NBA Pace Primer for 2021-22

We are finally about to turn the page from preseason hoops to the the real thing. No more fake injuries and rest days for guys on back-to-backs. No more mixing and matching rotations on the fly. Oh, wait. This is the NBA. We will continue to see that nonsense every night. Regardless, the information that matters is about to shift from what happened last year to what’s happening in real-time on the court. The data we start collecting will be our guide to helping us make roster decisions in fantasy leagues and in DFS

During the 2021-22 season, I will be writing a weekly piece analyzing games through the lens of one of the more fantasy-friendly hoops statistics around: Pace. What follows is a very brief primer on Pace and its applicability for fantasy.

What’s This “Pace” Thing All About?

Let’s say I gave you a couple pieces of information. The first thing I will tell you is that Team A scores 112 points per game while Team B scores 105 points per game. At first glance, we would think Team A is the better offense. Both teams play 48 minutes per night, so the team that scores 112 points per game is a better, more efficient, more fantasy-friendly offense, right? Not necessarily.

The next piece of information I will give you is that Team A’s game average 110 possessions per game, while Team B’s games average 95 possessions. If we assume each team has half of the possessions in any given game, that means Team A scores 2.03 points per possession (112 points in 55 possessions), but Team B scores 2.22 points per possession (95 points on 47.5 possessions).

In this rudimentary example, we want exposure to the better offense of Team B. But what we REALLY want is exposure to Team B in games against teams whose games feature lots of possessions. Essentially you want strong offenses on OR against fast-PACED teams. And that’s where the concept of Pace comes in.

Here are the top-1o and bottom-10 teams in Pace for 2020-2021:

What these numbers represent are how many combined possessions these teams average per game. So to compare the extremes, in 2020-21 the Wizards usually had 52.3 offensive possessions (half of 104.67) while the Knicks had 48.15 (half of 96.32). A difference of just four possessions per game may not sound like a lot, but in fantasy hoops, we aren’t just playing for one game. We are playing for the whole season.

Over the course of a season, that means the Wizards would have 320 extra possessions than the Knicks (82 games x four possessions). So 320 more chances for Bradley Beal to score, 320 more chances for Davis Bertans to hit a three-pointer. But also 320 more chances for Russell Westbrook to commit a turnover or for Thomas Bryant to tear an ACL (it’s a double-edged sword). This doesn’t by any means the Wizards were the best or most efficient offense. Far from it. It just means they averaged the most offensive opportunities from game to game.

But It’s Not Just Offense

Of course, we care a about a lot more than just offensive possessions in fantasy hoops. We roster guys we drafted for rebounds, steals, and blocks. We want those guys to have extra possessions on defense as well. One of the (many) things that makes Giannis Antetokounmpo so valuable in fantasy hoops is that not only did his team rank second overall in pace, but among players with at least 20 minutes played per game, Giannis’s individual pace ranked 20th (104.17). Essentially, if a team of five Greek Freaks played another team of five Greek Freaks, you would have the Wizards’ pace from 2020-21.

The beauty of basketball is in the numbers sometimes, and it usually works out where the mean of a teams’ pace is right around 100. Think of it like OPS+ in baseball where 100 represents exactly average. The San Antonio Spurs ranked 15th last season and they were at a Pace of 99.5. So we can use 100 as a baseline for determining whether teams or players have above or below-average pace. How does this help for fantasy defensive purposes? Take a look at the top-15 players (minimum 20 minutes per game) in defensive rebound percentage last season along with their individual Pace:

Nine of the top 15 had above-average pace numbers in 2020-21. More opponent possessions mean more rebounds and more chances for blocks and steals. As you can imagine, offensive statistics like points and assists are also strongly correlated to pace.

OK, But How Can Pace Help My Hoops Squad?

In the end, it all makes intuitive sense. Teams and players who play faster and earn more possessions – whether by shooting early in the shot clock, allowing opponents to shoot early in the shot clock, forcing turnovers, or committing turnovers – accumulate more of the counting stats we want in fantasy. A typical fantasy league is going to use five or six counting stats, so we can target more players on higher-pace teams to gain ground in a category.

Pace stats also become extremely useful in leagues with weekly roster locks. There is research on what happens when a fast-paced team and a slow-paced team meet during a game. Essentially they cancel each other out and end up at a more neutral pace. In looking ahead to weekly roster decisions, if there are tough calls to be made, you can let the matchups decide. If two of your players are on high-ranking pace teams and they have a series of plus matchups against high-ranking pace teams, those should get the starting spots for the week.

Needless to say, pace is also an invaluable piece of NBA DFS preparation. There have been plenty of people who got wealthy from stacking Wizards-Hawks games that finished 138-127 in the past.

As we start to accumulate pace data in the early part of the season, this weekly piece will analyze what teams and players are benefitting from high-pace numbers and which matchups or individual game environments to target in the week of games to come.

Hit me up in the comments or on Twitter @KirkseySports if you have questions or thoughts on Pace.