Thursday Night DFS Dunks

Welcome to Thursday Night DFS Dunks with me, Cousin Timmy.  I will break down the NBA slate and give you my starting five for both FanDuel and Draftkings.  These will be my core plays (guys I’ll be playing in my lineups with my money) for hitting the cash line in 50/50s and double-up contests.  If you’re looking for GPP winning plays you’ll have to follow me on Twitter (@TimmySperos) and then we can talk. At the end of the article, I’ll have a pool of three to five players I like that you can use to fill-in the rest of your lineups. Since this is the first article of the season I’d like to give you some general strategies you should be thinking about before we get to my favorite plays. Here we go.

Strategies

1. Focus on teams with high game totals and a high pace of play. The Wizards played at the highest pace of 104.67 possessions per game and had the 9th worst defensive rating. Stacking Wizards games was very common last season.
2. Select players from high game totals that play lots of minutes and have high usage rates or FPP ( fantasy points per minute). Over time, when comparing two players with similar salaries, choose minutes over a hot hand. It’s the correct thing to do.
3. NBA may be the toughest DFS sport to play for a few reasons.  Number one is time. Throughout the season players will get ruled out for rest, injury, or because they think the earth is flat. This tends to happen shortly before lock or even after lock as we experienced last year. It’s imperative that you make yourself available for the 15 minutes before lock or you may lose some money for a simple user error.   

Ok now that you know the basic strategy, it’s time for some easy dunks.

Tonight’s games

The Starting 5

PG: Luka Doncic, Mavericks (DK 10.6K,  FD 11K)

Entering his fourth season, Luka is going to be in the MVP conversation. A threat to record a triple-double every night, Doncic is a lock for cash game lineups tonight on this small three-game slate. He is the most expensive PG, but worth it.  In two games vs Atlanta last season Luka averaged 27.5ppg, 9rpg, 12apg, and 1.5 spg which translated to 64.5 DK points, nine more than his season average.

SG: Jordan Poole, Warriors (DK 5.5K, FD 5.2K)

Poole is entering his second season with the Warriors, will start for the foreseeable future (until Klay Thompson returns), and is in the running for Most Improved Player. Teams like to collapse on Curry forcing him to drive and kick leaving teammates like Poole open for three. Poole had 20 points on 8-18 shooting in 25 minutes in the Warriors win in LA on Tuesday night. Lock him in now at this cheap price as sometime next week he’ll be in the 6-7K range.

SF: Jordan Nwora, Bucks (DK 3.7K, FD 4.3K) 

Nwora received limited minutes as a rookie and has played himself into a role this season. He had a 30 point game in the pre-season (Giannis/Middleton didn’t play) and got significant minutes on opening night, 26 to be exact.  Jordan had 15 points, six rebounds, a block, a steal, and shot 3-for-6 from deep. The Bucks will be without Bobby Portis again and may also be without Jrue Holiday which would give Nwora a slight usage bump.  His price will go up over the next week but for now its too good to pass up.

PF: Giannis, Bucks (DK 10.3K, FD 11.3K)

The Greek Freak. No, I’m not talking about myself here, but the two-time MVP. What else do we need to say about this guy? He’s possibly improved his free throw shooting and his three-point stroke. The sky is the limit and I mean like a 13K salary at some point this season. His salary is high on both sites but on a three-game slate, I don’t think we can fade these 50+ fantasy points tonight.

C: John Collins, Hawks (DK 6.8K, FD 6.4K)

Collins comes with a solid floor and a high ceiling playing alongside Trae Young. In two games vs. Dallas, last season he averaged 34 points and 10 rebounds good for 51 fantasy points which were 20 more than his season average of 31. His athleticism and speed aren’t something that the Dallas bigs can match up with. Collins had at least 13 points and eight rebounds in each of his four preseason games all under 29 minutes. I expect him to play 32-34 minutes in a close game tonight vs the Mavs.

Other guys on my radar:

1. Pat Connaughton, Bucks (DK 4.5K, FD 4.3K)
2. Nemanja Bjelica, Warriors (DK 4.8K, FD 4.6K)
3. De’Andre Hunter, Hawks (DK 4.7K, FD 4.3K)
4. Paul George, Clippers (DK 9.7K, FD 9.9K)

Feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions or need help with lineup building. Good luck tonight and I’ll see you guys next week!

Cousin Timmy

@TimmySperos