2021-22 Dallas Mavericks Preview

After a heartbreaking first-round exit, the Dallas Mavericks made relatively small adjustments over the offseason.  That’s not to say the past few months have been without drama in The Big D.  At the center of the post-season speculation was Kristaps Porzingis, who had a rough series against the Clippers.  While there may have been some talk of shopping him, it likely dissipated when the Mavs realized the extent of the decrease in trade value.  Other trade rumors involved the Mavs making a deal with the Raptors to bring Goran Dragic to Dallas.  That deal hasn’t materialized, but stay tuned.  In the meantime, the Maverick core remains intact, as Porzingis remains on the roster and Dragic is still in Toronto.  With real-world expectations running high for another season, let’s take a look at the roster from a fantasy perspective.

• Key Additions: Reggie Bullock, Sterling Brown, Moses Brown

• Key Departures: Josh Richardson

• 2020-21 Record: 42-30

Backcourt: The great Luka Doncic fantasy hoops debate continues: Is he a first-round pick in 12-team leagues?  ESPN has him at three in its pre-draft room, while Yahoo ranks him 33rd.  For context, he finished 37th in nine-category formats last season.  Yes, the counting stats are nice – 27 / 8 / 8 with 3 three-pointers.  He also took another big leap in efficiency from the field last season, converting nearly 48% of attempts.  That gives you an edge in four categories and keeps you afloat in FG%.

Now let’s examine the downsides.  The most glaring are below average free-throw shooting (73%) on high volume and mediocre defensive numbers (1 steal, 0.5 blocks last season).  For those in nine-category leagues, the turnovers are also a liability, though they shouldn’t be your first consideration.  Even with incremental improvements in one or more of these areas, I don’t see a leap from 37 to the top 12 this season.  Though I understand the joy of having Luka on your squad, I recommend leaving him for someone else in the first round of category league drafts.

The only significant shakeup on the Dallas roster comes at the two-guard position, where Josh Richardson is out.  This likely results in Tim Hardaway Jr. stepping into the starting role.  In 28 minutes per game last season, he averaged over 16 points with three 3-pointers.  Those numbers may get a slight boost if he plays 30 or more minutes each game this year.  Just remember, he doesn’t do anything else for your fantasy team in category formats.  As a result, I’ll look to avoid him until the final rounds of 12-team drafts unless I’m desperately in need of points at an earlier stage.

Reggie Bullock joins the Mavs after a solid finish over his final 30 games with the Knicks last season.  Unless he replaces Finney-Smith as SF in the starting lineup or there’s an injury to Hardaway Jr., he should only be drafted in deeper leagues or used as a points and threes streamer in 12-teamers.  Among the other backup guards in Dallas, Jalen Brunson brings the most value as a points and assists streamer.  However, if Luka is injured for an extended stretch, he’s the one to add.

Wings: Dorian Finney-Smith solidified his role as a three-and-D wing last season.  Unfortunately, that identity doesn’t always translate into fantasy hoops value, as his defense only yielded 0.9 steals in 32 minutes per game.  It is hard to see much upside in his game, so I recommend leaving him undrafted to go after more speculative picks in the final rounds of a 12-team draft.  Plug him into your lineup for threes and rebounds if you are streaming those categories throughout the season.

Josh Green had a rough go of it in his rookie season.  The hope among the Mavs faithful is that he can find some offense this year.  However, there’s a possibility that he falls out of the rotation as a result of having a similar skill set to his more polished teammates.

Frontcourt:  Kristaps Porzingis is said to be fully healthy coming into the 2021-22 season.  There’s always load management to consider, but he proved capable of playing in back-to-backs last season.  The Mavs have a favorable schedule in this regard, with a league-fewest 12 back-to-backs over the coming campaign.  He’s currently ranked outside the top 60 in Yahoo and ESPN pre-draft room rankings.  With the “fully healthy” tag and his proven ability to finish as a top 20 player, there is justification in using a top 50 pick on Porzingis.

Dallas has a lot of centers this year, almost all of which are known quantities.  Maxi Kleber enters the season as the projected starter, but there is plenty of potential for churn in this rotation.  If, however, Kleber continues to garner more than 25 minutes per game, he is a low-end producer for threes, rebounds, and blocks.  Cauley-Stein and Powell continue to be limited due to their inability to hit threes, which is a major factor when you have a creator of Doncic’s caliber.

The wild card at center is Moses Brown, who is coming off a season in which he started 32 contests for the tanking Thunder.  For those wondering if he is worth a speculative pick in 12-team category league drafts (current rank in ESPN: 156), I do not recommend it.  He required 25 minutes per game to average 9 points, 10 rebounds, and a block over his starts, and I do not see him touching that amount of playing time this year with the traffic jam at center.  After all, the fans will still demand their eight minutes of Boban every night, so the other four centers will need to get in where they fit in.

Bottom Line: If you’re in a points league, go nuts and draft Luka in the top five.  For category leaguers, go with your head rather than your heart and pick a player in the first round who helps you in more than four areas.  Porzingis is currently underrated in pre-draft room rankings, but he’s becoming the worst-kept secret in fantasy hoops as the memory of his playoff collapse fades.  Aside from Hardaway Jr., there are no other “must draft” players on this roster for 12-team formats.  With Luka running the show, the team’s League Pass value is much higher than its fantasy value.