Hey everyone!  It’s good to be back!  After a nice little break, I figured it was time to get back to the old keyboard.  This series will focus on the real world impact projections for rookies in the coming season, and also their projected fantasy value.  If this post gets any interest, then the next would likely be on Buddy Hield, or possibly a request if anyone has one!  With that housekeeping stuff out of the way, lets dive right in!

Ben Simmons will be a bust.  “How do I know this?”, you incredulously ask.  The answer to that is fairly straight forward.  Simmons shies away from the moment, he has a mediocre jumper at best, and he really doesn’t have a position.  Now by bust, I don’t mean that he won’t be a very productive player.  However, a comparison to Lamar Odom or Boris Diaw is far more warranted than one to say, LeBron James.

I had the opportunity to see a couple of Ben’s games in high-school.  He’s an incredible talent, and certainly a unique player.  However, he is not a go-to scorer, and isn’t a shooter by any means.  This limits his real world upside significantly.  He needs to play along side a good scorer, and as of now, the Sixers don’t have one.

So what do I expect out of Simmons?  It all depends on what position he plays.  He cannot shoot the 3 at all, so that limits him to purely PF.  This is a problem for the Sixers, who struggled with big spacing and a big logjam last year.  This will be compounded with the addition of Simmons and the return of Embiid.  Frankly, I’m not quite sure how this situation will work out, even with a trade.

To sum it all up, the lack of killer instinct and ability to space the floor will really hurt his real world value.  If he can learn to be more aggressive when it comes to scoring, and develop an acceptable outside jumper, that could change.  I don’t see that happening for a while though.

Now what you came for!  Fantasy implications:

On the upside, Simmons should be a fantasy beast!  My projection would be as follows:

The Good:

17 points – Barring a trade, Simmons should be the most talented scorer on the roster.

8 boards – This depends a lot on what position he plays, but I think 7-8 range is a fair estimate.  He averaged over 11 per game at LSU.

4 assists – The issue is going to be finding guys that can convert.  I’m seeing a lot of big to big passes and lobs.

Over a steal per game – Ben has fantastic hands and is quicker than most at the PF position.  This is good news for his steal totals.

50+ FG% – Conservative shot selection will keep his FG% high.

The Bad:

Sub 70 FT% – It just isn’t pretty. 70% would seem to be the best case scenario.  He averaged 68% at LSU.  Many scouts believe that Simmons shoots his jumper and free throws with the wrong hand.  He is supposed to be ambidextrous, but he clearly favors his right when finishing, but he shoots his jumper with the left.  Just an interesting fact to keep in mind.

No Treys – None whatsoever.  He made none in college and the NBA line is farther back.

Turnovers – A common problem with playmaking bigs.  At LSU, they were at about 3.5 per game.  I could see that number climbing to 4 if the Sixers use him as the primary distributor.

Conclusion:

Simmons would make a fantastic pick in 8 cat leagues, especially if he were to be paired with a good THRAGNOF guy.  The TOs are a bit worrying in 9 cat, unless you’re punting.  I’m extremely curious to see how he pans out, but I’m not as optimistic as some.

Let me know if you think I nailed it or feel free to tell me if I’m totally off base and a complete idiot! If you enjoyed, then please let me know, so I can continue the series, and leave some suggestions of players you want to see in the future!

That’s all for now lady and gents! Stay Razzy!

  1. Jim says:
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    So kind of Blake Griffin-lite with steals upside–at least in the early years?

    • Adam

      Adam says:
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      @Jim: Sounds fair to me! Hopefully Ben can overcome his issues like Blake did. I’m not going to bet on that though, especially not in his rookie year.

  2. Ryan says:
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    Hey Adam, I’d be interested to hear your takes on Hield and Dunn. They just feel like two of the guys most ready to contribute on day 1. I’m not very high on Hield, but oh man did he wind up on the right team.

    JB comped Dunn to MCW. I kinda see it, but think Dunn will be better. They’re both long PGs (wingspans) that play elite D and have TO+shooting issues. However, I think Dunn’s shooting problems are exaggerated. He avged 45% on FG throughout college, while MCW had always been a sub 40-40% guy prior to last season.

    TOs and FT (70%) could be MCW-esque at times, but I really don’t think he will get the the usage to be the drain MCW was in Philly. Idk, what do ya think? Not sure if he will be usable for all the in a 20-25 mpg role, but think he will at least be a good streaming option for steals+assists. This guy is a thief that could get close to 3 spg if given the run.

    • Adam

      Adam says:
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      @Ryan: I may be higher on Hield than most, but I don’t see a good reason to be down on him, particularly considering where he landed. (I’ll go into detail in my article, probably next week)

      As for Dunn, I may wait on writing something up because the situation is so murky right now. I could see Dunn having a small role off the bench or I could see Rubio being shipped and 30 minutes per game easily happening. It’s really hard to estimate his fantasy or real life impact at this point.

      I don’t want to get on JB’s case…. but here we go! I definitely agree that that is a lazy comp. Dunn does have some concerns, but he was a far better college player than MCW. A lot of his impact will hinge on his ability to knock down the spot up 3 ball. I’m confident that he can make that a part of his game. He’s a much better shooter than MCW is/was. If he can establish that, his driving ability is unquestioned.

      I’ll look into it more, but I could easily see him being something similar to Rondo with a jumper. This kid just knows how to play, he stays under control, and is very deliberate with all of his offensive decisions. With NBA caliber teammates, his assists could go significantly higher. This is why I don’t like judging college players by stats… There are just too many variables.

      Hopefully that answered some! I’ll get a Dunn overview out at some point… He’s a very intriguing player; I may have talked myself into doing it haha.

      • Ryan says:
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        Wow, Rondo with a jumper and no attitude problems, that almost sounds to good to be true! Agreed. I don’t like judging by college stats either, because its a totally different game. I had to reference his %s though to dispel the MCW comp haha.

        I feel like he might get 20-25 minutes a night if they don’t make any more signings or trades. Their depth at SG is pretty thin, so he should get some combo backup guard minutes behind Rubio and LaVine right? But if they do move Rubio, things obviously get a whole lot more interesting. Completely understand if you hold off this write-up until his role is a little less murkier though.

        • Adam

          Adam says:
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          @Ryan: Haha, yeah, MCW was not great in college… I don’t like him now either honestly.

          The Wolves seem to want to get younger and more athletic, so Rubio doesn’t really fit that mold. Maybe he hangs on for another year, but the job should be Dunn’s in the long run.

  3. Toni Vidal Ribes says:
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    After your great job in “JB & Slim Mock The 2016 NBA Draft”, “Porn Stars” and “2016 NBA Draft Review For Fantasy Impact” I don´t have too much questions about this draft by the moment.

    But I want to know if you see in the next couple of years someone who could be really be a superstar. Tim Duncan, Lebron or Kyrie, everybody knows that they are going to be big before his draft year.

    Do you see someone? I read about DeAndre Ayton…

    • Adam

      Adam says:
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      @Toni Vidal Ribes: Clearly Ingram and Simmons have that potential, so I’ll skip them (Ingram significantly more so though). A name I’ll just throw out there is Denzel Valentine. If he can stay healthy, he will be a force on both sides of the ball – An absolute steal for the Bulls if his knee doesn’t become an issue. I’m also pretty high on Hield and Dunn as well.

      Haha, Ayton has tools, but I refuse to project anyone under 18…. That sounded wrong, but you get what I’m saying.

      • Toni Vidal Ribes says:
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        @Adam:
        Thank you very much about your information on Denzel Valentine. I was looking some videos about him and I think he could be a Fantasy player like…. McDermott? Good shooter but not a handler in NBA (not much asist) and a “kanter man” on defensive stats. hahaha…
        Of course is a great oportunity in the second round, but I think he don´t be never a top-70. A THRAGNOF? I don´t know what is exactly “word by word” but I know what it mean.

        I´d love a “Rookie edition about him”

        (Sorry by my english and thank you very much for your help) 🙂

        • Adam

          Adam says:
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          @Toni Vidal Ribes: 7.8 assists per game for Valentine in his last year at Michigan St. He’s a great shooter, and a very disciplined player. THRAGNOF at worst, but I’m seeing more of a Brandon Roy type player. His game should transition very well. (again, subject to health)

          • Slim

            Slim says:
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            @Adam: I like the Brandon Roy comp. Low steals, no blocks, 4 year college player. But I think coming out of college Roy was a significantly better all around sorer. College career .512 FG% vs Valentines .443, significantly more FT attempts for Roy as a senior. So whereas Roy would finish at the rim or get fouled Valentine has to pass it out. So more assists for Valentine seems reasonable too.

            • Adam

              Adam says:
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              @Slim: Valentine also doubled Roy’s 3 point attempts, while shooting a higher percentage though. I think the extra longballs help to explain some of the FG% disparity. That 44% from deep with 7.5 attempts per game, looks very promising for Valentine.

              On a side note, I’m rather curious how much the system affects a player’s college stats and tendencies. I know that Izzo’s system stresses ball movement, and Valentine was encouraged to facilitate when driving. Not sure about with Roy.

              • Slim

                Slim says:
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                @Adam: I was thinking about a comp for Simmons and I’m thinking Giannis but quite a bit more NBA ready compared to Giannis’ rookie year.

                Yeah it’s tough with so many schools out there. Like the Washington coach is the same one since Roy was a freshman, but I can probably count how many Udub games I’ve seen since then on 1 hand.

                • Adam

                  Adam says:
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                  @Slim: Possibly… Giannis has far more athletic and shot blocking upside though, although I can see the resemblance. I think his rookie year will determine his comp. I’m still really feeling the Odom comp, with an inferior jumper.

                  • Slim

                    Slim says:
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                    @Adam: I had to look up Odoms stats. 4-5 assists per game surprised me. I didnt pay much attention to him until he came to the Heat and had that run in Wades rookie year. But yeah all those numbers seem right on. I think Simmons will be a shooter eventually. I think his REL draft day pricetag shouldnt be under $40.

                    A Lamar Odom career path would certainly justify that cost it in my opinion. Turns out it is really difficult to only talk about Odom as a basketball player. I must rufuse to play the TMZ/E! game. Damn its tough.

                    • Adam

                      Adam says:
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                      @Slim: The assists from a big man are really nice, however, I don’t see the jumper improving til he switches hands… That airball in summer league was very gratifying haha. I think a 35-40 pricetag is justified, but I will confidently say that he is not the best player coming out of this draft class. Time will tell though.

                      (On a side note it’s sad that you have to google “Lamar Odom Basketball” to get anything career related…)

  4. Toni Vidal Ribes says:
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    And another question, but not about rookies or 2016 draft.

    Conley + Tyreke + Derozan
    or
    Kanter + Gortat + Marvin Williams

    Dinasty – 12er – rot – 9cat

    thanks boys!!!

    • Adam

      Adam says:
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      @Toni Vidal Ribes: Not seeing a reason to pass on the Derozan side… Unless you’re absolutely desperate for big man stats. Conley should bounce back, and will likely be on a new team this year. Williams and Gortat are just getting old.

  5. Slim

    Slim says:
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    Does Durant in GS change the top 4 overall at all for you? There’s only one ball and we see what happened with Bosh and Love when they became the 3rd wheel. I think Westbrook jumps Harden, but the real question is does the needle move at all for Curry/Durant?

    • Adam

      Adam says:
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      @Slim: First of all, I’d just like to say fuck Durant! That was just a weak move… Moving to the Celtics could’ve saved his dignity a bit.

      No question that all 4 in GS take a little hit, but I think the real loser is Klay. Think of all the games that Klay starts out slow, but heats up in the second half. I don’t see that happening with another guy to go to. Quantity is partially due for the Warriors three point quality. I think this move makes Westbrook the safest play in the first round, not necessarily the best, but his stats are guaranteed.

      • Threekola says:
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        @Adam:

        If draft night were tonight, I’d take Westbrook first and feel great about it.

        My top 4 before the KD signing:

        Curry
        KD
        Harden
        Westbrook

        • Adam

          Adam says:
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          @Threekola: He’s a no brainer in 8 cat – 9 cat, I’d say there’s some debate, but he’s guaranteed to produce, and with Curry and KD a question mark, Westy and Harden seem to be the safest bets.

  6. Do you think Thaddeus go up or go Down in Pacers? Out of 50’s?

    And by the other side, I put Westbrook in rank 1. I can’t imagine how he feels. He wants to show everybody the kind of player he is. And I’m sure he fight to be a tríp-dub man finishing the season near 25/10/10. And don’t forget he is in contrat year.

    • Slim

      Slim says:
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      @Toni Vidal: Definitely down. I’ll go stat by stat… FG% should be about the same given that I don’t think he’ll be shooting 3s. So low to no 3s. FT% is bad but only about 2 attempts per game isn’t too annoying. Scoring should come down considering all the weapons the pacers have on offense. I’ll say 13.5-14 per game. Boards last year make no sense compared to his career avgs. It was the 1st time in his career he had over 8.0 per 36 and he had 9.9. Granted Myles isn’t a good rebounder but he’s no Brook Lopez! So I’ll go with close to 7.5 per game. Assists came down a smidge last year and with the ball in his hands even less I’m guessing it goes down a smidge more, 1.6ish. His 1.7 steals per 36 last year is on par with his career avg and even though he’ll be 28 years old I’ll still stick with 1.5 next year. 0.5 a block seems about right. 1.9 TOs should come down and maybe significantly since he won’t be asked to create his own shot. I’ll go with 1.5.

      .510/.660/0.1/13.5/7.5/1.6/1.5/0.5/1.5 :32 min

      I’m good with that and yeah, outside top-50 fo sho.

      I’m close to aggreeing with Westbrook #1. The trade rumors are going to be unbelievably annoying all year but even if he goes somewhere else he should still be #4-6 overall at the worst.

    • Adam

      Adam says:
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      @Toni Vidal: I agree with Slim on everything except the 3s… With the signing of Jefferson, I think Thad will be asked to space the floor a bit more. I doubt it’ll be enough to affect his value tremendously, but it’s a different dynamic than playing alongside Turner, who usually works as the spacer.

      I definitely take Westy 1 in an 8 cat league – that’s a no brainer. In 9 cat it’s more debatable, but given the question marks with KD and Curry, I’d say Harden and Westbrook are the safest 1st round picks at the moment. I highly doubt Westy gets traded this year, but even so, the worst you’re looking at is mid first round, and that’s a fantastic floor.

  7. I think Memphis is a good fit For Parsons. Are you agree?

    I can’t Wait for your 50’s re-rank and 75’s

    Great great job boys!!!

    • Adam

      Adam says:
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      @Toni Vidal: He’s definitely a main offensive option on that squad – somewhat hard to trust his injury history though.

      Thanks man!

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