Jump Ball A Matty Series PNG

Previous “Jump Ball” articles:

9/19 – Russell Westbrook v Damian Lillard

9/26 – Kawhi Leonard v Jimmy Butler

10/2 – Blake Griffin v Serge Ibaka

10/7 – Andrew Wiggins v Gordon Hayward

TALE OF THE TAPE

EMMANUEL MUDIAY D’ANGELO RUSSELL
Denver Nuggets Team Los Angeles Lakers
PG Position (Y! Eligibility) PG
2014 Results
N/A 9-Cat Rank (Total Value) N/A
N/A 9-Cat Rank (Per Game) N/A
12 (China) Games Played 35 (NCAA)
31.5 Minutes Per Game 33.9
N/A Usage Rate (Rank) N/A

THE CASE FOR EMMANUEL MUDIAY

It’s no easy task projecting players who have never played an NBA game. It’s far more difficult when the same two have faced competition on separate continents in the year leading up to being drafted. But such is the task we are faced with here as we look to determine whether Emmanuel Mudiay or D’Angelo Russell will put forward a more fantasy-friendly rookie campaign.

Emmanuel Mudiay took a far from traditional route to the NBA. Born in Kinshasa, Zaire (now the Democratic Republic of Congo), the primarily French speaking youngster fled the war-torn Congo and sought asylum in the US in 2001, eventually settling in Texas where he played prep ball and committed to the SMU Mustangs for the 2014 season. Instead of honoring that commitment, Mudiay hopped on a plane and joined the Guangdong Southern Tigers on a one-year, $1.2M contract. Unfortunately injuries shortened his first professional season and he was only able to suit up for 12 games, posting averages of 18.0 points, 6.3 rebounds, 5.9 assists, and 1.6 steals in 31.5 minutes per game – numbers that suggest a high fantasy ceiling if he packed them in his suitcase and brought them to America. Mudiay was also able to chip in 13 made 3-pointers in those 12 games along with a FG% of .478.

The 19-year old point guard was drafted by Denver 7th overall and had the starting job presented to him on a silver platter following the Nuggets decision to jettison Ty Lawson in July. So far through four preseason contests, Mudiay has parlayed that starting gig into a 29.2 usage rate (15th highest among all players appearing in at least four games) at a pace of 104.1 possessions per 48 minutes. (For reference, the league-leading Golden State Warriors ran at a pace of 100.7 last year.) With very capable running mates in Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler and Kenneth Faried, the opportunity is most certainly there for Emmanuel Mudiay to generate Rookie of the Year-worthy numbers under the guidance of new coach, Mike Malone. With his international professional experience and a steadying mentor presence of 11-year veteran Jameer Nelson, the NBA stage shouldn’t seem too daunting and I fully expect Mudiay to post top-100 fantasy value.

THE CASE FOR D’ANGELO RUSSELL

In contrast to the high minutes and usage that can reasonably be projected for Emmanuel Mudiay in Denver, D’Angelo Russell enters an absolute fustercluck of a Los Angeles Lakers backcourt rotation. Breakout player Jordan Clarkson, future Hall of Famer Kobe Bryant, reigning 6th Man of the Year Lou Williams, and never-met-a-shot-he-didn’t-like swingman Nick Young are all vying for minutes, touches and shots on the perimeter.

That being said, competition and complementary ball-handlers are not necessarily a bad thing for a rookie point guard. With less defensive attention and the opportunity to more gradually acclimate to the NBA game, D’Angelo Russell should produce better efficiency numbers than his “Jump Ball” counterpart. Over the course of 35 college games at Ohio State, Russell bested Mudiay’s CBA numbers in 3-point FG%, FT% and had fewer turnovers per game (in higher minutes, to boot). Expect that trend to continue as Russell shares the usage burden with ball-dominant players like the aforementioned Bryant and Williams. Through four preseason games, Russell has improved on a lackluster Summer League showing by posting a PER of 19.6 (as compared to 8.6 for Mudiay) and has only turned the ball over four times in over 64 floor minutes (EM has 19 TOs in 114 minutes).

Look for head coach Byron Scott to ease his prized rookie into the true “lead guard” role during the first half of the season. As the Lakers inevitably fall out of playoff contention and attrition takes its toll, I can see D’Angelo Russell taking on more responsibility post-All Star break. With reports already flowing out of LA about Russell’s elite vision and floor generalship (it’s an actual word – I looked it up!) there is no reason to believe D’Angelo won’t be handed the reigns as the Lakers fully embrace their post-Kobe era youth movement. In an ideal world, Russell will be able to use his 40 or so games of experience to better handle higher usage which would allow reasonable efficiency to help offset the volume-related issues someone in Mudiay’s situation will likely face. Ultimately, D’Angelo Russell should be able to navigate the crowded Lakers backcourt landscape and contribute 9-category fantasy value worthy of selection in the eighth or ninth round (12-team leagues).

Let’s take a look at how these two players should stack up head-to-head for fantasy owners in 2015 looking to roll the dice on a high-upside rookie PG with a pick just inside the top-100 (* denotes my projected category winner):

EMMANUEL MUDIAY D’ANGELO RUSSELL
* Points  
* Rebounds  
* Assists  
* Steals  
* Blocks  
  FG% *
  FT% *
  TO *
  3PM *
5 Categories Won 4

JUMP BALL

As a large proponent of both pace and usage I have to lean towards Emmanuel Mudiay if I’m going to pull the trigger on a rookie point guard in 2015 fantasy drafts.

Both Mudiay and D’Angelo Russell are far from complete basketball players and both will struggle at times during their first NBA campaigns – that much is a given with most young men who have yet to enter their 20s. However, I take comfort in the fact that Mudiay has a far clearer path to minutes from the jump, while also playing for a coach who should run a faster tempo on offense and fully commit to cultivating his young talent. I am more than a little nervous that Byron Scott and the Lakers’ powers-that-be are just delusion enough to believe they can actually contend for a playoff spot in what could be Kobe Bryant’s NBA swan song. If that proves true and Russell struggles out of the gate (as he did mightily in Summer League), there are enough other proven options in LaLa Land to stymie the rookie’s development.

So if I’ve watched seven or eight rounds tick off my fantasy draft and am in need of a point guard, I may look to add someone like Emmanuel Mudiay. But I am only doing so if my team build to that point suggests I can absorb the efficiency deficiency of his stat set. The volume or “popcorn” numbers should be there, but understand that there will be a negative impact on your percentages and TOs. Around pick 100 there are no complete fantasy players left and it’s admittedly fun (at times) to own a rookie starter, so feel free to take a big home run cut at one of these two fellas, with slight favoritism to the Nuggets youngster.

 

Agree/disagree? Who is your choice when you’re on the clock? Feedback is always welcome, so please share your thoughts in the comments section below or come find me in the Twitterverse at @moneyballmatty. Cheers!

  1. CTMN says:
    (link)

    Yo Matty, which one of these 2 would you take in REL-type dynasty? And what kind of bidding range would you pay for them?

    • CTMN says:
      (link)

      @CTMN: These 2 as in the 2 in the article by the way.

    • Matty

      Matty says:
      (link)

      @CTMN: Hey CTMN – thanks for reading.

      In a dynasty league, I’m leaning towards Russell. The Lakers seem to be really high on his long-term prospects and once Kobe is out of the way, there will be a lot more offensive opportunities. I think there’s going to be quite a bit of excitement over a Russell/Clarkson backcourt by this time next year.

      Mudiay has a gnarly hitch in his shot that is going to have to get trained out of him if he ever hopes to be even a league average shooter at his position. He might be able to fix it over time or it could be something that dogs him his entire career.

      The only thing that could really derail D’Angelo Russell’s long-term value (outside of catastrophic injury, obviously) is if Russell Westbrook decides to move back to LA in a couple years once he’s a free agent…and I’ve read in a number of different places that that’s a very real possibility, despite being pure speculation at this point.

      Unfortunately I can’t really answer your second question about a bidding range as I haven’t been a part of an REL, and admittedly have never done an auction draft. Perhaps one of the other writers here (JB, Slim) could speak better to this?

      • CTMN says:
        (link)

        @Matty:
        I personally highly doubt that Westbrook would sign with the Lakers in his prime, I mean, he’s an LA type of guy but he’s too competitive to go to a rebuilding team.
        Oh my bad, I thought you were in the REL. Yah maybe JB/Adam/Slim can tell me that?

      • CTMN says:
        (link)

        @Matty: Yo Matty, bit of a funny coincidence, a spot just opened up in our league. Do you wanna take it? The league is just like the REL these guys are always talking about. I think it’ll be a lot of fun, so let me know if you’re interested!

      • CTMN says:
        (link)

        @Matty: Draft is Monday at 7pm eastern time, by the way.

        • Matty

          Matty says:
          (link)

          @CTMN: Hey man, thanks for the invite. I’d love to be a part of it but I’m not available Monday evening so I’d miss out on the draft. Probably best to leave it to someone who can attend that live and not have to auto-pick. Thanks again. Cheers.

          • CTMN says:
            (link)

            @Matty: Ok no problem, thanks anyway.

    • Adam

      Adam says:
      (link)

      @CTMN: In the REL, DeAngelo went for $30. I think that’s a touch on the low side, but pretty close (I didn’t have the budget left to go after him). He definitely has the skillset to be a superstar, and likely, the best long-term option.

      As for Westy moving back to LA, that seems highly unlikely at the moment, and regardless, he should be able to function well with other stars, given his propensity to share the ball.

      Matty made a great point about Mudiay’s form. I’m surprised he’s shooting as well as he is this preseason.

      Hope that helps!

      • CTMN says:
        (link)

        @Adam: Yeah it does, thanks. What do you think of Mudiay’s dynasty value? Similar to Russell?

        • Adam

          Adam says:
          (link)

          @CTMN: Mudiay went for a buck more in the REL, but that was as much the product of a bidding war, as opposed to him being more valuable. Personally, I think Russell, has a much higher ceiling, but they should both turn out to be very good players.

          Russell reminds me a lot of Harden. Harden is a bit bigger and more physical, but a lot of the movements are similar, as well as the similar great passing abilities. Plus their shooting form is similar as well. The sky is really the limit for Russell long-term. He has a great work ethic, and Kobe as a mentor, so I think he’ll pan out.

          • CTMN says:
            (link)

            @Adam: Yeah I agree, Russell and Harden definitely have some similarities, and Harden was basically a point guard in college when I saw him play.
            I guess auction drafts always depend on the situation, so I’ll see how to goes. Definitely willing to go for either of them though.

  2. kai says:
    (link)

    great article. love the deep cut rather than the top 20 comparison.

    • Matty

      Matty says:
      (link)

      @kai: Thanks, man. Appreciate it. I’m going to try to get at least one more done before the season starts as I know a lot of folks wait until the last few days to draft their teams. I have a few ideas on who to pit against each other and I’d love to hear feedback/preferences – options:

      1) Valanciunas v Gortat
      2) Monroe v Faried
      3) Beal v Derozan
      4) Burks v McCollum
      5) MCW v Rondo
      6) Robin Lopez v Chandler (both on new teams, so could be interesting)

      • kai says:
        (link)

        @Matty:

        great ideas!
        I like 1) Valanciunas v Gortat or 4) Burks v McCollum

  3. Joe says:
    (link)

    Who would you keep – pick 1 – from the following (I’ve put respective keeper costs next to their name) in a 10-team league?

    1. Marc Gasol: keeper cost round 3 pick (#29)
    2. JJ Redick: keeper cost round 8 (#72)
    3. George Hill: keeper cost round 9 (#89)
    4. Isiaiah Thomas: keeper cost round 9 pick (#89)
    5. Khris Middleton: keeper cost round 10 (#92)

    • kai says:
      (link)

      @Joe:

      Thomas and Middleton for sure
      then, I’d probably go Gasol (because i like to lock up a good player and that’s fair value). Hill is probably better value, but i’d just be afraid of missing out on the solids.

      don’t keep redick

    • Matty

      Matty says:
      (link)

      @Joe: Isaiah Thomas only costing you a 9th rounder is the way to go as far as I’m concerned. Gasol is worth the 3rd, but the value is just too good for IT2 as I think he has a monster year in Beantown. Not unlike the Bulls, the depth of the Celts is in the frontcourt and I don’t think the trio of Smart/Bradley/Turner are going to be able to keep Thomas from flirting with 30mpg, whether as a starter or off the bench and closing games. I think he has top-30 upside with a pretty decent floor, so your return on investment should be handsome.

  4. dom says:
    (link)

    good stuff. I think health should be a category added for Jump Ball. So Mudiay had some injuries; were they freak accident or predictive stuff?

    Lillard was given a nod healthwise over Westbrook on Jump Ball, what about Ibaka vs Griffin? Does Ibaka have more health risk than Blake?

    • Matty

      Matty says:
      (link)

      @dom: Thanks, dom. Glad you liked the piece.

      Is your suggestion that I should add a category where I list the injuries (and time missed) accumulated to date for players – a medical chart of sorts? Or are you looking more for who I would prefer based on qualifying a “proneness” to injury for each player?

      I can’t really do the latter very accurately simply because I believe that every player who steps on an NBA court during live action is, by definition, prone to injury. Style of play factors in, of course, but even for a guy like Russ Westbrook who plays like a bat outta hell for 35 minutes a night, it’s impossible to predict with any accuracy how likely he is to play 82 games. Up until Pat Beverly took that run at him in the playoffs, RW had never missed a game dating back to HIGH SCHOOL. Now, in the last two years, he’s missed time with a busted hand, busted face, dinged up knees.

      There are absolutely guys that I will avoid (like Derrick Rose because he will milk every injury for all it’s worth and just doesn’t heal quickly, or Brook Lopez because I don’t trust 7 footers with a history of foot issues), but as a general rule I just don’t get involved in injury prediction or degrees of proneness.

      Hope that’s fair and that I’m explaining myself well enough there. It’s a tricky topic and I’ve seen people talk like they have a crystal ball (“No way I’m drafting _____________, he’s guaranteed to miss at least __________ games.”)…and that just doesn’t make sense to me.

      • dom says:
        (link)

        @Matty: I know that in baseball the #1 predictor of future injuries are number of past injuries. And obviously not all injuries are equal, a tweaked groin is nowhere as serious as plantar fasciitis. So maybe just a quick thing summing up injury history.

        After these injuries do you think Westbrook is any more likely to miss time than current ironmen Lillard/Wall?

        • Matty

          Matty says:
          (link)

          @dom: Well, let’s put it this way – I’ve had multiple “significant” knee injuries. I’m far from a doctor, but I don’t think medically I’m at any greater risk of injury than the guy guarding me in my morning basketball league who has been blessed with 30 years of healthy joints. That being said, I know I’m more cognizant of it and I adjust my play because I will do everything in my power to avoid re-injury and missed time while still being able to play the game I love.

          So while I hold firm that a 100% healthy Westbrook entering the season is at equal health risk as a 100% healthy Wall/Lillard, I would use past injury history as a tie-breaker or “coin flip” of sorts if I was projecting very similar numbers for all those guys. So Russ would fall behind despite not having any confidence in my ability to project health (or lack thereof).

          I think maybe that’s a non-answer answer. (It is election day up here in Canada, so I’m harnessing my inner politician by semi-dodging the question! Ha.)

  5. Michael says:
    (link)

    A bit off topic.

    Where would you rank Blake Griffin, Isaiah Thomas, and Andrew Wiggins in a 10 cat roto league which includes FTM? And would you consider Westbrook over C.Paul because of his strong FTM’s? Its a 10 team league with 10 cat roto (FTM)

    THanks

    • Matty

      Matty says:
      (link)

      @Michael: Well, Blake could theoretically get a pretty big bump due to FTM if he stays healthy. Two seasons ago he played 80 games and hit nearly 500 FTs. That being said, his attempts per game fell a full two shots last season which was mitigated a bit by an improved percentage. So far this pre-season Blake looks an awful like the 2014/2015 version which doesn’t scream “more aggressive.” So your best bet is to hope he maintains 6.5ish FTAs per game but can bump his percentage up to .750. He should still be a top-20 asset in that format, but I’m not taking him in the first round.

      IT2 got to the line nearly as often last year in almost 9 minutes less per game than the previous season. He also was among the league leaders in percentage at .868 (not even a career-high, so sustainable). If Thomas is given close to 30mpg, he gets a big bump with his ability to get to the line and make them count. I’d look for him in the top-50 for sure in that format.

      I’m not sure what to expect from Wiggins really. Maybe he gets more aggressive from his rookie year, maybe he doesn’t. The Wolves are presumably going to have more healthy bodies this year and a more balanced roster. That should balance a natural progression for Wiggins and maybe he eclipses 6.0 FTAs/game. But he’d better shoot it better than he did in the FIFA Americas tourney this summer, where he missed a number of key freebies (IIRC he was 30/44 from the line) Wiggins maybe gets a small bump in leagues with FTM, but not a huge one.

  6. Connor says:
    (link)

    Really like these articles. Now to completely derail the conversation: our league is letting us rank our preferred draft order, and then some system is gonna poop them out. So how would you rank them in a 10 team league?

    • Matty

      Matty says:
      (link)

      @Connor: Yeah, man, it’s the Kentucky Derby System – I use the same thing in my big money league and it’s great. Set your preferences and hope that your name gets pulled early or that the other owners prefer different spots. Normally everyone in the league is pretty happy with the draft spot they get from my experience.

      I play 12-teamers so it might change a bit, but I like drafting on the corners. So 1st or 12th (in your case 10th) are my top two choices. It eliminates the guesswork of “will he or won’t he make it back to me?” which can be a big bonus. The downside is that there are LOOOOONG runs of picks where you see some of your favorite guys fall off the board one after another after another. Drafting in the middle of the pack typically affords you the opportunity to pounce on value players who have dropped 6-8 picks farther than you’d think…at least in the first handful of rounds before ADP gets thrown out the window.

      If you have a no-doubter top pick, place #1 as your top preference and don’t think twice about it. If not and you want to snag an elite big and PG, toss #10 in there and you’ll be laughin’ after you score two elite guys. If you just want to take best player available through round five or six, I’d advise a mid-pick.

      Hope that helps and good luck!

  7. Matty & anyone else with some good advice

    I’ve got a live auction next weekend, 18 dudes in a conference room, imagine the smells….keepers are due tomorrow and I’m thinking of one last offer to a guy.

    18 teams, keeper with salaries, h2h fpts
    Points 1
    Treys 4
    Rebs 1.7
    Ast 3
    Stl 4.4
    Blk 6.5

    You can keep up to 4 players, you subtract their value from $200 and that’s what you have to draft with, you then use that cash to fill out your first 8 roster spots, then we snake for 5 rounds to complete a 13 man roster….. Almost all elite players are kept.

    As of now I’m keeping James Harden $56, OLADIPO $53, Greg Monroe $31 and Robert Covington $10……. So that’s $150 total and I have $50 to buy 4 then snake……

    Would you rather go in with those 4 & $50 which won’t get me a lot OR

    harden, Greg Monroe, Covington and a $9 Danny green, which gives me $84…..

    I’d have to move OLADIPO for Danny, saves me a lot, enough to buy two decent players or one really good player (they go about $50-60 if available) the question is do you see OLADIPO if not this year the next just going into elite status? And can you ever see Danny green as much more than he is? A glue guy who chips in everywhere? Man I’d hate to move Dipo and he’s just a beast, his upside is huge in my eyes, but more money and a steady Danny green ?

    I can’t decide

    Again it’s fantasy points so all the percentages etc mean nothing! Straight fantasy points off the numbers above…….

    Trade my $53 Dipo for a $9 Danny Green?

    • Matty

      Matty says:
      (link)

      @Trophy Tony: Cool format. I would absolutely move Oladipo for Danny Green given the dollar savings and premium placed on 3s and defensive stats. If Green replicates his stats from last year, you’re looking at 9.6 points from 3PMs, 5.3 points from steals, and 7.2 points from blocks – that’s huge for you.

      Then I would look to take that extra $44 and try to snag some guys who give you blocks (your only big – Monroe – doesn’t offer anything there unfortunately). Look for maybe a John Henson, Brandan Wright or even Willie Cauley-Stein (if he’s given the starting gig).

      Good luck in your draft this weekend. Maybe take a bottle of Febreeze to help counteract those smells!

  8. Oops my bad with my math! I’d have $94 if I got Danny G! That’s a good amount……

    • Matty

      Matty says:
      (link)

      @Trophy Tony: Pull the trigger. As much as I like Oladipo this year (and think Skiles will help him bump his defensive numbers), Danny Green plus the auction dollars is way too good to pass up there.

      • @Matty: it’s total fpts so Dipo projects out at maybe 55-58 on average per game and Danny green is like a 45 fpts a night guy? I’m not looking to fill cats, whether my big man blocks or not it doesn’t matter, all about those fantasy points!

        And it’s a long term keeper does that change your mind at all?

        Deadline in 5 hours! Thanks man

        • Matty

          Matty says:
          (link)

          @Trophy Tony: I don’t think that changes my mind, no. I’d still swap out ‘Dipo for Danny plus the extra money to play with during the auction. I have to think you can find at least that 10 or so points that you’re projecting between VO & DG with $44, and likely much more (especially if you don’t have to worry about targeting specific cats – just go spend on a guy you think can blow up in a points league like this). Green will be money in that format and it wouldn’t surprise me to see modest improvements in his numbers from last year given Manu’s age and the departure of Belinelli. The Spurs don’t have much on the wing, so DG might have a shot at 30MPG (or roughly another 1-2 minutes on top of last year’s 28.5).

          Good luck!

  9. Landisimo3 says:
    (link)

    Matty, 10 team H2H defending champ here… Get to keep 2 players drafted AFTER the 4th round last year… (Losing that corresponding draft pick this year/ and 1 round sooner each year after)

    1 is obvious … Draymond ( I lose my 12th rounder!)

    Who do I go 2nd?

    Oladipo (I’d lose my 6th)
    Pau Gasol (7th)
    Giannis (9th)

    Thank you!

    • Matty

      Matty says:
      (link)

      @Landisimo3: Yep, Dray is a no-brainer if only costing you a 12th. And he’s such a well-rounded, multi-cat contributor that you can pair just about anyone with him for a solid foundation to build off of.

      Of the three remaining I’d eliminate Giannis. I just don’t think he’s going to be a top-50 player with Kidd as coach and so many other options in MIL (especially once Parker is back).

      So it’d be a near tossup between Oladipo and Pau. I think they’re headed in opposite directions with Pau’s arrow pointing slightly down due to CHI depth and Thib’s departure, and Oladipo’s pointing up with Skiles helping to maximize his defensive potential and him getting some backup PG minutes behind Elfrid. Gun to my head, I’m picking Oladipo and am pretty happy to have he and Draymond paired together to start my team.

  10. Beards says:
    (link)

    Love your articles.
    Quick question, would you trade porter (mine) for deangelo? This is a 12 team h2h keeper league. We can keep rookies for up to 5 years.

    Thanks!

    • Matty

      Matty says:
      (link)

      @Beards: Thanks, Beards. Appreciate you reading and hopefully the articles help you out on draft day.

      Geez, that’s a tough one. Both Porter and D’Angelo are right around that top-100 this year for me. Porter’s defensive goodies are tough to pass up and if he develops with increased minutes and opportunity, he could form a really nice “Big 3” in Washington with Wall & Beal. But there’s the very real possibility that Durant goes home to the Wiz in a year and takes a huge chunk of SF/PF minutes. That’s obviously pure speculation, but it would have a negative affect on Porter’s value as a keeper.

      D’Angelo on the other hand looks to have a situation that will clear out in front of him in a year or two. No more Kobe and likely no more Nick Young after this year (especially if Byron Scott hangs around as coach) makes it a pretty solid rotation of Russell/Clarkson with Lou Will off the bench. You could be looking at a lower finish this year, but value improvements over Porter for four years after that.

      I’d lean towards Russell and just make sure you exercise some patience this year as the rook will struggle on nights when Porter drops a couple treys and has four swipes.

  11. TheJohn says:
    (link)

    have dirk… should i trade for r anderson?

    • Matty

      Matty says:
      (link)

      @TheJohn: Yep. LOVE Ryno this year. The Pellies are paper thin in the frontcourt (and backcourt actually…) with Asik, Ajinca already hurt and limited even when healthy. Anderson could get back to that 2.5 3PMs range with minutes around 30 per game, especially since Gentry will improve the tempo. I can see him pulling down 6+ boards and scoring in the mid-teens while also posting elite FT% (albeit not heavily weighted). A top-75 finish is well within reach, though I haven’t seen him ranked there by anyone so I appear to be far more bullish on him than most.

      I think Dirk falls outside the top-100 as his minutes and usage continue to decline. Percentages will remain stellar but he’s just not going to have the volume and the Mavs as a team are mostly an avoid for me. Question marks at nearly every position due to health and depth, so I don’t see them really playing for much unless Wes, Chandler and Deron ALL sail under a lucky star and contribute 60-70 healthy, high-quality games.

      • TheJohn says:
        (link)

        @Matty: thanks matt!! Very helpful just the rank is scary when is thjnk abt it…

        Am also lagging guard… Wht about my pau gasol for ryno and hayward… Am lacking guard extremely… Or that is just pure dumb…

        Thanks!!

        • Matty

          Matty says:
          (link)

          @TheJohn: Don’t worry about ranks – they are good for general valuation of players (for draft and trade proposal purposes), but ultimately the only ranking that matters is your own.

          That being said, I would do Pau for Hayward straight up whether you were guard deficient or not. I think with so much depth in CHI, Pau sees a decent reduction in minutes and opportunity and could drop outside the top-30 by season’s end. Hayward on the other hand has a chance to join the Jimmy/Klay/Kawhi tier of wings if everything breaks right in Utah. I mentioned in my “Jump Ball” article featuring Hayward that I thought a 20/5/5 season was within reach, plus he’s going to give you some 3s and steals and ~82% from the FT line with decent weight.

          So if you can get Ryno thrown into a Pau for Hayward trade, jump all over that!

          • TheJohn says:
            (link)

            @Matty: thanks matt!! hope its a good one!

  12. booya says:
    (link)

    Drafted my 12 team H2H 9 cat team last night. Went with major stars and scrubs approach but unfortunately I missed a good portion of the draft. Here is what I came out with:
    PG Collison
    SG Clarkson
    G Lawson
    SF Durant
    PF Brow
    F Aaron Gordon
    C Leonard
    C Hibbert
    Util Stanley Johnson
    Util Ilyasova
    BN Rondo
    BN Julius Randle
    BN Rodney Hood

    What do you think my best strategy is from here with these guys? Which 5-6 categories do you think I should focus on and which should I punt if any? Any trades I need to seek out?

    Prozingis and Tony Parker went undrafted…should I drop Hood and someone for those two?

    Appreciate any input!

    • Matty

      Matty says:
      (link)

      @booya: First of all – Brow AND Durant?!?! Dang. You could have a fantasy roster that boasts the top two overall players if both can stay healthy. That’s pretty remarkable. Kudos on that.

      To the rest of the roster – I’m not a huge Lawson fan, though I do think he’ll be serviceable this year. Both Clarkson and Collison are nice pieces who I’m pretty high on this year, but they need some help by way of injury or trade to their backcourt running mates if they’re going to max out their potential and value. I have a feeling they’ll be more valuable post-ASB than during the first couple months of the season, so I recommend exercising patience with them and not selling low if they start out with some lackluster lines.

      You’ve got a couple pretty good breakout candidates in your frontcourt in guys like Gordon, Leonard and StanJo. If two of those three hit, you’re sitting pretty.

      You’re a bit light on assists unless you plan on having Rondo active because Lawson won’t see the usage he did in Denver. You’re pretty solid in all other categories with 3s maybe a tad weak (depends on how much Leonard and Ilyasova can contribute out of position numbers for you).

      I think hanging onto Hood for his upside is worth it if your two best options on the wire are Parker and Zinger. I’d hold pretty firm with that roster and see if you’re routinely outperforming opponents in percentages, defensive cats, blocks and boards. If so, I wouldn’t worry about chasing guard stats (ASTs/3s).

      Nice job! Best of luck to ya this season.

      • booya says:
        (link)

        @Matty: Thanks Matt! One other factor I forgot to mention is that its a daily league with 3 move limit per week. Does that change any of your thoughts?

  13. Matty

    Matty says:
    (link)

    Nah, no change in that format. From my understanding (not experience, since I’ve always been an 8-cat roto player) it’s very difficult to stream assists, so I wouldn’t chase that stat with your daily moves. I’d just look to ensure you’re in position to take down percentages, defensive stats, and boards. You should be just fine in TOs since outside of Brow & KD, you don’t have many high usage players. You have a legit shot at owning 7 of 9 categories against a lot of your H2H opponents – focus in on that and see where it takes you after the first few weeks.

  14. Abe Frobman says:
    (link)

    I believe you asked readers what they thought might make for a good article. I have Gobert, Noel and Faried on my team which means i am punting free throws if they don’t right that ship or can possibly stream FT’s if they are high volume shooters with good % out there on the wire and playing an opponent who is weaker in Blocks and Boards so i can sit one of the beasts. I think streaming FT% is something most people don’t think about it and i am in sort of an odd situation where i have a slew of big men whom i can bench at times and possibly still win boards and blocks while having a chance to win FT% if I just make a smart move or two during the week.

Comments are closed.