Welcome back to another round of NBA DFS! We have a really different kind of slate this Thursday with only two games. This slate is more similar to a playoff DFS type slate with very few options and lots of duplicate lineups. Odds are, a lot of tournament winnings will be split among multiple people with the top scoring lineup. There are only so many viable combinations you can make with two games. Since there are so few options, I’m going to break this down by price range only and give you a few options I like in each range.
Let’s get down to it. Pricing is always (Fanduel/DraftKings). I mostly play tournaments and my picks will always bias towards volatility and upside.
Spend ups ($9k and over)
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,000/$11,400)
I think Giannis has the highest ceiling of anyone on this slate. The Bucks are on the second leg of a back-to-back, which is not ideal, but this is a matchup against the Celtics that they need for playoff seeding. I’d expect both teams to treat this like a playoff game and do the best they can to secure the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference.
Middle-to-High (7k-8.9k)
CJ McCollum ($8,300/$7,500)
I like this price a lot more on DK and would only play him on there. Not in love with this play, but, again, on a two game slate we take what we can get.
Jamal Murray ($7,900/$7,800)
Jamal can be played on either site and is someone I’ll be targeting. As of right now Nikola Jokic is questionable with a calf injury and, if he were to sit, Murray becomes a must play as the #1 option on the Nuggets.
Jrue Holiday ($7,400/$8,300)
Opposite of CJ, Holiday is underpriced on FD and overpriced on DK. He’s a priority play for me on FD and a likely avoid on DK. As I’m writing this he has 45/6/7 at the end of the 3rd quarter against Indiana. He’ll probably be a popular play coming off a performance like that.
Middle ($5k-6.9k)
Michael Porter Jr. ($6,500/$5,900)
Not in love with this play, but especially if Jokic is out, MPJ has a nice ceiling. MPJ is just volatile and entirely dependent on whether his shot is falling, which is always a bit risky.
Aaron Gordon ($6,300/$5,700)
Same deal as MPJ. If Jokic is out he gets a nice usage bump, and even if Jokic is playing he’s a solid play at this price.
Marcus Smart ($6,000/$5,300)
Don’t love his price on FD, but he’s playable there. On DK, he’s underpriced on a slate with so few options and I think he’ll be popular there.
Malcolm Brogdon ($5,700/$5,400)
More of a play on FD for me and definitely a tournament play only. Brogdon’s minutes are not consistent and his floor can be pretty low, but his highs have been high. He’s risky, but I don’t think you can fade him entirely if you’re playing multiple lineups.
Value Town (Under $5k)
Thomas Bryant ($4,100/$3,000) or Zeke Nnaji ($4,000/$3,000)
This is purely a “if Jokic sits” play. If Jokic is out, I’d expect one of these guys to start in his place and whoever is starting is worth playing a near minimum price. If Jokic plays, the only reasonable floor value options are guys like Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton, and Bruce Brown. All three of those options are icky and I’d rather avoid playing them, but if you want to get up to Giannis you’re going to need a bit of salary relief somewhere.
