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The countdown to another fantasy basketball season is officially underway, and as draft day gets closer, it’s time to unveil my top 155 roto projections for the upcoming campaign. Now entering their 10th straight year, these projections are back to help you navigate the fantasy landscape and prepare for another long and hopefully successful season.

As always, note that each player’s value presented is their per-game value, so some players will be higher than the position I would draft them, especially in H2H. Injury risk, games played and personal preference are not included, so use them as a baseline for your drafts, but do rearrange them based on your willingness to risk and team build. A good example of this is Joel Embiid, who I have ranked at no 15, but is obviously a huge risk to miss games due to his injury history. He still will be an excellent per-game player when he plays and this is reflected in his ranking, but we obviously don’t draft him that high. If you are interested in finding out the method used to calculate the player values, check this previous article of mine. Without further ado, let’s check the projections before I mention some notable players that stand out.

 

# Player Value PTS 3PM REB AST STL BLK FG% FGA FT% FTA TOV
1 Nikola Jokić 0.913 27.7 1.6 12.5 10.3 1.3 0.7 57% 17.9 82% 7 3.5
2 Victor Wembanyama 0.788 25.8 2 11.7 3.4 1.1 3 50% 18.2 83% 6.8 2.5
3 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 0.688 30.1 1.8 4.4 6.4 1.4 0.8 53% 19.3 88% 8.9 2.3
4 Luka Dončić 0.496 34.7 4.4 8.2 9.2 1.5 0.4 46% 23.9 78% 10.7 4.3
5 Tyrese Maxey 0.408 24.9 2.9 3.7 5.5 1.7 0.6 47% 18.5 88% 5.2 2.1
6 Kawhi Leonard 0.358 26.2 2.7 3.2 3.4 1.6 0.4 50% 18.8 88% 5.3 1.9
7 Anthony Edwards 0.342 28.6 3.6 5.5 3.8 1.3 0.8 48% 19.7 82% 7.4 2.7
8 Jamal Murray 0.319 24.7 3.1 4.2 6.8 1 0.4 48% 17.9 88% 5 2.2
9 Giannis Antetokounmpo 0.301 31.1 0.5 11.1 7 0.9 0.9 61% 19.1 65% 11.2 3.3
10 Jayson Tatum 0.293 25.7 3.2 8.8 6.1 1.2 0.4 44% 19.8 82% 6.2 2.7
11 Jalen Duren 0.279 20.7 0 10.2 2.3 0.8 0.9 66% 11.9 76% 6.6 2
12 Cade Cunningham 0.277 24.3 2.1 5.3 10.2 1.3 0.8 46% 18.9 83% 5.8 3.5
13 Cooper Flagg 0.276 24 1.3 7.1 5.2 1.2 1 48% 18.7 84% 5.7 2.4
14 Amen Thompson 0.276 19.1 0.4 8.1 4.7 1.5 0.8 55% 13.4 77% 5.1 2.1
15 Joel Embiid 0.268 26.5 1.6 7.4 3.5 0.6 1.1 50% 17.5 87% 8.5 2.7
16 Chet Holmgren 0.265 17.8 1.4 8.6 1.9 0.7 2 54% 11.9 79% 4.5 1.6
17 Karl-Anthony Towns 0.259 20.7 1.2 12.2 3.1 0.9 0.5 51% 14.4 84% 5.7 2.4
18 Jalen Johnson 0.252 22.1 1.5 10 6.9 1.2 0.6 50% 16.8 77% 4.9 3.2
19 Anthony Davis 0.246 20.7 0.6 10.6 3.2 1 1.4 51% 15.9 75% 5.2 1.9
20 Trey Murphy III 0.245 21.1 3.3 5.4 3.4 1.3 0.5 46% 15.5 88% 4 1.7
21 Donovan Mitchell 0.235 24.6 2.9 4.5 4.9 1.4 0.3 47% 18 86% 5.6 2.4
22 Kevin Durant 0.228 25.1 2.3 5.4 4.2 0.8 0.9 52% 17.2 87% 5.6 2.9
23 Austin Reaves 0.197 24.6 2.5 4.7 6.3 1.1 0.3 48% 16.2 87% 7.5 3.1
24 Bam Adebayo 0.192 19.9 2 9.1 3.6 1.2 0.8 46% 14.9 77% 5.5 1.7
25 Scottie Barnes 0.183 17 1 7.6 6.1 1.4 1.3 48% 13.7 80% 3.5 2.7
26 Lauri Markkanen 0.182 23.8 2.6 6.4 2 0.9 0.5 46% 17.8 89% 5.4 1.5
27 Walker Kessler 0.178 12.2 0.5 10.1 1.9 0.7 2.2 66% 7.6 59% 2.8 1.4
28 Domantas Sabonis 0.169 17.3 0.7 12.4 5.4 0.7 0.3 58% 11.8 74% 4 2.6
29 Stephen Curry 0.167 25.1 4.4 3.4 5 1 0.3 45% 18.2 92% 4.7 2.8
30 Kel’el Ware 0.156 12.7 1.5 10.2 1.2 0.9 1.3 52% 9.8 72% 1.4 1.1
31 Donovan Clingan 0.141 12.1 1.3 11.1 1.8 0.6 1.6 53% 8.6 69% 2.4 1.1
32 Tyrese Haliburton 0.137 16.8 2.7 3.3 8.9 1.2 0.5 45% 13.2 85% 2.6 2.2
33 Evan Mobley 0.128 18.3 1.1 9.2 3.2 0.8 1.5 55% 13 66% 4.4 1.9
34 Onyeka Okongwu 0.12 14.9 1.7 8 2.9 1.1 1.1 49% 11.3 76% 2.8 1.5
35 Kyrie Irving 0.118 21.4 2.8 4.2 5 1.1 0.4 46% 16.4 90% 3.9 2.2
36 Josh Giddey 0.114 17.7 2.1 8 9.8 1.1 0.6 45% 13.7 77% 4.3 3.4
37 Michael Porter Jr. 0.105 22.4 3.2 6.7 2.7 0.9 0.4 48% 16.8 84% 3.7 2.2
38 Jarrett Allen 0.099 15.8 0 8.9 1.5 0.9 0.9 64% 9.6 72% 4.9 1.2
39 Dyson Daniels 0.097 12.2 0.6 7 5.6 1.8 0.4 51% 10.4 61% 1.7 1.6
40 Jalen Williams 0.096 20 1.1 5.1 5.2 1.3 0.5 49% 15.5 83% 4.5 2.1
41 Ivica Zubac 0.092 15.9 0 11.2 2 0.4 1 62% 10.9 71% 3.3 1.5
42 Paul George 0.089 18.1 2.8 5.1 4 1.6 0.4 44% 14.8 83% 2.8 1.9
43 Zach Edey 0.085 13.7 0.2 11 1 0.6 1.7 61% 9.2 77% 3 2.1
44 LaMelo Ball 0.085 21.5 4.1 5.3 8 1.3 0.2 41% 18.3 87% 2.7 3.2
45 Brandon Miller 0.074 22.8 3.6 5.1 4 1 0.7 44% 18 88% 3.8 2.6
46 Derrick White 0.07 16.9 3 4.3 5 1 1.1 42% 14 88% 2.4 1.7
47 Desmond Bane 0.07 18.9 2.2 3.9 3.8 1.1 0.5 48% 13.6 90% 4 1.9
48 OG Anunoby 0.06 16.8 2.4 5.1 2.1 1.4 0.7 48% 12.4 82% 3.1 1.7
49 Jaren Jackson Jr. 0.055 19.7 1.7 5.9 2.2 1.1 1.5 48% 15.1 79% 4.4 2.1
50 Alperen Şengün 0.051 19.9 0.6 9.1 5.6 1.1 1 51% 15.3 69% 5.3 2.7
51 Jalen Brunson 0.049 25.1 2.4 3.2 7 0.9 0.1 47% 19.2 84% 5.5 2.5
52 Keyonte George 0.047 21.5 2.3 3.4 6.4 1.2 0.3 46% 15.2 87% 6 2.9
53 James Harden 0.043 19.9 2.8 4.6 7.7 1 0.4 43% 13.8 88% 6 3.3
54 VJ Edgecombe 0.037 13.9 1.8 6 3.4 1.5 0.6 45% 11.7 83% 1.9 1.5
55 Devin Booker 0.034 26.5 2.2 3.8 5.8 0.8 0.2 46% 19 88% 7.8 3
56 Isaiah Hartenstein 0.031 10 0 10 3.7 1.1 0.9 61% 7 64% 2.3 1.7
57 Franz Wagner 0.029 21.9 1.5 5.4 3.7 1 0.3 48% 16.3 84% 5.6 1.9
58 Nickeil Alexander-Walker 0.028 20 3 3.2 3.4 1.2 0.5 46% 15 87% 3.7 2
59 Kon Knueppel 0.02 19.7 3.5 5.5 3.9 0.7 0.3 47% 14.3 85% 3.2 2.1
60 Ty Jerome 0.018 17.3 2.4 3 5.2 1.2 0.3 48% 12.7 87% 3.1 2
61 Dejounte Murray 0.015 17.4 1.7 6.2 7 1.5 0.2 46% 14 84% 3.4 3.2
62 Matas Buzelis 0.014 18.6 2.6 6.3 2.5 0.9 1.4 46% 14.4 80% 3.5 2.3
63 Ausar Thompson 0.011 11.3 0.3 6.1 4 1.9 1 53% 8.7 60% 2.9 1.6
64 LeBron James 0.011 18.5 1.5 5.9 6.3 1 0.6 51% 13.5 76% 4.2 2.7
65 Kristaps Porziņģis 0.005 17.4 1.9 5.9 2.4 0.6 1.2 46% 12.3 84% 5 1.4
66 Jaylen Brown 0.004 24.7 1.9 6.5 3.9 1.1 0.4 48% 18.6 78% 6.3 2.7
67 Ryan Rollins -0.004 16.7 2.3 4.3 5.1 1.4 0.4 48% 13.3 80% 2 2.4
68 Immanuel Quickley -0.005 16 2.7 3.8 5.6 1.1 0.1 44% 12.4 84% 2.8 1.4
69 Neemias Queta -0.006 9.7 0 8 1.5 0.8 1.3 65% 6.3 72% 2.1 1
70 Jaden McDaniels -0.01 15.2 1.5 4.5 2.3 1.1 1.1 50% 11.6 82% 2.6 1.5
71 Tyler Herro -0.01 21.4 2.7 4.4 5.3 0.7 0.2 46% 16.6 90% 3.8 2.3
72 Rudy Gobert -0.013 10.6 0 10.8 1.5 0.8 1.5 67% 6.2 60% 3.8 1.3
73 Alex Sarr -0.013 15.6 1.4 7.1 2.4 0.8 1.8 47% 13.2 69% 2.6 1.5
74 Brandon Ingram -0.015 23.1 2.1 5.4 4.7 0.8 0.6 47% 17.7 83% 5.3 2.7
75 Naz Reid -0.025 15.8 2.4 7.2 2.4 1.1 1 45% 13.3 74% 2 1.9
76 Deni Avdija -0.027 22.1 1.8 7.3 4.4 0.9 0.5 48% 15.1 79% 7.4 2.9
77 Darius Garland -0.029 21.2 3.1 2.6 7 1.1 0.1 47% 16.6 87% 2.9 3.1
78 Derik Queen -0.036 14.2 0.5 8 4.2 1.1 1 49% 10.8 81% 3.8 2.5
79 Mikal Bridges -0.04 13.8 1.7 3.6 3.4 1.1 0.7 49% 11.3 82% 1.2 1.1
80 Jimmy Butler -0.041 15.7 0.5 4.8 4.7 1.1 0.2 49% 10.4 84% 6 1.5
81 Trae Young -0.044 22.2 2.6 2.5 10.4 1 0.1 43% 15.9 85% 7 3.7
82 Pascal Siakam -0.047 20.5 1.5 6.7 3.3 1 0.5 50% 15.8 72% 4.4 2
83 Cason Wallace -0.048 9.8 1.4 3.5 2.8 1.9 0.5 45% 8.3 81% 1.1 1
84 Keegan Murray -0.048 14.9 1.8 6 1.9 1 1.1 44% 13 81% 2 1.1
85 Norman Powell -0.054 22.5 3 3.3 2.2 1 0.2 46% 16 83% 5.7 1.7
86 John Collins -0.057 15.4 1.6 6.2 1.4 0.9 0.8 53% 10.8 79% 3 1.7
87 Collin Murray-Boyles -0.062 11.5 0.4 5.9 2.2 1.1 1.1 59% 7.9 67% 2.6 1.2
88 Jabari Smith Jr. -0.068 16.2 2.4 7 1.6 0.6 1 45% 12.9 80% 2.7 1.3
89 Julius Randle -0.069 22.4 1.6 6.9 5.3 0.9 0.2 47% 16.5 80% 6.6 2.9
90 Jalen Suggs -0.069 14.3 2.2 4 5.3 1.5 0.8 43% 11.8 86% 2.3 2.7
91 Josh Hart -0.07 11.4 1.4 7.2 4.5 1.1 0.3 50% 8.7 74% 1.7 1.8
92 Toumani Camara -0.075 12.9 2.8 5.5 2 1.3 0.5 45% 10 72% 1.5 1.4
93 Cedric Coward -0.079 16.5 1.8 6.3 3.4 0.7 0.5 48% 12.1 84% 3.7 1.9
94 Payton Pritchard -0.081 16.4 2.6 3.7 4.8 0.7 0.1 47% 13.3 87% 1.5 1.3
95 Reed Sheppard -0.087 13.1 2.8 2.6 2.9 1.4 0.7 44% 10.8 82% 1 1.4
96 Paul Reed -0.088 10.1 0.3 5.9 1.6 1.1 1.2 60% 6.7 69% 2.5 1.1
97 Myles Turner -0.089 13.1 2.1 5.8 1.4 0.7 1.6 46% 9.6 76% 2.8 1.3
98 Dylan Harper -0.096 14.6 1.2 4 4.8 1 0.4 52% 11.4 77% 2 1.7
99 Andrew Wiggins -0.098 16 2.1 4.5 2.4 1 0.9 46% 12.8 77% 2.7 1.4
100 Day’Ron Sharpe -0.101 10.9 0.3 8.5 2.5 1.1 0.8 58% 7.5 69% 2.7 1.9
101 Damian Lillard -0.102 19.5 2.8 4 5.6 0.8 0.1 42% 14.8 90% 4.7 2.4
102 Christian Braun -0.106 13.1 1.1 5 2.8 0.9 0.4 53% 9.7 79% 2.2 1.1
103 Robert Williams -0.108 6.9 0.2 7.3 0.9 0.6 1.4 68% 4.5 66% 0.9 0.7
104 Jakob Poeltl -0.11 10.8 0 6.8 1.8 0.8 1 68% 7 62% 2 1.3
105 Cameron Johnson -0.119 13.3 2.2 4 2.6 0.8 0.4 48% 9.5 85% 2.3 1
106 De’Aaron Fox -0.121 17 1.6 3.6 5.8 1.2 0.3 47% 14 78% 2.9 2.2
107 Miles Bridges -0.124 15.9 2 6.4 3 0.6 0.4 46% 12.5 84% 2.9 1.5
108 Tobias Harris -0.124 13.4 1.2 5.5 2.3 0.9 0.4 47% 11 86% 2.2 0.9
109 Ayo Dosunmu -0.128 13.6 1.6 4 3.3 1 0.3 51% 10.3 84% 1.8 1.5
110 Paolo Banchero -0.129 22 1.4 8 5 0.7 0.6 46% 15.7 77% 8 2.9
111 Stephon Castle -0.131 17.5 1.3 5.7 7.8 1.1 0.3 47% 12.6 74% 5.9 2.9
112 Brandin Podziemski -0.141 15 2.1 5.3 4 1.1 0.2 45% 11.4 78% 3.4 1.8
113 Nic Claxton -0.146 12.2 0 7.2 2.7 0.7 1.4 57% 9 60% 3.3 1.2
114 Peyton Watson -0.146 14.8 1.3 5.3 2.3 1 1.1 48% 11.3 72% 3.7 1.5
115 Zach LaVine -0.147 19.7 2.6 3.3 3.1 0.7 0.2 48% 14.4 87% 3.8 2.1
116 Grayson Allen -0.148 14.1 2.9 2.9 3.5 1.1 0.3 43% 10.4 84% 2.7 1.5
117 Devin Vassell -0.153 13.7 2.5 3.9 2.3 1 0.4 45% 10.8 81% 1.8 1.1
118 Collin Gillespie -0.154 11.7 2.6 3.8 4.2 1.1 0.2 43% 9.7 87% 0.9 1.4
119 Zion Williamson -0.155 19.4 0 5.4 3 0.9 0.6 59% 12.2 70% 7.2 1.8
120 Ajay Mitchell -0.156 14.2 1.3 3.5 3.3 1.1 0.3 48% 10.8 86% 3 1.5
121 Aaron Gordon -0.157 15.6 1.6 5.5 2.9 0.5 0.3 51% 10.6 78% 4.1 1.2
122 Egor Dёmin -0.157 13.7 3 3.9 4 1 0.4 41% 10.9 83% 2.1 1.6
123 Tre Jones -0.158 12.6 0.5 2.7 4.4 1 0.2 55% 8.7 84% 3 1.3
124 Sandro Mamukelashvili -0.159 12.6 1.5 5.5 2 0.8 0.5 51% 9.2 74% 2.3 1
125 Dereck Lively II -0.162 7.8 0 7 2 0.6 1.4 66% 5 65% 1.9 1.1
126 Mark Williams -0.169 10.1 0 7.1 0.9 0.6 0.8 63% 6.6 78% 2.3 1
127 Nikola Vučević -0.186 11.2 1.2 6.7 2.4 0.5 0.5 50% 9.1 82% 1.1 1
128 Khaman Maluach -0.186 9.6 0.3 8 0.4 0.4 1.7 54% 7.2 73% 2.1 1.1
129 Moussa Diabaté -0.186 7.2 0 8.4 1.7 0.8 0.9 60% 4.8 65% 2.2 0.9
130 Coby White -0.188 20.5 2.8 4.3 5.3 0.7 0.1 44% 14.6 85% 5.7 3
131 Kyshawn George -0.196 13 2 4.6 3.7 1 0.9 44% 10.5 79% 2.2 2.1
132 Rui Hachimura -0.197 13.5 1.9 5.1 1.3 0.6 0.4 51% 10.1 72% 1.8 0.8
133 Daniel Gafford -0.2 8.8 0 6.5 1 0.7 1.2 67% 5.2 68% 2.7 1
134 Saddiq Bey -0.2 14.6 1.7 4.7 2 0.8 0.2 44% 11.3 84% 3.5 0.8
135 Wendell Carter Jr. -0.201 10.4 0.7 6.9 1.8 0.8 0.6 51% 7.2 77% 3 1.1
136 Jeremiah Fears -0.205 15.6 1.4 3.9 3.7 1.3 0.4 45% 12.8 80% 3.3 2
137 Cameron Boozer -0.206 15 1.4 7.1 3.7 1 0.4 46% 11.8 77% 3.5 2.4
138 CJ McCollum -0.206 19 2.6 3.1 4.4 0.8 0.4 45% 15.7 76% 3 1.9
139 Kevin Porter Jr. -0.207 12.2 0.8 4.2 4.5 1.3 0.3 47% 10.2 84% 2.2 2
140 Ja Morant -0.208 20.5 1.2 3.6 6.7 1 0.3 45% 16.7 85% 5 3.2
141 Jrue Holiday -0.213 13 2.4 4.3 4.4 1 0.1 45% 10.6 85% 1.2 2
142 Tari Eason -0.215 10.2 1.3 6.1 1.3 1.2 0.5 44% 9 79% 1.2 1.1
143 Isaiah Stewart -0.219 10.7 0.6 5.6 1.3 0.4 1.5 55% 7.4 76% 2.6 1.2
144 Kelly Oubre Jr. -0.221 13 1.5 4.3 1.3 1.2 0.4 47% 10.1 76% 2.6 1.1
145 Ace Bailey -0.221 14.1 2.1 4 2 0.9 0.8 45% 12 77% 1.5 1.4
146 Ja’Kobe Walter -0.224 10.2 2.2 3.2 1.6 1.2 0.3 44% 7.5 80% 1.7 0.8
147 Maxime Raynaud -0.225 11.4 0.5 6.4 1.2 0.5 0.5 58% 7.9 80% 2.2 1.1
148 Yaxel Lendeborg -0.226 11.8 1.3 5.9 2.4 1 0.9 46% 9.3 77% 2.5 1.9
149 Oso Ighodaro -0.229 8 0 5.9 3 0.9 0.9 66% 5.5 46% 1.6 1.2
150 Davion Mitchell -0.23 9.9 1.5 2.9 5.6 1.1 0.2 48% 8.1 67% 1 1.5
151 Jaime Jaquez Jr. -0.231 15.8 1 5.2 3.8 0.8 0.3 49% 12.7 76% 3.1 1.8
152 Jalen Smith -0.231 10.6 1.6 6.5 1.1 0.5 0.9 48% 7.9 75% 1.9 1
153 RJ Barrett -0.234 18.7 1.7 5.6 3.1 0.7 0.3 49% 14 71% 4.6 1.8
154 P.J. Washington -0.237 13.4 1.5 6.2 1.7 0.9 0.9 45% 11 70% 2.9 1.4
155 Quentin Grimes -0.238 14.1 1.9 4 2.7 0.9 0.3 46% 10.5 81% 3.1 1.5
156 Malik Monk -0.238 14.8 2.3 2.6 4.5 0.7 0.5 44% 11.8 87% 2.4 1.8

 

Notable Players

Jamal Murray: He just had his best fantasy year, finishing 9th in per game value and Denver will need him to carry all the load he can handle offensively.

Jalen Duren: Don’t shoot the messenger, I just project the stats and the final ranking is calculated by the formula. I don’t think I have projected anything extreme for him, his elite rebounds and more importantly fg% carry him to this spot. Let’s hope the contract controversy will not impact him.

Kel’el Ware: His game is extremely fantasy friendly and despite projecting his minutes to only 25, he still ends up top30. If Milwaykee decide to fully unleash his later in the season, watch out.

Ty Jerome: Top60 would have been laughable some years ago for Jerome, but he is a per minute fantasy monster in a Memphis team with very little playmaking.

Damian Lillard: It’s never smart to bet against Dame, but he is getting older and Portland should ease him back after his injury. He could easily end up the season on a hot streak and help fantasy teams, but I feel his average will be closer to top100.

Zion Williamson: It is looking increasingly likely that Zion will never become the superstar some expected him to be and his fantasy game is on a steady decline, irrespective of his availability issues.

Paolo Banchero: Every year I feel I have to defend his low position in my rankings and every year his per game ranking is just as low, so I will once again caution you for drafting Paolo too early in roto leagues. His points, rebounds and assists don’t make up for his negative percentages and lack of triples and defensive stats.

Ja Morant: Another player with more name value than actual fantasy value, I feel like his limited fantasy profile will be further suppressed with 4 PGs in Portland, so he is one I will be avoiding in drafts.

 

 

 

 

I would love to discuss more with you fine folks about the projections, so feel free to drop a comment below!

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