Sleepers. Breakouts. Busts. Bargains. Overrated. Underrated. That’s about all we think about in the weeks (months, for many of us) leading up to the fantasy NBA season. Even if your methods are sound, you’re not going to be right about all of them. Of course, that’s mainly due to injuries that directly affected the number of games played or indirectly affected a player’s role. But despite that, I thought it would be fun to review the season’s biggest overachievers and underachievers. Pat yourself on the back for good ones. Know that we feel your pain caused by the bad ones.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

You’re excited to draft Zion Williamson next fall, aren’t you? Well, here are his per-36 stats that I posted last week:

If you loved The Matrix: Reloaded and P.O.D. as unabashedly as I did 15 years ago–and you definitely didn’t–then this song immediately jumps into your head when gazing upon those numbers, as the chorus goes: “Dreaming of Zion…”

Okay, we know those numbers aren’t happening… at least not for a few seasons (winky face). But even the slight possibility of two-thirds of that production and all the hype around him is enough to get people reaching for him in… I’m guessing the second round? Is that smart? How about Luka Doncic? Seems like he’s bound for a second-round ADP, too. Will that be wise?

Today we’re looking at rookie production once again, as well as that of this season’s sophomores in hopes of remembering how risky it is to gamble on young and/or unproven players regardless of how exciting they may be. My general advice is to stay away. I know, I know. They’re so shiny and full of upside. And if you’re in a keeper/dynasty league, you can sit back and enjoy watching the young players as they improve. But in a redraft league, here’s why you’re better off letting someone else overpay/overdraft rookies.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

It’s crunch time fantasy ballers! These are the games that make or break your season. A lot of guys who have been reliable stat-stuffers all season disappear or are rested down the stretch and waiver pickups come up with career performances. Bam Adebayo has been fairly reliable for a while, but came up huge last night going 16-11-8-0-4-5 on 6-of-11 shooting and 4-for-4 from the line. Hassan Whiteside is in Eric Spoelstra’s doghouse for one reason or another, which has opened the door for Bam to flourish. It’s all about the adds and drops at this point, so I’m not gonna get into all the big-name superstars. So let’s dive on into the daily notes, and the game-changing performances in the fantasy basketball playoffs. BAM!

Please, blog, may I have some more?

This past week was a frantic one. Injuries to key players wreaked havoc for H2H leagues. Many last seeds overcame the undisputed first seed favourites, which is why owners both love and hate the head-to-head format. I particularly enjoyed discussing in the comments about readers’ leagues and how diligently they prepared for the week, in an attempt to maximize their teams’ games and subsequently improve their chances for a win. This week we have some very high-profile names as Sell candidates, but a man’s got to do what a man’s got to do. It’s playoffs time after all!

The candidates from last week were overall helpful, with Mikal Bridges contributing close to 3 steals per game and Moe Harkless also bringing the hustle stats. The one player that stood out however was Jalen Brunson, who has the starting spot locked up in Dallas and is playing heavy minutes. He looks like the real deal and his playing time will be safe going forward with the Mavs in player development mode. Finally, Tim Hardaway Jr. saw an increase in minutes and triples made, but his fg% is still a major problem and Tyler Johnson got injured so there is zero incentive to hold onto him.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

The fantasy playoffs are finally here. If you are a roto fan, like me, this does not mean much apart from a slight focus to the categories you stand to gain or lose some points. But for my H2H people out there, this is when the real season begins. Every game and every stat counts and players that are not performing or have a medium-term injury are not welcome any more. Be aggressive with your adds and drops and don’t keep players “for the next matchup” unless you are absolutely sure there will be a next matchup. Because most fantasy leagues are past their trade deadline, this article and all the rest until the end of the season will focus more on adds and drops to the waiver wire and much less on trade targets.

Taking a look at last week’s candidates, the Grizzlies played just 2 games, so Delon Wright can not be adequately judged. He looked good in both these games and I still like him due to the potential of a Mike Conley shutdown. Harry Giles was average at best and the return of Marvin Bagley does not help, while both Danny Green and Malik Beasley proved worthy Sell suggestions, as there are better options available on your wire. As mentioned above, the time for hard but necessary cuts is now, so if a player is underperforming don’t hesitate to get a hot free agent in his place.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

For some of us fantasy basketball players, this week doesn’t matter much. We’ve locked up our playoff spots and are just waiting for them to begin. For others, these last few games are critical to seeding. If you own Karl-Anthony Towns, you’ve most likely locked up a playoff spot by now, because he’s been a beast all year. If that’s your situation, you probably just wanted the game last night between the T-Wolves and the Wizards to come to an end, but it went into OT and KAT hurt his knee in the waning moments of the game. Although it doesn’t seem to be serious, he is still headed for an MRI and the Wolves could play it safe with him given their place in the standings. This is obviously bad news if your playoffs start next week and you don’t have a first-round bye. Towns played exceptionally well prior to the injury going 4-40-16-2-2-1-1 on 15-of-25 shooting and 6-for-6 from the line. More will be known in the coming days regarding his knee, but this would be the worst possible timing, as he’s been cruising all year.

On a lighter note, here’s what else went down last night in the NBA:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

As the season winds down and we jockey for position in roto leagues or load up on categories in the head-to-head playoffs, it’s imperative that we track down some category specialists to get us over the top. And with so many new fantasy contributors due to injury or tanking, the specialists aren’t necessarily the same old names. Fortunately, that makes some of them available in most leagues.

Let’s get right to it. Looking at per-game numbers for the last month, which takes us back to the trade deadline, here are the best likely-available guys to grab. Note that I skipped turnovers. Since those are so sporadic, I’d just go with the season-long numbers there. For head-to-head matchups, you might even be able to just sit a few players at the end of the week that can’t help you in any other categories to win turnovers.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

It must be hard to be the second fiddle night in and night out. Constantly being ignored and written off while your teammate garners all the praise. I think the most obvious dynamic duo of this kind in the NBA is Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. A slightly less obvious one is the front court duo of Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert.  Gobert almost always has a better fantasy line and puts up the gaudier defensive numbers and Favors’ stats would easily benefit if Rudy were to go down with an injury or if he was on another team. Well, for one glorious night, Robin saved Batman and got the villain. Favors went off for the line of 23-18-0-1-3-2 on 10-of-12 shooting and 3-of-4 from the line and led the Jazz to a victory over the Bucks. Derrick Favors is a man who has enjoyed a solid, if unspectacular NBA career. He’s one of the few remaining players who have played for the New Jersey Nets, a team I remember fondly. He’s actually been with Utah for nine years and has been a staple in the starting lineup for pretty much all of that time. He’s shooting a career best 57.8% FGs and is having his best blocks season since 2016. So today, take a second to think about the sous-chef, the vice president, the Derrick Favors’ of the world and how important they really are.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

If you want a guaranteed chuckle, watch this Al B. Sure! video. Ha! Gotta love the late-80s and early-90s. As much as we clown now, though, Al B. Sure! was a star back then. The above song was No. 7 on the Billboard Hot 100 and he was nominated for Grammy and AMA awards. There’s another Al that gets clowned on as well: Al Horford. Why? Click HERE. Ha! Too funny. He also seems to be underrated and underappreciated in the fantasy community. Well, last night he reminded us all why he’s so damn good…

PTS REB AST STL BLK TOV 3PT FG FT
21 17 5 2 3 0 2/6 8/21 3/4

Over the past four games, Horford has been the #6 player in fantasy. On the season, he’s top 25. Many view him as a better real-life player than fantasy asset, yet since 2010, Horford has ended as a top 20 player five times and has never finished below #43 on a per-game basis. Al B Good for Sure!

Here’s what else I saw last night:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

The All-Star Break means three more weeks, or 2.5 more matchups, until the head-to-head playoffs begin in most leagues. And even for Roto-Leaguers, we’re already 70% of the way through the season. At this point, you know your teams. Or, at least you can if you take a few minutes to examine them. Odds are that there are stat categories that hardly matter to you by now. Once again, that can be because of a punt strategy or simply because of the way your team and league shook out. For example, though I didn’t intend to punt any categories this season, I ended up dead last in FG% in a roto league with no chance of catching up. That category doesn’t mean anything to me now, so I can ignore it. Similarly, in the head-to-head Razzball Experts League, I have little chance to win assists in any given week. I could try to make that up or I could double down and load up on the other categories. I have a feeling your teams may have also lost some categories early. Or maybe more likely, you have a team that just dominates a category or two to the point that you can ignore it and still win. And even if you don’t find yourself far out in front or way behind in any categories, there are likely a few roto stats where you’re too far away from the teams above and below you to worry about them.

So, today it’s time to check up on who might be available and extra-valuable to YOUR team. We’re not just looking at traditional hot waiver wire pickups. Some of them would apply, but glance through this list after you know what stats you can safely ignore, and see if somebody’s right for you. Consider using the opposite train of thought when deciding who to drop, too. You’re lapping the competition in rebounds? You may want to drop an end-of-the-roster big instead of a worse overall player.

You’ll see the top players I recommend that are available in at least one-third of Yahoo leagues here, along with their 8-category and 9-cateogry punt rankings that are based on the per-game performances of the past 60 days (through 2/12) according to Basketball Monster.

Please, blog, may I have some more?