Shortly before the tip of the Grizzlies’ game in New Orleans on Tuesday night, Memphis beat writer Ronald Tillery reported that coach Dave Joerger “desperately wants to reduce Marc Gasol‘s minutes.” Coming into the game, MG had averaged in excess of 38 MPG over his last five contests – a number that is, by all accounts, quite high for a true big man in today’s National Basketball Association. Fantasy owners of Gasol were probably watching Tuesday’s game to see how Joerger would adjust his rotations to get the prized center some more rest. What did they witness? (I’m so glad you asked…)

Marc Gasol played 42 minutes of other-worldly basketball, posting 38/13/6/0/4. If that wasn’t enough, he shot an even 50% from the field on 22 attempts and was flawless from the FT line on 16 (!!!) tries. Yep, sixteen for sixteen.  He was the only Grizzlies starter with a positive rating (+8) on the night and his team won the game, which goes to show you just how instrumental Gasol was in this one.

(As an aside – perhaps Tillery heard coach Joerger wrong and he said he desperately wanted to reduce everyone but Gasol’s minutes? No other Memphis starter played more than 31. Go figure.)

This is your ultimate sell-high moment on the younger of the two Gasols. If you can score a top-25 asset in return, I think you pretty much have to do it. In trade negotiations you can point to the high minutes, the nice boards & blocks numbers, and the sweet out-of-position dimes. That is, unless you are a believer that Marc can withstand this kind of workload over the course of an 82-game season. I’m never one to predict injuries, but wear & tear is a very real thing, and when you’re dealing with a 7’1″, 265lb monster of a man on the wrong side of 30, miles add up quickly.

I’d be interested to know where Gasol’s owners stand after this one. Are they looking to sell? Or are they going to ride him all the way to the edge of the cliff? (Chime in below via the comments section if you have a buy/sell/hold take.)

Let’s take a look at what else shook down on Tuesday night with 12 teams in action…

 

THE GOOD

Marcin Gortat – The Polish Hammer is starting to come around, slowly but surely. If not for a bit of foul trouble (including a couple really soft calls), Gortat could’ve had an even bigger game than the 15/11/0/1/4 on 7-10 FGs. He abused Timofey Mozgov early and treated Tristan Thompson to much of the same later on. He still played 33 minutes and looked downright dominant at times, albeit against a weak Cavs interior.

John Wall – Just as “The Bad” heading often doesn’t do certain players justice, “The Good” often falls short for guys who have stellar games but are superseded by outstanding games (wait a sec – is “outstanding” better than “stellar” in the hierarchy of superlatives? – I’m gonna say yes, but I’m not confident about it). Anyways, Wall was phenomenal against the Cavs on Tuesday night, erasing the Debbie Doubters out there after his last few sub-par outings. 35/4/10/5/0 on terrific percentages (14-24 FGs, 3-5 3PTs, 4-5 FTs) had him poised for line-of-the-night honors until that big ol’ Spaniard went off versus the Pellies. Sorry Johnny – next time you’ll know to drop a 40 burger if you want the lead.

Jerami Grant – Have yourself a game, young man! Even with the return of Nerlens Noel (14/9/3/1/0 in 26 minutes off the bench), Grant held down the starting four spot and rewarded coach Brett Brown’s faith in him with a terrific 14/7/4/1/4 line. Aside from the blocks those numbers aren’t eye-popping until you see that Grant did it on 6-7 shooting (2-2 FTs) and zero turnovers in 31 minutes. Awesome night for him and a huge part of the reason Philly got their first win of the season in 19 tries.

Robert Covington – After stealing every ball in sight over the last week or so, Lord Covington put up a goose egg in that category on Tuesday night. That’s pretty much the only thing he didn’t do against the Lakers though as he posted 23/5/4/0/2 with five hits from deep, and 50% from the field. Keep an eye on the news reports as he appeared to tweak an ankle with under 30 seconds to go and was a little bit gimpy. The 76ers play the second half of a back-to-back on Wednesday against the Knicks, so if the ankle swells up at all it’s going to be tough for him to suit up.

Alex Len – Sure, it was against the Nets, but 13/14/2/2/3 on 4-7 FGs & 5-6 FTs from the center spot is sweet. Given his injury history, I doubt Len can hold up to many 35 minute nights. But games like he had on Tuesday will go a long way in solidifying a major rotational role even once Tyson Chandler comes back. Stream him for now while there’s no competition for minutes and keep your fingers crossed he carves out a permanent place on your roster with more lines like this going forward.

Brandon Knight – Another nice Knight (err…night) for BK – 26/7/4 with a trio of long balls. No defensive stats but he also only turned it over twice in 38 minutes, so that’s a net win for his owners.

Nikola Vucevic – Nice line for Vuc, posting 18/12/4/2/1 on 9-19 shooting. No trips to the FT line is a bit odd seeing as how he played a high minute total (37). Owners could also do without the four turnovers from their center, but when Nik is giving you the defensive goodies those mistakes are easily forgiven.

Tyreke Evans – Way to stick to that 25 minute limit, Gentry! ‘Reke played 31 minutes and was all kinds of good in his first action of the season. He went for 20/5/10/0/1 with two triples, 7-12 FGs, 4-4 FTs, and only one turnover. I can’t imagine it getting much better for owners given Evans’ historical struggles with efficiency. If you can find an owner who knee-jerks on these kind of “first game back” lines, it wouldn’t be the craziest idea to flip ‘Reke for a more reliable asset after just this one game.

Zaza Pachulia – How is this guy still playing so well? He had a monster line going even without the overtime period factored in. 14/21/1/1/1 on an efficient 6-10 FGs in 38 minutes. Ride ’em ’til he bucks ya.

Deron Williams – Stellar performance from the man with the big cat tat.  11 of 17 from the floor, 6 of 7 from the stripe, a pair of treys and only one turnover in 45 efficiency-filled minutes. D-Will posted a final slash of 30/6/8/0/2 in a call back to his elite PG days. Sadly those are few and far between lately, but when he’s good, he’s real good and Tuesday was one of those nights.

Meyers Leonard – There were certainly better lines on the night, but Leonard’s is noteworthy in a good way since he found his stroke from long range (made four triples) and also may have reclaimed his starting job. When the game tipped off he wasn’t with the starting five, but when they came back to begin the third quarter he was. (RIP, Noah Vonleh. We hardly knew ye.)

 

THE BAD

Kevin Love – 8/8/0/1/0 on 2-10 from the field with no threes against a team starting Jared Dudley opposite him. Silver lining? Love didn’t turn the ball over in his 33 minutes, so that’s somethin’.

Timofey Mozgov – Probably should’ve milked that injury for another week or three. Nine minutes as a starter that saw the positive contributions (two rebounds…seriously, that’s it) heavily outweighed by the negative (0-3 FGs, four turnovers, no points/dimes/steals/blocks). If the Cavs had even league-average backup big man depth, Mozzy would be playing himself right out of the rotation.

The Los Angeles Lakers – You lose to an 0-18 team, you’re going in “The Bad” section. Kobe Bryant‘s last game in Philly went about as well as all his other games this year, seeing him drop 20 points but needing 26 shots to do it. He pulled the trigger 17 times (!!!) from long distance, connecting on only four. His weighted average from the field is as much a killer as DeAndre Jordan‘s is from the free throw line. Unfortunately for owners of the Bean, he’s not going to be pulling down 24 rebounds anytime soon to help soften that blow. Elsewhere for the Lakeshow, Jordan Clarkson had a decent outing with 19/5/2/0/0 (9-19 FGs, one triple), and Julius Randle got his double-double on with 12 & 11 but not much else. Overall it was a night to forget, within a season to forget, for the Lakers.

Markieff Morris – There are some guys that deserve to struggle because they are quite obviously jerks who aren’t particularly interested in team success. ‘Kieff is one of those dudes. So when he posts 6/1/3/0/0 on 3-11 from the field and three turnovers, I’m tossing his butt into “The Bad” category with a smile on my face. (It also helps that there wasn’t a snowball’s chance in hell I was going to own any shares of him this year, so he’s someone else’s problem. That’s selfish, I know. So sue me. Actually, better yet, sue Markieff – he’s the one doing illegal stuff and killing your fantasy team.)

Thaddeus Young – 8/4/2/0/0 on 3-14 FGs and 2-4 freebies. Woof.

Karl-Anthony Towns – Another night of low minutes for KAT as he only saw 22 against the Magic. There was no blowout factor and he wasn’t in foul trouble. He just simply wasn’t effective, going 2-11 from the field for only six points. He blocked a couple shots and stole the ball once to salvage an otherwise lousy night. But with Gorgui Dieng (11/7/1/1/3, 29 minutes) improving with each passing game and Nikola Pekovic finally starting to participate in basketball activities, the rook is going to need to step it up a couple notches to command more minutes in the 2016 portion of the season.

Ish Smith – Not only was Tyreke Evans back for the Pelicans, but also Norris Cole. And with that, it appears the Ish Smith Experience is over. Or is it? Alvin Gentry played Cole 23 minutes to Smith’s 14 and the former went 3-12 from the field, 3-6 from the FT line and picked up four personal fouls. Ish never got in rhythm because he played in a few short spurts, but if Cole continues to struggle with efficiency, perhaps the coaching staff will remember all the way back to a few days ago when Ish Smith was able to carve up defenses at will and create all sorts of easy opportunities for teammates. As a Smith owner myself, there’s an admitted bias, but I just don’t see how Cole is deserving of the backup PG spot since he has never had a stretch of games in his career where he’s been as good a distributor of the basketball as Smith has been over the last few weeks. I’ll be watching closely to see how this rotation sorts itself out.

Mason Plumlee – Saw only 21 minutes of action and ceded court time to Ed Davis (31 minutes) who wasn’t quite as badly outplayed by a man named Zaza. Plumdog scored only three points on 1 of 4 shooting and didn’t block a shot while Davis double-doubled with 10 & 11.

C.J. McCollum – Couldn’t find the range for the second straight game, making only four of the 21 shots he hoisted. He’s now a combined 8 for his last 36 and the pre-season concerns about efficiency are proving out. CJM did connect on three treys while handing out five assists, but that shooting percentage is a tough pill to swallow.

Al-Farouq Aminu – Despite it being a closely contested game with the Mavericks that ultimately went to overtime, Aminu played only 18 minutes and went scoreless. He had a swipe and a swat, but was otherwise terrible. Are we witnessing the phasing out of AFA?

 

THE NOTEWORTHY

LeBron James – 24/14/4/1/1 is usually plenty good enough to get you into “The Good” category, but 8-20 from the floor, no triples (on three attempts) and nine (yes, you read that right – nine) turnovers take all the shine off what casual observers might call a sterling game. Credit where it’s due though – LBJ made good on all eight attempts from the charity stripe in a very welcome sign for his owners.

J.R. Smith – Continues to save awful shooting lines (3-14 FGs on Tuesday) with the money counting stats – three 3s, two steals and a block. He’s not a boring guy to own, that’s for sure.

Bradley Beal – Couldn’t get his long range shot to fall, going 1-10 from deep on Tuesday night. But he was able to post 18/9/6/1/0 while only coughing the ball up once in 42 minutes. Efficiency wasn’t there (took him 19 shots to get those 18 points) for Beal, but it was just an off shooting night as most of his looks were wide open, so it wasn’t a shot selection issue.

Nik Stauskas – Now that the ‘6ers are getting healthier, Sauce Castillo is fading from the rotation. Only 15 minutes of floor time on Tuesday, and Tony Wroten is due to return in about another week or so to steal even more backcourt minutes. I dropped Stauskas in my main league and I can’t think of many formats where he warrants a stash right now.

Shane Larkin – Nice little game from the Nets backup PG on Tuesday. He played 30 minutes off the bench (same as Jarrett Jack did in a starter’s role) and went 11/5/8/2/1 with a triple and no turnovers. Keep an eye on him as he could be useful later in the season if Brooklyn’s roster experiences a shakeup.

The Orlando Magic Rotation – Andrew flippin’ Nicholson played 31 minutes off the bench. Flip those numbers and you’ve got the amount of Aaron Gordon‘s run on Tuesday. I don’t even care that Nicholson is Canadian – that ain’t right, man. To make matters even worse, Channing Frye continues to start and see minutes in the teens while doing absolutely nothing to earn them. Scott Skiles is evil and he hates your fantasy team.

Andrew Wiggins – The 27 points are nice, as are the 11 FT attempts. Wiggy continues to be more aggressive with each passing game, but he still needs to get the peripheral stats up. He only had two assists and he didn’t steal the ball. He was able to connect on a three-pointer and block one shot, but in 36 minutes, he’s going to need to do more to start climbing up the ranks.

Mike Conley – Only played 24 minutes in a closely contested game with no back-to-back considerations. Not sure what’s up with the reduced run, but when the Griz hang a buck-13 on someone and Conley gets in on only 11 points and 3 assists of that, box score watchers have to be thinking “he must be hurt.” By all accounts, Conley is just fine and he simply split the PG minutes down the middle with Mario Chalmers who was a +22 during his time on the floor to Mike’s -13.

Anthony Davis – Brow was a bit of a mixed bag on Tuesday. He nearly triple-doubled with 17 & 14 plus NINE blocked shots, but his efficiency was lousy. Davis made good on only 4 of 15 from the field and 8 of 13 from the FT line. Other positives in the loss to the Grizzlies were his two steals, one three pointer (his only attempt) and a single, solitary turnover in 41 minutes. If he cleans up the shooting, this is a stellar outing, but those percentages count and he just didn’t get it done for owners in those cats. Still a heckuva night for a player who only needs to stay healthy to quickly climb back into the top handful of fantasy assets.

Raymond Felton – Played 40 minutes. Before Tuesday night, had anybody ever said the sentence “we can’t get J.J. Barea back fast enough” and meant it?

 

OPPORTUNITY IS EVERYTHING

Players who saw over 36 minutes of floor time on Tuesday:

Otto Porter Jr. (42), Bradley Beal (42), John Wall (41), LeBron James (37), J.R. Smith (36), Jordan Clarkson (38), D’Angelo Russell (37), Eric Bledsoe (38), Brandon Knight (38), Thaddeus Young (36), Brook Lopez (37), Nikola Vucevic (37), Andrew Wiggins (36), Marc Gasol (42), Anthony Davis (41), Dirk Nowitzki (37), Zaza Pachulia (38), Raymond Felton (40 – seriously, WTF?), Deron Williams (45), Wesley Matthews (40 – seems smart for a guy coming off Achilles surgery), Damian Lillard (41), C.J. McCollum (40).

 

That’s it for this Tuesday’s wrap-up. As always, if you want to chat waiver pickups, DFS plays, or anything else fantasy hoops, drop me a line on Twitter @moneyballmatty. Cheers.

  1. Eric says:
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    ROS, rank order: A Burks, O Porter, T Warren

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @Eric: Hey Eric. I’d rank them ROS just as they are currently sitting in per-game value: Porter (by a decent margin), then Warren (just outside top-100 in only 22 MPG), then Burks (outside top-130 in over 28 MPG).

      Porter has a solid role and is getting heavy minutes so I don’t see him falling outside the top-80. I think 80th is about Warren’s ceiling if he can add a couple of minutes to his average floor time. I just don’t think Burks has the game/role to threaten the top-100 unless Hood and/or Hayward miss major time and Alec is thrown into a much higher usage rate.

  2. jonny says:
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    Hey Matty,

    Was just about to finally accept an offer of teague and fournier for my marc and RHJ today. Should i shop around and see if i can sell higher? What do you think about these offers:

    1) Marc and jeff green for millsap and cj miles
    2)Marc and wiggins for horford and IT2/3
    3) Marc and wiggins for hayward and love

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @jonny: I think you can do better than the Teague/Fournier combo. Gasol has jumped up to 4th round value (after last night’s gem) and Teague is sitting in the mid-60s. Fournier is starting to fade as well, so you need to get more back IMO.

      Re/ the others:

      1) Gimme Sapper & CJM
      2) Definitely Horford/Pizza Guy (both are top-35 9-cat players so far)
      3) Close one, but probably Hayward/Love side by a hair

      The second one is my favorite and if you can get it, I’d consider that a steal.

      • jonny says:
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        @Matty:

        Thanks for the input! Couldn’t pull off number 2, trying to push for millsap and CJM. Would you do marc and RHJ for teague plus any of barton/mccollum/morris/ariza? I need the guard help and should be okay for big man stats.

        • Matty

          Matty says:
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          @jonny: No problem. Happy to toss in my two cents.

          Yeah, I think Sapper & CJM would be a really good haul. Not sure Teague & CJM is quite enough, but it’s close. McCollum is falling a bit now that his shot has predictably gone cold on him. He’s right on the fringe of the top-60 now and I think he is more likely to fall a few more spots than he is to regain a top-50 spot. With Teague likely to settle a bit higher than he is now, I think he’s slightly less valuable than Gasol. RHJ is going to be really hit or miss, but he has some upside for his defensive stats and the likelihood that BKN will embrace the youth movement a bit more as the season goes along. I mean, they’re second last in the East playing their vets heavy minutes – where’s the incentive in continuing to do so?

          All said, I think Teague/CJM for Gasol/RHJ is really close and it would come down to just how badly you need the guard help. Can’t fault you for taking that deal though.

  3. lb. sand says:
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    Len or Dieng?
    9 cat H2H
    Thx

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @lb. sand: Dieng. Little bit more of a track record and he’s trending in the right direction even with more competition for minutes than what Len is facing. Capela won’t hold this starting spot for very long and it could be a mess all year in Houston with Terrence Jones there and DMo due back in short order.

  4. munchkin says:
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    If you had Harden, would you trade him for dray & lillard?

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @munchkin: I’m not a Beard fan at all, but I think that’s more to do with real life contributions (i.e. embarrassing lack of effort on the defensive end) than his value as a fantasy asset.

      Anytime you can parlay one stud into two, I think you have to really consider it. Lillard has been fading a bit, but I think by season’s end he’ll be a first round value. Draymond is going to flirt with top-15 numbers as well and they are both pretty durable dudes.

      It’s tough to give up a potential top-5 asset, but if you can get two guys who are a strong bet to land in the top-20, that’s tough to pass on. I’d go for it.

  5. That’s what I like to hear – a SELL alert! I’m the M Gasol owner in our league, so I put in these:

    Receive Paul Millsap, Atl PF
    Receive Eric Bledsoe, Pho PG
    Send Chris Paul, LAC PG
    Send Marc Gasol, Mem C

    Receive Jeff Teague, Atl PG
    Receive LeBron James, Cle SF
    Send Chris Paul, LAC PG
    Send Marc Gasol, Mem C

    Receive Al Horford, Atl C
    Receive Kyle Lowry, Tor PG
    Send Chris Paul, LAC PG
    Send Marc Gasol, Mem C

    Receive Hassan Whiteside, Mia PF
    Receive Robert Covington, Phi PF
    Send Marc Gasol, Mem C
    Send J.R. Smith, Cle SG

    Receive Draymond Green, GS SF
    Send Marc Gasol, Mem C

    Receive Blake Griffin, LAC PF
    Send Marc Gasol, Mem C
    Send Kyrie Irving*, Cle PG

    Receive Kristaps Porzingis, NY PF
    Receive Chris Bosh, Mia C
    Send Marc Gasol, Mem C
    Send Kyrie Irving*, Cle PG

    The last two are my most aggressive but I’m just getting tired of waiting on Kyrie, with him likely getting a minutes limit and sitting back to backs when he does finally take the court. We’ll see if anyone bites.

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @WNWDOTCOM: Hey man. Definitely some aggressive offers there, but they’re always good to toss out there to get peoples’ temperature after big performances. I’d be hoping to get Horford & Lowry back – love those two guys.

      I’m with you in not really knowing what to expect from Kyrie. He has accumulated quite the medical chart in a pretty short career, so no doubt the Cavs will continue to treat him with kid gloves even when he does return. They have serviceable depth at PG with Mo & Delly and they’ve proven they can win in the regular season without him, so where’s the incentive to play him heavy minutes anytime soon? Not a bad idea to capitalize on the excitement/anticipation of his return if you can get good value in return for him.

      Good luck! Let us know what deal you’re able to swing.

      • @Matty: Appreciate the encouragement Matty! All of my offers were rejected, with the exception of Draymond Green for Gasol, who has yet to respond. We’ll see if he bites but our league has been very conservative so far this year. Thankfully, the rest of my roster is pretty good. I’ve lost the past 3 weeks so I made some pretty dramatic moves before the week. But I’m currently sitting on:

        PG Chris Paul
        SG James Harden
        SF Andrew Wiggins
        PF Nikola Jokic (really just a streaming spot)
        C Rudy Gobert
        G Ricky Rubio
        F Chandler Parsons
        Util Marcin Gortat
        Util Marc Gasol
        Util Avery Bradley
        Bench J.R. Smith
        Bench Kyrie Irving
        Bench Cody Zeller (streaming this one too)

        Obviously, my goal has been to get a top PF for Marc Gasol but no bites yet. This is a 12-team H2H 8 category league (no turnovers).

        • Matty

          Matty says:
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          @WNWDOTCOM: Yeah, it’s tough to get a deal done before 20 games have been played in the season. Everyone is still holding out hope that their draft day hunches are going to turn things around if they’re underperforming or they’re asking for the moon if a guy has come out of the gates on fire. Give it another couple weeks and people should start to loosen their grips on players.

          That would have been a nice team a few hours ago. Unfortunately the news on Gobert is a huge downer, and now CP3 is due to miss at least a couple games with a rib issue. Rubio obviously is struggling with health and who knows how much Kyrie you’ll get once his return is greenlit. It’s a studly roster when healthy, but you’ve caught some bad breaks so far.

  6. Clyde Prompto says:
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    I own Marc Gasol and I’m not overly concerned with him being injured. His game isn’t really predicated on explosion or athleticism, so the wear and tear shouldn’t be THAT bad. I’d certainly move him in the right deal, but if one never materializes I’m not gonna sweat it. Then again, I’m a sucker for out of position assists and bigs who can hit FTs, so my opinion may be skewed.

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @Clyde Prompto: Very true about his style of play. Still, I don’t think the coaching staff is willing to risk Gasol’s health by continuing to play him mega minutes. His volume will fall a bit as his minutes do, but the net result might be a healthier and more productive late-season stretch. It’s all speculation and Memphis needs MG to be great to compete in the West, so maybe they do run him into the ground if they think their championship window is closing? Tough to predict when the coach says he desperately wants to reduce minutes and only a couple hours later has the guy play 42 of a possible 48.

      • Clyde Prompto says:
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        @Matty: Oh yeah, I’d rather if he plays more games at 34 minutes per than if he were to keep running out there for 40+ and be on fumes by March. I think Wright and Z-Bo being out is keeping his minutes inflated as well.

  7. miles proudfoot says:
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    Great article, thanks! What do you think of an offer of my Dragic and Dieng for his Noel? I’m not sure if I’m low balling, as all three have had strange seasons up to this point. Thanks!

    • miles proudfoot says:
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      @miles proudfoot: also been dropping Collison everywhere for dieng , but also really need big man stats and over drafted pg’s. Can you get down with this or think I will regret it? Don’t think I can wait for a Collison break out with rondo killing it at the moment.

      • Matty

        Matty says:
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        @miles proudfoot: Tough call as Colly & Gorgui are in similar spots. Both have starters ahead of them who have flashed really good play early in the season. KAT, as has been well documented, has never played major minutes over a long stretch in his career. Perhaps he’s ALREADY hitting a bit of a rookie wall? If so, Dieng will continue to split minutes pretty evenly with the rook. Until Pek returns, of course and then who knows how Sam will divvy up minutes.

        I still think things will go south in Sacto and don’t buy all this “power meeting” crap with DMC, Rondo and Coach Karl. At this point we know who DeMarcus & Rajon are and when things go south, they get increasingly volatile and find a way to make matters worse.

        Collison would be my preference overall, but if you are deficient in big man stats, it’s not at all crazy to dump him for someone like Dieng.

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @miles proudfoot: Thanks, miles – appreciate it!

      I wouldn’t do that. Each of Dragic, Dieng and Nerlens have major issues this year. I don’t know why the Dragon has been so lousy, but he’s barely clinging to top-200 value on a 9-cat per-game basis this year. And with a 16 game sample size, it’s starting to feel pretty legit. I don’t know how high he can climb if Wade doesn’t miss a significant portion of the season. Maybe he can scratch and claw his way to the 100 range, but he’s going to really have to pick it up just to do that.

      Dieng has major road blocks to improving his current rank of 89th. He’s looked better lately while KAT has struggled, but if Pekovic comes back, that’s one more guy to consider for minutes at the C spot. If Mitchell continues to be an idiot and refuses to play either KAT or Dieng at PF, you’re looking at 48 minutes going to three guys who can all play (when healthy). The upside is capped.

      I’m not a Nerlens fan at all. He has lost some confidence in his game and there are other options for Brett Brown at PF & C with Grant playing really well, Covington able to shift to the 4 in really small lineups, and obviously Okafor in the middle. I don’t have any confidence that Noel will crack the top-100 players this year because of the increased competition for frontcourt minutes and his propensity for getting minor ailments and missing a game or three.

      I would rather hold Dragic & Dieng and hope Dragon can slowly improve his stock, capitalizing on any DNP-rest days for Wade.

      • miles proudfoot says:
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        @Matty: wow, thank you for the crazy indepth analysis and great advice!

        • Matty

          Matty says:
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          @miles proudfoot: You got it, brother. Happy to chat hoops and help out any way I can.

  8. .. says:
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    Rank these guys: Burks, dieng, jerami, stanjo (10-team)

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @..: Jerami, Dieng, StanJo, Burks.

      Grant looks goooood the last few games. If he continues to see 30-32 MPG, he’s got a shot at having himself a really productive season. Those D stats are tasty.

      • .. says:
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        @Matty:
        Would you drop Bayless for any of them?

        • Matty

          Matty says:
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          @..: Yes. I would rather have Grant than Bayless. And maybe Dieng or StanJo too as I feel both of their upsides are higher. I trust JKidd’s rotations as much as Skiles’ and I have no doubt that Bayless’ time as a starter will be short-lived.

  9. v00dr00 says:
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    2 questions.

    1: Grant is on the wire in a first-come first-serve league. Bazemore or Grant? Does Grant maintain his minutes while Noel looks to regain his starting position?

    2: Thoughts on trading IT2/3 for Evans? I’m thinking of offering that or do you think I should try something else with this squad below:

    PG Isaiah Thomas, Bos PG
    SG Andre Iguodala, GS SF, SG
    SF Nicolas Batum, Cha SF, SG
    PF Paul George, Ind SF, SG, PF
    C Tim Duncan, SA PF, C
    G Tony Parker, SA PG
    F Trevor Ariza, Hou SF, SG
    PF/C Joffrey Lauvergne, Den PF, C
    UTIL Anthony Davis, Nor PF, C
    UTIL Eric Bledsoe, Pho PG, SG
    UTIL Andrew Bogut, GS C
    Bench DeMarcus Cousins, Sac C, PF
    Bench Dwyane Wade, Mia SG
    Bench Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Bkn SF
    Bench Jae Crowder, Bos SF
    IR Jusuf Nurkic*, Den C O

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @v00dr00: 1) Grant. All day.

      2) Hold IT2. Evans had an awesome debut, but Thomas is the better fantasy player rest of season. Probably by at least a round of value and likely more.

      That’s a really nice squad overall with two great PGs (IT2, Bledsoe), two great bigs (AD, DMC) and one elite wing (PG13), plus a guy who is playing well above his ranking (Batum) so far. You could potentially try to move Batum if you think he can’t sustain this multi-cat goodness, but he fits your team build nicely, providing depth and dimes at the SG position (nice insurance since Wade isn’t the most durable player of all time).

      • v00dr00 says:
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        @Matty: Thanks for confirming my suspicions haha. Holding IT2 and nabbed Grant in my other league!

    • v00dr00 says:
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      @v00dr00: 12 team H2H 17 CATS(bunch of %’s, TO’s, DD’s, PPM, A/TO)

  10. Pong says:
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    Regarding marc, i traded him and giannis for paul george and dwight powell during marc’s slump a couple weeks back. 10 teamer and counting fgs and ftms.

    I’m shifting over to punting FG% so this move made sense to me at the time, and with the way pg13 is playing, i’m liking it so far.

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @Pong: I’m ok with that trade. PG13 is ELITE and looks unstoppable in this faster tempo Pacers system. Even if PG starts missing some of those mid-range shots he’s been pretty hot on, you’re punting FG% so it doesn’t hurt as much. He’ll still “get his” through sheer volume and I like him to stay in that top-8 to 12 range on the year.

  11. The Gintern says:
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    I’m agreeing with Clyde above – Gasol’s game helps him stay away from injury. Still bitter that I lost out on him in a bidding war in the draft…

    Anyways, I’m needing assists and hoping to trade Redick and someone else for Conley. Who do you think would be a good pairing? Conley’s owner needs %s and is interested in Redick, but feel free to suggest two other players as well.

    Here’s my squad:
    CJM, LaVine, Colly, Lin
    Korver, Redick, Manu
    DeMarre, Lord Covington
    Favors, Duncan, Dwight Powell
    Gortat, Vala, Tyson Chandler (ugh, tyson chandler)

    Thanks dude!

    • The Gintern says:
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      @The Gintern: 16 team 9 cat roto btw

    • Matty

      Matty says:
      (link)

      @The Gintern: I’d look to do Tim Duncan & Redick for Conley. Timmy is actually posting better per-game value than MC so far this year, but once the DNPs start stacking up, his total value will fall behind. He’s shooting 55% from the field so that might be attractive to the other owner. Give that a try if Conley is your target.

      • The Gintern says:
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        @Matty: Thanks for all the advice, appreciate it. What if I can swing Gortat and Redick? Better, right?

        I probably should have mentioned this, but we’re doing a weird transition to H2H playoffs for the last three weeks, so our roto season ends a bit early – which probably negates the late season DNPs therefore making Timmy more valuable.

        Any other sources of assists besides Conley if this deal doesn’t go through you’d suggest targeting? I’m thinking of trying to move DeMarre cause I’m not loving his efficiency, and I can afford to lose his 3s and steals… any good buy lows out there?

        • Matty

          Matty says:
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          @The Gintern: Yeah, I think that format changes things slightly. I like the way Gortat has been playing lately. He’s not posting huge, flashy lines, but he’s incrementally improving night after night to where I thought he’d be value-wise pre-season. I think he’ll finish the year around the top-50 which means you’d be selling pretty low right now. But that’s totally your prerogative and you should make the deal you think best suits your team ROS.

          Assists are really hard to come by, but I think there’ll be more for both D’Angelo Russell and Jordan Clarkson once Kobe shuts it down. Maybe see what the Clarkson owner wants as I believe he’ll be a second half stud.

          • the gintern says:
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            @Matty: Good thoughts, thanks!

  12. Harv says:
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    14 team H2H daily format 9cat

    Wall
    Ariza
    RJax
    Gobert
    Drummond
    Sefolosha
    A. Gordon
    Howard
    Kanter
    Mayo
    J. Johnson
    Burks
    Mo Williams

    I’m currently at last place. I think my team is underperforming. Is it just that or should I shake things up?

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @Harv: I think you have four core guys who are underperforming – Wall (currently 54th in 9-cat per-game), Ariza (87th), RJax (78th) and Gobert (52nd). None of those guys are ranked where you would’ve drafted them (most likely) but all are in stable situations with consistent minutes. I have faith that Wall & Gobert will both finish the season as top-25 options so there’s a good amount of room for improvement there. Houston is a bit of a mess as a team, but I still think Ariza finds himself inside the top-75 when all is said and done. RJax, I’m not so sure on. He can have those wow games, but when the dust settles, his game isn’t as metric-friendly as you’d think.

      Unfortunately your two hot “sleepers” (Gordon & Burks) haven’t capitalized on potential and you really need them to.

      I think your only option to make a big splash really is to wait for Drummond’s next 20/20 game and flip him to an owner who loves the popcorn and is punting FTs, so is willing to give you back a top-30 asset.

  13. Fahed Misho says:
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    My Team:
    PG: John Wall, Elfird Payton
    SG: Nicolas Batum, Jarret Jack, JJ Reddick
    SF: Tyreke Evans, CJ Miles
    PF: Anthony Davis, Marvin Williams
    C: Deandre Jordan, Rudy Gobert
    IR: Jonas Calanciunas

    Notable Waiver Wire: Danny Green, Otto Porter, Clint Capela, Jerami Grant

    This is a 10 team, 9 cat h2H weekly lock league. Would you drop any of my current players for any of the mentioned free agents?

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @Fahed Misho: The metrics say you should dump Elfrid as he’s ranked well outside the top-150 currently. Porter is 64th, Capela is 84th (though I doubt he sustains it), Grant is 100th and has upside beyond that, and Danny Green has proven to be a top-25 9-cat asset in seasons past despite being ranked right around where Payton is currently (the 170s).

      Can you dump someone with the minutes and name value of Elfrid Payton to grab Porter? Most can’t do it, but the numbers say you should. Your assists should still be safe if you make that move with Wall, Batum and a healthy Tyreke.

  14. Spring Blake says:
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    Thanks for the writeup!

    Quick Trade Q:

    Would you move Ariza for Joe Johnson / Robin Lobez?

    16 team roto:

    PG: Bledsoe
    SG: Harden
    SF: Batum
    PF: T. Jones
    C: Pachulia
    G: Ellis
    F: Jokic
    SG/SF: Ariza
    PF/C:Mahinmi
    Util: Vasquez

    BN:
    Hollis-Jeffries
    Humphries
    D. West
    Bogut
    Wroten

    • Matty

      Matty says:
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      @Spring Blake: You’re welcome! I love writing/chatting about hoops. Very rarely does a night go by when there isn’t something that really changes the dynamic of a team for fantasy purposes.

      No, I wouldn’t send Ariza away for those two. Joe Johnson isn’t even in the top-200 right now and RoLo is just inside the top-180. Neither guy has much upside and Ariza is a legit top-75 asset if he can even show slight improvement (which I am confident he will). You should aim higher if you’re looking to part with Ariza.

  15. Rocky says:
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    Hey Matty!

    Great stuff today. I’ve gone from tenaciously trying to trade for (unsuccessfully, I might add) Marc Gasol to being squarely in the sell camp. Its lose-lose as far as I’m concerned. If he continues to play anywhere near these kinds of minutes, he will break down and soon. And if they cut back on the minutes, as they claim they will, will his production suffer as a result? That said, because the C position is such a wasteland, I still have him top 5/6 there, with most of the ROS potential trending down…

    I do have an issue with my roster that I’d love some input on. With Myers Leonard now healthy, I’ve got to cut someone. Been trying to execute some 2-1 trades but nothing quite yet (league is not super active trade-wise). If I can’t get a trade going, who do I jettison?

    My 9 cat/12 team league roster:
    Teague
    IT2
    Jimmy Butler
    PG13
    Greek Freak
    D. Carroll
    Favors
    JR Smith
    Gorgui
    Myers Leonard
    Rodney Hood
    Zach LaVine
    Clint Capela
    Otto Porter

    • Rocky says:
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      @Rocky:
      With Gobert down indefinitely, thinking about trying to make a play for him as a stash come playoff time. Would you take DeMarre Carroll at this point for Gobert, with his return TBD. Not enough? Too risky?

      • Eric says:
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        @Rocky:
        Haha to piggyback off of his question, I’m also thinking of doing the same thing. Thinking of trading Gortat. What’s the prognosis for an MCL strain? Do they come back pretty well?

      • Matty

        Matty says:
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        @Rocky: Really, really tough to make a recommendation on this right now. Grade II MCL sprains can take anywhere from three weeks to three MONTHS to heal. We just don’t know enough yet on Rudy’s prognosis and the “indefinite” tag makes him an avoid. The only way I’d be targeting him is if I had an IR spot (or deep bench) where I could comfortably stash him while also picking up Trevor Booker as a stop-gap.

        Sorry guys – wish I could give you something more definitive, but I don’t want to suggest something and have it really bite you in the ass.

    • Matty

      Matty says:
      (link)

      @Rocky: I think of all the guys on your roster I’d look to drop LaVine or Capela. Both guys are going to have their starting jobs jerked around based on the health of other players on the roster. I don’t think you can count on either guy for consistent production. Flip side of that coin is that both of those guys have the upside/potential to make you kick yourself if someone like Rubio or Dwight misses extended time (again). The other guy to consider (in a couple weeks) will be JR Smith. Once Shumpert is back, JR’s poor shot selection and lack of efficiency won’t be so tolerable for the Cleveland coaching staff. He’s getting away with it now because there just aren’t many backcourt options in The Land. But once Kyrie & Shump are back, JR is going to be on a short leash.

  16. jason's kidd says:
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    Got an owner biting on marc and jeff green for CP3 believe it or not. This has gotta be worth it right even with all the injury and resting risk with CP this year?

    • jason's kidd says:
      (link)

      @jason’s kidd:

      Hey Matty did you maybe miss my question? lol

      • Matty

        Matty says:
        (link)

        @jason’s kidd: Hey – sorry, I think you might’ve gotten caught up in the spam filter.

        On its face, Gasol/Green for CP3 is probably something you have to do, but it all depends on your confidence level that Paul can stay healthy. He’s been battling little dings all season so far and he’s outside the top-20 in 9-cat even when he does play (i.e. on a per-game basis). I don’t know much about rib injuries or how long they can dog someone, but if it’s something that impacts his mid-range jumper or his willingness to penetrate (and get banged around closer to the basket) he’ll be a far different player than we’re used to.

        Basically what I’m saying is that it’s tough to give up a healthy stud player (Gasol) for an injured one (Paul). But history of these players’ performance upside says you should do it, so it’s really a matter of how much risk you’re willing to take on.

  17. hamtime says:
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    Hi Matty,

    1. Owner is looking to deal his AD to me but is asking for a steep price. So far, he wants my ibaka favors porzi for his AD otto bayless. Too little, right? Trying to get AD hayward or AD it2. thoughts?

    2. which side do you like – drum kemba gorgui or gobert batum agor (trying to get it2 instead of agor)

    3. porzi dragic or monroe tyreke

    4. ibaka dragic or teague derozan

    5. favors ibaka dragic or knight wiggins markieff

    Thanks!

    • Matty

      Matty says:
      (link)

      @hamtime: 1) Just changed a bit with the injury to Gobert as D-Fave might have to bump to the C spot and that will affect his numbers (which way is TBD depending on how Snyder uses him).

      2) Obviously has changed as well since Gobert is now out for a while.

      3) Gimme Monroe/’Reke side all day.

      4) Close, but Teague/DeMar by a hair I think.

      5) Again, Favors’ value could go either way with his frontcourt running mate out of commission for a while. I’ll reserve judgement on any trades re/ him until we know more about his role going forward.

      • hamtime says:
        (link)

        @Matty: wow, I’m surprised you would prefer reke/monroe. Are you worried Porzi might slow down as the year progresses? He has been producing at 2nd round value over the last 5-6 games. Btw, this is for an 11 cat 16m league with off/def rebs and ast/t0. Just curious to hear your thoughts on this.

        Thanks!

        • Matty

          Matty says:
          (link)

          @hamtime: Yeah, I’m not overly confident in Zinger’s ability to keep up this pace. He’s been really impressive – far more than even his most staunch supporters could’ve predicted. I think he’ll settle around the 40-50 range by season’s end, but that’s just a guess and there’s a pretty decent chance he makes me look stupid. Zinger is pulling down 2.5 offensive boards per game (29th) to Monroe’s 3.0 (12th in NBA), so there’s a bit of a value gap there, but not as much as you might think.

          After last night I’m even more sure that I’d want the Monroe side as it looks like ‘Reke is good to go for heavy minutes, back-to-backs, and high usage right out of the gate. Gentry is going to run him into the ground.

  18. JJ says:
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    Just got offered Jeff Green and Kemba Walker for my Al Horford and Will Barton. I can afford to lose Horford because I’ve got alot of bigs and only one point guard. Would you take this trade in a 10 team/9-cat league?

    This is my team

    Dragic
    Miles
    Gallinari
    Marcus Morris
    Davis
    DeRozan
    Barton
    Horford
    Monroe
    Gortat
    Hayward
    Ibaka
    Okafor

    • Matty

      Matty says:
      (link)

      @JJ: No, I would rather have Horford and Barton. I have very little confidence that Kemba will continue to be as efficient as he has through the first month or so of the season. Even if you can afford to lose Big Al doesn’t mean you should. I love his 9-cat game and I’d be needing a top-20 pick in return to part ways with him. There’s nothing in his game to this point that seems unsustainable (I’ve been watching a lot of Hawks games). I know Kemba has been top-20 so far, but I think he’ll settle in around 4th round value by season’s end. That’s just my guess though, so if you think he’s going to stay this hot all year, the deal is probably pretty fair.

  19. Jerry says:
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    Hey, Matty! Crowder or Jermai Grant? Also, Collison or Crowder for season? Thanks!

    • Matty

      Matty says:
      (link)

      @Jerry: What’s shakin’, Jerry?!

      As much as I like both Jerami Grant and Darren Collison’s game, I think Crowder is your man in both spots. He’s getting pretty consistent run on the wing in Boston and he has the look of a legit top-75 guy with upside to around 50 (where he currently sits).

  20. Jerry says:
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    Forgot to add in Wesley Matthwes when comparing to Crowder and Grant. Thanks!

    • Matty

      Matty says:
      (link)

      @Jerry: Matthews is already getting the run (he’s at 30.2 MPG thru 17 games) and all he’s been able to do is post numbers that land him outside the top-150. I think he’ll get a bit better as the year wears on, but he’s going to struggle to crack 100. I think both Grant & Crowder have upside well beyond that, so I’d order the three: Crowder, Grant, Wes.

  21. hamtime says:
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    1. ty lawson is suddenly relevant again. would you drop gross mo will for him? or capela?

    2. with bayless getting a dnp today, do you think matt barnes will be better the rest of the way? kidd and skiles deserve each other

    3. drummond or horford?

    • Matty

      Matty says:
      (link)

      @hamtime: 1) No. Lawson has really only been playing the last couple games because Beverley has been in foul trouble (fouled out two games ago, 5 PFs last night). If he can avoid that trouble going forward, Lawson’s minutes and opportunity will be much lower. Also, Lawson has hit all four of his 3-point attempts over the last couple games, whereas prior to that he had made 9 of 36 (25%). Mo Will should continue to have more value for at least two to three more weeks and then you can revisit after that. And Capela, I’m not wanting any part of the Houston frontcourt rotation, especially once DMo is back.

      2) You ain’t kiddin’ that Kidd & Skiles are birds of a feather. Really tough to own/rely on players in rotations that are getting jerked around like that. That said, I think I’d still rather have Bayless as the DNP feels like a one-off thing.

      3) Horford in a balanced team build 9-cat/roto and it’s not really close. If you’re punting FTs then Drummond deserves consideration and the numbers say he is more valuable.

  22. Z says:
    (link)

    Hey Matty! Nice article you’ve written (Y)

    I am playing in a 15 team/8 man/11 cat (PPM, Team Wins) league, and currently sitting at 1-4 but improving after trading DMC for Marc Gasol and Draymond Green. What should i being doing to improve my roster of:

    – Mike Conley
    – Victor Oladipo
    – Draymond Green
    – Paul Millsap
    – Demarcus Cousins
    – Kristaps Porzingis
    – Trevor Ariza
    – Will Barton

    I feel that Trevor Ariza and Will Barton are my more expendable players, and with guys like Monta Ellis, Jae Crowder, MCW, Nerlens Noel, Bazemore, and Wes Matthews on the wire might be of better value to me in the long run

    What categories am i lacking in and should i make any waiver wire additions?

    • Matty

      Matty says:
      (link)

      @Z: Hey Z – thanks, man.

      That’s a really unique format – sounds cool, especially with the shallow roster and team win factor.

      I agree that if you’re going to part with anyone, it’s Ariza or Will the Thrill. I really like Jae Crowder and could see you swapping him out for either guy. The Celts are winning more often than the Rockets, so that helps, while he’s also putting up standalone (9-cat) value that should rival – and likely better – both of those guys. He’d be my target.

      Nerlens is a mess and you might be able to count his team’s wins on one hand this year. Ellis just isn’t being utilized like everyone thought he would be after moving to Indy. Baze is going to struggle with minutes now that Thabo is playing really well on the wing. And Wes needs a full year to get back to his old ways. You just don’t come back from Achilles surgery and regain form in the first year.

      Looks like you’re all set on points, boards, blocks, and steals. Assists should be ok given the out-of-position contributions from Draymond. Now that DMC is taking a lot of shots from farther away, your FG% might struggle and you’re likely a bit light on 3-pointers as well. Those two categories aren’t exactly a fix with one guy via the wire, so you’ll have to prioritize one. For starters, I’d add Crowder for your least favorite of Ariza/Barton (Trevor gives you more 3s, so I think I might keep him even though the rankings favor Barton).

  23. Hamtime says:
    (link)

    Huge trade in the works for my 16m 11 cat:
    1. I give my ibaka for Teague
    2. I give my Teague favors Covington for it2 Hayward Dirk

    This SHOULD complement Lillard better, but of course I won’t pull the trigger if you think i lose out. Pls help!

    3. Also picked up wroten. Bad move? Desperately need scoring and I hate mo will so much.

    • Hamtime says:
      (link)

      @Hamtime: sorry if the first part was confusing. I would be first giving my ibaka for Teague.

      Then i would trade Teague favors Covington for it2 Hayward Dirk. Unfortunately, the owner will only do the deal if Teague is involved. So I would end up pairing Hayward Dirk it2 with Lillard.

    • Matty

      Matty says:
      (link)

      @Hamtime: I think I’d prefer Teague/Favors/Covington than the other half. I love me some IT2, but the value on the Teague side is higher overall. It’s close, so if you prefer the other, go for it. Have to trust your own gut.

  24. OldMilwaukeePounders says:
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    Matty –

    Would you add Myers Leonard over Schroder in a 10 team roto league (no TOs)? My team is lacking in boards n’ blocks mostly. Biyombo has been giving me a decent boost, but I need more help.

    Thanks!

    • OldMilwaukeePounders says:
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      @OldMilwaukeePounders: Correction, this team is light on steals n’ triples. Got it confused with another squad of mine…thanks!

      • Matty

        Matty says:
        (link)

        @OldMilwaukeePounders: If you need steals and triples, I think you could make a case for either. Leonard should regain his starting spot pretty soon and I have to think he’ll be hitting more than the 1.0 3PM that Schroder currently is. Dennis’ game is so much more effective when he’s attacking the basket and Coach Bud has to be communicating that to him. Schroder is under 30% from deep on the year so I think the attempts will fall off. Whereas Meyers should have the green light from deep and around 30MPG. As far as steals go, Schroder has 20 in 21 games and Meyers has 3 in 12, so it’s not hard to see who is going to help you more in that category.

        Really it’s a degree to which you need help. If you’re really deficient in 3s, Meyers is your guy. If it’s steals where you need to pick it up, hold Schroder and hope he starts shooting the long ball at a much higher rate.

  25. .. says:
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    Trading Isaiah Thomas and porzingis for klay and oladipo…what do you think given the nice play recently from it2/3 and porzingis along with the struggles from klay and oladipo? Thanks!

Comments are closed.