Well, that was a bit of a bloodbath.

On what should have been a relatively quiet evening in the NBA, there sure wound up being a lot of noise. And not a lot of it was good noise. For a lot of fantasy owners, Tuesday probably sounded a bit like this.

Mid-game injuries, late-breaking inactives, and low minutes due to a few blowouts seemed to be the consistent narrative of the night.

We’ll get to all that depressing stuff, but let’s start out on a high note – Mo Williams had himself a game. On nearly perfect shooting (8-9 FGs, 9-10 FTs, 4-4 from 3-point range), Mo helped the Cavaliers slip past the Utah Jazz 118-114 in the best game of the night. In addition to the stellar percentages, Williams chipped in six boards, six dimes, and stole the ball twice just for funzies. Five turnovers took a bit of shine off an otherwise brilliant outing, but this still goes down as one of the top fantasy lines of the evening. Mo Williams will continue to be a must-start player until Kyrie Irving comes back, and common sense would suggest that if Mo keeps balling at a high level and the Cavs keep winning, there’s no reason to rush Kyrie back anytime soon. So it’s a bit of a snowball effect in that the immediate returns are great, but they’re also likely to help extend Mo’s opportunity for a 30+ MPG role on a title contending team. People waiting on Irving to return won’t enjoy hearing that, but it’s championship-or-bust in Cleveland, so Kyrie isn’t coming back with health a single percentage point below 100.

Not to be outdone, LeBron James had himself a phenomenal fourth quarter, scoring 17 points (6-8 FGs), 4 rebounds, 3 assists and a steal as the Cavs scored 38 points in the final frame against one heck of a good defensive team. LBJ finished the game with 31/7/8/2/0 and dropped in a three pointer. He matched Mo Will’s five giveaways and missed four of his 12 freebies, but for all intents and purposes this was a win for LeBron owners as he made it out of the game healthy after soldiering through an owwy on his thigh.

Let’s get on to the rest of the notables…

 

THE GOOD

Alec Burks – Keeping with the game in The Land, Burks played 30 pretty impressive minutes dropping a team-high 24 points on 7-13 shooting, including four long balls and a perfect 6-6 from the charity stripe. Throw in three boards, the same number of dimes, and a swipe, and Alec’s fantasy owners are hoping this type of court time and statistical production become the norm rather than the exception.

Russell Westbrook – Oh, what could have been if not for a 24-point blowout. Russ had a triple-double (22 points, 11 rebounds, 11 assists), combined with three deep balls and a steal in only 28 minutes. With Kevin Durant not returning for the second half, Russ could have had a truly special game but he just wasn’t needed on the court for the fourth quarter with the Thunder dominating. If KD misses any time, Westbrook becomes a must play in DFS regardless of opponent, and his season-long owners are looking at a top-2 or 3 asset.

Dion Waiters – Blowout factor in full effect here, but Neon Dion went off for 25 points on 7-10 from the field, with four treys and a perfect 7-7 from the foul line.

Luol Deng – Actually provided meaningful fantasy production in his 30 minutes tonight! 14/4/4/3/0 with three treys and no turnovers.

Greg Monroe – Moose was really the only Milwaukee player to show up tonight, posting 17/14/4/1/1 in 33 minutes.

Nicolas Batum – Continues to provide nice across-the-board numbers with 17/6/3/0/2, three triples, 6-11 from the field and 2-2 from the FT line. Not in love with the four turnovers, but that’s going to happen with the heavy run (35 minutes) and increased ball-handling responsibilities.

Karl-Anthony Towns – With no Andrew Wiggins or Ricky Rubio vs the Hornets, KAT was the lead dog and posted 19/13/2/1/3. It appears as though Towns is starting to extend his range a bit more over the last few games, taking more long twos (and even the occasional three). His FG% is going to suffer as a result (7-16 tonight), but the rookie will find balance and learn where his sweet spots are as the season rolls along. Overall he looks really good, really early.

Ryan Anderson – With no Anthony Davis for half of the game, Ryno posted a sweet shooting line of 10-16 from the field, and 2-4 from 3-point range, racking up 25 points. Anderson tacked on 11 boards and a pair of assists in 28 productive minutes. He’s obviously in line to see a nice value boost if AD has to miss games, but his fantasy owners will want to see a few more steals and blocks to insulate them from nights when his shot isn’t falling.

Ish Smith – 17 points and 12 assists for the Pelicans’ diminutive backup PG. Add in a steal, a block, 6-11 from the floor and 5-5 from the line, and you can safely say that Ish got real off the bench tonight!

Kyle Lowry – He was feisty tonight and probably should’ve gotten tossed from the game given all the loud & demonstrative protesting he was doing after foul/non-foul calls. K-Low stayed in though and dropped a 23/7/9/3/1 line on the Knicks. He added a pair of long balls to help soften the blow of four TOs and a couple missed freebies.

 

THE BAD

Utah Jazz Defense – No blocks. For a team that had Rudy Gobert & Derrick Favors play a combined 68 minutes. No wonder Cleveland hung 118 on ’em.

Raul Neto – Despite starting, he saw only 13 minutes, and missed both of the shots he attempted. Meanwhile, Trey Burke played exactly half the game and poured in 16 points with a couple treys. If you have to own a Jazz PG, don’t be swayed by who is out there during the opening tip.

Kevin Durant – Left the game in the first half with a sore hamstring and didn’t return, which is really too bad because he was humming along nicely – 14/10/4 with two threes in only 17 minutes. There is no sense panicking until we know more about the severity of Durant’s injury, but he’s due for an MRI on Wednesday and all fantasy owners can do is cross their fingers that it’s good news. If KD misses extended time, some combination of Kyle Singler, Anthony Morrow and Dion Waiters would likely be looked upon to pick up some of the scoring slack on the wing.

John Wall – Without his running mate, Bradley Beal (who was ruled out shortly before tip-off due to a bruised shoulder), Wall looked out of sorts. His shot was off (4-13 FGs, no threes) and he only played 25 minutes as his team got steamrolled by OKC. Silver lining? Five assists and no turnovers – so that’s somethin’.

Jordan Clarkson – With no Kobe Bryant, I was expecting more than the 12/2/0/2/0 from Clarkson. No treys and three turnovers really made this a night to forget and all we can do is hope he’s better the next time he’s looked upon to be the lead dog.

Isaiah Thomas – 1-for-10 from long range? Yikes. 6-20 overall from the field as the Pizza Guy didn’t exactly deliver in another start at the point. Only one assist in 34 lead guard minutes is pretty awful when contrasted with three TOs. If Marcus Smart continues to miss time, IT2/3 should be much better than this.

Andrew Wiggins Ricky Rubio – Both guys got scratched relatively close to tip-off and I’m sure it burned more than a few DFS players who had them locked into lineups. Initial reports suggest neither guy is in danger of missing extended time, so just keep watching the cables for updates. Fantasy owners took this one on the chin tonight though.

Gorgui Dieng Nikola Pekovic remains out. Kevin Garnett didn’t dress tonight. Dieng responds with what? As many turnovers (two) as points. Six rebounds and nothin’ else. 18 minutes of horrawful (yep, combo word of horrible and awful – he was that bad). Adreian Payne saw more court time (20 minutes) than the Gorgeous Dong. It’s tough to cut bait on a player you probably spent a top-100 pick on, but it’s not looking good for Gorgui this year. Maybe Pek can come back in a month or so and Minny will trade Dieng at the deadline to someone who will actually put him in a position to succeed. Wishful thinking.

The Dallas Mavericks – Despite scoring 105 points as a team, the production was pretty evenly spread out. 13 Dallas players saw 10 or more minutes tonight – not exactly a tight rotation that lends itself well to big fantasy lines.

Kristaps Porzingis – The Zinger didn’t have it tonight, going 3-11 from the floor with no threes or defensive stats. He also coughed up the rock three times and only played 20 minutes despite it being a close contest. It was simply an off night for the rook, but he did have a highlight reel putback slam that will get the kids fired up.

 

THE NOTEWORTHY

J.R. Smith – Returned after a multi-game absence to play 22 minutes. He wasn’t great (7 points on 3-7 shooting) but he probably just needed a game to knock the rust off.

Serge Ibaka – A nice offensive night (22 points on 9-15 from the field and 3-3 from deep) was offset a bit by no defensive stats.

Kobe Bryant – Ruled out a short while before the game started with reports of rest due to the Lakers being on a back-to-back, and also with talk of a sore back. We’ll have to wait and see if he’s going to suit up for Wednesday’s game to know what’s up with Bean.

D’Angelo Russell – ZERO fourth quarter minutes for this year’s second overall pick. But Nick Young played all 12. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2015-2016 Los Angeles Lakers.

Zach Lavine – Put up a nice 20/5/8/2/0 line with a trey in a spot start for the injured/resting Ricky Rubio.

Anthony Davis – Not unlike Kevin Durant, Brow played most of the first half only to not come out after halftime. Also like KD, Davis had some multi-cat goodness cookin’ with 17/7/2/1/1 before the break. Thankfully him being held out appears to be more due to the fact that he wasn’t needed than a sign of a significant injury – the Pelicans were up 18 at half and were never in jeopardy of giving up that lead. Keep your eyes peeled for updates on one of fantasy’s top two or three players.

Terrence Ross – It wasn’t reported until part way through the game, but TRoss is out indefinitely with ligament damage to a finger. Apparently he hurt it at some point during a strength & conditioning session. He wasn’t exactly setting the fantasy world on fire prior to this, but it opens up some opportunity for James Johnson (7/3/3/1/3 with a three), especially considering DeMarre Carroll is battling plantar fasciitis which can be very difficult to kick.

 

OPPORTUNITY IS EVERYTHING

Players who saw over 36 minutes of floor time on Tuesday:

Kevin Love (40), LeBron James (38), Mo Williams (36), Jae Crowder (37), Khris Middleton (37), Zach Lavine (37), Kevin Martin (40), Kyle Lowry (37), DeMar Derozan (39).

 

That’s all she wrote for this Tuesday’s wrap-up. If you want to chat waiver pickups, DFS plays, or anything else fantasy hoops, drop me a line on Twitter @moneyballmatty. Cheers.

  1. TheJohn says:
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    pick 1…

    staukas or ish smith…

    whos better in term of value… i need both 3’s and assist so both strength will come in handy…

    thanks!

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @TheJohn: I’m partial to Stauskas if only because his role seems more secure for the remainder of the season. Even when guys like Covington, Wroten, Marshall, etc. get healthy, I think Nik is looking at ~30MPG and a top-2 or 3 scoring option for the team. He’s not going to dime as much, but he is firing away from deep, so once they start dropping his production there could be prolific.

      Ish, on the other hand, has temporary value only…unless Jrue gets hurt again or Tyreke suffers a setback in his recovery. Ish doesn’t hit long balls – only four on the year in 189 minutes – but he has been passing the heck outta the ball when given minutes. He has only had less than 7 assists once this year and that was vs GSW when he only saw 11 minutes of run. Otherwise he’s been elite in that category.

      Philly has better schedule density through to the New Year as well, so I’d lean towards Stauskas even though I’m a fan of loading up on assists when they’re available with any measure of consistency.

  2. Ryan says:
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    Man, Brow’s owner for some strange reason is willing to trade him. With that happening last night, I think it’s time to pounce. I think my jimmy buckets and wiggins is fair enough trade or is it too much?, what other suggestions can you give me? My team:

    Pg- Bledsoe, Elfrid,
    Sg- harden, jimmy, danny green, george hill
    Sf- wiggins, batum
    Pf- millsap, draymond
    C- Noel, Gortat, Meyers Leonard

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @Ryan: Lots of panicking owners out there after slow starts and minor bumps & bruises to some big names.

      I’m a huge fan of Jimmy’s, so I would look to move a different player if I could. Maybe you could flip Paul Millsap along with a lower end player (Elfrid?) and see if that gets it done. Sapper is actually better than Brow (even per-game) so far in 9-cat, so make sure you hammer that point home when negotiating the trade.

      You could also try Harden for Davis straight-up now that Beard is posting some flashy point totals…but I’m guessing you’re looking to pair those two guys together for a potentially elite 1-2 punch.

      • Ryan says:
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        @Matty: thanks man; and yes, trying to pair beard and brow, if I can get that done, its gonna be a very enjoyful season

      • Ryan says:
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        @Matty: very persistent that he wants jimmy… guess I will have to give him jimmy and meyers leonard, not bad I guess

        • Matty

          Matty says:
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          @Ryan: Oh yeah, jump all over that. Jimmy & Meyers for Brow is a deal you have to do. Even in an ideal world where everything aligns perfectly, Jimmy probably couldn’t crack the top-3 in 9-cat value. Brow has Fantasy MVP potential (obviously) and if the price of bridging that gap is Meyers Leonard, pay it.

  3. hamtime says:
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    1. melo for favors & covington? y or n
    2. lowry/mason plum or ibaka/lou will
    3. drop myles turner or kelly olynyk for corey joseph, capella, WCS or hold both?
    4. ezeli or henson

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @hamtime:
      1) I’d rather have Favors than Melo straight up (they’re pretty close so far in value, but D-Fave has battled illness for a few games and that’s kept his MPG to 30 – once he gets up to the 32-34 range he should leapfrog Anthony). If you have the roster space to stash Covington for a week or three, I’d do it.

      2) Give me the Lowry side. He’s playing some great ball and currently sits with first-round value. I don’t see anything in his numbers that’s unsustainable and he just needs to stay healthy to be a top-15 player.

      3) I’d drop Olynyk and grab Capella. The Celts’ rotations are a mess and you just can’t count on Kelly game-to-game. CoJo might have a bit larger role for the next week or two while Carroll & TRoss are out, but I don’t think he’s going to have much upside unless Lowry gets hurt. Capela will get you a few starts when Howard sits (injury or B2Bs) and I think he’ll start to earn the coaches’ trust as the season wears on.

      4) Henson. He’s too good to keep playing low minutes and I don’t think Jabari Parker is a huge threat to start playing 30 minutes night in, night out anytime soon.

      • Zebo says:
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        @Matty: How many minutes do you think Henson tops out?

        • Matty

          Matty says:
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          @Zebo: As of now, it’s really tough to see a 20 MPG role for Henson. He DESERVES it and they paid him to play, but I don’t think Jason Kidd much cares about that. We’ll see what happens if the Bucks go on a losing streak, but right now I’d say that Henson will settle into a 18 MPG role in a static environment.

  4. n-dawg says:
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    hood or stuaskas? thanks

    you recon ibaka 3 ball might be back. if he gets that combo with blocks wowee he would be good

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @n-dawg: Ooooh, that’s tough. Probably a slight lean towards Hood as he’s holding top-80 value so far and Nik is outside the top-hundo. Once Sauce finds his rhythm and shots start falling I can see him creeping up 20 or so spots…but there’s also a chance that he stays cold long enough to start losing minutes and opportunity. Hood looks like a pretty major contributor for the Jazz and I think his role is pretty safe for the season.

      I dunno re: Ibaka and the long ball. Coming into last night he was 1-6 on his 3s with 18 blocks…and then all of a sudden he pours in all three treys he attempts and fails to swat a shot for the second straight game. I don’t see any consistency with either of those things as his role will ebb & flow based on the health of guys like Russ & KD. Ibaka owners can only hope that things even out over the course of the season and he can average close to one 3-pointer per game while staying above 2.0 BPG.

  5. jcg says:
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    12 team 9 cat. Looking for upside stash for this season. Would you drop Jerian Grant or Covington for any of:

    Stanley J, Henson, Myles, Lamb, W Chandler, Stauskas

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @jcg: Hmmm, some good options there. I’d say no to Lamb and Chandler – I’m not high on either of them due to the mess of options on their respective teams.

      StanJo could go bananas if/when Ilya gets hurt or plays himself out of a job.

      Henson just needs the minutes and there’s no reason that he shouldn’t get 20+ consistently other than Jason Kidd being Jason Kidd. But if Moose goes down, coach will have no choice but to go to Henson for longer stretches.

      Myles looks like his minutes are capped for now and I have no doubt it’s due to his general soreness (especially in his knees) from earlier in the season. Smart teams don’t mess around with young bigs and any signs of lower body fatigue.

      Stauskas has the clearest path to minutes right now of any guy mentioned, but we need to see him find the range before we can roll him out in lineups and not worry about him torpedoing your FG%.

      If pressed, I’d say drop Grant for Stauskas or StanJo. If this is pure upside stash (and you have the roster space to hold for weeks), keeping Covington is a good idea.

      • jcg says:
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        @Matty: @Matty: Thanks for the solid breakdown! Sounds like good advice to me. StanJo looked awesome before the regular season started, I hope he can get some minutes and consistency. Do you have any hope for the return of K Marshall or Tyreke?

        • Matty

          Matty says:
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          @jcg: I think Marshall will get into a pretty ugly timeshare with McConnell, Canaan and Wroten once they’re all healthy. I think Philly almost has to move one (or more) of those guys. All I know is that if TJM can post the gaudy assist numbers he has been, Marshall should be able to threaten double-digit dimes in 28-30 MPG.

          I think Tyreke will return to being Tyreke right around New Years. He’ll need a week or two to get his legs under him, but with Jrue on a maintenance plan and Brow not exactly a pillar of health, the Pellis will need everything Evans can give them. He should be a top-75 player for the last couple months of the season if he stays healthy.

  6. dom says:
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    good stuff

    any of Porzingis (@CHA), Clarkson (@ORL) (back to backs) or Terrence Jones (first game back eye injury) at risk of short minutes tonight? Deciding between those 3 for my Util spot.

    it’s pretty tough owning Myles Turner and Dieng in my other league, a deep 12er with 17 roster spots. More duds and I may turn 1 of them into a streaming spot, with 12 starting lineup spots there’s room to stream almost every night.

    James Johnson is getting run with Carrol and Ross hurt. Olynyk and J Bayless are available. Capela (back to backs) and Waiters (projected blowouts) are useful on certain nights. World Peace is averaging 2.3 threes?! Is this Lauvergne dude worth owning when he returns? Thanks

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @dom: Thanks, dom.

      Definitely Clarkson vs Orlando. It sounds like Kobe is closer to “doubtful” than he is “probable” for tonight’s game and JC will want to bounce back after posting a dud last night. The B2B shouldn’t impact him as he’s young and in great shape – and he only played 31 minutes last night, so it’s not like he’s coming off a really heavy workload.

      Yeah, I’m with you on Dieng especially. Mitchell just doesn’t seem to like him regardless of the situation and it’s going to take more injuries to the Wolves’ front court rotation for Gorgui to find more opportunity. He needs a change of scenery in the worst way. But seeing as how we simply can’t predict that with ANY certainty whatsoever, he’s a drop candidate any time now.

      James Johnson will need Carroll to continue missing time for him to continue posting usable numbers. JUST Ross being out isn’t enough as Terrence was only playing about 17MPG off the bench.

      I’d pass on both Olynyk and Bayless unless you know for sure that MCW is going to miss at least another week. I’m also passing on Waiters (way too inconsistent unless KD gets really bad news on his MRI) and MWP’s long-distance shooting is an aberration.

      I like Capela more than Dieng right now as he’s doing more with his low minutes and he’s a starter, like you said, on one side of the B2Bs. TJones is due back, but I’m not sure that’s going to make much of a dent in Clint’s value/opportunity. I’d make that flip right now between Gorgui and Capela. They seem to be on opposite trajectories and you want the Rocket.

  7. dem ribbies says:
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    What are your thoughts on TJ McConnell’s minutes going forward? Do you expect Marshall to be given the starting role outright when healthy? or are we looking at a timeshare?

    also, is Bazemore the new Draymond or is he just playing above his level?

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @dem ribbies: I think this job will ultimately be Marshall’s once he’s back in game shape and able to play consistent minutes (and back-to-backs). McConnell is a place holder for a guy who is a better pure passer. I don’t like Wroten as a fit next to shooters like Covington and Stauskas, and I especially don’t like him when the 6ers have two talented bigs to get involved too. TJM will be serviceable for a few more weeks and then I think he’ll find himself in a timeshare…followed shortly thereafter by a diminishing role as the team gets more bodies back.

      Bazemore is most certainly not the new Draymond. He is playing a bit above his head right now and I expect his production to settle down. I can see him maintaining a 28 MPG role with averages somewhere around 10/4/2/1.5/0.5 with 1.0 3s. A combined 3.0 STLs/BLKs/3s should keep him relevant even as the popcorn stats fall back to earth a bit. He’s a hold.

  8. Eddie Rooskie says:
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    AND yet another underwhelming game from the Dragon.. Pretty frustrating coming from a Heat fan that had high hopes for the team this year.

    I mean 2/10, not a single deep ball or trip to the line, and 3 assists! Do you think Spoelstra figures this one out anytime soon?

    I was offered:
    Kyle Lowry/Marc Gasol/Dragic
    for
    Wall/Whiteside/Kobe or Jabari

    Considering I need the assists and Lowry is playing like an almost 1st rounder, im this close to accepting and streaming blocks/rebounds when needed. But if Dragic doesn’t start playing to his potential it might not even be worth it at this point. Any thoughts?

    • v00dr00 says:
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      @Eddie Rooskie: I wouldn’t do that trade, personally. As soon as I saw Wall/Whiteside, it was a no in terms of the value that you would be getting from Lowry+Gasol. That Memphis team just isn’t very fantasy friendly and though Lowry is fantastic, Wall is already getting you elite assists and Kobe at any moment could go into one of his “I want to make plays for others” modes. Whiteside also somewhat helps to negate the shitty FG%’s that Kobe and occasionally Wall offer up. I think you ask for a better piece than Gasol and Dragic, if you’re itching to trade. That Whiteside/Wall combo is just too valuable in my opinion.

      Good luck!

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @Eddie Rooskie: Yeah, Dragic needs a Wade injury to even sniff his ADP. He looks like the fourth option on offense and the system isn’t setup in such a way that he’s going to have big assist numbers, so he needs to start swiping and draining threes at a higher level. Given Wade’s long and storied injury history there’s not much you can do but hold Dragic because his value is really low right now, so you won’t get much back in a trade for him.

      I would much prefer the Wall/Whiteside end of that deal. Wall is elite in assists, obviously, but he’s also defending the hell outta his opposition, with 30 stocks thru seven games. Whiteside shows no signs of slowing down posting no fewer than nine boards since the opener. He’s even hitting his FTs at a 60+% clip thru the early going.

      I’d be looking to get a considerable amount more than Lowry (though he has been really, really good so far) and an under-performing combo of MGasol & Dragic for those two studs.

  9. Fella says:
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    Matty,
    With guys like Jarrett Jack, Joe Johnson, and Clint Capela rostered, wondering if any (or all) of these guys should be taking one (or all) of their places (12 team H2H 9 cat):

    Evan Turner
    Ish Smith
    Marvin Williams
    Isaiah Canaan
    Dwight Powell
    Dennis Schroder
    Jeremy Lamb
    Corey Joseph
    John Henson
    Ramon Sessions

    Long list, I know…Thank you!

    • Fella says:
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      @Fella:

      Also available are Robert Covington and James Johnson..

      • Matty

        Matty says:
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        @Fella: Henson and Capela are close. Both guys struggle to find consistent minutes but have tantalizing upside if they find themselves getting 25/night. I’d look at schedule density to decide between those two as they’re quite similar in my eyes.

        If you can afford to stash Covington, I think he has much higher upside than Joe Johnson.

        I’d ride Jarrett Jack right to the edge of the cliff and just know that you’ll have to dump him if/when he gets traded. His 6.5 assists per contest and decent scoring and rebounding are valuable enough to offset mediocre 3-point shooting and lousy defensive stats. As soon as he loses this 30+ MPG role though, cut bait in favor of a guy like Dennis Schroder.

        Also, keep a close eye on Dwight Powell. As the Mavs fall farther down the standings I think DP is going to get more and more run. He has lots of energy and enough talent to make an impact with the right amount of floor time. I think he’s going to be a top-100 player after the All-Star break.

  10. jonny says:
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    I’ve been losing badly since day 1 this year and its pretty clear my team needs guard cats (ass/3s/stls). Thinking about going for a SG/wing and a PG to balance things out, but a lot of my guys are only gonna get lowball offers the way their playing right now.

    1)Should i move Marc or wiggins so i can keep this FT% punt? Any good buy low targets you can think of?

    2) Is it time to drop nurkic after losing a few weeks? Its a thin waiver wire in my league with guys like s.johnson, mcdermot, barton

    Thanks!

    14man h2h 10 cat (OREB)
    PG: Dragic, walker, Mo williams
    SG: wiggins, Lou williams, bellineli
    SF: D. green
    PF: O’quinn, T. jones
    C: M.gasol, whiteside, jordan, nurkic

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @jonny: Yeah, you’ve got a few guys there who are underperforming out of the gate, but you’re not in terrible shape. Maybe wait until after tomorrow night’s game between the Wolves and Warriors. If Wiggins plays (and he should) and drops 25+ points on national TV, his value will be pretty good. I’d look to flip him for a couple good deep & dime guys. Maybe look to grab a Danny Green (assuming your SF “D. Green” is Draymond) and a high assist guy as well.

      Unfortunately I think you just have to ride it out with Dragic and Gasol as they’re not going to net you anything close to fair market value right now. They need to string together a few eye-catching lines and then you can look to dump them for somebody who helps you out in the AST/3s/STLs cats.

      With regards to Nurk – yeah, I’d cut bait. There are so many options in the Denver frontcourt (Faried, Hickson, Lauvergne, Nokic) that even once Nurk is back, he won’t need to play heavy minutes. Assuming the Nuggets have plans for him as part of their future core, they won’t risk his health in what’s pretty much guaranteed to be a lost season. I’d rather sit on StanJo for a few weeks to see if things open up there than hold onto Nurkic.

      • jonny says:
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        @Matty:

        Thanks! Was thinking about buying low on danny green, is offering mo will or lou will too low? lol. Im not too surewhat kind of upside green has with so many offensive options on the spurs

        • Matty

          Matty says:
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          @jonny: You might be able to get DG for Mo Williams, but not Lou Will. Mo has probably six weeks of really solid production left in him (assuming Kyrie returns somewhere around the holidays) and then he’s going to fall off pretty quickly because the minutes just won’t be there. I would throw that offer out to the Danny Green owner and try to capitalize on Mo’s strong play and DG’s depressed value. Green has a nice outlook for the rest of the season, IMO, and he just needs to start seeing shots fall (which they did last night as he hit a trio of threes).

  11. Brian says:
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    Is Covington worth the #1 waiver?

    My Team:
    PG: Wall, Rubio
    SG: Wiggins, McCollum, Clarkson, Pope, W.Chandler
    F: Crowder, Bjelica, Gay , T. Jones
    C: Gobert, Drummond

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @Brian: He might be. Depends on what kind of quality typically hits your waiver wire every couple of weeks. Covington, when healthy, has top-50 or 60 potential. That’s a pretty sweet asset to be able to get post-draft without having to give up a “set-and-forget” starter. That said, I think the only guys I’d feel comfortable dropping for him are Pope and Chandler…and Pope would make me pause for at least a couple seconds to think about it.

      • Matty

        Matty says:
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        @Matty: Oh, and maybe Crowder too. But he’s a master thief currently and getting pretty nice minutes, so his value PLUS the top waiver priority would be tough to give up for Covington.

  12. Ken says:
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    Limited FA adds but can essentially make 2 moves per week and stay under limit. 12 team 12 starters 9cat H2H Would you just roll JR Smith out there each week or stream that spot week to week?

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @Ken: Give JR a couple more games to see if he can find his shot and start contributing in dimes and steals like he has in the past. If he continues to struggle and you’re not getting a combined three steals/3-pointers, I’d look to stream that spot and not feel too bad about letting Smiff hit the wire.

  13. Ralph says:
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    How would you rank ROS: Crowder, Otto Porter, Danny Green and Hood? Thanks.

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @Ralph: Hey Ralph – I’ve got ’em:

      1) Danny Green
      2) Otto Porter
      3) Rodney Hood
      4) Jae Crowder

  14. Fahed Misho says:
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    Danny Green was recently dropped and is sitting on Waivers, Would you consider dropping anyone from my team to pick up Green. I am in a 9-Cat 10 team league.

    Elfird Payton
    Klay Thompson
    Nicolas Batum
    Anthony Davis
    Rudy Gobert
    Deandre Jordan
    Evan Fournier
    Jarret Jack
    Otto Porter
    Darren Collison
    Nikola Miritoic

    Noteworthy Free Agents/Waiver Wire
    Danny Green
    Deron Williams
    Wesley Matthews
    Roy Hibbert
    Terrance Jones
    MArcus Thorton
    TJ McConnell
    Sullinger
    Powell

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @Fahed Misho: Run, don’t walk, to the wire and get Danny Green. Once his shot starts dropping (and it will) he’s going to be a top-50 asset. Despite his slow start, he’s already given owners 13 stocks and 7 treys thru 7 games. His minutes are rock solid at 27-29 every game and he’s even chipped in 4 assists in each of his last couple games.

      I’d swap out Fournier, Jack, Porter, Collison, and Mirotic for Green.

      Keep a close eye on Terrence Jones – he might be worth an add if his minutes increase consistently over his first two or three games back. And once he gets rolling, he can provide a ton of value.

      • Fahed Misho says:
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        @Matty:

        Wow didn’t expect that much praise for him. Thanks.

        • Matty

          Matty says:
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          @Fahed Misho: Here are Danny’s per-game 9-cat ranks each of the last few years:

          2014-2015: 23rd (28.5 MPG)
          2013-2014: 79th (24.3 MPG)
          2012-2013: 59th (27.5 MPG)

          He is a proven top-80 player three years in a row with upside into the top-25. He’s getting the minutes similar to 2012 and 2014, so unless he has all of a sudden forgotten how to shoot a basketball, he’s got nowhere to go but up from his current per-game rank of 172 (in 27.9 MPG).

          • Fahed Misho says:
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            @Matty:

            At this point I just nobody else has there on on him. I have the 10th wavier position. WISH ME LUCK!

  15. yungprofessional says:
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    awesome stuff as usual

    I want to drop Mozgov, but still need a big man. Steven Adams, Mahinmi or Henson?

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @yungprofessional: Thanks, yungpro! Glad you’re enjoying the content.

      That’s a tough call. I think it’s between Mahinmi and Henson for me. Henson is considerably more talented IMO and does more on a per-minute basis, but Ian has seen 20+ minutes in all six games he’s played in (and finished – he only played 5 minutes in a game where he left due to minor injury). Henson has gotten 20+ mins once. Yep – once.

      If it’s a “stash” I’m going to recommend Henson. But if you need semi-consistent production right away, I think you have to go with Mahinmi.

  16. RicoSuave says:
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    Great write-up Matty!

    12 team h2h points league…

    my team is pretty weak at C. I have Kanter, Dieng and Meyers Leonard ( we need to start 2 )

    there are a few options on the wire… what do you recommend I do (add/drop) to make my Centers a bit better/more reliable?

    WW options are: Ezeli, Adams, Deemon, Capela, WC-S, Lauvergne and Myles Turner.

    Thanks again!

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @RicoSuave: Thanks, Rico. I appreciate that.

      Yeah, that’s a tough group at C, though Meyers seems to be getting his ish together slowly but surely. And at least you can get pretty good points and boards from Kanter, even though the D stats won’t be there. Theoretically Dieng’s game should complement Kanter’s really well, but obviously that isn’t happening and everyone missed the memo that Gorgui was gonna be useless this year.

      I think I’d rather have Ezeli and maybe even Capela than Dieng right now. Gorgui just isn’t getting the run or touches, even on nights like Tuesday when multiple Wolves players sit. At least Capela is making his 15-20 minutes count with some blocks and boards.

      Dedmon, Adams, Lauvergne don’t interest me.

      Cauley-Stein is interesting later in the season once the Kings inevitably blow up. They are such a dysfunctional organization and it’s only a matter of time until things get a major shakeup and they just fully commit to a rebuild, while cultivating young talent like WCS. But for the time being, he can probably be left on the wire. Turner, again, feels like he might be a better second half player once he can prove capable of a heavier workload without having discomfort in his knees.

      • RicoSuave says:
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        @Matty: Thanks so much man!

        • Matty

          Matty says:
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          @RicoSuave: You got it, brother. Happy to help!

  17. Bro Jackson says:
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    Is Dwight Powell for real? Is his fg% legit? If he keeps this up, is he more valuable than A Gordon and M Turner?

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @Bro Jackson: Yep, I think he is. I watched him play for Team Canada during the FIBA Americas and he has some skills. Lots of energy and seems to have that intangible “nose for the ball” you just can’t teach.

      He isn’t taking any 3-pointers, he’s well-coached (and is by all accounts very “coachable”), so everything lines up to suggest that his FG% will stay pretty high. It’s not like he’s having plays drawn up for him where he’s thinking that he needs to shoot coming off a screen…he’s getting most of his points through hustle, loose balls, and high percentage shots near the rim. Prior to last night’s blowout, he had seen between 23-26 minutes in four straight games, so the opportunity is there…and I think it’s only going to grow. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him running for 28’ish MPG by the New Year.

      I think Aaron Gordon is a decent comp, though their games are a bit different. Potential value-wise though, they both have top-100 upside without much trouble at all. Just need Skiles and Carlisle to take the leash off (or at least extend it)!

      • Bro Jackson says:
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        @Matty: Perfect. Thanks for taking the time.

        • Matty

          Matty says:
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          @Bro Jackson: No worries, Bro. We got yer back, Jack(son)!

  18. eric says:
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    razzup slim!!!!! 9 cat 18 team h2h

    Round Pick Player Position
    1. (4) James Harden SG,SF
    2. (33) Eric Bledsoe PG,SG
    3. (40) Jeff Teague PG
    4. (69) Danilo Gallinari SF
    5. (76) Terrence Jones SF,PF
    6. (105) Aaron Gordon SF,PF
    7. (112) Alec Burks PG,SG
    8. (141) Zaza Pachulia C
    9. (148) Zach LaVine PG,SG
    10. (177) Kris Humphries PF,C dropped for mcconell
    11. (184) Jerian Grant PG
    12. (213) Clint Capela PF,C traded for jusuf
    AS you can see im very short handed w/ the bigs but pretty much i owned pts, 3s, asts, stls, ft% uhm 2 things:
    1. FA cory joseph and joffrey lauvergne will be available for tom (waiver) i have liked 6th on the order. Whom should i pick? and who to drop?
    2. someone is offering me boogie man and he would like to work out trade for bledsoe straight up or teague +1? should i go for it?
    Thanks slim! not a game! not a game!!!

  19. dem ribbies says:
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    Thx for the advice earlier. One more question for you if I may…

    I’m running a punt PTS/FT% build in a 10 team 9 cat H2H auction league w/ 6 keepers per season. See roster here…

    PG – CP3
    SG – Klay Thompson
    G – George Hill – PG
    SF – Kawhi Leonard
    PF – Draymond
    F – Ariza – SF
    C – Drummond
    U – DeAndre Jordan – C
    U – Danny Green – SG

    B – Terrence Jones – PF
    B – Tyson Chandler – C
    B – TJ McConnell – PG
    B – Bazemore – SF

    Would you snag any of the below players on the wire for any of the above?
    Covington
    Wes Matthews
    DeMarre Carroll
    Bogut
    Joe Johnson
    Ginobili
    Aminu
    Capella (love this kid and am compelled to roster him as a future keeper, but also trying to win this year)

    Thanks in advance!

    • dem ribbies says:
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      @dem ribbies: PS – this is a weekly roster league.

      Would you be inclined to deal Chandler once his stock rises a bit? I’ve been viewing him as an essential backup in the event Drummond or Jordan go down.

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @dem ribbies: Absolutely, man – that’s what we’re here for. Ask as many questions as you’d like, we’re always happy to answer.

      I hear ya on Capella – I love his upside but if Dwight can stay healthy and the Rox get both TJones and DMo back, there just aren’t going to be enough minutes in the front court rotation.

      Of the guys you mentioned on the wire, I’d have said Carroll for sure about five days ago…but plantar fasciitis is no joke and he’s not even travelling with the team, so I don’t know how close he is to returning. He’s a tough guy and I bet he’ll try to play prior to being 100% and that could dog him all season. Covington is obviously a high-upside guy but two of the things he does really well (points and FT%) are things you’re punting, so he’s not a great fit. Aminu might be worth a look, but I’m not sure I like him quite enough to part with a guy like McConnell just yet…in a couple weeks once Marshall &/or Wroten are close to returning, I’d make that swap, but for the time being, maybe just stand pat.

      And to your other comment – Chandler is a pretty good player for your build. He’s going to give you high FG%, nice boards and blocks, but he’s not going to light up the scoring column and will struggle to hit 70% from the charity stripe. I’d hold him as an insurance policy, like you said.

  20. lb. sand says:
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    H2H 9 cat:
    Give Cp3 to get Griffin?
    Other PG’s owned: Bledsoe, K Walker, Pizza Guy, Clarkson
    Bigs owned: Gobert, Draymond, T. Harris, D. Carroll, R. Anderson, M. Leonard
    Thx

    • Matty

      Matty says:
      (link)

      @lb. sand: I wouldn’t. I’d rather have CP3 even though Blake is playing the best ball of his career so far.

      It’s close though because you could use both guys. Blake would be your best scoring big – by far – but your best assist guy is Bledsoe, who might get you six/game. (You do have Draymond to give you out-of-position dimes though, which is nice.)

      I still think that all things being equal (i.e. assuming both BG and CP3 are healthy from this point forward), Paul will be the more valuable asset at the end of the year…and probably by about 10 ranking spots, if I had to put a number on it.

  21. Raf says:
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    Nice job as usual, Matty.

    H2H 9-cat:

    PG Curry
    SG Oladipo
    G Beal
    SF Hayward
    PF Nowitzki
    F Markieff Morris
    C Horford
    C Monroe
    Util/BN Bazemore, Sullinger, Smart, McConnell, Aaron Gordon

    Notable FAs: Marvin Williams, Hood, Bjelica, Powell, Ezeli, Myles Turner, Galloway.

    I’ve been holding on to Gordon for upside (particularly blocks), but maybe it’s time to move on? Possibly could make other moves as well?

    Thoughts? Thanks a lot!

    • Matty

      Matty says:
      (link)

      @Raf: Thanks, Raf!

      Hmmm, there are some pretty good names in the FA pool, but there’s no must-swap options on your bench. Marvin is playing pretty well, Hood looks like he’ll have consistent value, Bjelica is the preferred first big off Minny’s bench, Powell & Ezeli have flashed some nice potential in 25’ish minutes a night, and Galloway is shooting the hell outta the ball. At least we can rule out Myles now that he’s busted up his hand, so that’s one option you can ignore!

      I’ve never been a big Marcus Smart fan, but he’s likely to get his starting job back once he’s 100% healthy, so the minutes should be there. Aaron Gordon, like you said, is tough to hold onto…but he just has that feeling of “as soon as I cut him, Tobias is going to get hurt and AG will be playing 30 minutes a night and setting the world on fire.” Scary guy to drop, but if things stay as they are, you almost have to.

      The top 3 FAs from the guys you listed, for me, are: Hood, Bjelica, Marvin (in that order)…but they’re close.

      The three guys I’d consider moving on from on your team currently are: Smart, Gordon, McConnell (only because his role/minutes aren’t likely to last more than another few weeks)

      • Raf says:
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        @Matty: Thanks a ton!

  22. Trul says:
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    I will accept brolo+monta vs gobert offer. What do u think?

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @Trul: Gobert is easily the best player in that deal.

      Monta doesn’t seem like he’s going to be a huge part of the Pacers’ offense and we now have nine games to base that off, so it’s not a big sample size, but it’s enough to get a good feel for what his role is going to be. This is Paul George’s show and Monta is only Monta if he has the ball in his hands. I wouldn’t want to own him in fantasy this year. BroLo, on the other hand, can post some really nice lines…but I don’t want any part of big guys who have a history of foot or knee injuries. Things can go south really quickly and I’d just rather not have that dark cloud hanging over my head all season.

      Give me Gobert instead of Monta/Brook.

  23. Zebo says:
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    Henson, Sullinger, or Capela? 9 cat, h2h. Thanks.

    • Matty

      Matty says:
      (link)

      @Zebo: Man, all these requests for Henson vs Capela! Ha. There’s not a ton separating them, except for the fact that Clint has a lot of competition for minutes starting to get healthy (i.e. Dwight, TJones, DMo) so it’s tough to predict that his role is going to grow. On the flip side, Henson has the Kidd hurdle to clear. I think playing the schedule for density is the way to go between these two – starting on November 23rd Milwaukee has 4-game weeks 7 out of 8 which is a lot of games where Henson could be usable. For contrast, during that same stretch, Capela and the Rockets have four 4-game weeks. It’s as good a tie-breaker as you’re going to get for guys that have uncertain roles currently.

      I strongly encourage you to go with your gut and pick the guy you think is going to have the clearest path to 20 minutes/night. It’s just “best guess” at this point with a lot of variables that could change game to game.

  24. Ghislain says:
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    Hi all,

    So although I’m riding the Hassan wave and don’t think it will dry out anytime soon, my team i sin bad need of better FT, 3PT, Stls. I think I have to depart wit Whiteside but I’m not sure who to ask for. Who would you say is a good one-one trade, Dray. Green, KAT, C.Bosh, G. Hayward? Or any other I’m not seeing?

    Thanks for your input!

    • Matty

      Matty says:
      (link)

      @Ghislain: For the categories you need, the best option of the guys you listed is going to be Gordon Hayward…and since he has started the season a bit slow, you might just be able to get him for Hassan straight up. I’d send that offer out and see if it works. I don’t think you can get Draymond one-for-one, he’s just too valuable. I would prefer KAT, but he’s not going to really help you THAT much over Hassan in 3s or steals. His FT shooting will be better though. Bosh might be worth a look as he’s hit a three in every game so far this year and he’s taking close to 5/game. His FT% is solidly in the 80s and he’s averaging an even 1.0 steals per game…so he would help you out in the categories where you need it. I’d rank those players: Draymond, Hayward, Bosh, KAT for your purposes. And I’d send Hassan away straight up for all of them.

      • Ghislain says:
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        @Matty: Alright thanks for the advice, ill try these and see if it works out.

  25. Worlds First Analrapist says:
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    Hey Matty, great write up!

    I need another PF/C for my punt FT% strategy. I am targeting Mason Plumlee on a guard needy team. How would you rank Jarret Jack, Mo Williams, and Lou Williams ROS?

    Thanks in advance

    • Matty

      Matty says:
      (link)

      @Worlds First Analrapist: Thanks, WFA!

      Rest of season I have those guys: Mo Williams, Jarrett Jack, Lou Williams. I think Lou will be mired in an ugly backcourt rotation all year. Mo should be great for another 4-6 weeks and then he’ll be “just ok” as his minutes drop into the 20s. And Jack is just going to be Jack until he gets traded somewhere that cuts his minutes in half and kills his value.

      Plumdog looks like a good punt-FT% target, especially now that Meyers is out for a while with the dislocated shoulder. That’s one less guy in the frontcourt rotation and Mason seems to be earning Stotts’ trust a bit more each game. Go get him!

  26. Scott says:
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    with Turners injury trouble, drop him for Hill or Cauley-Stein?

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @Scott: If you need points and boards, go with Hill…if you need the defensive stats, go with WCS. (Also – WCS has the higher upside since things don’t look so great in Sacto and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cousins finish the season in a uniform that says something other than “Kings” on it.)

  27. Tyler says:
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    Hey Matty,
    What do you think about these trades? 9cat h2h deep league redraft

    1. Conley Jabari for Holiday Mirotic
    2. Conley Bartin for Holiday Mirotic
    3. Conley StanJo for Holiday Mirotic
    4. Conley Jabari StanJo for Holiday Mirotic Marvin Williams
    5. Conley Jabari Barton for Holiday Mirotic Marvin Williams

    • Matty

      Matty says:
      (link)

      @Tyler:

      I think I’d lean towards the Holiday/Mirotic side in all of them, to be honest. I’m pretty excited about what Jrue could do in this offense once he has the leash taken off of him…just look at the numbers Ish flippin’ Smith is posting with 30 MPG! Holiday could be a monster during the 2016 portion of this season. I also think Mirotic is going to get his act together and be the player we all (most) thought he was going to be. He’s just in a slump, but like a Danny Green, once the deep balls start going through, his confidence will come back and the minutes and production will trend upwards to the point where he’s pushing top-50’ish value.

      Conley and the Grizzlies in general are pretty much an avoid for me. They look bad. Really bad. Old, slow, hobbled. I just don’t like that team for fantasy purposes, which is too bad because I really like Conley as an individual player. I wish he was on a different team running a different system.

      • Tyler says:
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        @Matty:
        how would you rank these players outlook:
        Jabari
        Barton
        StanJo

  28. Jordo says:
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    I’m considering using a waiver claim on Bjelica. Good idea?

    12team 8 cat (no t/o) H2H
    Wall
    Lowry
    Batum
    Ibaka
    Horford
    Jefferson
    DeRozan
    TJones
    Marvin Williams
    Crowder
    D. McDermott
    IR Stashes: Tyreke Evans, Brandon Jennings

    FA Notables: Bjelica, Schroder, Lavine, Bayless,, Cauley-Smith

    • Jordo says:
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      @Jordo:
      Oops, meant Cauley-Stein, also J. Lamb and N. Young.

    • Matty

      Matty says:
      (link)

      @Jordo: Yep – I’d grab Bjelica and dump McDermott. Word is that Dunleavy could be back in as little as two weeks and then it’s a three-way timeshare on the wing between Mike, Doug and Tony. Not a situation I’d want to be a part of owning.

      I’d also prefer Schroder to Brandon Jennings, but obviously it’s not just an open “utility” spot, so you can’t simply swap them out, right? Jennings has to stay on IR until he returns to play, correct? If that’s the case, I’d give some consideration to Schroder in place of Marvin Williams.

  29. Jordo says:
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    Thanks for the advice, Matty.
    Right, I can’t drop Jennings for Schroder, so Starvin Marvin would be the play.

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