Another NBA season is beginning and as usual, for the eight year in a row, I am here at Razzball to talk fantasy with you fine folks. As usual and as the first article of the year to kick off the draft season, I’ve been doing a review of last year’s projections in order to make this year’s projections better, as well as to identify potential opportunities and hazards in the upcoming draft. If you are interested to learn about the math behind the process and how I calculate the accuracy of the projections, check the initial article and I’d be happy to answer questions in the comments.

Missed Players

Every year in this portion of the article we summarize the players that are categorized as “misses.” These are the players that have a value difference between the projected and the actual value that is above the standard deviation. Again, if you are interested to learn more, check the first article of the review series here. The first line for each player is my projection from last year, while the second is their actual stats for the 2023-24 season, the third is the difference, and finally the fourth is the difference expressed as a percentage of the respective standard deviation.

Name	Val	Pts	3pt	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	Fg%	Ft%	To
Joel Embiid	0.60	31.9	1.1	10.3	4.2	1	1.6	53%	85%	3.3
2023-24	0.99	34.7	1.4	11.0	5.6	1.2	1.7	53%	88%	3.8
Diff	0.39	2.83	0.28	0.73	1.42	0.18	0.09	0%	3%	0.55
SD%	0.33	-0.56	-0.72	-0.72	-0.35	-0.47	-0.83	-0.98	-0.62	-0.33

Name	Val	Pts	3pt	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	Fg%	Ft%	To
Shai Gilgeous	0.45	30.9	1.2	5	5.7	1.4	0.9	50%	87%	3
2023-24	0.92	30.1	1.3	5.5	6.2	2.0	0.9	54%	87%	2.2
Diff	0.47	-0.80	0.07	0.53	0.50	0.60	-0.01	4%	0%	-0.84
SD%	0.62	-0.87	-0.94	-0.79	-0.77	0.76	-0.99	-0.45	-0.96	0.03

Name	Val	Pts	3pt	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	Fg%	Ft%	To
Anthony Davis	0.44	24.8	0.3	11.2	2.8	1.1	1.9	55%	76%	2.1
2023-24	0.80	24.7	0.4	12.6	3.5	1.2	2.3	56%	82%	2.1
Diff	0.36	-0.08	0.08	1.44	0.70	0.10	0.44	1%	6%	-0.01
SD%	0.22	-0.99	-0.92	-0.44	-0.68	-0.72	-0.19	-0.91	-0.36	-0.99

Name	Val	Pts	3pt	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	Fg%	Ft%	To
Luka Doncic	0.32	31.5	3	8.8	8.2	1.3	0.5	48%	74%	3.7
2023-24	0.70	33.9	4.1	9.2	9.8	1.4	0.5	49%	79%	4.0
Diff	0.39	2.38	1.06	0.44	1.60	0.11	0.04	1%	5%	0.33
SD%	0.32	-0.63	0.03	-0.83	-0.27	-0.67	-0.92	-0.90	-0.47	-0.60

Name	Val	Pts	3pt	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	Fg%	Ft%	To
Victor Wembanyama	0.07	18.2	1.1	9.6	2.1	0.6	2.4	46%	81%	2.4
2023-24	0.60	21.4	1.8	10.6	3.9	1.2	3.6	46%	80%	3.7
Diff	0.53	3.28	0.70	1.03	1.76	0.64	1.18	0%	-1%	1.26
SD%	0.81	-0.48	-0.32	-0.60	-0.20	0.87	1.16	-0.93	-0.83	0.55

Name	Val	Pts	3pt	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	Fg%	Ft%	To
Mitchell Robinson	0.00	7.9	0	9.2	1	1	1.8	69%	49%	0.8
2023-24	-0.32	5.6	0.0	8.5	0.6	1.2	1.1	57%	41%	0.8
Diff	-0.32	-2.31	0.00	-0.72	-0.42	0.19	-0.67	-12%	-8%	0.01
SD%	0.09	-0.64	-1.00	-0.72	-0.81	-0.43	0.23	0.81	-0.07	-0.99

Name	Val	Pts	3pt	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	Fg%	Ft%	To
Andrew Wiggins	-0.08	18.1	2.4	5.1	2	1.1	0.8	47%	63%	1.4
2023-24	-0.39	13.2	1.3	4.5	1.7	0.6	0.6	45%	75%	1.2
Diff	-0.31	-4.85	-1.12	-0.58	-0.32	-0.51	-0.22	-2%	12%	-0.17
SD%	0.07	-0.24	0.09	-0.78	-0.85	0.49	-0.59	-0.73	0.39	-0.79

Name	Val	Pts	3pt	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	Fg%	Ft%	To
Markelle Fultz	-0.11	14.1	0.5	4.1	6	1.4	0.4	50%	79%	2.4
2023-24	-0.46	7.8	0.1	3.2	2.8	1.0	0.3	47%	70%	1.2
Diff	-0.35	-6.31	-0.41	-0.89	-3.21	-0.42	-0.05	-3%	-9%	-1.24
SD%	0.21	-0.01	-0.60	-0.66	0.47	0.24	-0.91	-0.57	0.07	0.52

Name	Val	Pts	3pt	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	Fg%	Ft%	To
Kevon Looney	-0.15	7.1	0	9	2.1	0.6	0.6	61%	60%	0.4
2023-24	-0.53	4.5	0.0	5.7	1.8	0.4	0.4	60%	67%	0.7
Diff	-0.38	-2.61	0.00	-3.34	-0.30	-0.22	-0.21	-1%	7%	0.28
SD%	0.31	-0.59	-1.00	0.29	-0.86	-0.35	-0.62	-0.79	-0.14	-0.66

Name	Val	Pts	3pt	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	Fg%	Ft%	To
Richaun Holmes	-0.23	9.8	0.1	6.4	1	0.4	0.9	62%	78%	1
2023-24	-0.62	5.0	0.0	4.6	0.6	0.3	0.5	56%	72%	0.6
Diff	-0.39	-4.84	-0.08	-1.85	-0.38	-0.13	-0.43	-6%	-6%	-0.40
SD%	0.34	-0.24	-0.93	-0.28	-0.83	-0.63	-0.22	-0.02	-0.35	-0.51

Name	Val	Pts	3pt	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	Fg%	Ft%	To
Seth Curry	-0.24	13.3	2.6	2.4	2.2	0.7	0.1	47%	90%	1.1
2023-24	-0.65	5.4	0.9	1.6	1.0	0.5	0.1	39%	90%	0.5
Diff	-0.41	-7.96	-1.70	-0.78	-1.15	-0.18	0.04	-8%	0%	-0.60
SD%	0.41	0.25	0.65	-0.70	-0.47	-0.48	-0.92	0.22	-0.96	-0.26

Name	Val	Pts	3pt	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	Fg%	Ft%	To
Jalen Johnson	-0.28	8.9	0.9	6.3	2.3	0.7	0.8	47%	70%	1.3
2023-24	0.13	16.0	1.3	8.7	3.6	1.2	0.8	51%	73%	1.8
Diff	0.41	7.07	0.37	2.41	1.33	0.50	0.04	4%	3%	0.50
SD%	0.41	0.11	-0.64	-0.07	-0.39	0.45	-0.93	-0.35	-0.68	-0.38

Name	Val	Pts	3pt	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	Fg%	Ft%	To
Scoot Henderson	-0.28	16.4	1.4	5	6.6	1.1	0.4	43%	77%	3.3
2023-24	-0.61	14.0	1.4	3.1	5.4	0.8	0.2	39%	82%	3.4
Diff	-0.33	-2.44	0.00	-1.87	-1.18	-0.33	-0.19	-4%	5%	0.12
SD%	0.13	-0.62	-1.00	-0.28	-0.46	-0.05	-0.65	-0.30	-0.44	-0.85

The percentages highlighted in red represent the stats that I missed on and were greater than the standard deviation. The closer the percentage is to 100, the greater my miss, whereas negative percentages indicate that I succeeded in the prediction. If you see a -100%, you are legally obliged to buy me an authentic Jake Tsakalidis jersey from the 2003 Memphis Grizzles and send it to my last known address, as this indicates a bullseye prediction with no error. Obviously, I only included in the above array the “missed” players, but I can assure you I did the exact same procedure for the remaining players projected that were classified as “hits”. Some players that stand out from the misses are:

Joel Embiid: What a season from the big man. No particular stat had a sharp decline but he performed better than expected in all statistical columns. I do expect a slower season this year with Paul George in town so draft with caution.

Shai Gilgeous: The projections for Shai were pretty accurate but what changed his value was his steals jumping to 2 per game. Combine this with elite efficiency with only 2.2 turnovers and the math checks out on why he was a miss. I expect his steals to drop to a more realistic number this year however.

Luka Doncic: After averaging 2.8 triples in the previous season, he exploded for 4.1 in the 2023-24 season. His ft% also rose by 4% and looks like a safe top5 pick.

Victor Wembanyama: I am notoriously safe when projecting rookies, because the vast majority of them are overdrafted in their first season. Wemby is an alien though so he was on another level than the one I projected and a lock for being drafted with the first 3 picks this year.

Markelle Fultz: Despite a pretty encouraging 2022-23 season, the wheels fell off last season for Fultz as he averaged only 21 minutes and 2.8 assists. His value was always carried by his playmaking and he has still to find a contract in the NBA. I would love to see him with a Euroleague team, if his future is not in the NBA.

Jalen Johnson: I included him in the top155 players in last year’s projections, so you can’t blame me entirely, but boy was I wrong about his impact on the court. His playing time exploded from 15 to 34 minutes per night and you will need a top50 pick to get him this year in fantasy drafts.

Conclusions

The whole process concludes with the calculation of the absolute mean difference in value between my projection and the actual stats of the 2023-24 season. As a reminder, the smaller this number, the more accurate the projections. This number by itself does not mean much, but it can be used as a comparison with the accuracy of my projections from the previous years. For reference, this number was 0.156 in 2018, 0.16 in 2019, 0.162 in 2020, 0.149 in 2021, 0.155 in 2022 and 0.133 in 2023.

And would you look at that, the number for this year is also 0.133 so it is a tie with last year’s projections in terms of accuracy. That’s quite good, since both are my personal best in terms of accuracy since I started imposing this mental torture upon myself since 2018.

Let’s hope this trend continues and the Top 155 Roto Projections for 2024-25 that I will be publishing in the coming days are as accurate or even better.

 

 

 

Thank you for making it all the way to the end and let me know if you have any questions regarding the process used or any other offseason fantasy questions in the comments below!