

                JB Gilpin says:
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                @MAC: Bigtym Gorgui!

  4. Jay says:
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    Slim – What’s your top 25 looking like so far in comparison to JB’s?

    • Jay says:
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      @Jay: Just so we can see the complete list in one place…

      1. Stephen Curry
      2. Kevin Durant
      3. James Harden
      4. Russell Westbrook
      5. Karl-Anthony Towns
      6. Anthony Davis
      7. Chris Paul
      8. Hassan Whiteside
      9. Kawhi Leonard
      10. Draymond Green
      11. Paul Millsap
      12. Giannis Antetokounmpo
      13. LeBron James
      14. Kyle Lowry
      15. John Wall
      16. Al Horford
      17. DeMarcus Cousins
      18. Damian Lillard
      19. Paul George
      20. Kemba Walker
      21. Jimmy Butler
      22. Kristaps Porzingis
      23. Klay Thompson
      24. LaMarcus Aldridge
      25. Andre Drummond

      • A Hill O' Beans says:
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        @JB Gilpin: @Slim: @Jay: “You like PAUL GEORGE more than ME?!?!??! WHAT IS GOING ON?!?!??!”

        The world no longer makes sense,haha.

        • Slim

          Slim says:
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          @A Hill O’ Beans: Yeah but it’s very much about pairings. With good FG% high TO guys like Curry, Durant, LeBron, Giannis absolutely not! You’re losing the FG% bonus of those guys and punting TOs. But… As a punt FG% guy there’s a lot to like. You just have to keep the TOs down the rest of the way so you aren’t a 2 punt team. Kemba would fit this pretty well, and on a punt FG team the Goose might be top 12.

          If I knew, just KNEW Porzingis would fall to 36 then I would love to go with Lillard, George at the turn, Goose at 36, and maybe IT2/3rds at 37. Try to get Gallo later, Crowder would fit nicely, Ariza maybe later on too. A bit shy on assists but someone like Conley down the road would be phenominal with his 4:1 A:TO ratio. 2 PGs in the top 4, a high end shot blocking big, and a wing. Will be looking for another shotblocker obviously. Preferably someone that isn’t too bad to FTs but you could survive a small hit there.

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
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            @A Hill O’ Beans: @Slim:@Slim: Look at Slim, falling in love with George and his elite-ness!

            That said, yeah that team would be really tough to beat with an all out assault on FG% punting haha

    • Slim

      Slim says:
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      @Jay: I haven’t put too much thought into putting an actual number next to peoples names. It’s something I do more once I start doing projections and I’m no longer comparing people but instead comparing 9cat stat lines.

      Top of my head… Whiteside after Millsap. Wall and Lillard before Lowry. Probably go with George over Horford and Cousins. I would love to go with a FG punt pairing of Lillard and George and hope the Goose drops to me in the 3rd. That would be a fun team. Klay and Aldridge out of the top 25. I’d move Drummond up since someone is going to FT punt which makes Drummond a bargain in the 2nd round. I remember there was a commenter that really liked Drummond with Curry. I could get on board that. I’m not sure I’m sold on Kemba in the 2nd. I think I’d move Griffin into the top 25. I’ll be keeping a close eye on Bledsoe’s recovery, he may sneak in.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Jay: @Slim: great idea once I finish the top 50, I’ll put the whole list together at the end.

        Yeah Slim and I disputed Whiteside some while I was putting these together.

        Whoa, wait WHAT?! You like PAUL GEORGE more than ME?!?!??! WHAT IS GOING ON?!?!??!

        • MAC says:
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          @JB Gilpin: i think that was me pairing curry with drumm or deandre. hehe. and i actually got to do that in my both leagues this season and both won. including JB very early draft league. haha! anyways i def not expect to be THAT lucky again and have pick 1 in both leagues. im a big fan of punting in H2H, especially FT. and curry durant are both big tym assets in those builds bec of their high volume FG effeiency. it def depends on where you draft and who would be your ace players.

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
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            @MAC: Yeah pairing is so tough to talk about when your pick is randomized only 45 mins before a draft haha

            • MAC says:
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              @JB Gilpin: yeah man, thats why were already talking bout rankings this early. haha!

              • Slim

                Slim says:
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                @MAC: Yep, gotta start talking pairing as early as possible so you can cover as many as possible.

                • MAC says:
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                  @Slim: thoughts on picking late slim? wheres lebron at ur rakings right now?

                  • Slim

                    Slim says:
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                    @MAC: Not top 7… but even at a tick below where he used to be I think he’s still the top punt FT guy. I’ll go Kawhi 8 with another year of the Spurs getting older and probably bringing in nothing but more old guys. I think LeBron probably goes 9 for me. Then 10/11/12 maybe Draymond, Millsap, Whiteside. Then maybe Giannis, Wall, Lillard in some order that I’m not sure of yet. Then I think I’ll go Drummond with LeBron. Who to pair with Kawhi…? I don’t know.

                    • MAC says:
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                      @Slim: same here, def going punt ft with him going drumm next pick. i still have him at 8 over dray, kawhi, sap in that order. i think lebron and drays assist puts them above kawhi and sap.

                      if i end up with kawhi, my next pick would be a PG. id definitely go with wall. just hard to not pick an elite PG in the first 2 rounds. i like going PG or BIG in the first 6 rounds. especially PG, i like getting them early and often. it gets dry fast. gotta treat kawhi as a big in the mold of dray and sap with his blks.

  5. Adam

    Adam says:
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    Love the Giannis rank, there’s really nothing I can see that Lebron has on him. They both suck at 3s, but the freak definitely takes the other categories with his new PG side. The rank is relying on the Bucks not acquiring a true PG though… I could see him taking a hit then, since he’s not really a shooter.

    • MAC says:
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      @Adam: pts, 3s, FG for lebron??? giannis def has blks. still depends on what the bucks do in the offseason. but i still cant see taking him over lebron.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Adam: @MAC: Thanks man! Yeah obviously doing ranks before free agency can make em prone to a lot of changes haha. I dunno if FG% is gonna be that different MAC. Pts def goes to LeBron, but as mentioned above, love dem swats!

        • Adam

          Adam says:
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          @JB Gilpin: As long as Giannis doesn’t settle for too many jumpers, he’ll definitely be in the LBJ mold. It’s ironic that the stupid comparison was made with KD initially. With the muscle that he’s added, he’s definitely more of a Lebron comp now. Still would be nice to see his spot-up game improve.

      • Adam

        Adam says:
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        @MAC: 3s have been way down for LBJ lately and FG% will continue to decline as he gets older and starts to settle more. He may not overtake him in those categories this year, but they’re definitely becoming comparable.

        • MAC says:
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          @Adam: its all about giannis upside vs lebrons decline. but for next season, i still cant see going giannis over lebron yet. lebron has pts, 3, FG, by a good margin, while giannis has blk. even if giannis doubles his 3, FG should go down. and this is assuming giannis would be a full tym PG and actually be close to lebron in asst. offseason is definitely a big factor, its just that lebrons floor is giannis ceiling for next season. and for me, id rather draft for a players floor than ceiling early, especially a 1st and 2nd rounder.

          • Adam

            Adam says:
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            @MAC: Last year, Giannis had a FG% of just over 50% and LBJ was at 52%. A year older from this year, I could easily see LBJ dropping to the 50% range. In fact he was at 49% the year before. LBJ will still provide a 3 a game at a pretty ugly percentage, but it’s not big enough to really factor… It all comes down to whether Giannis plays the point or not.

            Clearly you won’t have to take Giannis as high as JB has him ranked, and that’s why the huge appeal is there. You can get a player of close to Lebron’s caliber, likely in the early 3rd round.

            • MAC says:
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              @Adam: definitely not taking giannis where JB has him. and definitely not over Lebron. i can actually see Lebron being overrated next season in ranks, maybe up to as high as 5. i would not take him there for xur. where does lebron fall for u? i agree with JB top 7, and i still have lebron at 8. agree, giannis can easily fall in 20s in the rankings and that would be a steal. hes definitely a great consolation if u cant get 1 of dray-kawhi-millsap trio.

              • JB Gilpin

                JB Gilpin says:
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                @Adam: @MAC: @MAC: I think the KD comp was lazy because they’re both tall and lanky. I think he’s somewhere in-between and more unique.

                I think you guys are wrong, Giannis ADP will NO QUESTION be top-15. Now, am I too high at 12? Sure – that’s debatable, but I don’t think I’m gonna be on an island like that other young player from the north midwest last yr… Aherm… Yeah.

                Last follow up, I disagree Giannis’ upside = LeBron’s floor. LeBron is trending down and Giannis was unbelievable down the stretch. That said, I do agree with that statement if the Bucks bring in a solid PG, it would be tough to see Giannis maintaining crazy USG

                • MAC says:
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                  @JB Gilpin: hopefully thats not the case. but in a razzball league, giannis def would not get past 15. its all where ur picking, picking late r u really gonna pass on lebron? i can still see going lebron drumm punt ft if picking late. dont get me wrong, i love me some giannis, after the big 3 multicat monsters giannis is a great alternative. i mean, i can actually see myself picking him over millsap. but not lebron, dray, kawhi though. the hell why not have a lebron giannis pairing if picking late. hehe

                  • JB Gilpin

                    JB Gilpin says:
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                    @MAC: Yeah I would! I plan on making the playoffs and don’t want DNP headaches. Hah Giannis Lebron might be a nasssssty start tho!

                    • MAC says:
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                      @JB Gilpin: yeah, that would be the knock on lebron late. cavs would probably be ahead by that tym in the standings. but you could say that as well with the warriors. if not for the record, they probably gave 1 game or 2 rest to curry and draymond during fantasy playoffs. anyway, thats too far down the road, releasing of schedules should be a big factor as well. cp3 and bron will be 31 and 32 respectively for next season. damn. hehe

                  • JB Gilpin

                    JB Gilpin says:
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                    @MAC: They gettin old like we runnin’ outta room on this comment thread! haha

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