Jayson Tatum

Tad

Fantasy Basketball: Run The Numbers – Know Where to Draft Rookies and Sophomores

March 28, 2019 | 2018 Fantasy Basketball, Run the Numbers | 2 Comments

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You’re excited to draft Zion Williamson next fall, aren’t you? Well, here are his per-36 stats that I posted last week:

If you loved The Matrix: Reloaded and P.O.D. as unabashedly as I did 15 years ago–and you definitely didn’t–then this song immediately jumps into your head when gazing upon those numbers, as the chorus goes: “Dreaming of Zion…”

Okay, we know those numbers aren’t happening… at least not for a few seasons (winky face). But even the slight possibility of two-thirds of that production and all the hype around him is enough to get people reaching for him in… I’m guessing the second round? Is that smart? How about Luka Doncic? Seems like he’s bound for a second-round ADP, too. Will that be wise?

Today we’re looking at rookie production once again, as well as that of this season’s sophomores in hopes of remembering how risky it is to gamble on young and/or unproven players regardless of how exciting they may be. My general advice is to stay away. I know, I know. They’re so shiny and full of upside. And if you’re in a keeper/dynasty league, you can sit back and enjoy watching the young players as they improve. But in a redraft league, here’s why you’re better off letting someone else overpay/overdraft rookies.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Son

Fantasy Basketball: Get Smart

March 27, 2019 | 2018 Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Daily Notes | 43 Comments

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I used to enjoy watching Get Smart, a satirical secret agent show. Agent Maxwell Smart is a fumbling, bumbling, stumbling secret agent who always saves the day somehow. One of the catch phrases of the show is “Missed it by that much!” Which would’ve been appropriate to say whenever Marcus Smart jacked up a shot, as he could barely hit the side of a barn in past seasons. This season, though, he’s vastly improved the shooting and is therefore able to put up lines like this:

PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV 3PT FG FT
21 6 4 3 1 1 2/5 8/14 3/3

The 21 points tied a season high! Smart is shooting 42% from the field and 36% from downtown this season. Over his first four seasons in the league, he had never posted a mark better than 37% from the field and 33% from downtown. As a result, while he always provided boards, dimes, and stocks, he was never able to crack the top 100 for fantasy on a per-game basis. This season, he’s a top 85 player and has had streaks where he’s been a top 60 player. Get Smart y’all!

Here’s what else I saw last night:

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Son

Fantasy Basketball: Oh, Kelly O!

March 7, 2019 | 2018 Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Daily Notes | 30 Comments

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O is the most important letter in the alphabet. Without it, we cannot spell food. It is so amazing that it can transform into a number without changing shape, and without 0, a game can never end. Before you saying anything, ties are stupid. Let’s not forget about the Big O, often elusive but well worth the wait. So, is there any wonder why Kelly Olynyk is today’s lede?

PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV 3PT FG FT
22 11 1 2 1 1 5/7 8/14 1/1

Continues to start and played a whopping 45 minutes! Since entering the starting lineup 12 games ago, Kelly O has averaged 26.9 minutes, 13.7 points, 5.2 boards, 2.4 dimes, 0.8 steals, 0.7 blocks, and 1.7 tres. He’s been shooting 52% from the field, 43% from downtown, and 95% on 1.9 attempts from the line. Over the last eight games, though, the minutes have rocketed up to 32.3 minutes and he’s been a top 25 player! Oh, Kelly O! You make me want to bellow and bestow good tidings for providing fantasy inferno. A few weeks ago, I was worried what would happy to Kelly O once James Johnson returned to the mix. I no longer have any worries from that angle. The one concern I do have is will Spoelstra stick with him if the shooting efficiency comes down, because Kelly O is not going to shoot 57% from the field forever. He’s more like a 48% shooter. Until that time, though, enjoy the ride.

Here’s what else I saw last night:

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Son

Fantasy Basketball: Alex Len Gave Us Sunshine This One Time

March 4, 2019 | 2018 Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Daily Notes | 15 Comments

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If you grew up in the 90s, there’s no doubt you heard “Steal My Sunshine” by Len. The radio stations only played it five times every hour for months on end. Remember, this was before iPods, iPhones, Spotify, and XM Radio. It was also a time when MTV and VH1 would actually….you know…play music videos, so the inundation was widespread and impossible to eradicate. The song had a nice summer vibe to it and made one feel happy, but if you dig into the lyrics, it’s about depression…at least in the beginning, but the song is ultimately about overcoming depression and being happy. Well, Alex Len has been a source of depression for fantasy owners for a long, long time. We’ve always been tantalized by the potential but he could never put it together on a consistent basis. Last night, though, it all came together….

PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV 3PT FG FT
28 9 2 0 2 0 5/8 9/18 5/8

…at least for one night, a career-high night in points no less. Now, don’t get gassed because he received his first start since late December, as John Collins and Omari Spellman both did not play due to injury. He did play 36 minutes in the prior game and put up 24/10, but that game went to triple overtime. In addition, both games were against the Bulls. Put your head down in shame Bulls. Anyways, when the Hawks get healthy, Len will return to coming off the bench and receiving fewer than 20 minutes of run, but keep in mind that when injuries strike, Len does have some upside. He has eight dub-dubs on the season.

Here’s what else I saw yesterday:

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Kevin

Fantasy Basketball: Trae-zy

March 2, 2019 | 2018 Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Daily Notes | 1 Comment

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Whether it’s fair or not, Trae Young will always be compared to the future MVP-caliber player Luke Doncic. It’s not his fault that Atlanta made that draft day trade. While there were some seriously shaky runs earlier in the season, Trae has been on fire recently. He is just barely standard league relevant for the season, but over his last three games, he’s clocking in at a fresh #14 ranking in standard 9-cat leagues, averaging 31.7/3.7/8.7 with 4 3’s. He’s also shooting 93.9% on an insane 11 free throws per game. While he may never be at Doncic’s level, he can still make for an elite fantasy player and is showing off at the moment.

Trae Young

FG FT 3PT Points Reb Assists Steals Blocks TO
17/35 9/11 6/13 49 8 16 1 1 9

So close. I was hoping he could get the 50 mark in this one, but this is an otherwise amazing performance. The 49/8/16 is enormous. The efficiency and 6 3’s are killer. In fact, he is the first rookie to go for 45 points and 10 assists since MJ. The 9 turnovers are whack, but that’s the price you pay for playing a mind-boggling 55 minutes. Hopefully they can set him up in the hyperbaric chamber to recover.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Son

Fantasy Basketball: Al B Sure

February 22, 2019 | 2018 Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Daily Notes | 51 Comments

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If you want a guaranteed chuckle, watch this Al B. Sure! video. Ha! Gotta love the late-80s and early-90s. As much as we clown now, though, Al B. Sure! was a star back then. The above song was No. 7 on the Billboard Hot 100 and he was nominated for Grammy and AMA awards. There’s another Al that gets clowned on as well: Al Horford. Why? Click HERE. Ha! Too funny. He also seems to be underrated and underappreciated in the fantasy community. Well, last night he reminded us all why he’s so damn good…

PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV 3PT FG FT
21 17 5 2 3 0 2/6 8/21 3/4

Over the past four games, Horford has been the #6 player in fantasy. On the season, he’s top 25. Many view him as a better real-life player than fantasy asset, yet since 2010, Horford has ended as a top 20 player five times and has never finished below #43 on a per-game basis. Al B Good for Sure!

Here’s what else I saw last night:

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Son

Fantasy Basketball: It’s Good to be Young

February 13, 2019 | 2018 Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Daily Notes | 30 Comments

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Even though Trae Young was selected with the number five overall pick in the 2018 NBA Draft, there were haters and skepticism as to whether he would be able to perform in the League. He’s too small. He turns the ball over too much. He’s going to get abused on defense. All of those things were evident early on. Yet, he showed flashes of why some were infatuated with him. In his third professional game, he scored 35 points and dished out 11 dimes, while turning the ball over only once. Granted, it was against the Cleveland Cavaliers, but that’s a professional team with professional ball players. Hmmm, maybe that’s debatable but they do collect checks for playing basketball so…As the season progressed, there were trials and tribulations mixed in with performances of rapture. Last night was pure bliss.

PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV 3PT FG FT
22 6 14 1 1 6 3/9 6/19 7/9

Yes, the turnovers were high, but he was in total control running the offense last night. The Lakers defense was/is truly offensive, but Young carved them up with expert precision, even nutmegging LeBron James. Most of the hype surrounding Trae was due to his range on his jump shot, but his vision and passing ability are just as lethal. They just didn’t get as much pub. Trae has duds from time to time, but the consistency has been much better than earlier in the season. Hey, he’s still only 20 years old! The mental fortitude, calmness, and development have been impressive to watch. Trae was outside the top 200 for fantasy earlier in the season. Now, he’s just outside the top 100. I didn’t think Trae would be a fantasy asset until next year, but I can see him finishing in the top 100. It’s good to be Young.

Here’s what else I saw last night:

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Son

Fantasy Basketball: Ross – Success For Less

February 8, 2019 | 2018 Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Daily Notes | 77 Comments

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My wife’s favorite store is Ross, as she loves to find a good bargain. I could drop her off, go play some hoops, return, and she’d still be merrily rummaging through the racks. I always clown her, but she does find good deals, so respect. Plus, she enjoys it. I don’t get how she could get so into shopping for clothes, though, but that’s exactly what she says when I spend countless hours on fantasy. We all have our thing. Anyways, last night I asked my wife, “Can you believe that Terrence Ross has been a top 40 player over the past seven games, and he’s only owned in 57% of leagues? What a bargain!” As you can well imagine, no sexy time for me, but at least I derived some satisfaction from the performance Ross exhibited last night.

PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV 3PT FG FT
32 5 1 0 0 1 6/13 13/23 0

In 31 minutes. Despite coming off the bench, over the last seven games, Ross has been averaging 29.4 minutes, 20.3 points, 3.9 tres, 4.9 boards, and 1. He’s had a usage rate of 26 and been jacking up 17 shots per game! The dimes are a paltry 1.3, but what do you expect? Shooters shoot. In fact, back in 2013, Ross produced a 51-burger, so he’s always had the ability to score. Now, there will be bouts of inconsistency, especially from a fantasy persepective, as he is a jump shooter (only 10.6% of his shots come from within 10 feet of the basket) who derives most of his value from scoring. Ross has scored in single digits 12 times this season. With that said, he does get the minutes, shot attempts, and opportunities to produce. And he’s cheap! Nothing beats a good bargain.

Here’s what else I saw last night:

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Son

Fantasy Basketball: (T)obias (H)arris (C)lippers

February 6, 2019 | 2018 Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Daily Notes | 36 Comments

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I used to smoke plenty of trees back in the day. Now, no more smoking at all, as I’m trying to be healthier, but I will still partake in the gummy treats. Regardless of the delivey method, the THC (tetrahydrocannobinol) still gets me nice and toasty, which is what the experience of owning and watching Tobias Harris play this season has been. Last night….

PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV 3PT FG FT
34 7 5 0 0 6 6/7 13/21 2/3

For the season, Harris is a top 25 player. Is he a superstar? That’s debatable, as he doesn’t contribute much in the D cats and the usage is only 25. Most of the superstars have usage rates in the 30s. With that said, he provides 20+ points, 2 tres, 7 boards, and 4 dimes with good percentages. He also hasn’t missed a game this year, despite being banged up. The prior two years, Harris played 80 and 82 games. There’s value in that, as one cannot accumulate fantasy points if one is not on the court. Anyways, Harris is an UFA after this season and will get paid. He’s also only 26 years old, entering the prime of his career, so there’s a chance that he can continue improving. That would make all his owners nice and toasty indeed.

UPDATE: Harris, along with Boban Marjanovic, and Mike Scott were traded to PHI for Landry Shamet, Wilson Chandler, Mike Muscala, 2020 1st, 2021 1st via MIA (unprotected), 2021 2nd, and 2023 2nd.

All hail The Logo.

That PHI starting lineup looks kind of diesel as well, though.

  • Ben Simmons
  • J. J. Redick
  • Jimmy Butler
  • Tobias Harris
  • Joel Embiid

Here’s what else I saw last night:

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Son

Fantasy Basketball: Full Monte

January 31, 2019 | 2018 Fantasy Basketball, Fantasy Basketball Daily Notes | 19 Comments

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For the one woman reader out there, if you got excited because you thought this post would correlate to The Full Monty, I have three things to say to you. First, thank you for being the lone woman reader. Second, I apologize. Third, get your mind out of the gutter. Pervert. This post is about Monte Morris of the Denver Nuggets. He’s been a solid player all season for the Nuggets, but last night? Well, we got the Full Monte as he received his second start of the season because Jamal Murray is still recovering from an ankle injury.

PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV 3PT FG FT
20 7 7 2 0 0 3/4 8/12 1/1

Played a team-high and whopping 40 minutes! I wasn’t joking about the Full Monte bit. Now, Murray is the entrenched starter, so Morris won’t be surpassing him on the depth chart, but he’s still a valuable backup and will get run on a nightly basis. Coming into last night’s game, Morris had been averaging a tick under 25 minutes, 10.2 points, 1.2 threeecolas, 2.5 boards, 3.7 dimes, and 0.9 steals. He was shooting 48% from the field and 79% from the line. The key number for Morris is the assist-to-turnover ratio (5.45), which is second in the NBA. 180 assists to 33 turnovers in 49 games. That’s an endearing quality to have when it comes to NBA coaches. Almost as captivating as asian parents seeing their daughter date a man with a PhD in medicine. Bottom line, Morris is going to get run, which gives him a high floor. As evidenced last night, though, when he starts, you get the Full Monte.

Here’s what else I saw last night:

Please, blog, may I have some more?