We call our daily projection ‘bot Stocktonator because he’s programmed to assist season-long and DFS fantasy basketball players all while wearing uncomfortably short shorts that barely conceal his ball bearings.
Here’s a brief overview of the methodology behind Stocktonator’s projections:
- Create ‘per 36 minute’ rate stats for each stat category using past performance backtested to determine proper weighting – e.g., yesterday’s game has higher weight than 80 games ago.
- We check player status/availability hourly from 6AM to 6PM EST and, from 6-7PM EST, we check every 5 minutes to determine players ruled ‘out’.
- Model likely starters based on active players and project player minutes using previous games and starter/bench role. Adjust/redistribute player minutes so that team minutes sum up to 240 + an OT adjustment (closer games more likely to go to OT).
- Replace modeled starters with actual starters if the lineup has been posted.
- Adjust player rate stats based on opponent defense.
- Adjust player/team possessions based on team’s average possessions/game and opponent possessions/game.
- Adjust player rate stats based on deltas between Vegas projected team points and Stocktonator’s projected team points.
- Apply rate stats to projected minutes.
- Tiny adjustment to player points based on deltas between Stockonator’s team point projection and Vegas point projection.
Our Roto Deluxe package provides daily projections for the next 7 days (today + 6 days), a 7-day average, and Rest of Season Game and Per 36 Minute averages. All the reports can be downloaded via CSV and have simple yet powerful sorting and filtering (e.g., type PG under Pos and it will only show PG, type G and it will show PG and SG, type >20 under PTS and >5 under AST and it will filter to only players projected for 20+ point, 5+ Assist games).
And for a limited time, you can get our NBA Roto Deluxe package for only $19.99. That’s the whole 2018-19 season. You are getting a robotic co-manager for the price of anywhere from 4-20 cups of coffee depending your tastes and location! And there is a free 3-day trial if you have any doubts.
In addition, we have a subscriber-only version of our NBA Lineups page which shows today’s projections for actual lineups when available and, otherwise, projected lineups.
For those of you who play DFS, you can get all of the above and easily downloadable DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo! projections for only $9.99/month. We are still working on negotiations for the optimizer and will add that as a separate offering (at a higher price point) if/once complete.
As always, you can reach me at [email protected] or @rudygamble with questions/suggestions!
