Ball Security Buys: Three Low-Turnover Fantasy Targets

If you’re following my stuff here, you’d know that I was in Mexico. Actually, it was a full service resort, and if you’ve ever gone to one, you’ll notice the efficiency. Messes are swept up without being noticed. Food is ready and plentiful. The rooms are always clean somehow.

Your fantasy team needs that kind of efficiency too. Everyone knows the high usage, high turnover, low percentage guys. Leagues are won on the margins. Here are some guys two help in that way.

Aaron Nesmith

Nesmith has had a truncated season due to injury. He’s back now, but you may not have noticed due to him being on the 6-31 Indiana Pacers. At only 31% owned in Yahoo leagues, Nesmith (eligible at G and F) needs to be owned on more teams.

Nesmith’s efficiency numbers are down this season, leading to a 38% FG percentage on the season. Positive regression is likely; his previous seasons were at 51% and 49%. The dip is fueled this season by a 2nd percentile shooting season at the rim (43%), which could be due to a certain all NBA point guard missing the season. I’d look for that to bounce back as Nesmith settles into health and a new role this season.

The Pacers’ forward won’t be a league winner, but he will be a steady contributor. The rebounds will be around 5 per game, the stocks at 1.5 combined, and a couple of assists. The biggest boon though is the turnover numbers. Nesmith historically does not turn the ball over. Even this year, with added ball responsibilities due to the team’s situation, he’s in the 90th percentile for turnover rate. Averaging only one turnover per game is a major help in this category.

Expected Stats: 15 PPG, 6 RB, 2 AST, 2 Stocks, 50% shooting, 2-3 3PM

Tre Jones

The Chicago Bulls are missing point “guard” Josh Giddey, giving the keys to the offense to Tre Jones. The Duke product has a much different profile than Giddey, one that will be useful to owners in Giddey’s stead. Jones is a low end scorer and low volume three point shooter, but is solid in percentages, steals, and helps your turnover category.

Jones’ assist rate is elite (94th percentile) and with only one turnover per game his game is a coach’s dream. In his last three games, all as a starter and playing 27 minutes per game, he’s totaled 4 turnovers. Add nearly a steal per game and Jones is a valuable player.

The Chicago Bulls are a team to watch as the deadline approaches also. Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu are on expiring contracts and could be dealt, opening up more minutes and opportunity for Jones. His usage is 17% as both a starter or reserve, so it’s an opportunity for volume later. He’s helpful now and should be owned with upside for more as the trade deadline approaches in a month.

Expected Stats: 12 PPG, 6 ast, 1 steal, 1 TO, 3 RB, and hope and pray he hits three pointers

Should be owned in all 12-14 team leagues, ten team use him until Giddey gets back.

Day’Ron Sharpe: Only 6.5% owned

At first blush, Sharpe doesn’t fit this theme. He’s not a low turnover guy, and as a F/C that’s damaging. But those lovely, lovely percentages! 91st percentile at the rim, and 89th overall in true shooting! In his last two games which he started (due to Nic Claxton’s absence), in 32 minutes he’s averaging 15.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 3.5 AST, and 4.5 Stocks. The efficiency in ball security is also trending up; Sharpe only averaged 1 TO/game in December and January. When you look at his 61% shooting percentage, the North Carolina native has a lot to offer.

The question is, then, will he get that chance? Right now he’s just a streaming option. The team context matters, though. This is the Nets, who surely will want to increase their lottery odds as the season rolls along. Sharpe in that case could get more minutes, especially if Claxton is moved at the deadline.

Add Sharpe in deeper leagues if you can stash him, otherwise pounce if you see that he’s playing.