2020-21 San Antonio Spurs Preview

After years and years of stability in the forms of David Robinson and then Tim Duncan and co., things began to wobble in San Antonio during the baton pass to Kawhi Leonard. After the situation became untenable (and very weird), the Klaw was spun off to Toronto and the Spurs entered the brief and somewhat unsuccessful (by their own standards) LaMarcus Aldridge/DeMar DeRozan era. Now that DD is off in Chicago and LMA is in Brooklyn, what was once just a little bit shaky has become unfamiliar, if not a touch unstable. After 22 straight seasons in the playoffs, the Spurs finished below .500 and stayed home during the 2019-20 postseason. There was a flash of hope last year when San Antonio made the playoffs (well, the play-in) but were bounced by the upstart Grizzlies. 

Coming into 21-22, Gregg Popovich and Keldon Johnson return from the delayed Tokyo Olympics with gold medals around their necks, but with a thoroughly revamped roster waiting for them (Patty Mills and his 2020 bronze medal are nowhere to be found), the days of guaranteed success in San Antonio are firmly behind us. Vegas likes the Spurs for fewer than 30 wins this year — six wins behind the Kings (!) — so you’re not alone if this roster doesn’t scream “return to glory.” 

While things might be a bit gloomy for IRL hoops, the fantasy outlook in San Antonio is brighter, if only just. There are three returning Spurs on the roster who turned in top-100 seasons last year, and Thaddeus Young is rolling into town on the heels of a top-110 year in Chicago, so the cupboard isn’t exactly bare following DeMar’s departure. DD out of the picture certainly won’t make winning games easier, but it does create opportunities for fantasy goodies up and down the roster, the backcourt especially. Additionally, the arrival of oft-injured Zach Collins, the potential of a year-three breakthrough for Young Keldon, and the intrigue of Devin Vassell add a dash of upside to the bankable contributions of Dejounte Murray, Jakob Poeltl, and Derrick White. There’s intrigue here, as well as a bit of floor.

Arrivals/Departures

In: Thaddeus Young, Bryn Forbes, Doug McDermott, Al-Farouq Aminu, Zach Collins, Jock Landale, Josh Primo, Joe Wisecamp

Out: Patty Mills, DeMar Derozan, Rudy Gay, Gorgui Dieng, Trey Lyles 

I wrote earlier this preseason on what DeMar DeRozan meant to the Spurs and the kind of assist opportunity exists now that he’s hit the road. Use your clicky finger to open this in a new tab and check it out once we’re finished here. 

Depth Chart

Backcourt

Last year was the first time in Dejounte Murray’s five-year career (only four seasons actually played, as he missed 2018-19 with an ACL tear) that he averaged more than 30 MPG, which predictably yielded his best statistical season as a pro. Murray was good for 16 or so PPG with nice complementary numbers in assists (5.4), rebounds (7.1), and steals (1.5), though the blocks and triples were invisible and translucent, respectively. The shooting works from everywhere but deep  — 45.3/31.7/79.1 — and digging into his shot profile reveals a guy who neither gets all the way to the cup (only 19.3% of his attempts came within three feet from the basket) nor a chucker from deep (20.4% of Murray’s total attempts last year were triples.) Murray’s most frequent shot (26.6%) came from 10-16 feet, where he was basically better than everyone not named Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony, or LaMarcus Aldridge. He’s hitting the least valuable shot at a 45% clip, which is encouraging in a way. The midrange is a look the league will give you, so at least he’s effective at converting the shot the defense wants you to take.  

Despite the scoring limitations, Dejounte still turned in sixth-round value in the nine-cat game last year, putting him ahead of De’Aaron Fox, LaMelo Ball, Devin Booker, and Russell Westbrook in per-game value. I’ll be curious to see what Murray looks like as an offensive focal point this year, as there is plenty of usage to go around with DeMar out of town. If Dejounte is able to edit out the midrange a bit and get closer to the cup (where he shot a career-high 64.9% last year), there could be a leap here. If the three-point shooting also creeps closer to league average, it could be a sizable one. DeRozan’s departure clears a path, which makes for an enticing opportunity. He’s a guy I could see myself betting on. 

Derrick White also stands to gain from DD’s absence, though the ways he’ll contribute are markedly different from Murray. Dejounte is a value add in steals, while Derrick contributes excellent blocks (1.0) from the guard position. Murray’s a negative free-throw contributor, while White (85.1% FT last year) is an asset. And while Murray was working the midrange, White’s shot diet tilted 3-heavy (53.6%) for the first time in his career. The commitment to long-range shooting wasn’t all roses for White though, as his 3P% actually dropped from 36.6% to 34.6% on more than twice as many attempts (3.2 to 6.8 3PA). Injuries factored into White’s season too, as he coped with a broken toe, health and safety protocols, and an ankle sprain that limited him to 36 games. Despite this, White’s enjoyed a career-high usage rate (22.4%) and was able to land just inside the top 100 on a per-game basis. With the rock in his hands more often, there’s reason for optimism that a full year of good health and expanded usage will drive that number even higher. Both White and Murray are worth targeting in the middle rounds, though the type of build you’re pursuing will inform the relative value of each player. 

Lonnie Walker IV was a big piece off the bench for the Spurs last year and was able to take advantage of White’s injuries to the tune of 38 starts. A spark-plug and willing shooter, Walker’s main contribution comes in the form of points (11.2) and triples (1.7), though there’s really not much else there. Despite seeing his minutes push above 25 MPG last year, there was almost no growth in any of his non-scoring numbers (2.6 REB, 1.7 AST, 0.5 STL, 0.3 BLK) from when he was playing 15 minutes a night. He’s still young, just 22 years old, but it’s hard to see a leap into standard-league consideration. 

Bryn Forbes is back in town, but unless you have a shersy of his from his last go-around in San Antonio there really isn’t too much to be excited about. Forbes’ contributions are limited to three-point shooting, and with a career FGA at 7.5, even that isn’t so spectacular. Almost two-thirds of his attempts are from deep, and he offers 2.0 or worse in assists, rebounds, blocks, or steals. Pass. 

There’s plenty of long-term appeal for both Tre Jones and Josh Primo (who was the youngest player selected in the 2021 Draft). Primo poured in 17 points (and almost nothing else) in 17 minutes during his first preseason game, and developing him should be a priority. Given his age and the rest of the roster, I would think a G-League stint would make sense rather than 15 MPG with the big club. Remember his name for the silly season though, especially if things go as badly as Vegas is predicting.  

Wings and Forwards

At age 29, Doug McDermott comes into San Antonio fresh off his best season as a pro in Indiana where he tallied 13.3 PPG, 3.3 REB, 1.3 AST, 0.3 STL, and 0.1 BLK, good enough to earn him the…186th best player on per-game basis according to Basketball Monster. The 20-21 season was McDermott’s first in the top 200. Needless to say, just because San Antonio is shelling out for McBuckets (three years/$42M) doesn’t mean he needs to be on your roster.

I would be feeling much better about Devin Vassell this year if Dougie weren’t here, frankly. The second-year pro out of FSU saw limited action last year (17 MPG across 62 games and 7 starts), but he showed enough in the steals department (0.7) to pique my interest. There’s a lot to like with the per-36 numbers — 11.6 PTS, 5.9 REB, 1.9 AST, and 2+ stocks — but it’s hard to see him getting that much burn to make him worth it on draft day. In standard leagues, I’m throwing him on the watch list at the beginning of the season and keeping an eye on the minutes. If things go south and the youth movement goes into effect in San Antonio, Vassell could be a factor.

There could be an interesting push/pull going on between young and old, as Keldon Johnson had streaks of pretty good basketball (read: scoring and rebounding) before fading in the second half and Thadgic Johnson — with his 4.3 assists per game — are both worthy of time at the forward. My understanding is that Pop loves Young Keldon — his presence on Pop’s 2020 Olympic team speaks to this — but there’s a conversation in fantasy circles about what, other than scoring, he excels at. There’s nothing wrong with 12.8 points and 6 boards a game as a 21-year-old, but the stocks are extremely light (0.9 steals+blocks), the dimes aren’t much better (1.8), and the three is still a work in progress. Maybe he’s the next guy for the Spurs, but there might be some helium here as a fantasy asset this season.

On the other hand, if he sticks around long enough to play, I could be interested in Young. Here’s what I wrote a few weeks back, “Enter Thaddeus Young, who could step into DeRozan’s role as a playmaker in the frontcourt. Thad finished the season just outside the top 100 on a per-game basis, improving on his 144 finish the season prior. There were stretches when Thad and Tomas Satoransky (and decidedly not Coby White) were the focal points of the Bulls offense that sputtered outside of Zach LaVine. Young was no slouch when it came to slinging the ball around (4.3 dimes per, 25.3 assist percentage), so if there’s a wet blanket on dimes for the guards, it’s the 33-year-old ex-Chicagoan. It’s not a sexy pick — really none of these Spurs are outside of Murray — but Thaddeus has turned in top 100-ish production in four out of the last five seasons. Don’t expect him to turn into a pumpkin under Popovich.” And that’s me quoting me! (And kind of Grey.) If he sticks around is a big caveat. Thaddeus was part of the package back to San Antonio in the DeRozan deal and the 33-year-old has one year remaining on his contract. He didn’t play in the first preseason game for San Antonio and his talents would be much more valuable to a contender. Where he ends up (or doesn’t) will have a big impact on his value. 

Big Guys

Let’s just get this out of the way at the top — Jakob Poeltl is a horrific free-throw shooter. There was a season that he couldn’t clear 47% from the stripe. It is a significant wart on an otherwise totally serviceable big. Looking past it though, we see that Poeltl is a totally serviceable big despite the free-throw horror show. A glass eater who rarely scores more than 12 (and scores fewer than 10 with regularity), if you’re in need of boards (7.9), swats (1.8!!!), or FG% (61.6%) after going guard-heavy at the top of your draft, Jake Puddle could be an extremely useful guy. Even the FT% goes down a bit easier when you realize he shoots fewer than two a game.

Drew Eubanks is lined up to be the backup five and he provides the typical offerings of a second-string big — boards, blocks, and FG%, though he does also chip in respectable FT% too. Zach Collins has never seen enough minutes or enjoyed enough health to put together a fantasy-relevant season. The most recent update I saw had a quote from Pop saying that he wouldn’t be game-ready until “after Christmas” at the earliest. Jock Landale picks up the mantle of Saint Mary’s Aussie playing for the Spurs from Patty Mills and arrives in Texas after professional seasons in Serbia, Lithuania, and Australia. He was teammates with Mills on the bronze medal Australia team and put up solid numbers there, 12.8 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.2 assists. Regardless, there’s not a ton of interest in Jakob Poeltl’s backups at this point.