On Super Bowl Sunday, it was fitting that Donovan Mitchell was super and had his best game of the season. This is what I wrote for my DFS article for Draftkings on Sunday morning:
Donovan Mitchell, Utah Jazz at Indiana Pacers, $7,900 – Mitchell is the “just right” porridge in the Three Little Bears story – not too hot, not too cold, just right. For slurping porridge, this is a good thing. For daily fantasy, not so much. He’s scored over 40 DKFP 10 times this season with two of those 50-burgers, but he’s gone lower than 40 DKFP 11 times. So why do I consider him a stud today? He garners a usage rate of 30.6% on the season and is hoisting up 18.6 shots per game. This game has a spread of four points, so it should be competitive. In addition, the Pacers boost the fantasy points per minute to shooting guards by 11.99% above league average, the fifth-most generous rate in the league. It wouldn’t surprise me if he notches his third 50-burger of the season.
I get plenty wrong but on this day I was right. He ended up with 57.75 DKFP, a season-high.
On the season, he’s the number 66 player for fantasy on a per-game basis. The shooting efficiency isn’t great (43%) and the blocks are rare, which keeps his overall value down. The rest is pretty, pretty good: 23.5 points, 3.5 tres, 4.4 boards, and 4.9 dimes. I wish the steals were higher than 0.8.
Here’s what else I saw yesterday:
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Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaallmost messed around. For someone as well-rounded as Butler, I was shocked (SHOCKED I tell ya!) that he’s only messed around nine times in his career. That makes me more confident in buying coffee from his barista because there will be no funny business. Not sure I’d be getting what I paid for but it’s just money. I could be dead tomorrow. YOLO.
It’s time to say Adebayo to mediocre fantasy stats because Bam has broken out and is vaulting towards stardom. He’s a top 25 player on the season and could he reach Jokic levels at some point? He could have better defensive stats and the dimes could be on par at some point. He’s not draining tres, though, but that could develop and the points are lacking now. I could see improvement in that area as well. Anyways, the biggest improvement for Bam has been in the free-throw department, as he’s converting 85% of his six attempts. He shot 69% from the line last season. BAM!!!
Got the start and played 31 minutes because Goran Dragic was out with an ankle injury. Avery Bradley was also out and is expected to miss a few weeks. Will Kendrick continue starting? Nunn ya business! I kid. It really is an all-or-nothing proposition for Nunn. He either starts and plays over 30 minutes or rides the pine, so much of his short term value will depend on the health of Dragic.
Came off the bench but still played 32 minutes. On the season, Herro is a top 150 player primarily because he doesn’t contribute much of anything in the defensive stats. The 17.1 points, 1.9 tres, six boards, and 3.9 dimes are nice, though.
In 38 minutes of work. Someone on the Twitter machine put it best when he said that Randle would be averaging a trip-dub if others on the Knicks could shoot! Ha! Regardless, he’s dishing out six dimes per game, double what he was posting last season. He’s also increased the tres. Randle just doesn’t contribute the D, making both the ladies and fellas sad. As a result, the top 40 production looks to be the ceiling.
Bullock has started every game he’s been available and produced season-highs in points, tres, and steals yesterday. Reggie! Reggie! Reggie! Get his bust to Canton. Oh, wrong sport. F it. Do it anyway.
Only played 19 minutes because he was ineffective on the offensive end and made a miscue on defense, which caused Thibs to lose it and bench him. Good times. I wouldn’t make too much of it, though, as he had been averaging over 35 minutes a contest.
The big news in the Big Apple was that the Knicks traded for Derrick Rose, reuniting him with Thibs. The transaction package was Dennis Smith Jr. and a 2021 second-round pick. Rose was only averaging 22.8 minutes in Detroit and I wouldn’t expect much more than that in New York. With that said, it’s Thibs. It remains to be seen if this move affects Elfrid Payton of Immanuel Quickley the most, but my hunch is that Quickley gets the biggest downgrade. Thibs is notorious for nothing relying on rookies and he’s raved about Payton’s defense. Shrug.
Got the start and played 23 minutes as Daniel Theis (35 minutes, 12 points, six rebounds, two assists, and one block) came off the bench.
Got the start and played 17 minutes for the injured Jaylen Brown.
Played a team-high 35 minutes but the Suns were too tough, as they won 100-91. I guess Batman does need Robin. The Suns are tough, man, as they are fifth in defensive efficiency and sporting a 13-9 record in the tough Western Conference.
Kemba has been bad this season. He’s outside the top 100 on the season and, over the last five games, he’s outside the top 200. Now, there are some encouraging signs. He’s played over 32 minutes the last two games and has garnered a usage rate over 30. He’s also hoisted 19 and 20 shots. Remember that he missed a ton of time and has only played nine games so far. Once the efficiency catches up to the volume, it’s on, health permitting.
I am beginning to lose Ayton of faith in Deandre. He’s a top 75 player on the season and has been outside the top 150 the last seven games. The rebounding has been fine and he’s blocking his share of shots, but the usage, shot attempts, and scoring are all down. The Suns play at a slower pace and have so many weapons now that the offensive pie has been divvied up more evenly. This is the same thesis for why Devin Booker’s fantasy value is down.
Speaking of Booker, the shot attempts and points are down from last year as well. So are the dimes, but the 11 dimes yesterday are a beautiful sign. With that said, it’s likely an outlier but something to keep an eye on. Booker is a top 100 player on the season despite garnering a 30 usage rate.
Marvin Bagley III
He has started every game this season but is only averaging 24.9 minutes per game. Over the past seven games, that number has decreased down to 21. All that needs to be written is: #3 pick Luka Doncic, #5 Trae Young. Sigh…..Sorry Kings fans.
Top 35 player on the season. Orale, Holmes! He’s providing points, boards, steals, and blocks with excellent percentages (65% from the field and 79% from the line). That’s huge from a big man.
Practice yo damn free throws, Fox!!! That’s the only thing holding him back from fantasy glory. He’s shooting 68% from the line on the season.
Hield is shooting 37% from the field. Yuck. I guess it makes sense because he’s shooting 37% from downtown and 10.3 of his 13.9 shot attempts come from beyond the arc. Our Buddy isn’t a typical 3-and-D player because, while he gets steals, he also contributes a little something something in boards and dimes. Just don’t expect nine every night. He’s averaging a tick under five on the season.
Someone at Matrix HQ must’ve opened that spam email which in turn threw Leonard off his game. That is the only logical explanation because he’s normally so consistent. Heads will roll tonight!
Batum has started all 24 games this season and been a top 60 player. Not top 600. Top 60!!! The usage is low at 12 and he’s only scoring 10.2 points per game, but he providing 2.2 tres, 4.8 boards, 2.4 dimes, and 1.3 steals while shooting 50% from the field and 84% from the line. Now, over the last five seasons, he’s shot 34%, 44%, 41%, 40%, and 42% so some regression should be expected.
In 27 minutes, only the third time this year he’s received over 25 minutes of run. It’s too bad Zubac doesn’t get more run because he can score, grab boards, and get his Zublocka on while providing excellent percentages.
In 29 minutes off the bench, a season-high. Like Zubac, only the third time he’s played over 25 minutes in a game. Lou has been the opposite of sweet this season. Tart Lou? He’s scored in single digits 13 times and scored at least 20 points three times. Is Lou back? I have my doubts because Paul George has missed the last two games, but something to monitor because we used to call him Sweet Lou for a reason.
Got the start but played eight minutes. This is what I wrote up for Sunday’s DFS slate on Draftkings:
Alex Len, Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets, $4,000 – I have no faith in this play because I have no idea how many minutes Len will play. Since arriving in Washington, D.C., Len played over 10 minutes in five games while receiving single-digits in three. He has received 27 and 24 minutes of playing over the past two games and contributed 24.5 and 37.75 DKFP in the process, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he plays fewer than 10 minutes in this one. Now, the trend is our friend and the matchup is a good one, as the Hornets boost the fantasy points per minute to centers by 10.71% above league average. Len is averaging 1.16 DKFP per minute and seems to be the best option at center for the Wizards, but there is still some uncertainty.
Then I tweeted this on Sunday:
— Son (@Stan_Son) February 7, 2021
F U, Universe.
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaallmmost messed around. Russ needs 30 more to tie Oscar RobertSON for the all-time lead at 181. That’s crazy. LeBron James has 96. On the season, Russ is barely a top 200 player. He’s averaging 4.9 turnovers, shooting 41% from the field, and 65% from the line. The 19.4 points, 9.2 boards, and 9 dimes are nice but very little contributions in the defensive cats.
In 28 minutes. He just DGAF anymore. Bradley Beal Bagel, the new BBB.
In 18 minutes off the bench. He’s now played 18 and 16 minutes the last two games. I blame Rona for all of this. He was a top 60 player last season, averaging 29.3 minutes, 15.4 points, 3.7 tres, and 4.5 boards. F#@! you, Rona.
Top 25 player on the season. After Adam Morrison was unable to be the Great White Hope for Michael Jordan, it looks like MJ got it right this time. And he has nice hair.
Only played 20 minutes because of foul trouble and the fact that the Wizards suck and got smoked, 119-97. It took some time for Zeller to get ramped up after returning from injury, but when he did, he played 34 and 39 minutes. Since then, the minutes have come back down to the low-20s. Over the last three seasons, Zeller has averaged in the low-to-mid 20s. Zeller isn’t an exciting option but he’s a viable fantasy option. He’s posting top 100 value and provides boards, some dimes, and a little defensive stats while shooting well from both the field and line.
Made his fourth start in a row, as injuries have struck the Hornets backcourt, but I find it hard to believe that the genie can be put back into the bottle. Beware the wrath of Lavar!!!! In four starts, Ball has averaged 34.9 minutes, 22.3 points, three tres, 5.8 boards, 5.8 dimes, and 1.3 steals while shooting 45% from the field and 92% from the line on 3.5 attempts. On the season, he’s shooting 79% from the line. Chino Hills in the house!
Dare I say that Terry is no longer scary to your percentages? He’s shooting 47% from the field on the season and is converting over 50% over the last week or so. The prior five seasons, 42%, 38%, 39%, 36%, and 27%. As a result, he’s a top 45 player on the season.
In 31 minutes off the bench. Over the last three games, Bridges has played 31, 16, and 32 minutes. Prior to that, the range was 25-29 minutes. He’s been benefiting from injuries so not sure this is the New World Order. If you think it is, then I’ve got a Bridges to sell you. Wait, that doesn’t quite work out, huh? I guess you’ve got a Bridges to see me then. I ain’t buying!!!
Boards, blocks, and butchering your free throw percentage: the Gobert Special.
After opening the season with 16 straight dub-dubs, Sabonis has now gone two games without. I’m shaking like Pookie after missing the glass d#@k for a few days. It puts the 53 consecutive dub-dub streak by Kevin Love into perspective. Love hurts but can produce spectacular things. The blemishes for Sabonis are the lack of defensive stats and poor free throw shooting. As a result, it will be tough to crack the top 50.
In 32 minutes off the bench. Over the last three games, McDermott has played 29, 33, and 32 minutes and has scored double figures in each. He won’t provide defensive stats or dish out dimes, but he will drain tres and grab some boards.