Yikes, after the top 10 things become a hodgepodge of nitpickery!  I think I made that word up, but I’m not going to let my creativity wane during the offseason!

After putting out my Way Too Early Top 10 last week, I fought some procrastination and internal debates to get 11-20 down.  Fought some ranker’s block!  It’s like writer’s block, except I’m a lot less cool than Hank Moody in Californication.  Ranker’s block doesn’t score me the Hollywood A-listers!  But with a bottle of booze and in a plain black T, I truck forward thanks to the insistence of Runkle.  Here’s my Way Too Early Top 20 for the 2015-16 Fantasy Basketball Season:

11. Kyrie Irving Uncle Drew, member of The Big 2!  Not the Big 3 anymore with Kevin Love not gelling, amiright?!  Who woulda thought Irving would have scored more (21.7) points a game than in 13-14 with LeBron James returning home, while not giving up too many dimes at 5.2 APG (down from 6.1).  Sure it was a career-low, but with the TO also going to a career-low (or career-best, semantics!) 2.5, we will take it!  Career-high in 3PTM and games played at 75 help as well.  I could actually see him improving on last year’s numbers and he was top-10 in total value as it was.

12. Paul Millsap Unlike Kyrie and his flashy ball-handling and 50+ Pt games, Trillsap is the quiet assassin.  Silent but deadly!  Wait, that’s actually LeBron…  Millsap came out 18 or higher in both per-game & total value metrics in both Yahoo and Basketball Monster algorithms, and I think comes with some inherent safety and multi-cat prowess.  13-14 & 14-15 were very comparable giving him back-to-back top 20 finishes, and while owning any Hawks after their DNP-fests late might seem unappealing, I doubt the Cavs aren’t right there (double negative police are after me!) record-wise through next season.

13. Klay Thompson Ughhhhh, well with a Razzie to his name due to my skulduggery, I guess I have to rank Klay serviceably after his breakout 14-15.  5th in total value last season, Klay got to a career-best 3.1 3PTM while shooting a career-best FG% (46.3%), and that’s on top of the big strides made in the defensive stats (1.1 Stl 0.8 Blk).  Plus he’s only missed 6 games the past 3 seasons.  I could see some owners drafting him a few higher, but I still believe in ThrAGNOF assets late in drafts/streaming and you don’t need the treys too early in H2H.

14. Rudy Gobert Here we go Razzball Nation, it’s time to start pumping the Rudy bandwagon!  Wait, why would a bandwagon be pumped?  It runs on pump-up sneakers power!  Once Enes Kanter finally got the boot, Monsieur Elbow had that monster second half averaging 11.1/13.4 and 2.6 blocks.  Didn’t kill you at the FT line at 63.3% and also chipped in a steal.  The elite defensive numbers, huge rebounding output, and the boost in FG% makes him the #1 Bloc Party I’m jamming with.

15. John Wall A dimebag per game = fantasy owners high as a kite!  Wall showed us a great deal by averaging right at 10.0 APG, but it came at a cost.  While the TO didn’t change too much, he lost a half a three from his already low 3PTM numbers (1.3 down to 0.8) and lost 1.7 PPG.  It’s not huge, but my first round rank of Wall last year was envisioning a slight downtick in TO and uptick in treys.  As it stands, it’s tough to take a PG that doesn’t bury 3s much higher, and assists have become more plentiful in a more robust PG class in 15-16 drafts.

16. Blake Griffin – Speaking of plentiful assists, the dimes from Blake ain’t fake!  See, rhyming – I’m not the best at…  (Same with sentence construction!)  My rap album “JB, ya see?!” didn’t do too well…  While Blake lost some points and boards, he shot up to 5.3 dimes and went down from 2.8 to 2.3 TO the past two years.  Mmmmmm, I love me A:TO ratio turnarounds!  It’s like a reacharound, but less sloppy.  And post-ASB, Blake went ham at the FT line hitting 76.7% of his freebies.  That used to be a big knock on his game, but no mas!  His lowly Stl/Blk also lagged early, but picked up to 1.0/0.9 in the second half (sure 16 games is a small sample since he missed some time with that elbow infection, but it includes a few games pre and post injury).

17. Jimmy Butler Everyone’s favorite Mr. Bucket (sorry, Charlie…)!  Just crowned the Most Improved Player, I think we see a comparable 2015-16.  The injury bugaboos are the big concern though.  67 then 65 games the past two seasons suffering a variety of ailments, but at least we know ol’ Tibby Tibs will run his guys to death with Jimmy B playing 38:39 and 38:40 MPG the past two years.  Consistent consistency!  Are the big minutes causing injuries?  I doubt it, but you never know.  That big leap forward in FT attempts (and making 83.4% of them) is mad saucy, plus mmmmmm.  A:TO turnarounds!  2.6:1.5 in 13-14 to 3.3:1.4 last year.  It’s marginal, but the key of all these stats is only 1.4 TO from a multi-cat stuffer.  Worth the risk of another sub-70 game season at this point.

18. Serge Ibaka Well, back-to-back top-10 ranks and Serge has finally fallen down.  It was a brutal start for Serge averaging sub-46% from the field in the first half with the rebounds falling even further down.  But in his brief stint alongside Enes Kanter (11 games), Serge ditched the 3s and got the blocks back over 3.  He’s still young at only 25, but off that knee procedure that ended 14-15 early, I still worry that the blocks continue to fall as they’ve regressed four straight seasons.  All that said, I could see #18 being a tad higher than a lot of other boards – FT% (albeit low volume) + I’d say 0.8-0.9 3PTM + 2.0 BPG is an unparalleled combo.

19. Paul George This might be the most epic question of 15-16 drafts… Where to take PG13?  To me, this even feels like a little bit of a leap.  I’ve been notoriously anti-George – I was on the pump-the-brakes bandwagon after he was a monster in the first half of 13-14 (then he went sub-40 FG% cold in the Pacers collapse) – and even at his peak I don’t think he’s a top-12 guy.  So at 19, I’m guessing he’s right back to his best, which will certainly take positive reports all through the offseason and early preseason play.  Plus it’s encouraging to hear the Pacers want to go a little faster-pace and play George at some 4 next year.  Anything would be better than seeing David West and Roy Hibbert lumbering around all the time!

20. LaMarcus Aldridge Sure he’s got a lot of tread on the tires, but L.A. will have just turned 30 heading into the 15-16 season and I have no concerns he will still be a sure-fire 2nd rounder.  Well, he was 14th in per-game value last year according to BBMonster, so I guess there is a smidge of risk, but it mainly boils down to if he’s still with the Blazers.  Really anywhere else he goes would slow his tempo.  That said, he introduced a lot more of the deep ball (0.5 3PTM) and doesn’t hurt you in any cat.  It’s low-end in the steals and blocks, but they’ll both be at or near 1 and he doesn’t turn it over.  If the 3s bump up to closer to 1 per game and he maintains everything else, he’ll easily finish around the top-12 if he stays healthy (missed 11 games last year and 13 in 13-14).

 

There you have it!  21-50 will be out next week, lead by the Gasol brothers and Razzball’s own Draymond Green.  I mean, we more-or-less made his career amiright?!  #OccupyDraymondGreen baby!  I hope everyone is enjoying the playoffs, and happy Summer Razzball Nation!

  1. Lasandro says:
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    Fantastic bra! I gotta cop that album of yours.. perhaps I’ll find some cheap copy here in ‘Nam

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Lasandro: I dunno man, even the bootlegs I don’t think sold well!

  2. Dante Green says:
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    i was gonna ask where would u rank gobert, hassanity and drummo, and I think I already got the answer! Love the list man! I agree with where u ranked LMA, the low blks really is a bit annoying!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Dante Green: Yup they are, but I think a few more 3s will really help his value. 20-30 gonna have both Hassanity and Drummo, plus Gasol guys, plus Draymond, PG is a lot different than last year with them all a bit down since there’s so many!

      • Dante Green says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Your thoughts on Hassan man? I mean with Bosh coming back at full strength next season.. I love the guy but with bosh in the picture hassan becomes the 4th option on offense behind goran(if he signs with miami), wade and bosh.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Dante Green: Well we’re not really drafting him for much offense, and not like Goran or Wade are known for strong helth, and Bosh usually is but off this serious medical issue. I’ll have him below Drummo which may make him high 30s, but not by much

          • Dante Green says:
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            @JB Gilpin: yea I too have him behind Drummo, and at around late 20s to early 30s! I hope these other two young guns, Nurk and Len, develop into something! We need a super sleeper for next season!

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
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              @Dante Green: Nice! Yeah I’ll like Nurk a lot more than Len, but will like both. Still thinking Tjones could be a good one!

            • Lasandro says:
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              @JB Gilpin: You know I love ya man but how the hell is TJones gonna be a good sleeper pick next season, if he wasn’tthe best this last one (due to injuries, yes)? Smoove has the second highest usage on that squad, Dwight is rounding into form, and they’d be happy giving Capella 10-15min stints to continue developing him. I seriously doubt he gets the touches to do much. I see him having a Henson-like season: super talented with too little touches. He should still block and grab a few brds, but those 15-20pt nights surely are behind him now.

              It’s gonna be hard for me to trust Nurk. They’ll need to play him 30min per regardless of how crappy he may be early on. I think it’s a confidence thing with him. Len could be a Jonas V type guy with way more blocks and perhaps less pts, so thats exciting. Who else in the land of bigs? Im curious to see how Noel fares with Embid (possibly) back. What about them Laker bigs? Jabari returning could crush the value of a few of those Bucks, considering he likes the ball in his hands. A few thoughts…

              • JB Gilpin

                JB Gilpin says:
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                @Lasandro: Well, disagree with most of that. Dwight doesn’t really matter since Tjones can’t play C. With Jones and Smoove healthy, Capella isn’t gonna matter. Motiejunas is off a major back issue and might play backup C. Totally disagree on your scoring assessment, even with all the missed time and easing in he scored 11.7 this year. Plus Josh Smith is a free agent. If HOU wants a PG, they’ll likely let him walk.

                Other dudes – Nurk – yeah I’ll like him but not too high. I’ll have him over Len, who had major blocks droughts. I’ll like Noel 50ish again. Ewwwww Lakers. Jabari might not be back until a month or two in, but will be following his recovery,

                Oh – love ya too!

              • Lasandro says:
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                @JB Gilpin: Hm.. well you’ve got my TJones boner back to half-mast. Here’s hoping what you say is true. I mean, damn, I completely forgot about Motey too! There’s just a glut of bigs there. But let’s just assume Smith is back next season (he and Dwight work well on those drives and alleys), you still see Jones getting solid mins and usage? If dude does indeed average 15/9 on great %s and 2+ blocks and under a 3, yeah, I’m in.

                Safe to say that picking any of the Bucks next season in shallows may come with huge risks, based on all the mouths they have to feed with Parker back. Middleton was prob the only one worth rostering in a 8 teamer league like mine.

                Think Wiggins continues his ascendance next season? I sure hope he gets the keys to the O, regardless of Martin’s and Pek’s existence. Oh and I dont think I’m ever drafting Ricky again 🙁 He absolutely burned me, despite some gaudy lines here and there. Oh and speaking of PGs, lets see where Ty ends up. Have always been a fan of his and his FTs were real good this season. Hoping he lands somewhere that appreciates his talent

                • JB Gilpin

                  JB Gilpin says:
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                  @Lasandro: Glad to give ya Tjones Viagra! Yeah I just think Jones is the best pure talent there, maybe not Josh Smith in his prime, but yeah.

                  I still think Antetok will be 8 team worthy. Past that, yeah probably not.

                  Yup I’ll have Wiggins very high. Loved that second half, although KMart there sucks.

                  I hope Ricky can stay healthy man, love him…

          • Dante Green says:
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            @JB Gilpin: man I love Rubio, he hasn’t been the healthiest but I’m willing to take a chance on him. I mean compared to the likes of KD, Beal, Jrue, Brolo, mann those guys are high risks as fcku and I’d be really hesitant to draft them! But with Rubio, fcku it, if he’s open in the 5th rd of our 12-team league I’ll draft him in a heartbeat.

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
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              @Dante Green: Yeah I agree, that sounds about right. But this is a guy I’ve ranked 30ish the past two years, given I was higher than most, but will be a fall. Doesn’t help PG will be pretty loaded – Jordan Clarkson, Reggie, etc etc added to the PG pool

  3. Bryce Krispie Treats says:
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    Cant believe that im asking fantasy basketball questions so early, but…

    I have 3 solid keeper options next year. We get to keep 2 players for 3 years.

    Millsap – $21 (last year of eligibility)
    Butler – $10
    Wiggy – $20

    Im leaning butler and wiggins because I drafted them last year and they have full eligibility. Thoughts?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Bryce Krispie Treats: Never too early to start thinkin on stuff! ugghghhhhhh Sophie’s choice! Yeah you gotta keep Butler and Wiggins there for me too, both should be great values again in 16-17

      • Bryce Krispie Treats says:
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        @JB Gilpin:

        Thats what I thought too. Hopefully Millsap keeps his under the radar status, just like he does every year.

  4. Dante Green says:
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    JB I just gotta ask what’s the best number of teams a league should have? I’ve tried 10 teams and for me it’s a bit too shallow. I’ve been in a 12-teamer and it’s just fine, not too shallow and not too deep, but how about 14 or 16? Let’s say for example I drafted Davis and I wanna build around him with guys good in FG, REBS, BLK, STL, PTS; will I be able to do that in a 14-16 teamer leagues?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Dante Green: Oh yeah for sure! Our fav (well Slim and I) is our deep 20 teamer, and even role playing bench guys can help in certain cats – like Andre Miller or Biyombo haha. I’d say if you have enough people interested that wanna play for real, go as big as you can! 16!

      • Dante Green says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Ohh man thanks a lot! Should I change roster from 13 players to 12 or 11, or just stick it out with 13??

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Dante Green: In H2H, I hate odd numbers, I don’t like there being bye weeks. So H2H 12 I think is the way to go or see if you can get one more to get to 14

          • Dante Green says:
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            @JB Gilpin: no man, I mean the number of players in each team! Should I make adjustments on it?? Or nahh??

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
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              @Dante Green: Ohhhhhh haha I’m a moron… Nah I don’t think I would, I like the standard lineups most of the time

              • Dante Green says:
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                @JB Gilpin: got it man, razzball is the best!! Thanks mannn

                • JB Gilpin

                  JB Gilpin says:
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                  @Dante Green: Any time man!

  5. how many points you see rudy score? 10-12?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @swish41: Sure, something like that, but that’s obviously not the reason you want him 🙂

      • @JB Gilpin: obviouslly. i am trying to figure out what numbers he puts . at the 14 spot with 12 pts he has to grab like 14 reb and 3 blk, i think.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @swish41: Yup something like that, also with I’d guess 1.2-1.3 STL (1.0 post ASB last year) and a good FG%

  6. Bgrizzle says:
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    Who would you rather pick up in the last year of a keeper league. Either or will be my 12th and last pick.

    Reggie Jackson or Brandon Knight ???

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Bgrizzle: I think I’m taking Jackson there, he has some risk himself with what Brandon Jennings does (if he stays and is healthy in DET), while if Knight stays in PHO he’s mostly a pure SG and his numbers went down. Definitely could change if Knight goes elsewhere

      • Dante Green says:
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        @JB Gilpin: I’m a huuuuge PHX fan, and if they continue with that 2-pg system they will not make the playoffs for the 6 straight season! BK needs to be in a team where he’s the main pointguard, or he’s going to be just like Dragic, standing around the corner waiting for Bled to pass him the ball but this is real life basketball I’m talking about. In fantasy world just like what JB said he won’t be able to duplicate what he did when he was still with MIL.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Dante Green: Yeah I just wrapped up my 20-50 ranks (just moving the guys around) and didn’t have Knight in the top 50. Jackson got to [email protected]Bgrizzle:

  7. Chris says:
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    Griffin over Ibaka AND Aldridge?? Say it aint so!

    The 5ish assists are all good but I don’t know how I feel about picking a big man who shoots a below avg FT% at a high volume and doesn’t block in the 2nd round. You can make the case for improvement in those areas but that’s a BIG IF. Why take that risk in the 2nd round when you have proven guys like Ibaka and Aldridge giving you elite production year after year?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Chris: Hah, it is so! Well actually as I mention, his 77.6 FT% after the break was ABOVE the league average of 75%, and continues to improve. So I don’t think it’s an IF I think he’s shown it. Ibaka losing his good FG% hurts a ton (sure some 3s are nice) and ad I meantion with LA – might leave the Blazers which is cooked in my rank

      • Chris says:
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        @JB Gilpin:

        I agree Griffin has shown that he “can” have an ok FT%, and I can see him creeping to the 74%-75% range, but I am skeptical whether he can eclipse that next year. But I think it is trending in the right direction. For the record, he is shooting 75% right now in the playoffs.

        Also, if you look at Ibaka’s post break stats, he shot 54.7% fg and his blocks started creeping up above 3. I think with Durant, Kanter, and Westy all healthy, his fg% should be trending upwards rather than the other way. I think a lot of why Ibaka started off slow FG% wise was the adjustment of creating his own shot without Durant.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Chris: Well don’t get me wrong, i love Ibaka! I kinda doubt he’ll have an ADP top-20 with how last year shook out.

          Ibaka’s post-break was only 11 games, so some small sample bias there. And also all with Kanter, who isn’t a lock to return. Thirdly, and appropriately thirdly, he only made 3 3s and saw 3PTA fall to 1.4 from 3.6. I’d guess like 48% FG and 1.0 3s with no Kanter, 50% and 0.5 if he stays, which is still down a good bit from 53.5% which was his worst. Just a different player – better in real life but not necessarily for fantasy

  8. Viz says:
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    I’ve been offered Wall for my Kyrie in my keeper league, keep 5 forever, 8 category roto. My other keepers are all in your top 15 (Kawhi, Lillard, Millsap, Gobert). I’m planning on doing the trade because Lillard and Kyrie are very similar fantasy-wise and I can use really use the dimebag from Wall. I’ve been chasing assists for a few years since Lillard and Kyrie are both below average for PG and I feel the main difference between Wall and Kyrie is assists vs 3PM and it’ll be easier for me to replace / stream 3PM. Thoughts? Thanks a lot for the early rankings.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Viz: Ohhhhhh Wall in 8 cat… mmmmmm. Yup I’m taking it, the difference in TO in 9 cat makes them different and indeed Wall fits the need for those big dimebags. Thanks for reading man!

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