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With the top 20 and top 10 for 2010 fantasy basketball in the can, and the top 20 point guards for 2010 fantasy basketball out of the way, it’s time to turn our attention to the spunkier, freewheeling-er set of guards: the rootin’, tootin’ top 20 shooting guards for 2010 fantasy basketball.

As has been the pattern so far, these rankings are for 9-cat roto leagues. You H2Hers, go ahead and help yourself to the cheese and cracker plate I set in the rear of the room. I’ll get to you guys before too long.

I’ve listed 2010 projections and tiers below.

Here are the top 20 shooting guards for 2010 fantasy basketball:

1. Kobe Bryant – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy basketball post for Kobe Bryant’s projections.

2. Dwyane Wade – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy basketball post for Dwyane Wade’s projections.

3. Tyreke Evans – I’m a little bearish on Evans heading into his sophomore season, but not really for the reasons I should be, namely his three-point shooting, free throw shooting and turnovers. I’m worried about Evans like a guy wondering why the hot chick he’s on a date with is still single. She’s got a nipple in the wrong place, maybe? Her snores draw in strays from nearby alleyways, perhaps? She’s hiding something behind her fanny pack? What’s she hiding, Adam? Who knows! You see my point?  She’s beautiful and kind and voluntarily sitting in front of you, so something horrible is just around the corner. Tyreke Evans was cut from Team USA, will be a hybrid guard, sharing PG duties with Beno Udrih, drives fast cars fastly, but not fast enough to escape getting caught, probably has a nipple in the wrong place and I can’t shake the feeling that a repeat of last year’s ROY campaign ain’t in the cards, nor is much of an improvement. Ah what the hell?
Season Projections: .473/.779/1 3pt/22 pts/4.5 rbd/5.5 ast/2 stl/0.5 blk/2.5 tov

4. Joe Johnson – This begins the second tier called “You Wanted A Top SG – Well, Here You Go, But Don’t Go Reaching.” It ends at Jackson. I don’t get positive vibes from the Hawks this year. The team’s aura is all brown-ish, with flecks of yellow. Of course I look directly into the sun before consulting team auras, so perhaps my readings are caused by charred rods and cones. Still wouldn’t be as bad as the dough burned on team centerpiece Joe Johnson’s new contract. For that kind of money on a borderline all-star, he better be playing his position and Mike Bibby’s too.
Season Projections: .440/.810/1.5 3pt/22 pts/4.5 rbd/4.5 ast/1 stl/0 blk/2 tov

5. Jason Richardson – The Suns won’t have Barbosa or Stoudemire, but as long as they have Nash, this team is going to run and score in droves. Turkoglu and Josh Childress might have a little fun with that this season, but it’s more than likely that Richardson is in for a career-year as the team’s primary scorer.
Season Projections: .444/.715/2.5 3pt/23 pts/5.5 rbd/3 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/2.5 tov

6. Stephen Jackson – The intriguing thing here is whether or not Jackson earns more assists during the D.J. Augustin Era in Charlotte than he did while Ray Felton was taking it up the court. Jax averaged almost six assists in ’08 and 4.2 in ’06. That eye twitch you just developed? That’s intrigue.
Season Projections: .419/.800/1.5 3pt/22 pts/5 rbd/4.5 ast/1.5 stl/0.5 blk/3 tov

7. Brandon Roy – This is a new tier: “Injury-Prone Lads Who Will Rock Your Team For 62-75 Games This Season.” It ends at Arenas. 57, 74, 78, and 65. Are those the years of Elizabeth Taylor’s marriages? Nope. Are those the weights of your elementary school girlfriends? Don’t be silly, I never had any of those … yet. Your four best test scores? Now you’re just being mean. Well, what then? They’re the number of games Brandon Roy has played in each of his four seasons in the league. Those numbers – along with Portland’s snail’s pace – are why I’ve felt for two seasons that Roy’s real basketball talent clouded his fantasy basketball output.
Season Projections: .469/.790/1 3ptm/22.5 pts/4 rbd/5.5 ast/1 stl/0 blk/2 tov

8. Manu Ginobili – I wouldn’t eat your lunch for choosing Manu four SGs sooner or three SGs later, not with his injury history. I would, however, eat your lunch if I was hungry and you got up to go to the bathroom. Don’t look at me like that, you shouldn’t have left sandwich sitting there knowing how much I love it! Ginobili has definitely lost a step in the last two seasons, but when you’re three steps ahead of everyone to begin with, t’aint no thang.
Season Projections: .444/.865/2 3pt/15.5 pts/4.5 rbd/4.5 ast/1.5 stl/0.5 blk/2.5 tov

9. Kevin Martin – Speed Racer is going to play 65-70 games this season. Don’t argue, it’s true – look at the tier he’s in! I know you want it to be one way, Marlow, but it’s the other way. Your job for your draft is to decide whether what he’ll output in 70-ish games will be better than what the next guy will produce in perhaps more outings.
Season Projections: .425/.857/2.5 3pt/25 pts/4.5 rbd/2.5 ast/2 stl/0 blk/1.5 tov/

10. Monta Ellis – Golden State may be sporting the best new(ish) uniforms this season, but the uniform is just about the only new facet to Monta’s game this season. Unless Corey Maggette’s absence somehow counts as a new facet to Ellis’ game – which it shouldn’t, but probably will. You can’t assume he’ll stay healthy, can’t assume he’ll average 41 minutes a game again, can’t assume he’ll take fewer bad shots and more smart ones, can’t assume he’ll be fine handing over the reins to Stephen Curry or David Lee and you can’t ass Hume. Hume hates being assed.
Season Projections: .458/.770/0.5 3pt/21 pts/4.5 rbd/5 ast/2 stl/0 blk/ 3 tov

11. Gilbert Arenas – I already covered Gil as a 2010 Fantasy Sleeper. It’s a bit silly that a guy ranked this high needs to be defended. But he was and he did, so I did.
Season Prediction: .425/.745/2.5 3ptm/19 pts/5 rbd/4.5 ast/1 stl/0 blk/2.5 tov

12. Eric Gordon – This tier starts at Gordon, ends at Crawford and is called “Betcha Wish You Picked One Of The SGs From The Last Tier Instead of Zach Randolph, Huh?” As chinstrap beards go, Gordon’s is just the worst. Totally wrong for his head shape. As Michael Kors would pretentiously say, “My God, he looks like an urban garden gnome wearing an invisible crash helmet.” Still though, he’s the best Gordon on this list …
Season Projections: .450/800/2 3pt/19 pts/2.5 rbd/3.5 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/2.5 tov

13. Ben Gordon –  … Sweet Segway. Thanks, bro. No. Sweet Segway. Oh. We now move from Eric Gordon to Err Gordon, whom we last saw racing GMC for the most thundering collapse in Detroit  history. I’m pretty sure Despair Gordon won that race too – and that’s comin’ from a guy whose Buick Enclave asploded into a ball of fire at the Farmer’s Market last week! All Gordon does is score, but last season he missed 6.5 of every 11 shots he took, 20 of the 82 games Detroit played and didn’t actually score all that much (13.8 ppg in ’09 as compared to 20.7 a season earlier). Now for the good news … psyche your mind! I’ve got s’more bad news. Fair Gordon skipped this summer’s World Championships with Great Britain because his ankle surgery isn’t progressing as he hoped. I’m guessing he hoped it progressed quickly and it’s progressing less-than-quickly. Okay, NOW for the good news: When a player dips in every major category (and I mean every damn category) one season, dollars to donuts says he’ll bounce back at least a little the next. He’ll be back to scoring the roundball or his name isn’t Square Gordon.
Season Projections: .434/.880/2 3pt/18.5 pts/3 rbd/3 ast/1 stl/0 blk/2 tov

14. Ray Allen – Just a reminder: Ray Allen is the oldest guy on this list. He also had the second-lowest 3p% and PPG average of his career last season. Jrue story.
Season Projections: .465/.920/2 3pt/15 pts/3.5 rbd/3.5 ast/0.5 stl/0 blk/1.5 tov

15. Jamal Crawford - The fall of Bibby, mixed with the development of Jeff Teague will have Crawford playing the point alongside Johnson more often than last year. Not a lot, but enough to shift most of his stats appropriately.
Season Projections: .437/.850/2 3pt/19 pts/2.5 rbd/3 ast/1 stl/0 blk/2 tov

16. Rodrigue Beaubois – This tier starts here and ends at Thornton. I call it the “One Of These Two Guys Might Be A Top 10 SG By Year’s End, I Just Don’t Know Which One.” Beaubois’ name loosely translates to “Rod Goodwood.” And because it’s not Rodrigue Beaubalsa, I’ll take his name as an omen of good things to come on the hardwood. Beaubois will eventually be the future of Dallas point guarding, but it appears that this year, he’ll be splitting time as starting two-guard and Jason Kidd’s back-up. Fine. Good. He’s desperately needed in Dallas’ system of players oversized in their position and enamored with jumpshots. Why? Because Robobeaubo is neither of those things. He’s a slashing guard who will get to the rim and the line. He’s the Corey Maggette that Dallas got since they didn’t get Corey Maggette. And you watch, assuming Mr. Miyagi does his mystical hand-rub and fixes Beaubois’ injured foot in the next four weeks, it’ll be the best move the Mavericks didn’t make.
Season Projections: .490/.810/2 3ptm/17 pts/3.5 rbd/3.5 ast/1.5 stl/0.5 blk/2.5 tov

17. Marcus Thornton – There’s two ways to look at Marcus Thornton. You can view him as a straight-scorer that only fills up half the stat sheet and won’t deserve a look within the first 80 picks of any draft. Or you can view him as a sophomore who put up comparable per36 numbers in his rookie season to what both Rip Hamilton and Ben Gordon have averaged in their careers. Before you finalize how you plan to view him, remember: there’s no difference between good flan and bad flan. Flan is flan.
Season Prediction: .462/.819/2 3pt/16.5 pts/3.5 rbd/2 ast/1 stl/o blk/1 tov

18. O.J. Mayo – This next tier goes past this list and is called “This Better Not Be Your Best SG.” Every statistic mirrored Mayo rookie output. His lack of growth was as good as a step back last season. I expect an actual step back this season.
Season Projections: .445/.895/1.5 3pt/17 pts/4 rbd/3 ast/1.5 stl/0 blk/2.5 tov

19. John Salmons – I’m not big on Salmons’ game. Not big on his age. Not big on his place on this suddenly overcrowded Bucks team. Not big on that Marcellus Wallace scar on the back of his head (that’s where they removed his soul!), and I’m not big on his pre-All-Star Game output in the last two years. Combining his pre-All-Star break he averages from those two seasons, he averaged .449/.809 and 15.6 points per game. After the break, he’s averaged .471/.858 and 19 ppg. In both cases he moved from a team that no longer wanted him to a team that did and Salmons responded accordingly, but I wonder now how much the Bucks will want him come February.
Season Projections: .460/.815/1 3pt/16 pts/3 rbd/3 ast/1 stl/0 blk/2 tov

20. Jason Terry – Don’t draft Jason Terry. He’s boring. Honestly, besides maybe Beaubois, there’s no one interesting on the Mavs. If you have a Maverick on your team whom isn’t French, he’s boring up your team something awful. Pick one or two of the first 19 guys on this list or take a flyer in later rounds on someone with tons more upside like Evan Turner or Anthony Morrow or someone. Jason Terry as your 9-10 pick? No one wants that.
Season Projections: .449/.860/1.5 3pt/14.5 pts/2 rbd/3.5 ast/1 stl/0 blk/1 tov

11 Responses

  1. ETMcgee says:
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    do you have something against the mavs? You are low on kidd in the PG ranks, low on JTerry (even though he consistently outperforms his ADP and will end up more valuable than most of the list above him), seems like you might have a anti-mav theme going (outside of roddyb). JET is a boring guy to own, i’ll give you that, but his roto track record speaks for itself.

    I would also put BRoy ahead of tyreke and company. while his injuries aren’t negligible, playing 74 and 78 games is essentially a full season. His roto value beats those listed above him due to low TOs and consistent across the board contribution. Those other guys will bury you in bad FG% and high TOs. I think tyreke averaging a 3/game and getting 2 steals is a looking through some rosy glasses, though he is the one of those guys who has a chance to return value at/above BRoy.

    Now I am a blazers fan, so that me skew my viewpoint, but i’d rather have the best player on a really good team than the best player (though inferior to Roy) on a mediocre or bad team (kings, bobcats, suns, hawks, etc).

  2. Adam

    Adam says:
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    @ETMcgee: No, nothing against the Mavericks, I just don’t think they’re moving forward as much as they’re moving laterally.

    If I’m down on Kidd and Terry, it’s because I’m up on (is it possible to be “up” on someone?) Robo Beaubois and he’ll almost certainly nab significant minutes from both guards.

    You do bring up an interesting question: would you rather have the best player on a good team or a bad one? I’m not positive I’d want the player on the good team, though I guess it would depend on the players and the teams.

    I immediately think back to past years near the end of the season where playoff-bound teams rest their best players for entire games, or entire quarters on a regular basis. Then again, if a team is consistently getting blown out and frustrated, that’s not good for a player’s stats either.

  3. anon says:
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    Also with really bad teams, you need to worry about them shutting down their stars with injuries that they’d play thru if their teams were in contention so that they can tank for lottery positioning. This is always a concern with guys like Granger, Harris, and before he went to Houston, Kevin Martin.

    I say you want guys who will be on teams that have something to play for for the entire season.

  4. Adam

    Adam says:
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    @anon: I agree that players on bad teams risk getting shut down early (although I’m not convinced “lottery tanking” is all that common), but thinking back to LeBron last year or Shaq in seemingly each of the last five, good players on winning teams are constantly being “saved for the playoffs” at the expense of the last handful of weeks leading up to the postseason.

    LeBron owners in H2H leagues last year know what I’m talking about. How were those fantasy playoffs for you with your No.1 draft pick wearing obnoxious suits on the sidelines?

  5. jeffjam says:
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    Hi, I just want to ask if you´re going to cover some strategy stuff? Also, if you´re going to focus solely on roto, which seems to be the case, or you´re going to cover h2h as well? I´d appreciate some h2h articles as I play only h2h. I find it to be more fun than roto. The last question, are you going to write daily roundups, as Grey does, once the season starts?

  6. Adam

    Adam says:
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    @jeffjam: Yeah, as we get closer to the start of the season we’ll being posting more draft and in-season strategy stuff and we’ll split the difference between H2H and roto.

    The current crop of lists are geared toward roto, because there’s generally more involved in evaluating a player’s worth for roto. There will be a number of H2H-related lists to follow.

    Re: daily roundups – as Omar Little might say, “Oh indeed.”

  7. anon says:
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    @Adam:

    I pushed hard for all of my leagues to eliminate the last week of the season in H2H leagues, and I’d recommend that everyone make the switch. No one uses week 17 in Fantasy Football for this same reason. It is SO LAME when Marcin Gortat and Jamario Moon are deciding your championship and not Dwight and LeBron in the last week of the season.

    Tanking might not be that common, but I think at a certain point teams encourage their best players to take their time to recover if there is nothing to play for.

    I’m enjoying the posts so far.. The Brandon Jennings Kid ‘n Play comment in the PG list had me dying laughing…

  8. Chris says:
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    Yeah Adam, you’re writing has that humor that Grey has. Everyone loves that stuff.

    Anyways in SG ranking where would Evan Turner be? 24?

  9. Adam

    Adam says:
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    @anon: re: tanking. You’re definitely right about that. re: Jennings. I’m hoping he goes for Office Max’s rubberband man ‘fro in ’10.

    http://www.crownedfox.com/video/stills/officemax_commercial.jpg

    @Chris: Thanks! Yeah, I’d put E.T. somewhere between 23-26 on the SG depth chart. If he ends up 12-14th by years end, it wouldn’t shock me. Nor would him not registering in the top 30. By the 23rd pick in the draft, he’s low risk. I’m just not sure what to make of his role. Lou Williams is good enough to start on half the teams in the league, and Collins has really only said that he wants Brand and Iguodala to be the main focus of the team.

  10. SteveV says:
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    Hey Adam, I play auction leagues and I like to get three SF/SG who over multiple cats. So I target mid-cost guys like Roy, Iggy, J. Johnson, Collison and Ellis for 3 of those spots. I’m starting to worry about Joe J. since the new coach has a move the ball offense and JJ his a 1 on 1 guy. Should I be concerned? And who is a good alternative for mid-cost types?

  11. Adam

    Adam says:
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    @SteveV: I’m a little concerned about Johnson myself, but ultimately Atlanta didn’t sign him to a $116 million contract to install an offense he won’t work in. They’ll get rid of the offense before letting Johnson sink.

    If you can’t shake your nervousness on Johnson, why not aim for Stephen Jackson? You can likely draft him cheaper than the other players you listed. Maybe Deng if you want to go even cheaper.

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