Perhaps no player since the great Oscar Robertson has felt like such a nightly threat to record a triple-double than Russell Westbrook. Lately, when the Thunder point guard takes the court on any given night, you’re expecting huge production. You can just tell how much he wants it. He is a special player with an unparalleled combination of aggression and talent…and it was on full display on Tuesday night.

For the third game in a row and the sixth time this month, Russell Westbrook poured in double-digit points, grabbed double-digit rebounds, and handed out double-digit assists. He finished Tuesday’s home win with 21, 13 & 15.

After Tuesday’s game, Westbrook now has March averages (11 games) of: 20.6 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 11.4 assists.

The remarkable thing though, is that Russ is ranked 54th for 9-category per-game fantasy value this month, due in large part to 4.7 turnovers per game and a high-volume .408 mark from the field. This is a perfect illustration of how eye-popping numbers can be misleading when gauging a player’s actual value to your team. In contrast, Kawhi Leonard is a full 50 ranking spots ahead of Westbrook this month with more modest averages of 22.7/7.4/2.9. But when you add in a .495 shooting percentage and only 1.6 TOs, the valuation swings wildly in his favor.

So while Russell Westbrook is posting trip-dub after trip-dub, it’s prudent for fantasy owners to keep in mind exactly what goes into the making of a star in the real world versus the fantasy world as this 2015-2016 season comes to an end.

Let’s take a look at some of the other note-worthy performers on a quiet four-game Tuesday night in the NBA…

 

Hornets @ Nets

Hot: Jeremy Lin – For the second night in a row, Lin dropped 20+ off the bench, finishing the Hornets’ road win with 21/2/4/1/0. He got there on a tidy 8-12 from the field including one made 3-pointer. Tuesday’s effort marks the third straight game of 25 or more minutes and all three have led to double-digit shot attempts, .600+ shooting, and a total of six made treys. If he is sitting around on any waiver wires, he’s probably worth a pickup while he’s got the hot hand.

Not: Thaddeus Young – The subject of last Tuesday’s lead posted a stinker in Brooklyn this week. Thad hit only 5-12 shots (no threes, no FT attempts) and had six giveaways. He also contributed nothing defensively in an empty 10/8/1/0/0 line. Owners running him out there in playoff lineups have to hope he posts a big line on Thursday versus the Cavs to make up for this dud.

Worth Mentioning: Nicolas Batum scored 23 points but his complementary stats were lacking as he only had two boards and two dimes. He connected on four triples though and didn’t turn it over in 39 minutes for a bit of a mixed bag on Tuesday…Kemba Walker‘s shooting woes continued as he made just 4-14 versus the Nets. That makes five straight games in which Walker hasn’t even hit the 40% field goal mark, and on relatively high volume he is really hurting owners in that category…Brook Lopez returned from a night off and missed a double-double by just one rebound. He poured in 29 points and handed out six helpers to go with those nine rebounds and despite the lack of defensive stats, this was a nice return from a brief absence…The Brooklyn point guard spot continues to be a fantasy wasteland as Donald Sloan (0/3/6/0/0, 0-5 FGs) and Shane Larkin (7/3/5/1/0) failed to impress. Owners looking ahead to next week’s 5-game slate will have to hope that one of these guys emerges quickly because the timeshare is doing no one – in fantasy or reality – any favors…Rondae Hollis-Jefferson played in his first game since early-December and saw 15 minutes of run. He posted a modest line of 5/3/2/1/0, but by all accounts looked decent for someone who has missed 50 straight games. He is worth a pickup if you’re in need of a steals specialist heading into next week.

 

Heat @ Pelicans

Hot: Hassan Whiteside – He is perhaps the best example of “talent is talent” and “minutes are minutes.” Coming off the bench has long had a negative stigma attached to it, but Whiteside is proving that it simply doesn’t matter so long as you see court time. He beasted again on Tuesday, taking advantage of a completely over-matched Pelicans frontcourt, to the tune of 24/14/0/1/3. He missed only one of his 11 FGAs and is a full blown stud, starter or not.

Not: Luol Deng – Tuesday’s five point dud marks the second game in a row that Deng hasn’t even threatened double-digit scoring in a sub-30 minute role. With a pair of talented, young wing players behind him in Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson, coach Spoelstra may be looking to cut back on Deng’s workload in the final weeks of the regular season. If Luol doesn’t see a bump in his next game out, it might be time to look elsewhere as patience is not an affordable virtue during the fantasy playoffs.

Worth Mentioning: The aforementioned Richardson cooled off in 24 minutes with only six points and a lonely rebound to his name. Coming in off three straight games of 17-19 points scored, this seems like just an off night…Luke Babbitt got hot and scored 23 points on 10-19 shooting, including a pair of treys. With the Pelicans’ frontcourt in shambles there is going to be plenty of opportunity for a warm body like Babbitt to contribute meaningful stats out of simple necessity…New Orleans guards struggled with their shot all night against the Heat as the trio of Jrue Holiday (7-23), Toney Douglas (4-16) and Tim Frazier (3-10) combined to shoot under 29%. There is fantasy potential here with Holiday being the far & away best option, but the lack of pure talent is going to produce nights like these down the stretch for guys like Douglas and Frazier.

 

Rockets @ Thunder

Hot: James Harden – Despite a tender ankle that was evident throughout the game, Harden fought through and finished with 24/7/16(!)/4/0. The 16 assists were a career-high and he had 10 of them by halftime. With Patrick Beverley taking on the role of spot-up 3-point shooter (he was 4-6 from deep on Tuesday), Harden has a number of options to drive & kick to if the lane isn’t open for his shot or a lob to Dwight Howard. So long as The Beard doesn’t suffer an aggravation to his ankle, he should be a top-5 asset down the stretch with big lines like Tuesday’s the norm, rather than the exception.

Not: Randy Foye – In 24 minutes of floor time, you’d expect more than one assist and a pair of steals. 0-5 from the floor (four of which were attempted from beyond the arc) and little involvement elsewhere in the game goes to show you that Foye, despite the solid minutes, shouldn’t be anywhere near your fantasy roster despite the occasional double-digit scoring “outburst.”

Worth Mentioning: All five Rockets starters scored in double-figures, including Trevor Ariza who needed 18 shots to score 13 points. Despite the lack of efficiency, Ariza provided eight boards, four dimes, three triples and three steals which will have fantasy owners forgetting pretty quickly about the poor shooting…Michael Beasley saw his lowest minutes total of the last five games at only 16. He still managed to get up a dozen shots (connecting on five of them) on his way to 11/4/1/0/1. He has been shooting with both high frequency and high percentage since arriving in Houston and is worth a look if you’re chasing points in your head-to-head matchups…Serge Ibaka had 15 & 8 with three blocks against the Rockets and the fact that that’s a noteworthy positive line for him tells you all you need to know about his mostly disappointing campaign. Those should have been his averages…No player in the league posts more empty double-doubles than Enes Kanter and he did so again on Tuesday with 10 & 10 and only a single steal to complement it…Steven Adams was the anti-Kanter, taking care of the defensive categories with a pair of both steals and blocks. He scored only eight points while collecting a mere three rebounds though.

 

Grizzlies @ Lakers

Hot: Tony Allen – How does a guy with some of the worst shooting mechanics in the game go 12-12 from the field? I’m glad you asked. His opponent was the Los Angeles Lakers. ‘Nuff said. 27/4/5/1/0 for the Grindfather at Staples Center on Tuesday, but it wasn’t enough as the Lakers actually came out with a seven-point win. Go figure. Allen’s owners probably don’t much care though so long as he’s posting big lines like this for the injury-ravaged Grizz.

Not: Ray McCallum – Yikes. 17 minutes as the starter to newly acquired Jordan Farmar‘s 31. It makes sense when you see that all Ray Mac did in those 17 minutes was miss two shots, collect zero rebounds or defensive stats, and hand out three assists while turning it over once. What once looked like Briante Weber‘s job was then taken by McCallum and is now likely to be stolen by Farmar. Mike Conley can’t get healthy soon enough.

Worth Mentioning: Zach Randolph put up a rare defensive gem with three steals and a block to complement his 16/6/5 line. More of that please, Z-Bo!…Matt Barnes didn’t show up on Tuesday with only 9/0/3/0/1 in 32 minutes. He’s been far more versatile than this lately and remains a hold…Julius Randle did his best Randolph impression, posting 13/14/5/1/3 for one of the best across-the-board lines of his young career…Jordan Clarkson finally broke out of his shooting slump and connected on eight of his 13 attempts from the field. That including two makes from long distance and he added a pair of steals to round out a solid bounce-back night…D’Angelo Russell suffered a bruised shin and exited after only 22 minutes of floor time. More minutes and opportunity to Marcelo Huertas and Sweet Lou Williams if the rook needs to miss any time with his ouchy.

 

That wraps up another Tuesday evening in the Association. As always, if you want to chat waiver pickups, DFS plays, or anything else fantasy hoops, drop me a line on Twitter @moneyballmatty. Cheers.

  1. Dom says:
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    Hey good stuff Matty.

    This is the second of 2 weeks of the first round of my playoffs. Im winning 5-4, leading in blocks (by 27), points (101), FG% (.042), FT% (.068), and rebounds (34).

    I’m only 3 behind in 3pm, my question is should I go for winning that cat or prioritize protecting the 5 I’m winning? I guess I got somewhat burned streaming josh Richardson last night for 3’s. For Util tonight i’m deciding between my best option for 3’s (Gary Harris), best rebound/FG% option (Gobert), or somewhere in between (Porzingis, Aaron Gordon, Clarkson, Wiggins). What do you think? Thanks

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @Dom: Hey Dom. Thanks man.

      Yeah, Richardson was a tough one last night. He was coming in so hot, especially from distance. He gets San Antonio tonight, so it’s possible he doesn’t bounce back until later in the week.

      I would avoid Porzingis and Gordon right off the bat just because they are both prone to total duds by way of coach benching. Three of Zinger’s last six games have been minutes in the 20s. But he has 7 boards in each of his last three and 6 total blocks thru those three. Unfortunately his shot has been WAY off lately so he could hurt you in FG%. As far as Gordon, he’s just so tough to trust with the potential for getting Skiles’d.

      Clarkson has been awful for most of this month, apart from last night. Even on the tail end of a B2B he’s likely to see 30+ minutes and has a good matchup against PHX. But with so many lousy outings in recent memory, I wouldn’t trust him.

      Gary Harris is a solid option, but even against Philly he’s unlikely to set the world on fire. Probably something in the area of 14/4/2 with a steal and a three.

      Gobert is in a nice spot tonight catching a Houston team on the second night of a B2B. He’s primed for a double-digit rebounding game and hopefully a couple blocks. And the odds favor him shooting 50% or better.

      Wiggins is another good option tonight against the defenseless Kings. He has been shooting better recently and chipping in about a steal, a block and a three this month. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him go for 25/5/3/2/1 with a three.

      I would rank them: Wiggins, Gobert, Harris, Clarkson, Porzingis, Gordon. And I’m leaning Wiggins over Gobert because 27 is a big lead in a tough category like blocks so you’re probably better going with Wiggy and his potential to drain multiple threes (which Rudy obviously doesn’t have).

      Good luck!

      • Dom says:
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        @Matty: thanks, he’s loading up on a big lineup so I’m running Gobert out there to protect boards lead. Should I play Wiggins (sac) over Tobias Harris (ORL)?

        • Matty

          Matty says:
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          @Dom: I was just about to say “Wiggins, for sure!” but then remembered that there’s no KCP for Detroit tonight and that’s a big chunk of the Pistons offense that gets spread out to guys like Tobias, Reggie & Marcus. I think I’d still prefer Wiggins as he’s showing more versatility lately and Tobias has ZERO steals and ONE block in his last six games combined – that’s awful. Wiggy against that terrible Sacto D is your man tonight.

  2. miles proudfoot says:
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    Great break down Matt! Really like the format.

    For the rest of the week, how would you rank Toney Douglas, Babbitt, Tim Frazier…I’m thinking in that order?

    For C’s, Amir Johnson (3/23, 3/26), Plumlee (3/23, 3/24, 3/26), Frye Biyombo Leuer (all 3/23, 3/25, 3/26). I like Amir the best, but thinking to maximize games go with Plumlee on 3/23 and 3/24, then choose one of the last three on 3/25 and 3/26. Thoughts? Which of the last three do you like best?

    Thank you!

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @miles proudfoot: Thanks Miles, I appreciate that. Glad you’re liking the format!

      Yeah, I think that order. TD is starting and getting run in the 30s. And if for some reason Norris Cole comes back, he’ll probably bump Frazier from the rotation entirely while Douglas would still maintain some value off the bench. Babbitt is usable so long as Ryno is sitting with his groin injury…and given how lousy the reporting is out of New Orleans, it’s really tough to tell. But Luke looked solid last night and there’s obviously lots of shots to go around for guys who can make ’em.

      As for the Cs – all of those guys are pretty hit & miss so definitely want to max out the games played and hope you can make up for inconsistency with volume. Go Plumdog tonight and tomorrow and then probably Leuer on the 25/26 B2B if Chandler is out. With JV back (most likely) for Toronto I can’t see Bismack getting more than 20-25 minutes a night and helping you really only in boards and blocks. Leuer should be able to get you more points, some boards, maybe a couple threes and a smattering of defensive stats. But that’s ONLY if Chandler is out.

      Good luck!

  3. Joe says:
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    9-cat league where we play PG-SG-SF-PF-C-Util-Util. It’s early in the week but my current play off matchup stands like this:

    I’m UP in FG% .481-.423, FT% .810-.707, 3PTM 15-10, PTS 175-149, AST 33-27, TOs 23-26.

    I’m down in REB 35-67, STL 9-16, and BLK 2-11.

    I have the following players available for tonight: Wall, Teague, G.Harris, Redick, Middleton, Zingis, Taj Gibson, Gobert, Gortat but have to bench two of them (and I have to play either Zingis or Taj because they’re my only active PF eligible players).

    Who rides the pine? I’m leaning toward sitting Gobert because I’m already so behind on blocks (my opponent has Whiteside, Ibaka, Cousins, and Favors) and boards, and because Gobert is very iffy on points and FTs. I’m inclined to seat Zingis and play Taj at PF because Zingis has been so inconsistent lately and his FG% can be atrocious on a bad night.

    What do you think? Long question, but I hope my eternal gratitude counts for something!

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @Joe: I would go Taj over Zinger because both should give you points in the teens with 6-10 rebounds, but Taj is far more likely to do it on 50% shooting. His defensive stats have been nice the last few times out as well, so I’d roll with him in that PF spot.

      I would go with Wall & Teague since they both had nice lines on Monday against one another and face each other again tonight. Not much reason to think they can’t repeat their success given teh matchup is the same, just a change of venue.

      Yes, I would bench Gobert. It’s going to be nearly impossible to catch your opponent in BLKs if he has those guys.

      I would keep Middleton in there as the Milwaukee starters will have to come up big if they want to stay competitive in Cleveland. I would also keep your steady Eddy of Gortat in there as well. You know what you’re going to get and that’s something in the 16 & 10 range with a block and good FG%.

      I would bench whoever of Harris & Redick you think will have the worse night. They both get good opponents – Harris vs. essentially a D-League team and Redick in what should be a shootout with GSW. Go with your gut on that one.

      Best of luck with your choices.

      • Joe says:
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        @Matty:

        Thanks, Matty!

  4. Drez1 says:
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    Hey JB, who do you think has higher upside in a dynasty: Jaymychal (close enough, lol) Green, or Josh Richardson? Thanks mayne.

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @Drez1: Hey Drez. I’m no JB, but I’ll toss in my 2c.

      I think Richardson probably. If he sticks in Miami, you have a couple wing starters who are getting pretty long in the tooth in Wade & Deng. There is going to be a lot of opportunity for youngsters like Winslow and J-Rich pretty soon.

      The Memphis situation feels like one that is going to get completely blown up in the offseason and who knows what the depth chart will look like in October. Green is a fine enough talent, but he may not have a clear path to success depending on what moves Grizz management makes.

      • Drez1 says:
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        @Matty:

        Haha, sorry about that (noticed right after I posted, lol). Thanks for the help, though. I like em both, so it’s a tough choice. Ugh…

  5. Melo says:
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    Hey Matty, good read!

    I hate situations like these, of my 13 players, 12 can play today, so I need to decide wisely who will start tonight. It’s just the begining of the week, so all cats are in the mix rigt now.

    Wall, Gary Harris, Hood, Horford, Favors, Monroe, Draymond, Knight, W. Matthews, Bradley, McCollum and Ariza are available to play. I’m leaning on leaving Ariza (Utah have top defense, and reeeeeally slow pace, so i don’t expect good numbers from him), and I have no idea who else, Matthews is going up against his former team, on the road, he’ll be pumped for that, playoff atmosphere for sure (huge game for both teams), and he’ll probably play close to 40 minutes. I don’t know, maybe Bradley, he’ll be to occupied guarding DDR to really contribute on the offensive end..

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @Melo: Hey Melo. Thanks brother.

      Yeah, some tough decisions out there for sure.

      I think you MUST play: Wall, Horford, Favors, Draymond, McCollum. That leaves: Harris, Hood, Moose, Knight, Wes, Avery, Ariza.

      Ariza is so tough to sit because he has that monster 3 & D potential every night, but he’s on the tail end of a B2B and, like you said, has a poor matchup. He’s definitely in the mix to sit.

      Bradley, the other guy you said you’re leaning towards, is coming off a really good game…BUT, just recently (March 19th) he played the Raps and was pretty “meh” – 8/4/2/3/1…good D stats, but shot 4-13 with no threes. I’d expect a slightly better game, but I doubt he’ll blow up.

      Monroe might be a sit as well since he’s been alternating single-digit and double-digit scoring games and has been routinely seeing sub-30 minutes this month. It’s tough to predict what he might do in this matchup with the Cavs since he hasn’t played them since mid-November.

      Gary Harris is getting the creampuff matchup with the Sixers, but rarely blows up for much more than 17/4/3 kinda lines. Good and fairly steady, but he’s never going to win you a week.

      Knight gets a tired Lakers team and should feast tonight. I’d play him as his usage is going to be big and if his shot is falling, he could drop 25+ easily.

      Hood gets Houston and the Harden “defense” which is always a good spot. If he doesn’t get into foul trouble guarding The Beard, Hood should be able to get loose for 20 with some threes and steals. I’d play him too.

      Ultimately, if I’m in your shoes, I’m leaning towards playing: Wall, Hood, Horford, Favors, Draymond, Knight, Wes, McCollum. And then going with my gut between Harris, Moose, Avery and Ariza. Harris and Avery being a little more consistent while Moose & Ariza have the upside if everything breaks in their favor.

      Some good choices though and I don’t see a guy in there who is in a position to post a complete dud (under reasonable circumstances). Good luck!

      • Melo says:
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        @Matty:
        Thanks for the help man!

        I’ll leave Moose out there because I dropped Mahinmi for Wess so I’m in a need of some rebounds, and he’ll contribute at least in that cat. We’ll see how it goes, I hope to make the right decision by tonight games.

  6. tentyme says:
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    in a h2h weekly league 9 cats. and we don’t use TO’s I had a inj this week so I can put in a bench player. would you start david lee this week or bismarck. both have 3 games. I’m not so sure how parsons inj will affect lee and of course with jonas back is it still worth it to play bismarck .he still seems to get decent boards and blocks and FG% if he starts or not. Lee seems to get less minutes ….damn I’m stuck I can’t decide on who to play. whats your thoughts?

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @tentyme: Hey tentyme. Tough spot, but I think Lee will take points, weighted FG% and FT%. Bismack should take blocks. And they’ll likely be close in boards and TOs, with very minimal contributions (splitting hairs) in assists, steals, threes.

      I would lean towards Lee now that Parsons is out and hope that means a bump in minutes with time at the 4 alongside Zaza. If he can jump up to 24-26 MPG I think he’ll be more valuable than Bis this week.

      But since they’re very close, the best advice I could give you is: go with your gut.

      • tentyme says:
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        @Matty: Thank you for our thoughts. It is so close I’m racking my brain. And BTW this was probably the most complete thought out answer I have received in the 3 years I have been asking everyone one on this site for baseball, basketball and football. So Thank you again.

        • Matty

          Matty says:
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          @tentyme: Happy to help, brother.

          I just took a closer look at their respective 3-game schedules this week and I think I like Lee even more. Dallas is going to have to score a TON to keep pace with each of Portland, GSW and Sacto. All games are on the road for the Mavs too, so Lee’s offense will be needed with most of those games having a winner scoring into the 110s.

          Bismack’s schedule is ok and I’d anticipate he gets some extra run against Houston on Friday. JV gets in foul trouble a ton and he’ll probably take an early seat against Dwight Howard and a driving James Harden. I’d guess that would be Bis’ most likely double-double night if he’s to have one this week.

          That may not help you with your coin toss decision, but figured I’d share just in case. Cheers!

  7. Poisonous Stuff says:
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    Hello!

    With the news of Salah Mejri starting, is it worth dropping Miro, Frazier, Douglas, JR, Motie, or Beasley for him?
    The issue is if I drop the first 4 guys right now, I would lose the Thursday games. But if I wait till tomorrow, he will most likely be gone tonight if he has another good game. Also, I currently only have 3 games on Sunday with Harden, Motie, Beasley. What are your thoughts? Here is the current score:

    FG%, FT%, 3PTM, PTS, REB, AST, ST, BLK, TO
    .385 .848 10 189 77 43 20 13 42 <–Me
    .471 .800 15 191 60 41 20 5 21

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @Poisonous Stuff: Hey man, how’s it goin’?

      If you’re staying up late (for east coasters) tonight, maybe you can snag Mejri right when the day flips around midnight or shortly thereafter. Dallas doesn’t tip until 10:00pm EST, so their game won’t be done until around 12:30 – technically tomorrow. So maybe you can grab Mejri if he looks decent through three quarters while still locking in your Thursday players. Bit of a risk, but it might work.

      I would drop Frazier most likely. You’re splitting stats between him and Douglas and I think you’ll need Beasley’s scoring and boards on the Sunday.

      • Poisonous Stuff says:
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        @Matty: Unfortunately I play with couple friends that lives in Asia, so our night time is actually their day time. But judging from your response, it’s probably not worth wasting a Thursday game to get him this early. Felton is also available so hopefully I’ll be able to snag one of the two at midnight tonight. Thanks!

  8. James says:
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    Great read man!!. I have Cody Zeller, Taj and Arthur as my bigs and for some reason i am winning rebounding but usually i punt BLK,Reb and FG%

    I am just a bit worried with Mahinmi hurting my FT% which i usually win 95% of the time. I was wondering if Babbitt or Mahinmi or both would be a good pick up for the rest of the week as i am in the semi this week.

    Thanks

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @James: Thanks James, appreciate it.

      Yeah, I think you can grab Mahinmi. He’s got three games left this week (starting tomorrow) and he actually hasn’t been too bad from the charity stripe in March. He’s played in 10 games this month and is shooting 15-23 (65%) with only 2.3 attempts per game, so he’s not going to really drag you down if that keeps up. Encouraging also is that his minutes are up in his last couple games at 36 and 31, so the opportunity is there for him to produce as the Pacers jockey for playoff seeding.

      Babbitt would be more attractive if he had more than just the two games remaining. The majority of teams have three left and the Pelicans aren’t one of ’em so you’re losing on volume there…and with a guy like Babbitt, if he throws in one dud, you’re really cooked.

      Good luck in your semis!

  9. Bye Felica says:
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    If you play daily fantasy KCP is out so Stan Jo is a cheap punt play tonight.
    Also applies to regular fantasy if you have daily moves plug him in tonight for a quick stream. I used him as a punt and plugged in a CP3/Wall combo on yahoo daily. Noice!

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @Bye Felica: Agreed. There’s value to be had out there tonight with guys like StanJo and maybe even Salah Mejri getting the start in what should be a pretty high-paced game vs Portland.

      And if you can get a couple of the elite PGs (CP3, Wall, Lillard, Lowry) in your lineup tonight as a result, you should do pretty well as I think they can all post big lines in their situations/matchups.

      • Bye Felica says:
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        @Matty: yup, i used Sean Kilpatrick instead of Stanley and i came up big last night with DeAndre hitting over 50 pts. I also had Klay,Poison Goose, Rolo, Rjax, and Haywood. Finished in the top 12 in a couple of different buy-ins. Bout time i won, i was on a huge losing streak leading up to last night!

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