With the top 20 and top 10 for 2010 fantasy basketball in the can, it’s time delve into the top 20 point guards for 2010 fantasy basketball. Grab a croissant and dip it in a seltzer drink, or don’t. I’ve decided to eschew (gazundheit!) all drama and went with the floor generals first. You can’t mess this position up on draft day or else you’re sunk. These guys have the ball in their hand more than 80 percent of the rest of the league and the elite among them often make up for the shortcomings of two or three other players on your team. No other position has as many players that can do that. The average squad in a 9-cat, 12-team roto league needs to average 16 points, 6.3 rbd, 3.5 assists and 1.1 steals per player in order to be in the top three in each of those categories in their league. A top-tier PF averaging 20/11/3/1  is actually a deficit in half those categories (ast, stl) and even the stats the PF is above average in, isn’t enough to cover a second player. Now take Chris Paul’s 19/4/11/2 averages from last year. His scoring makes about the same impact on a lesser-scorer as the PF, covers what is necessary for rebounds (plus 1) and damn near triples what is necessary for assists. This means that with Paul or someone with his output, your team has the freedom to draft two players who only average 0.5 assists between them and still meet your quota.

I’ve listed 2010 projections and tiers below. If you want top 20 lists for the other positions, come back here tomorrow. Or if you can’t wait until tomorrow, just stay here until night turns into morning again. If you don’t fall asleep, it still counts as one long day.

Here are the top 20 point guards for 2010 fantasy basketball:

1. Chris Paul – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy basketball post for Chris Paul’s projections.

2. Deron Williams – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy basketball post for Deron Williams’ projections.

3. Stephen Curry – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy basketball post for Stephen Curry’s projections.

4. Steve Nash – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy basketball post for Steve Nash’s projections.

5. Rajon Rondo – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy basketball post for Rajon Rondo’s projections.

6. Russell Westbrook – People are just a wee bit too high on Westbrook this year. The improvements that OKC needs to make must come from the bench and the center position. Unfortunately for Westbrook, Harden is a big part of that bench and if they want him to develop, that’s coming out of Westbrook’s pockets.
Season Projections: .440/.785/0.5 3pt/17 pts/5 rbd/7.5 ast/1.5 stl/0.5 blk/3 tov

7. Derrick Rose – In the first 20 minutes of “Gremlins” a half-dozen people lay eyes on Gizmo – a creature that doesn’t even come close to resembling any other animal anyone has ever seen before. Nevertheless, everyone decides Gizmo is vaguely adorable and are genuinely unconcerned with what the hell it actually is and whether or not it was poisonous or rabid or diseased or any of the million feelings normal people in this situation would have felt. This failure for the film’s human characters to have any reaction remotely attached to the kind they should be having reminds me a lot of how fantasy owners are treating Rose so far in mock drafts. I’m seeing him drop as low as 55. Fifty-five! Why are you petting that thing? And why are you letting Rose drop to 55? Rose is healthy, captaining a better team and hitting that magical third year.
Season Projections: .480/.797/0.5 3pt/21.5 pts/3 rbd/7 ast/1 stl/0 blk/3 tov

8. Darren Collison – I said this about DarCo back in June: “… Darren Collison is good. Extremely good. Better than anyone expected when the Hornets drafted him 21st in the ’09 draft. He was widely considered among the five best rookies of last season and I can even make the argument that he belongs in the top three.” For the record, I eventually made that argument and forced a little girl to tears in the process. Not my finest hour. Not my worst either. Indiana is my dark horse pick for the final playoff slot in the East. Roy Hibbert is nice ‘n’ all, but whether the Pacers make it that far will rely on what this kid can do.
Season Projections: .460/.845/1.5 3pt/17 pts/4 rbd/8 ast/2 stl/0 blk/3 tov

9. Jason Kidd – Time keeps on slippin’, slippin’, slippin’ into the future. If Kidd’s game doesn’t slip right along with it this season amidst the development of Roddy Boisboisbois and Kidd turning 72, I’ll quit my job and become Jason Kidd’s kid’s mustache trimmer.
Season Projections: .435/.815/1.5 3pt/8 pts/5 rbd/8.5 ast/1.5 stl/0 blk/2 tov

10. Baron Davis – I’m kinda hoping Baron Von Davis does something crazy to start the season like shave off his beard. Just shave it the eff off. People wouldn’t even know it was him. Hey, who’s that guy with the bubble-butt and duck feet? I dunno, but he sure likes chucking threes with 18 seconds left on the shot clock. Whoa, it’s Baron, bro! No! Yo! Oh. Whoa!
Season Projections: .409/.795/1 3pt/20 pts/3 rbd/8.5 ast/2 stl/0.5 blk/3 tov

11. Chauncey Billups – Chauncey Billups always sounded like the name of someone who couldn’t possibly be younger than 70. Someone who wears driving gloves and carries an umbrella everywhere. This year, I fully expect Denver’s PG to play down to his name. Death may not be breathing down Billups’ neck, but Ty Lawson, and George Karl’s health, and Carmelo’s contract are. This is going to be a very trying year for ol’ Chauncey.
Season Projections: .425/.901/1.5 3pt/17 pts/3 rbd/5 ast/1 stl/0 blk/2 tov

12. Mo Williams – Make no mistake, Mo can shoot the lights out of a gym. Unfortunately, with LeBron gone, cloaking himself in a darkened gym may be the only way to hide the fact that he’s more comfortable receiving the ball for a three, than he is distributing it and you don’t want a shoot-first PG until the middle rounds. Look at the first five names on this list. Go ahead, I’ll wait. Mo won’t go there, ’til Mo doles mo’ dimes to teammates. For better or for worse (it’ll be for worse), he’s going to be the main guy in Cleveland (oh, so worse). Antawn Jamison may amass better stats, but the Cavs are now Mo Williams’ team (worse, so very, very worse). If there was a time last season the holes in Mo’s game most revealed themselves, it was when LeBron wasn’t on the floor. Williams pressed. A lot. If a guy cracks under the pressure of LeBron James leaving the floor, what’s happens now that LeBron James left the state? Also, he’s missed at least 13 games in three of the last four seasons.
Season Projections: .439/.880/2.5 3pt/21 pts/3 rbd/6.5 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/3 tov

13. Aaron Brooks – April Adam promised that October Adam wouldn’t miss the boat on Aaron Brooks again. Here: I missed the boat on Brooks early in the season. Maybe I imagined Yao limping onto the court like Willis Reed in December to take all the offense away from Brooks. Or Tracy McGrady limping onto the court like Yao in January. Or I clairvoyantly imagined Kevin Martin limping onto the court from Sacramento in February. I dunno. Expect me to give this guy his due next season.” I present to you, dear reader, his due.
Season Projections: .455/.840/2 3pt/18.5 pts/3 rbd/6 ast/1 stl/0 blk/2.5 tov

14. Jameer Nelson – Of all the names on this list, Nelson seems to have to work hardest for his stats. It doesn’t look easy out there for him and why would it be? In seven seasons he’s missed at least 15 games three times. This may be part of the reason he’s undervalued. He’s like the housewife who spent all day cleaning and preparing for company, only to have her husband take all the credit for keeping such a lovely home. Yes, in this metaphor Howard and Nelson are married.
Season Projections: .450/.850/1.5 3pt/14.5 pts/3 rbd/6 ast/1.5 stl/0 blk/2.5 tov

15. John Wall – Wall is for real, but so is all the mishigas still wafting around D.C. Will Gil fit at SG? What’s Hinrich gonna do? Why was John Wall missing so many shots in the summer league? How do you pronounce “JaVale?” I prefer “ya-valet.”
Season Prediction: .444/.777/1 3ptm/16 pts/4.5 rbd/6 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/3.5 tov

16. Brandon Jennings – Jennings’ USG% was probably too high for his own good (26.1) and it forced him to do things no professional basketball player should do if they want to remain a professional basketball player. Namely, change his hairstyle from one member of Kid ‘n’ Play to the other and back again while shooting .371 from the floor (yes, all damn year and yes, his 3P% was three points higher than his FG%). When you’ve hit your floor, ain’t no place to go but up.
Season Projections: .420/.804/1.5 3pt/16.5 pts/3 rbd/6.5 ast/1.5 stl/0 blk/2.5 tov

17. Devin Harris – He should bounce back from a semi-injured/semi-pouting 2009-10 season, but the impact of that bounce will almost certainly knock him out for a month-and-a-half. You’ve been warned.
Season Projections: .450/.805/1 3pt/18 pts/3 rbd/6.5 ast/1.5 stl/0 blk/3 tov

18. Raymond Felton – On paper, Felton looks like he might help New York just as much as New York’s 8th-ranked pace will help Ray-Ray’s counting stats. His defense is above-average, and his pass-first style will find many ready and willing hands to toss balls at. And for those of you just joining us from Google search: “hands+willing+toss balls at” – welcome. And, I’m sorry.
Season Projections: .440/.775/1 3pt/13 pts/3.5 rbd/6.5 ast/1.5 stl/0 blk/2.5 tov

19. Tony Parker – Parker hasn’t missed fewer than 10 games in any of his last three seasons. So for our Razzball readers with gambling problems, Tony Parker is due for an 82-game season, right? Never mind that his defense has slipped every year since 2003. Never mind that after a steady incline in his counting stats over the last seven years, everything dropped off the table in ’09 as he resembled his 22-year-old self instead of his 27-year-old self. And never mind that “never mind” never looks right to me because Nirvana misspelled their album title.
Season Projections: .510/.730/0 3pt/19 pts/3.5 rbd/6 ast/1 stl/0 blk/3 tov

20. Andre Miller – Andre Miller might be the least sexy pick you can have. Honestly, there ain’t nothing spicy about owning this guy. He’s vanilla. He’s hotel art. He’s the color light green. Like a dwarf in a mosh pit, I smell a “but.” But Dre’s 2009 stats don’t really reflect what went down last year. They don’t reflect the three months of growing pains and adjustments necessary to fit into Portland’s slow, efficient system. Which is weird because Miller’s system is, itself, slow and efficient. I guess that’s like two positively-charged magnets coming together. Through December 31 of last season, Miller averaged 27.2 minutes and 11.1 pts/4.4 ast in 34 games. In the remaining 48 games, he averaged 28.8 minutes while heaping on 16 pts/5.3 ast per game. Assuming any one of Portland’s bigs (or anyone on that team besides Miller) can stay healthy for at least 70 games this season, ‘Dre could be a middle-round steal.
Season Projections: .435/.825/0 3pt/15.5 pts/3.5 rbd/6 ast/1.5 stl/0 blk/2.5 tov

  1. Henry says:

    I love it how someone other than me is high on Derrick Rose. The kid is a freak and now is his time to shine. Plus, have you seen his new jump shot? Delicious. When he finally starts hitting 21 footers in chumps faces, he will be unguardable as he drives to the basket. Rd 4 talent this year.

  2. brad says:

    Could you see Jrue breaking through to the top twenty this year?

  3. ETMcgee says:

    Not sure how you can possibly have westbrook as the #6 and Rose as #7 if this is a roto ranking? i think you are a bit too high on westbrook’s FG% prediction (was only in the 41% range last year and worse before that) and aren’t taking into account his massive TOs and lack of 3s. Rose’s lack of 3s (his new jumper doesn’t mean he can now hit 3s with any regularity) and essentially no stl+blk means pretty average roto talent for this year.

    I’d likely take Kidd (his assists/3s/steals aren’t going anywhere, even with RoddyB) and billups and maybe collison before i’d take either of those guys for roto.

    In h2h leagues, westbrook gets a big boost since you can ignore his atrocious FG% and TOs (same with a baron davis type). Rose’s +points contribution doesn’t make me want to waste a 3rd to early 4th round pick on him. Right around pick 50 or so seems about right to me, especially when you can get a tony parker or jameer nelson type PG 4-5 rounds later.

  4. Adam

    Adam says:

    @Henry: Agreed.

    @brad: I can see it. But I can see it more in one or two years than in 2010.

    @ETMcgee: Looks like we have ourselves a good ol’ fashioned glass half full of arsenic/glass half full of Kool-Aid situation with Rose and Westbrook. Bestbrook added 20 ticks to his FG% between 2008 and 2009. I’m predicting he adds another 21 in his junior year. And as far as Rose goes, call me an optimist (or an optometrist, what do I care?), but a third-year captain working on the weak parts of his game all summer strikes me as more promising than again leaders on declining teams.

  5. Henry says:

    Ohhh, I didn’t realise this was Roto. I agree with Mr McGee in that case that there is a little height on this list. I only talk H2H, so that’s where I went wrong.

    Derrick Rose ’10 FTW

  6. Adam

    Adam says:

    @Henry: H2H lists will follow Roto lists in the near future.

  7. Cool list. I was just wondering why you think Harden will hurt Westbrook’s production. Obviously they play different positions so is it because more of the scoring load will go to Harden? If Harden is playing well shouldn’t that help Westbrook. Though he might shoot less his FG% and assists will go up?

  8. Adam

    Adam says:

    @Frank Kim: I don’t think Harden is going to crush Westbrook’s production or anything, but it’s pretty clear that Harden is a capable hybrid guard with some needed development in his future. It’s more believable that Harden will earn more minutes rotating as Westbrook and Sefalosha’s backups than running the second unit with Maynor.

  9. John says:

    Want to know why Rose is there at 55? Because he deserves to be.

    Its tough competing in 3s and Stls when you get nothing in either category from one of your point guards.

    You project him at .5 threes a game. Which would more than double what he has done in his first 2 years playing 37 minutes a game. It could happen, but its a bold projection.

    Also, in Rose’s rookie year he averaged .8 Steals per game, last year it actually went down to .7, he also didn’t get steals in college. You can’t teach steals, they are based on instinct, an instinct Rose definitely doesn’t have.

    Adding to that, the guy is a career 77% FT shooter.(Another thing he got worse in last year).

    Also, 6 assists from a PG, is nothing special, he is also under 4 boards, meaning he isn’t helping you there either.

    So where exactly does he help you? Pts and FG%. So basically he’s a guard version of Corey Maggette, with worse FTs. Where did you rank Maggette? 66, sounds about right for Rose.

  10. Adam

    Adam says:

    @John: I see your point, but I’m not willing to take a player’s first two seasons and project that he won’t improve in his third. Rose made significant improvements to his scoring and FG numbers, declined only slightly in everything else, despite an early-season injury.

    Also important to consider is Rose’s USG%. He was pushed, despite his injury to be involved a ton (27.2% in ’09 as compared to 22.3% a season before), mostly because Ben Gordon was gone and John Salmons game disappeared until February.

    Really, I blame the injury. Look at his month-by-month splits. He averaged 36 mpg/.464/16 pts/3 rbd/5.5 ast in November. By March he was averaging .481/20/3.5/7 in the same mpg. He averaged .540/25.5/4/7 in eight April games.

    Only time will tell, but if it came down to choosing Maggette or Rose with your next pick, you’re really going with Maggette-O’s?

  11. John says:

    I would go Rose over Maggette. I don’t like Maggette in the top 75. I don’t like Rose in the top 60.

  12. SteveV says:

    Am I crazy to take both Collison and Evans in an auction league? Are both of them together too much risk for the upside?

  13. Adam

    Adam says:

    @SteveV: Depends on how much they auctioned for? There really isn’t much risk to speak of with Collison. With Evans it sort of depends on the auction money you plunked down for him. $1 for his upside is a great buy, $25 isn’t.

  14. SteveV says:

    Understand Collison is typically going in Mocks around $17 and Evans for around $30 in a $200 budget. I think that’s way too much for Evans upside and am considering guys like M. Williams for around $11 to $15. But I do like Collisons upside for $17….your thoughts?

  15. Adam

    Adam says:

    @SteveV: Your instincts are correct on this. Unless you believe Evans is going to dominate in his rookie year, you just can’t justify spending 15 percent of your budget on a final round pick. Spend $1-5 on upside, not $30.

    $17 for Collison is about right. Maybe even a buck or two low.

    I don’t care for Mo, but if you can get him for $11 – do it.

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