The beginning of the fantasy hoops season is in many ways the most exciting stretch of the year.
In your league, everyone is engaged and still confident their team has a chance to win. Activity is at an all-time high.
In the NBA, some players look poised to have career years. Others look like they’re suffering from off-season hangovers, raising doubts about their health, role, and often their ability, even among some of the league’s best players. Uncertainty is at an all-time high.
This high level of activity and uncertainty creates the perfect storm for managers with a predatory nature and a proclivity to deal.
If you’re a predatory dealer, you’ve come to the right place. Here is an early “buy low, sell high” list to start the new season.
Buy Low Candidates
Note: There are many players who are underperforming at the moment. I tried to target players who are generating noticeable angst for fantasy owners.
Tyrese Haliburton – Lets start with the elephant in the room. Halliburton has been awful. Video of him coming home from the club and posting on social media at 4:00 AM doesn’t help matters. Neither does a deep dive into last season’s monthly splits where you’ll see his numbers — particularly scoring — too a sharp dive after the month of December. I never thought Halliburton deserved his mid first round draft status going into the season, but I also didn’t expect him to be anything close to this bad either. While I would not deal an elite player for him, I would certainly kick the tires to gauge the level of panic in whoever currently has him in my league. He’s a great 2 for 1 target if you have a couple mid level guys who are crushing it.
Bam Adebayo – Like most on the buy low list, Bam is off to a poor start. However, there’s no reason to expect anything short of a typical Bam season. I recently offered Jarrett Allen for him, because Allen is off to a great start and I still value Bam higher. That’s the kind of deal I’d look to make for Bam. Vintage buy low, sell high.
Jamal Murray – Yes, this is me shamelessly doubling down on my claim that Murray is among the most undervalued players in the top 100. No, I’m not terribly confident he will be his best self again. However, until the team discloses an injury I’m going to assume Murray is rounding himself back into form, even after a rough summer that saw him struggle in the Olympics too. This is probably the last time I stake my reputation on Murray, so I hope he gets it going sooner than later.
Tobias Harris – His early season shooting has been abysmal, but he still has a great opportunity in Detroit and his status as boring vet and Philly scapegoat make him a strong buy low candidate — especially after the rough start. A great target if you need cheap points and boards.
OG Anunoby – We’ve probably already seen his best days as a fantasy player, but that doesn’t mean he can’t still provide a lot of value as an efficient across the board player who elevates your team in the steals category.
D’Angelo Russell – It seems like a benching feels imminent with Russell every year and then he goes on to post above average PG numbers. Will he do it again? I think he will.
Herb Jones and Alex Caruso – Two defensive stat stuffers who do enough offensively to make them super valuable. Both play on deep teams, and Caruso’s minutes will likely be lower in OKC, but I still love them both despite slow starts. Two of my favorite top 100 targets, because I feel like you can trade a top 100-150 player off to a hot start to land them.
Andrew Nembhard and Ayo Dosunmu – Here I go shamelessly doubling down again. Two of my big leap candidates showcasing more of a limp than a leap. I’m still keeping the faith. Both are marred in rough shooting slumps. In Ayo’s case Chicago’s congested backcourt situation — which many rightly predicted — has presented early challenges to his ability to breakout. They both made my big leap column because they can flat out shoot it and once their shots start to fall again I think they will be fine. I’m targeting both aggressively in all formats
Sell High Candidates
Note: The players below are not all traditional sell high candidates, meaning they aren’t all players off to fluky hot starts. I believe in selling high on players even if they are legitimately producing at higher levels that are relatively sustainable, especially if the hype surrounding their elevated play creates a tremendous buy/sell opportunity for my team. You’ll notice some examples of those types of players below.
James Harden – Harden is off to a tremendous start statistically. He’s also shooting the ball horribly and playing nearly 38 minutes per game. At age 35, coming off the worst season of his career, this doesn’t feel like an elite player to me — though I do expect him to put up big numbers. Harden is my ultimate guy to offer Tyrese Haliburton managers.
LaMelo Ball – I think Melo is legit, but if you truly fear his ability to stay healthy, this is your chance to move him for a huge return. I have shares and intend to keep him. Trade at your own risk, but for the risk adverse now is the time to trade.
DeMar DeRozan – He’s to a great start in Sacramento, but I would be shocked if his numbers didn’t drop across the board given how much deeper the team is there compared to Chicago.
Zach LaVine – Nobody wanted this guy to start the season. Now we know he will play and can still produce. Continued strong play probably leads to him getting dealt in real life, but will it be to a situation conducive to peak production? Probably not.
Walker Kessler – I’m a fan, but he’s shooting .875 percent and odds are his production and minutes will continue to be inconsistent. Take advantage of the hot start and try to get someone who does more consistently.
Ivica Zubac – He made my undervalued article, and boy does he looked like he was undervalued. This looks like it will be a career year for Zubac, but 22 ppg, 14 boards, and 4 assists seems like a stretch. Might be worth testing to the market to see what you can get for him, though I wouldn’t blame you if you just held. Zubac + for Bam?
Klay Thompson – Klay has exceeded expectations his first couple games after an awful showing this pre-season. There’s no doubt Dallas is an ideal landing spot for him, but if you’re expecting anything close to peak Klay you’re probably expecting too much. This is a great time to take advantage of his hot start, especially if you can find a devoted “Klaytheist” in your league.
Dyson Daniels – His game against the Thunder was a great reminder that this is still a very young and raw offensive player. His defensive upside is likely worth holding onto, but given the hype — which is currently off the charts — it might be worth testing the waters to see what you can get for him. I’d try Daniels for OG or Herb Jones, for example.
Gradey Dick – He should be good this year, but he looks like an empty points and 3 pointers guy. Take advantage of his early hot shooting and try to land a more well-rounded fantasy asset. I would move him for Nembhard or Dosunmu without much hesitation but depending on team needs would shoot for Herb Jones or Caruso.
