A few years back, there was this popular book series that was also one of the first click-baitey lists I remember seeing online. It was called “Eat This, Not That!”. Or, as it might as well have been called: “Feel Guilty Every Time You Have A Deep-Fried Onion Appetizer.” They’d present two relatively similar items at a restaurant, one with roughly half the calories and a fraction of the saturated fat. That one was usually smaller, and shockingly, not deep-fried. I remember grumpily learning that some of the absolute worst things you could eat were also some of my favorites, of course. That would be these beauties:

The Triumvirate: The Awesome Blossom, The Bloomin’ Onion, and The Cactus Blossom. No thanks! I won’t be substituting grilled salmon and fresh vegetables! I LIKE having my entire recommended weekly allowance of calories BEFORE my entrée arrives!

So, this week, I thought I’d take from that and from another idea I’ve always liked: Comparing nameless stat-lines. So, let’s do a Roster This, Not That! How’s this going to give us an advantage? What I’m going for here is, unsurprisingly, picking two players with relatively similar stat sets. One will generally be a player that your typical fantasy manager will value close to his draft price, and the other will be an overachiever, and possibly an under-the-radar one at that. Then, if you think that player might not be properly valued in your league, you should try to acquire him, as he could come cheap. If you have the player he’s being compared to, you could even see if you could make the swap and upgrade somewhere else at the same time. Now, if the other manager is up on their current player rankings, you may not get a deal, but, even so, they could be skeptical that the surprising player can keep it up. I’ve admitted before that I’m reluctant to change my perception of a player quickly. I pretty much value players where they were drafted for a little too long, since I’m resistant to believe the small sample size is more predictive than the career body of work. Which is right? That’s part of the fun, of course. So, here are a handful of comparisons I came up with (see if you can guess a few). It’s less about these specific players than the overall concept. Make sure you’re not just sticking with the big names. When it comes to fantasy, you’ve got to think of these players as a set of numbers.

*These are 9-Category per-game rankings through 1/29 from Basketball Monster. Remember that the difference in a few rounds of value can be very small, especially in later rounds, so don’t overrate the difference in rankings.

 

PLAYER FG% 3PTM FT% REB AST STL BLK TO PTS RANK
A 50% 1.8 84.8% 12.2 3.1 1 1.9 2.8 22 7
B 52% 1.2 77.5% 12 3.8 1 1.2 2 20.7 12

Player A is ranked higher and Player B is a popular trade candidate who would see a decline in value if dealt. So, you still want Karl-Anthony Towns (A) over Nikola Vucevic (B), but it’s been shockingly close, so far.

 

PLAYER FG% 3PTM FT% REB AST STL BLK TO PTS RANK
C 46.1% 1.6 78.6% 5.6 1.9 1.5 0.5 1 12.7 43
D 43.3% 2.5 77.3% 5.7 1.5 2.3 1.1 1.1 14.5 18

These are two fantasy darlings that most of us know have a ton of value, but I think many people still value 9-cat stud Otto Porter Jr. (C) similarly to Robert Covington (D), when Covington is better almost everywhere. Though, Otto should continue to improve with Wall out, and possibly if he gets dealt, as well.

 

PLAYER FG% 3PTM FT% REB AST STL BLK TO PTS RANK
E 43.4% 2.4 73.4% 6.9 5.4 1.1 0.3 3.2 20.5 80
F 46.6% 2.6 78.9% 5 5.1 1.4 0.8 2.8 24.7 15

Similar points/rebounds/assists, but it’s the little things like the percentages and blocks that help account for the difference in ranking of Luka Doncic (E) and Bradley Beal (F). With Beal’s recent hot streak, you certainly shouldn’t be able to get him for Luka, but there are plenty of people out there who might think these guys are in the same tier. I love Luka as much as the next guy, but his fantasy game isn’t quite refined yet. Look at what he might be able to do, fantasy-Gwise, if he can clean up those percentages and turnovers in the coming years, though.

 

PLAYER FG% 3PTM FT% REB AST STL BLK TO PTS RANK
G 46.2% 2.9 80.4% 4 2 1.2 0.6 1.6 21.7 31
H 47.6% 3.4 86.5% 4.9 2.3 0.5 0.3 1.8 20.2 41

Just wanted to point out how similar these guys’ stats have been. Both have performed better than most expected. That’s Klay Thompson (G) and Buddy Hield (H). Next time Klay hits double-digit threes, maybe you can get Hield and another good player for him.

(Jose Carlos Fajardo/Bay Area News Group)

 

PLAYER FG% 3PTM FT% REB AST STL BLK TO PTS RANK
I 44.4% 1.5 75.7% 8.7 4.7 1.2 1.3 2.3 15.7 30
J 50.1% 0.1 75.3% 10.4 3.2 1.1 1.6 2.3 15.2 34

Yes, there’s a trade-off in FG% and threes, but the rest is very close. Maybe you’ve got Marc Gasol (I) and don’t need the threes or there are concerns about a trade, so you swap him for Jusuf Nurkic (J).

 

PLAYER FG% 3PTM FT% REB AST STL BLK TO PTS RANK
K 43.2% 1.9 83.6% 4.4 4.9 0.8 0.4 2.4 18.5 91
L 40.5% 2.5 86.3% 3.7 3.9 1.1 0.5 1.7 17.5 54

Looks pretty close with a few small tradeoffs, but it would be worth seeing if your league’s Josh Richardson (L) owner has a thing for your upsidey Jamal Murray (K).

 

PLAYER FG% 3PTM FT% REB AST STL BLK TO PTS RANK
M 48% 2.4 76% 8.1 5.3 0.8 0.4 3.8 26.3 36
N 50.3% 2 88.4% 7.9 2.6 0.8 0.5 1.9 21.2 21

These two were even real-life traded for each other last season. Two players having career years so far. One with double the turnovers. That would be Blake Griffin (M). You lose points and assists when you swap him for Tobias Harris (N), but your team will look better in some key spots.

 

PLAYER FG% 3PTM FT% REB AST STL BLK TO PTS RANK
O 43.3% 1.5 82.2% 3.1 2.7 0.9 0.4 1.2 15 114
P 43.3% 1.9 81.1% 3.6 4.1 1 0.2 1.9 15.2 111

These guys have both been injured and have a great shot at improving on these numbers once they really get rolling. In case you don’t think Gary Harris (O) is returning to last year’s stats on that talented Nuggets team, you could probably get someone to pay for him like a top 50 player and sneak Bogdan Bogdanovic (P) over to your side in a deal.

 

So, back to a recurring theme of mine: remember to look at all the stats, even the less interesting ones. Some of the differences between these players are simply turnovers or a shooting percentage or two. Those can really add up. On the other hand, your team may be able to ignore the category that’s causing the major difference in value and take advantage.

Enjoy the trade rumors in the coming week!

 

This week’s classic fantasy line:

Let’s go with third-year Dirk Nowitzki. Take a look at these stats that were already good enough for the second-best fantasy value that season, just missing out on 1st place to Ray Allen. Thanks again, Basketball Monster Historical Rankings.

  1. Jeff says:
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    Hello Tad-

    12 Team Keeper league – 10 CAT

    Would you trade Markannen and Fox for Jokic

    Fox and Markannen are protected for 2 more season. If i take it then i will lose Curry next year.

    I can try and trade Curry this year or do i not need Jokic?

    Maybe trade Curry for Bledsoe and a 1st Rd pick?

    My Team:

    PG: Curry/Fox/Shai Alexander/Rozier
    SG:Harden/Lamb/Hardaway
    SF: Giannis/Mikal Bridges/Hayward
    PF: Lauri/Barnes/MAarkieff Morris/Bertans
    C: JJJ/Sabonis/Jonas/WCS/Gortat

    • Tad

      Tad says:
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      @Jeff: Hi Jeff. Thanks for the question. What are your keeper rules? Like, how many do you keep and how is it determines how long you can keep a player? Also, what is the 10th category, assuming 9 of them are standard 9-cat? In a vacuum, I’d definitely do the deal and have 3 top… 8 players. And, assuming you could keep all 3 plus a player you got for curry and JJJ… That sounds amazing.

  2. Jeff says:
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    Hello-

    TO is the other cat

    It’s keep 3 lose 1 for 4 rds then we draft. So I would lose curry if I can’t trade him. And if I trade curry for Bledsoe/Dinwiddie/1st I’d lose Bledsoe.

    You can keep any rookie drafted for 3 years. So markannen and fox could be kept for 2 more seasons.

    This is why I am hesitant to do the trade. What do you think?

    • Tad

      Tad says:
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      @Jeff: Interesting setup. I’d love to help, so I need just a little more clarification. You keep 3 total players or 4? Can you only keep non-rookies once? Can you keep harden and giannis and curry, or are you losing anyone regardless of this move? I assume you’re in contention this season with that core, so are you more going for it now or trying to set up next year? Normally TO is part of 9-cat, so there’s probably another one you’re using that I’m not familiar with. And it throws me off a bit when you say Lauri and Fox could be kept for 2 more years but that rookies can only be kept for 3 years, since next year is their 3rd. I’ve got a few leagues with very specific rules, too. Just want to make sure I value these players properly for you.

      • jeff says:
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        @Tad:

        you keep 3 players then lose the next highest rank player. this goes on for 3 rds until you are left wit 12 players then we have a 6 rd draft.

        I can keep my top 3 players forever if i want. If i take jokic i will lose curry next season but i have an offer to trade curry for bledsoe/dinwiddle/1st rd pick. Problem is i will probably lose bledsoe next year then.

        every rookie drafted is protected for 3 years, so they cannot be chosen to be sent to the FA pool during Free agency.

        So for Fox and Markannen – i can keep them for the next 2 seasons.

        thank you

        • Tad

          Tad says:
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          @jeff: Thanks for the explanation. That’s quite a league that adds a ton of strategy. As easy of a decision as the jokic deal would normally be, I think I’d just keep curry. Those top 3 you have, plus your young studs seems unstoppable to me. i know you’d be losing some of them, but I’d rather try to keep Steph off the market.

          • jeff says:
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            @Tad:

            Yes i feel the same way – thank you…i wish i had jokic tho. maybe ill try to trade curry and JJJ for ihm

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