I’m pleased to announce that the Razzball family has a new baby bot. We’re calling him Stocktonator and he’s programmed to assist (motherf***in’ pun!) season-long and DFS fantasy basketball players all while wearing uncomfortably short shorts that only just conceal his ball bearings. (Shoutout to JB for the Stocktonator visual)
The methodology behind Stocktonator’s projections (today’s games + next 6 days + a 7 day total) is as follows:
- Create ‘per 36 minute’ rate stats for each stat category using past performance backtested to determine proper weighting – e.g., yesterday’s game has higher weight than 80 games ago.
- Use a Player Reference file updated hourly to determine a player’s status – e.g., Healthy, Questionable, Out, etc.
- Model likely starters based on active players and project player minutes using previous games and starter/bench role. Adjust/redistribute player minutes so that team minutes sum up to 240 + an OT adjustment (closer games more likely to go to OT).
- Replaced modeled starters with actual starters if the lineup has been posted. (Shoutout to malamoney for his invaluable help on this task!)
- Adjust player rate stats based on opponent defense.
- Adjust player/team possessions based on team’s average possessions/game and opponent possessions/game.
- Adjust player rate stats based on deltas between Vegas projected team points and Stocktonator’s projected team points.
- Apply rate stats to projected minutes.
- Tiny adjustment to player points based on deltas between Stockonator’s team point projection and Vegas point projection. Please, blog, may I have some more?