Since I first pitched Son with the idea of writing a rookie column for the season, I’ve had the inclination to do a fantasy basketball mashup to the tune of “Creature Report! Creature Report!…” from The Octonauts. After more thought, I’ve decided to spare you wonderful Razzball readers from that … but I can’t promise it won’t happen eventually … and just get down to business (although anyone with young kids and a Netflix account has it stuck in your head just from a single mention).
The first matter of business is the untracked statistic of nastiness. We all know it when we see it on the court. But the Association just hasn’t evolved enough to be in a place it can define “The Nasty” in hashmark form. It’s a combo of skill, confidence + “Things that don’t show up on the stat sheet.” This is fantasy sports, where the box score is the Holy Grail. However, there’s still something to be said about recognizing a player whose nastiness is trending up. Of the crop of 2022-23 NBA first-timers, the early favorite for NROTY (Nastiest Rookie of the Year) is Bennedict Mathurin.
You never want to put much stock into preseason performance, so the fact Mathurin led all rookies in preseason scoring doesn’t mean much. But the “how” has been impressive. He scores at all three levels and already seems like one of the better finishers around the rim in the league. A major question for every rookie is how they will adjust to the speed and physicality of NBA ball, especially over an 82-game season. In preseason, Mautherin bodied up defenders in the paint to create space and actively sought out contact to use to his advantage. He’s also exhibited a high basketball IQ, so while he’s not a great passer, rebounder or defender, he should find enough counting stats to support his ~ 17 points per game — as well as the best new post-highlight snarl in the Association.
In both real and fantasy drafts this year, Mathurin was selected behind the four other rooks most expected to contribute in standard leagues this year (Banchero, Smith Jr., Murray and Ivey). Of the grouping, I predict Mathurin will have the greatest return on investment.
Or maybe that’s all just wishful thinking since I took him in the Razzball Writers League.
Finally, wouldn’t Bennedict Mathurin make a great name for a character in the Octon…. NOPE, said I wouldn’t do it!
Moving on. I’ll be providing updates on the 2022-23 rookie class throughout the season. While the above mentioned are the only players expected to be fantasy relevant to start the season, there’s inevitably going to be trades, injuries and breakouts that will change the rookie landscape for fantasy players along the way. I’ll also do my best to provide valuable insight (or insight nonetheless) for mid-season targets in both standard and deeper leagues, as well as targets to keep an eye out for in dynasty leagues.
A few notes from what else I saw during preseason to wet the whistle:
Tari Eason emerged from the preseason as the likeliest rookie breakout. He started the preseason being drafted around the 200 spot in deep drafts, but he went in the 10th round of the Razzball Writer’s League. He put up gaudy per-minute numbers in the preseason. That was mostly without Smith II on the floor (who played only one game), and his usage rate will depend on his ability to play alongside Smith. But you should check the waiver wire just in case he’s been overlooked by your league that drafted a month ago.
I’ll be keeping an eye on Jaylin Willams of the Thunder. … “Excuse me, you mean Jalen Williams.” No actually, Jaylin. “You keep misspelling Jalen Williams.” No, the Thunder are just such a pot of weird they decided to draft a Jaylin Williams and a Jalen Williams and now I have to go yell into a pillow. … Aaanyways, while JALEN has garnered some hype of late, he’s blocked by a slew of young guards and wings. However, JAYLIN is among a very average crop of Thunder bigs this year. He likely won’t see many minutes early. But he’s a good passer and all-around hustle guy, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the starting unit later in the season.
Speaking of big guys who pass well, Nikola Jovic … “Excuse me, you mean Nikola Jokic?” No, and I already beat that joke to death … starts the season out of the rotation. But how long can the Heat go on with Jimmy Buckets as their starting 4? Jovic has a little breakout potential if he is able to play down low for Miami, whose big men depth include Adebayo and, uh, hm, so, yeah. Now, that’s a BIG if for the 6-10 wing out of Serbia. But putting him on the watch list.
Remember for a hot minute when Jaden Hardy had a chance to start for the Mavericks? Never believed it; and Mavs coach Jason Kidd now says the No. 37 pick is “on the outside looking in” of the rotation to start the season.
And, finally, Walker Kessler, who you may as well call Walker Utah because he’s just soooooooo Utah. He’s. Looked. Good? At times. I planned to write some snarky trash talk about the guy, but I’m holding judgment back now as he put up 12 points and 10 boards in 24 minutes during his debut, shooting 5-for-5 from the field. The free throws are just trrrble. But, with Jazz likely to join the tankathon this year, we may all be saying Yes to the Kess by season’s end.
Speaking of tankathon, the fantasy landscape this season will shift depending on what teams actively seek out ping pong balls instead of wins for a chance at Victor Wembanyama. Tanking teams can lead to some late breakouts from guys who start the season out of the rotation. But they can also lead to rookies who’re playing too well to come down with fake injuries in the second half of the season. The unknown of these squads makes me weary, and I’ll likely try to move off of players on these teams before the deadline in redraft leagues. To start the season, my Spidey Tank Senses tell me the most likely to win the race to the bottom are: Spurs, Thunder, Rockets, Pistons, Jazz.
As a rookie myself here at Razzball, I would love any comments on the new crop of NBA players down below. Until next time.
