The 2023-24 season is almost here and all us fantasy nerds are getting ready to draft for the many leagues (always too many leagues) we will participate this year. As a great coach in real life would do, the offseason is the best time to reflect on last year’s fantasy choices, identify mistakes and improve upon them, to secure fantasy goodness at the end of the season. That is exactly what I will be doing with this article and have been doing since 2017 in this internet fantasy corner, so let’s get on with the review of last year’s roto projections in order to make this year’s projections better, as well as to identify potential opportunities and hazards in the upcoming draft. If you are interested to learn about the math behind the process and how I calculate the accuracy of the projections, check the initial article and I’d be happy to answer questions in the comments.
Missed Players
Every year, I summarize the players that are categorized as “misses.” These are the players that have a value difference between the projected and the actual value that is above the standard deviation. Again, if you are interested to learn more, check the first article of the review series here. The first line for each player is my projection from last year, while the second is their actual stats for the 2020-21 season. The third line is the difference and the fourth is the difference expressed as a percentage of the respective standard deviation.
| Name | Val | Pts | 3pt | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | Fg% | Ft% | To |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 0.48 | 29.7 | 1.2 | 11.4 | 5.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 56 | 72 | 3.3 |
| 2022-23 Stats | -0.07 | 31.1 | 0.7 | 11.8 | 5.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 55 | 65 | 3.9 |
| Diff | -0.55 | 1.44 | -0.45 | 0.38 | -0.20 | -0.27 | -0.49 | -1 | -7 | 0.6 |
| SD% | 1.00 | -0.79 | -0.57 | -0.85 | -0.91 | -0.21 | -0.04 | -0.91 | -0.23 | -0.29 |
| Name | Val | Pts | 3pt | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | Fg% | Ft% | To |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Williams | 0.37 | 10.8 | 0.0 | 9.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 73 | 70 | 1.1 |
| 2022-23 Stats | 0.00 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 8.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 75 | 61 | 1 |
| Diff | -0.37 | -2.9 | 0.0 | -1.2 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.6 | 2 | -9 | -0.1 |
| SD% | 0.35 | -0.58 | -1.00 | -0.53 | -0.84 | 0.06 | 0.23 | -0.77 | -0.07 | -0.85 |
| Name | Val | Pts | 3pt | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | Fg% | Ft% | To |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous | 0.25 | 25.2 | 1.8 | 5 | 6.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 48 | 81 | 2.7 |
| 2022-23 Stats | 0.73 | 31.4 | 0.9 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 51 | 91 | 2.8 |
| Diff | 0.48 | 6.2 | -0.9 | -0.2 | -0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 3 | 10 | 0.1 |
| SD% | 0.74 | -0.09 | -0.10 | -0.93 | -0.72 | 0.28 | -0.50 | -0.59 | -0.02 | -0.85 |
| Name | Val | Pts | 3pt | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | Fg% | Ft% | To |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauri Markkanen | -0.01 | 17.4 | 2.6 | 6.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 44 | 85 | 1.3 |
| 2022-23 Stats | 0.35 | 25.6 | 3.0 | 8.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 50 | 87 | 1.9 |
| Diff | 0.36 | 8.3 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 0.3 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 6 | 2 | 0.6 |
| SD% | 0.3 | 0.22 | -0.59 | -0.22 | -0.89 | -0.53 | -0.85 | -0.20 | -0.75 | -0.27 |
| Name | Val | Pts | 3pt | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | Fg% | Ft% | To |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaren Jackson Jr | -0.03 | 15.3 | 1.4 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 42 | 82 | 1.6 |
| 2022-23 Stats | 0.48 | 18.6 | 1.6 | 6.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 51 | 79 | 1.7 |
| Diff | 0.51 | 3.4 | 0.2 | 1.3 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 9 | -3 | 0.1 |
| SD% | 0.85 | -0.51 | -0.82 | -0.49 | -0.94 | -0.34 | 1.15 | 0.18 | -0.67 | -0.88 |
| Name | Val | Pts | 3pt | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | Fg% | Ft% | To |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Smith | -0.06 | 14.5 | 1.6 | 8.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 49 | 75 | 1.3 |
| 2022-23 Stats | -0.37 | 9.4 | 0.8 | 5.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 48 | 76 | 1.1 |
| Diff | -0.31 | -5.1 | -0.8 | -2.6 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -1 | 1 | -0.2 |
| SD% | 0.12 | -0.25 | -0.24 | 0.05 | -0.94 | -0.45 | -0.38 | -0.81 | -0.91 | -0.72 |
| Name | Val | Pts | 3pt | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | Fg% | Ft% | To |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brook Lopez | -0.11 | 13.4 | 1.6 | 4.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 48 | 86 | 1 |
| 2022-23 Stats | 0.27 | 15.9 | 1.7 | 6.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 53 | 78 | 1.4 |
| Diff | 0.38 | 2.5 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | -0.1 | 1.2 | 5 | -8 | 0.4 |
| SD% | 0.38 | -0.63 | -0.86 | -0.09 | -0.75 | -0.64 | 1.29 | -0.31 | -0.22 | -0.56 |
| Name | Val | Pts | 3pt | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | Fg% | Ft% | To |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Claxton | -0.15 | 11.5 | 0.0 | 6.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 64 | 60 | 1.2 |
| 2022-23 Stats | 0.27 | 12.6 | 0.0 | 9.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 2.5 | 71 | 54 | 1.3 |
| Diff | 0.42 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 7 | -6 | 0.1 |
| SD% | 0.53 | -0.83 | -1.00 | -0.02 | -0.74 | -0.56 | 1.12 | -0.11 | -0.39 | -0.93 |
| Name | Val | Pts | 3pt | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | Fg% | Ft% | To |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Duarte | -0.21 | 14.4 | 1.9 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 45 | 82 | 1.7 |
| 2022-23 Stats | -0.58 | 7.9 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 37 | 85 | 0.9 |
| Diff | -0.37 | -6.5 | -0.7 | -1.9 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -0.1 | -8 | 3 | -0.8 |
| SD% | 0.35 | -0.04 | -0.33 | -0.24 | -0.74 | 0.59 | -0.80 | 0.10 | -0.72 | -0.05 |
| Name | Val | Pts | 3pt | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | Fg% | Ft% | To |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javale McGee | -0.22 | 10.9 | 0.0 | 8.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 60 | 68 | 1.5 |
| 2022-23 Stats | -0.73 | 4.4 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 64 | 59 | 0.9 |
| Diff | -0.50 | -6.4 | 0.0 | -5.6 | -0.8 | -0.4 | -0.7 | 4 | -9 | -0.6 |
| SD% | 0.82 | -0.05 | -0.95 | 1.24 | -0.64 | 0.16 | 0.33 | -0.45 | -0.03 | -0.24 |
| Name | Val | Pts | 3pt | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | Fg% | Ft% | To |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Kessler | -0.32 | 7.5 | 0.2 | 6.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 54 | 63 | 1 |
| 2022-23 Stats | 0.03 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 8.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 72 | 52 | 0.8 |
| Diff | 0.35 | 1.7 | -0.2 | 2.0 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 0.9 | 18 | -11 | -0.2 |
| SD% | 0.28 | -0.75 | -0.82 | -0.20 | -0.90 | -0.29 | 0.83 | 1.46 | 0.17 | -0.75 |
The percentages highlighted in red represent the stats that I missed on and that were greater than the standard deviation. The closer the percentage is to 100, the greatest my miss, whereas negative percentages indicate that I succeeded in the prediction. If you see a “-100%”, you are legally obligated to buy me an authentic Rondae Hollis Jefferson jersey, not a Brooklyn or a Toronto one but obviously with the nation of Jordan, and send it to my last known address, as this indicates a bullseye prediction with no error. To make this more readable I only included in the above array the “missed” players, but I can assure you I did the exact same procedure for the remaining 144 players that were classified as “hits”. Some players that stand out from the misses are:
Giannis Antetokounmpo: I was fooled by Giannis’ 21-22 season and expected similar output in stocks and a further improvement in his ft%. Unfortunately, despite increasing his scoring, all the other categories suffered, but I expect a small upwards correction next season, especially regarding his ft%.
Robert Williams: Injuries prevented the breakout season I was expecting from Williams and his decreased defensive stats really hurt his value. The Porzingis acquisition makes his situation a tricky one for next season as well.
Shai Gilgeous: Despite projecting some improvements for Shai, I didn’t predict the rapid increase his stats had last season, particularly in the scoring and defensive department. A fantasy league winner last season for managers that drafted him at a discount.
Lauri Markkanen: I might have been one of the more optimistic analysts regarding Lauri last season during the preseason and even that optimism wasn’t enough, as he finished top20 in per game value.
Jalen Smith: Never again…
Brook Lopez – Nicolas Claxton: 2 big men that skyrocketed their value based on elite performance in the blocks department. I would be cautious to draft Lopez in a similar position as his blocks are bound to decrease from a career high 2.5 at age 36, but Claxton seems primed for a similarly productive season.
Walker Kessler: My projection (54%) for his fg (72%) might be my worst miss in terms of percentage ever. Kessler didn’t play as a rookie last season when it comes to finishing at and protecting the rim and will be a popular target in fantasy drafts.
Conclusions
The whole process concludes with the calculation of the absolute mean difference in value between my projection and the actual stats of the 2020-21 season. As a reminder, the smaller this number, the more accurate the projections. This number by itself does not mean much, but it can be used as a comparison with the accuracy of my projections from the previous years. For reference, this number was 0.156 in 2018, 0.16 in 2019, 0.162 in 2020, 0.149 in 2021 and 0.155 in 2022.
For this year, the number is 0.133, indicating that the 2022-23 projections were my personal best in terms of accuracy since I started imposing this mental torture upon myself. I can say I’m quite pleased with this and what I identified as a key difference is that I am progressively a lot more reserved with rookies as the years go by and I also take more into account the stats from the latter half of the previous season, as some players start to improve then and continue that trend as the new season rolls in.
Thank you for making it all the way to the end and let me know if you have any questions regarding the process used or any other offseason fantasy questions in the comments below!
I hope to have my yearly top 155 Roto projections ready in the coming weeks so stay tuned!
