It’s fitting that my rookie contribution to Razzball would be focused on this year’s rookie crop. I may tend to start off posts with a heavy Kevin-centric focus. I’ve been obsessed with Fantasy NBA for 15 years. Have I won chips? More than zero. Are my fantasy prognostications correct? Ride with me for a solid 50/50 shot at accuracy. What about real basketball? Was I a scrappy D3 player that really understands the game? I’m on the bottom half of bad pickup games, but I can dunk on an 8-foot rim. So yeah, you could call me an expert. Let’s begin!
The promise, upside, and mystery of rookies entice us Fantasy GMs every season. Yet there is statistical history that proves love, like Jon Arbuckle for Veterinarian Liz, generally goes unrequited. Last season there was a boon in productive rookies, with 8 being standard league relevant (12 team, 13 player roster): Ben Simmons (27), Donovan Mitchell (39), Jayson Tatum (42), Lauri Markkanen (66), Lonzo Ball (78), John Collins (92), Kyle Kuzma (116), Jarret Allen (143). While that rookie class surpassed the hype, what's in store for this year’s group? These youngsters carry a lot of weight in dynasty leagues, but for the purposes of this article, we will focus on standard redraft leagues.
For a deep dive in terms of dynasty, check Craig’s rankings here and here.
The Top 10 featured the best of the best, the creme de la creme, the 1 percenters. The Top 25 was more Tom & Jerry, Batman & Robin, Mulder and Scully; the players that pair up well with the first-rounders to form a solid foundation. The Top 50 illuminated the specialists. Now we have arrived at the Top 100, where team composition will dictate each team's direction. As the kids say, hopefully I keep it 100 for this piece. Enjoy!
I’ve been on hiatus, probably since about a month to go in the 2017-18 season. I blame myself, and my schedule, for not being loyal to my readers. My league had ended, as I ranted about in my last piece, but yours probably didn’t. For those looking for the league winners I had been providing throughout the season, I apologize. For those who are reading my column for the first time ever here in July, I applaud and welcome you to Beyond the Glory.
For those who don’t remember, I was literally two game 7 wins away from being the only Razzball writer to have the Rockets and Celtics in the finals, and then I got neither. I would have basked in that glory for at least a year, but being bold only brought me close to brilliance. Either way, I am back and will be knocking out more content in the offseason, before going back to weekly columns for your reading pleasure.
Oh, the offseason. The start of the NBA season is many months away, yet something inside of me is far too excited for fantasy basketball. Call it what you will. We are the midst of the baseball season and fantasy football prep has begun in earnest. With all of this going on, though, I come home at night and turn on the NBA Summer League. I don’t know why, but my remote leads me there. The only reasonable explanation is that I am pumped for the new draft class. I am pumped to see free agent signings and I am pumped for LeB… I promised myself I wouldn’t go there. I am going to hold strong, because in truth, I’m not excited for anything but basketball, fantasy basketball, and Kevin Knox (more on him later) for 2018-19. So let’s get into the recent draftees and who they may compare to this upcoming year, giving us some pre-pre-preseason sleepers.
Welcome back Razzball Nation. What a night the draft was. A true testament to Adam Silver and the NBA for putting on a fantastic spectacle which had more twists and turns than a South American mountain road. One clear message that came from current and former players was that work is only the beginning. For this article, I have also taken a twist and turn, as I bring an email dialogue between myself and Steve Connell about the draft. Steve works hard researching high school and college basketball and provides inspiration for many of the Dynasty Deep Dive articles. Two minds are better than one, right?
Yes Razzball nation, Dynasty Deep Dive is back. I was nearly out for the season, Greg Odon-style, but the current recovery from back surgery has allowed for a swift return back to prospecting and podcasting for your basketball needs on my 2 year anniversary of serving up delicious offerings for those dynasty teams of yours.
The season might be over for fantasy basketball, but now should be the time that your research and scouting clicks into overdrive.
Now for some time of a little self indulgent reflection. For those of you that are new to Dynasty Deep Dive, this was the article in the pre-season that recommended you draft Donovan Mitchell, Jayson Tatum, Lauri Markennan, John Collins and Malik Monk. Ok, it might have took Monk three quarters of a season to get going, but there are many a championship team out there that owe thanks to his late season production. Don't believe me? Check out last preseasons article for yourself: https://basketball.razzball.com/dynasty-deep-dive-roto-rookie-effect-ft
This week I will be focusing purely on where I see potential fits for guys in the upcoming draft class and ease my way back onto the court with a minutes restriction. But it is good to be back and make sure to tune in throughout the off season for your prospect draft breakdown.
We choose to supersize that meal or put cheese on the burger so that our stomachs look like Kuato in Total Recall. That's our choice. We choose to wear the jimmy hat or live dangerously. That's our choice. We choose to draft KAT over Anthony Davis in fantasy. That's our choice. But there is so much out of our control. The world we were born into. Our parents. What we look like. In a videogame, we choose what difficulty level we play on. In life, that has been chosen for us. Some play on hard, while others get cheat codes. Willy Hernangomez hit the genetic lottery. 6' 11" 240 pounds, athletically skilled, and good looking. Sure, he worked his ass off to get where he's at. Lifting weights, running, and plucking eyebrows, but he had a nice base to work with. Last year during his rookie campaign, he was a monster per-36: 16 points, 13.6 boards, 2.6 dimes, 1.1 steals, 1.0 blocks, 53% field goal percentage, and 73% free throw percentage. Unfortunately, he only played 18 minutes per game. Out of his control. Regardless, Willy was viewed as a franchise piece, but then the Knicks acquired Enes Kanter. The minutes plummeted to 9 a game, even though the per-36 numbers were still robust. Out of his control. If you go back to my earlier blurbs regarding Willy, I mentioned that he hooked up with Hornacek's daughter. I'd hit up the Google machine right now. Wouldn't you? I'm still not dismissing that angle, so maybe Willy had some control in the matter. Anyways, after bitching and complaining, he finally got his wish and was shipped to the Hornets. Too bad the Hornets had some guy named Dwight Howard. Can't forget about Cody Zeller as well. So, Willy was not freed and the situation looked identical to the one in New York. But, Zeller is out for the season due to injury and yesterday, Willy played a season-high 22 minutes.
Per-36 in CHA, Willy is at: 17.7 points, 14.9 boards, 1.8 dimes, 1.1 steals, and 1.6 blocks. The Hornets are out of the playoff picture and there's no reason to push Dwight, so Willy should see significant run to end the season. Free at last....free at last....Willy is free at last.
Here's what else I saw yesterday:
When my wife was pregnant, the experience was.....interesting. At least for me. I can't even begin to try and understand what my wife was feeling. All I know is that women are the GOAT. Anyways, after the initial gamut of emotions, things became very business-like. Doctor's office. One month. Two months. Three months. Everything was mapped out and the "ride" was slow and steady. Then, the due date approached and....well, I was Robert DeNiro in Heat. The bags were packed and the routes were mapped out with contingencies for all possibilities. At the same time, though, I was like my five-year-old son in the back of the car on a long trip: "Are we there yet? When will we be there? Why is it taking so long?" Damian Lillard and his girlfriend had been expecting the birth of their child for the past few days. Lillard had been struggling a bit with his shooting efficiency, but the raw production was still there. It could have been the matchups or anxiousness with the pregnancy. Regardless, it was Lillard Time for the whole family last night.
A 40-burger!!! On Damian Jr.'s birthday. Y'all know what time it is.
Here's what else I saw last night:
The Player Rater is a tool to evaluate the performance of a player with only one number. This is not a perfect tool and will not guarantee victory in fantasy, but this is useful to help improve and evaluate your team.
In each category of scoring, a number is calculated to represent the average total in that category. If a player has the average, his rating in that category is 0.00. The numbers represent how much a player is above or below the average.
If the rating is positive, that player is an above-average fantasy player in that category. If the rating is negative that player is below-average. The sum of all ratings in each category gives us a number (the PR), and then we rank the players accordingly.
I have not included turnovers, as the evaluation in PR is very controversial in my opinion, so if you’re in a league with turnovers, you must keep in mind this.
If you have any question let me know.
Anthony Davis gave all his fantasy owners, and fans of basketball, a scare at the end of last week when he exited with a hand injury. His owner in one of my leagues immediately messaged, “Well, there goes Davis, probably season-ending.” Well, it wasn’t season-ending and he made it back just in time to play on his 25th birthday.
Davis and his fantasy owners were celebrating in style as The Brow put up the rarest of triple-doubles: 25 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 blocks! Yes, 25 points on his 25th birthday is pretty friggin’ cool, but watching a guy block 10 shots and also hit a three pointer while only turning the ball over 2 times in 40 minutes is just plain amazing. His final line was: 1/25/11/3/3/10. Wow!
Here is what else I saw on a packed Sunday night:
I met my wife back in 2003. We instantly became rascally, rabid rabbits. Then we got married and decided to do what rabbits do, which is make more rabbits. 15 years and two kids later, the only things that are rascally and rabid are the kids. Please, blog, may I have some more?