Thursday Night DFS Dunks: The Replacements

Welcome back! That was meant for my boy Lance Stephenson who signed a 10-day contract with the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday. If you’re returning to read this article just know that I appreciate you too! Let’s get back to Lance. He last played in an NBA game on April 4, 2019, for the Lakers. His best season in the NBA was back in 2013-2014 when he averaged 13.8 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 4.6 assists. Now, at the age of 31 and two years removed he’s rejoined the Association among many, many other players because of the recent covid-19 outbreak. Here’s your second chance Lance, don’t blow it.

If you’re new to this article, I break down tonight’s 11-game NBA slate and give you my starting five for both FanDuel and Draftkings.  These will be my core plays (guys I’ll be playing in my lineups with my money) for hitting the cash line in 50/50s and double-up contests.  If you’re looking for GPP winning plays you’ll have to follow me on Twitter (@TimmySperos) and then we can talk. At the end of the article, I’ll have a pool of three to five players I like that you can use to fill in the rest of your lineups. It’s important to have a process in DFS so let’s review the strategies you should be thinking about.

Want the best tools and projections to help dominate your league? Check out the Stocktonator, the byproduct of Rudy and machine making love. Click HERE for a FREE 3-day trial.

Strategies

1. Focus on teams with high game totals and a high pace of play. On tonight’s slate, the Lakers play at a pace of 101.1 possessions per game (fastest in the league) while the play the Spurs play at 99.9 pace (6th fastest).  This game has a 223.5 (third biggest) and a 1.5 spread in favor of the Lakers. A great game to attack tonight.
2. Select players from high game totals who play lots of minutes and have high usage rates or FPP (fantasy points per minute). Over time, when comparing two players with similar salaries, choose minutes over a hot hand. It’s the correct thing to do.
3. NBA may be the toughest DFS sport to play for a few reasons.  Number one is time. Throughout the season players will get ruled out for rest, injury, or because they think the Earth is flat. This tends to happen shortly before lock or even after lock as we experienced last year. It’s imperative that you make yourself available for the 15 minutes before lock or you may lose some money for a simple user error.   

Ok now that you know the basics, it’s time for tonight’s slam dunks.

Tonight’s 11-game slate: 

The Starting Five

Delon Wright, PG, ATL, (DK $4200, FD $4500)

Delon Wright comes as the best value at the PG position tonight. He’s not a high usage guy at only .77 this season but he will be starting and likely play 35+ minutes tonight for a depleted Hawks. Trae Young, Lou Williams, Kevin Huerter, Clint Capela, Danilo Gallinari, and TLC are all OUT. This leaves Wright, Bogdonavic, and second chance Lance as the Hawks’s only ball-handlers. Wright scored 26.25 Draftkings points last night in 39 minutes vs. Orlando. It is a back-to-back but for someone who’s only played 15 minutes per game, his legs should be fresh. Also, the price has come down $400. Lock him in.

Cam Reddish, SG/SF, ATL (DK $4600, FD $4300)

Reddish battled some injuries last season and played in only 26 games but the former 10th overall pick is healthy and has a huge opportunity in front of him right now. We know the Hawks situation, so the minutes will be there tonight. Last night vs. Orlando he tallied 51 Draftkings points in 42 minutes! At 29.8% he had the highest usage on the team and I expect that to be similar tonight vs. Philadelphia who is worst in the league against scoring wings.

Khris Middleton, SF, MIL (DK $8000, FD $7700) 

The Bucks are coming off a back-to-back where they smashed Houston by 20 points so Middleton only needed to play 28 minutes last night. He’s averaging 1.12 fantasy points per minute with Giannis on the court and is at 1.35 with Giannis off, a big bump. In a game I expect to be a little closer than last night’s contest we should see Middleton’s minutes over 30 tonight. Do the math, he has a great chance to record 40+ fantasy points at a nice mid-level price tag.

Otto Porter Jr, SF/PF,  GSW (DK $4800, FD $4500) 

The Warriors play the Grizzlies tonight who just got Ja Morant back. Both teams are top 12 in pace while the Grizzlies have surprised me on a number of occasions this season without Ja Morant. Golden State will play without Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole, Andre Iguodala, and Damion Lee, who is the latest victim of health and safety protocols. This opens up big minutes for Otto Porter tonight. OPJ averages .92 fantasy points per minute on the season playing with the second unit but tonight he gets a chance to run with the starters as the second scoring option behind Steph. I expect his FP/M to increase in a game where he’ll likely play 30-33 minutes. Really nice value here.

Joel Embiid, C, PHI (DK $12000, FD $10700) 

Embiid is a beast. He’s hit the 70-point mark on Draftkings multiple times this season and has a 50% usage rate with Shake Milton, Danny Green, and Georges Niang off the court (they are all out tonight). He’s averaging 1.43 FP/M on the season and will face the Hawks who rank second-worst against versatile big men. These teams played on December 3rd and Embiid recorded 55 Draftkings points against Clint Capela. Capela has been ruled out tonight so Embiid gets back up journeyman Gorgui Dieng to feast on. Could be a big night here.

Other guys on my radar:

• LeBron James, SF/PF,  LAL (DK $11300, FD $11400) 
• Nikola Jokic, C, DEN (DK $11300, FD $11400)
• Hamidou Diallo, SG/SF, NYK (DK $4400, FD $4800)
• Dejounte Murray, PG/SG, SAS (DK $10300, FD $9900)
• Josh Hart, SG/SF, NOP, (DK $6200, FD $6800)

In addition, I’ll likely have a few shares of Lance in GPPs tonight. At $3200 on Draftkings I’ll give him a second chance. Here’s Lance with my little bro at the 2013 All-Star game.

Feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions or need help with lineup building. Good luck tonight and I’ll see you guys next week!

– Cousin Timmy

@TimmySperos