Christmas and the new year always represent an inflection point in the NBA. Roughly 30 games into the season, teams have a strong understanding of who they are and who they want to be. This creates the impetus for change leading to trades that will impact fantasy leagues and managers alike.
Most trades will happen right around the February 6 deadline, so in some ways this article could be a bit on the early side. But it’s never too early to start preparing your roster for potentially meaningful changes, especially those of us in deeper leagues where trades will create opportunities for players currently struggling to carve out enough minutes to make a fantasy impact.
Here are some teams likely to shake things up in the new year and the down roster effects that could benefit wide-eyed fantasy managers wanting to get ahead of the competition:
Shake-up #1 – The Chicago Bulls
The Bulls tried desperately to trade Zach LaVine last summer but couldn’t find any suitors. Now that’s he’s healthy and performing at a high level again, the team should be able to find a buyer. A LaVine trade will mean a higher usage for Coby White and expanded roles for Ayo Dosunmu and Josh Giddey.
I had Dosunmu as a candidate to make big leap this season. Despite ranking 71st on Yahoo, it certainly feels like Dosunmu has been a disappointment. A LaVine trade should change that.
Dosunmu is a prime trade target in all formats in anticipation of a LaVine trade. Giddey’s minutes and usage should increase as well. Neither player seems highly coveted in the leagues I’m in, so the opportunity to upgrade is there.
A Nikola Vucevic trade will have some pretty big down roster effects as well. Jalen Smith’s role and usage should increase dramatically. In deeper leagues, I would also expect to see more from the team’s human pogo stick, Matas Buzelis.
Shake-up #2 – The Brooklyn Nets
Much like Dosunmu, a big leap was expected from Noah Clowney coming into this season as well. Much to everyone’s disappointment, that leap hasn’t happen. Yet.
Clowney has played 37, 29, and 29 minutes each of the past three games, thanks in large part to Dorian Finney-Smith’s injured calf, perhaps providing a glimpse of what we can expect should the Nets make a trade.
Clowney had one of his best games of the season on December 23, scoring 19 points on 6-13 shooting, including 4 threes and 5 boards. This was what many of us hoped we get from him heading into the season.
With the Nets having already dealt Dennis Schroeder and likely to try to find suitors for the aforementioned Dorian Finney-Smith and perhaps even Cameron Johnson, opportunities abound in Brooklyn for Clowney and some of his teammates.
Cam Thomas would be the biggest beneficiary of an expanded housecleaning in Brooklyn. His green light will get even greener, particularly if Johnson is dealt.
Jalen Wilson and a healthier Ziaire Williams could see expanded roles as well and become more fantasy relevant should DFS and Johnson land with new teams. Wilson and Williams are currently on just 2% of rosters in Yahoo leagues. Wilson especially deserves your immediate attention, especially in deeper leagues.
Shake-up #3 – The New Orleans Pelicans
It’s hard to know if the looming shake-up in New Orleans will bring massive, big, or only minor change. Rumor has it the Pelicans are shopping Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and C.J. McCollum. If even one of the those guys is dealt it will have down roster impacts.
Of course, Dejounte Murray would benefit if one or more of those players is dealt at the deadline. Trey Murphy III, Herb Jones, and Jose Alvarado would see an increase in minutes and usage as well.
Murphy strikes me as the one who would benefit most from a major roster overhaul. He’s a supremely gifted scorer who could really see his numbers explode in a bigger role.
Further down the roster, Jordan Hawkins and Brandon Boston Jr. could carve out meaningful roles as well.
Due to all the injuries the Pelicans have dealt with this season, we’ve already gotten a good glimpse of what life (and roles) could look like absent one or more of Zion, BI, and CJ. The bigger the shake-up, the bigger the opportunity for some of the players mentioned above, and others.
Shake-up #4 – The Miami Heat
A possible Jimmy Butler deal was largely the motivation behind this article. I envisioned increased minutes and usage for the likes of Terry Rozier, Jaime Jaquez, Nikola Jovic, Kel’el Ware, and even Pelle Larsson.
Well, as I started writing, Pat Riley came out and stated unequivocally the Heat weren’t trading Jimmy Butler.
Statement from Pat Riley
"We usually don't comment on rumors, but all this speculation has become a distraction to the team and is not fair to the players and coaches. Therefore, we will make it clear – We are not trading Jimmy Butler."
— Miami HEAT (@MiamiHEAT) December 26, 2024
So, consider this the shake-up that wasn’t and instead plan for those above.
Tied for first in my 12 team league but any of the top 7 teams look worthy of a playoff run at this point. Here is my squad. Overall impression? What areas give you the most concern? Trade targets?
Note: trying to improve stocks lately acquiring OG and Trayce and have been good on steals but not so much on blocks.
Jokic, Allen, Goga, Duren
Middleton, OG, Trayce, Draymond, N Powell
Maxey, Booker, FVV, Giddey, Ayo
Your team is pretty stacked. My suggestion is look at how your team matches up with the league in all stat categories. You should be able to view a full breakdown on the Team Stats page. Build a moat around 5-6 stats and punt 1-2.
Some of my favorite trade targets at the moment:
-Derrick White (would be a great steals add for you and stuffs the stat sheet)
-Desmond Bane (really stuffing the stat sheet lately and again helps with steals)
-Dejoune Murray (same as above)
-Trey Murphy (been on a tear so might be hard to land but trades will create huge role)
-Coby White (will have the ultimate green light when LaVine gets dealt)
-Herb Jones (steals galore)
Helpful-thank you.
I am top three in FG%, 3s, Rebs, Assists, steals, and points.
6th in blocks, 9th in FT % and 11th in turnovers. I traded Ivey and Deni for OG hoping to help blocks and turnovers and get Trayce/Ayo on the squad….but since that trade, OG has been MIA. White’s out of position blocks has been a target but my overtures have been rebuffed. I will revisit
OG was playing a bit over his head and has always been inconsistent. You could be patient and hope he comes back around or look to deal him.
I would punt FT and TO and maybe try to trade Allen for a big who gets more blocks. Myles Turner and Walker Kessler would be good targets, though Kessler is risky because Utah is going to tank hard at the end of the season and he could miss games.
Allen hasn’t played well recently and his value is down, but can’t hurt to try.
If you want to do a smaller deal you could target Gobbert, Lively, Edey, or Claxton.
Nice! Thanks
Follow up given the advice….4 maximum centers league so tricky…
Are you trading away
1. Allen and Duren for Gobert and Poeltl?
2. For Myles and Gafford?
3. For Mobley?
If there’s a solid player you can add on waivers then go for Mobley. Otherwise, Gobert and Poeltl is solid and I imagine you can make it happen.
Poeltl has been awesome this year and would be the best player in the deal in that 2 for 2.
One thing you may want to consider though is each player’s context. If you’re playing for a title, try to avoid players on teams that are likely to tank and rest players at the end of the season.
Very helpful. I have Ayo on IR so a two for one with Mobley would free up a spot for him once healthy. The wire is thin.
On the topic of shutdowns, I think all players mentioned except Poeltl would be playing down the stretch. WDYT?
Yeah, Poeltl could be risky for that reason.
Honestly, you might just be better off sticking with what you have. While it would be great to add Mobley, you stand to lose a ton of boards if you deal Allen and Duran for him without a viable center addition available on waivers. You’d get slightly better at blocks but significantly weaker in boards.
Hi Maks, I am planning to trade Jalen Williams in a league (he will likely be extremely expensive next year and my team is not competitive this year). 13 team, $200 auction.
A few options I have are:
Jalen and Myles (also can’t keep, but could trade separately) for $10 Brandon Miller and $10 Rozier
Jalen for a $20 Markkanen
Jalen and Draymond (won’t keep) for two of the following: $3 Poeltl, $1 Bilal, $3 Cam Thomas
I am leaning towards Poeltl and Bilal, but please let me know what you think.
Thanks!
Jalen for Ingram $20 also an option if that changes anything, but still leaning with the pair I mentioned above. All prices are next year. Thanks again.
Hey Ben, I would definitely opt for Bilal and Cam.
They are dirt cheap and Bilal has incredible upside while Cam’s scoring and dynasty trade value will benefit you too.
I love Poeltl too at that price but would depend on whether or not you think you can contend next season. If not, he’ll be 31-32 before your team starts contending and reality is this is season and the next will probably be peak yeah for him.
Best of luck!
Thanks! I am hoping to be competitive next year, but wouldn’t be able to hold either beyond next year regardless (maybe a bit longer for Bilal), to the extent that impacts your answer. There is a lot of turnover in players year over year. Does that change things?
Actually, Poeltl would be two years, but the second would be at 9.
Okay in that case it depends on your roster construction. Do you need a center who racks up boards and STOCKS more than you need Cam Thomas’ production? That will determine who to keep
Much appreciated, thanks again!
I’m debating holding Jalen, but I’d only have a matching right. Do you think him for 40-50 out of a 200 draft budget over the next two years is a good price?
Also, where do you think Brandon Miller lands next year? Top 40? Top 30?
Thanks!
13 team league, meant to add that.
Much as I love him as a player, I would not commit a quarter of my budget to J-Will. Especially if you can get Bilal + Poeltl/Thomas for a fraction of the cost.
I’m a huge B-Miller fan. The Hornets are a mess, and nobody on the team seems capable of staying healthy, but Miller could be top 30-40 next season if healthy. He’s ranked 56 on an average basis this season, despite being in and out of the lineup with injuries and not shooting the ball particularly well. Better health and better shooting easily gets him in the 30-40 range imo.
There is some risk there because the Hornets are gonna Hornet, but for $10 I definitely think he’s worth it.
Awesome, thanks for the quick reply – would you take Miller at $10 over Bilal ($1) + either Thomas or Poeltl (either would also be $1)? Next year only.
Thanks again.
Because I feel like the offers are not too far apart, but one of the two owners strongly feels their offer is better…
I would do Bilal + Poeltl given what you’ve shared about your league.
Bilal has made a big leap this season and there’s no reason to think he won’t improve more in year 3. There’s a good chance the gap between him and Miller is very small, so being able to keep Poeltl as well is a huge advantage.
Sounds good, that’s where I’m leaning, thanks again!