Roto Projections, 2024-25 Fantasy Basketball

Another fantasy season is upon us and with drafts slowly but surely starting, it is time for my top156 roto projections, proudly presented for the 8th straight year. Some final adjustments have been made based on the findings from the review of last year’s projections and I’m more confident in them than the Wizards are for their roster winning over 25 games this season.

As always, note that each player’s value presented is their per-game value, so some players will be higher than the position I would draft them, especially in H2H. Injury risk, games played and personal preference are not included, so use them as a baseline for your drafts, but do rearrange them based on your preferences,willingness to risk and team build. A good example of this is Kristaps Porzingis, who I have ranked at no 29, but is obviously injured to start the year and will miss a major part of the regular season. He still will be an excellent per-game player when he returns and this is reflected in his ranking, but we obviously don’t draft him 29th. If you are interested in finding out the method used to calculate the player values, check this previous article of mine. Without further ado, let’s check the projections before I mention some notable players.

#	Name	Value	PTS	3PT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	FG%	FGA	FT%	FTA	TOS
1	Nikola Jokic	0.803	26.3	1.1	12.6	9.1	1.3	0.8	58	17.8	82	5.6	3.2
2	Joel Embiid	0.643	30.9	1.3	10.5	4.3	1.0	1.6	53	19.2	87	10.6	3.5
3	Shai Gilgeous	0.625	29.8	1.3	5.1	6.6	1.6	0.9	52	20	87	8.9	2.6
4	Victor Wembanyama	0.615	23.6	2.1	11.8	4.0	1.4	3.7	47	18.2	81	5.4	3.5
5	Anthony Davis	0.599	24.8	0.4	12.3	3.3	1.1	2.1	55	17.1	80	7	2.1
6	Luka Doncic	0.507	32.5	3.9	9.0	9.5	1.3	0.5	48	23.1	76	8.5	3.8
7	Kyrie Irving	0.472	26.3	3.1	5.1	5.3	1.2	0.5	50	19.7	91	3.9	1.9
8	Kawhi Leonard	0.449	24.2	2.2	6.3	4.1	1.5	0.7	51	17.6	88	4.6	2
9	Tyrese Haliburton	0.444	20.9	3.0	3.9	10.6	1.4	0.6	48	15.5	86	3.5	2.4
10	Jayson Tatum	0.355	27.7	3.1	8.3	4.7	1.0	0.6	47	19.8	85	7	2.7
11	Lauri Markkanen	0.330	23.9	3.1	8.4	2.0	0.8	0.5	49	16.6	88	5.2	1.6
12	Kevin Durant	0.324	25.9	2.1	6.7	4.6	0.8	1.2	53	18.4	88	4.9	3.1
13	Domantas Sabonis	0.319	19.2	0.4	13.4	8.0	0.9	0.5	60	12.6	73	5	3.2
14	Donovan Mitchell	0.317	26.2	3.4	4.8	5.7	1.5	0.4	46	19.6	86	5.6	2.7
15	Jimmy Butler	0.299	21.5	0.8	5.6	5.1	1.4	0.3	51	13.6	86	7.9	1.7
16	Devin Booker	0.285	27.2	2.3	4.6	5.8	1.0	0.4	49	19.5	87	6.6	2.4
17	Chet Holmgren	0.274	17.7	1.7	8.5	2.4	0.6	2.2	53	12.4	80	3.6	1.5
18	LeBron James	0.258	24.9	2.1	7.2	8.0	1.1	0.6	52	17.7	76	5.8	3.3
19	Stephen Curry	0.258	26.8	4.7	4.7	5.4	0.8	0.3	46	19.5	92	4.5	2.9
20	Fred VanVleet	0.244	16.7	3.0	3.9	7.7	1.5	0.7	41	13.5	87	3	1.6
21	Damian Lillard	0.237	25.1	3.2	4.5	7.1	0.9	0.2	43	17.8	92	7.2	2.7
22	James Harden	0.222	19.3	2.7	5.8	9.8	1.1	0.6	43	14.1	87	5.1	3
23	LaMelo Ball	0.221	24.1	3.5	5.8	8.3	1.6	0.3	43	19.7	86	4.2	3.6
24	Paul George	0.211	23.0	3.1	5.4	3.0	1.5	0.4	47	17.2	88	4.2	2.4
25	Anthony Edwards	0.207	26.6	2.6	5.6	5.3	1.4	0.6	47	20.1	82	6.2	3
26	Giannis Antetokounmpo	0.204	29.0	0.7	11.6	5.9	1.1	1.0	58	18.4	66	10.5	3.3
27	Jarrett Allen	0.198	16.1	0.0	10.3	2.4	0.8	1.2	64	10.3	74	3.9	1.5
28	Scottie Barnes	0.195	19.2	1.6	8.0	5.9	1.2	1.3	48	15.1	78	4	2.6
29	Kristaps Porzingis	0.176	19.0	1.8	6.9	1.8	0.7	1.7	50	12.8	86	5.1	1.7
30	Tyrese Maxey	0.174	23.9	2.9	3.4	5.6	0.9	0.4	46	18.2	86	5	1.6
31	Dejounte Murray	0.155	20.3	2.3	5.5	7.1	1.4	0.3	46	17.2	81	2.7	2.3
32	Evan Mobley	0.153	16.4	0.5	9.4	2.9	0.9	1.6	57	11.8	71	3.5	1.8
33	Jalen Brunson	0.142	26.6	2.4	3.5	6.4	0.9	0.2	48	19.9	84	6.1	2.3
34	Trae Young	0.124	27.1	3.3	2.9	11.3	1.1	0.1	43	19.9	87	7.7	4.3
35	Desmond Bane	0.120	21.9	3.0	4.7	4.9	1.0	0.4	47	16.8	88	3.5	2.3
36	Mark Williams	0.120	13.7	0.0	10.4	1.4	0.9	1.3	63	8.8	71	3.7	1.2
37	Jalen Williams	0.116	19.2	1.7	4.3	5.1	1.2	0.6	51	14.5	81	3.3	1.9
38	Pascal Siakam	0.114	21.8	1.1	7.6	3.7	0.9	0.4	53	16.3	75	4.5	1.6
39	Myles Turner	0.113	17.3	1.5	7.1	1.4	0.6	2.1	53	11.8	78	4.2	1.5
40	Jalen Johnson	0.111	17.8	1.5	9.0	4.2	1.1	0.8	50	14.2	71	2.9	2
41	Bam Adebayo	0.110	19.8	0.3	9.9	3.7	1.1	0.8	53	14.5	77	5.4	2.4
42	De’Aaron Fox	0.108	24.0	2.5	4.4	5.3	1.6	0.4	47	18.6	75	5.4	2.4
43	Deandre Ayton	0.096	16.9	0.0	10.4	1.5	0.8	0.8	58	13.3	79	1.8	1.7
44	Alperen Sengun	0.089	20.5	0.5	9.1	4.7	1.2	0.8	54	15	71	5.4	2.6
45	Karl-Anthony Towns	0.088	21.4	2.2	8.2	3.2	0.7	0.7	50	15.1	87	4.7	2.9
46	Jamal Murray	0.086	20.7	2.6	4.0	6.3	1.0	0.4	47	16.4	85	3.2	2.2
47	Rudy Gobert	0.075	13.7	0.0	12.5	1.2	0.7	1.9	66	8	64	4.9	1.6
48	Jaren Jackson Jr	0.073	21.3	1.8	5.7	1.9	1.1	1.8	46	16.1	81	5.8	2.1
49	Derrick White	0.065	15.3	2.5	4.0	4.8	0.9	1.1	46	11.8	89	2.2	1.6
50	Tobias Harris	0.062	18.0	1.6	6.0	3.1	0.9	0.6	49	14.2	87	2.9	1.4
51	Jalen Duren	0.056	14.1	0.0	11.7	2.1	0.6	1.0	63	9.4	77	2.9	2.1
52	Miles Bridges	0.048	20.4	2.2	7.1	3.0	0.9	0.6	47	16.8	82	2.9	1.8
53	DeMar DeRozan	0.048	20.8	0.7	3.9	4.0	1.0	0.5	49	15	86	6.3	1.5
54	Nicolas Claxton	0.047	12.3	0.0	9.7	2.0	0.7	2.2	64	8.4	55	2.9	1.3
55	Isaiah Hartenstein	0.044	9.2	0.1	8.9	2.6	1.2	1.2	62	6.1	69	2.2	1.3
56	Cade Cunningham	0.044	23.4	2.1	5.0	7.8	1.0	0.5	46	19.3	85	4.2	3.3
57	Devin Vassell	0.028	19.5	2.6	4.0	3.8	1.1	0.4	46	15.6	81	3.2	1.4
58	Franz Wagner	0.026	20.3	1.5	5.0	3.6	1.1	0.4	49	15.5	85	4.3	2
59	Michael Porter	0.022	17.8	2.9	6.7	1.7	0.6	0.6	49	13.8	82	1.7	1.3
60	Nikola Vucevic	0.020	16.5	1.1	10.1	3.1	0.7	0.7	47	15.1	83	1.5	1.5
61	Daniel Gafford	0.011	10.2	0.0	6.8	1.5	0.7	1.7	73	6	68	2.1	0.9
62	Keegan Murray	0.008	15.5	2.6	5.7	1.4	1.0	0.7	46	12.6	82	1.6	0.9
63	Zion Williamson	-0.002	22.7	0.2	6.2	4.7	1.1	0.7	58	15.2	71	6.9	2.7
64	Walker Kessler	-0.009	9.4	0.1	8.2	1.1	0.6	2.4	67	6.2	59	1.7	1.2
65	Onyeka Okongwu	-0.010	10.9	0.5	7.5	1.5	0.7	1.3	60	7.1	79	2.4	1
66	Jabari Smith	-0.011	14.9	2.0	8.3	1.8	0.8	1.0	45	11.9	80	2.7	1.3
67	Immanuel Quickley	-0.012	18.1	2.8	4.4	6.6	0.9	0.2	42	14.4	84	3.8	1.8
68	CJ McCollum	-0.012	18.8	3.1	4.1	4.3	0.8	0.5	46	15.2	80	2.2	1.6
69	Trey Murphy	-0.017	13.8	2.8	4.5	1.8	1.0	0.5	45	10	84	2.4	0.7
70	Ja Morant	-0.025	24.9	1.7	5.8	7.7	1.0	0.4	47	19	76	7	3.2
71	Herbert Jones	-0.030	10.5	1.6	3.8	2.3	1.5	0.8	49	7.4	84	2	1.2
72	Bradley Beal	-0.032	18.0	2.1	4.3	4.5	0.9	0.5	51	13.7	83	2.3	2.3
73	Jaylen Brown	-0.033	23.6	2.3	5.7	3.5	1.1	0.4	49	18.5	73	4.3	2.5
74	Mikal Bridges	-0.043	16.8	2.4	4.3	3.0	1.1	0.5	46	12.6	84	3.4	1.7
75	Jrue Holiday	-0.044	13.2	2.1	5.2	5.0	1.0	0.6	48	10.5	84	1.2	2
76	Chris Paul	-0.059	10.6	1.4	3.8	7.4	1.3	0.2	44	9.1	83	1.4	1.5
77	Brook Lopez	-0.061	12.3	1.8	4.8	1.3	0.5	2.0	49	9.4	83	1.5	1
78	Bogdan Bogdanovic	-0.062	17.1	3.1	3.7	3.5	1.1	0.3	43	14	87	2.3	1.6
79	Terry Rozier	-0.063	17.2	2.2	4.1	4.8	1.1	0.3	43	15	85	2.5	1.5
80	Alex Caruso	-0.064	9.6	1.7	4.0	3.4	1.6	0.8	46	7.3	77	1.5	1.5
81	D’Angelo Russell	-0.065	17.7	2.9	3.0	5.9	0.9	0.4	46	13.7	82	2.7	2.2
82	Josh Giddey	-0.066	15.6	1.1	8.1	6.5	0.8	0.5	48	13.6	78	1.8	2.6
83	Brandon Miller	-0.067	18.7	2.6	4.5	2.2	1.0	0.6	46	15.2	83	2.5	1.7
84	Tyler Herro	-0.068	21.1	3.2	5.2	4.9	0.7	0.2	44	17.9	87	2.5	2.3
85	Austin Reaves	-0.069	16.3	2.0	4.6	5.7	0.7	0.3	49	11.9	86	3.1	2.2
86	O.G.Anunoby	-0.069	14.0	1.9	4.6	1.7	1.5	0.7	48	11.1	78	1.8	1.7
87	Dereck Lively	-0.070	9.7	0.0	7.2	1.2	0.7	1.6	74	6	51	1.6	1
88	Tyus Jones	-0.070	11.5	1.7	2.9	6.6	1.1	0.1	47	9.6	81	0.9	1.1
89	Cameron Johnson	-0.071	15.0	2.5	4.6	2.3	1.0	0.3	46	11.4	83	2.4	1.1
90	Jonas Valanciunas	-0.074	13.8	0.6	9.4	2.6	0.4	0.8	55	10	80	2.8	1.7
91	Coby White	-0.075	19.2	2.7	4.3	4.6	0.8	0.2	45	15.4	85	3.1	1.9
92	Clint Capela	-0.075	11.3	0.0	10.2	1.0	0.6	1.3	60	8.1	61	2.6	0.9
93	Trayce Jackson-Davis	-0.077	11.1	0.0	7.1	1.9	0.7	1.7	67	7.1	60	2.6	1.2
94	Ivica Zubac	-0.079	12.1	0.0	9.4	1.3	0.4	1.2	64	8	71	2.6	1.3
95	Mike Conley	-0.080	10.8	2.3	2.8	5.6	1.1	0.2	45	8.2	87	1.3	1.2
96	Amen Thompson	-0.084	11.3	0.2	7.2	3.0	1.4	0.8	54	8.4	70	2.9	1.7
97	Jakob Poeltl	-0.086	11.5	0.0	8.8	2.6	0.7	1.4	63	8.1	57	2.3	1.6
98	PJ Washington	-0.096	12.9	2.0	6.1	1.7	1.1	1.0	44	10.9	71	1.8	1.1
99	Darius Garland	-0.096	19.6	2.4	2.9	7.2	1.2	0.1	46	15.6	85	3.3	3.2
100	Jalen Suggs	-0.101	14.2	2.2	3.5	3.7	1.4	0.6	47	10.8	76	2.4	2
101	Jusuf Nurkic	-0.102	10.8	0.4	11.2	3.4	1.0	1.0	52	7.9	65	3.3	2.1
102	Anfernee Simons	-0.104	21.3	3.2	3.3	5.2	0.6	0.1	44	16.9	90	3.6	2.3
103	Collin Sexton	-0.107	20.3	1.7	3.0	5.4	0.8	0.1	49	14.6	84	5.1	2.3
104	Paolo Banchero	-0.109	22.5	1.6	7.2	5.7	0.9	0.7	46	17.2	74	6.8	2.9
105	Khris Middleton	-0.118	15.9	1.8	5.0	5.3	1.0	0.3	47	12.6	85	2.6	2.5
106	Bobby Portis	-0.119	13.9	1.3	8.1	1.4	0.7	0.4	50	11.4	78	1.6	1.2
107	Draymond Green	-0.120	8.4	1.0	7.2	6.4	1.0	0.8	49	6.7	72	1.2	2.4
108	John Collins	-0.121	13.2	1.1	7.6	1.0	0.6	0.8	52	9.9	80	2.3	1.2
109	Ausar Thompson	-0.124	10.6	0.6	7.3	2.1	1.5	1.0	47	9.2	65	2.1	1.5
110	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.130	11.3	1.8	2.7	2.7	1.3	0.6	46	8.7	87	1.7	1.2
111	Brandon Ingram	-0.133	19.4	1.3	4.9	4.8	0.7	0.5	48	14.9	83	4.6	2.4
112	Klay Thompson	-0.133	16.5	3.6	3.4	2.1	0.7	0.4	43	13.3	90	1.6	1.2
113	Al Horford	-0.135	8.0	1.6	6.1	2.4	0.5	0.9	50	6.1	84	0.4	0.6
114	Julius Randle	-0.139	22.9	1.9	9.5	4.4	0.6	0.3	46	17.5	77	6.3	3.1
115	Aaron Gordon	-0.143	14.8	0.7	6.6	3.3	0.8	0.7	55	10.5	66	3.9	1.4
116	Aaron Nesmith	-0.144	12.4	2.1	4.1	1.6	1.0	0.7	47	9.2	80	2.1	1.1
117	Taylor Hendricks	-0.147	9.8	1.7	6.3	1.2	0.9	1.0	46	7.9	80	1.1	1.1
118	Grayson Allen	-0.150	11.9	2.4	3.5	2.4	0.8	0.4	48	8.2	88	1.8	1.1
119	Jonathan Kuminga	-0.160	16.5	0.8	5.3	2.8	0.9	0.6	52	12.2	76	3.9	1.8
120	Zach LaVine	-0.164	19.1	2.3	4.4	3.7	0.7	0.2	45	14.9	85	4	2
121	Dyson Daniels	-0.165	7.7	1.1	5.4	3.3	1.6	0.5	43	6.8	66	1.2	1.3
122	Gary Trent Jr	-0.169	14.3	2.6	2.7	1.5	1.2	0.2	43	12.1	79	1.6	0.6
123	Brandin Podziemski	-0.178	10.4	1.5	6.4	4.2	1.0	0.3	44	9	72	1.3	1.4
124	Jeremy Sochan	-0.179	12.9	1.1	7.1	2.8	1.0	0.8	44	11.5	78	2.2	1.7
125	Deni Avdija	-0.180	16.2	1.4	7.5	3.3	0.9	0.5	48	12.3	74	4	2.3
126	Rui Hachimura	-0.183	14.2	1.6	4.8	1.3	0.7	0.4	51	10.8	74	2.1	0.8
127	Jordan Poole	-0.188	19.0	2.6	2.9	5.2	1.0	0.3	42	15.9	88	3.5	2.6
128	Kyle Kuzma	-0.190	21.2	2.3	6.8	4.0	0.6	0.6	45	18.3	75	3.3	2.6
129	Cam Thomas	-0.194	24.0	2.4	3.5	3.2	0.7	0.2	43	19.6	86	5.5	2.1
130	Keon Ellis	-0.195	7.1	1.6	3.3	1.8	1.4	0.6	45	5.4	75	0.8	0.8
131	Marcus Smart	-0.196	14.5	2.3	3.0	4.0	1.7	0.3	43	11.9	77	2.5	2.5
132	Jerami Grant	-0.196	19.5	2.0	3.5	2.4	0.7	0.6	46	14.4	82	5.2	1.8
133	Jalen Smith	-0.199	11.7	1.2	6.8	1.2	0.4	0.9	55	8.2	72	2.1	1.1
134	Wendell Carter Jr	-0.200	12.3	1.3	7.5	2.0	0.6	0.6	52	8.7	71	2.7	1.4
135	Donte DiVincenzo	-0.201	12.8	2.8	3.3	2.4	1.1	0.2	44	10.3	78	1.2	1.3
136	Jalen Green	-0.202	19.9	2.6	5.5	3.3	0.8	0.3	43	16.4	80	4	2.2
137	Simone Fontecchio	-0.202	12.8	2.5	4.0	1.5	0.8	0.3	46	10	81	1.3	0.9
138	Naz Reid	-0.212	12.9	2.0	5.0	1.2	0.8	0.8	48	10.1	72	1.7	1.3
139	Jonathan Isaac	-0.218	7.6	1.0	5.0	0.7	0.8	1.4	50	5.5	70	1.5	0.6
140	Mitchell Robinson	-0.223	6.5	0.0	9.2	0.8	1.1	1.3	60	4.5	46	2.3	0.9
141	R.J.Barrett	-0.231	21.0	1.7	5.9	3.7	0.6	0.3	50	15.6	71	5.2	2.3
142	Dennis Schroder	-0.231	15.1	1.9	3.4	6.3	0.8	0.2	43	12.5	85	2.9	2.2
143	Zach Edey	-0.234	11.5	0.0	8.4	1.3	0.3	1.6	58	7.9	72	3.3	1.7
144	Norman Powell	-0.239	16.4	2.4	2.8	1.6	0.7	0.3	48	12.2	82	2.8	1.4
145	Patrick Williams	-0.247	11.3	1.6	4.2	1.7	0.9	0.9	46	9.1	80	1.7	1.4
146	Shadeon Sharpe	-0.251	16.1	2.0	4.8	2.4	1.0	0.4	43	13.1	82	3.4	2
147	Malik Monk	-0.264	14.8	2.2	3.0	4.4	0.6	0.4	44	11.8	85	2.6	1.8
148	Alex Sarr	-0.266	11.9	0.7	7.1	1.8	0.7	1.8	46	10.2	71	2.6	2
149	Kelly Olynyk	-0.271	8.9	0.6	4.7	2.8	0.8	0.4	53	6.2	84	2.1	1.3
150	Daniel Theis	-0.273	8.7	0.8	5.6	1.6	0.6	1.1	51	6.9	73	1.2	1.1
151	Jaden McDaniels	-0.274	11.2	1.3	3.3	1.5	0.9	0.7	50	9	73	1.2	1.1
152	Luguentz Dort	-0.275	11.1	2.1	3.8	1.5	0.9	0.5	42	8.6	81	2.2	1
153	Nikola Jovic	-0.288	10.4	1.9	5.0	2.2	0.7	0.4	45	8.2	77	1.5	1.2
154	Andrew Wiggins	-0.301	14.3	1.7	4.4	1.8	0.6	0.6	46	11.7	73	2.5	1.1
155	Scoot Henderson	-0.350	16.6	1.7	3.7	6.8	1.1	0.2	41	14.6	84	3.5	3.5
156	Keyonte George	-0.391	16.2	2.4	3.0	5.1	0.6	0.1	42	13.1	86	3.3	2.8

Notable Players

Anthony Davis: The per game stats don’t lie but I would be uncomfortable taking Davis as high as no5 in drafts. Remember that before last year’s super healthy season he played 56, 40 and 36 games in the seasons before.

Trae Young: A classic victim of the way turnovers greatly reduce the z-value of a player, I wouldn’t hesitate grabbing him in the top15 in H2H leagues but math is math unfortunately for roto.

Mark Williams: The numbers seem to love him but tread cautiously as he missed almost the entire last season.

Bogdan Bogdanovic: I am hyped for him this season and I’m glad the number back that up at no78. His usage and ball handling responsibilities should increase with Dejounte Murray gone.

Jalen Smith: I know I’ve said many times (mostly to myself) never to trust Jalen Smith again but his per game production should be good enough for a top150 finish in the season. I’m ready to be disappointed once again.

Zach Edey: With a particularly weak draft class, it should come as no surprise that the highest ranked rookie sits at just the no143 spot. Edey should have a clear playing path in Memphis and despite not loving his upside, he should be a source of big man stats later in drafts.

Scoot Henderson – Keyonte Goerge: Rookie guards are usually awful in their first seasons and this duo did not break that mold. However, they both finished the season much stronger so they are worth a later round pick to see if they can maintain the momentum.