Hey everyone! It’s good to be back! After a nice little break, I figured it was time to get back to the old keyboard. This series will focus on the real world impact projections for rookies in the coming season, and also their projected fantasy value. If this post gets any interest, then the next would likely be on Buddy Hield, or possibly a request if anyone has one! With that housekeeping stuff out of the way, lets dive right in!
Ben Simmons will be a bust. “How do I know this?”, you incredulously ask. The answer to that is fairly straight forward. Simmons shies away from the moment, he has a mediocre jumper at best, and he really doesn’t have a position. Now by bust, I don’t mean that he won’t be a very productive player. However, a comparison to Lamar Odom or Boris Diaw is far more warranted than one to say, LeBron James.
I had the opportunity to see a couple of Ben’s games in high-school. He’s an incredible talent, and certainly a unique player. However, he is not a go-to scorer, and isn’t a shooter by any means. This limits his real world upside significantly. He needs to play along side a good scorer, and as of now, the Sixers don’t have one.
So what do I expect out of Simmons? It all depends on what position he plays. He cannot shoot the 3 at all, so that limits him to purely PF. This is a problem for the Sixers, who struggled with big spacing and a big logjam last year. This will be compounded with the addition of Simmons and the return of Embiid. Frankly, I’m not quite sure how this situation will work out, even with a trade.
To sum it all up, the lack of killer instinct and ability to space the floor will really hurt his real world value. If he can learn to be more aggressive when it comes to scoring, and develop an acceptable outside jumper, that could change. I don’t see that happening for a while though.
Now what you came for! Fantasy implications:
On the upside, Simmons should be a fantasy beast! My projection would be as follows:
The Good:
17 points – Barring a trade, Simmons should be the most talented scorer on the roster.
8 boards – This depends a lot on what position he plays, but I think 7-8 range is a fair estimate. He averaged over 11 per game at LSU.
4 assists – The issue is going to be finding guys that can convert. I’m seeing a lot of big to big passes and lobs.
Over a steal per game – Ben has fantastic hands and is quicker than most at the PF position. This is good news for his steal totals.
50+ FG% – Conservative shot selection will keep his FG% high.
The Bad:
Sub 70 FT% – It just isn’t pretty. 70% would seem to be the best case scenario. He averaged 68% at LSU. Many scouts believe that Simmons shoots his jumper and free throws with the wrong hand. He is supposed to be ambidextrous, but he clearly favors his right when finishing, but he shoots his jumper with the left. Just an interesting fact to keep in mind.
No Treys – None whatsoever. He made none in college and the NBA line is farther back.
Turnovers – A common problem with playmaking bigs. At LSU, they were at about 3.5 per game. I could see that number climbing to 4 if the Sixers use him as the primary distributor.
Conclusion:
Simmons would make a fantastic pick in 8 cat leagues, especially if he were to be paired with a good THRAGNOF guy. The TOs are a bit worrying in 9 cat, unless you’re punting. I’m extremely curious to see how he pans out, but I’m not as optimistic as some.
Let me know if you think I nailed it or feel free to tell me if I’m totally off base and a complete idiot! If you enjoyed, then please let me know, so I can continue the series, and leave some suggestions of players you want to see in the future!
That’s all for now lady and gents! Stay Razzy!
