Does anyone remember Zion Williamson? Strange as it sounds, he still exists most clearly in my mind as a cannonball at Cameron Indoor. Basketball Reference tells us that there have indeed been three professional seasons for Zion, but none of them have been able to dislodge the image of him in the clean white and blue from my mind, youthful explosiveness so undeniable that the shoes on his feet crumble when he steps. Teenage Zion made quite an impression.
While Williamson exists in amber in my memory, the team that employs him — no, not Nike, the New Orleans Pelicans — have been mired in 30-win muck down on the bayou for three straight seasons. The last time the Pels won more than 34 games, Jrue Holiday was still on the roster. Despite last year’s underwhelming 31-41 mark, there’s the unmistakable feeling that something is going on down here. Head Coach Willie Green seems to have it, and the roster is buying what he’s selling. Coming down south revitalized a stagnating CJ McCollum; Brandon Ingram continues his dance of steps forward and back and sideways and forward again; Herb Jones and Jose Alvarado walked out of the second round/undrafted realms and onto the floor ready to guard just about any living soul; JV is still a hulking bully with pretty soft touch — there’s sizzle here. The common understanding of momentum would lead us to believe that another step forward is coming, and that’s before you factor in the big fella’s return. What happens now that the team that pulling together to patch a hole finally gets the All-NBA piece back?
I have no idea, really, but I’ll sure as hell watch it.
Notables Out: None
Notables In: Dyson Daniels, Dereon Seaborn
Depth Chart
| PG | CJ McCollum | Jose Alvarado | Devonte’ Graham | Dyson Daniels |
| SG | Brandon Ingram | Kira Lewis | Garrett Temple | Dereon Seaborn |
| SF | Herb Jones | Trey Murphy II | Naji Marshall | |
| PF | Zion Williamson | Larry Nance Jr. | ||
| C | Jonas Valancuinas | Jaxson Hayes | Willy Hernangomez |
Guards and Wings
Change is a good thing, but don’t just take my word for it. Look at what a change of scenery did for CJ McCollum when the Blazer lifer came down Nawlins way for the last 26 games of the season:
- Blazer CJ — 20.5/4.3/4.5/1 on 43/38/70 shooting splits
- Pelican CJ — 24.3/4.5/5.8/1.3 on 49/39/66
It was an ideal circumstance to walk into for CJ, as much of the existing Pelicans backcourt was either hurt (Kira Lewis), unproven (Jose Alvarado), or proven ineffective (Devonte’ Graham.) McCollum left town having been a second banana for his whole career and stepped into a tailor-made role where his operating with the ball in his hands was the best option by far. Even with the added bump in counting stats, CJ finished the year as a top 50-ish player, territory that is hardly unfamiliar to him. Despite his history as a bucket-getter, McCollum’s efficiency has never been good, and though inexplicable to me, the FT% has been unsightly for three years running. A guard who’s below-average in both percentages will leave you with a bit of a problem when integrating him onto a lot of fantasy rosters, but the assists, points, and threes should hold up okay. New Orleans was good for McCollum’s steal rate, but considering his longer track record there, I’m not exactly sold. He seems safe enough as a sixth-rounder, but I could see the numbers slipping a bit with the return of big Z and the continued emergence of some of the supporting cast.
Speaking of that supporting cast, how much fun was Jose Alvarado‘s hounding of the Point God in last year’s postseason? As much joy as Grand Theft Alvarado was responsible for last season, he’s not going to be a fantasy viable player unless life gets really challenging in the Big Easy. There’s a great steal rate, sure, but there’s limited usage and little else that he brings to the table outside of a smattering of dimes. Similarly, after three consecutive seasons of dwindling playing time and output, the bloom has come off the rose for Devonte’ Graham. If there are minutes for Graham, I suppose there will also be some triples. There just won’t be enough of either to be viable.
Kira Lewis Jr., who never has been healthy enough to have much of a job to lose, might have just been Wally Pipped by New Orleans’ latest lottery pick Dyson Daniels. Lewis is still working his way back from shredding his knee last December, and the selection of Daniels can only be read as a turning of the page. The Aussie teenager was limited by an ankle injury in the preseason but generally looked good while he was out there. Over the offseason I remember hearing a Pelicans beat writer saying that Dyson would be taking someone’s job as early as this season, it was just a matter of time. My guess is it will be Devonte’ Graham who is the odd man out. Beyond playing time concerns, Graham was already off my radar, but I’m looking to acquire Daniels in dynasty formats. Dyson almost certainly won’t get enough run to be under consideration for streaming in the early season, but it could happen later. He’s bouncy.
Another look at that Dyson block 🤯 pic.twitter.com/6vHc5OHGrr
— New Orleans Pelicans (@PelicansNBA) October 15, 2022
Brandon Ingram and his erratic fantasy output continue to vex me. I haven’t drafted him once this season (maybe ever?), mostly because I don’t feel like I have a good idea of what’s coming back to me if I do roster him. Sometimes there are threes, sometimes there are rebounds, sometimes there are steals — but only sometimes. The points and dimes are steady, but the FG efficiency also tends to wax and wane. Drafters begin considering him as early as the fifth round, but most of the time I feel more comfortable with waiting (or drafting Khris Middleton) and pursuing other options at forward. It seems totally possible that this is the year where BI really puts it all together and we get good rebounding, steals, and three-point shooting to go along with the more bankable stats, but it almost certainly won’t be happening on one of my rosters. Add in the bite Zion will make in usage and staying away gets easier and easier.
Herb Jones was a defensive revelation as he played his way into 69 starts as a second-round rookie. Stocks were the name of the game last season (1.7 steals, 0.8 blocks per) and if nothing else, I would expect steady defensive production from Jones again this year. As with all the other major pieces of the Pelicans rotation, Zion’s return will siphon off some of Herb’s already minuscule usage rate (13.9% last year.) It’s hard to see where exactly the improvement comes from Jones as a sophomore, especially with so many better options on the court offensively. I’d take Herb if I needed a defensive superhero, but my expectations are already in check for any production beyond that.
Perhaps not for the standard 12-team league draft, but keep an eye on what happens with Trey Murphy III. A deadeye from deep as a rookie last year, Murphy has had a strong preseason and the additional spacing that he offers should be all the more important with the return of Williamson and the defensive attention his presence in the paint will attract. A strong start to the season could make him a priority add early.
As for Naji Marshall, Garrett Temple, and Dereon Seaborn — you’re probably okay ignoring them for now.
Bigs
It’s all about health for Zion Williamson. In the phenom’s one full season he was knocking on the door of an All-NBA team on the back of 27 points, 7.2 boards, 3.7 dimes, 0.9 steals, and 0.6 swats. A scoring beast, he’s presently healthy and could be a steal in the fourth (or third) round of fantasy drafts if he can stay on the floor and some of the defensive stats tick up. Williamson possesses elite FG% and points upside, and if you’re punting FT% and can find the defensive stats later as an insurance policy, it wouldn’t be a shocker if Zion’s on a lot of championship teams. There’s a risk to go along with the tremendous upside, of course, but in the right build, Zion makes a lot of sense at this price. It might be the last year that you’ll be able to get him at this value. I could be buying.
Add Jonas Valancuinas’ name to the list of Pelicans who could see their numbers erode a bit with the return of Williamson. JV averaged 30+ MPG for the first time in his career last season and posted beefy big-man stats with the opportunity. A career-best 17.8 points per game, 11.4 boards, and strong percentages powered Jonas to a top-50 finish. There aren’t a ton of blocks to be had here, and I would expect the gaudy points and boards totals to dip in response to Zion’s return, but JV feels like a rock-solid center and a good bet to be in the neighborhood of the top-50 again — just make sure to get your swats somewhere else.
Larry Nance Jr. and Willy Hernangomez could both be in line for decent usage should Williamson return to street clothes, but I don’t think they need to be prioritized as long as the roster is intact. Unfortunately, fourth-year big man Jaxson Hayes was unable to escape the preseason unscathed, suffering a torn UCL in his non-pitching elbow. At the time of writing, he’s rehabbing and slated for a re-evaluation once the season gets rolling, but surgery is definitely in play here. A UCL tear is what kept Paul George on the sidelines last year, so a lengthy absence for Hayes is definitely on the table.
Hi Mr. Hooper,
Good morning.
Finish my draft last night for 12 team H2H, Standard Scoring.
I liked my first picks, but then I loss some focues. Anyway, below results (pick 3):
pg: Gilgeous Alexander (4)
sg: Bane (5)
g: Jamal Murray (6)
sf: Butler (3)
pf: Embiid (1)
f: Anthony Davis (2)
c: Poetl (7)
utl: Keegan Murray (8)
utl: Monte Morris (9)
bn: Cameron Johnson (10)
bn: John Wall (11)
bn: Jaden Ivey (12)
Didnt like my AD pick followigng Embiid, but at Pick 22 I saw good value.
I like Poetl at 7th, but then other blah I think.
Im low on 3s and in assists.
What are your thought?
In waiver I can take Eason. Is he better option than one of the above?
many thanks,
Chris
Mornin’ Chris, thanks for dropping in.
I think I know how you feel with regard to AD. I don’t really believe that he’ll be healthy this year, but if he does stay on the floor then the value at 22 is undeniable. Between Davis, Joel, and Jakob, you should be set with swats, and Keegan might kick in a few as well.
On the whole, I like the group. There’s some injury/load management concern with SGA, Murray, Butler, Wall, et al., but when they’re out there, it should be a productive team. You’re right in thinking that you’re a touch light in both threes and assists, but as long as everyone is healthy, I don’t think you’re too far off. Given how hard it is to find dimes on the wire, I might turn my efforts toward finding threes instead.
Jaden Ivey looks like the first drop for me, though I don’t know if it should be for Eason. In general, rookies aren’t usually all that productive, guards especially. Jaden could really do a number to your FG%, so I’d keep an eye on that. I like Eason a lot in the long run, but there’s too much deadwood (Gordon, Tate, Garry Bird, KJ Martin) between him and the minutes he needs to really shine. If you added Tari now, I don’t know how much immediate help he would provide and you’d feel obliged to hang on to him until he pops. If you think you can wait on him, I’d try to be the first one to pounce once an Eric Gordon trade finally goes down. Until then, I’d take a look at what kind of 3s help you can find on the wire. It shouldn’t be too tough to find.
Cancel everything I said about not adding Eason. Eric Wong is in on him, which means you should at least take a shot.
I accidentally submitted a comment from the wrong account with my full name. May I trouble a moderator to delete it and I can re-submit?
I’ll reach out to Son and have him take it down. At present, I do not have the power
you should be set now
Thank you!
Yep. This is that comment!
Was scrolling through some articles and saw Mr. Hooper and was like, well I have to say hello and follow-up on an earlier exchange!
12-team, 9-cat, h2h. $100 waiver budget. No IL slot.
Team: Lamelo, Conley, Monte M, Booker, Bane, D.Hunter, Bojan, Jerami, Jaren, Horford, Gobert.
It was a less than ideal draft because I drafted 12th (with Ball and Bane as keepers at a cheaper price). Between draft position and keepers there were no 1st round values left when I started so I stuck with our plan and went with Booker at 12 and Gobert at 13. I did suffer from a couple of unexpected runs on assists and steals – perils of winning and therefore drafting at the end of a serpentine draft – so I had to over draft certain guys.
Do you see any waiver wire add/drops from these undrafted guys below? Wall, D.White, Dosunmu, Caruso, B.Brown, LeVert, Duarte, Eason, Jal.Williams, Vanderbilt, Kuminga, I.Jackson, Claxton
The tricky part in my league is that owners ARE very active, waivers clear only a couple of times a week, and any undrafted players added off of waivers you can keep for two years at 11th and 10th round prices, so you definitely don’t want to sleep too much on someone who can be a key contributor (like Bane) and be with you for three seasons on the cheap. At the same time, you don’t want to give up on a potential contributor, even if merely as a solid role player and glue guy, only to speculate on fool’s gold. Welcome any feedback!
Hey Joe,
Thanks for catching me up here. Sounds like a competitive league. I’m glad we could get you a W last year with that tough of a crowd.
I see what you mean about assists and steals, but after keying in your roster into Son’s team tracker, I think you might want to monitor those boards too. You did a nice job compensating for Rudy’s FT drain, but JJJ and Horford aren’t giving you a ton of support on the glass.
Given what you’ve said about keepers, the players that I would be zeroing in on are Eason, Kuminga, and Williams. I-Jax was someone I also considered, but since you’ve got JJJ and Rudy, the blocks boost won’t be as potent. Tari looks like a stud and should be an asset with steals this season. It’s a little crowded there at the moment, but I just got done with a pod with Son and Tari came up. Evidently, the great Eric Wong picked him in the 9th round of a $1k league, which is just about as good of an endorsement as you can get. For what it’s worth, I added Jalen Williams in the Razzball writer’s league and have him on a keep-forever dynasty team. I’m high on him and, like Eason, he should see enough time to be a factor this year. I could see swapping Hunter for either one, though admittedly I’ve never been much of a fan of his.
Good point re blocks. I guess I tend to not focus too much on them because there’s always a slew of SF/PF guys who can get you a boost in boards, but assists and steals are hard to find on the wire even when you’re willing to sacrifice some in other areas.
Yeah, not sure why I added Hunter last. I think I was just tired (late draft for me). I can swap for Eason. Too early to consider ditching Monte or Conley for Jalen? Conley I guess is a question mark because he’s likely to get traded, who knows to where, but he has a reliable place as a role player when healthy with assists, steals, and percentages that usually don’t kill you. Monte has some upside, depending on whether Beal lets him ever have the ball. Jalen has more upside than both, but also more downside because it’s OKC, they have Giddey and Shai (when healthy), and they’re always a threat to trade anyone for whatever reason. I really like I-Jax, but it’s a question of how long it will take Indiana to trade Turner, and whether them trading Turner will really mean it’s I-Jax time. I’d be more inclined to consider him if Jaren has a setback, since we don’t have a spot for injured players, so housing someone until January may get you knocked out of the playoffs.
Would welcome any further thoughts on swaps but also on how much to bid out of the $100. Don’t want to blow it all early, but then again, those $14 I spent on Lamelo (who was dropped onto waivers by an impatient owner) seemed a lot at the time, but what a bargain.
I meant good point re: boards*
Conley would be the drop for me (after Hunter, of course). I don’t really believe that he’ll stay in Salt Lake all season and it’s hard to figure that he’d be traded to a situation where he’ll have more opportunity. He’s a smaller guard too, and the cliff tends to come up quickly on those guys. Monte is younger and has the upside of killer AST:TO numbers. Considering both are more floor plays, I think Morris might actually be more stable.
As for Eason and Williams, I suppose it’s a matter of how much of a cushion you feel like you have for this year. Long term, I think the path is cleaner for Tari and he pairs well with the rest of that young group. He also has a shot to help out with your steals concern as early as this season. I’d make him the priority, even if only slightly.
I drafted Jalen Williams on a tanking dynasty team this offseason and I’m super excited about what he’s done this preseason (and, FWIW, traded Tari on draft day for Dyson Daniels and Jake LaRavia. There’s a bit of buyer’s remorse there, but DD looks like a future stud and accumulating as much talent as possible was the priority. We’ll have to see about Jake.) I’d spend, I don’t know, 12 bucks for Tari and be ready to hang on tight through some potential lean times until Eric Gordon and/or KJ Martin get moved. After that, giddyup.
Hope that helps.
What’s up Mr Hooper?
Just had my 12 team, 8 cat, h2h, (with 4 keepers) draft. Went with a punt FT% and a soft punt on 3PM (this was mostly due to how the draft developed, not my original design). What do you think of the squad:
PG- Curry (K)
SG- Jrue (5)
G- Lowry (10)
SF- Wiggins (7)
PF- Zion (K)
F- Bam (K)
C- Giannis (K)
UT- Poeltl (6)
UT- Draymond (8)
UT- Mitchell Robinson (9)
B- Nic Claxton (11)
B- Vanderbilt (12)
B- Ayo (13)
B- empty
IR- Chet (14)
I’ve got a claim in on Santi Aldama, watch listing Kessler Walker & Jalen Duran. Any constructive criticism or players you think might fit this build well?
Thanks in advance & happy hoops season!
Happy hoops season indeed! I hope the first night of action got you as fired up as I am.
I think that’s a really strong group you’ve got — killer keepers. I wonder what the thinking is behind trying to add Walker Kessler and Duren. Between Giannis, Bam, Poeltl, MRob, and Clax, I don’t see how you’re ever losing blocks. Adding Kessler or Duren seems like overkill unless you’re trying to load up on future keepers with block upside.
Aldama should see some run early. It’s hard to trust any injury timeline when it comes to JJJ, but the reports have largely been positive. You might be flipping Santi over in the near future. Considering your soft punt of threes and the strengths you’ve got with the big men, I’d be looking at finding some triples on the wire. They’re usually out there.
Kesssler & Duren are mostly keeper speculation adds, yeah. Going to just watch list them at this point.
And your call on Aldama is about the same as my thinking. I figure to use that as a stream spot mostly. Figure he might have 100-120 value for some time. But yeah – perhaps streaming triples even. I could use another SF eligible piece, but the available options are very “meh” without seeing how rotations shake out!
Thanks, Mr Hooper!
Do you think Duncan Robinson gets 25+ min run in MIA? Or Jovic? Joe Harris feels like kind of a fit but his health is up in the air still too.
Of the two, I think Robinson has a much better shot at seeing that much time. Duncan played 25 MPG last year and when you considered how much the Heat have invested in him, I’d be surprised if his leash was shorter than that this year. They’re going to want him to work.
Jovic getting heavy minutes as a rookie would surprise me, even though Miami has a bit of a hole at the 4. I could see a lot of different players getting time there over the course of the season but maybe not one clear cut “guy.”
I feel you about Harris. I remember hearing that his ankle was sore/painful after starting to ramp up and that Nets were taking it easy with him. You’d figure that he’d be able to slide into a floor spacing role in Brooklyn once he’s right, but it doesn’t sound like he’s quite there yet.