After watching a lot of unnecessary tape of prospects for the draft, patiently waiting for all the free agency and trade dominoes to fall, reflecting upon the performance review of last year’s projections and meditating exactly 14.5 minutes per day while sitting on the crane pose from the original Karate Kid, I am honored and ready to present you my top 155 projections for roto for the 2021-22 season!

As always (it’s the fifth straight year doing these projections from Son’s dungeon grace), note that each player’s value presented is their per-game value, so some players will be higher than the position I would draft them. Injury risk, games played and personal preference are not included so use them as a baseline for your drafting but do rearrange them based on your preferences and willingness to risk. If you are interested in finding out the method used to calculate the player values check this previous article of mine. Without further ado, let’s check the projections before a mention of some notable players.

# Name Val pts 3pt reb ast stl blk fg% fga ft% fta tos
1 Nikola Jokic 0.76 24.5 1.2 10.5 8 1.3 0.7 55 17.2 85 5.2 3
2 James Harden 0.65 24.2 2.7 7.3 10.6 1.3 0.8 47 16.5 86 7 3.8
3 Stephen Curry 0.65 29.9 5.2 5.3 6 1.1 0.1 48 20.4 92 5.6 3.3
4 Karl-Anthony Towns 0.59 25.4 2.7 10.7 4.7 0.9 1.2 49 17.7 85 6.3 3.2
5 Jimmy Butler 0.58 21.4 0.5 6.5 6.1 1.9 0.4 49 14 86 8.4 1.9
6 Kyrie Irving 0.57 26.1 2.8 4.5 5.8 1.4 0.5 49 19.9 91 4.2 2.3
7 Damian Lillard 0.51 29.3 4 4.2 7.9 0.9 0.3 45 20.5 90 7.6 3.1
8 Joel Embiid 0.49 27.4 1.1 10 2.9 0.9 1.3 51 17.3 84 10.3 3.1
9 Anthony Davis 0.48 23.5 0.9 8.4 3.2 1.3 1.8 50 17.5 79 6.5 2.3
10 Kevin Durant 0.46 25.3 2.2 6.8 4.7 0.7 1.1 53 16.5 88 6.4 3.1
11 Jayson Tatum 0.44 27.0 3 7.2 4.5 1.3 0.6 45 21.2 87 5.6 2.8
12 Giannis Antetokounmpo 0.42 28.4 1.3 11.5 6 1.2 1.1 56 18.5 69 9.2 3.5
13 Bradley Beal 0.40 31.2 2.7 5.1 5.6 1.2 0.4 46 23.3 87 8.1 3.3
14 Nikola Vucevic 0.37 21.0 2.2 11.6 3 0.8 0.8 48 18.2 82 1.6 1.6
15 Domantas Sabonis 0.34 20.5 0.9 11.9 6.5 1.3 0.5 54 14.6 73 5.2 3.2
16 Kristaps Porzingis 0.32 20.0 2.4 9 1.7 0.6 1.6 46 16 84 3.4 1.4
17 Paul George 0.31 25.0 3.5 7 5.5 1.3 0.4 44 19.4 86 5.1 3.5
18 Bam Adebayo 0.29 18.7 0 9.3 4.4 1.2 1.1 57 12.7 76 5.6 2.4
19 Michael Porter 0.28 21.7 3.3 7.1 1.4 0.7 0.8 52 15.7 82 2.5 1.7
20 Jrue Holiday 0.28 18.2 2 4.7 6.3 1.5 0.6 50 14.4 76 2.4 2.2
21 Luka Doncic 0.28 28.8 3.2 8.2 8.8 1 0.5 48 20.9 74 7.5 4.2
22 Clint Capela 0.26 14.7 0 14 1 0.8 1.8 60 10.6 57 3.4 1.2
23 Chris Paul 0.25 15.6 1.4 4.2 8.5 1.3 0.2 50 12.1 92 2.3 2
24 Fred VanVleet 0.25 21.2 3.6 4 7.4 1.6 0.4 38 18.5 86 4.1 2.5
25 Rudy Gobert 0.24 14.3 0 13.3 1.4 0.6 2.4 67 8.2 63 5.2 1.8
26 Myles Turner 0.24 12.5 1.4 6.6 1.1 0.8 2.9 47 9.4 77 2.9 1.5
27 Brandon Ingram 0.23 24.7 2.5 5.4 5.5 0.8 0.6 47 18.4 86 5.7 2.7
28 Deandre Ayton 0.22 15.5 0.1 10.8 1.5 0.7 1.3 62 10.8 76 2.7 1.7
29 Mikal Bridges 0.22 13.8 2 4.4 2.1 1.3 0.8 53 9.6 84 1.9 0.9
30 Shai Gilgeous 0.22 22.9 2.1 5 6.2 1 0.7 50 15.8 80 6.3 2.8
31 John Collins 0.21 18.7 1.4 7.8 1.4 0.6 1.1 56 12.9 82 3.5 1.5
32 Christian Wood 0.20 20.8 2.1 10.1 1.5 0.8 1.3 53 14.8 66 4.6 1.9
33 Richaun Holmes 0.20 14.6 0 8.6 1.6 0.7 1.4 63 9.8 79 2.9 1.3
34 Trae Young 0.20 26.2 2.4 4 9.7 0.9 0.1 44 18.3 88 8.8 4
35 Zach LaVine 0.19 25.2 3.2 4.4 3.9 0.9 0.5 51 17.8 84 4.6 3.2
36 O.G.Anunoby 0.18 17.8 2.6 5.4 2.6 1.5 0.7 47 13.8 76 2.9 1.9
37 Jaren Jackson Jr 0.17 17.2 2.2 5 1.3 1 1.8 46 12.8 80 4 1.6
38 Tobias Harris 0.17 19.5 1.5 7 3.3 0.8 0.6 50 15.3 87 3.1 1.6
39 Khris Middleton 0.17 20.4 2.3 6.1 5 1 0.1 48 15.5 90 3.6 2.4
40 Pascal Siakam 0.17 22.1 1.5 7.4 5 1.1 0.8 45 17.9 81 5.6 2.5
41 Julius Randle 0.17 22.4 2.1 10.1 4.6 0.9 0.4 47 16.9 79 5.6 2.8
42 Mitchell Robinson 0.15 9.2 0 8.6 0.7 1.3 1.7 67 6.1 52 1.9 0.9
43 Donovan Mitchell 0.15 26.1 3.3 4.4 5 1 0.3 44 20.4 85 5.7 2.7
44 Dejounte Murray 0.15 18.0 1.1 7.4 6.3 1.5 0.2 45 16.6 80 2.5 2.1
45 Jaylen Brown 0.14 25.5 3 6.2 3.8 1.2 0.5 48 19.9 74 4.6 3
46 Lonzo Ball 0.14 13.9 2.9 4.5 7.3 1.5 0.6 42 12.1 73 1.1 2.5
47 Tyrese Halibutron 0.13 14.0 2.3 3.4 4.9 1.4 0.5 47 11.4 85 1.2 1.5
48 Jusuf Nurkic 0.13 14.0 0.5 10.2 3.9 1.1 1.3 51 10.7 70 3.7 2.2
49 De’Aaron Fox 0.12 26.4 1.9 3.8 7.4 1.6 0.5 48 19.9 72 7.5 3.2
50 Zion Williamson 0.12 28.9 0.4 7.7 4.8 1 0.6 60 18.5 69 9.1 3.2
51 LeBron James 0.11 23.9 2.3 6.9 6.8 1.1 0.5 51 17.5 69 5.4 3.4
52 Robert Covington 0.11 9.0 2 6.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 41 7.5 80 1 1
53 Chris Boucher 0.10 14.3 1.7 7 1.3 0.6 1.6 50 9.9 78 3.5 1.1
54 Jonas Valanciunas 0.10 15.2 0.5 11.6 1.5 0.4 1 57 10.9 77 3 1.4
55 Gordon Hayward 0.10 20.6 1.8 5.6 4.4 1 0.3 48 15.7 85 4.4 2.2
56 LaMelo Ball 0.10 17.5 2 6.3 7.2 1.5 0.4 44 14.6 75 3.5 2.9
57 Robert Williams 0.09 10.4 0 7.6 1.6 0.8 1.6 71 6.6 63 1.7 1.2
58 Malcolm Brogdon 0.09 21.7 2.4 5.1 6.4 0.8 0.2 45 18.2 88 3.3 2.2
59 CJ McCollum 0.08 23.5 3.3 4 4.5 0.8 0.4 45 19.7 81 3 1.7
60 Terry Rozier 0.08 20.5 3.3 4.4 4.4 1.1 0.3 44 16.7 83 3 2.1
61 Kemba Walker 0.07 20.6 3.2 4 5.3 1 0.3 42 16.4 88 4.1 2.3
62 Devin Booker 0.07 26.2 2 4.2 4.5 0.8 0.3 48 19.4 88 6.3 3.2
63 Caris LeVert 0.06 20.5 1.6 4.4 5.1 1.5 0.5 44 17.7 79 4.2 2.2
64 Bogdan Bogdanovic 0.05 15.8 3.1 3.4 3.2 1.1 0.2 47 12.4 85 1.2 1.1
65 Kyle Lowry 0.05 15.8 2.6 4.7 6.2 1.1 0.3 44 11.9 87 3.1 2.5
66 Cade Cunningham 0.05 15.7 2.1 5.2 3.7 1.2 0.5 43 12.8 80 3.3 1.2
67 Draymond Green 0.04 7.5 0.6 6.8 8.2 1.5 0.8 44 6.4 78 1.6 2.8
68 Derrick White 0.04 17.4 2.5 3.5 4.2 0.8 1 43 13.8 85 3.6 1.6
69 PJ Washington 0.04 14.0 2 6.9 2.8 1.2 1.1 45 11.4 73 2.4 2.1
70 Marcus Smart 0.03 14.3 2.1 3.7 6.5 1.6 0.5 39 11.8 80 3.7 2.2
71 Jerami Grant 0.02 21.6 2.2 4.4 2.1 0.7 1 45 16.2 83 5.8 1.7
72 Norman Powell 0.00 18.3 2.1 3.5 2 1.2 0.4 46 13.8 86 4.1 1.7
73 Ben Simmons -0.01 15.5 0.1 7.5 7.3 1.7 0.6 57 10.8 61 5.1 3.2
74 Kelly Olynyk -0.01 14.4 1.9 6.5 2.2 1 0.5 47 11.2 84 2.4 1.6
75 Anthony Edwards -0.01 21.1 2.6 5 3.4 1.2 0.5 44 17.3 79 4.1 2.5
76 Collin Sexton -0.02 24.2 1.6 3.1 4 1.1 0.1 49 18 83 6 2.6
77 Jarrett Allen -0.02 13.9 0.1 10.1 1.8 0.5 1.4 62 8.5 69 4.7 1.6
78 Jonathan Isaac -0.03 10.1 1 6.1 1.3 1.2 1.5 43 8.8 77 2 1.3
79 Mike Conley -0.03 15.2 2.4 3.2 5.6 1.2 0.2 43 12.3 84 2.6 1.8
80 Buddy Hield -0.03 17.9 3.9 4.8 3.3 0.9 0.3 42 15 85 1.7 2
81 Malik Beasley -0.06 18.3 3.2 4.2 3 0.8 0.2 45 15 84 1.9 1.5
82 Isaiah Stewart -0.06 10.4 0.4 8.2 1.3 0.7 1.5 53 8.3 72 1.7 1.4
83 TJ Warren -0.06 17.0 1.2 3.7 1.4 1.1 0.5 51 13.4 80 2.7 1.2
84 D’Angelo Russell -0.06 21.2 3.2 3.5 6.2 1.1 0.3 43 17.2 78 4.1 3
85 Darius Garland -0.07 18.7 2.1 2.6 5.5 1.3 0.1 46 15.6 86 2.6 2.7
86 Andrew Wiggins -0.07 17.7 2 4.8 2.6 0.9 1 47 14.4 71 3.1 1.7
87 Chuma Okeke -0.07 11.4 1.2 4.3 2.6 1.3 0.7 44 10.6 83 1.1 1
88 DeMar DeRozan -0.07 18.9 0.2 4 4.2 0.9 0.2 50 13.7 86 5.8 1.8
89 T.J.McConnell -0.08 8.1 0.2 3.5 6.4 1.6 0.2 54 6.9 75 0.6 1.8
90 Brook Lopez -0.08 11.5 1.5 4.8 1 0.6 1.4 48 8.8 84 1.9 0.9
91 Kyle Anderson -0.08 10.6 1.2 5.2 3.1 1.1 0.7 47 8.1 76 2.4 1.1
92 Larry Nance -0.08 8.8 1 6.9 2.2 1.4 0.4 50 7.1 64 1.1 1.3
93 Jakob Poeltl -0.09 9.6 0 8.4 2.1 0.7 1.7 62 6.9 50 2 1.4
94 Devonte’ Graham -0.09 16.3 3.3 3 6.3 1 0.2 38 13.6 83 3.2 1.9
95 Brandon Clarke -0.10 11.0 0.4 5.8 1.5 1 0.8 54 8.5 72 2 0.8
96 Evan Fournier -0.10 16.3 2.6 2.7 2.8 1.1 0.3 46 12.3 80 3 1.6
97 Donte DiVincenzo -0.11 11.1 2.1 5.8 3.4 1.2 0.3 43 9.4 72 1.3 1.5
98 Miles Bridges -0.11 12.0 1.6 6.2 2.2 0.7 0.8 48 9.2 85 1.9 1.6
99 Harrison Barnes -0.12 15.4 1.6 6.1 2.7 0.7 0.2 48 11 83 3.9 1.4
100 Nerlens Noel -0.12 4.7 0 5.4 0.5 1 1.8 60 3.3 72 1 0.9
101 Saddiq Bey -0.13 14.8 3 5.2 1.9 0.9 0.3 40 12.1 83 2.5 1.2
102 Matisse Thybulle -0.13 5.0 0.9 2.1 1.1 1.7 1.2 42 4.5 55 0.5 0.7
103 De’Anthony Melton -0.14 10.2 1.9 3.9 3.1 1.3 0.5 42 8.5 79 1.5 1.5
104 Keldon Johnson -0.15 16.7 1.3 6.4 2.2 0.8 0.4 48 13.4 76 3.3 1.4
105 Jeremy Lamb -0.15 11.3 1.5 3.9 1.8 1 0.5 44 8.8 89 2.3 0.9
106 Facundo Campazzo -0.15 8.2 1.4 3 4.7 1.3 0.2 41 6.2 90 1.9 1.3
107 Russell Westbrook -0.15 20.3 1.2 8.7 8.1 1.3 0.4 45 17.1 68 5.5 4.2
108 Kelly Oubre Jr -0.15 15.1 1.6 5.3 1.3 1.1 0.8 44 12.8 75 3 1.5
109 Gary Trent Jr -0.16 17.5 2.9 3.8 1.6 1.1 0.3 40 16.2 80 2 1
110 Mason Plumlee -0.16 9.7 0 8.7 2.5 0.8 1 61 6.5 62 2.8 1.5
111 Al Horford -0.16 10.8 1.1 5.7 3 0.6 0.7 49 9.1 82 0.9 1
112 Jordan Clarkson -0.16 18.2 3 3.8 2.7 0.8 0.2 43 15.4 87 2.3 1.8
113 Lauri Markkanen -0.17 14.5 2.5 5.7 1.2 0.6 0.4 46 11.1 83 2.2 1.3
114 Duncan Robinson -0.17 13.2 3.6 3.4 1.4 0.6 0.3 45 9.8 85 0.9 0.9
115 Ja Morant -0.17 20.9 1.4 4.4 7.8 0.9 0.3 46 16.1 75 6.2 3
116 Wendell Carter Jr -0.17 11.0 0.2 8.5 1.6 0.8 0.8 50 8.8 73 2.8 1.2
117 Josh Hart -0.18 8.9 1.5 7.4 2.1 1 0.3 43 7 76 1.8 1.1
118 Jae Crowder -0.18 10.7 2.7 5.1 2.3 0.9 0.4 40 8.5 77 1.5 1.1
119 Serge Ibaka -0.18 12.4 1.1 6.4 1.6 0.3 1.2 51 9.9 78 1.5 1.3
120 Nickeil Alexander-Walker -0.18 15.8 2.5 3.8 3.3 1.2 0.4 42 14.1 74 2 2
121 Joe Harris -0.19 13.6 3 3.7 1.7 0.6 0.2 49 10 78 1 1
122 De’Andre Hunter -0.19 13.8 1.4 4.5 1.7 0.8 0.5 46 10.4 84 3.4 1.2
123 Patrick Williams -0.19 10.3 1.2 5.4 1.5 1.1 0.6 49 7.7 76 2 1.5
124 Joe Ingles -0.20 10.9 2.5 3.7 5 0.8 0.2 46 8 82 1.3 1.9
125 Nicolas Batum -0.20 8.1 1.5 4.6 2.5 0.9 0.5 45 6.4 85 1 0.9
126 Jalen Suggs -0.21 13.5 1.2 4.4 4.1 1.4 0.3 46 11.1 74 2.8 2.4
127 Dennis Schroder -0.21 16.1 1.6 3.6 5.4 1 0.2 44 12.9 84 3.8 2.6
128 Kevin Huerter -0.21 11.2 1.8 3.5 3.1 1 0.3 44 9.9 80 0.8 1
129 Bojan Bogdanovic -0.21 18.1 2.8 4 2 0.6 0.1 44 13.4 89 3.9 2
130 Mo Bamba -0.21 9.3 1 7.2 1.1 0.4 1.5 47 7.7 68 1.6 1
131 Will Barton -0.21 13.7 1.9 4.5 3.8 1 0.4 43 11.8 78 2.1 1.9
132 Danny Green -0.21 8.7 2.3 3.5 1.5 1.1 0.6 41 7.4 75 0.5 1
133 Jae’Sean Tate -0.21 11.0 0.8 4.8 2.2 1.1 0.5 51 8.7 70 1.9 1.3
134 Bobby Portis -0.22 11.6 1.2 6.8 1.2 0.7 0.4 50 9.4 76 1.3 1.1
135 Royce O’Neale -0.23 6.6 1.4 6.5 2.5 0.8 0.5 44 5.3 82 0.7 1.1
136 Dorian Finney-Smith -0.23 9.6 1.8 5.2 1.6 0.8 0.4 47 7.6 74 0.9 0.9
137 Reggie Jackson -0.23 14.0 2.3 3.8 4.5 0.7 0.1 44 11.7 82 1.7 1.5
138 Tim Hardaway Jr -0.23 17.1 3.2 3.5 2 0.5 0.1 44 13.3 82 2.7 1.1
139 Klay Thompson -0.23 16.6 2.7 3.3 2.1 0.6 0.4 45 14.2 80 1.4 1.3
140 Derrick Rose -0.24 13.5 0.9 2.4 3.5 0.9 0.3 48 11 87 2.3 1.3
141 Derrick Favors -0.24 8.3 0 7.8 1.1 0.5 0.8 60 6.2 69 1.3 0.8
142 R.J.Barrett -0.24 17.2 1.9 5.6 2.8 0.8 0.3 45 14.1 75 3.5 1.9
143 Marcus Morris -0.25 15.0 2.6 4.6 1.2 0.6 0.3 45 11.9 82 2.1 1.3
144 Spencer Dinwiddie -0.25 19.2 1.9 4 7.2 0.7 0.3 42 15.5 80 5.3 2.9
145 Terance Mann -0.25 11.1 1 5.1 2.4 0.7 0.4 48 8.5 83 2.3 1.1
146 Cameron Johnson -0.25 11.8 2.5 4.2 1.7 0.7 0.3 43 9.6 84 1.3 1
147 Nicolas Claxton -0.26 7.7 0 6.3 1.1 0.8 1.5 63 5.2 50 2.3 0.9
148 Danilo Galinari -0.26 12.0 1.8 3.7 1.3 0.6 0.2 44 8.6 91 2.9 0.7
149 Rui Hachimura -0.26 14.3 0.9 5.8 1.6 0.8 0.2 48 11.6 79 2.9 1.2
150 Thomas Bryant -0.26 12.3 0.8 5.8 1.3 0.4 0.7 59 8.6 66 2.1 1
151 Devin Vassell -0.27 9.4 1.3 4.4 1.5 1 0.4 42 8.2 85 1.4 0.8
152 Seth Curry -0.27 12.4 2.3 2.3 2.9 0.7 0.1 47 9.5 87 1.4 1.1
153 Daniel Gafford -0.27 7.9 0 4.9 0.7 0.6 1.6 66 4.8 66 2.3 1.1
154 Terrence Ross -0.27 13.3 1.7 3.3 1.7 1.1 0.3 41 11.6 86 2.4 1.3
155 Tyler Herro -0.27 15.0 2.2 4.7 2.7 0.6 0.2 45 12.4 84 2 1.7

 

Notable Players

Nikola Jokic: What a season he had, both in real life and in fantasy. It would take a top 2 pick to get him this year and I wouldn’t hesitate one bit to grab him there.

Jimmy Butler: While ranking him fifth seems like a reach, he also finished the season fifth in per-game value last year. I wouldn’t draft him at this position because he has a tendency to miss 25-30 games per season but his per-game value is elite.

Domantas Sabonis: Am I an idiot for believing so much in him? Maybe, but I think Carlisle has the acumen to further unlock his offensive game.

Kawhi Leonard, Jamal Murray: Both will miss a huge portion (if not all of) the season so I didn’t include them in the projections.

Michael Porter Jr: I tend to stay pessimistic on most “hype trains” but I have to make an exception here.  He was excellent once Murray went down and has a very fantasy-friendly game that will translate into value this season.

Luka Doncic: I know most people rank him way higher, but the value algorithm can’t get past his turnovers and ft% woes.

Jusuf Nurkic: I really like Nurkic as a sleeper pick this season, after a down year and with Portland going all in for a championship run.

DeMar DeRozan: A favorite target of mine in drafts throughout the years, for his unique blend of points with good percentages, DeRozan takes a hit this year with all the other offensive weapons on Chicago’s roster.

Russell Westbrook: Westbrook falls outside my top 100 and before his many fans burn me on a stick for my heresy, I would like to point out that he ranked 77th last season and is moving to a team that features LeBron as the primary ball-handler.

John Wall: Last year, I took the bold step of not including Wall in my top 155 projections, as I anticipated that his first year in Houston after the injuries would not be successful fantasy-wise, contrary to popular belief. The risk paid off as he indeed finished the season 169th in per-game value and I think this will continue, barring a trade.

 

Thanks to everyone who commented with kind words on the previous articles and I sincerely hope the projections help you conquer your fantasy leagues this year. Happy drafting and do drop a comment below to discuss the projections and all other fantasy offseason questions!

  1. CeeCee says:
    (link)

    Your work is appreciated. I came in 2nd last yr using your work

    Thanks

    • Kostas

      Kostas says:
      (link)

      Thanks CeeCee, best of luck for this year as well!

  2. DM says:
    (link)

    I drafted a team in my 8cat league that seems to favor punting steals. Any suggestions for guys I should be targeting in a trade. Middleton?

    Booker
    Trea Young
    Norman Powell
    Christian Wood
    Vucevic
    Brandon Ingram
    John Collins
    JJJ
    Jacob Poeltl
    Dejounte Murray
    Gary Trent Jr
    Dort

Comments are closed.