Hey now, you’re an All-Star! Yes, I’m talking to you. It’s time to pat yourself on the back for a successful DFS season so far. If you were a losing player and now break even, if you were a break even player and are now profiting, if you just absorbed the strategies we’ve talked about and feel like you’ve learned something regardless of your current bankroll, you are succeeding. Yes, it’s nice to win every night but in this game the odds are against us. I trust you have been able to use these strategies to improve your process this season. Tonight is the last slate before All-Star weekend so let’s go into the break with some extra cash in our pockets.

If you’re new to this article, I break down tonight’s five-game NBA slate and give you my starting five for both FanDuel and Draftkings.  These will be my core plays (guys I’ll be playing in my lineups with my money) for hitting the cash line.  Due to all the protocols, injury management, and general rest of players a lot can change from now until tip-off.  Theres a good chance I’ll use a player or two not listed here so make sure to follow me on Twitter for any important player swaps closer to lock.  At the end of the article, I’ll have a pool of three to five players I like that you can use to fill in the rest of your lineups. It’s important to have a process in DFS so let’s review the strategies I use.

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Strategies

  • Focus on teams with high game totals and a high pace of play. On tonight’s slate, Houston and Charlotte run at the fastest and second fastest pace in the league and are both in the bottom five of defensive rating. Using some Miami and LAC players in our lineups should be a priority.
  • Select players who play a lot of minutes, have high usage rates, and/or produce a high FP/M (fantasy points per minute).
  • NBA may be the toughest DFS sport to play for a few reasons. Number one is time. Throughout the season players will get ruled out for rest, injury, or health and safety protocols. This tends to happen shortly before lock or even after lock as we experienced in the past. It’s imperative that you make yourself available for the 15 minutes before lock or you may lose some money for a simple user error.   

OK now that you know the basics, it’s time for tonight’s slam dunks.

Tonight’s five-game slate (totals courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook):

Game MIA @ CHA WAS @ BKN DAL @ NOP PHI @ MIL HOU @ LAC
Time 7:00 PM ET 7:30 PM ET 8:00 PM ET 8:30 PM ET 10:30 PM ET
Total 226.5 215 216 223 229.5

The Starting Five

Giannis Antetokounmpo, SF/PF/C (DK $12100, FD $11500)

We have three studs on tonight’s slate with Giannis being my top spend up over Embiid and Doncic. He’s averaging 1.72 FP/M on the season and just scored 50 real points vs the Pacers last game. The Sixers just lost to the Celtics by 50 points and James Harden isn’t ready to go yet so they will be shorthanded again tonight. The Bucks are currently favored by seven points and Giannis loves playing the Sixers. Over his last 10 games vs. Philly he’s averaging 68.5 fantasy points on DraftKings and 66.3 on FanDuel. I expect my Greek cousin to be the highest scoring player on the slate.

Reggie Jackson, PG, LAC (DK $6800, FD $6700)

Reggie Jackson is facing Houston tonight who runs at the second fastest pace in the league and has the worst defensive rating. In all four games since the trade deadline Jackson has played 33 or more minutes and has recorded at least eight assists.  Norman Powell and Paul George are still out and we are only going to see Jackson’s price rise going forward. You can lock in Jackson for a 35 fantasy-point floor on both sites vs a horrible Houston team.

Kyle Kuzma, SF/PF, WAS (DK $9000, FD $7700)

Kuzma is the real deal this season and Draftkings has let us know by pricing him up to $9K! With no Beal, Kuzma is averaging 42.8 DraftKings points per 36 minutes (1.19 FP/M) and leads the team with a 27.8% usage rate. This is a rematch of last Thursday vs Brooklyn where Kuz put up 48 DraftKings points in 38 minutes. Still no stars for Brooklyn so Kuz should have his way vs a team with no fire power. Cash and GPP play on FanDuel but leaning GPP only on DraftKings because of his high price tag.

Bam Adebayo, PF/C, MIA (DK $8400, FD $9500) 

His price is more digestible on DraftKings but I’ll be using Bam in all my lineups tonight. Charlotte runs at the fastest pace in the league and are the worst at defending versatile big men as we’ve seen centers and power forwards torch them game after game. Back-up center Dwayne Dedmon has missed the last three games and we’ve seen a minutes uptick for Bam in those contests where he played 35, 37, and 33.  In their last meeting on February 5th, Bam stung the hornets for 49.5 DraftKings points in just 27 minutes.

Terance Mann, SG/SF, LAC (DK $5100, FD $5900) 

For the same reasons I like Reggie Jackson, I like Terance Mann. We established that Houston provides an ideal atmosphere for fantasy and Mann is fully equipped to take advantage tonight at a nice price on both sites. Before meeting the best defense in the league in Phoenix, Mann was on a nice run. 36, 28, 37, and 46 DraftKings points in the four games before the Suns. I expect him to get back on track tonight with no one to compete with for minutes.

Other guys on my radar:

  • K. Caldwell-Pope, SG/SF, WAS (DK $4400, FD $4200) 
  • Kyle Lowry, PG, MIA (DK $6600, FD $5600)
  • Ivaca Zubac, C, LAC (DK $4700, FD $6200)
  • James Johnson, SF/PF, BKN (DK $3600, FD $4800)
  • Seth Curry, PG/SG, BKN (DK $5500, FD $6000) 

Before you go, do me a favor and leave a comment or question today. Much appreciated.

– Cousin Timmy

@TimmySperos