Auction drafts are chess, snake drafts are checkers!  Pretty sure Denzel in Training Day agrees!

Nothing beats a good auction draft.  Yes, they can be long, hard, and full of Kaman, but they also ensure you can get players you like as long as you’re willing to pony up the dough.  Luckily this year has more parity across the first round, and you can spread your bets accordingly.  Pre-Kevin Durant injury last year, it was back-to-back seasons of paying a ridiculous premium for the Slim Reaper since he was safe (ugh, I guess not really!) and so much better than the field.  Now there’s a case to be made for any of the big 3 as #1 overall, I’ve heard KD even enter the discussion that high, some like DeMarcus Cousins over some of the PG, some don’t like John Wall as a first-rounder, etc. etc. etc.  So while I do like the stars-and-scrubs philosophy, I don’t think I have to overpay too much unlike the past two seasons where I had KD in the high-$90s.  However, I will note there’s a steep dropoff for me outside the top-10.  And you’ll notice a bevy of guys at $1-$2.  I’ll go in hoping to get two elites, a few mids, and a lot of dollar guys where I see value.

A big luxury of auction drafts is it’s much easier to maintain a team strategy.  I don’t love punting in snakes, as guys that fit your build can be picked before you.  But in an auction, you can build more efficiently and accurately.  You can also punt positions – I would be all for getting two elite PG and having 3-4 $1-$2 high-upside bigs and hope I hit on one or two to flank some mid-range guys.

And one obligatory final note – I know I am high on Andrew Wiggins this year, so obviously if he hits $23 with only one team left bidding, don’t suddenly climb it with one bid from $23 to $39 willy-nilly!  These suggested auction values are a framework for my ranks, and the price I’d go if drafting with 11 other mes.  Ugh, horrifying, it’d be like having an auction draft in the “Malkovich, Malkovich, Malkovich!” scene!

Values are based on Yahoo standard line-ups (PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, C, C, UTIL, UTIL, BN, BN, BN) and 12-team leagues (RCL size – and we need more leagues!  Commish one now!) with a $200 budget:

Razzball Basketball 2015-2016 Fantasy Basketball Auction Rankings

$83 Anthony Davis, NO PF, C Fantasy’s unquestioned per-game titan, fantasy rightfully questions the durability.  He’s going to add in a few deep balls and Gentry wants him to have even more O touches.  Viva El Brow!
Slim’s Projection: .515/.810/0.2/26.0/10.5/2.4/1.4/3.0/1.6 :36
$81 James Harden, HOU SG, SF Very close to Brow for #1, very – and I mean very – minimal knock with Lawson stealing some usage whenever they play together. Brow still has a tad of upside after last year, I don’t know if Harden can go up much higher.
Slim’s Projection: .445/.870/2.5/27.5/5.5/6.6/1.8/0.6/3.8 :36
$80 Stephen Curry, GSW PG, SG I have a feeling he’s going to be a consensus 1 or 2 – still very close between these top 3 – but there’s some concern to the minutes as Golden State blows the scrubbos out.
Slim’s Projection: .480/.900/3.5/24.5/4.3/7.8/1.9/0.2/3.3 :34
$79 Kevin Durant, OKC SF, PF Upside for a return to fantasy’s top player, downside his foot issue hampers yet another season.  I’m obviously closer to the former, but he doesn’t get into the top-3.
Slim’s Projection: .500/.880/2.3/28.0/6.8/4.4/1.1/0.8/3.0 :34
$77 LeBron James, CLE SF, PF A horrific start turning it over in Cleveland, LeBron also had a steep drop in FG%.  Both should imrpove, but he also has lost the blocks.  Solid #5.
Slim’s Projection: .505/.740/1.6/24.0/6.2/7.2/1.5/0.6/3.5 :36
$71 Chris Paul, LAC PG CP3 is equally as locked into #6 for me.  Obvious awesome dimes, low TO, nothing is unreaptable.
Slim’s Projection: .480/.880/1.6/18.0/4.3/10.5/2.0/0.1/2.3 :34
$70 Damian Lillard, POR PG Time to start getting saucy with it!  With one of the most horrific starting 2-5 runing mates a PG has ever had in the history of the NBA (well, maybe the Sixers at times last year!). the Blazers are going to tell Lillard to try and put up MVP numbers in a tank season.  Monster points/treys, a good bit of dimes, the steals have become respectable, but it’ll cost a high-volume FG% and a few too many TO.  The upside is too big to pass here.
Slim’s Projection: .425/.860/2.7/26.0/4.6/7.5/1.2/0.3/3.0 :36
$67 Russell Westbrook, OKC PG Westbrook’s 2nd half was one of the most unreal post-ASB runs we’ve ever seen, but obviously with Durant back, those unreal dimes and a good chunk of shots are going away.  Up a few spots in 8-cat, that’s for sure!
Slim’s Projection: .440/.820/1.2/23.0/6.3/7.5/2.0/0.3/3.9 :34
$65 John Wall, WAS PG Regression in the developing 3-pt game hurt, and high-TO originally had me keeping him outside the top-10, but now flipping him ahead of Klay, Boogie and Kawhi due to thinning of top-tier PG
Slim’s Projection: .440/.800/1.0/19.5/4.5/10.6/1.8/0.6/3.7 :36
$65 DeMarcus Cousins, SAC PF, C These last 3 are all razor thin, but Boogie takes a huge hit on your TO, and that’s without your team having a PG. That said, he was playing some of his best ball in the 2nd half last year. Now has Rondo to facilitate without stealing shots, along with Willie Cauley-Stein to take some defensive pressure off.
Slim’s Projection: .475/.770/0/25.0/12.5/3.2/1.5/1.7/4.0 :34
$57 Rudy Gobert, UTA C Monsieur Elbow!  Steiffel Tower!  The Big French Nickname!  Going to provide crazy big man stats, with an acceptable FT%.  Way above the true “FT-punt” bigs.  If I’m missing the top-10, I feel dirty not having a top-end big or PG, and Rudy is my favorite of those positions.  I’ll reach.
Slim’s Projection: .585/.650/0/12.0/12.5/1.8/1.0/2.9/1.8 :34
$52 Klay Thompson, GSW SG, SF Proliferation of defensive stats and crazy %s for how many treys he takes, Klay has shed the ThrAGNOF label and shit on it.
Slim’s Projection: .450/.880/2.9/20.0/3.3/2.9/1.0/0.6/1.9 :34
$50 Draymond Green, GSW SF, PF Woooooo, #OccupyDraymondGreen!  Don’t worry about any sort of sharp regression, the multi-cat is here to stay!
Slim’s Projection: .455/.680/1.6/13.0/8.4/4.0/1.7/1.3/1.7 :34
$50 Paul Millsap, ATL PF, C Under appreciated for three seasons now, he should see another small step forward in the perimeter game with DeMarre Carroll out of town. Tough playoff schedule is a concern.
Slim’s Projection: .475/.755/1.2/18.0/8.0/3.2/1.8/1.0/2.3 :34
$49 Jimmy Butler, CHI SG, SF Sure there’s injury concerns, but with Tibs gone, his ridiculous minutes should go down.  Rose will take a little volume, help with efficiency.  Love the strong game with low-TO.
Slim’s Projection: .455/.825/1.0/18.5/5.6/3.1/1.8/0.5/1.4 :36
$49 Kawhi Leonard, SA SG, SF With LA in town, Kawhi is going to get more shots from deep, wider lanes to drive, and get a career-best in dimes.  Pop’s annoying rotations/minutes is all that stands in the way of a superstar season.  That is, except the scheduling committee giving the Spurs that awful playoff sched…  Smh…
Slim’s Projection: .480/.810/1.3/15.5/6.4/2.8/2.4/0.8/1.6 :34
$47 Serge Ibaka, OKC PF, C Blocks have fallen 4 straight years from 3.7 to 2.4, I don’t know how many treys he takes with Enes Kanter taking so many mid-range opportunities and Durant back. Swats should improve a tad, FG% certainly to go up from last year.
Slim’s Projection: .515/.810/0.7/15.0/8.0/0.9/0.5/2.7/1.5 :32
$47 Eric Bledsoe, PHX PG, SG Swinging for the fences, Bledsoe is by far my favorite of the mid-round PG and has his best G running mate in Knight replacing Dragic/IT2.  Will need some monster stats and a slight relief in TO for this to happen…  But the dramatic drop off of PG has him even more attractive as an early target, plus Markieff Morris’s drama could mean even more shots.
Slim’s Projection: .450/.785/1.1/17.5/5.3/6.5/1.5/0.6/3.5 :36
$42 Blake Griffin, LAC PF, C Nothing seems unrepeatable from last year, love the emerging dimes and improving FT stroke.  But the same thought as with Gobert, I want the elite bigs or a PG before this spot.
Slim’s Projection: .505/.740/0.3/22.5/7.9/5.3/1.0/0.5/2.3 :36
$40 Paul George, IND SG, SF Even in his best season, he wasn’t a first-round fantasy value.  I was wrong!  He was 11th in total value in 13-14, I apologize to Mr. Green, the commenters, to the George family, to the world.  While I don’t see quite an 11th finish again, I do expect a very strong return; although poor FG% and TO for a wing do have to be addressed with your team build.
Slim’s Projection: .420/.820/2.1/19.5/7.4/3.2/1.7/0.3/2.8 :34
$39 Andrew Wiggins, MIN SG, SF Clear upside to have a superstar fantasy season, his post-ASB FT volume was insane.  I see monster scoring with a solid FG%, along with baby steps in the D stats.
Slim’s Projection: .450/.790/0.8/21.0/5.2/2.9/1.2/0.8/2.4 :38
$38 Carmelo Anthony, NYK SF, PF Only 30th in per-game last year, sure injuries factored in, but I don’t think there’s enough reliability here to draft him higher.
Slim’s Projection: .445/.820/1.7/23.0/6.4/3.2/0.9/0.4/2.4 :36
$35 Andre Drummond, DET PF, C Obviously a full-blown punt-FT big, as we move through the ranks I’m treating each pick as a “best pick in a vacuum”.  Upside for monster post stats with no Monroe.
Slim’s Projection: .530/.380/0/16.0/13.5/1.2/0.9/2.0/1.6 :32
$34 Pau Gasol, CHI PF, C Of course he’s very unlikely to replicate 14-15, but he was 13th in per-game/7th in overall value.  This rank already builds in some regression, and he should have the minutes scaled down a tad with no Tibs to hopefully keep him healthy.
Slim’s Projection: .480/.780/0.1/17.0/9.8/2.8/0.3/1.5/1.9 :32
$32 Al Horford, ATL PF, C Going to be very overlooked in 15-16, gives great value in high-volume FG% and microscopic TO that many drafters ignore for bigger counting stats.  MPG risk with some blowouts likely sink his value a tad.
Slim’s Projection: .540/.740/0.2/16.0/7.5/3.3/0.9/1.4/1.5 :32
$32 Marc Gasol, MEM C Gasol brothers razor close – would take Pau for boards, Marc for a little more help in out-of-position dimes.
Slim’s Projection: .490/.785/0/17.0/7.8/3.8/0.8/1.6/2.1 :34
$31 Nikola Vucevic, ORL PF, C Some look at his low steals and blocks for a big and dismiss him, but was 22nd in per-game last year due to high-volume FG% and a good FT% for a big,  Fits a lot of builds earlier than you would think.
Slim’s Projection: .510/.745/0/20.0/10.5/2.1/0.8/0.7/2.0 :34
$29 Gordon Hayward, UTA SG, SF Dante Exum has a torn ACL and the Jazz only have Trey Burke to play PG.  Not much of a change to the slight concern over Hayward’s 5.2:2.8 AST:TO ratio dropping to 4.1:2.7 last year, but Hayward is looking up a tad with no Exum.  Hayward has improved every year.
Slim’s Projection: .450/.820/1.6/20.5/4.7/4.4/1.4/0.5/2.7 :34
$28 Hassan Whiteside, MIA C The bad FT% doesn’t hurt as much as the pure-FT punt guys, shocking 34th in per-game value only starting 32 of 48 games.
Slim’s Projection: .610/.510/0/12.5/10.5/0.2/0.5/2.4/1.5 :28
$26 Rudy Gay, SAC SF, PF I imagine I’ll have several shares of Gay stock with this rank, as his inherent boring-ness is going to be overlooked. Career year in 14-15, big boost in AST, should see another boatload of O with Rondo not doing much shooting.
Slim’s Projection: .450/.825/1.1/19.5/5.6/3.1/1.1/0.7/2.2 :34
$25 DeAndre Jordan, LAC C If you’re already FT-punting you don’t care, but 5.7 FT attempted a game is outrageous.  Going to go way, way up as the NBA didn’t change the rules.  Although, you should care a little bit even in FT-punt as it’s so bad for real basketball his minutes are likely going to drop.
Slim’s Projection: .690/.410/0/12.0/14.0/0.8/1.0/2.2/1.3 :34
$24 Chris Bosh, MIA PF, C A little risk as he comes off a major health scare, should score a ton of points and keep hitting treys to help his Stl+Blk going down.
Slim’s Projection: .470/.785/1.3/20.0/6.7/2.2/0.8/0.7/2.1 :34
$23 Jeff Teague, ATL PG Only played 30:31 MPG as he has one of the best backup PG behind him to clean up blowout minutes.  I don’t see that changing much.
Slim’s Projection: .455/.850/1.1/17.5/2.5/6.9/1.7/0.4/2.9 :32
$23 Kyle Lowry, TOR PG Litany of injuries through his career, tried to gut through a hand issue last year and FG% dropped to 37.3% and dimes down to 5.4.  Tension with coach Dwane Casey isn’t helping.
Slim’s Projection: .415/.810/2.0/18.0/4.7/6.4/1.4/0.2/2.4 :34
$23 Derrick Favors, UTA PF, C FG% dropped after Kanter was dealt, will be playing a more mid-range game. Low FT% and blocks not developing into an elite stat keep him a little lower than Slim would like.
Slim’s Projection: .510/.690/0/17.0/8.4/1.5/0.9/1.8/1.8 :32
$21 LaMarcus Aldridge, SA PF, C Huge hit going to the Spurs – lower minutes, fewer shots, I don’t think we see an expanded 3PTM game…  I’m not risking any higher.
Slim’s Projection: .470/.835/0.4/18.5/9.2/2.1/0.7/1.0/1.5 :32
$21 Kevin Love, CLE PF, C Shockingly was 33rd in per-game stats even though he was horrific, and FG%/Pts should rise a tad.  Injury risk/minutes limit early/the fact I don’t really want Love on any teams keep him this low.
Slim’s Projection: .445/.810/2.2/18.0/10.2/2.4/0.7/0.5/1.7 :34
$21 Goran Dragic, MIA PG, SG A full offseason to gel with the Heat, got more dimes in Miami, nice out-of-position FG% help a well-rounded PG game.
Slim’s Projection: .500/.790/1.0/17.0/3.5/5.5/1.1/0.2/2.2 :34
$20 Nerlens Noel, PHI PF, C From Jan 7 to the final 3 games – 42 game stretch of 11.8/9.0/1.7/2.0/2.3 at 49.7% FG.  If there was no Okafor clogging the paint, would be even higher.
Slim’s Projection: .475/.635/0/11.5/8.8/2.0/1.9/2.0/1.9 :32
$19 Reggie Jackson, DET PG, SG I’m suspecting he could be a buzzy draft pick a few spots higher (edit – Yahoo pre-ranks have him 102 – what the hey?!), but his popcorn trip-dub stats get a little overvalued as he is low in 3s and steals with fairly high TO.
Slim’s Projection: .440/.830/1.1/17.5/4.5/8.6/1.0/0.2/3.2 :34
$19 Elfrid Payton, ORL PG Final 21:12.4/5.6/8.7/2.4/0.5 with only 2.8 TO and 44.8% FG 58.8% FT.  Even with more touches in that stretch, only 1.9-3.2 FT a game.  Sure he doesn’t hit many treys either, but he can fit a lot of teams in this range.
Slim’s Projection: .440/.575/0.4/11.5/4.8/8.5/2.1/0.4/2.7 :34
$18 Al Jefferson, CHA PF, C Fell down to 48th in per-game stats, but a lot had to do with missing 5 MPG with some easing in off injury mixed in there.  Still was able to maintain the blocks, and has a better playmaker in Batum on the wing.  Should have a nice bounce back, health concern keeps him from going higher.
Slim’s Projection: .485/.680/0/17.5/8.6/1.7/0.7/1.3/1.2 :32
$18 Kemba Walker, CHA PG Cut the TO to a ridiculously low 1.6 a game, sure it should go back up a tad with a few more minutes, but with the dimes and treys he chips in, can go unloved.  Needs to shoot better than last year (38.5%).
Slim’s Projection: .400/.830/1.5/18.5/3.7/5.4/1.4/0.5/2.0 :36
$18 Victor Oladipo, ORL PG, SG Took some convincing from Slim to get him top-50, but should play a ton of minutes and contribute in a lot of areas.  I wish he had a few less TO and wasn’t more a pure-SG, plus I think he’ll be overdrafted with some buzz.  Not a great deep shooter at the eye level (33.9% out there last year even seems high).
Slim’s Projection: .440/.820/1.3/19.0/4.3/4.3/1.8/0.4/2.8 :36
$17 Monta Ellis, IND PG, SG Consistency in both stats and staying healthy, his steals can very often be overlooked.
Slim’s Projection: .450/.765/1.1/18.5/2.8/4.2/1.7/0.3/2.6 :34
$17 Ricky Rubio, MIN PG This is the last time, Ricky!  Still only 24, I could see some dynamite games with the dimes as he leads an explosive offense with great steals.  Just needs to stay healthy… Gasp…  Rubio… Healthy…
Slim’s Projection: .380/.800/0.7/10.5/4.6/8.9/1.9/0.1/3.0 :32
$16 Greg Monroe, MIL PF, C Lack of blocks hurt, but has the whole post to himself for the first time in a while, and finally started making FT at 75% last year.  Should improve in FG% from last year as well.
Slim’s Projection: .505/.745/0/18.0/10.5/2.3/1.2/0.6/2.3 :34
$16 Isaiah Thomas, BOS PG There are murmurs that IT2/3 could start, which would make him a really interesting upside selection.  A name that could move quickly through early preseason, either up or down.
Slim’s Projection: .425/.860/2.1/17.5/2.2/4.8/0.8/0.1/2.4 :28
$16 Danilo Gallinari, DEN SF Probably my #1 sleeper this year, post-ASB 18.6/4.8/1.9/1.3/0.5 shooting 44.3% from the field, making 2.8 treys, hitting 3.8 FT at 89.1%, and only turning it over 1.3 per.  Still only 27, got the big extension to be “the guy”, and there will be less shots from the PG with Mudiay taking over for Lawson.  Upside to be a dynamic all-cat contributor.
Slim’s Projection: .415/.870/2.2/16.5/4.9/2.1/0.9/0.5/1.5 :32
$16 Terrence Jones, HOU SF, PF 68th in per-game last year, starting only 24 of 33 games.  As a starter – 13.5/7.6/1.1/0.6/1.8 while shooting 55%, making 0.5 treys, and only 1.3 TO in 29 MPG. Only knock is FT%, but volume is low.  So much upside here.
Slim’s Projection: .515/.625/0.7/13.5/7.8/1.3/0.7/1.7/1.4 :30
$14 Kyrie Irving, CLE PG, SG Recovery from the broken kneecap moving very slow, reports had surfaced he could be out until January, but they seem to be refuted now.  Either way, it seems unlikely he’s playing for the first few weeks at the least, with a very tight minutes restriction once he is back.  And even when he does finally suit up, Mo Williams gives the Cavs a much better backup PG to limit Kyrie’s minutes to ease him in.
Slim’s Projection: .465/.865/1.9/20.5/3.2/5.3/1.5/0.3/2.4 :34
$14 Trevor Ariza, HOU SG, SF Shot 37% from the field for a little over half of 13-14, but turned it around and adds elite-wing steals to a low-TO game.  A little boring, but solid.
Slim’s Projection: .415/.820/2.3/13.0/5.9/2.7/1.8/0.3/1.7 :36
$14 Mike Conley, MEM PG I didn’t realize I was going to be the anti-Conley guy, but the downward trends are enough for me to avoid.  Steals going down, dimes down, starting to miss games… Not buying the “playing for a contract” bounce back narrative.
Slim’s Projection: .445/.830/1.5/16.0/3.0/5.9/1.4/0.2/2.2 :34
$14 Tobias Harris, ORL SF, PF True multi-cat contributor, maybe his best asset is the easy-to-find points, but hits all cats with low TO.  Plays a ton of minutes as well.  Just has to keep the ankles taped up.
Slim’s Projection: .465/.800/1.3/17.0/6.2/1.6/1.0/0.6/1.5 :34
$14 Kenneth Faried, DEN PF, C New regime seems to like him, improved the steals and blocks over the second half, and I think we finally see a high MPG for the Manimal.  Manimal unleashed!
Slim’s Projection: .500/.705/0/15.0/9.7/1.2/1.2/1.1/1.9 :30
$13 Danny Green, SAS SG, SF Shots/3s to go down, I don’t trust a big minutes increase, and has stretches of invisibility.  It’s his super power!  23rd per-game last year seems mighty unrepeatable with Aldridge.
Slim’s Projection: .440/.840/2.1/11.0/4.4/2.1/1.2/1.0/1.1 :30
$13 Brook Lopez, BKN C 24th in per-game, played an amazing second half, but the obvious injury risk doesn’t justify a higher pick.
Slim’s Projection: .510/.810/0/17.5/7.2/0.8/0.5/1.6/1.7 :30
$12 Jordan Clarkson, LAL PG 15.8/4.2/5.0/1.1/0.2 with 0.9 treys and 84% from the stripe as a starter – but love the mere 2.2 TO leading a horrible team.  I don’t think Russell becomes the main facilitator, Clarkson to give a solid multi-cat line.  He’s really the only Laker that gets an impact from the bad playoff schedule, since I have all the others ranked much lower and not relying on them.  Plus he’s pre-ranked horrifically everywhere; I don’t need to overreach.
Slim’s Projection: .450/.825/1.0/15.5/4.3/5.1/1.1/0.2/2.1 :32
$12 Brandon Knight, PHX PG, SG Dropped the TO in PHX, cranked a ton of treys, and while the FG% in his brief stint for the Suns was awful, I think he can gel well with Bledsoe.  Markieff possibly forcing a trade gives some upside.
Slim’s Projection: .420/.830/2.0/16.0/3.0/4.7/1.2/0.1/2.2 :32
$12 Nicolas Batum, CHA SG, SF Horrible shooting pre-ASB, finally found his stroke for 45% post-ASB, and Hornets need another perimeter guy and facilitator.  Should be OK, low upside.
Slim’s Projection: .430/.840/1.6/11.5/5.9/4.8/1.0/0.6/2.0 :34
$12 Myles Turner, IND C Really thin big man rotation, he fits an up-tempo style of play, and blocks will no question translate right away.  Also can hit 3s, board, and make his FT – all with low TO.  Just needs the run, Bird, you said it would happen – you better be a man of your word!
Slim’s Projection: .465/.785/0.4/11.5/7.5/0.5/0.5/1.8/1.5 :26
$11 Chandler Parsons, DAL SF, PF Primed for a bigger role in the O, but he’s off arthroscopic knee surgery and has had lingering back issues. Even at this high feels a little risky, but there’s enough upside.  However, just came out he had a “minor hybrid” microfracture surgery on his knee with added bone marrow to try and regrow cartilage… it’s just all sorta giving me the heebie jeebies. Won’t be ready for camp, and might miss the first few games at this point… At the least…
Slim’s Projection: .470/.735/2.1/16.5/5.3/3.4/1.2/0.4/1.9 :36
$11 Khris Middleton, MIL SG, SF 34th in total value last year, after only playing 23 MPG through the first 27 games.  Bucks need O, they need treys, and Jabari will be filtered in slowly.  But as the season wears on, Jabari will work into minutes and they’ll shake-up Giannis at different positions, so could be a 2nd half sell-high.
Slim’s Projection: .455/.860/1.4/13.5/4.3/2.8/1.5/0.1/1.6 :32
$11 DeMarre Carroll, TOR SF, PF Limited upside over last year for a few more shots and a few more treys, steals and blocks from the wing should translate.
Slim’s Projection: .470/.730/1.9/13.5/5.9/1.8/1.5/0.3/1.2 :34
$10 Dwyane Wade, MIA PG, SG Hopefully this prices me out, but when he’s healthy he should be a top-50 player.  Do I even need to mention why he’s lower then…?
Slim’s Projection: .475/.770/0.4/20.5/3.4/4.1/1.1/0.3/3.0 :32
$10 George Hill, IND PG, SG After easing in, Hill was playing at a career-best level in the second half last year.  But now George is back, Monta is brought in, no way we see those post-ASB numbers this year.
Slim’s Projection: .455/.800/1.6/15.0/3.8/4.6/1.0/0.3/1.7 :32
$10 Robert Covington, PHI SG, SF In 49 starts last year, 15.2/5.0/1.7/1.6/0.6 with 2.7 treys.  FG% is an issue with how many deep balls he shoots, but should start all year as the starting 3.  Locked in a starting job and on virtually any other team, he’d be higher.  Some Philly risk here since you never know what these schlubs will do.
Slim’s Projection: .405/.820/2.5/15.0/4.7/1.8/1.4/0.6/2.2 :32
$10 Deron Williams, DAL PG Showed in starts last year he can still be usable, although his FG% was sub-40%.  55 starts at 32:53 MPG have me thinking he could hold up most of the year on those kankles.  Kyrie’s injury shed a little more light on a really thin PG draft class this year.
Slim’s Projection: .415/.820/1.5/14.5/3.4/6.8/0.9/0.2/2.6 :32
$10 Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL SF, PF Athleticism and highlight-real Inspector Gadget plays seem to make him a tad overrated; treys didn’t develop last year, sub-2 STL+BLK, and 2.1 TO from a wing without doing much else isn’t worth a higher pick to me.  If he didn’t have any upside as a 20-year-old, he’d be even lower.  Upside is already baked in the baklava, and I’m giving in to some consensus pressure here, was nice to see him hitting treys in FIBA.
Slim’s Projection: .480/.755/0.3/13.5/6.6/2.9/1.1/1.2/2.1 :32
$10 Tyreke Evans, NO PG, SG Can still be useful when Jrue is healthy, popcorn stats are pretty – high TO, low treys, and a scary FT% last year not so much… Jrue’s incredibly terrible hit with how Nawleans plans on using him benefits the Reke.
Slim’s Projection: .440/.745/0.7/16.5/5.2/6.0/1.2/0.5/2.9 :34
$9 Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN C Only 21.1 MPG in 39 college games, I’m a little worried about the proverbial rookie wall and the stable of bigs Flip will run through.  Long-term upside is massive, I don’t think we more than scratch the surface in this rookie year. Bennett waived and Pek hurt doesn’t change much for me.
Slim’s Projection: .480/.790/0.3/12.0/8.0/1.0/0.7/1.8/1.5 :26
$9 Tim Duncan, SA PF, C The falling off a cliff hasn’t happened yet, even though everyone has predicted it the past 5 years.  21st in per-game last year, Aldridge and missed games drop him to this point, plus with already with the worst coach for fantasy, now the Spurs have one of the worst playoff schedules.  Pass.
Slim’s Projection: .505/.735/0/12.5/8.9/2.8/0.6/1.7/1.5 :28
$8 Derrick Rose, CHI PG There’s no way I could feel good having Rose on my teams.  Even in his MVP season he wasn’t a fantasy elite, and still projects to have way too many TO and microscopic steals.  Pass.  Broken face shouldn’t impact opening day.
Slim’s Projection: .420/.820/1.5/18.0/3.3/5.4/0.7/0.3/3.3 :30
$8 Tyson Chandler, PHX C I get the boring-ness, but he’s consistent and I think has a smidge of upside on the high-tempo Suns.  Especially if there’s no Kieff…
Slim’s Projection: .630/.710/0/10.0/10.5/1.0/0.5/1.1/1.3 :30
$8 Marcin Gortat, WAS C Extremely odd he was 12th in per-game in the second half last year.  12th!  High FG%, started filtering in steals, and the Wiz don’t have any good centers.  I don’t think he gets Valanciunas-ed, and blocks haven’t really trended down in per-36 the past 6 years.  Just needs the run.
Slim’s Projection: .555/.695/0/12.5/8.9/1.2/0.6/1.2/1.2 :30
$8 Gorgui Dieng, MIN PF, C As a starter – 10.8/8.8/2.3/1.1/2.0 hitting 50.8% from the field and 78.1% from the line last year.  But like Towns, the stable of big men is a huge concern, and he only played 28:43 MPG pre-ASB last year.  Even with Pek hurt and Bennett gone, I’m not seeing a huge minutes bump.
Slim’s Projection: .510/.770/0/10.0/8.3/2.1/0.9/1.7/1.7 :28
$8 Jonas Valanciunas, TOR C “Valanciunas-ed” is now a term for a player who goes off in the first half only to get limited run in the 2nd, and with the Casey regime still in power, they plan on sitting him late again – even with a newly signed extension.  Per-36s are awesome, if only his per-26s could be the same… We all know he can play, and if everyone knows that then maybe the Raptors will eventually know it…
Slim’s Projection: .550/.790/0/12.5/8.9/0.6/0.4/1.2/1.7 :28
$7 Bradley Beal, WAS SG This rank is likely well below ADP, but Beal regressed in several areas last year – mainly in Pts and AST:TO.  Injury concerns with his legs also sink him a bit.
Slim’s Projection: .430/.795/1.9/17.5/3.9/3.6/1.3/0.3/2.1 :36
$7 Alec Burks, UTA PG, SG Exum injury opens up a huge gap at PG, as Burks should see starting SG minutes and backup PG minutes.  There’s upside in steals as the Jazz are a defensive juggernaut, and a healthy shoulder could translate into a lot more treys.
Slim’s Projection: .435/.785/1.2/16.5/4.3/3.2/1.0/0.2/2.0 :34
$7 Markieff Morris, PHX PF, C I had him 62 in the initial rankings post, internal strife with the Suns is really making him a scary pick, especially with a limited number of teams he could go to and produce a similar stat line to 14-15.
Slim’s Projection: .470/.770/0.8/16.0/6.3/2.5/1.2/0.5/2.1 :32
$7 Robin Lopez, NYK C HE’S AWFUL AT BASKETBALL!  That’s all the blurb he gets.
Slim’s Projection: .540/.780/0/11.5/8.7/1.1/0.3/1.6/1.2 :32
$6 Ty Lawson, HOU PG If he slides this far, I think there’s value.  Main risk is yet another off-the-court incident, but here’s to hoping he can turn his life around.  Should get at least a little run with Harden and the starters, then all the 2nd unit mins.
Slim’s Projection: .440/.770/1.0/13.5/2.6/6.1/1.0/0.1/1.9 :28
$6 DeMar DeRozan, TOR SG, SF Pts is still a category, which is fortunate for DeRozan since he doesn’t do much else.  AST:TO regressed, treys regressed, but maybe some of that had to do with the bad groin injury.  Still worth a fringe top-100 selection.
Slim’s Projection: .425/.830/0.4/22.5/4.4/3.8/1.1/0.3/2.4 :36
$5 Kyle Korver, ATL SG, SF Off both ankle and elbow surgeries, it’s tough to see him replicating his ridiculous 3PT% or minutes played.  I’ll let someone else grab him, and when the minutes look a little more stable, maybe venture some buy low offers.
Slim’s Projection: .470/.890/2.7/11.5/3.8/2.7/0.7/0.3/1.4 :32
$5 Thaddeus Young, BKN SF, PF Tough season for the Impaler in 14-15, and it looks like the treys are mostly gone and his FT% became catastrophic.  Come for the out-of-position steals, stay for the nickname.
Slim’s Projection: .475/.665/0.5/14.0/6.1/1.7/1.4/0.3/1.5 :30
$5 Joe Johnson, BKN SG, SF Upped his REB and AST last year, while keeping the TO mad low.  With Jack not really a creator or a 3PT shooter, I could see a lot of O running through Johnson’s hands.
Slim’s Projection: .430/.810/1.6/14.0/4.1/3.5/0.6/0.2/1.7 :32
$5 Jarrett Jack, BKN PG, SG The Pts/Ast should be there, but steals are too low for a G and his FG% too low for not making enough treys.  It should be his show to run, but it’s got a really low ceiling.
Slim’s Projection: .435/.860/0.7/15.5/3.6/6.3/0.9/0.2/3.1 :34
$5 Dirk Nowitzki, DAL PF, C Dirk probably has a little better upside than Timmay, but much greater downside.  The Germinator took his first step off that cliff, with career-lows virtually across the board when you throw out his rookie season.  Played under 30 MPG last year for the first time since his rookie season as well.  I was already building in another big step back in minutes, but with the Mavs already publicly saying he’s going to get a lot less, I think my original thought of 27-28 might be too high.
Slim’s Projection: .465/.880/1.2/17.0/5.7/1.8/0.5/0.4/1.1 :28
$4 P.J. Tucker, PHX SG, SF Put up 11.3/7.4/1.5/1.4/0.3 with 1.1 treys post-ASB last year, and has a little additional upside with Kieff possibly forcing his way into a trade. Sneaky value at wing.
Slim’s Projection: .440/.745/1.2/11.5/7.1/1.6/1.4/0.3/1.3 :34
$4 Arron Afflalo, NYK SG, SF Tough season last year, really disappeared on the Blazers, but the Poppycockers need offense and another point on that triangle to handle a lot of rock.
Slim’s Projection: .430/.845/1.7/15.5/3.4/2.2/0.5/0.1/1.7 :34
$4 Kobe Bryant, LAL SG, SF If this doesn’t price me out, eesh I guess I would have to get Kobe and hope for some sort of rejuvenation.  Crushing FG% and TO drain last year, falling apart physically, and a lot of youth around him that won’t make life easier.  Meh.
Slim’s Projection: .400/.830/1.3/18.0/4.7/4.3/0.9/0.2/2.8 :30
$4 Darren Collison, SAC PG George Karl has said Colly and Rondo will play some minutes together, and in a league embracing more and more combo guard sets, he could play more minutes than you’d expect.  Rondo on a 1-year deal could be moved as well.
Slim’s Projection: .460/.815/1.1/15.0/2.9/4.8/1.3/0.2/2.2 :30
$4 Joakim Noah, CHI PF, C Rumors swirling he could be coming off the bench, and is off career-lows in both FG% and FT%.  But even with Rose back a good chunk of last year, kept the dimes up.
Slim’s Projection: .465/.690/0/9.5/9.8/4.4/0.8/1.2/1.8 :30
$4 Enes Kanter, OKC C Had a pretty unreal second half after moving to OKC, but a lot of that was due to no Ibaka or Durant.  While a dubdub threat every night with good %s, AST+STL+BLK are likely to combine at under 2.
Slim’s Projection: .520/.780/0/14.0/9.0/0.9/0.4/0.4/1.9 :28
$3 Wilson Chandler, DEN SG, SF The Nugs paid him to play, but I don’t see much of a change to his 85th in per-game numbers last year,  No Lawson gets negated by Gallo commanding shots a whole year and Mudiay not drawing the same defensive pressure.
Slim’s Projection: .425/.770/1.8/14.5/5.8/1.8/0.7/0.4/1.5 :32
$3 Nikola Mirotic, CHI SF, PF In an uncrowded rotation and a guaranteed 30+ MPG, he’d approach the 50s.  Per-36s 18.1/8.8/2.1/1.2/1.2 with 2.2 treys and only 1.9 TO in his rookie season, and even though he makes a great fit at the 4 next to aging centers, I don’t think you can approach him valued too much higher, although it’s very likely someone in your draft will reach to try to look like the smartest person in the room.  Bulls 5-game finals week gives him a bump, since it’d be easy to see one of Noah/Gasol hurt at that point.
Slim’s Projection: .410/.810/1.5/14.5/6.6/1.4/0.7/0.8/1.9 :28
$2 J.J. Redick, LAC SG Combined AST+STL+BLK last year (2.4) was lower than his 3PTM (2.6)!  I wonder how often that happens for a 30+ MPG player…  Loss of Barnes to low-minutes-Pierce should help solidify a pretty nice run again in 15-16, but his 47.7 FG% likely to go down a tad.
Slim’s Projection: .465/.900/2.1/15.0/2.1/1.9/0.5/0.1/1.2 :30
$2 Zach Randolph, MEM PF, C Boring, but 1.0 STL was his highest since 09-10 and 48.7 FG% highest since 10-11.  Those aren’t reasons to project upside, but indicate he’s not going to incrementally deteriorate trying to be the same exact player.
Slim’s Projection: .470/.765/0/16.0/10.1/2.0/0.8/0.2/2.2 :32
$2 Wesley Matthews, POR SG, SF I didn’t think he’d make it top-100 coming off such a major injury and the Mavs clearly stating they’ll be cautious, but the talent pool is just too thin to not take the flier.  If he lasts this far, you’ll have to exercise patience until the second half.
Slim’s Projection: .435/.800/2.3/15.0/3.2/2.4/1.0/0.2/1.4 :32
$2 Emmanuel Mudiay, DEN PG %s and TO could be pretty bad as the raw Mudiay is handed the keys, in a MCW-esque way.  But MCW was usable most of his rookie season.  Taking the risk and the dimes at this point.
Slim’s Projection: .390/.575/0.4/14.5/4.6/5.9/1.2/0.3/3.2 :32
$2 Aaron Gordon, ORL PF Summer Ball ultimate small-sample 3 games of 21.7/11.7/2.7/1.3/1.7 and hit 6-12 treys.  FT% is a concern, but upside for some great D-stats and a trey or two.  Off jaw surgery, he may have to start with a mask which hopefully doesn’t impact his game.
Slim’s Projection: .455/.580/0.8/11.5/7.5/1.5/0.9/0.9/1.6 :28
$2 Kevin Martin, MIN SG, SF An extremely team-friendly contract for 16-17 as caps expand, he’s a dynamite trade target.  Worried he becomes a 6th man on a contender for the second half.
Slim’s Projection: .425/.890/1.8/18.5/3.2/2.4/0.8/0.1/1.9 :32
$2 Michael Carter-Williams, ML PG Massive drops in REB/AST/3PTM moving to MIL, FG% went up a tad, but the TO were still dramatically too high in lower minutes.  Greivis Vasquez will push for a few extra PG minutes.
Slim’s Projection: .420/.715/0.2/13.5/4.1/5.7/1.7/0.4/3.0 :28
$2 Patrick Patterson, TOR PF, C How the Raptors play their big men has been a big topic of discussion in the comments, and while I don’t see PIt-Pat playing huge minutes, I think he gets to 28-29 after 26:20 last year, and he finished top-100 in 9-cat metrics.
Slim’s Projection: .455/.760/1.3/9.0/5.8/2.1/0.8/0.5/0.8 :28
$2 Otto Porter, WAS SF 1.6/1.1/0.8 AST/STL/BLK last year in per-36s show some limited upside, but he’s going to play a boatload of minutes.  Worth a shot.
Slim’s Projection: .440/.730/1.1/10.5/6.0/1.4/1.2/0.6/1.2 :32
$2 Rajon Rondo, SAC PG Speaking of worth a shot, I’d be fine with the gamble on Rondo at this point outside the top 100.  Maybe he starts hitting his FT and gets the dimes to come way back, worst case you drop him a few weeks in.
Slim’s Projection: .420/.550/0.3/8.5/4.4/6.7/1.3/0.1/2.8 :28
$2 Jusuf Nurkic, DEN C Off-season patella surgery stung, as I was hoping for a big sophomore campaign.  It’ll start slow, but I’ll gamble a later pick and try to hold through his low minutes out of the gate.
Slim’s Projection: .460/.700/0/10.0/8.8/1.2/0.8/1.4/1.6 :26
$2 Ersan Ilyasova, DET SF, PF Out of position treys is nice, but I’m not overpaying for pedestrian boards and defensive stats.
Slim’s Projection: .455/.775/1.3/13.5/5.9/1.3/0.7/0.5/1.1 :30
$2 Tony Parker, SA PG Dump the ball to Aldridge for a deep mid-range, to Kawhi on a drive or Duncan for a bank shot, it’s a nice combo of teammates to have a solid AST season in 70 games.
Slim’s Projection: .480/.780/0.5/14.0/2.0/5.0/0.5/0.1/2.0 :28
$2 D’Angelo Russell, LAL PG TO and rookie inconsistency will be really frustrating, and I see Clarkson being a bigger facilitator.
Slim’s Projection: .415/.760/1.4/13.5/4.4/3.8/1.1/0.2/3.0 :30
$1 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, DET SG KCP had a lot of nice signs in the second half – much higher FG%, took more shots inside the stripe by creating his own shot, steals went up, and 1.1 to 1.8 dimes with no change in TO.
Slim’s Projection: .410/.775/1.8/13.0/3.2/1.4/1.2/0.2/1.3 :32
$1 Mo Williams, CLE PG, SG Irving’s slow recovery is going to open huge minutes for Mo early, and he’ll even play a pretty substantial role with Kyrie back as backup PG and combo G.  He’s going to contribute more early, but will become a big guy to try and flip, especially to the Kyrie owner if you nab him before Kyrie’s owner can handcuff.
Slim’s Projection: .405/.865/1.4/13.0/2.2/4.8/0.5/0.1/2.3 :26
$1 Marcus Smart, BOS PG Boston making him only shoot threes is tanking his FG%, not enough dimes from a PG.  Steals will be nice, but I question the role especially since I’m high on IT2/3.
Slim’s Projection: .400/.720/1.4/10.0/3.8/3.2/1.9/0.4/1.5 :30
$1 Trey Burke, UTA PG Exum’s torn ACL has given Burke yet another chance, but we haven’t seen him run with a starting PG job yet in his career.  Worth a late round gamble pick.
Slim’s Projection: .390/.780/1.8/12.0/2.4/4.4/1.0/0.2/1.7 :30
$1 Roy Hibbert, LAL C Burke and Hibbert have both been failures on the opposite ends of the starting line-up the past few years, but maybe 2nd-half-collapse-Roy can do enough to warrant value this late.  Blocks should be OK again, terrible boards from a guy his size and a bad FG% make him tough to own at times.
Slim’s Projection: .450/.785/0/11.0/7.4/1.2/0.3/1.7/1.8 :28
$1 C.J. McCollum, POR PG, SG A chance to move up a tad if the opening night starter, but 15.7/3.4/2.4/1.6/0.3 in per-36 last year with 2 treys isn’t exactly teeming with potential superstardom.  I’ll likely let someone else overreach.
Slim’s Projection: .430/.810/1.8/14.0/3.2/2.4/1.4/0.2/1.8 :30
$1 Jrue Holiday, NO PG Yikes. 15 minutes a game until January.  He’s still worth drafting because he can be so good if he can play high-20 minutes after that, but man this is a tough situation to invest in.
Slim’s Projection: .440/.815/1.1/14.0/3.5/6.5/1.5/0.4/2.3 :30
$1 John Henson, MIL PF, C 2.0 blocks in only 18:20 MPG last year was crazy talk, and should easily play more this season especially with Jabari coming back slow – there aren’t any other PF options. When I’m looking for late blocks, I’m always pumped when I can snag Henson late.
Slim’s Projection: .555/.575/0/9.5/6.6/1.3/0.5/2.0/1.6 :24
$1 Avery Bradley, BOS PG, SG The only Celtics starter you can really feel good about getting 30+ MPG, he can provide a few late PTS/3PTM/STL to round out your roster.
Slim’s Projection: .435/.795/1.6/14.0/3.3/1.9/1.1/0.2/1.5 :32
$1 Jabari Parker, MIL SF, PF The Bucks are making it sound like they’re going to be EXTREMELY cautious with bringing Jabari along from the torn ACL, and I don’t really blame em.  Worth a gamble especially in IL leagues – with only 2-3 bench spots and no IL, he’ll be a tough hold early on.
Slim’s Projection: .480/.730/0.3/11.5/5.4/1.8/0.9/0.3/1.8 :26
$1 Jose Calderon, TOR PG Minutes cap at 26-28 hurts, but there’s not much else out there as a late source of AST/3PTM.
Slim’s Projection: .435/.880/1.3/8.0/2.8/4.3/0.6/0.1/1.6 :26
$1 Luol Deng, MIA SF, PF A full roster should help Deng be a boring last-roster-spot guy, as the battered up Heat saw Deng have a FG% drop in the second half.
Slim’s Projection: .460/.770/1.0/13.5/5.0/1.8/0.8/0.2/1.5 :32
$1 Ryan Anderson, NO PF, C Injuries have taken their toll, but he can light up a ton of treys out-of-position and nab a couple boards.  If we knew he’d be healthy all year, he’d probably be in the top 100.
Slim’s Projection: .415/.860/2.2/14.0/4.9/1.0/0.5/0.3/1.0 :28
$1 Nik Stauskas, PHI SG If the Sixers start Wroten, they’ll be in desperate need of Sauce Castillo to bury some treys, and I think his bad FG% last year was in too small a sample/inconsistent PT.
Slim’s Projection: .415/.810/1.5/10.0/2.3/1.9/0.5/0.2/1.8 :28
$1 Zaza Pachulia, DAL C Out-of-position nice AST/FT%, in-position bad boards and blocks.  Could fit a lot of builds as a backend C though…
Slim’s Projection: .460/.770/0/9.0/7.0/2.5/0.9/0.3/1.9 :26
$1 Jahlil Okafor, PHI C Going to be this year’s worst over-drafted player, offers horrible drains on FT% and TO while not blocking any shots. I guess the upside is worth the flier, but I bet he’s going to be a popular drop in standard 9-cat.
Slim’s Projection: .510/.510/0/16.5/8.6/1.5/0.6/0.8/2.4 :32
$1 Mason Plumlee, POR PF, C Super-buzzy last year after making team USA and given a role, he nosedived horrifically…  And now he has an even bigger shot!  FT% issues and foul-trouble are still a concern, as is overall consistency.
Slim’s Projection: .610/.535/0/11.5/7.7/1.0/0.9/1.0/1.8 :26
$1 Eric Gordon, NO SG I usually avoid Gordon, but if he fell this late I’d be happy.  Still only 26, can hit some treys and get assists that you won’t find with many other players ranked lower, but the obvious injury risk weighs him down.  I think his injury risk keeps him in the same range even with the Jrue news.
Slim’s Projection: .410/.800/1.9/13.0/2.6/3.6/0.8/0.2/2.0 :32
$1 Stanley Johnson, DET SF Let’s get some sexy rookie hype!  Put up a gaudy 16.2/6.8/2.0/1.8/1.0 slash in 5 appearances in summer ball, with minimal TO and hitting 57.7% from the field.  Can play multiple positions – initially off the bench – but some saucy upside.
Slim’s Projection: .420/.725/0.9/11.0/5.8/1.4/1.2/0.5/1.4 :28
$1 Jerian Grant, NYK PG Fits well as both the 1 and the 2, I just don’t know if he can be a huge NBA contributor just yet.  Minutes look to be there, which makes him worth a draft pick in 12ers.
Slim’s Projection: .415/.775/0.8/8.5/2.2/4.1/0.8/0.2/1.7 :24
$1 Ed Davis, POR PF, C He seems to be becoming the unpopular big in the Blazers’ mystery rotation, but over his last 54 games – most of last year after getting really inconsistent run early – 9.1/7.9/1.4/0.6/1.3 with virtually no TO and 60% from the field in only 23.7 MPG.  Will likely play more minutes in Portland, and scaling those numbers up will be really interesting, however it’s seeming like there’s more and more buzz for Leonard to start.  If Davis comes out of preseason the day-1 starter, he’ll move up.
Slim’s Projection: .565/.560/0/11.0/7.8/1.4/0.6/1.3/1.0 :28
$1 Jordan Hill, IND PF, C Should be able to replicate what he did last year – minus a couple of points – in what was a useful season at times.  Not “speeding” to get him though!
Slim’s Projection: .475/.720/0/11.0/7.5/1.3/0.4/0.8/1.4 :24
$1 Dennis Schroder, ATL PG In a 10-game 29:13 MPG starting sample – 14.1/3.4/7.7/0.7/0.0.  Teague is usually durable, but I expect them to play more combo G this year as a tandem.
Slim’s Projection: .425/.780/0.8/12.5/2.8/4.9/0.7/0.1/2.1 :26
$1 Greivis Vasquez, MIL PG, SG The Twerp got picked up for a lottery-protected first-rounder, but that still ain’t too cheap.  Will challenge MCW for a few minutes, if not the bulk of minutes when MCW is cold.  Plus can play some combo 2.
Slim’s Projection: .415/.810/1.3/9.5/2.4/4.2/0.6/0.1/1.8 :24
$1 Timofey Mozgov, CLE C Healthcare.Mozgov was solid last season, but he plays such low minutes…  He’ll be fine, but offers no upside.
Slim’s Projection: .565/.720/0/10.5/6.8/0.8/0.4/1.2/1.5 :26
$1 Tony Wroten, PHI PG, SG Polar opposite player, Wroten is off a partially torn ACL and might not even start. Then there’s the awful %s and TO.  I expect him to take less 3s since he’s awful from deep, but then again Noel and Okafor are paint guys for a really weird offensive outlook.  Given PG has dried up, I’d take a last-round flier and see what happens.
Slim’s Projection: .405/.650/0.8/14.5/2.8/4.9/1.4/0.2/3.3 :28
$1 Justin Anderson, DAL SF More wing rookie nookie, Anderson wouldn’t be nearly this high if it weren’t for vets Parsons and Matthews recovering from injuries.  Mr. Anderson should get a lot of run, especially early.  My name is Neo!
Slim’s Projection: .415/.770/0.9/8.5/3.7/1.3/0.7/0.2/1.4 :24
$1 Dwight Howard, HOU PF, C I’ve utterly ignored him for years now, and nothing changes this season. Off several injuries and a disappearance of blocks.
Slim’s Projection: .580/.535/0/15.5/10.2/1.2/0.7/1.4/2.8 :30
$1 Kelly Olynyk, BOS C Slim disagrees with me on this one, but I think Olynyk is the only Boston big worth taking a shot on.  Since he can stretch the floor he can fit small ball line-ups, and as a starter last year, 13 games at 26 minutes per for 11.2/5.8/1.6/1.0/0.5.
Slim’s Projection: .470/.710/1.0/10.0/4.9/1.8/0.9/0.6/1.6 :22
$1 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, CHA SF Pretty boring, but has improved his FT% and can give you some out-of-position boards.
Slim’s Projection: .470/.715/0/11.5/7.2/1.5/0.7/0.7/1.2 :30
$1 Omer Asik, NO PF, C Should give you another season of 25-26 minutes, 8/10 with almost a block.  Meh.
Slim’s Projection: .525/.595/0/7.5/10.0/0.8/0.4/0.7/1.3 :26
$1 Marcus Morris, DET SF, PF Might be a better pick than StanJo in a deeper league, I think he’s the starter at SF out of the gate, then swings to some backup PF. Career-bests in Pts/Reb while tying his career mark in treys in 14-15.
Slim’s Projection: .430/.690/1.5/11.5/5.8/2.1/0.9/0.3/1.0 :30
$1 Kyle O’Quinn, NYK PF, C He could find himself starting some games at the 4, but either way should pick up solid backup PF/C minutes as they ease Porzingis in.  Expanded 3PT game and a nice FT% has him a very solid per-36 player.
Slim’s Projection: .480/.740/0.4/7.5/4.4/1.6/0.7/1.1/1.1 :20
$1 Dion Waiters, OKC SG, SF Will pick up a lot of second unit minutes at wing, and mop up in junk time.  Might not be rosterable all year, but a nice streamer in projected blowout matchups.
Slim’s Projection: .400/.710/0.8/10.5/2.1/2.2/0.9/0.3/1.4 :26
$1 Gerald Henderson, POR SG, SF Dealing with a congenital hip issue, maybe the Blazers don’t end up starting him after all and go with McCollum.  But a few minutes should be there on a team that needs offense.
Slim’s Projection: .435/.810/0.5/12.5/3.6/2.4/0.6/0.3/1.6 :28
$1 Tony Allen, MEM SG, SF A steals-only specialist, he peaked to 2.0 per last year.  More in the streaming class, but can fit a lot of builds as a last pick.
Slim’s Projection: .485/.640/0.1/8.0/4.3/1.5/1.6/0.3/1.3 :26
$1 David West, SA PF I think he gets more run than some (although Slim’s Proj looks right on), as he cleans up with the second unit.  Actually, Slim’s line would make him rank a bit higher than this rank.
Slim’s Projection: .475/.770/0/10.5/6.2/2.8/0.5/0.5/1.4 :26
$1 Frank Kaminsky, CHA C I just don’t see him being a great NBA player, even if the out-of-position 3s will be nice.  I bet he’s a “buzzy” Hornets pick a few rounds earlier.
Slim’s Projection: .425/.775/1.2/12.0/6.6/1.1/0.4/0.7/1.5 :28
$1 Kristaps Porzingis, NYK PF Love Porzingis’s career upside, hate that Phil J has said repeatedly they’ll bring him along slow.
Slim’s Projection: .440/.750/0.9/10.0/4.1/0.9/0.6/0.9/1.5 :22
$1 Courtney Lee, MEM SG, SF Overall rank last year was nice, but he started mad hot from the field.  Will get minutes and 1/2/1 3PTM/AST/STL which is nice this late.
Slim’s Projection: .455/.860/1.1/10.5/2.3/1.9/1.0/0.2/1.0 :30
$1 J.R. Smith, CLE SG, SF Never been a Smiff guy, but nice dimes and steals late.  More a streamer though – I think last year’s numbers with the Cavs were high.
Slim’s Projection: .415/.760/1.9/11.0/3.2/2.1/1.0/0.2/1.2 :26
$1 Ben McLemore, SAC SG Shocked me with a solid sophomore season, but I think cedes minutes to Collison and Belinelli off the bench.
Slim’s Projection: .430/.810/1.7/12.5/3.2/1.8/1.0/0.2/1.7 :32
$1 Langston Galloway, NYK PG, SG Nice D-League find for the Knicks, looks to be the odd man out of the Calderon/Grant/Afflalo minutes allocation.  Can still find his was into 1/3/1 3PTM/AST/STL.
Slim’s Projection: .405/.800/1.0/9.0/3.2/2.6/0.8/0.2/1.0 :24
$1 Zach LaVine, MIN PG Dynamic upside, might not see good minutes until K-Mart is dealt. Will be impossible to hold in a 12er for the whole first half, but is the oft-injured Rubio’s backup as well.
Slim’s Projection: .430/.845/0.6/8.5/2.3/2.9/0.6/0.1/1.7 :20
$1 Meyers Leonard, POR PF, C Seems to be a popular sleeper candidate, his lack of blocks really hurt.  Nice for the out-of-position treys and boards, but I think his upside is capped by no AST/STL/BLK.
Slim’s Projection: .480/.825/1.3/10.5/7.4/1.0/0.3/0.4/1.1 :26
$1 Kosta Koufos, SAC PF, C Whether he starts or comes off the bench, he’s a favorite of George Karl and should see 25+ minutes.  Will get plenty of boards and 1.5 blocks in that kind of run (Slim seems to sell the swats a tad short in his proj).
Slim’s Projection: .505/.650/0/8.5/7.8/0.7/0.5/1.2/1.2 :26

Let us know how your auction drafts go, and may you find multiple values Razzball Nation!

  1. Bryce Krispie Treats says:

    Hey JB!

    Back again for basketball! Seems bball just ended!

    Anyways, thanks again for last year and your pitching articles! always found those super helpful! Plus, you saved my baseball playoff life with that Conley pick up.

    This year ill be keeping Jimmy Butler for $12 and Wiggy for $20 in a 12 team league. I know that you named Terrance Jones as one of your biggest sleepers this year. Any other guys that we should be targeting really aggressively? Last year I took #ODG and Marc Gasol super cheap thanks to you.

    Again, thanks for everything, but Im greedy and ill keep asking for your advice. Ill be reading your articles like a basketball bible!

    Oh, and thoughts on the wolves this year? Longest playoff drought in the league. When are we going to stop rebuilding???

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:

      @Bryce Krispie Treats: Hah baseball is still going for me! Locked in a very tight roto race in my most important league. Glad conley worked out!

      #occupy! Myles Turner is high up there. Mirotic if a value, but he is getting very buzzy. Jordan Clarkson should return really good value. Def Gallinari, but like Mirotic, is getting a little buzzy. Those are my big names.

      Haha, it’s one more year of youth, gotta trade Kevin Martin and give Wiggins a year to flourish as one of the league’s best and groom LaVine and KAT. Wouldn’t be surprised if it’s next year (16-17).

      Thanks so much man always good to hear from ya!

      • Bryce Krispie Treats says:

        @JB Gilpin: Hey, sorry, but one LAST baseball question…

        I need to stream here and I have all 6 of my moves left. Should I wait til Sunday and pick up Tropeano, Moore, Happ… Those moves are pending (stupid waiver system)?

        Im just thinking these guys because they will be going against division winners (Tex, Tor, Cin) who will be sitting their regular players. Thoughts? (obviously Cin didnt win their division, but Happ is a good start).

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:

          @Bryce Krispie Treats: Hah any time! Oh yeah great call! Only issue is you never know how long their leashes will be. I imagine Happ will go deep either way, but Moore could come out early. Def like all 3 of those though

    • Brian says:

      JB, how if at all would these values differ in an 11 team league with 11 starters each rather than 10? I figure it is about equivalent to a 12 team league with standard settings but we would be adding an extra utility spot. How would that change things? And what would you want the extra utility player to be? Thanks

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:

        @Brian: So these are for 12 team 13 spots (10 starting), so your league starts 11 then how deep is the bench? If it’s 3-4 bench spots then yeah it’s about the same. A little more money up top going for the big ticket guys

  2. Hoffa says:

    Great list once again!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:

      @Hoffa: Appreciate it man! Still got pre-season which will shuffle a few things, but I’m pumped for some real NBA basketball on the court!

  3. Slimbo says:

    Give up K Thompson, Conley and Jefferson to get curry or cousins? My team can take the hit I have to many keepers

    We keep 8

    Got Leonard, Griffin, Thompson, Whiteside, Bledsoe, Oladipo, Teague, Conley, Jefferson, Ariza, Mirotic, Monroe, Middleton or Dieng


    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:

      @Slimbo: Whoa yeah that’s a good stable to keep from!

      I think i would only do it for Curry. I don’t think cousins and Thompson are enough apart to give that team two more keepers. But the Curry one would be nasty

      • Slimbo says:

        @JB Gilpin:

        Thanks I’ll give it a try

        Sad to see gob gob ranked so high ughhhh

        Ended up giving Melo and gobert for oladipo and Bledsoe last year

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:

          @Slimbo: Hah yeah Gobert is a monster for a lot of people. Yeah that was a solid deal last year for sure, you gotta go for the gold every season!

  4. dan-o1 says:

    are there auction leagues here and do they end like the normal h2h. sounds fun to me, more discipline and strategy involved,no?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:

      @dan-o1: Nah we don’t do auction for the RCLs because we want it all defaults so it’s easy to set up and an even playing field. Yup, more strategy, but the drafts def go longer

  5. Dirk's Digglers says:

    Razzup JB … Do the values change for 14 teamer and if $100 budget would you just halve values?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:

      @Dirk’s Digglers: Yup approximately. So how I calculate everything is I have 156 guys ranked and $2400 on the board (12 teams @ $200 each w 13 roster spots). So in a 14, there are more players that would need $1-$2 bids but more money on the table. The top guys shouldn’t change too much, the mid round and late guys get bumped up more

  6. kai says:

    Just flipped Korver ($12) for Terrence Jones ($11) in my 10 team keeper league. I think that’s a great value for Jones, especially since I am punting ft%. Really going to need to overpay for a PG that shoots 3s though

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:

      @kai: HOLY CRAP! Awesome move. I’m pretty worried about Korver – older and off two major surgeries.

      What PG are on the board? I’m sure you can find some, even if it’s not the elite types

      • kai says:

        @JB Gilpin:

        I’m sure all the top-tier and mid-tier guys are being kept. these guys are for sure up for bid:
        Conley, Mudiay, Monta, Russell, Clarkson, Mo Williams, CJ McCollum, Kendall Marshall 🙁

        Might try to flip Rubio for someone like Lowry :/

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:

          @kai: Even as the #1 Rubio lover, def would rather Lowry. Still a nice group there, you could get Conley then Williams and McCollum later and that’s a good stable for 3s, especially if McCollum hits

          • kai says:

            @JB Gilpin:
            thanks yeah, that should be an ok strategy
            i am hoping that someone tries to redraft Chris Paul. but i’ll know immediately if that’s happened

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:

              @kai: Cool sounds like a plan!

  7. HowdyDo says:

    JB, I know it’s a broad subject but can you give me the cliffs notes version of why you like Stars and Scrubs, and for like a $200 budget in a 12 man 15 roster (5 bench) 9-cat Yahoo league how much you’re spending on the two elites you mentioned and how much on the mid-tier? I always compete pretty hard but my balanced team approach rarely gets me to the promise land. Also one sentence on preferred punt strategy and me continue love u long time.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:

      @HowdyDo: Sure, so I guess the broad answer is both the top-10 I think have a big differentiation from the rest and while providing those elite stats they’re also safer bets than mid-range guys. It’s also easier having 5-6 $1 guys you like that if they don’t hit, you are easier to make grabs on the wire.

      I like balanced teams stat wise, but in the auction I’ll go heavy and probably pair two studs.

      I’ll always punt TO if anything, since then I’m likely rostering a lot of guys with heavy usage and a lot of rock in their hands.

      Haha love u long time too!

  8. Dirk's Digglers says:

    What’s your thoughts on this team for auction league punting points, assists and free throws but trying to absolutely lock up the other 6 cats?
    G – DGreen, Middleton, Tucker, JRSmith
    F – Draymond, TJones, Carroll, Covington
    C – Drummond, Jordan
    Res – Clarkson, Gordon, PitPat

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:

      @Dirk’s Digglers: Man that’s a lot of categories to punt… Yeah FG% should be a win every week, but as a non-punter myself I would feel really uneasy giving up 3 cats a week out of the gate. Guessing Dray/Drumm were first two picks? Feels like a lot of value was passed on in the draft

      • Dirk's Digglers says:

        @JB Gilpin: it was an auction JB … even did better in my last one … CJ instead of JR and Dieng, Mirotic and Nerlens instead of the 3 reserves with $18 still left to spend from $100 budget (if I’d know that would have been able to upgrade on CJ by getting better PG earlier on) … it’s interesting when I throw the original starting team into BBM punting those 3 cats gives a team value of $253 in $100 14 team league as compared to $130 regular value if not punting (according to BBM that’s 4 1st rounders, 3 2nd rounders and 3 3rd rounders based on punting those cats last year) … because my strategy values these players very differently then I can get that value within budget (for example Gobert has similar value in these settings as Jordan and Drummond but going for nearly twice the price in every mock I’ve done and that extra money going basically for free throws and a slight edge in block) … I know it means best you can do is 6-3 but I also can’t see how this team can lose 2 of those 6 cats in a given week so should win matchups week in week out or at worst lose 4-5 … put that together over the course of 50 odd matchups and you are at or near the top of the table … I won my league last year and looking for a different strategy this time around for fun and the analytics seem to suggest this could work … I’ll let you know at the end of the season!

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:

          @Dirk’s Digglers: Oh damn yeah that other draft was crazy! But yeah in an auction I support punting much more, I guess I should’ve remembered which post this comment was on! Lol.

          I keep saying I’m going to try a punt team, but the only auction I do is the REL and in snakes I always end up seeing value in well-rounded picks and people tend to reach for the punt guys in snakes… Let me know how this team does man!

  9. JoeMorgan'sMustache says:

    Hey JB thanks for all the baksetball stuff. Have have a question for you my man. 16 team…we can keep up to 5. Right now I have 4 that I think are locks. Gay $36…I know the price may be a bit high but he is always good and playoffs are 4/4/4…so a few extra bucks I can live with. Greek $16, Bledsoe $14, and Covington $5. Now my question is on my 5th….Bosh would be $37, Dieng $21, or Patrick Patterson for $5…not sure either of those are a 5th. If I don’t make any trades currently leaning on keeping 4 and just using the extra cash in the draft. Although, some of the prices do get a bit silly due to supply and demand. So, I guess my question is…what would you do man? Thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:

      @JoeMorgan’sMustache: Thanks for stopping by man!

      Yeah in a 16er that price is fair. And yeah with 3 values like that you can afford a higher $ guy like Gay.

      Yup with keepers you have to always assume unkept guys go for well higher than average since teams have values in their keepers. I know it’s a tad pricy, but I’m biting the bullet and keeping Bosh. It’s a little pricey, but in a 16er that gives you a really good core and you don’t have to chase contracts in the draft. Any time!

  10. Brian says:

    JB, are these auction values calculated by putting the projections for each player into a value system or just generic values? I wonder because they seem to be what I would think the players should actually cost and no sites seem to offer an actual auction calculator that I can find. Thanks and great work.


    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:

      @Brian: Well I guess it’s more “generic” as you put it, as Slim’s projections don’t always mirror my ranks.

      How I handle auction ranks is value breaks and differences on tiers, then add up all the values to cover 156 players bought (12*13) and $2400 for 12er leagues, which is the league size of our fan leagues.

      The issue with an auction calculator, is auctions are always different the moment they start. I’m sure somewhere, someone has attempted to make one factoring in all the previous buys and how much to spend on the next player, but there’s just so many factors that would have to be calculated in that.

      Thanks for dropping by!

  11. MIchael Zierolf says:

    Pau Gasol keeper at $30

    Jeff Teauge keeper at $32

    Kemba keeper at $38

    Any Worth keeping in a 14 team dynasty league?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:

      @MIchael Zierolf: Hmmm, Teague is definitely the closest. Who else are you keeping? gasol is in the running too if your other keepers arent costing you much

      • zman10 says:

        @JB Gilpin:

        Currently keeping the following below… thinking about adding Teague

        Pau Gasol – $30
        Michael Carter- Williams – $11
        Nikola Vucevic – $25
        Draymond Green – $6
        Isaiah Thomas – $12
        Nikola Mirotic – $5

        Total= $89
        Remaining salary – $111

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:

          @zman10: Yeah I’d keep Teague, and really considering throwing back MCW at $11. Maybe he’s worth one last year on that deal to see if he can start producing without awful %s and TO

  12. zman10 says:

    Great thanks for the help.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:

      @zman10: Any time!

  13. Brian says:

    JB, how if at all would these values differ in an 11 team league with 11 starters each rather than 10? I figure it is about equivalent to a 12 team league with standard settings but we would be adding an extra utility spot. How would that change things? And what would you want the extra utility player to be? Thanks

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