What’s up fellow Razzball readers and fantasy basketball enthusiasts! After recharging our batteries over the summer, it’s time to start preparing for the upcoming NBA season. These can range from checking the names of the players from this year’s draft and/or casually checking all the offseason transactions, which can escalate to frantically searching for recorded games of Limoges to scouting the strengths and weaknesses of Sekou Doumbouya’s fantasy game. It’s all about how each and everyone enjoys the fantasy basketball game.

Now, I have to admit I can relate more to the latter example and, as such, I am preparing my top 155 projections for roto leagues, which will be published in the upcoming weeks and mark my third straight year on this fine site.

Last year, I decided to grade my projections from the year before, in an attempt to judge myself and try and make them more accurate in the future. Go me, for hating myself I guess, but it’s a fun little project before I dive into the actual projections every summer. If you are curious and ready for some math, check last year’s article for a full explanation on the method used. If you prefer the “too long, didn’t read” approach, know that the main metric is the difference between the projected and the actual overall per game value for each player.

Missed Players

Just like last year, it is important to take a look at players that I over/underestimated in my projections to learn and reflect. The following players had a difference in values that was greater than the standard deviation and were thus considered as “misses” for the purpose of this. (Again if this all sounds gibberish because I suck at explaining, check this) The first line for each player is my projection from last year, while the second is their actual stats for the 2018-19 season.

Name Value p/g 3/g r/g a/g s/g b/g fg% fga/g ft% fta/g to/g
Kevin Durant 0.84 26.04 2.4 7.2 5.2 0.9 1.5 52.0 17.6 89.0 6.0 2.8
0.54 25.99 1.8 6.3 5.9 0.8 1.1 52.1 17.7 88.5 6.5 2.9
Diff -0.29 -0.06 -0.6 -0.9 0.7 -0.1 -0.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.1
SD% 16.23 -99.0 -34.6 -69.0 -70.1 -64.2 -20.5 -97.9 -96.9 -94.9 -74.9 -91.5
Victor Oladipo 0.54 22.99 2.2 5.0 4.7 2.2 0.8 47.5 17.5 80.0 5.2 2.7
0.03 18.75 2.1 5.6 5.2 1.7 0.3 42.3 16.3 73.0 3.9 2.3
Diff -0.52 -4.24 -0.1 0.6 0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.1 -1.2 -0.1 -1.3 -0.4
SD% 103.2 -25.3 -85.3 -77.8 -78.8 32.8 -7.0 -17.3 -72.3 -23.2 -33.9 -49.8
LeBron James 0.53 24.86 2.0 7.9 8.3 1.3 0.7 54.0 17.1 72.0 6.1 3.6
0.26 27.36 2.0 8.4 8.3 1.3 0.6 51.0 19.9 66.5 7.6 3.6
Diff -0.27 2.50 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 2.8 -0.1 1.5 0.0
SD% 4.66 -55.8 -98.2 -81.2 -97.9 -97.7 -81.2 -51.2 -33.3 -39.3 -22.8 -97.8
Paul George 0.37 23.46 3.0 5.5 3.6 1.9 0.4 43.5 18.3 84.0 5.4 2.8
0.72 28.04 3.8 8.1 4.1 2.2 0.4 43.8 21.0 84.0% 7.0 2.7
Diff 0.34 4.58 0.8 2.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.7 0.0 1.6 -0.1
SD% 35.38 -19.2 -19.6 -4.2 -76.0 -20.1 -92.2 -95.1 -36.8 -99.5 -17.6 -83.6
Joel Embiid 0.25 23.30 1.2 11.2 2.9 0.7 1.9 47.0 17.2 77.0% 7.7 3.5
0.52 27.52 1.2 13.6 3.7 0.7 1.9 48.4 18.7 80.4 10.1 3.5
Diff 0.27 4.22 0.0 2.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 2.4 0.0
SD% 5.60 -25.6 -96.5 -13.2 -65.7 -95.3 -98.8 -78.0 -63.6 -62.1 25.7 -94.4
Kevin Love 0.24 21.11 2.7 10.4 2.4 0.8 0.4 42.0 15.5 87.0 6.2 2.4
-0.02 17.00 2.4 10.9 2.2 0.3 0.3 38.5 12.9 90.4 5.2 1.9
Diff -0.26 -4.11 -0.3 0.5 -0.2 -0.5 -0.1 0.0 -2.6 0.0 -1.0 -0.5
SD% 4.47 -27.4 -70.5 -83.2 -90.1 31.3 -76.1 -44.1 -37.4 -63.0 -47.6 -41.6
Gary Harris 0.23 18.39 2.2 3.3 3.0 1.7 0.2 49.5 14.3 81.5 2.5 1.7
-0.34 12.90 1.4 2.8 2.2 1.0 0.3 42.5 11.2 79.9 2.5 1.2
Diff -0.57 -5.49 -0.8 -0.5 -0.8 -0.7 0.1 -0.1 -3.1 0.0 0.0 -0.5
SD% 123.3 -3.1 -18.8 -81.9 -63.7 74.3 -81.2 12.3 -26.4 -82.3 -100 -40.5
Enes Kanter 0.14 16.89 0.0 12.0 1.8 0.5 0.6 57.0 12.4 83.5 3.3 2.0
-0.16 13.66 0.1 9.9 1.7 0.5 0.4 54.9 10.2 78.7 2.9 1.8
Diff -0.31 -3.23 0.1 -2.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -2.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.2
SD% 20.36 -43.0 -84.8 -22.1 -96.9 -94.4 -63.0 -66.4 -47.6 -46.7 -81.5 -71.6
Nikola Vucevic 0.09 14.43 1.0 8.7 3.0 0.9 1.0 47.0 13.1 80.0 1.4 1.7
0.46 20.81 1.1 12.0 3.8 1.0 1.1 51.8 16.9 78.9 2.8 2.0
Diff 0.37 6.38 0.1 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.8 0.0 1.4 0.3
SD% 45.99 12.5 -94.9 20.1 -62.0 -72.0 -74.1 -23.4 -9.2 -87.3 -26.0 -65.8
Will Barton 0.02 15.77 1.9 4.7 3.7 0.9 0.6 45.5 12.3 81.0 3.3 1.6
-0.46 11.50 1.6 4.6 2.9 0.4 0.5 40.2 10.7 77.0 1.7 1.5
Diff -0.48 -4.27 -0.3 -0.1 -0.8 -0.5 -0.1 -0.1 -1.6 0.0 -1.6 -0.1
SD% 90.77 -24.8 -69.5 -96.4 -63.7 24.5 -81.2 -15.0 -62.0 -55.8 -17.6 -88.1
Mike Conley -0.03 18.40 2.2 2.8 4.6 1.1 0.3 43.0 14.2 83.0 4.8 2.2
0.24 21.11 2.2 3.4 6.4 1.3 0.3 43.8 16.0 84.5 5.8 1.9
Diff 0.27 2.72 0.0 0.6 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.0 1.0 -0.3
SD% 6.83 -52.1 -98.5 -78.2 -17.7 -39.5 -97.3 -88.0 -57.2 -83.6 -48.5 -59.2
Danilo Gallinari -0.05 16.15 1.8 5.0 2.3 0.7 0.4 41.0 12.4 91.0 4.6 1.4
0.23 19.79 2.4 6.1 2.6 0.7 0.3 46.3 13.0 90.4 6.0 1.4
Diff 0.28 3.64 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.6 0.0 1.4 0.0
SD% 12.06 -35.8 -42.4 -58.4 -85.6 -94.9 -88.4 -14.7 -86.1 -93.3 -29.4 -95.1
Jabari Parker -0.07 17.66 1.4 5.9 2.5 0.9 0.4 49.0 13.8 74.0 3.7 1.8
-0.33 14.50 1.0 6.6 2.4 0.7 0.5 49.3 11.7 71.2 2.9 2.4
Diff -0.26 -3.16 -0.4 0.7 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.0 -2.1 0.0 -0.8 0.6
SD% 3.84 -44.2 -59.4 -74.6 -95.5 -50.2 -81.2 -95.2 -50.1 -69.1 -58.8 -28.6
Mario Hezonja -0.07 12.67 1.6 4.6 2.0 1.4 0.6 43.0 10.7 81.0 2.3 1.5
-0.57 8.80 0.7 4.1 1.5 1.0 0.1 41.2 8.0 76.3 2 1.5
Diff -0.50 -3.87 -0.9 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 0.0 -2.7 0.0 -0.3 0.0
SD% 97.87 -31.8 -8.6 -81.9 -77.3 -0.4 -6.0 -71.1 -35.9 -48.1 -84.6 -100
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson -0.11 14.76 0.3 7.0 2.2 1.1 0.7 47.5 11.2 78.0 4.9 1.9
-0.66 8.90 0.2 5.3 1.6 0.7 0.5 41.1 8.3 64.5 3.1 1.2
Diff -0.55 -5.86 -0.1 -1.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -2.9 -0.1 -1.8 -0.7
SD% 115.1 3.4 -89.8 -38.4 -72.8 -0.4 -62.4 2.7 -31.1 49.2 -7.3 -16.7
Brook Lopez -0.11 12.27 1.5 4.1 2.0 0.4 1.4 47.0 9.9 77.0 1.9 1.2
0.17 12.46 2.3 4.9 1.2 0.6 2.2 45.2 9.7 84.2 1.6 1.0
Diff 0.28 0.19 0.8 0.8 -0.8 0.2 0.8 0.0 -0.2 0.1 -0.3 -0.2
SD% 11.13 -96.7 -17.9 -71.4 -64.2 -49.0 52.3 -71.5 -95.0 -20.3 -86.7 -79.1
Jordan Bell -0.13 7.21 0.0 6.2 2.4 0.9 1.3 55.0 5.6 70.0 1.5 1.2
-0.70 3.30 0.0 2.7 1.1 0.3 0.8 51.6 2.8 61.0 0.6 0.6
Diff -0.57 -3.91 0.0 -3.5 -1.3 -0.6 -0.5 0.0 -2.8 -0.1 -0.9 -0.6
SD% 126.7 -31.0 -100 26.9 -41.1 49.4 -6.0 -45.5 -33.5 -0.6 -53.7 -28.6
E’Twaun Moore -0.13 12.88 1.8 3.4 3.2 1.1 0.2 47.5 10.9 72.0 1 1.4
-0.39 11.90 1.4 2.4 1.9 0.8 0.2 48.1 10 76.3 1.1 1.1
Diff -0.26 -0.98 -0.4 -1.0 -1.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.9 0.0 0.1 -0.3
SD% 2.89 -82.8 -59.4 -63.7 -41.1 -25.3 -100 -90.4 -78.6 -52.5 -94.9 -64.3
Goran Dragic -0.13 16.09 1.6 4.3 4.5 0.9 0.2 46.0 12.9 79.5 3.3 2.1
-0.39 13.70 1.6 3.1 4.8 0.8 0.1 41.4 12 78.2 2.8 2
Diff -0.26 -2.39 0.0 -1.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.9 0.0 -0.5 -0.1
SD% 1.52 -57.8 -100 -56.5 -86.4 -75.1 -81.2 -26.2 -78.6 -85.6 -74.3 -88.1
Dirk Nowitzki -0.14 11.23 1.7 5.4 1.4 0.5 0.6 45.0 9.4 89.0 1.2 0.6
-0.70 7.30 1.3 3.1 0.7 0.2 0.4 35.9 7.4 78.0 1 0.4
Diff -0.56 -3.93 -0.4 -2.3 -0.7 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -2.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2
SD% 122.5 -30.7 -59.4 -16.6 -68.3 -25.3 -62.4 46.0 -52.5 21.5 -89.7 -76.2
Jusuf Nurkic -0.14 15.22 0.0 9.5 2.2 0.9 1.5 50.0 12.8 62.0 3.9 2.5
0.13 15.63 0.0 10.4 3.2 1.0 1.4 50.8 11.5 77.3 5.1 2.3
Diff 0.27 0.41 0.0 0.9 1.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -1.3 0.2 1.2 -0.2
SD% 5.73 -92.8 -95.8 -67.8 -53.0 -82.0 -86.9 -86.4 -68.5 68.6 -39.8 -80.2
James Johnson -0.14 11.86 1.0 5.0 3.8 1.0 0.9 49.0 9.3 70.0 2.5 2.1
-0.54 7.80 0.9 3.2 2.5 0.6 0.5 43.3 6.9 71.4 1.3 1.3
Diff -0.40 -4.06 -0.1 -1.8 -1.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -2.4 0.0 -1.2 -0.8
SD% 56.52 -28.3 -89.8 -34.7 -41.1 -0.4 -24.8 -8.6 -43.0 -84.5 -38.2 -4.8
Allen Crabbe -0.18 12.18 2.5 4.0 1.4 0.6 0.4 42.0 9.9 85.5 1.6 0.8
-0.54 9.60 2.3 3.4 1.1 0.5 0.3 36.8 8.7 73.2 1.3 1.1
Diff -0.36 -2.58 -0.2 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -1.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.3
SD% 42.06 -54.4 -79.7 -78.2 -86.4 -75.1 -81.2 -16.6 -71.5 35.9 -84.6 -64.3
Mohamed Bamba -0.19 7.89 0.3 7.0 0.3 0.5 1.9 51.0 6 67.0 2.2 1.1
-0.49 6.20 0.4 4.9 0.8 0.3 1.4 48.1 5.2 58.7 1.3 0.9
Diff -0.30 -1.69 0.1 -2.1 0.5 -0.2 -0.5 0.0 -0.8 -0.1 -0.9 -0.2
SD% 17.93 -70.1 -89.8 -23.9 -77.3 -50.2 -6.0 -53.5 -81.0 -8.3 -53.7 -76.2
Deandre Ayton -0.21 12.50 0.2 8.6 1.4 0.5 1.2 52.0 9.4 72.0 3.5 2.0
0.14 16.30 0.0 10.3 1.8 0.9 0.9 58.5 12.2 74.6 2.7 1.8
Diff 0.35 3.80 -0.2 1.7 0.4 0.4 -0.3 0.1 2.8 0.0 -0.8 -0.2
SD% 36.86 -33.0 -79.7 -39.5 -83.7 -7.0 -51.8 3.6 -32.6 -71.2 -56.8 -73.2
DeMarre Carroll -0.21 12.20 1.8 6.2 1.7 0.9 0.4 41.0 10 76.0 2.9 1.2
-0.53 11.10 1.6 5.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 39.5 8.6 76.0 3.6 1.1
Diff -0.32 -1.10 -0.2 -1.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 -1.4 0.0 0.7 -0.1
SD% 27.87 -80.5 -79.7 -63.7 -81.9 24.5 -43.6 -75.9 -66.7 -100 -64.0 -88.1
Ersan Ilyasova -0.22 11.33 1.5 5.4 1.1 0.8 0.4 44.5 9.2 78.0 2.1 0.9
-0.54 6.80 0.9 4.5 0.8 0.5 0.3 43.8 5.7 82.4 1.1 0.7
Diff -0.32 -4.53 -0.6 -0.9 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 -3.5 0.0 -1.0 -0.2
SD% 25.99 -20.2 -39.1 -67.4 -86.4 -25.3 -81.2 -88.8 -16.9 -51.4 -48.5 -76.2
Gerald Green -0.24 13.15 2.7 3.6 0.9 0.6 0.4 41.0 10.9 84.0 1.8 1
-0.50 9.20 2.1 2.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 40.0 7.9 83.8 0.9 0.7
Diff -0.26 -3.95 -0.6 -1.1 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -3.0 0.0 -0.9 -0.3
SD% 4.04 -30.3 -39.1 -60.1 -81.9 -75.1 -100 -84.0 -28.7 -97.8 -53.7 -64.3
Jeremy Lamb -0.24 11.71 1.1 4.0 2.0 0.7 0.4 46.0 9.4 85.5 2.3 1.1
0.03 15.29 1.5 5.5 2.2 1.1 0.4 44.1 12.4 88.8 3.3 1.0
Diff 0.27 3.58 0.4 1.5 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 -0.1
SD% 6.96 -36.9 -63.9 -45.4 -92.0 3.1 -99.0 -69.0 -29.2 -63.0 -49.0 -89.6
Tyreke Evans -0.25 12.90 1.5 3.8 3.5 1 0.3 44.0 10.3 78.0 3 1.9
-0.64 10.20 1.1 2.9 2.4 0.8 0.3 38.9 9.6 71.9 2.3 1.7
Diff -0.39 -2.70 -0.4 -0.9 -1.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.7 -0.1 -0.7 -0.2
SD% 54.09 -52.3 -59.4 -67.4 -50.1 -50.2 -100 -18.2 -83.4 -32.6 -64.0 -76.2
Seth Curry -0.33 10.70 1.6 2.1 2.2 0.8 0.1 46.5 8.6 84.5 1.3 1.1
-0.58 7.90 1.5 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 45.6 6.3 84.6 0.7 0.8
Diff -0.25 -2.80 -0.1 -0.5 -1.3 -0.3 0.1 0.0 -2.3 0.0 -0.6 -0.3
SD% 0.52 -50.7 -89.8 -81.9 -41.1 -25.3 -81.2 -85.6 -45.4 -98.9 -69.1 -64.3

The percentages highlighted in red represent the stats that I missed on and were greater than the standard deviation. The closer the percentage is to 100, the greatest my miss, whereas negative percentages indicate that I succeeded in the prediction. If you see a -100%, you are legally obliged to buy me a sixpack of your choice beer and send it to my last known address, as this indicates a bullseye prediction with no error. Obviously, I only included in the above array the “missed” players, but I can assure you I did the exact same procedure for the remaining 124 players that were classified as “hits”. Some players that stand out from the misses are:

Kevin Durant: His decline in 3pt and blocks greatly affected his overall value.

Victor Oladipo: I was a believer in him building on his magnificent performance in 17/18, but injuries and inaccuracy from the field derailed his value.

Paul George: I don’t think anyone saw this type of season coming. I certainly didn’t, despite being on the optimistic side on his projections.

Nikola Vucevic: I thought Mohamed Bamba would play more and Vuc would be traded by the All-Star break. Couldn’t have been more wrong. Repeat after me: “We never bet against Vucevic in fantasy basketball.” I’ll put a note of this on my laptop for future reference…

Gary Harris, Will Barton: Both Nuggets flopped last year, but I expect bounce-back performances from both, to varying degrees though.

Dirk Nowitzki: I can’t type anything bad about this legend. One of the most likeable and skilled players to play the game.

Deandre Ayton: The big man surprised with his overall production and is poised for a great second year. I am very conservative with rookie projections and it usually pans out (Doncic, Trae Young last year), but Ayton was the notable exception.

Conclusions

The whole process concludes with the calculation of the absolute mean difference in value between my projection and the actual stats of the 2018-19 season. As a reminder, the smaller this number, the more accurate the projections. Last year, the number was 0.156 per player and I promised you good folks we would use it as the reference point. This year it was 0.16.

I was devastated when I saw that. OK, devastated may be an exaggeration, but I was mildly annoyed at least. I had the feeling when going through the comparisons that I did fairly well in most cases, so I checked the same numbers for the top 100. They were 0.163 to 0.142, which meant that the projections were better for the top 100 players. So, the answer is clear. I royally screwed up on the last 50 players in last year’s projections, with many failing to crack the top 300 at the end of the season. I especially blame Mr. Tyreke Evans and Mr. Jordan Bell, who had the audacity to finish the year ranked 310th and 354th respectively, despite my preseason trust. Lesson learned, I suppose, as I hopefully maintain the same success for the top 100 and improve on the more volatile players at the end on the rankings.

If you made it this far, I genuinely salute and thank you. It’s not the most typical fantasy content, but I think it’s important to try and improve the projections year in and out, and this is one way to do it. The actual projections for the top 155 players in roto will be released in the coming weeks, as I fine-tune them and psychologically recover from Boogie’s back-to-back injuries and adjust them accordingly.

 

As always, I’d be happy to reply to all your fantasy-related questions in the comments, as well as anything related to the method used for this article.

  1. moshe says:
    (link)

    I think 0.16 is a great number, tho I will might try to reference it with other ranks (like Yahoo or ESPN) in order to put a scale of how accurate your ranks compared to others.

    nice article overall, love the long read 😉

    • Kostas

      Kostas says:
      (link)

      Thanks moshe, glad there is an audience for this type of articles!

      I also think the number is good. In order to rate projections from the sites you mentioned, you have to calculate the per game value for each player based on their projection. Then you find the absolute difference from their actual value and find the mean of these differences. Voila, you have that number.

      I might do it myself and mention the results in one of the future articles, but right now my focus is the actual top155 projections for this year!

      • moshe says:
        (link)

        yeah will be interesting to see, but as a guy that rather play Roto than H2H I really waiting for your ranks

        • Kostas

          Kostas says:
          (link)

          My projections should be up in the coming week so the wait should be relative quick!

Comments are closed.