Welcome back to Thursday Night DFS Dunks! Tonight we pay homage to the late Christopher Wallace, aka the Notorious B.I.G., with the Brooklyn Go Hard theme. The Nets play host to the Sixers at Barclays Center in Brooklyn and will likely only dress eight players for the second game in a row. Blake Griffin played 31 minutes and David Duke Jr dropped 40 Draftkings points vs. Toronto on Monday. Now, the price has come up a bit for all the Nets, Patty Mills is up to $6,600 (yikes), but they are still the best value on slate and Biggie is still the best rap artist of all time.
If you’re new to this article, I break down tonight’s NBA slate and give you my starting five for both FanDuel and Draftkings. These will be my core plays (guys I’ll be playing in my lineups with my money) for hitting the cash line in 50/50s and double-up contests. If you’re looking for GPP winning plays you’ll have to follow me on Twitter (@TimmySperos) and then we can talk. At the end of the article, I’ll have a pool of three to five players I like that you can use to fill in the rest of your lineups. It’s important to have a process in DFS so let’s review the strategies you should be thinking about.
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- Focus on teams with high game totals and a high pace of play. On tonight’s slate, the Rockets play at a pace of 101.13 possessions per game (fastest in the league) and have the highest turnover percentage in the league. It makes sense to get some Knicks in our lineup tonight.
- Select players from high game totals who play lots of minutes and have high usage rates or FPP (fantasy points per minute). Over time, when comparing two players with similar salaries, choose minutes over a hot hand. It’s the correct thing to do.
- NBA may be the toughest DFS sport to play for a few reasons. Number one is time. Throughout the season players will get ruled out for rest, injury, or because they think the Earth is flat. This tends to happen shortly before lock or even after lock as we experienced last year. It’s imperative that you make yourself available for the 15 minutes before lock or you may lose some money for a simple user error.
Ok now that you know the basics, it’s time for tonight’s slam dunks.
Tonight’s four-game slate:
|Game||DET @ IND||PHI @ BKN||NYK @ HOU||WAS @ PHX|
|Time||7:00 PM ET||7:30 PM ET||5:00 PM ET||6:00 PM ET|
The Starting Five
David Duke Jr, PG/SG, BKN, (DK $4000, FD $6100)
This FanDuel price is really aggressive after just once game but I think DDJ has earned it. He had 13 rebounds, two steals, and two blocks, on his way to 40.25 DraftKings points. The important thing here is the minutes, 37, while Cam Thomas who HAD been in the rotation only played 22 minutes. DDJ shot 4-for-13 with no threes. If he can make a few more shots tonight the Sky’s the Limit (another Biggie song).
Derrick Rose, PG/SG, NYK (DK $6300, FD $6200)
The former MVP has played some inconsistent minutes this season but over the past three games, he’s been at 33,36 and 34. With Kemba Walker out of the rotation, Barrett and Grimes likely out again for Covid protocols, we should see Rose in the starting lineup eclipsing that 30-minute mark. Rose has a 23% usage rate and averages 1.07 fantasy points per minute when Barrett is off the court. With Houston running at the fastest pace in the league and on the second leg of a back-to-back, Rose is in a ceiling situation.
Kessler Edwards, SF, BK (DK $4000, FD $6300)
Edwards, a second-round rookie, played only 12 minutes in his career before Monday’s game vs. Toronto. He logged 44 minutes and put up 38.5 Draftkings points. Unlike teammate Duke Jr., Kessler shot the ball well going 10-for-17 and 3-for-6 from downtown. The Nets did just sign veteran Langston Galloway to a 10-day contract but I still see Edwards earning 30 minutes tonight.
Kevin Durant, SF/PF, BKN (DK $12300, FD $12000)
Mo money, No problems. The highest price on the slate and the highest of the season for KD is well deserved. He averages 1.57 fantasy points per minute to go along with an insane 35% usage rate when Harden is off the court. Coming off back-to-back 70 fantasy point games, Durant should play 40 minutes and dominate the game once again. You can lock him in all your lineups.
Nic Claxton, C, BKN (DK $3900, FD $5900)
Claxton averages .8 fantasy points per minute on the season but with Harden and Aldridge off the court it bumps up to .95. He played a season-high 27 minutes on Monday against a small Toronto team. Tonight the Nets play Philly and Joel Embiid. He’s going to need to be on the floor a little more because I don’t think rookie Day’Ron Sharpe will be able to handle much of Embiid. I see Claxton hitting playing 30 minutes and at $3900 he should hit value. The price on FanDuel is a bit high for cash game consideration but if with plenty of opportunities to record 2-3 blocks he’s a nice play.
Other guys on my radar:
- Saban Lee, PG, DET (DK $4200, FD $4600)
- Cade Cunningham, PG/SG, DET (DK $8600, FD $7900)
- Alec Burks, PG/SF, NYK (DK $7100, FD $5500)
- Alperen Sengun, PF/C, HOU (DK $5500, FD $5800)
- Joel Embiid, C, PHI, (DK $11400, FD $10500)
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions or need help with lineup building. Good luck tonight and I’ll see you guys next week!
– Cousin Timmy