The Numbers Game – Trades, Waives, And …

… A Long Ass post trade deadline analysis (couldn’t come up with a word that rhymes with automobiles).  I’ll dive deep into a couple of trades (Boogie and Nerlens Noel).  I’ll also cover the much hyped but somewhat boring (thanks to Boston, Indiana & Chicago!) trade deadline that has come and gone.

Oh and by the way, if you’d rather just listen to an analysis instead of read and see some copy/pasted stats from NBA.COM,  just go ahead and listen to JB’s podcast.

Trades with likely limited fantasy implications:

HOU trades K.J. McDaniels to BKN (for I don’t even know who… likely just for cash considerations)

HOU trades Tyler Ennis to LAL for Marcelo Huertas.  HOU will waive Huertas.

ATL trades Mike Scott to PHO for cash

MIL trades Roy Hibbert to DEN for a protected 2nd rd. pick

TOR trades Jared Sullinger + two  2nd rd. picks to PHO for P.J. Tucker (more real life relevance on this trade–sidenote, love the moves TOR has made going into the trade deadline)

BKN trades Bojan Bogdanovic + Chris McCullough to WAS for Andrew Nicholson, Marcus Thornton (waived) and a lottery protected 2017 1st rd pick

– So there likely isn’t any fantasy implications for the players involved but might want to keep an eye out for the SG/SF position players for BKN.  Jeremy Lin is set to return soon so his minutes will be coming from someone but keep an eye out on Caris LeVert.  Although, I am leaning towards Coach Asshatkinson to keep their existing minutes the way they are +/- a couple of minutes bump.

Trades with some fantasy implications or at the very least should have managers play a wait and see approach to teams and players involved:

OKC gets Taj Gibson, Doug McDermott (McBuckets!!!) and a 2018 2nd rd. pick, CHI gets Anthony Morrow, Cameron Payne, Joffrey Lauvergne

     Analysis:

OKC side – In standard leagues, Taj Gibson is likely owned.  If not, I’d look to grab him even with Enes Kanter set to come back.  The no-nonsense and hardworking way he plays should fit really well with Russell Westbrook. He also gives Westbrook another player to kick out to that can make an easy layup (or shoot a short range jumper) and along with Big Boy Steven Adams, will crash the boards.  The biggest risk for Gibson will be playing time but I think he plays enough minutes to be a hold.  OKC badly needs shooters so while I think McBuckets will find a nice role in real life. Just the threat of an outside shooter will make Westbrook even more dangerous (case in point, Da Beard James Harden).  I expect him to play enough minutes to be a 3 pt specialist.  Think Kyle Korver but likely less of those occasional blks and stls but maybe tad more rebs.  So only Semaj Christon as the backup PG huh?  Unless OKC goes the route of signing a 3rd string PG, I expect Victor Oladipo to play a lot more combo guard minutes with Payne gone and slide over to the SG when Christon comes in to play PG.  So I think McBuckets plays enough minutes to at least be streamed in standard leagues but ultimately it will depend on whether he gets enough passes going his way.

CHI side – I picked up Payne in one league and I am basically having that buyers’ remorse feeling.  It must have been that MTN (Mountain for us older folks) Dew commercial I’ve been seeing during the All Star break.

In any case, while I think Payne is their PG of the future or at least he will be given all the opportunity to be it (sorry Jerian Grant), Rajon Rondo is still there.  Everyone seems to be quickly grabbing Bobby Portis and I think that’s okay if your dropping some dead weight at the end of your bench.  I’m just not sure if he overtakes Nikola Mirotic (or even Monsieur Lauvergne) on the depth chart for Da Bulls.

Trades with fantasy implications:

   Analysis:

ATL trades Tiago Splitter + 2nd rd pick + swap rights for another 2nd rd pick to PHI for Ersan Ilyasova

While I somewhat feel bad for Ghostface who can’t seem to have a team just stick with him, this move just opens up minutes for Dario Saric and Robert Covington.  Not much to analyze here.

PHI sends Nerlens Noel to DAL for Andrew Bogut, Justin Anderson and a top 18 protected 1st rd pick.

DAL side – Noel’s value just shot up.  He will be the starting center on a team that has sorely missed that defensive minded big since Tyson Chandler left.  Well they sorta got one.  Sorta since I think Noel isn’t quite there when it comes to finishing near/around the rim the way Chandler was when he was in DAL.  Nevertheless, Noel to DAL is definitely an upgrade in value compared to him staying in PHI with Jahlil Okafor (stayed pat) and Joel Embiid (being used as an excuse to tank).  I expect Noel to carve out a 27-30 minute role with DAL.  Hopefully, we see more alley oops or easy buckets for him.  Although I see that he has been hitting his hook shots!PHI side – While Bogut is likely going to be waived as I don’t see how he would want to spend the remaining injury filled career of his on a rebuilding team, PHI continues to somehow collect Centers.  Despite the 2 trades, they netted another center in Bogut. Justin Anderson is probably someone to just watch for now.  Their starting options at SG is Gerald Henderson (meh).  Nik “Sauce Castillo” Stauskus will likely continue to come off the bench where he’s performed a lot better.  Okafor can be owned at least for the next  4 games or whenever Embiid is “allowed” to play.  As mentioned earlier, Ilyasova gone gives a big boost to Saric and BobCov.  Having Nerlens out all the more solidifies minutes for those two.

While not being part of a trade, DAL waived Deron Williams (rumor has it that he will sign with CLE).  This means Yogi Ferrell time or at least until J.J. Barea returns.

LAL trades Sweet Lou Williams to HOU for Corey Brewer + 1st rd pick.  Magic Johnson’s 1st move as the new GM of the LAL.  Didn’t take long did it?

LAL side – Jordan Clarkson is the beneficiary here although his per 36s will leave you with wanting more.  I can make the case that Nick Young will also benefit and to a much lesser degree Brandon Ingram.

HOU side – This will take a hit on Sweet Lou’s value.  Going from 6th man of the year contender to joining another 6th man of the year contender that does similar stuff as you is just what it is–dilution.  It’s good for HOU as a team as Harden gets another shooter for a kick out but for fantasy purposes, not good for Williams’ owners.  Similarly, this might take away some opportunities for Eric Gordon as well.  It might take away some playing time from Patrick Beverley but you don’t really have Pbev for scoring or 3s so I don’t think it hurts him at all.

Now onto the post All Star Game “Need to get this done” blockbuster trade

(As of writing this article, NOR and HOU are playing in the 1st quarter)

SAC sends DeMarcus Cousins + Omri Casspi to NOR for Buddy Hield, Tyreke Evans, Langston Galloway + a 2017 1st rd + 2017 2nd rd picks

Heist! Heist I say.  That’s in real life terms.  For fantasy purposes, let’s do away with the easy ones first.  Buddy Hield is probably worth a flier if anything else.  I’m not a believer in his game even though Kings owner think he can develop into a player like Stephen Curry.  I know they smoke ’em stuff out there in Californeeeya but this has to be some potent stuff.  Tyreke Evans, despite still being on a minutes limit, should be able to provide decent stats for the right fantasy team (those wanting a strong FG) as outside of Darren Collison, will have no real scoring threat from the guard position.  Okay maybe I’m underestimating Ben McLemore but in all honesty I really have no clue as to how the SAC players will perform when the opposing defenses won’t have to worry about Boogie. Willie Cauley-Stein will also get a huge bump in minutes with no Boogie but I’m not so sure how he’ll fare against starters in this league.

Onto the NOR side.  Jrue Holiday can expect his usage and scoring opportunities to take a hit.  I’m on the fence on whether his assists numbers will drop hard with Boogie doing more ball handling or Boogie being a black hole when the ball if fed to him near the basket.  I’m leaning yes, but time will tell.  The defensive stats should remain or even get better if he doesn’t have to focus as much on the offensive end.  I still think he will maintain top 50 value ROS barring any injury.  Tyreke and his mid 20 minutes of playing time has to go to someone.  Regardless, I don’t think it’s enough to make any of the NOR options appealing.  Terrence Jones is the odd man out (waived).

Alriiiiight…onto the big question. Boogie and Anthony Davis.  How much of a fantasy hit does each take due to the trade?  My honest answer is hopefully not too much.  I think it’s way too early to speculate and we aren’t sure how this new lineup will perform.  What if because of awesome defensive rebounding that NOR creates additional offensive opportunities? Remember how most said that KD going to GSW would kill Steph and KD’s value? Okay so here’s my own thinking on this (and the caveat is that I own AD in 1 keeper league so forgive me if I end up sounding a little too optimistic)– I think in the early going, AD is going to end up shooting more jumpers and less higher percentage shots.  Remember, Gentry was talking about how AD will be shooting 3s when he first came to coach NOR.  So I expect AD to become more of a stretch 4 (an awesome one) until at least NOR figures out that might not be the best way to go about it.  So AD will likely see a slight decrease in scoring and slightly higher decrease in rebs.  He will take more attempts from long range which will increase his 3s but lead to a decrease in FG%.  FT attempts might increase.  He’s a pretty good FT shooter for his position so that’s a positive. Blks and stls shouldn’t vary much. TOs should decrease.  Onto Boogie. I think if he actually focuses less on the outside shooting, the negatives that will likely come (less out of position assists, less scoring) should be offset by a pretty good FG%.  His rebs and blks should be close to where it’s been.  Steals might even improve.

So the risk really is for AD than it is for Boogie.  What I hope would happen is that when they finally figure out how to play together is that Jrue feeds the ball into Boogie. If no help comes, he scans the defense and either a) uses his awesome low post game to drive to the hoop and on any miss, AD is there for an easy rebound, putback or kick out to an open shooter, or b) have AD find an open lane and gets a pass for an easy 2 (plus 1 maybe?) from Boogie or c) kick back out to Jrue or a wing shooter.

This will take time.  Here are AD’s (top) and Boogie’s (bottom) shooting profile:

AD