Alright, so actual Fat Tuesday doesn’t shake down in New Orleans for another couple weeks, but with a robust eight games on the NBA docket, it was a fitting – and catchy – title, so I decided to stick with it. (“Robust Tuesday” just doesn’t roll off the tongue the same way, ya know?) We typically only get a handful of games on a given Tuesday, but the schedule makers decided to give League Pass subscribers a real workout this week. Games started at 7pm and didn’t wrap up until well after midnight on the East Coast. In the middle of it all was an overtime thriller at the Mecca.

The Knickerbockers of New York, absent Carmelo Anthony, were able to withstand a pair of fat (Tuesday) lines from Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook for much of the night. Despite a combined 74 points from the Thunder’s dynamic duo (KD poured in 44, Russ 30), the Madison Square Garden audience was treated to some bonus basketball, though the Knicks ultimately came up just short in the 53rd minute. New York shared the scoring burden as they had five different players contribute between 15 and 21 points: Kristaps Porzingis (15), Lance Thomas (16), Aaron Afflalo (17), Derrick Williams (19), Langston Galloway (21).

Durant supplemented his scoring barrage with 14 boards, five dimes, a steal, and four 3-pointers. A healthy Durantula is the second most valuable asset in fantasy basketball. It’s just that simple. I don’t care what format you’re playing or how many categories you’re counting, if I’m not getting Steph Curry in return, I’m not parting with KD right now.

Kevin’s running mate, Russell Westbrook, had himself quite the ballgame as well: 13-of-24 from the field, eight rebounds, 10 helpers and three steals complemented his 30-point outing quite nicely. Picky owners can find fault in his five turnovers or failure to connect from long range, but overall Westbrook is an absolute stat stuffer and you probably only need one hand to count the number of players more valuable than him moving forward.

Meanwhile, outside of the Big Apple…

 

THE GOOD

Archie Goodwin – More like Archie Goodloss, amirite? Cuz…his numbers were good…but his team lost…get it? Nevermind. 26/6/6/2/0 on 11-15 shooting, including a trey. He’s a must start guy (until Brandon Knight comes back) in just about any format, but especially DFS while his salary struggles to catch up with his opportunity and production.

Nerlens Noel – The perfect formula for Noel seems to be lots of Ish Smith and not so much Jahlil Okafor. That’s exactly what he got on Tuesday as the latter missed the game with an illness and both Nerlens and Ish saw over 30 minutes of run. Noel responded with an efficient offensive game (14 points on 5-7 FGs, 4-4 FTs) and a defensive gem (nine rebounds, three swats, three swipes).

Chris Paul – CP3 was up to his usual tricks with 26/6/7/1/0 on 11-21 shooting, connecting four times from distance. The Clippers need him to be nothing short of consistently great to stay in the Western Conference playoff picture and that’s exactly what he’s been. There’s no reason to think he’ll slow down and you’re not letting him go for anyone outside the top-10.

Paul George – PG13 quelled any fears over swelling in his surgically repaired leg, posting 31/11/3/1/1 with a pair of threes and good percentages (12-23 FGs, 5-6 FTs). In a true 9-cat gem, George only turned the ball over once in his 38 minutes of floor time. He won’t be this efficient most nights, but if he can stay healthy and continue to make strides in his shot selection and ball protection, he could reclaim the first round value that he was returning over the first month of the season.

Dwyane Wade – Sore shoulders, sore shmoulders. A beauty of a line for Wade against the Nets: 27/4/8/3/2 including a perfect 5-5 from the charity stripe. If he’s active for the Heat, he’s active for your fantasy team.

Otto Porter Jr. – In one of the more understated quality lines of the night, OPJ put up 15 points, eight boards, four steals and a three. He had nary a turnover while also shooting 7-11 from the field. I would rather own Porter than his oft-injured, but more heralded teammate, Bradley Beal for the rest of the season.

Kyle Lowry – It was all good for K-Low (29/4/4/2/0 with five 3-pointers) right up until the waning moments of the game where he got caught up on a screen and had his left (non-shooting) wrist bent awkwardly. He ran immediately to the locker room and had x-rays taken, which thankfully came back negative. He’ll likely be dealing with some swelling and sorenss, so he could very well miss Thursday’s primetime matchup (on TNT) with the Knicks. Cory Joseph doesn’t sport a game that will ever set the world on fire, but he is fairly efficient and would be a solid source of assists if he’s thrust into a starter’s role.

Giannis Antetokounmpo – Big game for Alphabet on Tuesday as he dropped 25 points on 16 shots. Nine boards, two assists, two steals and a block rounded out his line and he was a big part of the reason the Bucks held off the Magic in Milwaukee.

Khris Middleton – The Duchess, much like his Freakish Greekish teammate, was up to the task on Tuesday. A perfect 11-11 mark from the FT line helped Middleton get to 25 points to go along with five rebounds, seven dimes, a steal and two triples. He is working his way towards the top-30 players in January and his slow start to the season is a distant memory.

Willie Cauley-Stein – It was an ugly night for most of the Sacramento Kings, but WCS found some success in Portland. 12/7/1/1/4 on 5-8 shooting with no turnovers is a nice, efficient line. Any time Rudy Gay and/or Omri Casspi miss time, Willie is going to be worth playing as he’s proven to be a double-double threat with some defensive goodies in ~30 minutes per game.

J.J. Barea – Even though the Mavericks won in Los Angeles, there wasn’t much to write home about statistically. Jose Juan had a nice little game off the bench with 18/4/4/1/0 in 28 minutes. He picked up a bit of extra run (28 minutes), in part because Devin Harris is out and in part because the Lakers are running two smaller guards more often than not. JJB hasn’t been worth a roster spot in 2016, but if any more of the Mavericks’ guards need to miss time he could be a cheap source of points, dimes, steals and threes.

Jordan Clarkson – Unfortunately there were no defensive stats to round out JC’s line, but 18/6/7 with a pair of threes in 37 minutes is pretty nice. With Kobe Bryant likely to be in the active lineup less and less as the season wears on, Clarkson stands to benefit and could very well go on a post-ASB tear.

 

THE BAD

Tyson Chandler – After pulling down a combined 61 (!) rebounds in his past three games, you’d expect Chandler to grab more than just five against an undersized Philly team. Chalk it up to low playing time (19 minutes) as Phoenix decided to play small ball with Alex Len getting the majority of the center minutes. Tyson is a decent streaming option for rebound-needy teams, but he’ll suffer some inconsistency based on Jeff Hornacek’s largely unpredictable rotations.

Paul Pierce – Is bad at basketball and needs to stop being a thing. That is all.

Monta Ellis – If you told Monta’s fantasy owners he’d be getting 38 minutes in a competitive game, mostly matched up against J.J. Redick, they’d sure be excited about his potential output. That’s why 6/4/5/2/0 on 3-12 shooting under those circumstances serves as a major disappointment.

Gerald Green – The nine-fingered assassin continues to squander his opportunity with the injury-depleted Heat. Green managed only six points on six shots, and has now failed to hit double figures in seven straight. He belongs on the wire.

Thaddeus Young – Thad the Impaler drove a spike through the heart of his fantasy owners with an empty 12/5/0/1/0 line in 32 uninspiring minutes. To make matters worse he missed both free throw attempts and just didn’t appear interested in competing on Tuesday. History suggests there are better nights ahead for Young.

Garrett Temple – Starting for the concussed Bradley Beal, Temple got heavy run (34 minutes) but did next to nothing with it. He managed only eight points and one rebound and he’s just not someone I want on my fantasy team even in his currently ideal situation.

DeMar DeRozan – The Washington Wizards made Double-D the focus of their defensive efforts and he struggled to get loose in his 34 minutes. Even though he only shot 5-13 from the field, he still scratched and clawed his way to 17 points, four boards, and four dimes. But the poor shooting and four turnovers amount to a sub-par evening for the likely All Star.

Elfrid Payton – Scott Skiles put Elfrid on the shelfrid for half the game as Payton split the point guard minutes right down the middle with Shabazz Napier. EP managed only 8/0/3/0/1 in his 24 minutes and he could be a frustrating player to own as long as he and Skiles are paired up in the Magic Kingdom.

Michael Carter-WilliamsElfrid Payton wasn’t the only starting PG to struggle in the Magic/Bucks game. MCW scored a whopping five points on eight shots. He used the rest of his 38 minutes to add two rebounds, five assists, a steal, and three turnovers to the box score. Amazingly, he’s been a top-75 player this month but many more nights like these and he’ll find himself outside the top-100 on the season (he was 94th heading into Tuesday’s game).

DeMarcus Cousins – What a departure from his last couple games. DMC made only four of his 21 attempts from the field. He missed both attempts from beyond the arc. And the 74% shooter managed to connect on only nine of 17 free throws. Boogie also failed to contribute a defensive stat for the first time since November 18th (a span of 28 games). It’s rare that we see a player’s best game of the season followed immediately thereafter by his worst, but that’s what we got from Cousins on Tuesday.

Wesley Matthews – Despite a cupcake matchup against the Lakers, Wes could only muster eight points and five dimes in 33 minutes. That’s right – no boards, no steals, no blocks. He’s still comfortably inside the top-100 for the month of January and for the entire season-to-date.

D’Angelo Russell – I stayed up to watch this game and I hated what I saw from the rookie. He played selfish (no assists), inefficient (4-12 FGs, 3 TOs) basketball and his shot selection was awful. Russell walks around the court with a little too much swagger for someone who should be humbled by his performance over much of his rookie season. The kid was coming in off a pair of quality outings, but this was a major step backwards and I can’t fault Byron Scott for favoring Jordan Clarkson & Lou Williams down the stretch of close games. It’s not a question of talent for DR, but rather one of attitude, decision-making and effort; he’ll need to get those things corrected before he can sustain his role, minutes, and production.

 

THE NOTEWORTHY

Blake Griffin – Broke his hand punching the Clippers’ ball boy (twice) at a restaurant in Toronto. Rumor has it Blake wanted to order the poutine and ball boy was all like, “Nah, Blake, don’t do it. You know melted cheese curds go straight to your thighs…and you’re already dealing with thigh issues, man.” *POW* Blake pops him right in the kissah. #BlameCanada

Kobe Bryant – Despite two full days of rest, the Bean couldn’t get his shoulder to the point where he was comfortable suiting up versus the Mavs. Razzball Nation – over/under 20 games played for Kobe from this point forward? (Gimme the under.)

Alex Len – Saw the majority of the center minutes and responded with a nice 16 & 12 double-double. Len made all four of his free throws, stole the ball once and rejected two shots in a very solid effort. He’s an attractive rest-of-season asset as the Suns will hopefully prioritize the development of their young talent.

Robert Covington – Is there a better streaming option for 3-pointers than Bobby Covington right now? He has launched an absurd 59 shots from behind the arc over his last six games, connecting on 26 (44%).  He has seen 30 or more minutes in six of his last seven games and looks to be a major part of the Sixers rotation as it currently stands. He’s going to murder your field goal percentage, but he provides enough of the counting stats to be a firm hold.

Nik Stauskas – Played a team-high 38 minutes against the Suns and provided a well-rounded line of 15/4/4/1/0 with a three and no TOs. Maybe the Sauce hasn’t expired just yet…

DeAndre Jordan – Standard DAJ line with the low scoring (nine points) and bad FT shooting (3-8), but huge rebound (19) and block (three) numbers. Steady as she goes.

Myles Turner – Was on a heater in the first half with a perfect 7-7 mark from the field. He played only a few minutes in the second half and missed all four attempts after the break to finish 7-11 for 16 points, six boards and a block. Even with Ian Mahinmi back in the starting lineup, Turner has shown plenty of ability to establish himself as a prominent role player for the Pacers. His arrow is pointing up.

Justise Winslow – The rookie is the Heat bench player to own. He played a team-high 37 minutes and parlayed that into a sweet line of 13/7/2/2/0 on 6-7 shooting with a three. Miami is getting healthier with Luol Deng back and Goran Dragic likely to miss only a game or two more, but Winslow has shown enough to lock down the 6th Man role. Not the worst guy to have on the end of your bench.

Donald Sloan – Played fewer minutes (23) as a starter than Shane Larkin did (25) off the bench. Neither player was especially productive and unless you’re in desperate need of assists, you can likely find better (see: higher upside) options on the waiver wire.

John Wall – Bad shooting night for Wall (6-17 FGs), but that has been the case for him against the Raptors all year. In true John Wall fashion though, he salvaged his line with 14 assists and a three.

Terrence Ross – He’s no Robert Covington, but T-Ross has found the range from deep as of late. Three more 3-pointers on Tuesday brought his total to 16 over his last five and he’s shot 50% or better from the field in each of those games. Consider streaming him while he has the hot hand. He could be even more attractive if the backcourt rotation consolidates due to potential missed time for Kyle Lowry (wrist).

Aaron Gordon – Played a team-high 37 minutes, but didn’t do a ton with them. 9/9/3/1/0 is underwhelming, but he stayed out of foul trouble, knocked down a 3-pointer, and didn’t turn the ball over. If AG can continue to see run in the 30+ MPG range, I’m confident he’ll find his way to top-100 value post-All Star break.

Damian Lillard – Matched his career-high with 13 assists, but struggled with his shot making only 5-16 overall (1-6 from deep).

Lou Williams – Sweet Lou provided the sweet money stats – a three, a steal, and three blocks. Don’t expect the swats to be a regular occurrence as he was matched up with J.J. Barea for much of the game, and I’m pretty sure you could stream Peter Dinklage for blocks if he was given the same assignment.

 

OPPORTUNITY IS EVERYTHING

The following players saw 36+ minutes of floor time on Tuesday:

DeAndre Jordan (41), Chris Paul (36), Paul George (38), George Hill (40), Monta Ellis (38), Devin Booker (36), Nik Stauskas (38), Justise Winslow (37), Joe Johnson (37), Serge Ibaka (47), Kevin Durant (43), Russell Westbrook (44), Dion Waiters (43), Lance Thomas (41), Arron Afflalo (40), Derrick Williams (36), Aaron Gordon (37), Nikola Vucevic (37), Giannis Antetokounmpo (38), Michael Carter-Williams (38), Khris Middleton (36), Otto Porter Jr. (36), John Wall (36), Kyle Lowry (36),

 

That wraps up another Tuesday evening in the Association. As always, if you want to chat waiver pickups, DFS plays, or anything else fantasy hoops, drop me a line on Twitter @moneyballmatty. Cheers.

  1. v00dr00 says:
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    Great read!

    Now, first order of business, what do we think about shipping IT2/3 for Moose? My only real need is OREBS, and if I start lacking 3’s(which I shouldn’t w/ guys like PG13, Batum, Crowder, BOOGIE, Ariza) they’re found fairly cheap on the wire. What do you think?

    • v00dr00 says:
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      @v00dr00: Another I was thinking was flipping PG13 for Draymond. Thoughts?

      • Matty

        Matty says:
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        @v00dr00: Yeah, if you can get Draymond back for PG13, do it. I like DG’s ROS outlook more than George’s (and I’m a PG13 owner in my big league – I’d be moving him if trading was allowed!). I think we’re going to see George’s minutes and efficiency drop as the season wears on. He’ll pop up with great nights like he had last night, but the averages should drop his overall value below Draymond’s through February and March.

        • v00dr00 says:
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          @Matty: Do you think Draymond is a good dynasty/keeper guy as well? I would have him, Boogie, Anthony Davis, and Bledsoe

          • Matty

            Matty says:
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            @v00dr00: Absolutely. One of the better ones actually. He’s just entering his prime on a team that has very real dynasty potential. He’s under contract thru 2019-2020 season and I really don’t think he’s leaving Golden State. The production you’re seeing now is very likely the production you’ll see in two, three, four years time…with perhaps some improved efficiency due to a natural progression of DG’s game. There’s no reason (other than injury) to think he’ll ever fall outside the top-20 while on his current long-term contract. Keep him.

            • v00dr00 says:
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              @Matty: Appreciate the insight, man.

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @v00dr00: Thanks, man. Glad you enjoyed it!

      In a vaccuum, I’d much prefer IT2/3. But if you’re desperate for rebounds (particularly offensive ones) you could do worse than Monroe. Are there any good glass cleaners on the wire? Tristan Thompson would be your best streamer. Ed Davis is another guy who averages nearly 3 per game on the offensive end and he barely plays 20 MPG (so he’d be great if Plumlee were to miss time).

  2. DL says:
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    Hey would really appreciate some advice for my fantasy squad. It is 9 cat 10 teams. Is Lopez the drop with Favours back? Also Len is available is he a pickup? Thanks for the input!

    Wall
    Kawhi
    Marc Gasol
    Jrue Holiday
    Kemba
    Parsons
    JR Smith
    JJ Redick
    Gay
    Monta
    Myles Turner
    R Lopez
    IL Favours

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @DL: Yeah, I think RoLo has to be your drop. Or Turner, depending on your faith in him carving out a 24+ MPG role if the other Indy bigs are healthy. Len & Turner are really close right now and both will struggle with consistency. I could actually see you dumping Monta for more big man depth too – he’s outside the top-100 9-cat players in January and barely inside that mark on the season. He’s worth owning for most builds, but your depth is in your backcourt and wings, so he might be disposable.

  3. Tyler says:
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    Playoffs start week20.
    Should i drop blake griffin for tjones, leuer or a streamer?

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @Tyler: What are we in now – week 14/15? You have one more full week after this, then two half weeks for the ASB. Blake is out until at least week 18/19, right? But starting March 7th, he has four four-game weeks in a five week stretch, so it’s a nice schedule if he’s back and healthy. There’s no way I’d drop him for inconsistent guys like Jones or Leuer (who often get minutes in the teens even when healthy). If those are your best options, I’d just stash BG and hope he hits the front side of his estimated return date.

  4. Wallaboutthebenjamin$ says:
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    In a 12 team 9 cat h2h league how do you feel about offering jae crowder and ariza for jimmy buckets? I’m really on the fence about this one let me know what you think thanks!

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @Wallaboutthebenjamin$: I’m as big a fan of Buckets as you’re likely to find. I personally wouldn’t let him go for Crowder/Ariza (though both are playing pretty darn well of late). Jimmy is a first round value and he’s tough as nails – he’s going to continue playing through minor ailments and putting up top-10 to 15 numbers ROS. If you can get him for Jae/Trevor, do it.

      • WALLabouthtebenjamin$ says:
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        @Matty: Trade was accepted already before I asked this question this basically just made me excited about getting him now and I’m already scheming on who to pick up so the trade just needs to make it through tonight to push through. Thanks for the input appreciate it Matty!

        • Matty

          Matty says:
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          @WALLabouthtebenjamin$: Nice! Hope it goes through. Who are your waiver wire options to fill the empty roster spot?

  5. dom says:
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    hey good write up, who do I stream tomorrow? need all cats

    Darrell Arthur, Lauvergne (@WAS)
    Jordan Hill, Lavoy Allen (ATL)
    Tiago Splitter (@IND)
    James Johnson, Cory Joseph (NYK)
    Alonzo Gee (SAC)
    Bobby Portis (@LAL)

    thanks!

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @dom: Thanks, dom – appreciate it.

      Not the Denver guys – Arthur too inconsistent and Lauvergne is in a positional mess, plus is battling a toe ailment.

      Not the Indy bigs – Mahinmi is back and Myles is demanding minutes, so that’s a situation to avoid.

      Can’t trust Splitter’s minutes. Same goes for Portis.

      Johnson is starting but not getting much run. And Gee is (maybe) starting, has a nice matchup, but has scored in double figures a grand total of ONE time all season.

      I like CoJo in this spot. Even if Lowry plays (currently questionable), Joseph is likely to get 25-30 minutes and should give you something in the 10/3/3 range with a steal at minimum. Obviously he’d be in line for more if Kyle’s wrist prevents him from suiting up.

      There might be a bit of homer bias here, but I think CoJo is your most reliable source of low-end usable stats.

      • dom says:
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        @Matty: sounds good. so in my 9 cat tonight debating between Wiggins (OKC) and Ish (@DET) for my UTIL. I could use Ish assists more than Wiggins points as I’m trailing in AST by like 2, but I’m winning the matchup 6-3 overall and can win it without winning AST. Kind of like Wiggins for the FT volume and better %s and TO. Although that may be reading into it too much, who is better tonight in vacuum? thanks

        • Matty

          Matty says:
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          @dom: I’d go with Ish. He’s getting the steady run and should be able to drop 8+ dimes in a game that has an O/U of 206. Wiggins is great for FTs…when he’s MAKING them, but he has also shown he can lose confidence in his stroke real quick and hurt you in that cat. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I think Ish Smith is a safer play than Andrew Wiggins. (That’s such a weird sentence to write.)

  6. Javale4MVP says:
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    I was really worried when Lowry ran straight to the locker room after the screen. Reminded me of Love running to the locker room after Olynyk pulled out his shoulder.

    Thoughts on Kobe? In a 12 team 9 cat h2h, droppable? There are guys like WCS and T.Allen available to grab.

    Thanks!

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @Javale4MVP: Yeah, it was a weird one. Ran straight to the tunnel, then was back on the bench when they came back from commercial break. But then he didn’t finish the game (it was a blowout anyways) and was gone before the game finished. He’s questionable now for Thursday’s game so that suggests at the very least that he shouldn’t miss EXTENDED time. Maybe a game or two tops.

      Kobe is absolutely dropable. He’s a declining asset and his peak value wasn’t particularly high to begin with. WCS looks like a nice option while Rudy Gay is out and maybe even beyond that. I think the rook has carved out a 25 MPG role even with the Kings at full health. Allen would be your guy only if you’re desperate for steals.

      • A Hill O' Beans says:
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        @Matty: With the Raptors going for a franchise record 10th consecutive win I think you’ll see Lowry play. He’s tough guy in general, but I also hear he wasn’t favoring the wrist in the locker room after the game (tying his shoes and what not). I guess it could swell up, but my money is on him suiting up. Just my 2¢…

        • Matty

          Matty says:
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          @A Hill O’ Beans: Yeah, I heard/saw the same reports. Hopefully he’s a go tonight in primetime. I think he’ll tough it out since it’s a high profile game for the Raps and – like you said – an important potential win for the franchise, historically speaking.

  7. I'm Harden for your love says:
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    What order to you have these guys in. This is how I have them as of right now

    Turner/Gibson/Len

    I have Turner and Gibson at the moment but I need help on my steal and 3pts and would like to drop one for KCP or even Lou for his ft% bump.

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @I’m Harden for your love: I would say Turner/Len/Gibson. Taj has had plenty of opportunity with Noah going down and hasn’t done much with it. The upside is higher with both youngsters. I wouldn’t be opposed to dropping Taj for either KCP or Lou, depending on which cats you are in most desperate need of.

  8. Joe says:
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    Is it possible to use a combination of Teague + Gortat to get any of the following players and, if I could, should I? (I could also wait for Batum to get healthy and try to use him instead).

    Vucevic, Knight, Gay, Noel.

    My team in a 5×5, h2h, 9-cat league: Wall, Teague, A.Bradley, Redick, Batum, Middleton, Durant, Bosh, Porzingis, Gobert, Gortat

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @Joe: Teague sounds like he’s on the outs with Atlanta, plus he’s dealing with a sore ankle, so if you can get any value for him, do it. I like Noel’s upside with Ish back in Philly, but he could struggle on nights when both he and Jahlil are starting. He’s so much better when Philly runs small ball. Stay away from Knight – a second opinion in LA on a messed up groin for a team that’s tanking is a BAD combination. That’s a shutdown recipe if I’ve ever seen one. Gay can’t shake these minor injuries, but when he plays, he’s been good. And Vuc is rock solid as a top-40 kinda guy. I’d probably rank your targets: Vuc, Noel, Gay, Knight (avoid).

  9. Bryan says:
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    So someone in my league offered me Beal for Bazemore? What do you guys think? Should I take it? Beal has higher upside, but I’m a little worried about his injuries.

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @Bryan: Baze hasn’t played fewer than 23 minutes in two months! He’s getting the run and producing as a three & D guy, even with the Hawks pretty close to full health. I’m with you in being concerned with all the bumps & bruises (& breaks) that Beal is accumulating. If I’m a decision-maker in Washington, I’m really monitoring his minutes and usage moving forward.

      Even on a per-game basis (so accounting for Beal’s DNPs), Bazemore is 25 spots more valuable than Beal on the year…and that’s in close to five minutes fewer (28.0 for Baze, 32.9 for Beal).

      Baze is the guy to covet in that pairing.

  10. dan the man says:
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    hey matty,

    another great article. just wondering if you think i should make any moves. currently in 1st in h2h 9-cat 10teamer. i feel like a lot of guys are producing at much higher than their ADP and am worried about regression.

    G: IT2/3, Dame, RJax, Ish, A. Goodwin
    F: O. Porter, Covington, T. Harris, Dray, Casspi, A. Gordon, M. Barnes
    C: Pau, M. Turner, Gobert

    thinking about dropping Casspi or M. Barnes for someone like Len. Also got Schroder and Fournier on the wire right now. any advice would be greatly appreciated!

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @dan the man: Thanks, dtm. We aim to please!

      Goodwin is obviously your biggest regression candidate (and could fall off the map completely once Knight comes back) but he’s an easy one to ride right to the edge of the cliff before bailing. Your core guys of IT2/3, Dame, Dray, Pau and Gobert should all be able to sustain or improve what they’ve done season to date – I don’t see anything in any of their situations that would prevent them from doing so.

      You’ll get a good amount of inconsistency from your wings like Covington, Casspi, Gordon, but they all have nice upside if things break right. Similar with Myles Turner (just needs the minutes/opportunity).

      The two guys I might look to sell are Reggie and Tobias – not a huge fan of either and I think their name value exceeds their actual fantasy worth. I would be throwing out feelers for those guys and seeing what kind of value they might fetch.

      I would drop Barnes for Len. You’re a bit thin for bigs and Len has been nice lately. And keep a close eye on the Hawks PG situation – that could blow up in a hurry with a trade of either Teague or Schroder.

  11. MJC says:
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    Matty plus anyone else:
    In a keeper where I keep 3 and I have Brow and Zinger as 2 would you rather Drummond or Blake with his broken hand news? I’m in 10th with no shot so just planning for next year. I think blake compliments brow and zinger better since both aarw good FT% bigs. Blaked owner is obviously frustrated and shopping him.
    Thanks for help

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @MJC: I would go Drummond. Too much uncertainty with Blake moving forward. The Clips’ title window is closing REALLY fast and they may blow the whole thing up this offseason. Drummond should be a 15 & 15 type of guy for the foreseeable future and maybe SVG can work some mind magic for FT improvement. I also think the NBA is going to take a long, hard look at the “hack-a-” strategy this offseason which should help to offset the low % volume hit for guys like DeAndre and Dwight & Andre in coming seasons.

      A lot of that is speculation, but you have to do a good amount of that

      • Matty

        Matty says:
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        @Matty: …woops – hit “post comment” by accident before finishing.

        “…you have to do a good amount of that…” in keeper leagues, especially when deciding between two guys who still have a 5+ year career ahead of them in the NBA. I think we’ve seen the best of Griffin, but I’m not sure we’ve witnessed Drummond’s career-best yet. It could be pretty special when we do.

  12. Scott says:
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    Hi Matty! I’ve got a team in 12ers with Curry, Ellis, D. Collison, Gay, Griffin, Favors, and Kanter. At the rate I’m going, I’m going to miss the playoffs so I’m considering trading Griffin for some immediate assistance. Should I try for a Center or a Small Forward?

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @Scott: Hey Scott. What’s up, my man?

      I’m not sure what Blake’s value is given that he’s going to miss the bulk of the remaining non-playoff schedule for fantasy owners. If he can get you a nice wing player, I’d try for that. Your two centers compliment each other well (when healthy) in that Kanter basically only provides points & boards, whereas Favors is a nice source of steals and blocks for a big.

      Hopefully Gay comes back from his eye injury quickly and can string together several weeks of healthy play. But if you can get a top-50 player at a wing position for Blake, you have to do it. If it’s someone in the 50-100 range, try to get two such guys back.

      Hit us back and let us know what kind of player owners are willing to part with for Blake. I’m interested to know!

  13. Kendrick Twerkins says:
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    Totally agree an the deangelo assessment. He’s not that good yet and his team sucks. I hate seeing him do the hotline blind dance and then his team loses by 10. He’s shown flashes but I bet the Lakers are kicking themselves for not taking Kristaps or Okafor.

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @Kendrick Twerkins: Hey KT – great name!

      Yeah, the kid needs a reality check right quick. You can almost excuse the behavior if your team is winning and you’re lighting it up, but the Lakers get their butts handed to them more often than not and DR is getting owned by opposing PGs on a nightly basis. Until you can flip that script, cut out the theatrics and the attitude. Take your rookie lumps, pay your dues, listen to your coach (no matter how much of a jerk he may be), and focus on being a better fundamental player. Right now Russell reminds me a bit of a left-handed, less athletic Gilbert Arenas.

  14. nathan says:
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    Hi, i enjoy reading your breakdowns every morning while i crucnhing on my capt’n crunch. now i need some advice

    I’m in a 10 team h2h league, we can keep 2 players…. my current keepers are Cousins & Wall…
    another team is making kyrie available but wants to have a keeper caliber player in return,….

    would you trade any of these players to get Kyrie:
    Wall
    Marc Gasol
    Pau Gasol—-
    although i think he’s most interested in Wall, since the other guys are older. is Kyrie worth Wall when i have Cousins, who turns over the ball just as much as Wall, which is wall’s negative

    thanks yo!

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @nathan: Hey nathan. That’s good to hear. We pair nicely with coffee and sugary breakfast cereals. Personally I prefer to read JB’s stuff over a bowl of Count Chocula, but that’s only available seasonally (Halloween), so I’ve switched to Reese’s Peanut Butter Puffs.

      Cousins and Wall are a nice pair of keepers to have!

      Obviously Pau for Kyrie is something you could do (and then flip your younger, more valuable asset for someone else) if you can get it, but I doubt the other owner would go for that straight up. The name of the game when you can only keep two players is getting the ELITE guys, so anything you can do to improve tradeable value, you have to do it. I’d see if I could work out a couple deals that put you in position to pair a DMC & Wall/Kyrie for a Durant/young PG or C (like Gobert or KAT). Try to get a top-2 or 3 asset in his prime (Steph/KD obviously the top two targets) and a guy on the rise if you can. I think both Wall & Cousins are what they are at this point – which is pretty darn good. So hopefully you can parlay that into an elite guy and someone who could become that.

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @Yager: Yeah, I’d wait until we know more about Knight. If he gets bad news following the second opinion on his groin, he’s potentially worthless for the year. Then you’re doing Reggie for Korver and that’s probably not a great idea. I don’t mind parting with Reggie at all, but see if you can get a non-injured PG + a 3-point specialist who does more volume (like Covington). J.J. Redick might also be a target for you as I think he’s poised for a better second half of the season than Korver and their name value carries pretty similar weight from what I’ve seen.

      • Yager says:
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        @Matty: Thanks for the solid advice. Much appreciated! Wish Knight was healthy, would be a no brainer, with the sitution there.

      • Yager says:
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        @Matty: Is Monta Ellis and Redick a good swap for Jackson? I do have Bazemore to rock at the SG, but have had a revolving door at the G position.

        • Matty

          Matty says:
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          @Yager: Yeah, I’d be ok with Redick/Monta for Reggie, though I’m not a huge Monta fan. A lot of his February/March value will be tied to how much of a burden they try to take off Paul George and his tired legs. But with Blake Griffin out for the next month, month-and-a-half, a big scoring burden is going to be put on JJR, so he’s an attractive guy to roster if you’re in need of 3s.

  15. eric says:
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    ei matty nice article btw!! awesome
    heres my curent lineup at the moment (atm)
    ish
    harden
    booker phx
    teague
    galo
    t jones
    mirza
    zaza
    hawes
    stauskas
    omri
    cody zeller
    ive tried to proposed my galo for his ibaka
    but he countered it w galo and ish for his ibaka and beal?
    would u recommend to go for it? im worried about beals health as well
    more power to you guys!!!

    • eric says:
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      @eric: btw its 18 team h2h 9 cats

      • Matty

        Matty says:
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        @eric: Nice – deep league question! 18 teams is big time.

        Thanks for the kudos on the article. Appreciate you reading (and commenting).

        Funny how you giving up Ish to get Beal might be enough to decline a trade. What a time to be alive! But it’s definitely a consideration. Any way you can hit him back and swap out Ish for Teague? In name value it should most certainly work, but Teague has been brutal and he’s battling nagging injuries and now trade rumors. He might be someone to sell while he still carries some weight. I think Gallo/Teague for Ibaka/Beal is a pretty square deal and you could certainly use the help in blocks with Zeller & Zaza on the shelf and TJones not seeing consistent minutes. If you get to keep Ish, you know you’ll be set with the assists and you’d just have to hope that Beal could improve his efficiency to where he can post top-75 value in a ~28 MPG role. I think he can, FWIW.

        Good luck, eric. Let us know how it goes.

        • eric says:
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          @Matty: Matty? thanks for the quick reply grins* really appreciate that!YUp just proposed the deal hopefully it will work. I know youve been so busy guys. IM actually #14 right now losses has been brutal ever since i lost bledsoe, burks, jack. Im still not losing hope hopefully i could start winning. I have spencer hawes on my lineup i may need to drop him some notable names in FA pool adams, morris (phx), cj miles, stanley johnson, waiters, nene, winslow any recomendations? or just wait for any notable names?

  16. DORIAN says:
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    Hey Matt, would you flip Archie for JJ redick. What are his keeper prospects?

    H2h 12 team KEEPER league.

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @DORIAN: Yeah, for sure I would. Archie’s value is SUPER temporary. If Knight gets good news following his second opinion, he’ll jump right back into a heavy minute starter role and Archie will be close to irrelevant.

      Redick is under contract through the end of next season, so you’ll get at least one more year (plus what’s left of this season) of him putting up top-75 value.

  17. Mari says:
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    Hey Matty,

    IF you need a guard, who would you prefer at this point? Tyreke Evans, Eflrid, T. Parker, or Pbev?

    Thanks!

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @Mari: I wish we knew that Evans’ knee would hold up for the rest of the season. He’s your guy if you think he can tough out 30+ more games this year. If you’re risk averse and want to rule out Tyreke for fear he’ll be shut down…then the rankings say it goes Parker, Beverley, Elfrid. Depends what PG stats you need most though. Steals and 3s – you’re favoring PBev. But if it’s assists, you might have to lean Elfrid and hope he replicates last season’s late run. And just general consistency, Parker’s your man.

  18. Threekola says:
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    Would you trade Millsap and Schroder for Towns and Monta?

    Thanks

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @Threekola: With the talk of Teague getting shipped to New York, I think I’d prefer Sapper/Schroder. I love me some KAT, but he doesn’t provide the statistical versatility that Sapper does quite yet. And Schroder could very well be more valuable than Monta through Feb/Mar if he gets 30 minutes with the starters.

  19. Jerry says:
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    Hey, Matty! Elfrid Payton or Bazemore ros? I’m in a head to head points league. Thanks!

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @Jerry: Hey Jerry – how’s it goin’?

      I’d say Bazemore. His role is solid in the high-20/low-30 minutes and should have no problem maintaining his current averages of roughly 13/5/2 with close to three combined steals & 3s.

      If Skiles weren’t heading up the Magic, I might just say Payton. But one night he’ll play 20 minutes and post 4/1/4 and a couple nights later he’ll play 41 minutes and go for 21/6/10 (this actually just happened on Jan 14th & 20th).

      For roto, it’s EASILY Bazemore. For points leagues, it’s definitely closer, but I’d still lean towards the consistency and reliability of Baze over Elfrid.

  20. Jerry says:
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    Thanks for the help, Matty! Enjoy the weekend!

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