Top-155 Roto Projections, 2023-24 Fantasy Basketball

It has undoubtedly been a fun summer for basketball fans, starting with a highly anticipated draft class, continuing with some enjoyable trade activity in the league and finishing with a bang with one of the best, if not the best Basketball World Cup tournaments in history. So after watching too many World Cup games go to over 100 points for my European basketball brain, patiently waiting for a Lillard trade to materialize that hasn’t yet, reflecting upon the performance review of last year’s projections and overthinking about them at weird times at night instead of sleeping like a normal human being, I am excited to present you for the seventh straight year my 2023-24 top 155 projections for roto.

As always, note that each player’s value presented is their per-game value, so some players will be higher than the position I would draft them. Injury risk, games played and personal preference are not included, so use them as a baseline for your drafts, but do rearrange them based on your preferences and willingness to risk. A good example of this is Kyrie Irving, who I have ranked at no 3 but has a major disadvantage by being Kyrie Irving. So there is a risk by drafting him with random missed games, sitting chunks of the season for unspecified reasons, etc but he is a per-game monster and this is reflected in his ranking. If you are interested in finding out the method used to calculate the player values, check this previous article of mine. Without further ado, let’s check the projections before I mention some notable players.

*Editors Note: Numbers have been updated by author after the recent Jrue Holiday Trade.

#	Name	Value	p/g	3/g	r/g	a/g	s/g	b/g	fg%	fga/g	ft%	fta/g	to/g
1	Nikola Jokic	0.690	24.3	1.0	12.0	9.4	1.3	0.7	60	15.2	82	6.2	3.7
2	Joel Embiid	0.602	31.9	1.1	10.3	4.2	1.0	1.6	53	19.8	85	11.5	3.3
3	Kyrie Irving	0.498	26.5	3.0	5.0	5.8	1.2	0.7	50	19.2	91	4.7	2
4	Kevin Durant	0.494	27.6	1.9	6.9	4.8	0.8	1.3	55	17.7	91	6.9	3.1
7	Shai Gilgeous	0.447	30.9	1.2	5.0	5.7	1.4	0.9	50	20	87	11.1	3
6	Tyrese Haliburton	0.445	21.7	3.0	3.9	10.1	1.5	0.5	49	15.7	86	3.8	2.6
5	Anthony Davis	0.440	24.8	0.3	11.2	2.8	1.1	1.9	55	17.2	76	7.3	2.1
8	Kawhi Leonard	0.429	24.5	2.0	6.5	4.2	1.4	0.5	51	17.2	88	5.6	1.8
9	Stephen Curry	0.389	28.0	4.7	5.7	5.6	1.0	0.3	48	19.7	92	4.8	3.1
10	Jayson Tatum	0.377	28.6	3.1	8.3	5.0	1.1	0.7	47	20.1	85	7.8	3
11	Damian Lillard	0.327	29.6	3.9	4.4	7.3	0.8	0.3	45	19.7	90	8.8	3.1
12	Luka Doncic	0.319	31.5	3.0	8.8	8.2	1.3	0.5	48	21.8	74	10.2	3.7
13	Jimmy Butler	0.289	21.2	0.5	5.6	5.0	1.6	0.3	51	13.4	86	8.2	1.8
14	Domantas Sabonis	0.274	19.1	0.4	12.2	7.0	0.9	0.5	60	12.2	74	5.5	3
15	LaMelo Ball	0.263	23.3	3.8	6.8	8.7	1.5	0.3	43	19.4	84	3.4	3.4
16	LeBron James	0.257	28.2	2.3	8.0	6.4	1.0	0.6	51	21.1	76	5.8	3.3
17	James Harden	0.252	19.9	2.7	5.7	9.8	1.2	0.5	44	13.8	87	5.8	3.2
18	Jaren Jackson Jr	0.251	19.4	1.8	6.9	1.1	1.0	2.6	49	13.7	81	5.2	1.8
20	Donovan Mitchell	0.236	27.0	3.6	4.4	4.6	1.5	0.3	46	20.6	86	5.2	2.7
21	Kristaps Porzingis	0.236	19.4	2.0	8.6	2.3	0.8	1.5	48	13.6	86	5.1	1.8
22	Devin Booker	0.221	26.6	2.3	4.8	5.8	1.0	0.3	49	19.1	86	6.5	2.5
19	Lauri Markkanen	0.214	24.5	3.0	8.1	2.0	0.7	0.6	48	17.1	87	5.9	2
24	Myles Turner	0.197	16.9	1.5	7.3	1.2	0.7	2.5	53	11.4	78	4.3	1.5
26	Mikal Bridges	0.181	20.7	2.0	4.4	3.1	1.2	0.7	49	15.3	86	4.3	1.3
23	Nikola Vucevic	0.181	16.6	1.4	10.8	3.2	0.8	0.8	51	13.5	82	1.8	1.7
25	Anthony Edwards	0.179	26.4	2.9	6.0	4.8	1.6	0.7	47	20.4	77	5.6	3.2
27	Karl-Anthony Towns	0.171	21.2	2.2	8.4	4.9	0.7	0.8	50	14.8	86	4.9	2.9
28	Desmond Bane	0.167	22.7	3.0	4.8	4.1	1.1	0.4	47	17.4	89	3.8	2
29	Jarrett Allen	0.163	14.9	0.0	10.0	1.7	0.8	1.3	65	9.5	72	3.6	1.4
30	Nicolas Claxton	0.159	13.4	0.0	9.7	2.1	0.9	2.2	68	8.4	56	3.5	1.5
33	DeMar DeRozan	0.154	25.3	0.7	4.9	5.0	1.0	0.4	50	18.2	87	7.4	2.2
31	Bam Adebayo	0.154	19.8	0.0	9.6	3.0	1.2	0.8	55	14.2	80	5.2	2.4
40	Deandre Ayton	0.151	19.3	0.2	11.1	1.7	0.6	1.0	58	14.2	76	3.5	1.8
34	Jalen Brunson	0.150	24.6	2.1	3.7	6.5	0.9	0.1	50	17.9	83	5.6	2
35	Paul George	0.148	23.7	2.9	6.4	5.3	1.4	0.4	45	18.2	87	5.1	3.3
36	Dejounte Murray	0.142	20.9	1.9	5.9	6.3	1.5	0.3	46	18.2	82	2.8	2.3
38	Pascal Siakam	0.125	25.3	1.3	8.0	6.3	1.0	0.5	48	19.4	77	7	2.6
32	Giannis Antetokounmpo	0.112	29.0	0.8	11.7	5.8	0.9	1.0	56	18.4	67	11.4	3.7
39	Trae Young	0.102	27.2	2.5	3.2	9.9	1.0	0.1	44	19.5	89	8.5	4
49	Mark Williams	0.098	13.7	0.0	10.8	0.8	0.9	1.3	63	9	69	3.4	1.4
41	Fred VanVleet	0.092	17.8	2.8	3.3	6.1	1.6	0.5	40	14.6	89	3.7	2
42	Walker Kessler	0.088	12.0	0.0	10.5	1.2	0.5	2.3	70	7.5	52	2.9	1.2
43	Zion Williamson	0.087	26.7	0.3	7.3	4.9	1.1	0.6	60	16.9	70	8.8	3.2
44	Evan Mobley	0.087	17.2	0.5	9.4	3.0	0.9	1.6	54	12.9	68	4.1	2
45	Cameron Johnson	0.080	17.1	2.5	4.8	2.3	1.3	0.3	47	12.5	85	3.4	1.1
46	De’Aaron Fox	0.076	24.8	1.5	4.0	6.4	1.3	0.4	50	18.6	76	6.2	2.6
50	O.G.Anunoby	0.074	18.7	2.4	5.0	2.8	1.5	0.7	47	15	80	2.7	1.9
47	Rudy Gobert	0.071	13.8	0.0	12.1	1.2	0.8	1.6	67	7.8	65	5.2	1.8
48	Victor Wembanyama	0.068	18.2	1.1	9.6	2.1	0.6	2.4	46	14.4	81	4.7	2.4
51	Jalen Williams	0.065	16.3	1.2	4.9	3.6	1.4	0.5	52	12.1	82	3.1	1.7
37	Jrue Holiday	0.051	17.2	2.2	4.9	7.0	1.2	0.4	48	13.5	83	2.4	2.7
67	Franz Wagner	0.049	20.5	1.8	5.0	3.9	1.1	0.4	49	15.3	85	4.4	2.1
52	Clint Capela	0.046	11.2	0.0	10.7	0.8	0.7	1.2	63	8	58	2	0.7
53	Darius Garland	0.044	21.6	2.5	3.0	8.0	1.2	0.1	46	16.6	87	4.4	3
54	Jamal Murray	0.037	20.4	2.6	4.0	6.0	1.1	0.2	46	16.4	85	3.2	2.2
55	Zach LaVine	0.035	24.6	2.7	4.6	4.4	0.8	0.3	48	17.9	85	5.6	2.6
56	Jakob Poeltl	0.033	12.8	0.0	9.3	2.4	0.9	1.4	63	8.9	57	2.8	1.5
60	Tobias Harris	0.032	16.4	1.9	6.2	3.3	0.8	0.6	49	12.5	87	2.6	1.5
57	Ja Morant	0.031	27.4	1.7	5.8	7.3	1.2	0.3	48	20.2	75	8.4	3.3
58	Michael Porter	0.030	18.1	3.0	6.2	1.3	0.8	0.6	49	13.8	79	2	1.3
59	Devin Vassell	0.027	20.0	2.8	4.2	4.0	1.2	0.5	45	16.6	80	2.8	1.7
77	Chet Holmgren	0.025	12.6	1.2	8.8	1.8	0.6	2.2	51	9.4	71	2.6	1.7
61	Tyrese Maxey	0.021	21.9	2.9	3.0	3.8	0.8	0.2	48	16.3	85	3.9	1.5
80	Daniel Gafford	0.020	12.8	0.0	8.2	1.8	0.5	1.8	70	7.6	68	3.2	1.6
62	Robert Williams	0.018	8.5	0.0	8.0	1.5	0.7	1.6	74	5.2	63	1.2	1
64	Cade Cunningham	0.014	22.1	2.0	6.6	6.6	1.2	0.6	43	19.5	84	4	3.1
65	Alperen Sengun	0.010	15.7	0.4	9.4	4.2	0.9	1.0	55	11.3	72	4	2.5
66	Scottie Barnes	0.007	17.7	1.0	7.0	5.5	1.1	0.8	47	14.8	76	3.7	2.2
68	Jaylen Brown	-0.001	24.9	2.5	6.5	3.4	1.1	0.3	49	19.1	76	4.8	2.9
69	Chris Paul	-0.003	12.5	1.5	3.8	7.0	1.3	0.3	47	9.6	83	2.4	1.8
70	Mitchell Robinson	-0.003	7.9	0.0	9.2	1.0	1.0	1.8	69	4.9	49	2.3	0.8
71	Brook Lopez	-0.008	14.1	1.6	6.1	1.1	0.5	1.8	51	10.6	82	2.1	1.2
63	John Collins	-0.008	16.4	1.2	7.2	1.5	0.6	1.0	52	12.2	80	3.1	1.2
72	Klay Thompson	-0.009	22.5	4.3	4.0	2.6	0.7	0.4	44	18.6	88	2.1	1.6
73	Tyus Jones	-0.011	14.5	1.9	3.8	7.8	1.2	0.1	43	12.8	81	2	1.5
74	Terry Rozier	-0.017	21.2	2.8	4.2	4.6	1.2	0.3	43	18.2	83	3.3	1.9
76	Onyeka Okongwu	-0.021	10.9	0.1	7.5	1.1	0.7	1.4	65	6.7	76	2.7	1.1
84	Bradley Beal	-0.025	21.7	1.7	4.3	6.2	0.9	0.6	49	16.8	84	4.2	3.1
78	Julius Randle	-0.033	24.4	2.6	10.0	4.4	0.6	0.3	46	18.2	76	6.6	3
79	Josh Giddey	-0.034	17.2	1.2	8.1	6.5	0.9	0.4	48	15.2	72	2	2.6
81	Jerami Grant	-0.035	20.6	2.2	4.6	2.6	0.9	0.9	46	15	83	5.6	2
82	Josh Hart	-0.036	10.0	1.2	7.3	3.6	1.2	0.3	52	6.6	76	2.5	1.4
75	Trey Murphy	-0.038	13.8	2.5	3.1	1.2	1.1	0.5	48	9.7	88	2.3	0.7
99	Khris Middleton	-0.042	18.8	2.1	5.2	5.5	1.0	0.2	45	14.6	89	4	2.6
94	Tyler Herro	-0.044	21.4	3.1	5.1	5.0	0.8	0.2	44	17.5	91	3.2	2.6
86	Miles Bridges	-0.057	17.8	1.8	6.2	3.1	0.7	0.7	48	13.5	80	3.8	1.7
87	Brandon Ingram	-0.058	23.9	1.7	5.3	5.3	0.7	0.4	47	18.2	87	5.8	3.1
88	Keegan Murray	-0.059	15.1	2.9	5.0	1.4	0.9	0.6	47	11.6	78	1.6	1.1
89	Wendell Carter Jr	-0.060	15.6	1.5	9.2	2.5	0.6	0.7	52	11.1	73	3.5	1.9
91	Bruce Brown	-0.065	14.3	1.5	5.7	3.7	1.2	0.7	47	11.7	76	2.4	1.8
95	Anfernee Simons	-0.070	22.6	3.5	2.8	4.5	0.7	0.2	45	18	89	3.3	2.2
92	Jalen Duren	-0.071	10.7	0.0	10.6	1.4	0.7	1.1	66	6.9	63	2.6	1.7
93	CJ McCollum	-0.073	20.7	2.9	4.2	5.3	0.9	0.4	45	17.2	76	3	2.2
96	Andrew Wiggins	-0.081	18.1	2.4	5.1	2.0	1.1	0.8	47	15	63	2.5	1.4
97	Zach Collins	-0.087	13.7	1.3	7.7	3.6	0.8	1.0	49	10.7	78	2.5	2.3
90	Immanuel Quickley	-0.088	16.5	2.2	4.2	3.6	1.0	0.2	45	12.8	84	3.3	1.4
98	Jaden McDaniels	-0.090	13.7	1.5	4.4	2.2	1.0	1.1	51	10.4	75	2.1	1.5
109	Jusuf Nurkic	-0.099	13.7	0.7	10.1	3.0	0.9	0.8	52	10	67	3.9	2.1
85	Derrick White	-0.099	12.9	1.9	3.8	4.8	0.8	0.9	44	10	87	2.5	1.6
100	Mike Conley	-0.100	12.8	2.2	2.9	5.4	1.1	0.2	44	9.5	83	2.7	1.4
101	Buddy Hield	-0.103	15.7	3.3	4.7	2.6	1.0	0.3	44	12.6	85	1.5	1.7
102	Obi Toppin	-0.104	15.8	2.4	4.2	2.6	0.8	0.5	47	12.8	78	1.7	1.1
103	Al Horford	-0.108	9.5	2.0	5.9	2.8	0.5	0.9	47	7.5	75	0.6	0.7
104	Markelle Fultz	-0.108	14.1	0.5	4.1	6.0	1.4	0.4	50	11.7	79	2.4	2.4
105	Kevin Huerter	-0.111	14.5	2.5	3.4	2.8	1.0	0.3	48	11.2	78	1.6	1.2
106	Jabari Smith	-0.116	15.9	2.0	8.0	1.5	0.6	1.2	43	13.4	80	3	1.6
127	Jordan Poole	-0.120	25.2	3.1	3.3	5.2	0.8	0.3	42	18.7	88	7.3	3.3
83	Malcolm Brogdon	-0.122	14.6	2.0	4.2	4.5	0.7	0.3	47	10.8	86	2.9	1.6
113	Saddiq Bey	-0.122	14.8	2.3	5.5	1.9	0.9	0.2	44	11.9	85	2.4	1
108	Tre Jones	-0.126	12.3	0.7	3.4	6.3	1.2	0.1	47	10.3	84	2.3	1.5
107	Bogdan Bogdanovic	-0.126	15.4	2.8	3.5	3.1	0.9	0.3	45	12.5	84	1.6	1.3
145	Paul Reed	-0.130	8.7	0.1	6.9	1.0	1.1	1.1	57	6.6	72	1.5	1.2
110	Austin Reaves	-0.130	15.2	1.6	3.5	4.2	0.5	0.3	52	9.2	86	4.7	1.6
120	Marcus Smart	-0.131	13.3	2.1	3.7	5.8	1.5	0.4	41	11.2	77	2.6	2.2
111	Kyle Anderson	-0.137	8.6	0.6	5.0	4.6	1.1	0.8	49	6.8	72	1.8	1.3
112	Herbert Jones	-0.137	9.5	0.8	4.0	2.3	1.6	0.7	47	7.4	80	2.2	1.3
114	Matisse Thybulle	-0.139	6.8	1.1	3.2	1.2	1.7	1.0	44	5.8	72	0.8	0.7
115	Paolo Banchero	-0.141	22.8	1.5	7.4	4.2	0.9	0.6	45	17.2	75	7.8	2.6
116	Kevon Looney	-0.145	7.1	0.0	9.0	2.1	0.6	0.6	61	5	60	1.7	0.4
135	Ben Simmons	-0.150	8.7	0.0	6.8	7.0	1.4	0.6	55	7.2	50	1.6	2.7
118	Ivica Zubac	-0.152	10.5	0.0	9.0	0.9	0.4	1.2	64	6.6	71	2.9	1.3
123	Gary Trent Jr	-0.165	15.3	2.3	2.3	1.6	1.4	0.2	42	13	84	2.5	0.8
119	Spencer Dinwiddie	-0.165	16.7	1.8	3.8	7.5	0.8	0.3	42	13.6	80	4.4	2.1
122	Jonas Valanciunas	-0.166	12.8	0.5	9.5	1.5	0.3	0.6	56	9.2	82	2.4	1.7
124	Patrick Williams	-0.169	11.9	1.6	4.5	1.4	1.0	0.9	48	9.4	83	1.5	1.4
117	Richaun Holmes	-0.170	10.5	0.1	7.4	1.2	0.4	1.0	62	7.1	78	2.1	1.2
125	D’Angelo Russell	-0.176	16.8	2.7	2.8	5.9	0.8	0.3	45	13	82	2.9	2.4
126	Aaron Gordon	-0.178	15.7	1.1	6.2	3.0	0.7	0.7	54	11	64	4.3	1.5
121	Draymond Green	-0.182	7.7	0.4	7.1	6.2	1.1	0.8	52	6.2	71	1.2	2.9
128	Caleb Martin	-0.182	10.9	1.4	5.2	1.9	1.1	0.5	47	8.5	78	1.9	1.2
129	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.182	11.2	1.9	2.9	2.2	1.3	0.4	45	8.7	85	1.7	1.2
130	Tari Eason	-0.184	10.8	0.9	7.0	1.3	1.2	0.6	46	9	75	2.1	1.3
131	De’Anthony Melton	-0.186	9.4	1.9	3.9	2.3	1.4	0.5	42	8	78	1	1.2
132	Deni Avdija	-0.195	11.6	1.3	7.4	3.5	1.0	0.5	43	9.7	75	2.6	1.8
133	PJ Washington	-0.203	13.7	1.7	4.7	2.2	0.8	1.0	45	11.7	73	2	1.3
134	Bojan Bogdanovic	-0.204	19.2	2.4	3.7	2.2	0.5	0.1	47	13.8	87	4.4	1.7
136	Donte DiVincenzo	-0.208	9.6	2.0	4.3	3.3	1.3	0.2	42	7.7	83	1.4	1.6
137	Alex Caruso	-0.210	7.0	1.0	3.3	3.4	1.5	0.6	44	5.5	80	1.4	1.4
138	Jalen Green	-0.212	24.5	2.7	3.9	4.0	0.8	0.3	44	18.9	80	6.5	2.8
139	Keldon Johnson	-0.213	18.7	2.0	5.5	2.3	0.7	0.2	47	14.7	75	3.8	1.6
140	Bobby Portis	-0.215	12.9	1.2	8.8	1.3	0.3	0.2	50	10.6	76	1.4	1
141	Josh Richardson	-0.217	12.4	2.0	3.1	2.8	1.1	0.4	43	10.2	88	1.8	1.4
142	Grant Williams	-0.226	11.3	2.0	5.7	2.3	0.7	0.5	45	8.7	77	1.9	1.3
143	Cole Anthony	-0.232	12.9	1.5	4.9	4.0	0.6	0.4	44	10	88	3	1.7
144	Steven Adams	-0.235	8.1	0.0	11.0	2.5	0.9	1.0	58	5.9	45	2.9	1.7
146	Seth Curry	-0.238	13.3	2.6	2.4	2.2	0.7	0.1	47	9.8	90	1.7	1.1
147	Norman Powell	-0.254	17.2	2.0	3.0	1.9	0.8	0.3	47	12.1	81	4.7	1.6
148	Jalen Johnson	-0.277	8.9	0.9	6.3	2.3	0.7	0.8	47	7.5	70	1.4	1.3
149	Kyle Lowry	-0.279	9.5	1.7	3.4	4.8	0.9	0.3	42	7.1	86	2.1	1.8
150	Kyle Kuzma	-0.282	22.1	2.6	7.7	4.2	0.6	0.6	43	19.2	72	4.2	3.3
153	Scoot Henderson	-0.283	16.4	1.4	5.0	6.6	1.1	0.4	43	14.8	77	3	3.3
151	Kelly Olynyk	-0.284	10.3	1.1	5.0	3.0	0.8	0.4	48	7.3	84	2.6	1.8
152	Brandon Miller	-0.286	12.7	2.2	4.8	2.0	0.8	0.3	42	10.6	83	1.9	1.4
154	Collin Sexton	-0.298	16.5	1.2	3.0	3.8	0.8	0.1	49	11.8	82	4.6	2.2
155	Isaiah Stewart	-0.317	11.0	1.4	8.2	1.4	0.4	0.7	44	8.7	73	2.6	1.4
156	Jaden Ivey	-0.346	17.9	2.0	4.1	5.5	0.9	0.2	43	14.1	76	5	3

Notable Players

Kyrie Irving: As mentioned in the introduction, Yes I think he can end the season ranked top3 in per game value. No, I have absolutely no confidence he can be top3 in total value, because he is Kyrie Irving.

Jaren Jackson Jr: Players that are outliers in a specific category greatly benefit from the z-scores approach used to derive the total value, so JJJ’s blocks elevate his value a lot. I would draft him with confidence a round later that the one projected here.

Lauri Markkanen: I was banging the Markkanen drum since before last season’s draft and fortunately I drafted him everywhere I could, with a discount last year. No discount expected this year but he is still a uniquely good big man option for a lot of builds.

Anthony Edwards: He is always mentioned in each year’s article as I always seem to be more pessimistic than the consensus with him, but I have been usually right. However this season I think he takes another step towards true superstardom and is inside my top25. If he corrects the ft% issues, sky is the limit.

Giannis Antetokounmpo: Giannis is the victim of the reverse scoring effect I mention with JJJ. His Ft% combined with how many he attempts drag his value down disproportionally in a roto league. Draft him with confidence inside the 1^st round in H2H leagues.

Victor Wembanyama: Historically, I have been very reserved with rookie projections and I will make no exception this year, even for Victor. I do think he will be more and more productive as the season progresses and it is rare for a rookie to crack the top50, but that’s as high as I’m willing to project his numbers.

Daniel Gafford: Kristaps Porzingis is out of Washington, so is Bradley Beal and the Wizards have a lot of minutes and usage to fill so I think Gafford has all the opportunity for a breakout year.

Jordan Poole: Poole should have an even better opportunity than Daniel Gafford to produce for the Wizards and his usage will certainly surpass his career high, but his FG%, lack of defensive stats and increased turnovers bump him down the scoring board. Still a great source of points later at a draft, which is rather uncommon.

Brandon Miller – Scoot Henderson: No2 and no3 of this year’s draft barely made the top155 and for good reason. I based Scoot’s prediction with Lillard still in Portland and I think that he might not start the season with that scenario. The same can be said for Miller, with Miles Bridges, PJ Washington and Gordon Hayward competing for minutes at the forward spots.

I will gladly discuss those notable players and any of the projections with you fine folks in the comments down below. Let me know who you are targeting or avoiding in fantasy drafts, what punt build you have in mind and any other fantasy related questions. Happy drafting and I sincerely hope the projections help you conquer your fantasy leagues once again!